Alternate Fuel Tracker Aug 2011
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Alternate Fuel Tracker August 2011
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Consumers Lean Toward Smaller Cars As Prices Rise: Survey Rising fuel prices generally lead customers to look for smaller cars. If prices rise more dramatically, they might consider cars that use alternate fuels. But if fuel prices shoot up, demand for new cars could drop at double-digit rates. This is a prospect that no vehicle manufacturer wants to consider. The U.S. auto market could shrink 18% if gas prices hit $6 a gallon, according to TechnoMetrica's latest wave of the Alternate Fuel Tracker. The first line of defense by consumers to higher gas prices would be to downsize from their current size vehicle. Exploring alternate fuels is only the second alternative. Before the onset of the last recession, automakers sold about 16-million units each year. The average volume for the past three years is approximately 12-million units per year. Higher gas prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles of the already vulnerable auto industry. TechnoMetrica studied consumer reaction to two hypothetical price points for gasoline, $5 a gallon and $6 a gallon. The study was conducted in August. The impact of $6 a gallon is dramatic — it would seriously affect nearly 60% of Americans. Over one-third (36%) said they would downsize to a smaller auto; nearly one in five (18%) wouldn't buy a vehicle; another 6% said they aren't sure. The biggest beneficiaries? Subcompacts, which would see their share of market jump from 4% now to 13% at $6 a gallon, and compacts whose share surges from 15% to 25%. The biggest losers would be SUVs, whose share would plunge from 23% to 9%. Pickups would also lose share (from 13% to 5%). Five dollars a gallon hits nearly half (48%) of all Americans. As at the $6 level, over a third (36%) would downsize to a smaller auto; nearly one in 10 (9%) wouldn't buy a car if gas hit $5 a gallon; 3% aren't sure. The demand grows substantially for subcompacts (4% to 11%) and compacts (15% to 29%). SUV demand takes an 11-point hit (23% to 12%) and demand for pickups drops eight points (13% to 5%). At today's $3.70 a gallon, 84% would consider a traditional gas vehicle, 41% a hybrid like the Toyota Prius, 32% a natural gas powered vehicle like the Honda GSX, 21% a plug-in hybrid like the Chevy Volt, 17% a diesel vehicle, and 15% a pure electric vehicle like the Nissan Leaf. The preference for traditional gasoline vehicles plunges from 84% at $3.70 to 64% at $5 a gallon. It falls further to 47% at $6 a gallon. The demand stays relatively stable for the other alternate fuels at different price levels. For example, 15% of Americans would consider an electric car at $3.70, 21% at $5, and 23% at $6.00. The desire for hybrid is also flat — 41% at $3.70, 47% at $5, and 42% at $6. So what do all these data mean? Consumers will "downsize" rather than buy vehicles that run on alternate fuel, if per-gallon gasoline prices were to climb sharply.
Transcript of Alternate Fuel Tracker Aug 2011
Alternate Fuel TrackerAugust 2011
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Background• TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence is a full service market intelligence
consulting firm founded in 1992. Our clients include a large number of the world’s most respected brands in several industry segments: CNN, NBC, State Farm, and some of the world’s most respected automobile companies.
• Our polling arm, identified by the acronym TIPP (TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics) conducts monthly surveys of American opinion for Investor’s Business Daily – the nation’s fastest growing financial publication – and the Pulitzer Prize-winning Christian Science Monitor.
• TIPP is well-known for its Economic Optimism Index and is closely followed by both the Stock and Currency markets.
• TIPP was the most accurate pollster in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections in a field of 16 firms.
• TIPP conducts more than 1000 telephone interviews each month to provide the most current data points on how Americans are thinking.
• Since 2007 TIPP has included a series of questions on people’s car buying intentions and preferences . This information, both current and historic, can be used to help manufacturers and suppliers anticipate automotive purchase behavior in the coming months. As a product, it is known as the Auto Demand Index.
• As a further aid to the automotive industry, TechnoMetrica has also developed an Alternate Fuel Tracker which is published quarterly and designed to monitor customer buying preferences by fuel type, vehicle segment, customer attributes, and geography.
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Methodology
• Random Digit Dial (RDD) Telephone Survey• Conducted August 2011• Sample size = 1,000+ Americans age 18 or older
yielding 827 drivers• Margin of error = +/- 3 percentage points
Likelihood To ConsiderBy Fuel Type
5
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
84%
64%
47%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Traditional Gas Vehicle
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
41%47%
42%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Gasoline-Electric Hybrid Vehicle
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
32% 31% 29%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Natural Gas Vehicle
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
8
0%
20%
40%
60%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.000%
20%
40%
60%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
21%26% 28%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Plug-In Hybrid (EREV)
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
9
0%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.000%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
17% 17%15%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Diesel Vehicle
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
10
0%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
Current/$3.70
$5.00 $6.00
15%
21%23%
Current/ $3.70 $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Electric Vehicle
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
Likelihood To ConsiderBy Vehicle Type
12
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
25%19%
15%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Mid Size Car
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
13
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
14%
28%25%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Compact Car
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
14
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
4%
11%13%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Sub-Compact Car
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
May 2008Currently owned
8%
$6 per gallon
22%
15
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
14%
6%4%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Full Size Car
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
16
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
12%
5% 5%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Pick-up
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
17
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
7%5% 5%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Minivan
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
18
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
13%
8%5%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Small SUV
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
19
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
10%
20%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
10%
3% 3%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider Large SUV
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
20
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
0%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.000%
20%
40%
CurrentlyOwn
$5.00 $6.00
23%
11%8%
Currently Own $5.00 $6.00
Likelihood To Consider All SUV
Overall
Light Drivers Moderate Drivers
Heavy Drivers
21
Impact Of $5.00 Per Gallon Gas: Demand Flow
Five Dollar Level
Current Vehicle
Sub-compact
Compact
Mid-Size
Full-Size
Minivan
Pick-up
All SUV Quit Not sure
TOTAL
Sub-compact
2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 %
0 % 0 %
4%
Compact 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 15%
Mid-Sized 4% 7% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 25%
Full-Sized 1% 3% 3% 5% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 14%
Minivan 0% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
Pick-up 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 5% 0% 1% 0% 13%
All SUV 1% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 10% 1% 1% 23%
TOTAL 11% 29% 20% 6% 5% 5% 12% 9% 3% 100%Top 6 Downward Movement
Mid-size to Compact 7%
Mid-size to Sub-Compact
4%
SUV to Compact 4%
Full-Size to Mid-Size 3%
Full-Size to Compact 3%
SUV to Mid-size 3%
Impact
Downsize 36%
Quit 9%
Not Sure 3%
TOTAL 48%
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Impact Of $6.00 Per Gallon Gas: Demand Flow
Six Dollar Level
Current Vehicle
Sub-compact
Compact
Mid-Size
Full-Size
Minivan
Pick-up
All SUV Quit Not sure
TOTAL
Sub-compact
2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 %
1 % 0 %
4%
Compact 2% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 15%
Mid-Sized 5% 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 1% 25%
Full-Sized 1% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 14%
Minivan 0% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 7%
Pick-up 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 3% 0% 13%
All SUV 2% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 8% 3% 2% 23%
TOTAL 13% 25% 15% 5% 5% 5% 9% 18% 6% 100%Top 6 Downward Movement
Mid-size to Compact 6%
Mid-size to Sub-Compact
5%
SUV to Compact 5%
Full-Size to Mid-Size 3%
Pick-up to Compact 2%
SUV to Mid-size 2%
Impact
Downsize 36%
Quit 18%
Not Sure 6%
TOTAL 60%
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Conclusions• When this survey was done, gas was approximately
30¢/gallon more than today, so the intentions to purchase alternate fuel and smaller vehicles are probably higher than they are today.
• As prices for gas rise, people will first change the size of vehicle they purchase, then change the type of fuel (or a combination of both).
• As fuel prices reach $5 and $6/gallon, the new car market in total could shrink by 10% and 20% respectively.
• The actual demand for alternate fuel vehicles is not developing at the same rate as the availability of new vehicles.
• This will be a major marketing problem as availability exceeds demand.
• Manufacturers must start educating, cultivating, and building relationships with alternate fuel vehicle prospects.
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High Value Analysis Opportunities
• Our full report for the Alternate Fuel Tracker provides high value analysis using variables such as:– Current Vehicle– Household Income (Affluent Focus)– Region (Traditional Census-Based and Proprietary
Manufacturer Definition)– Area Type (Urban, Suburban, Rural)– Age– Gender– Race/Ethnicity – Marital and Parental Status
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• Given below are samples of studies we have conducted in the past 20 years for the automobile industry:– EPA Certification Studies (Current Clients include Volvo, Land
Rover, and Jaguar)– Dealer Satisfaction Research (BMW, MINI and Volvo)– Auto Clinics– Vehicle Pricing Research (Volvo XC90 Pricing was Developed by
TechnoMetrica)– Branding Research– Promotional Research (Incentives for Test Drives, Impact of
Sponsoring Events)– Syndicated Studies on Topics Such As CPO, Auto Financing, and
Telematics– Demand Index for SEMA (Specialty Equipment Manufacturers
Association)
Auto Industry Services Provided by TechnoMetrica
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Contact Information
• Speaker: Raghavan Mayur• Organization: TechnoMetrica Market
Intelligence• Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite
1001 Ramsey, NJ 07446
• Telephone: 201-986-1288/800-328-8324• Fax: 201-986-0119• Email: [email protected]
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