Alumina Ltd

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   Alumina Limited  ABN 85 004 820 419 GPO Box 5411 Melbourne Vic 3001  Australia Level 12 IBM Centre 60 City Road Southbank Vic 3006  Australia Tel +61 (0)3 8699 2600 Fax +61 (0)3 8699 2699 Email [email protected]  ASX Announcement 20 February 2014 Alumina Limited 2013 Full Year Result Presentation  Attached is a pres entation relatin g to Alumina Li mited’s Full Year Results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013. Stephen Foster Company Secretary 20 February 2014 o p s o  u e o y

Transcript of Alumina Ltd

GPO Box 5411 Melbourne Vic 3001  Australia
Level 12 IBM Centre 60 City Road Southbank Vic 3006  Australia
Tel +61 (0)3 8699 2600 Fax +61 (0)3 8699 2699 Email [email protected]
 ASX Announcement  20 February 2014
Alumina Limited 2013 Full Year Result Presentation
 Attached is a presentation relating to Alumina Limited’s Full Year Results for the 12 months
ended 31 December 2013.
Stephen Foster Company Secretary
Alumina Limited
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Disclaimer
This presentation is not a prospectus or an offer of securities for subscription or sale in any jurisdiction.
Some statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements also include those containing such words as “anticipate”, “estimates”, “should”, “will”, “expects”, plans” or similar expressions. Forward -looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to be different from the forward- looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements include: (a) material adverse changes in global economic, alumina or aluminium industry conditions and the markets served by AWAC; (b) changes in production and development costs and
 production levels or to sales agreements; (c) changes in laws or regulations or policies; (d) changes in alumina and aluminium prices and currency exchange rates; (e) constraints on the availability of bauxite; and (f) the risk factors and other factors summarised in Alumina’s Form 20 -F for the year ended 31 December 2012.
Forward-looking statements that reference past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will necessarily continue in the future. Alumina Limited does not undertake any obligations to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date of the relevant document.
This presentation contains certain non-IFRS financial information. This information is presented to assist in making appropriate comparisons with prior year and to assess the operating performance of the business. Where non-IFRS measures are used, definition of the measure, calculation method and/or reconciliation to IFRS financial information is provided as appropriate.
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NPAT/(NLAT) 0.5 (55.6) 56.2
Net Alba charge (16.5) (34.0) 17.5
Total Dividend Paid (US cps) 0 0 0
Net Debt 135.2 664.4 (529.2)
AWAC
Revenue 5,884.6 5,815.3 69.3
Cash Dividends and distributions
Result reflects:
  Lower corporate costs
  Lower finance costs due to debt reduction after share placement and free cash
  Settlement of Alba legal matters
FY 2013 – Alumina Limited & AWAC
(1)  Adjusted EBITDA per tonne produced from Alcoa Inc’s alumina segment (source: Alcoa Inc 4Q 2013 Results slide pack).  Alcoa Inc alumina segment is predominately AWAC operations, of which Alumina Limited owns 40%. 
AWAC:
Continued productivity gains & cost control
Increased dividends and distributions
EBITDA per tonne(1) $45 $31 $14
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Revenue increased $69m higher than last year
Principally due to higher alumina shipments
Lower average realised prices
Total expenses decreased, before significant items $238m lower than last year
Reflects currency and productivity gains and cost control
AWAC 2013 results
Sales revenue 3,770.8 3,645.0 125.8
Related party revenue 2,113.8 2,170.3 (56.5)
Total Revenue 5,884.6 5,815.3 69.3
COGS and operating expenses (5,088.9) (5,284.8) 195.9
Depreciation and Amortisation (447.1) (478.9) 31.8
Net Interest (6.9) (2.2) (4.7)
Selling, Admin, R&D, Other (526.8) (195.0) (331.8)
Total Expenses (6,069.7) (5,960.9) (108.8)
Loss before Tax (185.1) (145.6) (39.5)
Income Tax (charge)/credit (63.6) 53.7 (117.3)
Net Loss after Tax (248.7) (91.9) (156.8)
EBITDA 268.9 335.5 (66.6)
 Anglesea maintenance (32) 0 (32)
Goodwill impairment (Eastern Al) (30) 0 (30)
Other (13) (27) 14
 
6 (1) Reversal of: $85m Alba civil charge, $9m long service leave adjustment and $18m asset write offs
(2) Comprises of: $384m Alba legal matters, $32m Anglesea maintenance, $30m goodwill impairment of Eastern Aluminium Ltd and $13m asset write offs
Improved underlying performance before significant items 
Revenue higher due to:
  Higher alumina shipments; and
  Lower aluminium shipments; and
COGS, GASE & Other lower, mainly due to:
  Cost control and productivity initiatives; and
  Stronger US dollar
AWAC performance bridge
Revenue COGS, GASE &
Market prices (US$ per tonne) 2013 2012
 Ave. alumina spot, one month lag(4)  327 317
 Ave. 3-month LME, two month lag(5)  1,927 2,057
Spot/LME% 17.0% 15.4%
Source: (4) Platts (Dec to Nov Year) (5) Thomson Reuters
(1) 3rd  party smelter grade alumina (2) Chart depicts variances based off legacy contract terms (3) API:LME refers to the proportion of smelter grade alumina sales that is split between API/spot and LME based pricing  
Benefit from pricing conversion
 API/spot prices outperformed LME
c.54% priced on API/spot
 API/ Spot Price
Legacy LME Price
 
8* Sources: Alumina, Platts Alumina (FOB Australia) February 2014, LME Aluminium: Thomson Reuters February 2014
Spot less volatile than LME
Spot reflects alumina fundamentals
  Finance deals
Pricing of smelter grade alumina
Transition to spot based pricing continues
 At least 80% in 2016
Spot vs LME*  
AWAC Pricing Transition
LME Aluminium (3-month)
Portion of AWAC SGA shipments on LME/other pricing basis
Portion of AWAC SGA shipments on alumina spot or index pricing basis
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Helped by rise in US dollar
Lower fuel oil and productivity offset higher natural gas prices
Caustic prices lower
Bauxite costs impacted by the crusher move in Australia and higher costs in Suriname
Conversion assisted by increased production
AWAC cash cost of alumina production
Cost of Alumina Production Per Tonne (basic units)(1) 
(1) Defined as direct materials and labour, energy, indirect materials, indirect expenses, excluding depreciation. Movements can relate to usage, unit costs or combination of both, timing of maintenance, seasonal factors, levels of production and the number of production days and refinery mix
Alumina EBITDA currency sensitivities 2014F
 AUD impact of +$0.01 to the USD/AUD c.($1.40/t)
BRL impact of +$0.01 to the BRL/USD c.$0.10/t
100.0
94.5
(1.9)
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Point Comfort production higher due to improved plant stability
16.1mt shipments exceeded production
  Catch up on December 2012 delayed shipments, reducing inventory levels
Expect 16mt of production for 2014
AWAC alumina production
Annual Production (mt)
Spain 2013
Majority spent in Australia
Expect $240m for 2014
Expect $25m for 2014
Ma’aden equity contributions
Expect $29m contribution for 2014
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Improvement in operations and working capital
Includes significant items (pre-tax)
  $32.0m Anglesea maintenance
• $42.5m Alba civil first instalment
• Government assistance for Victorian operations
(1) Free cash flow defined as cash from operations less capital expenditure 
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(133) 
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Capital expenditure (323) (375) 52
Free cash flow(1) 310 (133) 443
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Significant item (pre-tax) affected results
Other income reduces Alumina Limited’s exposure to Alba matter to 15%
Lower general and administration costs
Lower finance costs
Alumina Limited 2013 results
(1)  Other Income of $137.1 million (representing 25% of the total Alba related charges) recognised in the Profit or Loss. (2)  Free cash flow defined as cash from operations less net investments in associates 
Improvement in free cash flow
Received $100m fully franked dividends from  AWAC
Investments relate to Ma’aden 
  No working capital support provided
Free Cash Flow(2) 
Dividends and distributions received 107.3 95.1 12.2
Costs (Interest, corporate, other) (39.8) (46.5) 6.7
Cash from Operations 67.5 48.6 18.9
Payments to Investments in  Associates
(9.0) (171.0) 162.0
Profit and Loss
Equity Share of AWAC Underlying LAT  (97.4) (7.5) (89.9)
Other Income(1)  137.1 0 137.1
General & Admin Costs (17.2) (19.0) 1.8
Finance Costs (25.3) (29.4) 4.1
Other & Tax 3.3 0.3 3.0
Net Profit/(Loss) After Tax 0.5 (55.6) 56.1
Embedded Derivative, AWAC (3.2) (6.4) 3.2
Underlying Loss (2.7) (62.0) 59.3
IFRS US$m 2013 2012
Other income(1) 137 0
 Anglesea maintenance (13) 0
Gearing is 4.6%(1) 
Net Debt Changes (US$m)
Debt Profile – 31/12/13 (US$m) Sufficient facilities beyond 2014
Terminated $695m of bank facilities in 2013
Entered into $300m of new bank facilities with improved terms
(1)  Calculated as (debt – cash)/(debt + equity) 
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(107)
(467)
(5)
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Key considerations
 AWA LLC debt funding is expected to be no more than c.$126m (22% of total cost)
  37.5% of DoJ, IRS, SEC and Civil; less
  62.5% of Legals etc, which have previously been paid from available cash
 Alcoa Inc responsible for the balance
 AWA LLC already repaid $17m of debt relating to first instalment of Civil settlement
 AWA LLC’s future debt repayments not expected to affect distributions from other AWAC entities
Alba related transaction costs
Legals, etc 79.5 31.8(2) (19.9) 11.9 (19.9)
Total 548.5 219.4 (137.1) 82.2 16.5
(1)  Already or predominately taken up by 2012. (2)  Estimated figure
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   AWAC charges of c.$250m post tax (IFRS) expected
• c.$240m in 2014
   AWAC cash costs of c.$120m post tax expected
• c.$50m in 2014
• balance relates to demolition; environmental; holding costs, net of scrap proceeds
 Anglesea coal mine and power station will be marketed for sale
Portland will continue operating
Refinery portfolio running reliably at c.92% capacity
Conversion to alumina API/spot delivering benefits
Controllable costs well managed and more savings expected
Currency benefits
Outlook for AWAC in 2014
Challenges for alumina and aluminium prices
Continued focus on cost reduction and productivity
Reduced sustaining and growth capex
Point Henry closure costs
Ma’aden mine and refinery costs as plant readies for production 
Alumina Limited in 2014
 AWAC receipts expected to be not significantly different to 2013, subject to market
Undertaking reduction in general overheads
$29m capital contribution for Ma’aden 
Potential capital injection for San Ciprian
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NORTH AMERICA
WESTERN EUROPE
OCEANIA
Emerging markets & light weighting of vehicles driving long-term demand growth
Chart: Harbor Aluminium, February 2014 (1)  AWC estimate based on 2-3 tonnes of bauxite per tonne of alumina
Growth is equivalent to c.8.7m tonnes per annum
Estimated 8% CAGR
  China represents 10% CAGR
Growth is equivalent to additional 70-105m tonnes per annum of bauxite by 2017(1)
  Equivalent to 4 to 6 new mines of similar size to MRN
(million mtons)
Third party customers include those in China, India & Middle East
AWAC is a significant supplier of alumina to third party customers
60% 
Supplied to Alcoa
smelters 
Proportion of AWAC third party sales in 2013 Global third party metallurgical
alumina demand growth forecasts
Third party demand forecast to grow faster than total market
Estimated 9% CAGR
Global Third Party Alumina Demand Chart: Harbor Aluminium, February 2014
(million mtons)
ROW
CHINA
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New ex-China capacity subject to long lead times & significant delays
Table: Harbor Aluminum, February 2014. Numbers are thousands of tonnes 
Region Country Company Refinery 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Type Comments
Asia ex China
 AWAC- Ma’aden 
Ras Al Khair 1,500 300 Greenfield Commissioning on track for Q4 2014
India Hindalco Utkal-Salampur, Orissa
1,500 Greenfield Commissioned in 2013 and in the process of ramping-up
 Anrak Anrak Alumina 1,500 Greenfield Commissioning high likely delayed to 2015
Vedanta Lanjigarh 2,035 Brownfield The expansion is on hold due to inability to secure long term bauxite supply. The company has not been able to mine bauxite at some sites
Hindalco-  Adilya
Orissa 1,500 Greenfield
Nalco Damanjodi 1,000 Brownfield  Approval for mining lease received from Govt of Odisha. DPR under preparation
Vietnam Vinacomin Lam Dong 600 Greenfield Production started last year, after various delays. Already exporting to China
Vinacomin Nhan Co 650 Greenfield Likely to experience delays
Indonesia PT Antam Mempawah, West Kalimantan
1,200 Greenfield The project is on feasibility study. The company is still looking for JV partners. Estimated to start commercial operation in 2016. Possible delays
Hongqiao Group
Well Harvest Winning Alumina
1,000 1,000 Greenfield First 1mt phase scheduled to start in 2015 . Second 1mt phase scheduled for 2017
Bosai Group
Latin America
Brazil Hydro
 Aluminium CAP 1,860 Greenfield
The 1.86mt project has been shelved by the company amid “market conditions”. Commissioning year high likely to be beyond 2016
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Evolving conditions
   Aluminium stocks still remain elevated in LME and non-LME warehouses
• LME modified proposal: LME warehouses to cut queues of over 50 calendar days from 1 April 2014
  If low interest rates gradually increase or traders monetise high premiums, then some metal likely to come out of warehouses and reduce elevated premiums
  In the medium term, lower levels of inventory are likely to lead to pricing reflecting the economics of the industry
 As AWAC moves more alumina sales to index pricing, LME price has less impact on AWAC
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125
175
225
275
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375
425
Jan-11 Jul -11 Jan-12 Jul -12 Jan-13 Jul -13 Jan-14
JAPAN
WEST
EUROPE
DUTY
PAID     (   U    S     $     /    m    t   o    n    o     f    a     l   u    m    i   n    u    m     )
1 July 2013:
Aluminum ingot premiums have risen as financing conditions remain favourable
Chart: Harbor Aluminium, February 2014
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Higher domestic bauxite prices increase alumina cost of production
Chart: Value in Use adjusted domestic and imported bauxite prices (in nominal dollar values), CM Group, February 2014 
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DEC 2013
AUSTRALIA: $57
INDIA: $61
INDONESIA: $52
BAUXITE FROM THE ATLANTIC BASIN HAS HIGHER FREIGHT COST
BAUXITE FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN HAS LOWER FREIGHT COST
Cost of bauxite from the Atlantic basin remains higher than Pacific
$/mton CIF China
China bauxite import costs have also risen
China bauxite import prices up 24% from May 2012 (when Indonesia introduced export restrictions) until December 2013
Chart: Chinese Imported Bauxite Cost, HARBOR Aluminium with China Customs Data, February 2014 
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come from Indonesia
Indonesian supply disruption to impact volumes and prices given previous reliance
Indonesian bauxite export ban commenced on 12 January 2014
• Upcoming Indonesian Parliamentary (April) and Presidential (July) elections may result in policy changes
Potential bauxite cost push due to: • Ban/restrictions on Indonesian
exports • Higher taxes • More regulation • Higher freight costs given sources
are more distant or due to rise in freight costs
China seeking to diversify supply sources
Chart: China Bauxite Imports, CM Group, February 2014 
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Long-term bauxite imports into China
Importing to be driven by issues relating to local bauxite allocation & quality
Import volumes forecast to grow, as depletion begins to impact domestic supply
Chart: Forecast China Bauxite Imports, CM Group, February 2014. Note: Import levels greater than actuals required are included in Shandong
2013: Imports spiked in advance of Indonesian export ban
2014: Imports forecast to fall on Indonesian restrictions and inventory drawdown
2017 onwards: Demand for imported bauxite to increase as domestic refinery reserves are depleted
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New bauxite projects needed to meet future demand
Source: Bauxite demand and supply, 2012 to 2035 , CRU's Bauxite Long Term Market Outlook, 2013 edition
Supply-demand gap expected to develop from 2015
Bauxite is globally plentiful, but of differing quality and development and financing is becoming slower/harder
• Government approvals
• Nationalistic policies & taxes
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Short term drivers on alumina market
Source for chart & commentary: Platts, January 2014
   P    l  a    t   t  s   a    l  u   m    i  n   a  ,
   F    O    B    A   u   s    t  r  a    l   i  a    (   U    S    $    /   t   )
Jan-June 2012
alumina High Chinese alumina prices
make Aust attractive (Apr-Aug) - Caustic price spike (Jan-Mar) -LME Al jumps
$300/t
Brent crude falls $31/bbl (May-June)
LME Al drops nearly $500/t (March-June)
Aug-Dec 2012
Chinese buyers absorb Atlantic longs
Brent crude regains $28/bbl June-August
Jan-Feb 2013
Low Chinese prices (importers resell contracted cargoes)
LME Al pressured by macroeconomic woes
Sep 2012-Feb
Smelter cuts (India, Malaysia)
Vedanta restarts alumina China imports fall, reselling LME Al falls to 4-year low  Alunorte refinery cuts
Aug-Oct 2013
Kwinana)
Gove refinery suspension announced
Smelter restarts (Saudi  Arabia, Malaysia) Smelter capacity
reviews (Europe, US, South Africa)
Pre-Chinese New Year lull period
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Quantity of imports reflects no current pricing arbitrage with RoW
China and RoW acting as two distinct alumina markets interacting through imports into China
China alumina imports fell in 1H 2013 due to lower alumina production costs in China
No alumina exports from China due to: • no VAT export rebate • land and sea freight cost
disadvantage • China alumina generally
bagged creating logistical issues
Chart: CMAAX vs Aust FOB adjusted, CM Group, February 2014
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Chart: Alumina Cash Cost, excluding VAT, CM Group, February 2014
China refinery cash cost curve by province
Shandong is global marginal producer & with 20m tonnes of capacity
Shandong dependent on imported bauxite
Central provinces facing bauxite quality and allocation issues and could begin to import in near future
Cost of processing bauxite is increasing
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Bauxite Mine: ~52% complete
 Alumina Refinery: ~77% complete
  on track to produce first alumina in 4Q14
  will be one of the lowest cost refineries in  AWAC portfolio
 Alumina Limited equity contributions
  net $9m in FY13
  further contributions approx. $29m in 2014
4m tonnes per annum bauxite mine & 1.8m tonnes per annum alumina refinery
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• $107m in distributions and dividends from AWAC, with minimal contributions
AWAC: Improved financial performance despite difficult market
  Continued successful transition to spot/index pricing with ~54% of SGA shipments in FY13
  Reduced alumina production costs through stronger US$, tight cost control, including productivity gains
AWAC outlook has positives
  Pricing transition to continue: ~65% of SGA shipments expected to be on spot/index basis in FY14
  Ma’aden: To be one of the lowest cost AWAC refineries with AWAC share of ~450kt, production expected to start in 4Q14
  Costs to fall with ongoing productivity expected and weaker A$ and BRL will reduce US$ costs
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Alumina Limited
AWAC: global leader in bauxite and alumina
AWAC is premier owner & operator of tier 1 bauxite mines and alumina refineries
Alumina Limited is a unique pure investment in AWAC  (2)
(1)  Greenfield project that is expected to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2014 (2)  AWAC is a joint venture between Alumina Limited (40%) and Alcoa Inc (60%)
Point Comfort
San Ciprian 
Ma’aden(1) 
 AWAC is well positioned with long-life mines and nearly all AWAC mines are integrated with its refineries
 AWAC mined c.40m tonnes of bauxite in 2013
 As bauxite prices increase, AWAC’s mines become more valuable
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Australia Kwinana Pinjarra Wagerup
52%
Brazil Alumar
AWAC (39%) Rio Tinto Alcan Inc (10%) Aluminio (15%) BHP Billiton (36%)
1.4 8%
Jamaica Jamalco AWAC (55%) Alumina Production Ltd (Government of Jamaica) (45%)
0.8 5%
US Point Comfort
Total 17.2 100%
(1) Nameplate capacity is an estimate based on design capacity and normal operating efficiencies and does not necessarily represent maximum possible production. Excludes additional creep opportunities
Currently operating at c.92% of nameplate capacity(1)
Additional c.450,000 tonnes once Ma’aden is completed 
World’s largest alumina producer
Low cash cost producer
Refineries in Australia, Brazil, Jamaica and Suriname are integrated with mines
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Metallurgical refining cash cost curve
Chart: Global Metallurgical Alumina Refining Output Cash Cost Curve 4Q13, Harbor Aluminium, January 2014. *Excludes applicable VAT of 17% that Chinese alumina refiners pay on raw materials, energy and services
AWAC is a low cash cost producer of alumina
% capacity
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interests (US GAAP)  41m (29m)
GAAP adjustments(1):
Other 3m (4m)
Alumina underlying (loss)/earnings (pre funding and corporate costs) (4) 40m (14m)
(1) The combined financial statements of the entities forming AWAC are prepared in accordance with US GAAP. Adjustments are made to
convert the accounting policies under US GAAP to AAS (2)  The Foreign Tax Differences includes AWC’s 40% of the recognition of Brazil deferred tax credit adjustment (3)  Underlying earnings are calculated by excluding the impact of fair value movements for embedded derivatives contained in AWAC energy
contracts that are linked to the LME price of aluminium
Reconciliation to Alcoa Reporting Alcoa reported “net income attributable to non-controlling interests” 
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