AML Attachment 5 ICX Market Strategy Edit Tanjim

8/3/2019 AML Attachment 5 ICX Market Strategy Edit Tanjim

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AML Infotech

Attachment – 5 of Appendix 1

Market Strategy

a. Detail of market assessment

b. Strategy for marketing

c. Contingency plan of applicant (operator) for changed market scenario

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October, 2008 23,662,278.65November, 2008 43,278,329.45

December, 2008 39,979,232.52January, 2009 38,859,960.42

February, 2009 35,597,395.85March, 2009 36,253,019.73

April, 2009 32,172,275.39

May, 2009 32,853,549.60

June, 2009 32,315,993.08

July, 2009 33,706,139.52

August, 2009 32,713,515.51

September, 2009 34,702,218.49

October, 2009 43,433,369.00

November, 2009 43,882,422.00

December, 2009 34,597,444.23

January, 2010 34,897,262.28

February, 2010 33,796,222.64

March, 2010 36,077,212.41

April, 2010 35,189,794.46

May, 2010 36,853,183.14

June, 2010 34,154,665.99July, 2010 32,785,456.53

August, 2010 30,221,651.71September, 2010 33,396,507.00

October, 2010 30,964,096.60November, 2010 33,238,511.22

December, 2010 31,281,182.22January, 2011 33,453,140.94

February, 2011 29,457,185.65March, 2011 32,676,000.37

April, 2011 30,317,849.85

May, 2011 31,365,640.35 International Outgoing TrafficJune, 2011 29,780,274.21

July, 2011 32,122,687.16

August, 2011 31,258,929.08

September, 2011 26,201,704.75



AML Infotech Ltd.

Month

Traffic

(Minute)January, 2011 916,847,025February, 2011 853,971,639March, 2011 952,038,266April, 2011 964,310,021May, 2011 1,012,273,737June, 2011 1,017,344,321July, 2011 1,017,344,321August, 2011 1,059,270,631September,2011 1,033,526,939

Domestic Interoperator Trafffic

The public telephone network and the equipment that is considered as the default mother infrastructure setup for the business in most parts of world. Availability of a telephone and access to alow-cost, high-quality worldwide network is considered to be essential in modern art of technology(telephones are even expected to work when the power is off). Anything that would jeopardize this isusually treated with suspicion. There is, however, a paradigm shift beginning to occur since more andmore communications is in digital form and transported via packet networks such as IP, ATM cells,and Frame Relay frames. Since data traffic is growing much faster than telephone traffic, there hasbeen considerable interest in transporting voice over data networks (as opposed to the moretraditional data over voice networks).



AML Infotech Ltd.

1.1 RELEVANT MARKET ASSESSMENT

The telecommunication market is integrated one but operates in two levels – international and locallevel. In developing country context the growth rate is potential skewed in positive direction due tochanging adaptive life status of the inhabitants. Though both the levels are not always show positivedirection. In certain case the international growth rate is higher if the local market is saturated. Theopposite scenario may occur with the development pace of the country or it is a case of developedcountry where technological innovation has gained huge popularity and resulted in massive adoption.

1.1 Global scenario

Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) has been gaining high popularity among the users for its low costadvantage. According to a new report by Infotics Research, the market reached a US$ 48.9 billion in2010 and is on track to triple to US$ 140.9 billion by 2015.

1.2 Market demand

The international calls made to Bangladesh are mainly from UK, USA, Canada, the Middle Easterncountries, Korea, Malaysia, Italy, Australia, Sweden, Singapore etc. These are generally personallevel communication. On the other hand, the outbound

At a conservative 10% or a global growth rate the potential market demand for 2010 is million minutesper day. So the untapped demand for 2012 is calculated a more than 80 million minutes per day. If new operators along with 3 existing companies other than BTCL are permitted to operate in themarket then each company is estimated at more than 6 million minutes per day subject to newnumber if IGW licensee.

Table 3.5 Bangladesh Outgoing Traffic. of 18

0 2 4 6 8

Million Minutes/Month

India

Europe

M.East

Singapore

Malaysia

Pakistan

A.Pacific

BANGLADESH OUTGOING TRAFFIC



AML Infotech Ltd.

Table 3.5 above shows the present scenario related outgoing traffic from Bangladesh. Most of thetraffic is going to destinations of India, Middle East countries, Malaysia, Singapore, Europe andPakistan. Although the traffic volume is comparatively smaller as compared to the outgoing traffic fromcountries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, its minutes is still at premium since there are lessnumber of player into this destinations.

1.3 Bangladesh Telecom Users Analysis

Bangladesh, one of the fastest growing mobile markets, ended 2010 with 68.6 million activesubscribers, but it only took a month to reach the landmark 70 million mark in January as two leadingoperators touching new milestones.

The total number of active subscribers reached 70.34 million at the end of January, according toBangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC).

Telecom Operators in Market:

Grameenphone, jointly owned by Telenor and Grameen Telecom, has retained top position. Theleading telecom operator, which added 6.7 million new customers alone last year, has crossed the 30-million mark to take its tally to 30.4 million.

Second-placed Banglalink made a big stride as it roped in 20 million subscribers.

Robi, owned by Axiata (Bangladesh), a joint venture between Axiata Group Berhad, Malaysia andNTT DOCOMO, Japan, stood third with 12.6 million subscribers.

Indian mobile giant Airtel, which made formal launch in December after its parent company BhartiAirtel bought controlling stakes into Warid, closed January with 4.184 million users.

Citycell, the oldest operator in the country, and also the lone CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access)technology-based mobile phone operator, is placed at fifth with 1.858 million customers, despitelosing nearly one lakh customers.

Bottom-placed Teletalk ended the first month of the year with 1.204 million customers, according toBTRC.

Last year, six mobile operators -- one state-run and five others private -- altogether sold 16.21 millionnew connections, 30.91 per cent up on 2009, according to the regulator. In 2009, the number of activesubscribers grew 17.45 per cent and 29.88 per cent the year before.

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Operator Subscriber GrameenPhone 30,400,000Banglalink 20,000,000Robi (AkTel) 12,600,000

AirTel 4,184,000Citycell 1,858,000Teletalk 1,204,000

Current subscriber of Mobile Operators in Bangladesh

Forecasted Mobile Phone Users of Bangladesh

Experts say the country's mobile subscription could reach 120 million within the next few years, whilethe operators are vying to target the largely untapped rural population.

Although the mobile penetration rate stands at a little over 40 per cent, the growth largely confines tourban areas.

1.4 Incoming and Outgoing call Projection

Projection methodology: Company has projected the incoming and outgoing calls for Bangladeshfrom the established number of Phone Users adjusted to achieve Growth Rates and differentscenarios from Industry experts.

It is estimated that 0.03 is standard Erlang/User As per ITU-T and a Study done by Kayani andDymond for World Bank (Technical Article 359). erLang is a telecommunication unit which representnetwork-wide average traffic in a particular hour. So each user in Bangladesh uses only 3% of Network capacity.

With the above assumptions our calculations shows the total minutes an IGW will be handling andNumber of E1 each IGW will need. It is also a standard assumption is that single E1 can handle up to30,000 minutes call Per Day (but normally it is considered as 20,000 minutes per E1 per day).

Industry Overview

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AML Infotech Ltd.

Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year

Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario

Subscribers(million) Penetration Subscribers (million)Penetration

2009 6.2 3.8% 6.2 3.8%

2010 (e) 6.4 3.8% 6.4 3.8%

2015 7.4 4.0% 9.0 5.0%

2020 8.7 4.2% 12.0 6.0%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Vietnam – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year

Lower growth scenario Higher growth scenario

Subscribers(million)

PenetrationSubscribers(million)

Penetration

2009 97.6 60% 97.6 60%

2010 (e) 102.0 62% 102.0 62%

2015 150.0 82% 180.0 98%

2020 175.0 86% 230.0 112%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Background notes to market forecasts

Mobile markets in Asia have continued experiencing strong growth during 2010. A total of more than2.6 billion mobile subscribers in early 2011 and an average annual growth of over 25% (excluding themost highly penetrated markets) have combined to see the Asia region with the fastest growingtelecommunications markets in the world. Overall regional penetration had reached an estimated 65%by end-2010, suggesting that there was still more room for subscriber growth across the region.Coming into 2011 there were more than 12 countries in Asia with mobile penetration levels in excessof 100%. Not surprisingly, the global financial crisis had caused some caution in mobile marketsacross the region for a while, mainly in 2009; after a pause current trends show the momentum hasquickly begun to pick up again.

Market trend in Bangladesh shows more tapping ground for operators. Because hidden competition inform of filtration of the non-active operators and push of the active ones are decreasing as more callswill be getting streamlined with the entry of more international gateway and exchange operators inBangladesh.

B. BANGLADESH TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY

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Bangladesh has made great strides economically since gaining independence in 1971, yet it remainsone of the poorest countries in the world. Economic performance has been relatively strong since1990, with annual GDP growth averaging 6%; the country has seen an emergence of progressiveentrepreneurs, and good macroeconomic management has kept inflation in the single digits. Recentreform actions in fiscal management, governance, state-owned enterprises, banking,

telecommunications, and energy have also shown encouraging results. Foreign direct investmentflows have supported infrastructure, energy, and export-oriented manufacturing.

The telecommunication industry of Bangladesh possesses great potential. Communication process isno longer a thing of the future for the citizens of Bangladesh. At the very inception, phone usage wasexpensive and could only be afforded by the affluent. Well-established foreign and local companieshave invested heavily for the development of the telecommunication infrastructure of Bangladeshthereby creating a competitive environment, which has eventually led to drastic reduction in tariffs.

There are approximately over 70 million cellular and more than1 million fixed phone line subscribers inBangladesh as of June 2011.

BACKGROUND AND STRUCTURE:

Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone (T&T) Department was formalized under the Ministry of Postsand Telecommunications (MoPT) to offer telecommunication services throughout the country after theindependence in 1971. However, T&T under ordinance in 1976 and 1979 underwent transformationsand was later named BTCL (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board). Although BTCL had therole of both the regulator and the operator till 1995, the government transferred the regulatoryauthority from BTCL to Ministry of Post and Telecommunications. In 2001, under a new law, theBangladesh Telecommunications Act 2001, the regulatory authority was once again transferred to anewly formed body – Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC).

Before the initiation of cellular technology in Bangladesh, BTCL has been a state monopoly in thetelecommunications sector of Bangladesh for decades, before some significant changes wereplanned in the nation’s Fourth Five-Year Plan (1990-1995).

In 1989, Bangladesh Rural Telecom Authority (BRTA) became the first private operator in Bangladeshafter they received a license to operate rural telecom systems in 198 thanas in Northern Bangladesh.With additional 16 new PSTN operators till 2007, mobile phone operators including PBTL (1989),Sheba (Banglalink), Grameen Phone and TMIB (AkTel) in 1996, TeleTalk in 2004 and lastly WaridTelecom in 2006 taken over by Indian giant AirTel, has joined the telecom business in Bangladesh.

REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT AND LIBERALIZATION DEVELOPMENTS

After the formation of BTRC, regulatory challenges have significantly been contained within theBangladeshi telecom market. As per the 1998 National Telecom Policy, the entire sector (fixed line,mobile and the internet) was liberalized for private investment, with the government asking BTRC toensure a level playing field for all telecom operators. The principal task of the BTRC was to issuelicenses to operators, allocate interconnection frequencies and fix tariffs for different telecom services.

BTCL, which dominates the fixed network and now shares a piece of the mobile sector pie through itsTeleTalk subsidiary, has been unable to meet the demanding increase of interconnect capacity withthe new PSTN and mobile operators. As a result, telecom operators continue to suffer from the

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inability to connect additional phones to the national switched network and to meet the customers’demand of the much awaited expansion of the international gateway.

WIRE LINE MARKET OVERVIEW – REQUIRING IMMEDIATE EXPANSION OF IGW AND ICX

Given a vast population of 165 million – the 6th highest in the world – and teledensity (approx. 40%),the Bangladeshi telecom market shows tremendous potential for growth. As of June 2005, theincumbent BTCL dominated the modest (<1% penetration) wire line market, with total subscribers of ~1 million and a market share of >99%. With the new initiative from BTRC to award regional licensesfor 5 regions across country under a new PSTN licensing regime in 2004 and with the opening up of the Central Zone which controls over 70% of the business, some leading PSTN operators whoobtained licenses, includes Rankstel, National Phone, Dhaka Phone who are among the top three of the existing sixteen PSTN licensees, have had some regulatory problems with BTRC, now they againallowed to start their operation.

As the country struggled to put an effective telephone network in place, the fixed market experienceda major setback in 2010. The regulator shut down five of the country’s fixed-line operators because of their alleged involvement in illegal VoIP traffic. This saw a huge number of fixed subscribersdisconnected. Twelve months later the five operators were still suspended and the number of fixedlines in operation had almost halved. By July 2011, after 16 months of stalemate, it appeared thatsome form of resolution was at hand. But the overall damage to the market will certainly take sometime to repair.

WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW – REQUIRING IMMEDIATE EXPANSION OF IGW AND ICX

Mobile penetration has already exceeded fixed line and is driving the bulk of the growth in terms of incremental subscribers. According to Morgan Stanley research, mobile penetration can reach 45-55% within the next five years, although ARPU will likely fall below US$ 3-4 given the low GDP per

capita and an uneven distribution of income.

With the entry of various telecom operators in the market, ARPU levels have been affected and areexpected to decline in the future years. ARPU levels are projected to decrease by 15% in 2012 and2013. Now, with the entry of the new IGW operators like Company Ltd., huge volume of pending callscan now be handled more easily bringing in more revenue to the ANS (telecom operators) directlycausing further reduction in ARPU levels.

Bangladesh Wireless competitive landscape

Grameen Phone GSM AXIATA (ROBI) GSM

Orascom (Banglalink) GSM TeleTalk GSM Pacific Bangladesh Telecom Limited (CityCell) CDMA Airtel GSM

Source: BTRC website

Mobile Phone Subscribers in Bangladesh

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The total number of Mobile Phone Active Subscribers has reached 75.484 million at the end of May2011.

The Mobile Phone subscribers are shown below:

Operators Active SubscribersGrameen Phone Ltd. (GP) 33.261Orascom Telecom Bangladesh Limited (Banglalink) 20.047Robi Axiata Limited (Robi) 14.350Airtel Bangladesh Limited (Airtel) 4.911Pacific Bangladesh Telecom Limited (Citycell) 1.747Teletalk Bangladesh Ltd. (Teletalk) 1.166

Total 75.484

*Subscribers in Millions

** The above subscribers' numbers are declared by the mobile operators.

b.Strategy for Marketing:ICX is connected with local entities.IGWs, ANSs (Mobile operators, PSTN, IPTSP

etc.). They are as follows:

a. IGWsb. Mobile operatorsc. PSTN &d. IPTSP

a. IGWs: We will be connected with all the IGWs with adequate capacity. ThoughIGWs will route the 90% traffic equally among all ICXs, they will have 10% in their hand. Wewill try to attract that 10% also along with our due share. It will enrich our balance sheet.

b. Mobile operators: There are 2 types of business with the mobile operators – bydomestic interoperator call and outgoing International call. We hope to install ahuge capacity for traffic handling which will easily cope up with all the requirement.The mobile operators are concerned about the domestic traffic specially on anyoccasion as there comes traffic thurst, which is several times than normal traffic.

We have designed in that consideration. Another major issues from Mobileoperators is the quality of their outgoing international call as all the routes do nothave good quality. Some IGW may use cheaper routes compromising the quality,we will check that and send the outgoing traffic to the IGW having better route for that specific prefix. We will check CSSR,ASR & ACD to route a traffic. Of coursewe prefer TDM routes rather than IP routes.

c. PSTN: we will connect all the PSTNs, hope they will do better in coming days.d. IPTSP: We need to connect IPTSP also. There is hope that they will be able to

generate traffic soon.

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Marketing Plan:As there are 3 ICXs running, we need to have more focus on the target. We have the

following marketing policy:Quality: our first criteria for marketing will be quality route. We will not compromise aboutquality. Our NOC and back office will strive to maintain best quality for Bangladeshtermination and also international outgoing call thru proper IGWs.

Swapping deal:Some IGWs want outgoing traffic against sending incoming traffic to ICX. We will play amarketing policy with them by swapping deal as we will have to carry outgoing traffic also(maintaining good quality). If any IGW gives us extra incoming traffic, we will give them theextra outgoing traffic to them.

SMS, MMS and Roam Signaling services:We hope to provide SMS, MMS and Roam signaling services in future which have recentlybeen approved by BTRC.

BTRC, as part of the government’s initiative to bring in foreign investment and expertise in thetelecommunication sector, has played a significant role in planning and assisting in the operations,expansion, and management of the state-owned Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board and allthe private telecommunication operators with the vision of launching a nation-wide robust andredundant telecommunication service in Bangladesh. With the rightful intention of further strengthening the telecom sector, BTRC has recently offered the private sector to take part in the

tenders (IGW, IIG, and ICX) in order to help expand and streamline the operations of both incomingand outgoing international calls among the existing operators.

Bangladesh has been experiencing a steady growth in its economy especially in comparison to other developing nations. Bangladesh achieved GDP growth 6.3% in FY2010, highest in last 5 years, againover these 5 years it achieves consistent growth rate around 5.5%. The important thing to notice thatdespite of world economic downturn this achievement shows the sign of stable economy(Economicreview-2010). It indicates a steady increase in domestic and external demand. Growth in servicesector has become the main thrust sector of the economy now that transmitting rapid growth in bothmobile and PSTN usage. So the overall growth in economy and particularly growth in service sector was mirrored in Bangladesh’s telecommunication market as well, where subscriber base neared 1.0million in PSTN and crossed 32.5 million through mobile phone subscription at the end of July 2007

(BTRC website update). In view of these economic developments, Bangladesh provides ampleopportunity for lucrative investments, particularly in its telecommunications sector.

With increasing GDP growth rates (US$ 57.3 in 2005) and sustained population growth of 144.44million (2006), GDP per capita is also increasing (US$ 404 in 2005). This improvement is in turnincreasing teledensity by more than 23% (2007) and telephony penetration rates. This highlights thesignificant potential for growth present in the telecommunication market in Bangladesh.

Product/Service

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Any marketing plan involves planning out the product or service. In this particular case, it is a service,and a sophisticated one involving hardware and software, with experienced technical team. At thispoint the product will be essentially, the Voice service over the Internet and circuit switched network.The technology is already an established one and the market boom for this service has proven that itis here to stay, due to its huge cost advantage over the traditional International Dialing services

provided by the telephone companies.

As the service has to be provided under strict regulation, there is little room for product innovation.The product strategy involves assuring quality service with high ASR and MoS rate. Company plansto deploy Industry standard Class 4 Tandem Switches with highly redundant capability built-in tosystem itself. Disaster recovery site will be a Hot site sharing 50% of the load and will begeographically separate from Primary site.

In future, we will have option for developing related product options like video phone over the internet,enterprise/ business solutions, session initiation protocol (SIP) trunking, hosted VoIP services,managed IP private branch exchange (PBX) services, IP conferencing, and hosted IP contact center services and enterprise/ business solutions etc.

Product/Service Placement

Typically, normal products and services are to be taken closer to the end users for making itconvenient to purchase. This IGWS, however, is just at the finger tips of the end users, as they wouldavail the services just by their Cell/land phones.

Pricing

The pricing structure is set by the government. For an incoming international call minimum 4 cents per minute has to be charged. As per the theory of free market economy all IGWS providers will chargethe same; if anyone increases the rate none will change theirs ultimately market share of the pricehiker will be affected as customer preference will be lost. For the given price floor set by thegovernment none can reduce the rate either. On the other hand, there is no room to change the per minute rate as the charges are fixed as per the government circular.

However, all the IGWS providers in consultation with the government can change prices dependingon the situations prevailing locally and globally.

Promotion

The communication or promotion, will have to be very subtle and useful for the target audience, asend users are not our direct customers. Rather the international carriers and the local ICX are our direct customers.

For the IGW & ICX, the strategy would be mainly public relations, time to time information onproduct/service improvement, sending technical information and brochures, etc. To visibly

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demonstrate our commitment to quality service, we can arrange regular meeting and informationexchange and even facility visit for the ICX/ANS.

PR will also be maintained with the overseas carriers in the same fashion. Vertical integration can bemade possible to attract more inflow of traffic for the discretionary market pie. A consortium may becreated with the international carriers to achieve economies of scale, if possible.

However, to develop the local outgoing call market, we will play a supporting role to the ICX and theANS. In this regard, we will organize fairs, shows, sponsor events, and do direct advertising andcommunication to increase demand for outgoing calls using VOIP. The local users need to beeducated on the use and advantage of VOIP services.

Customer Care

To have a sound marketing plan in place and full service marketing services, people are key driversbehind that. A fully functional marketing department lead by a director, marketing will be made

available to the company. They will ensure marketing orientation at every level of the company. Theprofessional staffs will be drawn from people having relevant experience and academic backgroundparticularly for the service sector, and more importantly, for the IT sector. They will, in all their interaction with customers, practice and demonstrate ultimate customer care and marketing practicesfor quality assurance. At all levels, starting from technical, to finance, to customer care, toadministration, marketing orientation will be inculcated. The marketing department will carry outperiodic research to keep track with the need gaps and emerging needs and technology options anddevice plans and programs to meet need of the regulatory bodies and the customers.

Customer Care Plan:

We have collected an experienced Customer Care Team. Customer care can be in 2 ways:• Service in terms of financial and marketing: If a new IPTSP wants to know about

the system of registration with the ICX, he can know from the service desk and alsocan have the draft copy of agreements and information of deposits etc by online or physically. When a IPTSP is registered and configured in the system he can know hisoutstanding position and other information from the service desk.

• Service in terms of Technical: This is basically 24X7 support. An experienced teamwill be dedicated for this. They will have shifting duty. They will be 1st point of contactfor the service. Any technical difficulties the carriers face must be conveyed by them.They will try to solve and if they fail, they will escalate it to higher level. There will beescalation procedure and specific time for solution. Upon every problem this team

know as Network Operaton Centre (NOC) will generate a Trouble Ticket (TT) and giveit to carrier so that they can follow it anytime. Sample of TT is attached here:

Trouble Ticket

Yr.Mo. Serial

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TT No. : 0810 019Issue Date: : 30-10-11Resolve Date: : Time Required to solve the

problem: Trouble type: Critical :

Major : √

Minor :

Information :

Problem description: : calls having prefix 88 andcoming from ICXs must bereleased after reaching our

switch.

Concern wing: Core : √Data :

Transmission :

Description of solution:

We communicate with ICXabout this issue. Theyalready solved the problem.

TT issued by: : Md.

Contingency plan of applicant (operator) for changed market scenario:

As the number of ICXs is going to be increased, the marketing will be a challenge. We havemany strategies for that. Some of them are as below:

1. We will try to connect the best Gateways of the ANSs which have capacity as well asmaintains good quality with enough capacity with local switches.

2. Maintaining best quality of routes.3. 24X7 NOC and back office support.

4. Personal relationship with Mobile Operaors and IGWs.5. Improving inter operator relationship with all the stakeholders by different events.6. Supporting the stakeholders at any emergency.

Further contingencies may arise due to changing global and local price war. We shall acquire internetservices in a fashion that gives maximum price advantage for bulk usage. Proper insurance of thehardware and business will be arranged for any untoward business challenge.

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Competition may also arise from the standard telephony system with reduction of tariff. Further competition may arise with proliferation for internet connection, whereby people may use alternativePC based mode of communication like chatting, instant messaging, video call, or even free or low costphone services. To respond to such situations, regular market research will be carried out to track thetrend and prepare for contingencies and offering various cost advantageous solutions like selling bulk

talk time at discount etc.

In the business environment, situations may arise like BTCL being privatized, licensing fees revisedupwards drastically, etc. Under these scenarios, the key strategy would be continuous liaison and PRwith the policy makers and the privatization board. Advocacy with the policy makers can inform themof the business contingencies and reach to a solution suitable for all the parties. Further, contingencyplans in terms of cost revision, downsizing, and offering diversified products will always be on thecards.

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AML Attachment 5 ICX Market Strategy Edit Tanjim

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