AMBER/FFMP Overview COMET Basin Customization 02-03 06 August 2002 Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh...
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Transcript of AMBER/FFMP Overview COMET Basin Customization 02-03 06 August 2002 Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh...
AMBER/FFMPAMBER/FFMPOverviewOverview
COMET Basin Customization 02-03
06 August 2002
Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh NWSWFO
AWIPS Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
• AWIPS build 5.1.2 (Early 2002) the AMBER implementation of FFMP using DHR.
• Requires NSSL CD of ArcView defined watersheds and WSR-88D bin assignments.
• Provides graphic display of ABR and ABR–FFG for time periods of 30,60,90,120,180,360 minutes.
• Provides line graph of ABR,ABR Rate, and FFG for the same time periods.
• 1 level of streams supported • FFMP small subset of AMBERGIS functionality.
FFMP Graphics
• County display of CWA-maximum ABR for any stream in county displayed. Left click on Fips code to get “stream display”.
• Stream display for a county- ABR for time period selected displayed for each basin. right click on stream ID to get “line graph”.
• Line graph of ABR + ABR Rate + FFG
Worthville, PA Flash Flood
05 June 2002
Jefferson County, PA
FFMP Text Data on AWIPS
/data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp
Where @@@ is your WSR-88D ID
FFMP file archiving
• ABR file is archived to hard disk on AWIPS for current GMT day and previous day only.
• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/yyyymmdd + yyyymmdd.index for a GMT day
• Index file holds the time for each volume scan.• Date file holds the ABR data for each stream
(integer*2 data with a record length equal to 2 times the number of FFMP watersheds).
FFMP Basin Attributes
• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/basinList.dat
• /basinToCounty.dat
• /binToBasin.dat
• Radar bins are numbered consecutively from 0 to 82799 starting with radial 0.5 degrees. Bin 0 = 0.5 degrees at 0.5 km, bin 230 = 1.5 degrees at 0.5km, etc.
basinList.dat
• First line in file is number of basins (5609)
• Basin ID number in FFMP display is position in this file basin id =0 (2nd line), 1 (3rd line), 2 (4th line), 3 (5th line), etc.
• Pfafstetter ID
• Latitude/longitude of basin centroid
• Name of creek
binToBasin.dat
• First line is number of basins
• Second line is data for watershed id=0
• 1st element (number of bins assigned)
• Bin number for each assigned bin follows, if 3 bins assigned to this stream, 3 bin numbers will be listed.
• Last element: area of bin summation (km2)
basinToCounty.dat
• Number of counties on first line
• Two letter state
• County name
• County Fips code
• Number of streams assigned to this county
• List of Basin Ids assigned to this county
• County assigned by MDL lat/lon of centroid
Stream Basin Stream Basin DefinitionsDefinitions
National Basin DelineationNational Basin Delineation
• 30Sep1999 – NWS agrees to fund the AMBER National Basin Delineation project by NSSL for all of the continental United States.
• ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries.• USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by
EROS Data Center.• www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins• Continental U.S. completed June 2002.
229.5 kmRange ring
NSSL Basins 18,488Aggregated 12,784
Aggregate:Clip all basins beyond 230 kmEliminate all segments < 2 mi2
FFMP Basins5,608
NSSL CD
FFMP
Purpose of the Basin Customization Course
• To describe the content of the NSSL dataset (ArcView shapefiles and data attributes).
• To provide tools that allow the local forecast office to modify, correct, or enhance the NSSL set of defined basins.
• To demonstrate why modifications or additions may enhance the application of FFMP to the flash flood warning process.
Choices: Customization Options
• No Customization (used delivered cd)• Minor Customization (add stream names,
make minor adjustments to basins to correct errors) Must still run localization.
• Major Customization (add new streams, divided existing streams)
• Paul’s procedure for hydrologic connectivity, allows use of Paul’s tools.
Choices: Display options at WFO
• Display FFMP graphics as delivered• Run Paul Jendrowski’s AMBER for more
stream layers, 7 AWIPS radar graphic products including ABR rate + 6 user selected time periods, AMBER browser, and line graph of past 6 hours.
• Use ArcView as display for geographic information.
Areal Mean Basin Estimated Areal Mean Basin Estimated
Rainfall ( AMBER)Rainfall ( AMBER) 1990-2002 1990-2002• All watersheds in county warning area are defined
to a Minimum Basin Area (MBA) of 2 mi2 to show spatial rainfall distribution.
• The WSR-88D polar grid (1o by 1 km) is mapped to the defined watersheds.
• Average Basin Rainfall (ABR) is computed for each watershed every volume scan.
• An hourly ABR rate is determined from the single volume scan (5-6 min.) of ABR.
AMBERGIS (2000 – 2002)
• Paul Jendrowski creation using ArcView.• ABR data computed and archived (5 min).• AWIPS ABR Rate display of radar umbrella.• AWIPS ABR graphic display of radar umbrella
for 6 user selected time periods.• Line graph of ABR, ABR Rate, and FFG for each
defined stream and rain gage.• Nine layers of streams or rain gages supported.• Alert for 3 user selected levels of ABR - FFG.
Graphical Radar Graphical Radar RainfallRainfall
OHP – One hour rainfall
STP – Storm total rainfall
THP – Three hour rainfall
Storm TotalRainfall
19 May1999
Grid1o x 2km
AMBER/FFMP AMBER/FFMP Digital RainfallDigital Rainfall
AMBER/FFMP computes 5 minute rainfall using WSR-88D precipitation algorithm with Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR) product as input.
Digital Hybrid Scan Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR)Reflectivity (DHR)
• Time interval (5-6 minutes)
• Grid size (1 degree x 1 km)
• Reflectivity to the nearest 0.5 dBZ
DHR Grid Area (kmDHR Grid Area (km22) ) vs. Radar Range (km)vs. Radar Range (km)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 50 100 150 200
DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate
2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in)
.41
.38
.39 .37
.29 .14
.20
.30.16
.24
Grid size 1o x 1km
DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate
2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (mm)
.41
.38
.39 .37
.29 .14
.20
.30.16
.24
Watershed Boundary…compute ABR
Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.29
.29
.29 .29
.29 .29
.29
.29.29
.29
Copy ABR back into DHR gridfor FFMP or AMBERGIS graphics
Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.41
.38
.39 .37
.29 .14
.20
.30.16
.24
Divide watershed into segments??
Average Basin Rainfall = .29 in
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.37
.37
.37 .25
.25 .25
.25
.37.20
.20
Large variation of ABR in short distances!!
Flash Flood Index (FF)FF = ABR - FFG
Determining the Flash Flood Threat
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
• ABR in a specific time period (1, 3 hours) to initiate flooding on streams.
• Assumes stream at low flow level.
• Assumes no rainfall since data cutoff
• FFG is the amount of ABR needed to produce threshold runoff (climatic average runoff needed to start flooding of streams)
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
• FFG = TR + SM, where TR is the threshold runoff and SM is the amount of ABR needed to initiate runoff based on soil moisture content.
• Threshold runoff is constant for all watersheds 1.00” in three hours for most of eastern U.S (0.75” for western PA + WV). Ask your servicing RFC for your TR!!!
FF Index = ABR - FFGFF Index = ABR - FFGABR and FFG in inchesABR and FFG in inches
• FF0 ABR = FFG
• FF1 ABR = FFG + 1.00 inches
• FF2 ABR = FFG + 2.00 inches
• FF3 ABR = FFG + 3.00 inches
• FF4 ABR = FFG + 4.00 inches
• FF5 ABR = FFG + 5.00 inches, etc
Noble County, OH Almost a flash flood.
ABR-FFG = 0.40
12 June 2002
2235-2327 UTC
1-Hour FFG = 1.70
FFMP Graphic Productsvs.
AMBERGIS Graphics
FFMPFFG
AMBER ABR-RateAMBER 90-min ABR
AMBER 120-min ABR
AMBER 60-min ABR
Change FFG Curve
Little Pine Creek Little Pine Creek Flash FloodFlash Flood
30 May 198630 May 1986ABR-FFG=5.0ABR-FFG=5.0
Pine CreekWatershed
68 mi2
ID Name Area1000 L Pine Cr 8.31001 L Pine Cr 6.21002 Gourdhead Run 4.11003 Crouse Run 3.71004 Willow Run 4.31005 Montour Run 5.51006 NF Pine Cr 10.1 1007 Headwaters 13.9
AlleghenyRiver
Pine CreekFlash Flood
Bucket Survey(inches)
30 May 1986
24681000
1001
1002
1003
10041005
1006
1007
Little Pine Creek Little Pine Creek 30 May 1986 Area: 6.2 mi 30 May 1986 Area: 6.2 mi22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1900
1920
1940
2000
2020
2040
2100
2120
2140
2200
ABR(in)ABR Rate1hr FFG
Time (UTC)
Zion National ParkZion National ParkFlash FloodFlash Flood27 July 199827 July 1998
3.301:30
1:25
0.45
2.45
1:45
End of Trail
Start of Trail
Estimated hikingTime in hours.
Deep Creek
Kolob Creek
Goose Creek
Corral Hollow
Orderville Canyon
North ForkVirgin River
The Narrows Hiking Trail
Zion National Park,Utah
Adapted from NationalGeographic Trails
Illustrated
“The Narrows”No safe high ground
Hiking in the “Narrows”
WashingtonCounty
KaneCounty
IronCounty
OrdervilleCanyon
North Forkof the
Virgin River
Deep Creek
The Narrows
KolobCreek
EPA RF3 Data
Orderville CanyonMouth into the
Narrows
Deep Creek128.9 mi2
NF VirginRiver
70.3 mi2
Orderville Canyon41.5 mi2
KolobCreek
30.1 mi2
Goose Cr4.7 mi2
Corral Hollow2.2 mi2
Imlay Canyon3.8 mi2
NF Virgin Riverabove the Narrows285 mi2
The Narrows4.1 mi2
ABR (in) 2000-2200 UTC
27 July 1998
0.25
0.97
0.33
0
0
00
0
0.40
0 10km
KICX WSR-88D
1-hour FFG0.50
1022
1023
10241025
102610171018
1019
1020
1021
1008
1009
1011
10121015
1016
10141013
1010
1007
1005
1004
1006
1003
1002
1001
1000
KICX WSR-88D
0 10km
Deep Creek128.9 mi2
NF VirginRiver
70.3 mi2
Orderville Canyon41.5 mi2
KolobCreek
30.1 mi2
NF Virgin Riverabove the Narrows285 mi2
ABR (in) 2000-2200 UTC
27 July 1998
0
0.90
0.41
0.170.65
0.39
0.42
0.01
0.01
0.251.76
1.14
0.89
0.32
0
0
0.020.20
1.051-hour FFG
0.50
1004
Goose Creek
Corral Hollow
Imlay Canyon
North Fork ofthe Virgin River
OrdervilleCanyon
Deep Creek
KolobCreek
1001
1002
1003
10051006
1007
1008
1009
1010
1017
1011
1012
1013 1014
1015 1016
1018
1019
1020
1021
1022
1023
1024
1025
1026
17.0 17.9
14.3 16.9 19.5
12.9
15.8
10.1 10.1
5.6
4.4
6.5
6.5
11.2
18.0
19.9
22.1
3.8
2.01.7
5.2
5.9
10.0
13.5
1000
North Fork of the Virgin River
above the Narrows
xx.x = milesabove trail head
The Narrows
Deep Creek (5) #101427July1998 30.8 mi2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1950
1955
2000
2005
2011
2017
2023
2029
2035
2041
2046
2052
2058
2104
ABR RateABR
Maximum Bin 176o at 20 km27July1998
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
Maximum rainfall on Storm Total Product 3.14 in.
WashingtonCounty
Kane County
1000
10179.3 mi2
101818.4 mi2
101913.6 mi2
102015.1 mi2
102113.9 mi2
North Fork of theVirgin River
above the Narrows70.3 mi2
0.97
ABR (in)27 July 1998
2011-2133 UTC
0
0.251.76
1.14
0.89
0.32
1000 “The Narrows”1017-1021 NF
Virgin River (1-5)
3.14
NF Virgin River (2) #101827July1998 18.4 mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
WashingtonCounty, UT
Kane County, UT
1000 10171018
1019
1020
1021
50085009
50035004
5005 5006
5001
5002
5000
5012
5011
5010
5007
NF Virgin River Subdivisions5000-5002 Straight Canyon(1-3)5003-5005 NF Virgin River(2-4)5006 Willow Canyon5007 Hay Canyon5008 Simon Gulch5009 NF Virgin River(1)5010 Rosy Canyon5011 Stevens Canyon5012 Ashdown Canyon
0.711.24
0.56
1.441.88
1.921.81
0.91
0.09
0.54
0.49
0.32
0.22
ABR27 July 1998
2017-2133 UTC
3.14
NF Virgin River(2) #500327July1998 5.4 mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
NF Virgin River(3) #500427July1998 7.4 mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
NF Virgin River(4) #500527July1998 5.5mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
Willow Canyon #500627July1998 4.4 mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
Straight Canyon(2) #500127July1998 6.1mi2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
ABR RateABR
ABR Rates NF Virgin River27July1998
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2011
2023
2035
2046
2058
2110
2122
2133
2145
50015006500550045003
AMBER SummaryAMBER Summary• ABR provides basin specific rainfall to
determine flash flood risk (ABR-FFG)• ABR rate focuses forecaster attention on
critical streams before flooding occurs.• History (6-72 hours) of ABR helpful in
adjusting FFG for multiple rainfall events.• Basin specific ABR allows forecaster to
mention “threat area” in warning text.
AMBER Data SourcesAMBER Data Sources• ArcView and the spatial analyst extension.
www.esri.com
• USGS Data (3 arc second DEM data) edcwww.cr.usgs.gov
• EPA Data (RF3 data files) www.epa.gov/OST/BASINS/gisdata.html
AMBER Case StudiesAMBER Case Studieswww.nws.noaa.gov/er/pit/amberslides.htmwww.nws.noaa.gov/er/pit/amberslides.htm
• buff.ppt 13Jul96
• epgh99.ppt 18May99
• pitcairn.ppt 01Jul97
• zion.ppt 27Jul98
• ohio98.ppt 26Jun98
• redbank.ppt 19Jul96
• dallas95.ppt 05May95
• ftc97.ppt 28Jul97
• kc1998.ppt 05Oct98
• Buffalo Creek, CO
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Cedar City, UT
• Eastern Ohio
• Brookville, PA*
• Dallas, TX*
• Fort Collins, CO*
• Kansas City, MO* * Tropical Z/R Cases