American Tower Corporation: International Market Overvie · American Tower International Market...
Transcript of American Tower Corporation: International Market Overvie · American Tower International Market...
American Tower Corporation: International Market Overview Q1 2016
2 June 3, 2016
American Tower International Market Overview
Developing Wireless Markets Peru • India • Ghana • Uganda • Costa Rica • Nigeria
Advanced Wireless Markets Germany
Evolving Wireless Markets Mexico • Brazil • South Africa • Chile • Colombia
Note: Definitions and Data Sources Available on Last Page of Presentation
Introduction International Portfolio Overview
3 June 3, 2016
International Portfolio Overview – As of March 31, 2016
(1) Includes in-building and outdoor DAS networks, excludes Viom. (2) Represents top 10 international tenants as of the quarter ended March 31, 2016, excludes Viom.
India Germany Ghana Nigeria South Africa Uganda EMEA Brazil Chile Colombia Costa
Rica Mexico Peru Latin America
# of Sites(1) 15,361 2,028 2,126 4,717 1,927 1,393 12,191 18,113 1,212 3,765 484 8,852 618 33,044
% of 1Q16 Property Revenue 5.0% 1.1% 2.2% 4.4% 1.4% 1.1% 10.2% 8.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 6.6% 0.3% 17.6%
% of 1Q16 Property Gross Margin 3.2% 1.3% 1.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 8.0% 7.3% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 6.9% 0.3% 16.2%
International Tenants(2)
% of Total Tower
Revenue
Telefónica ~5%
Airtel ~5%
AT&T ~4%
MTN ~3%
Telecom Italia ~2%
Nextel International ~2%
Vodafone ~2%
Oi ~1%
America Móvil ~1%
Idea ~1%
4 June 3, 2016
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
180%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
International Markets Poised for Smartphone Growth
Wireless Penetration vs. Mobile Broadband (3G/4G) Penetration(1)
(Size of bubbles = Number of mobile subscribers)
Wire
less
Pe
netr
atio
n
Mobile Broadband (3G/4G) Penetration
Emerging Rapidly Evolving
Advanced
AMT’s International Exposure Provides Access to Significantly Less Mature Wireless Markets
(1) Data is from 4Q15; exceptions are Costa Rica (regulatory agency last published report for 4Q14), and Uganda subs (3Q15).
Source: Altman Vilandrie & Co. research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix, GSMA Intelligence
5 June 3, 2016
Advanced Wireless Markets Germany
6 June 3, 2016
28% 32%
38% 42% 44%
49% 54%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
Germany WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 114M 1%
Wireless Penetration 139% 1%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU 148(1) 3%
ARPU (per SIM card) $14 -3%
Key Catalysts • LTE rollout by all major operators in 800 and
2500 MHz bands • LTE-A launched or testing in progress by major
carriers • 2015 auctions for 270MHz of spectrum in 700,
900, 1500 and 1800 results: • Vodafone, €2.1B ($2.4B USD)/110MHz • Deutsche Telekom, €1.8B ($2.0B
USD)/100MHz • Telefonica, €1.2B ($1.4 USD)/60MHz
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1) Snapshot
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
2017
LTE LTE-A
launched in Nov-14
LTE Roll-out started in 800 MHz in rural areas as required by regulators
Launched LTE-A in first half of
2015
LTE Urban LTE began w/ coverage in 2
cities
O2 Roll-out in 800 MHz in rural areas
Launched in Mar-14 HSPA+
97% of network
HSPA+ in 2012
Top 3 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
Deutsche Telekom 35%
~220 MHz Holdings in 700, 800,
900, 1500, 1800, 2100, and 2500 MHz bands
3G/4G
Vodafone
27% ~280 MHz
Holdings in 700, 800, 900, 1500, 1800, 2100, and 2600 MHz bands
3G/4G
Telefonica Europe (2)
38%
~405 MHz Holdings in 700, 800,
900, 1800, 1900, 2000, 2100, 2600, and 3500
MHz bands
2G/3G/4G
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 (2) As of 7/14, Telefonica has acquired E-Plus Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16, carrier annual reports, press releases and news articles
LTE
Covered 90% of German population by EOY 2015
Boosts LTE coverage to 90% by summer 2016
Testing LTE-A technology
Started offering VoLTE April 2015
7 June 3, 2016
Evolving Wireless Markets Mexico • Brazil • South Africa • Chile • Colombia
8 June 3, 2016
20% 24%
30% 35% 39%
44% 47%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Mexico WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 107M 3%
Wireless Penetration 89% 2%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 224 4%
ARPU (per SIM card) $9 -4%
Key Catalysts • AT&T acquired Iusacell and Nextel (2015) • 1Q16 AWS spectrum auction results –
Government raised $2.4B USD (~MXN 41B) from sale of AWS-1 and AWS-3 spectrum; Telcel to pay $31B MXN (~$1.8B USD) for 60 MHz; AT&T to pay $12.7B MXN (~MXN 0.7B) on 20 MHz
• Wholesale 700 MHz network deployment presents potential upside; bids due for Red Compartida in Aug ’16, contract to be awarded Nov ’16
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
LTE
HSPA+ Has been advertising HSPA+ network as 4G
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 (2) Holdings vary by region (3) AT&T completed acquisitions of Iusacell and Nextel Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16
HSPA+ Launched in 2013 LTE
Covers the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico with plans to cover more cities
HSPA+ LTE Covered 13
main Mexican cities in 2013
LTE HSPA LTE launched in 3 cities by
Oct 14
Covered 65.5% of pops by June 2015
Top 3 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings(2)
Current Technology
América Móvil 69%
~140 MHz Holdings in AWS-1, AWS-
3 and other bands 3G/4G
Telefónica
23% ~270 MHz
Holdings in 850 and 1900 MHz
2G/3G/4G
AT&T(3)
8% ~130 MHz
Holdings in AWS-1 and other bands
2G/3G/4G
Covers 45 million pops in 42 cities (as of April 2016), with plans to cover 100 million by
2018
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12% 16%
19% 23% 26%
32% 39%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Brazil WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 258M 5%
Wireless Penetration 127% 4%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 115 1%
ARPU (per SIM card) $5 -3%
Key Catalysts • Mobile infrastructure sharing law
(Antenna Law) enacted, making sharing excess capacity on existing mobile network sections compulsory
• Massive 4G coverage expansion in lead up to World Cup will continue in advance of 2016 Olympics
• Anatel raised ~R$763 (~$190M USD) in 4Q15 auction of 1.8, 1.9, and 2.5 GHz spectrum
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Sub Mkt.
Share Spectrum Holdings(2)
Current Technology
Telefónica 28%
~165 MHz Holdings in 450, 700, 850, 900,
1800, 1900, 2100, and 2500 MHz bands
2G/3G/4G
Telecom Italia 26%
~125 MHz Holdings in 450, 700, 800-960,
1700-1860, 1920-2165, and 2500 MHz bands
3G/4G
América Móvil 26%
~145 MHz Holdings in 450, 700, 800-960,
1700-1860, 1900-2165, and 2500 MHz bands
3G/4G
Tele Norte Leste 19%
~80 MHz Holdings in 450, 800-960, 1700-1860, 1900-2165, and 2500 MHz
bands
3G/4G
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 (2) Holdings vary by region, do not include MHz total from 4Q15 auction Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16, press releases, RCR
UMTS/ HSPA+ LTE Launched
Apr 13
UMTS/ HSPA+ LTE
Reached 76M subs by
YE ‘14
HSPA+ LTE 93 markets by
Oct 14, 71M LTE subs by YE
HSPA+ LTE Launched in
5 World Cup cities in
Apr 13
$3.6B in planned capex 2015-2017
Planned $3.6B to expand 3G and 4G networks
Did not bid on 700 MHz
Expected to invest ~$500M through 2015
411 cities covered Feb-16 Plans to launch LTE-A in 1H16
Reached 47% of pops covered and coverage of 183 cities by EOY 2015
Plans for trial of LTE-A in Nov 2016
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16% 19%
22% 26% 31%
35% 39%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
South Africa WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 89M 12%
Wireless Penetration 163% 11%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 139 7%
ARPU (per SIM card) $7 -9%
Key Catalysts • Additional spectrum auctions over
next few years (700 MHz, 800 MHz, and 2.6 GHz) will aid carriers’ 4G expansion
• Increased emphasis on rural coverage by regulatory authorities likely to lead to demand for tower space
• Growing data usage expected to drive network build-outs and densification initiatives
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
Vodafone 38%
81 MHz Holdings in 900,
1800, and 2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
MTN Group 34%
81 MHz Holdings in 900,
1800, and 2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
Saudi Oger Ltd. 25%
81 MHz Holdings in 900,
1800, and 2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
Telkom SA 3%
160 MHz Holdings in 1800, 2100, 2300, and 3500 MHz bands
3G/4G
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16, annual reports
HSPA+ LTE Launched in Jo’burg in 2012
HSPA+ LTE Launched in
3 cities in Dec ’12
HSPA+ LTE Reached 6 cities
1,000 LTE sites by Nov 14
LTE-A trials since Nov ’14; rolled out to 27 suburbs by May ’15
VoLTE trials launched in
Sep ’14
HSPA+ LTE Trials since 2012
Upgraded infrastructure
in 4Q 14
LTE launched in
Sep ’15
2,600 LTE sites by EOY
2015
Plans for 4,000 base stations
LTE-A trials
LTE-A trials
LTE-A launched in 3 cities Apr ’16
11 June 3, 2016
15% 19%
21% 22% 23% 30% 35%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
Chile WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 26M 4%
Wireless Penetration 145% 3%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 146 -2%
ARPU (per SIM card) $10 -2%
Key Catalysts • Entel’s successful 4G LTE trial in the
APT700 band signals will increase 4G presence in future
• Rural 4G rollouts should further drive coverage tower growth
• High wireless penetration and increasing data consumption will drive need for capacity
• Minimum connection speed rules to be introduced will drive investment
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 3 Carrier Characteristics
AMT Customer?
Subscriber Market Share
Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
Telefónica
38% ~145 MHz
Holdings in 700, 850, 1900, 2600, and 3500 MHz bands
3G/4G
Entel
38% ~110 MHz
Holdings in 700, 1900, and 2600 MHz
bands
3G/4G
América Móvil
24% ~95 MHz
Holdings in 700, 850, 1900, and 2600 MHz
bands
3G/4G
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, SUBTEL, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA+ LTE
$2.1B investment promised 2015-2017
Started nationwide
deployment in ‘13
4G nationwide in Jun-13
175k subs by Dec-14
250k subs by Dec-14
200K LTE subs by Dec-
14
$200M LTE investment
promised 2014-2016
Expects to deploy LTE nationwide in ‘15 after Dec-14 APT700 trial
More than 1,100 LTE
sites by March-15
12 June 3, 2016
2017 2016 2015 2012 2013 2014
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 (2) Merger approved in Apr-14, new company has 3 years to repay 50 MHz Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16
14% 16%
19% 23% 24% 25% 23%
29%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q15
Colombia WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 51M 3%
Wireless Penetration 105% 2%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 201 5%
ARPU (per SIM card) $6 0%
Key Catalysts • 4G networks launched across all
major players, hitting 50% at end of 2014
• Auctions in 700, 900, 1900 and 2600 MHz bands expected by end of 2016
• Tigo-Une merger provides stronger third carrier, with a $250M network investment planned
• CRC reviewing barriers to infrastructure deployment, paving the way for future tower deployments
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
América Móvil 57%
~80 MHz Holdings in 850,
1900, and 2500 MHz bands
3G/4G
Telefónica 25%
~85 MHz Holdings in 850,
1900, and 1700/2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
Millicom (50%) EPM Group (50%) (2) 18%
~140 MHz Holdings in 1900,
2500 MHz, and AWS bands
3G/4G
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA+ LTE
UMTS/ HSPA+
Launched Dec 13
Launched Dec 13
LTE First Colombian 4G network
288k LTE customers by
YE ‘14
Covers 76 cities, 300k subs by Nov
14
Operates LTE in 6 markets
Covered 100 municipalities by
Aug 14
Plans to cover >600 municipalities by
2019
Plans to launch VoLTE
LTE coverage in 75 cities
13 June 3, 2016
Developing Wireless Markets Peru • India • Ghana • Uganda • Costa Rica • Nigeria
14 June 3, 2016
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Top 3 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share(1) Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
Grupo ICE / Kolbi
76%
~550 MHz Holdings in 850, 1800, and 2600 MHz bands
3G/4G
Telefónica
9% ~60 MHz
Holdings in 850, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
América Móvil
15% ~70 MHz
Holdings in 1800 and 2100 MHz bands
3G/4G
Notes: (1) Data from Sutel regulatory agency; latest data is from 2014 (2) CAGR for Data as % of Revenue and ARPU calculated with 2011 numbers as market was monopoly before 2011 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, BuddeComm, Sutel
Costa Rica WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q14(1)
2007 – 4Q14 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 7.3M 25%
Wireless Penetration 149% 24%
Data as % of Revenue 25% 36%
ARPU (per SIM card) $5 -25%
Key Catalysts • ICE market share has declined rapidly
since monopoly ended in 2011 • Claro and Movistar wins in auction of
1800, 1900, and 2100 MHz will increase competitiveness
• All three networks recently launched LTE networks and are currently in build-out phase
• Sutel will decide in November 2016 if market is competitive; may give operators more control over their offerings
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
HSPA+
Subscriber Market Share
76%
9% 15%
ICE Telefonica Claro
LTE LTE in Nov-13
HSPA+ LTE LTE
network in Apr 14
HSPA LTE LTE
network in Jul 14
(2)
(2)
354 LTE base stations reaching 4M people by YE
‘14
Addt’l network roll-out in 2015
Will triple coverage by YE ‘16
$19.9M investment on 4G expansion
15 June 3, 2016
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
9% 11%
13% 13% 18%
21%
29%
34%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q15
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16
Peru WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 32M 7%
Wireless Penetration 102% 5%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 152 9%
ARPU (per SIM card) $8 1%
Key Catalysts • All three major carriers launched LTE
coverage in 2014 • Auctions in 700 MHz band completed
in May 2016 • Operators expanding in sparsely
populated areas driving coverage tower demand
• New entrants such as Viettel expected to stimulate demand for towers
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
Telefónica 52%
~175 MHz Holdings in 450, 850,
900, 1700/2100, 1900, and 3500 MHz bands
2G/3G/4G
América Móvil 38%
~80 MHz Holdings in 1900 and
2600 MHz bands 2G/3G
Entel 10%
~115 MHz Holdings in 850, 1900, 2600 MHz, and AWS
bands
2G/3G
Viettel
New Entrant
~85 MHz Holdings in 900 and
1900 MHz bands 2G/3G
HSPA+ LTE Launched
LTE in Lima Jan-14
HSPA+ LTE
W-CDMA LTE
GSM/UMTS
In May-14, launched in 2
cities
Launched 4G in Oct 14 in Lima
LTE Possible bidder in future 4G auction
Expected $400M investment over the
next 10 years
Will invest $400M in 4G network by 2019
5 cities/300k subs by 2015
Targets nationwide coverage by YE ‘15
16 June 3, 2016
10% 12%
14% 17% 17%
22% 28%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q15
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 (2)Spectrum holdings vary by region Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16
India WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 708M 8%
Wireless Penetration 78% 4%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 379 1%
ARPU (per SIM card) $3 0%
Key Catalysts • 2016 spectrum auction in the 700,
800, 900, 1800, 2100, 2300 and 2500 MHz bands
• Second largest smartphone market in the world
• Reliance Jio Infocomm likely to launch 4G in 2016 in all states using 1800 and 2300 MHz bands
• Capex increases for four major carriers in response to Jio, with over INR 350B planned for 2016
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue (1)
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Sub Mkt.
Share Spectrum Holdings(2)
Current Technology
Bharti, Singtel, Vodafone
34% ~590 MHz
Holdings in 900, 1800, 2100, and 2300 MHz bands
3G/4G
Vodafone 27%
~295 MHz Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100
MHz bands 2G/3G
Aditya Birla Group
24% ~270 MHz
Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands
2G/3G
Reliance Communications
14% ~715 MHz
Holdings in 800, 900, 1800, 2100, and 2300 MHz bands
2G/3G
HSPA+ LTE First 4G
compatible phones in Feb-
14
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA+ LTE First LTE circle launch independently in Nov 15; partnership with Reliance
Jio to cover 10 total circles
Launched 4G in 5 major cities by
early ‘16
HSPA LTE Rollout plans for
10 service areas in 1H16
LTE coverage across 300 cities/towns in
Aug 15
17 June 3, 2016
2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on 4Q14 data (2)Data from 1Q15, CAGR for 2008-1Q15 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, BuddeCom, National Communications Authority of Ghana
Ghana WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of Dec ’15
2010 – Dec ’15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 35M 15%
Wireless Penetration 128% 11%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU 124 1%(1)
Yearly ARPU (per SIM card) $4 -12%(2)
Key Catalysts • Rapidly growing subscriber base and
solid macroeconomic conditions expected to drive growth in wireless
• State withdrew plan to abolish 20% import tax on smartphones
• 800 MHz auction results expected to drive network growth
• Larger carriers continue to improve 3G network capacity and quality, while smaller entrants launch first 4G networks
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
MTN Group 46%
Holdings in 800, 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz
bands
2G/3G/(4G)
Vodafone 22%
~65 MHz Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands
2G/3G
Milicom
14% ~20 MHz
Holdings in 900 and 1800
2G/3G
Bharti
14% Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands 2G/3G
HSPA+
UMTS/HSPA
UMTS/HSPA
HSPA Launched HSPA+ in 2012; marketed
as 3.75G
Subscriber Market Share Dec ’15
Spent $96M on network in 2014; 2.3k 2G sites
and 1.2k 3G+ sites
Spent $20M on network
Spent $24M on 3G network; plan to deploy
275 new cell sites
$62M network investment
promised in 2014
Spent $122M on network LTE
Plans to invest $18M in LTE
rollout to launch in 2016
46%
22%
14%
14% 4%
MTN Vodafone Milicom Airtel Other
18 June 3, 2016
Notes: (1) Pre-paid + post-paid mobile subs, 3Q15; CAGR calculated using 1Q15 data (2) Based on MTN data; CAGR based on ‘07-1Q15 period (3) Acquired Warid in Apr-13 (4) Africell acquired Orange Uganda in May ’14 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, BuddeCom, MTN 1Q15 Earnings Report, MTN 2015 Annual Report
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Uganda WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 22.6M(1) 27%
Wireless Penetration 44%(2) 17%
Data as % of Revenue 26%(2) 7%
Yearly ARPU (per SIM card) $2.29(2) -19%
Key Catalysts • New market entrant Vodafone launched
4G LTE network in Feb. ’15 in 2 cities using 2.6 GHz band
• Smile expected to expand 4G networks and services
• Low wireless penetration presents opportunities for significant growth
• Rural coverage improvement initiatives underway
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines
Snapshot
Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
MTN Group 44%
up to 44 MHz Holdings in
2300/2500/3500 and 900/1800 MHz bands
3G/4G
Bharti(3) 32%
up to 14MHz Holdings in 900/1800
MHz band 2G/3G
Africell(4)
4% Holdings in 2100 and 800 MHz bands 3G/4G
UCOM 8%
up to 44 MHz Holdings in
2300/2500/3500 and 900/1800 MHz bands
2G/3G
HSPA+
UMTS/HSDA Capacity expansions in major cities but HSPA+/LTE plans
unknown
Subscriber Market Share 1Q15
44%
32%
4% 8%
MTN Airtel Africell Uganda Telecom
LTE Launched LTE in Kampala in
Apr 13
HSPA+
Expanded LTE network to all major
towns in Jul 15
HSPA Launched
LTE in Aug-13
LTE $150M investment to upgrade operations
GSM/HSPA
Plans to deploy 100 4G base stations and 200 3G sites
Equipment upgrade at 674
sites
LTE launched April ’15 with 170 sites and expansion plans
focused on rural areas LTE
19 June 3, 2016
5% 6% 7%
21% 23% 28% 32%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Notes: (1) AV&Co. projection based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix 1Q15 Sources: American Tower research & analysis, Altman Vilandrie & Co. research & analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 1Q16, Nigerian Communications Commission, GSMA
Nigeria WIRELESS MARKET OVERVIEW:
WIRELESS CARRIER OVERVIEW:
Key Catalysts • Low penetration compared to other
African nations presents growth opportunities
• 2.6 GHz spectrum auction scheduled for May 2016
• National Broadband Plan seeks to cover 80% of population with 3G by 2018
• Trends towards consolidation of wireless providers and infrastructure companies may create opportunities
Snapshot
Indicator As of 4Q15
2010 – 4Q15 CAGR
Wireless Subscribers 147M 13%
Wireless Penetration 84% 8%
Average Monthly Voice
MOU(1) 139 11%
ARPU (per SIM card) $4 -8%
Data as a % of Wireless Revenue
Carrier-Announced Network Deployment Timelines Top 4 Carrier Characteristics AMT
Customer? Subscriber
Market Share Spectrum Holdings
Current Technology
MTN Group 42%
Holdings in 700, 800, 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz
bands 2G/3G
Bharti
21% Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands 2G/3G
Globacom
21% ≥ 20 MHz
Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands
2G/3G
Emirates Telecom Corp.
16% ≥ 20 MHz
Holdings in 900, 1800, and 2100 MHz bands
2G/3G
HSPA
HSPA+ LTE
HSPA
HSPA
By YE 2013, 2G coverage was 87% of population; 3G
was 49% of population
3G across 36 states
4G-LTE roll out planned in 1800 or
2100 MHz or 700/800 MHz grant from NCC
Will continue spending $1.2B to improve network
2014 expansion resulted in 90% 3G
coverage of its network
$1.2B network upgrade
Bought spectrum in 700 MHz in 2015
Likely to launch 4G on 800MHz acquired
from Visafone
20 June 3, 2016
Appendix: Spectrum Auction Summary and Definitions
21 June 3, 2016
Spectrum Auction Summary Completed Major Auctions: 2012-2016
Expected: 2016-2017 Year Bands Auctioned Winners Technology Build-out Requirements
U.S.A.
2014 AWS-3 AT&T, Verizon, Dish, T-Mobile
4G Licensees must cover 40% of their licensed population within six years and 75% of their licensed population within 12 years 28, 37, 39, 64-71 GHz and other mmWave
spectrum auction likely following end of FCC’s review this summer 2016 600MHz TBD 4G
Licensees must cover 40% of their licensed population within six years and 75% of their licensed population within 12 years
Germany 2015 700MHz, 900MHz, 1500MHz, 1800MHz,
Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefonica O2
4G N/A no known plans
Mexico 2016 1710-1780 MHz, 2110-2180 MHz (AWS-1, AWS-3)
AT&T, America Movil 4G N/A
Awardee of “Red Compartida” government contract will receive spectrum in 700 MHz frequencies to build out a nationwide LTE wholesale network
Brazil
2012 450MHz, 2.5GHz Claro, TNL, Vivo, Telecom Italia Mobile, Sunrise, Sky Brasil
4G Coverage in major cities and rural areas required before soccer world cup and Olympic games (2016) Auction of “Lot C” of spectrum auction from 2015
will include additional 1.9 and 2.5 MHz spectrum; also potential re-auction of 700 MHz 2014 700MHZ Claro, TIM, Vivo, Algar 4G Responsible for clearing 700 MHz of legacy
interference
2015 1.8, 1.9, 2.5-2.69 GHz
Telefonica Brasil, Claro, TIM Brasil
4G N/A
Chile 2012 2.6 GHz Claro, Entel, Movistar
(20 MHz each) 4G
12 months to deploy their networks across most of Chile; must also connect ~583 isolated areas within 24 months no known plans
2014 700 MHz Claro, Entel, Movistar 4G Requires coverage of 854 km of roads, 503 schools, 98% of population
Colombia 2013 1.7 GHz, 2.5GHz Movistar, Claro, Tigo, DirecTV, Avantel 4G
Purchase ~550K tablets for poor students and improve wireless internet quality in rural areas
Auctions in 700, 900, 1900 and 2500 MHz bands in 2016
Peru 2013 AWS Movistar, Nextel (Entel) 4G $400mn of investment required in the first 10 years for each block of spectrum Auction held in 700 MHz band in May 2016
India
2012 800, 1800MHz Vodafone, Airtel, Uninor, Idea, Videocon
2G N/A
Plans to auction spectrum in the 700, 800, 900, 1800, 2100, 2300 and 2500 MHz bands in mid-2016
2014 900, 1800 MHz Vodafone, Airtel, Idea, Uninor, RCOM, Aircel, Jio
2G N/A
2013 800, 900, 1800 MHz MTS India 2G N/A
2015 800MHz, 900MHz, 1800MHz and 2100MHz
Airtel, Vodafone, Idea, RCOM, Jio, Aircel, Tata
2G/3G N/A
S. Africa no major auctions Plans to auction spectrum in 800MHz, 2.6 GHz and 3.5 GHz bands
Uganda no major auctions no known plans
Ghana 2015 800 MHz Scancom Ghana Limited 4G N/A no known plans
Costa Rica 2011 850, 1800, 2100 MHz Movistar, Claro 4G N/A Auctions expected in 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2100 MHz bands
Nigeria 2014 2.3GHz Bitflux (consortium of VDT, BitCom, and Superflex) 3G/4G N/A Auction of 2.6GHz band is ongoing
Sources: Regulatory authorities, Press releases, Fierce Wireless, AV&Co. Research & Analysis; Note: N/A indicates no major build-out requirements or no data available
Highlighted Carriers are new or recent entrants
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Definitions and Data Sources
Definitions
Data Sources - Global Wireless Matrix 12 April 2016 Corrected
- Research and Analysis
- Research and Analysis
ARPU: The monthly average revenue per user is calculated by dividing service revenues by the average subscriber base during the quarter. Each SIM card is considered a user for the purposes of this calculation.
Data as % of ARPU: Data revenue including messaging revenues, as reported by carriers as percentage of ARPU Subscribers: Data based on reported subscribers by carriers. This may include more than one SIM card per user, which may be
counted as multiple subscribers. Voice Minutes of Use: The minutes of use per month per average user is calculated by dividing total minutes of use as reported by
carriers, using estimates where available, by the average subscriber base during the quarter. Wireless Penetration: Mobile subscribers as a percentage of country population.