Ambit _Sadbhav Engineering_A Solid, Sensible Construction Play_23Nov2011
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Transcript of Ambit _Sadbhav Engineering_A Solid, Sensible Construction Play_23Nov2011
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8/2/2019 Ambit _Sadbhav Engineering_A Solid, Sensible Construction Play_23Nov2011
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Engineering and Construction November 23, 2011
Sadbhav EngineeringBloomberg: SADE IN EQUITYReuters: SADE.NS
Accounting: GREENPredictability: GREENEarnings Momentum: GREEN
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit
Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
NOT RATED
COMPANY VISIT NOTE
Nitin Bhasin
Tel: +91 22 3043 [email protected]
Chhavi Agarwal
Tel: +9122 3043 [email protected]
Stock Information
CMP: `119
Mkt cap: `18bn/US$344mn
52-wk H/L: `158/91
3M ADV: `12mn/US$0.2mn
Beta: 1.5x
BSE Sensex: 16,065
Nifty: 4,812
EPS (FY13E) consensus: `12.4
Stock Performance (%)
1M 3M 12M YTD
Absolute -6.9 -12.4 -16.4 1.2
Rel. to Sensex -2.6 -11.9 1.6 22.9
Performance (%)
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Nov-10 M ar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11
30
80
130
180
Sensex Sadbhav Eng (R s)
Sadbhav has outperformed its peersover the last 3 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
Nov-
08
Apr-
09
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-
10
Dec-
10
May-
11
Oct-
11
Sadbhav IVRCL NCC L&T
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note:Prices are indexed to 100
A solid, sensible construction playSadbhavs stock price has risen 26% over the last two years whilst allother infrastructure/construction companys stock prices have fallen25-80%. This superlative performance can be attributed to Sadbhavs:(a) superior accounting quality; (b) continuing strength in costcompetitiveness; and (c) well funded infra BOT assets. Industry leading44% CAGR in revenues and steady net margins over FY09-11 signifythe importance of well-managed balance sheet for deliveringprofitable growth. The stock (including embedded value of `81/share)presently trades at 11.5x FY13E consensus EPS (an 36% premium topeers).
Competitive Position: STRONG Change to this position: POSITIVE
Accounting and corporate governance checks signify credibility:Superior cash flow management (positive CFO and FCF in FY09 and FY10)and relatively low level of unclassified loans & advances (21% of FY11networth) underscore Sadbhavs superior accounting quality versus its peers.However, on corporate governance checks, Sadbhav is an average companyin the sector because of: (a) lower managerial remuneration as a proportionof PBT (3.7% in FY11) and (b) mainly equity route to invest in BOT subsidiaries.Relative to other road developers (IRB, ITNL and Ashoka), the company reportslower but more comprehensible EBITDA margins of 11%, which haveremained stable (as compared to ~20% margin reported by IRB in FY11).
Gaining competitiveness in a crumbling world: In our competitivemapping of the Indian EPC sector, Sadbhav not only stands as the strongest
player, it has continuously gained competitiveness over the last 3 years.Despite a relatively lower revenue base and lower networth (which keep itsprequalification competitiveness moderate), Sadbhavs markedly superior coststructure gives it industry leading cost competitiveness. Steady gross blockturnover, lower fixed and financial costs underscore this cost competitiveness.Relatively low debt: equity (0.6X vs 1-1.5X for most peers) and superior costcompetitiveness should enable Sadbhav to bid competitively against its peers
who are capital starved and reeling under rising financial cost pressures.
More gains from its BOT portfolio: Whilst Sadbhav also has a higherproportion of its networth (50%) invested in its BOT subsidiaries, whatdifferentiates Sadbhav from its peers (who have struggled with their BOTportfolios) is how Sadbhav has: (a) switched between the cash (roads and
others) and BOT contracts as per the market conditions; (b) demonstratedtimely (in fact, ahead of schedule) execution of its BOTs through incentives forsub-contractors; and (c) used external equity funding for completing projects.
We believe timely and controlled cost construction of BOT roads can make upfor the underperformance of traffic flows. Most of Sadbhavs peers have
witness 25-50% time and cost overruns and lower traffic. In contrast, Sadbhavis ahead of schedule in most of its BOTs under construction and witnessingstrong traffic in operational assets.
Premium valuations for superior quality and performance: The stock(including embedded value) is presently trading at 11.5X and 1.9X FY13 oneyear-forward earnings and book, respectively. The relative valuations are a36% premium to Sadbhavs construction peers. Excluding consensus currentembedded value of`81/share, the stock is trading at 3.7X and 0.6X one year-forward earnings and book, respectively.. This premium is clearly warrantedgiven Sadbhavs superior cash flow generation profile, no immediate equitydilution risks and a strong balance sheet for capturing growth when the Indianinfrastructure & construction sector recovers.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 2
Company Financial Snapshot
Company Background
Incorporated in 1988, Sadbhav Engineering is anEngineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC)company catering to the roads/highways, mining and
irrigation sectors. The roads segment dominatesSadbhavs revenues (82% of revenues in FY11) andorder book (74% of order book in FY11). Apart fromthe core construction business, the company has aninfrastructure asset portfolio of four operationalprojects and five road projects under construction(roads). The firms promoters (Vishnubhai Patel family),hold 48% stake in Sadbhav Engineering which in turnholds a 78% stake in its BOT asset portfolio subsidiary,Sadbhav Infrastructure Pvt Ltd (SIPL).
Event Calendar
CY Event
1988Incorporated by acquiring M/s BhavnaConstruction Company
1989 Bagged first project from Sardar SarovarNarmada Nigam Ltd
2001 Awarded first direct EPC project from NHAI
2006Awarded first BOT project (Ahmedabad RingRoad Project)
2006 Raised an IPO of`537mn
2007 QIP placement of`920mn
2008Commercial operations started for AhmedabadRing Road Project
2010Raised `1.2bn from rights issues and `4bnfrom the sale of 22.22% stake in SIPL.
Profit and Loss (consolidated)Y/E March ( mn) FY09 FY10 FY11
Net Sales 10,974 13,340 23,294
Optg Exp 9,549 11,268 19,952
EBITDA 1,544 2,332 3,608
Depreciation 378 565 789
Interest Expenses 673 1,412 1,574
PBT ex EO 574 726 1,409
Tax 197 459 638
Consolidated Adj. PAT 433 353 919
Profit and Loss RatiosEBITDA Margin (%) 14.1% 17.5% 15.5%
Adj Net Margin (%) 3.9% 2.6% 3.9%
Profit and Loss (stand-alone)Y/E March ( mn) FY09 FY10 FY11
Net Sales 10,609 12,565 22,092
Optg Exp 9,487 11,143 19,710
EBITDA 1,123 1,422 2,381
Depreciation 157 233 269
Interest Expenses 269 380 550
PBT ex EO 829 980 1,757
Tax 196 441 562
Adj. PAT 637 526 1,205
Profit and Loss Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.6% 11.3% 10.8%
Adj Net Margin (%) 6.0% 4.2% 5.5%
Balance Sheet (consolidated) Balance Sheet (stand-alone)
Y/E March ( mn) FY09 FY10 FY11
Total Assets 13,692 18,821 30,929
Fixed Assets 10,118 13,001 24,385
Current Assets 6,174 9,658 12,304
Investments 1,246 1,441 3,264
Total Liabilities 13,692 18,821 30,929
Total networth 4,199 4,129 10,740
Total Debt 9,383 14,551 20,028
Current Liabilities /Provisions 2,867 4,646 6,014
Balance Sheet ratios
ROE (%) 13.0% 10.0% 15.0%
RoCE (%) 7.8% 4.7% 7.2%
Net Debt/Equity (x) 2.2 3.4 1.7
Total Debt/Equity (x) 2.2 3.5 1.9
Y/E March ( mn) FY09 FY10 FY11
Total Assets 5,656 8,295 10,379
Fixed Assets 1,545 2,101 2,298
Current Assets 5,522 10,659 14,341
Investments 1,246 1,441 3,264
Total Liabilities 5,656 8,295 10,379
Total networth 3,435 3,915 6,257
Total Debt 2,111 4,239 3,961
Current Liabilities /Provisions 2,666 5,907 9,524
Balance Sheet ratios
ROE (%) 20.2% 14.3% 23.7%
RoCE (%) 14.9% 9.5% 15.6%
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.6 1.0 0.5
Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.6 1.1 0.6
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 3
Exhibit 1:Growth in stand-alone revenues (LHS) ismainly driven by captive orders; EBITDA and PATmargins have remained stable
0
5
1015
20
25
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Rs bn
3%
5%
7%9%
11%
13%
Road ( Captive BOTs) Road (External Clients)
Mining Irrigation
EBITDA margin (RHS) PAT margin (RHS)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company Note (a) We have taken stand-alone revenues on the LHS.
Exhibit 2:High revenue growth from captive ordershelped improve working capital and gross blockturnover significantly in FY11
2
3
4
5
6
7
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Working capital turnover (x)
Gross Block turnover (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Exhibit 3:Completion of BOTs and external equityinfusion significantly lowered debt:equity in FY11
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Stand-alone (x) Consolidated (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Exhibit 4:Stand-alone return ratios are ahead of peers;consolidated ratios will rise gradually as BOT revenues,cash flows and earnings rise, as visible in FY11
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
RoE (SA) RoE (Cons)
RoCE (SA) RoCE (Cons)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. SA denotes standaloneand Cons denotes Consolidated.
Exhibit 5:Investment and loans to BOTs have declinedas a proportion of networth in FY11 as incrementalinvestments in BOTs were met through BOT stake sale
Year (`mn)
EquityInvestment
in BOTs
Loans toBOTs
A+BC as % ofNetworth
C as % ofCapital
employed
(A) (B) (C )
FY08 844 202 1,046 37% 24%
FY09 1,096 72 1,168 34% 21%
FY10 1,441 1,423 2,864 73% 35%
FY11 3,244 39 3,283 52% 32%
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. We have taken standalone
data for our analysis
Exhibit 6:BOT funding mainly from internal cash flowsand external equity, rather than heavy debt raisings
(1,500)
-
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
CFO (SA) (Rs mn) FCFF (SA) (Rs mn)
Investment in BOTs (Rs mn) Incremental debt (Rs mn)
Fresh equity raise (Rs mn)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. Note: In FY08 Sadbhav raised
Rs920mn through QIP. In FY11, Sadbhav raised Rs1.2bn from rightsissues and Rs4bn from the sale of a 22.22% stake in SIPL.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 4
Order book driven by captive BOTs
Exhibit 7:For the last 18 months, BOT orders are notthe ones driving order inflows
0
9
18
27
36
45
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 1HFY12
Rs bn
BOT roads Road others Mining Irrigation
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Exhibit 8:Faster execution of well-funded BOT assets isbringing the Book to bill (BTB) ratio lower since FY10
0
20
40
60
80
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 1HFY12
Rs bn
0
2
4
6
8
BOT roads Road others
Mining Irrigation
BTB - BOT roads (x) (RHS) BTB - Overall (x) (RHS)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. Note: (a) We have takenstand-alone data for analysis; (b) For calculating book-to-bill for 1HFY12,segmental revenues and order flow for 2HFY11 is divided as per FY11
BOT Portfolio- benefits accruing
Unlike its peers, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) has been able to complete most of itsprojects in time or ahead of schedule, thus controlling the costs of construction forits BOT assets. Presently, it has five assets under construction. Of these, nearlythree roads are ahead of schedule which could materially improve the profitabilityof the group, as Sadbhav Infrastructure Pvt Ltd (SIPL) (the asset holding subsidiaryof SEL) shares the benefits of early tolling with the parent SEL. The assets under
construction require another `4.4bn of equity over next 18 months (of which`2.5bn has to be contributed by Sadbhav). SEL intends to infuse equity in SIPLbefore March 2012 (thereby raising its stake to ~82%) at a valuation similar to the
valuation at which a private equity investor took a 22.22% stake in Sept 10.
Exhibit 9:Sadbhav Infrastructure Pvt Ltd (SIPL) road BOT asset details
ProjectCost
Totalequity
requirements
SIPLEquityshare
Equityalready
investedby SIPL
Length(km)
Type
` mn
SIPLStake
Scheduledcompletion
date
Actual/expected
completiondate ` mn ` mn ` mn
Equity tobe
investedby SIPL
uptoFY13E
RoEFY11
RoEFY10
Operational Assets
Ahmedabad Ring Road 76 Toll 5,008 80% Jan-07 521 417 417 NA -14% -21%Aurangabad - Jalna 69 Toll 2,770 100% Aug-09 829 829 829 NA -23% -21%
Mumbai - Nasik 100 Toll 7,901 20%50% in
Apr-101,206 241 241 NA NA NA
Nagpur - Seoni 56 Annuity 4,897 50% Jun-10 1,098 549 316 NA -22% NA
Total 20,576 3,654 2,036 1,803
Under Construction Assets
Dhule - Palasner 97 Toll 14,200 27% Jun-12 Dec-11 3,550 959 753 206 NA NA
Maharasthra bordercheck post
NA Toll 14,264 90% 1,560 1,404 1,277 127 NA NA
Rohtak - Panipat 80 Toll 12,134 100% Oct-13 Dec-12 2,427 2,427 607 1,820 NA NA
Bijapur - Hungund 35 Toll 12,571 77% Mar-13 Nov-11 1,370 1,055 1,055 - NA NA
Hyderabad - Yadgiri 100 Toll 4,802 60% May-12 Mar-12 1,000 600 314 286 NA NA
Total 57,971 9,907 6,444 4,005 2,439
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 5
Exhibit 10:BOT cash flows increased significantly inFY11 as revenues rose marginally and interest costsremained stagnant
(1,000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Rs mn
Revenues PAT CFO Interest payment
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company (a) The above analysis iscalculated as Consolidated less stand-alone
Exhibit 11:Consolidated RoEs may remain low but willincrease gradually as cash flows rise from presentoperational assets and assets coming up for operations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
RoE (SA) RoE (Cons)
RoCE (SA) RoCE (Cons)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Exhibit 12:Explanation for our forensic accounting scoresSegment Score Comments
Accounting GREENIn our forensic accounting analysis of 20 construction companies, Sadbhav is in the top-quartile both on the aggressive accounting parameter and the cash manipulation parameter.
Predictability GREENSadbhav has always made timely disclosures regarding its future strategy, expected businessmomentum and expected earnings performance in their conference calls
Earnings momentum GREENOver the last six months, FY2012 and FY2013 consensus EPS have been revised upward by15%-20%.
Source: Ambit Capital research, Sadbhav, Bloomberg
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 6
Valuations
Relative valuations historical perspective
Unlike its peers whose valuations have seen historical lows in the last threemonths, Sadbhav valuations remain sturdy on account of (a) improving financialperformance and external equity infusion into BOT assets, and (b) continuing
strength of the construction business.
Exhibit 13:Sadbhav is trading at a 20% discount to its5 year historical 1-year forward PE of 14x
0
50
100
150
200
250
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
(Rs)
20x
16x
12x
8x
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note (a) We have takenstand-alone consensus EPS for our analysis
Exhibit 14:Sadbhav is trading at a 17% discount of toits 5 year historical 1-year forward PB of 2.5x
0
50
100
150
200
250
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
(Rs)
3.0x
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg Note (a) We have takenstand-alone consensus BVPS for our analysis
Embedded value for Sabhav has witnessed upgrades over the last couple of years;(consensus embedded value estimates: Jun-09:`15/share, Apr-10:`44/share,Nov-10: `67/share and Oct-11:`81/share). The present embedded value implies
`15.5bn valuation for SIPL, which is a 14% discount to the valuation (`18bn)ascribed by private equity investors in August 2010 while infusing `4bn for 22.2%stake. Adjusting for the consensus embedded value, Sadbhavs stock is trading at1-year forward P/E and P/B of 3.5x and 0.6x, respectively, which is a significantdiscount to its 2 year historical average.
Exhibit 15:Ex-embedded value, Sadbhav is trading at a1-year forward PE of 3.5x which is a discount of 57% toits average 2 year historical PE of 8.1x
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
11x
9x
7x
5x
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have takenconsensus data for our analysis.
Exhibit 16:Ex-embedded value, Sadbhav is trading at a1-year forward PB of 0.6x which is a discount of 58% toits average 2 year historical PB of 2.3x
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
2.5x
2x
1.5x
1x
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have takenconsensus data for our analysis.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 7
Relative valuations to its construction peersOn FY13 PE multiple, whilst including the embedded value Sadbhav trades at apremium to peers, excluding the embedded value it trades at a discount to itsconstruction peers. This highlights that market values Sadbhavs BOT assets closerto the valuation ascribed by the PE investors and at a premium to valuationascribed to peers BOT assets. However, at the same time, the relative discount
excluding embedded value signifies that market does not value the coreconstruction business materially different to peers such as IVRCL and NCC. Webelieve that going forward Sadbhavs valuations (ex-embedded value) can alsotrade at a premium to others as its relatively low debt: equity and superior costcompetitiveness enable it to bid competitively and grow faster as compared to itscapital starved peers.
Exhibit 12: Relative valuation on standalone basis including and excluding embedded values
P/E (X) P/B (X)
CMPMarket
cap
Embeddedvalue
(Oct- 11)
Embeddedvalue
includingembedded
value
excludingembedded
value
includingembedded
value
excludingembedded
value
Company/Metric
(`) (` bn) (`/share) (` bn) FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13L&T 1,227 751 398 244 17.9 15.6 12.1 10.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.8
Sadbhav 119 18 81 12 12.6 11.5 4.0 3.7 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.6
Punj Lloyd 48 16 0 0 18.9 9.7 18.9 9.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
HCC 21 13 18 11 NA NA NA 6.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
NCC 39 10 18 5 7.8 6.9 4.2 3.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2
Simplex 198 10 0 0 7.8 6.1 7.8 6.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7
IVRCL 33 9 15 4 9.1 8.9 4.9 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2
Gammon 53 7 50 7 8.9 6.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Patel 85 6 79 6 6.0 6.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
CCCL 18 3 0 0 17.6 6.8 17.6 6.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
KNR 98 3 20 1 4.9 5.4 3.9 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Average (excluding L&T and Punj) 8.7 7.2 4.7 4.0 9.3 7.3 5.4 4.1
Average 11.2 8.4 7.4 5.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research, Industry, Bloomberg, Note: (a) Share prices and market cap data is as on Nov-22, 2011 (b) We have usedour stand-alone estimates for NCC, IVRCL, CCCL and KNR and consensus estimates for others. (c) We have taken stand-alone EPS and BVPSconsensus data for L&T, Sadbhav, HCC, Gammon and Patel and consolidated consensus data for Punj Lloyd and Simplex.
Relative valuations to its road developer peers
Exhibit 13:Relative Valuation to other road developersCMP Mcap P/E P/B
Company
(`) (US$ mn) FY11E FY12E FY13E FY11E FY12E
RoEFY11
RoCEFY11
Sadbhav 119 341 11.7 9.6 8.7 1.8 1.8 15% 11%
IRB 142 896 9.7 8.8 8.9 1.6 1.4 20% 19%
Ashoka 239 239 10.9 8.5 8.0 1.2 1.1 31% 17%
ITNL 178 658 7.1 6.4 6.5 1.3 1.1 22% 72%
Average 9.8 8.3 8.0 1.5 1.3
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company, Bloomberg Note (a) Prices are as on Nov 22, 2011. (b) We have taken consolidated EPS and BVPSconsensus data our analysis.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 8
Exhibit 14:Sadbhav now trades at a justified premiumto IVRCL and NCC and a much lesser discount to L&T onthe 1-yr forward PE multiple
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
IVRCL (x) NCC (x)SADE (x) L&T (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken
consensus stand-alone data for our analysis.
Exhibit 15:On 1-yr forward PB basis, Sadbhav trades inline with IRB , but at a premium to ITNL
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
IRB(x) Sadbhav (x) ITNL (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken
consensus consolidated data for our analysis.
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 9
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Sadbhav Engineering
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 10
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return(over 12-month period from date of initial rating)
Buy >5%
Sell