AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific

AMI Market Opportunities & Challenges in Asia Pacific

Presented at

World Smart Grids Seminar 2010

Seoul, South Korea

19 May 2010

Presented by

Subbu Bettadapura

Associate Director – Energy & Power

Frost & Sullivan

AMI Technology Trends & Evolution

Agenda

1

2

3

Key Industry Challenges4

AMI Benefits & Features

AMI Introduction and Value Chain

22

APAC Market Size and Cost breakdown

Key Industry Challenges4

5

Key Growth Countries and Market Dynamics6

UtilityMetering

Utility

Legacy System vs AMI Systems

Consumer

Electricity Meter

Cannot communicate

to/from consumer

One-way communication

3

Utility

AMI

BPL

RF MESH

PLC

BPL

MDMS

UtilityMDMSWANLANMeteringConsumer

CDMA

GSM

HAN

In home

Display

Two-way

communication

Smart

Meter

AMI Value chain

MDMSWide Area

Network (WAN)

Home Area

Network (HAN)Smart Meter

System Integrators

Consultants

Installation Contractors

4

Process and

store meter

data

Major Players

Itron, eMeter,

SAP

Network (WAN)

Public/Private

Network

Local Area

Network (LAN)RF mesh, PLC, BPL,

WiMax, GPRS

Network (HAN)Zigbee, Home plug

WiFi, Z-Wave,

Wavenis,

Digitalstrom

Major Players

GridConnect, Freescale,

MicroChip

Smart Meter

Data collection &

storage

Major Players

GE, Landis+Gyr, PRI,

Elster

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Major Players

Itron, Elster, SSN, EKA

Systems, Trilliant

Meter Vendors Communication Vendors IT Vendors

AMI Technology UpdateIT systems

(GPRS, GSM,

EDGE,RF,

NetworkCommunication & application servers

Data Management Server( Outage,

Tariffs, Geography)

5

EDGE,RF,

Power line)

Meter Management Meter Data Management


Advanced Metering Benefits

Reduced meter reading

errors

Reduced billing errorsReduced meter

reading costs

Reduced Energy bills

6

Prepayment option

Physical privacy for consumers

Half Hourly usage data

AMI Operational Benefits

7

Avoided meter reading costs and field services are the two main benefits of AMI

Source: Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation, New York State Electric and Gas Company

AMI Features

22

33

44

55

66

11

Remote reading and also ability to manually readRemote reading and also ability to manually read

Remote connection and disconnectionRemote connection and disconnection

Two-way communication and Communication path to in-home displayTwo-way communication and Communication path to in-home display

Visual display on meterVisual display on meter

Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)

Record at least Hourly Usage of dataRecord at least Hourly Usage of data

8

66

77

Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)

Tamper detectionTamper detection

88

99

1010

1111

Outage notificationOutage notification

Prepayment optionPrepayment option

Time of useTime of use

Load ControlLoad Control

1212 Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation) Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation)

AMI Technology Evolution

Time of use

Demand Response

Energy Management Systems

Real time

Outage Notification

Remote Connect/ Disconnect

9

2011 2012 20132010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

Remote Meter Configuration

In-Home Display

Time of useReal time communication

Disconnect

Remote meter reading

AMI – Communication Technology Options

Communication Options

Communication Options

GPRS, GSM, SMS,GPRS, GSM, SMS, RF Mesh RF Mesh WIFI, DSLWIFI, DSLPower Line Power Line

Communication is a vital factor for smart meters

10

GPRS, GSM, SMS,WIMAX, UMTS

GPRS, GSM, SMS,WIMAX, UMTS

RF Mesh NetworkRF Mesh Network

WIFI, DSLWIFI, DSLPower Line Carriers

Power Line Carriers


Wavenis

Open

Source

Alliance

Technology Trends – Communication Technology Penetration

AMI AMI GPRSGPRS

RFRF

2010 2015 2020

11

AMI Technologies

AMI Technologies

WiMAXWiMAX

PLCPLC

Low Medium High


Advanced Metering - Industry Challenges

Risk on information security clouding consumers judgment

Fear of losing power over load control by the utilities

12

Lack of Standard Protocols and Interoperability

Initial upfront cost and cost recovery


Issue of ”Stranded Assets” and evolving technology

AMI – Roll out Cost breakdown for Projects

13

Smart Meter and its installation form the majority of cost involved in AMI implementation


Asia Pacific AMI Market Size

• Total APAC AMI market is expected

to generate a cumulative demand of

41 million meter units by 2017

• The market is estimated to generate

revenues of about US$12.5 billion

from 2009 through 2017

14

from 2009 through 2017

• The market is estimated to have a

CAGR of 69.32% for the period from

2009-2017

• The growth will be fuelled by AMI

activity in Australia, New Zealand,

South Korea, Japan and Taiwan


Asia Pacific AMI Market size (USD million)

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year

USD million

0.00%

100.00%

200.00%

300.00%

400.00%

500.00%

600.00%

700.00%

% growth

Asia Pacif ic AMI Market Size (USD millions) % grow th

2010 2015 2020

Drivers

Drivers and Restraints - Australia

Government Mandate

2010 2015 2020

Rapidly changing

technology

Restraints

15

High Medium Low

Impact

Lack of standards

Rising cost to consumers

Enhanced Customer

information

Operational Efficiency


Australia

Australia AMI market size - 32.6 million USD, 2009

3.26

16

� Victorian government is at the

forefront of AMI roll out

� First to mandate the rollout of

smart meters across the state

� Victoria and New South Wales

are scheduled to complete the

rollout by 2013


13.04

Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue

2010 2015 2020

Drivers

Drivers and Restraints – New Zealand

Demand side participation

2010 2015 2020

Rapidly changing

technology

Restraints

17

High Medium Low

Impact

Lack of standards

Ageing workforce

Compliance deadline

of 2015

Highly competitive &

Deregulated market


New Zealand

New Zealand AMI market size - 35 million USD, 2009

3.5

18

14


� AMI rollout not regulated by

the government

� An aggressive market-led

rollout

� The main network

technologies being deployed

are RF mesh and GPRS


2010 2015 2020

Drivers

Drivers and Restraints – Taiwan

Reduced energy wastage

2010 2015 2020

Regulation

Restraints

19

High Medium Low

Impact

Lack of standards

Lack of funding

Reduction in peak load

Reduction in Green House

Gas emissions


Taiwan

Taiwan AMI market size - 0.25 million USD, 2009

0.03

20

� Taiwan moving at a fast pace

for smart meters and related

components

� Plans to enter the

international market with its

products in the next 3-4 years

� AMI is in its pilot stage in

Taiwan currently

0.1



2010 2015 2020

Drivers

Drivers and Restraints – South Korea

Energy Security

2010 2015 2020

Rapidly changing

technology

Restraints

21

High Medium Low

Impact

Lack of standards

Lack of private funding

Boosting technology export

Smart grid implementation


South Korea

South Korea AMI market size - 25 million, 2009

2.5

22

� South Korea plans to start

installing smart meters

nationwide by 2012

� Lagging behind other

developed nations in smart

meter deployment (only 4%

penetration)

� Power Line Carrier (PLC) is

the main technology being

deployed

10



2010 2015 2020

Drivers

Drivers and Restraints – Japan

Infrastructure for EVs

2010 2015 2020

No clarity on technology to

deploy

Restraints

23

High Medium Low

Impact

Efficient grid

Vertically integrated power

suppliers

Developing new industries

and enhanced services

Integration of renewable

energy into grid


Japan

� AMI activity is just beginning

Japan AMI market size 16 million USD , 2009

1.6

24

� AMI activity is just beginning

in Japan

� Kansai Electric has just started

a planned 12 million smart

meter rollout

� Tokyo Electric is doing a pilot

for 90,000 meters

� Other utilities in the early

stages of pilots/planning

6.4



Key Growth Markets – SEA/NA & Pacific

South Korea

� Market size of 3.15 billionUSD over the next 9 years

� CAGR of 71% from 2009-2017

Japan


� CAGR of 85% from 2009-2017

25

Australia


� CAGR of 70.45% from2009-2017

New Zealand

� Market size of 525 millionUSD over the next 9 years

� CAGR of 35% from 2009-2017

2017

Taiwan

� Market size of 600 millionUSD over the next 9 years

� CAGR of 137% from 2009-2017


Summary of Key Findings

The Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012The Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012

The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%

(2009-2017)

The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%

(2009-2017)

The growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long termThe growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long term

26

Thailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities for

commercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll out

Thailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities for

commercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll out

Singapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionalitySingapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionality

Some of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technology

upgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architecture

Some of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technology

upgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architecture

Major market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &

reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out

Major market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &

reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out

Thank You

27

Thank YouQ&A

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For Additional Information

Donna Jeremiah

Corporate Communications

Asia Pacific

+603 6204 5832

[email protected]

Mi Ok Lee

Corporate Communications

Asia Pacific - Korea

+82 2 6710 2033

[email protected]

29

Subbu Bettadapura

Associate Director

Asia Pacific

Energy & Power

+603 6204 5800

[email protected]

AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific

Business

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