Almond e Genco 1977
-
Upload
davi-arruda -
Category
Documents
-
view
237 -
download
0
Transcript of Almond e Genco 1977
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 1/35
Cambridge University Press and Trustees of Princeton University are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and
extend access to World Politics.
http://www.jstor.org
Trustees of rinceton University
Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of PoliticsAuthor(s): Gabriel A. Almond and Stephen J. GencoSource: World Politics, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Jul., 1977), pp. 489-522Published by: Cambridge University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2010037
Accessed: 15-08-2014 21:49 UTC
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available athttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of contentin a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship.For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 2/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS,
AND
THE
STUDY
OF
POLITICS
By GABRIEL A. ALMOND and STEPHEN J.GENCO*
IN
its
eagerness o become
scientific,
olitical cience
has in recent
decades ended
o ose
contactwith tsontological ase.
t has tended
to treat olitical
vents
nd
phenomena
s natural vents
ending
hem-
selves o
the ameexplanatory
ogic
as is found n physics
nd the
other
hard sciences.
his tendencymay
be understood
n
part
as
a
phase
n
the scientificevolution,s a diffusion,ntwosteps, fontologicalnd
methodological
ssumptions
romthe strikingly
uccessful
ard
sci-
ences: first o psychology
nd economics,
nd then
fromthesebell-
wether
human
sciences o sociology,
nthropology,olitical
science,
and even
history.
n adopting he
agenda
of
hard science,
he social
sciences,
nd political
cience
n
particular,
ere
encouraged y the
neopositivist
chool
f
the
philosophy
f
science
which
egitimated
his
assumption
of ontological
and
meta-methodological
omogeneity.
Morerecently,omephilosophersfscience nd somepsychologistsnd
economists
ave had
second
houghts
bout
theapplicability
o
human
subject
matters
f
strategy
sed
in hard science.
t
may
be useful
o
bring hese
rguments
o the attention
f
political
cientists.
POPPER
S
METAPHORS
Karl
Popper,
who
along
with R. B.
Braithwaite,
arl
Hempel,
and
ErnestNagel has arguedthethesis
f
meta-methodologicalomoge-
neity,more
recently
as stressed he
heterogeneity
f
reality,
nd its
unamenabilityo
a
single
model
of scientific
xplanation.
e
uses the
metaphor
f
clouds and
clocks
to
represent
he
commonsense otions
of
determinacy
nd indeterminacy
n
physical
ystems.
e asks us to
imagine
continuum
tretching
rom
he
most
rregular,
isorderly,
and unpredictable
clouds"
n the eft
o the
most
egular,
rderly,
nd
predictable
clocks"
n
the
right.
s the
best
xample
f
a
deterministic
system ear theclock-extreme,oppercites hesolarsystem. oward
this nd
of the continuum
e
would find
uch
phenomena
s
pendu-
lums,
precision
locks,
nd
motor
ars.As
an
example
f
a
system
ear
the
other,
ndeterminate,
nd of the
continuum,
e
cites
a
cluster f
gnats
or small
flies
n which each
insectmoves
randomly xcept
hat
*
An
earlier
version
f
this
paper
was delivered
t the
Edinburgh
PSA
Congress,
August
976.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 3/35
490 WORLD POLITICS
it turns
ack
oward he enter hen t strays
oofar
rom
he warm.
Near this xtreme e wouldfind as clouds, heweather,chools
f
fish, uman ocietiesnd,perhaps bit loser oward he enter,ndi-
vidualhuman eings nd animals.
The Newtonianevolutionn physicsopularizedhenotion-which
was to persist orapproximately50 years-that
hiscommonsense
arrangementas n error. he successfNewton'sheory
n
explaining
andpredictingmultitudefcelestialnd
earthbound
vents y
his
laws of motion
ed most hinkers-although
otNewton imself-to
embracehepositionhat
he
universe
nd
all
its
parts
were
y
nature
clocklikend nprincipleompletelyredictable.henomenahat
ad
the ppearancef ndeterminacyereviewed s beingmerely oorly
understood;n time, hey lsowere xpectedo be found egular
nd
predictable.hus, he eigning odel
f
cience
fter
ewton
ffirmed
that ll
naturewas governed y
deterministicaws
or,
to
put it
in
Popper'smetaphor,all clouds re clocks-even he most loudy
f
clouds."'
In
the 920'S, thedevelopment
f
quantum heoryhallengedhis
clocklike odel fnature ndsupportedheview hatndeterminacy
andchancewere undamentaloall natural rocesses. ith his iscov-
ery, opper'smetaphor as inverted;
ow
thedominant iew
held
that
to ome egree
ll
clocks
re
clouds;
r n other
ords,
hat
nly
clouds xist, hough louds
f
very
ifferent
egrees
f
cloudiness."'
Many cientistsnd philosophersreeted
his
hange
f
model
with
relief,incet seemed ofree hem
rom he
nightmare
f
determinism
that
enied he fficacy
f
human
hoices nd
goals.
ButPopper oeson toarguehis centraloint,hat indeterminism
is not
nough"
o
account or he pparentutonomy
f
human
deas
in
thephysical orld.
If
determinism
s
true,
hen hewhole
world
is
a
perfectlyunning
lawless
lock,ncluding
ll
clouds,
ll
organisms,
all animals,llmen. f,onthe ther and, ierce's rHeisenberg'sr
some ther orm f
ndeterminism
s
true,
hen heer hance
lays
major
ole
n
our
physical
orld. ut s chance
eallymore atisfactory
than
determinism
"3
Popper nswers
n
thenegative. lthoughhysicistsndphilosophers
have ried o buildmodels
fhuman hoice ased
pon heunpredict-
ability
f
quantumumps,4 e rejects
hese
s being
oo
circumscribed.
1
Karl R. Popper, Of
Clouds and Clocks:
An
Approach
o the
Problem f Ration-
ality
nd the Freedomof Man,"
in
Popper,
ObjectiveKnowledge:
An
Evolutionary
Approach
Oxford:
Clarendon ress
972), 2io; emphasis
n
original.
2
ibid., I3; emphasis
n original.
3
Ibid.,
26; emphasis
n
original.
4ArthurH. Compton,
he Freedomof
Man
(New
Haven:
Yale University ress
I935) .
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll bj JSTOR T d C di i
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 4/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS, AND POLITICS
491
He acknowledges
hat
the
quantum-jump
odel
may
be a
model
for . .
snap
decisions....
But
re
snap
decisions
eally
o
very
nter-
esting? re heyharacteristic
fhuman
ehavior-of ational
uman
behavior?" e concludes:I donot hink o.... Whatweneedfor
understanding
ational uman
ehavior-and
ndeed nimal
ehavior
-is
something
ntermediate
n
character,
etween
erfect
hance
nd
perfect
eterminism-somethingntermediateetween
erfect
louds
and
perfectlocks.... For
obviously hatwewant
s
to understand
how such
non-physical
hings
s
purposes,
eliberations,lans,
eci-
sions,heories,
ntentions,ndvalues, an
play
part
n
bringingbout
physical
hanges
n
the
physical
orld"5
Popper'smethod farrivingt a solutiono thisproblemeems,
like
the
problem
tself,
o be relevant
o
politics
nd
political
cience.
His
conjectures that he
roblem
s
essentially
neof
control;.e.,
he
controlf
behavior
ndother
spects
f
thephysical orld
y
human
ideas
or
mental
bstractions.
hus,he
states hat the olutionmust
explain
reedom;nd it
must
lso explainhow
freedom
s
not ust
chance ut,
ather,
he
result
f
a subtle
nterplay
etween
omething
almostandomrhaphazard,nd omethingike restrictiverselec-
tive ontrol-such
s an aimor
standard-though
ertainlyot
cast-
iron
ontrol."
ccordingly,e
restrictshe
cope
f cceptable
olutions
to
those
hat
conform
o the dea
of
combining
reedomnd
control,
andalso othe
deaof
plasticontrol,'s
I shall
all t n
contradistinc-
tion o
a
'cast-iron'ontrol."'
Popper eaches
n
evolutionary
olution
o this
problem-one hat
stresses
rial
nderror
limination,
r variation
nd
selectiveetention.7
Only uch theoryanaccommodatelasticontrol,ndthushuman
freedom.
nce this s
seen,
he
problem fthe
relationshipetween
ideas
nd
behaviorecomes
olvable: For
the ontrolf
ourselvesnd
of
our
actions
y
our
theoriesnd
purposess
plasticontrol.
We are
not
orcedosubmit
urselvesothe
ontrolf
our heories,or
we can
discuss hem
ritically,
nd we
can
reject hem
reelyf
we
think hat
they
all
hort f our
regulativetandards.
ot
onlydo our
theories
controls,butwe cancontrolurtheoriesandeven ur tandards):
there
s
a
kind
f
feedbackere."8
Popper oncludes:
We have
seenthat
t is
unsatisfactoryo
look
upon
he
world s
a
closed hysical
ystem-whetherstrictly
eter-
5Popper
(fn.
), 228,
229;
emphasis
n
original.
6
ibid.,
3I-32;
emphasisn
original.
7
See
Donald T.
Campbell,"Variation
nd
Selective
Retention
n
Socio-cultural
Evolution,"
eneral
ystems
earbook,
IV (i969).
8
Popper
fn.
),
240-4I;
emphasisnoriginal.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 5/35
492
WORLD POLITICS
ministic
ystem
r
a systemnwhichwhatevers
not trictlyetermined
is simply ueto chance; n such view f the
world uman reative-
ness nd human reedoman onlybe
illusions.... I havetherefore
offereddifferentiew ftheworld-one nwhich he hysical orld
is an open ystem.his s compatible ith he
viewof theevolution
of
ife s a process f trial-and-error
limination;nd it allowsus to
understandationally,hough arfrom ully,
he emergencef bio-
logicalnoveltynd the growth f humanknowledge nd human
freedom."9
Thus Popper ells s that hemodels f
explanationppropriateo
thephysicalciences ill not nable s to come o gripswithhuman
and cultural henomena,nd thatwhilewe can increase ur under-
standing
f
hem, e cannot xplain hem ullyecause f heir reative
andemergentroperties.
THE ONTOLOGICAL PROPERTIES
OF
POLITICS
Popper's ssay resentss with hreeways
f
conceptualizing
ocial
reality-as clock, s a cloud,
ndas a
system
f
plastic
ontrols.
olit-
icalreality, hich t sthe ask fpoliticalcienceo
explain,
s
clearly
best apturedy he hirdonceptualization.t consistsf deas-human
decisions, oals,purposes-in
onstantnd intensenteraction
ith
other
deas,
uman
ehavior,
nd
the
physical
orld.At the enter f
this
omplexystem
re
choices nd decisions-decisions
o
command,
obey, ote,
makedemands.
he
political
niverse as
organization;
elites
makedecisions
o
command
r
notto
command,
hat o
com-
mand,
ow
o
mplement
ommands.itizens
nd
subjects
akedeci-
sions ocomply,owto complyrnot ocomply;o makedemands,
how to
makedemands,
r not to makedemands. hat is
the
heart
of
politics,he ubject
matter
ur
discipline
s committedo
exploring
andunderstanding.
The relations
mong
hese
ventsre
not
imply eactive,
s
are the
encounters
f
physicalbjects; hey
renot
readily
menable
o
cause-
and-effect
clocklike"
odels
r
metaphors.
asically,
his s because
the
ehavioral
epertories
f
elites
nd
citizens
renotfixed
epertories.
Theactorsnpoliticsavememories;heyearn romxperience.hey
have
goals, spirations,
alculative
trategies.emory,earning,oal
seeking,
nd
problemolving
ntervene
etween
cause"
nd
"effect,"
between
ndependent
nd
dependent
ariable.
Political ecisions
re
notmade nd
mplemented
n
a
vacuum; hey
are
subject
o
a
complex rray
f
constraints
nd
opportunities.
hese
9lbid.,
54-55.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 6/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS,
AND POLITICS
493
constraints-the
ecessities
f
politics-range
rom
he
relatively
ard
variety
epresentedyenvironmental
r
ecological
imits
o
the
quite
soft
arietyllustrated
y
passing
ashionsnd fads.Constraints
efine
the operationalilieu" fpoliticalctors'0nd xhibitaryingegrees
of
manipulability.
ome, ike
geographyr the evel
f
technology,
re
difficultoalter
ven
n
the ongrun;
n
the
hort
un,
hey
re
prac-
tically
onmanipulable.thers,ike ultural
alues
nd
public
pinion,
arerelatively
asy o
manipulaten
some
ircumstances,ore ntrac-
table
n
others.
ut
manipulation
s
very arely
mpossible
n
principle.
Even
relatively
ardenvironmentalonstraints-suchs the
relation
between
materialesource
eeds nd
population-can
ometimese
altereds a consequencef man'screative,daptiveapacities.he
agricultural
evolutionome
o,ooo
earsgo
multiplied
ymany
imes
thenumberf
people
apable fbeing
ustained
n a
given
pace,
nd
the
ndustrial
evolutionfthe ast
wo
enturies
ultiplied
t
bymany
times
gain.
These
ontologicalropertiesf
political
ffairs
re
plain
for ll
to
see;they renot
matters
n which
easonable
ersons
an
differ.ocial
scientistsho-for
whatever
hilosophicalrmethodologicaleasons-deny hem nd viewhuman ehaviors
simplyeactive
nd
conse-
quently
usceptibleo
the ame
xplanatory
ogic s
"clocklike"atural
phenomenare
rying
ofashion
science ased
n
empiricallyalsified
presuppositions.hat
becomes lear
when heir
xplanatory
chemes
are
thought
f n
terms
f
their
wn
behaviors
scientists.
nsofar
s
they
cknowledge he
importance
f
scientific
emory,
cientific
creativity,alculative
trategies,
oalseeking,
nd problem
olvingn
their wnwork,heymustnsome egreecknowledgeheseualities
in
the
human
nd socialmaterial
hey
nvestigatend seek o
explain.
The
implication
f
these
omplexities
fhuman
nd social
eality
s
that
he
explanatory
trategy
f
thehard
ciences
as
only
limited
application
o
the ocial
ciences.
odels, rocedures,nd
methodolo-
gies reated
o
explore
world n
which
locklike
nd
cloudlikehar-
acteristics
redominateill
capturenly part
f
the much
richer
world
of
social nd
political
nteraction.
hus,
a
simple earch or
regularitiesnd lawful elationshipsmong ariables-a trategyhat
has ed
to
tremendous
uccesses
n
the
physical
ciences-will ot
ex-
plain
ocial
utcomes,
ut
only
ome
f
the
onditions
ffectinghose
outcomes.
Because he
roperties
f
political
eality
ifferrom
hose f
physical
10
Harold
Sprout
nd
Margaret
prout,
he
Ecological
erspectiven
Human
Affairs
(Princeton: rinceton
niversity
ress
965).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 7/35
494
WORLD
POLITICS
reality,heproperties
f
political egularities
lsodifferrom hose f
physical egularities.
he regularitiese discover
re soft.
hey
are
soft ecause
hey
re he utcomes
f
processes
hat
xhibit
lastic
ather
than ast-ironontrol.hey re mbeddednhistorynd involve e-
currentpassings-through"
f large
numbersf human
memories,
learning rocesses,
uman
oal-seekingmpulses,
nd choices
mong
alternatives.he regularities
e discoverppear
ohave short
alf-
life.
Theydecay uickly
ecause f
thememory,reativeearching,
and earninghat nderliehem.ndeed, ocial
ciencetselfmay
on-
tributeo thisdecay,
ince earningncreasingly
ncludes ot only
learning
rom
xperience,ut
from
cientificesearch
tself.
The softnessndhistoricaloundednessfpoliticalheoriesan be
illustratedy a few xamples.
olitical cientistsre
ustifiablyroud
of
their heory
f voting ehavior.
t is the
losest
hing
o
a
scientific
theoryhatwe
have. t
has
generated
set fwhat
ppear
o
be "cover-
ing aws"-demographic
nd attitudinal
orrelates
f
the
voting
eci-
sion, nductively
rrived t.
The deductive
ownsianmodel
of
the
consequences
or
partyystems
f
different
istributionsf voter tti-
tudes ooks ike nevenmore asic aw
of
politics.
ut
even
casual
review fthefindings
fvoting esearchnthe ast hirtyears hows
how
unstablehese
egularitiesre,
nd
how
far hort
f
hard cience
our
effortso stabilizehemmust nevitably
all.Modern esearchn
voting
ehavior
ade
tsgreatestrogress
n studiesf Americanlec-
tions
n
the
950's
and early
960's,
a
period
f
rapid
conomic
rowth
and low-intensityolitics.
tudentsf American oting ehaviorn
that
eriod
maintainedhey ould xplain
nd
predict
mericanoting
behaviorn thebasis f"partydentification"nd "candidatemage";
issues eemed oplay nly secondaryole."The
result f his fforto
produce hard ausal
xplanationasa psychological
heoryfvoting
behavior ased
n
party
dentificationnd candidate
mage.But
this
theory
as
soon o be
challenged y
studies
one
n
the
early970's
which
nclude
atafrom he
930's
and ate 96o's.These
arlier nd
later
eriods
how
American oters
s
making
heir
hoices
n
the
basis fcandidates'ssue
ositionso
a far
reater
xtenthan
was true
ofthe
950's
andearly
960's.
Recent riterspeak fthe decomposi-
tion"
f
the
partyystem,
f
the ndividuationf
voting ehavior,nd
of
the
ideologization"
f
American
olitics.'2
nd one
of the eading
11
Angus Campbell nd others,
he
Voter
Decides
(Evanston,
ll.: Row
Peterson
I954);
Campbell ndothers,
he American
Voter
New
York:
Wiley
960).
12
NormanNie,
SidneyVerba, nd
John
R.
Petrocik,
he
Changing
American
Voter
(Cambridge:Harvard
University
ress
976), 345ff;
Walter
Dean
Burnham,
ritical
Elections nd the
Mainspringsf
American
olitics New
York:
Norton 97o).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 8/35
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 9/35
496 WORLD
POLITICS
variables
ad
ittle
ndependent
mpact
n
the
policy
ariables.
hen
controlled
or evel
f
economic
evelopment,
he ffectf
these
olit-
ical differences
as washed
way.
This
finding
ed
to
theremarkable
conclusionhat conomic nd other nvironmentalariablesxplain
public
olicy
much etterhan
olitical ariables.'6
There re
two
spects
f
this esearch
n
public
olicy
hat
renote-
worthy
or
ur
purposes.he
first
s
the
xtraordinaryonstriction
f
the
imendspace
erspectivesnthis
ffortotest
global
roposition
concerning
he
relationship
etween
conomics,olitics,
nd
public
policy. he
fact
hat hese
were
heAmerican
tatesnthe
1950's-a
period f
political
tability-rather
han n
the
1930's,did not
reg-
ister s limitinghekinds f inferenceshat ouldbe drawn. olit-
ical
cientists
tudying
hese roblems
rought
o
historical
erspective
to
bear
n
their esearch-nomemoriesf
war,
evolution,
nd
depres-
sion, nd
oftheir ell-known
elationships
o
politics
nd
public
olicy.
Second,
here
as
no
recognition
f the
fact hat
nvironmental
ari-
ables annot
irectlyroduce
ublic
olicy, hat
olitical
hoicemust
in
the
nature
f
the ase ntervene
etween
hem,
nd
that
istorically
thisnterventionas beenveryargendeed.
Socialmobilization
heory
as
sought
o
explain
nd
predictrends
toward
politicization,
emocratization,nd
de-ideologizationrom
trends
oward
rbanization,
ndustrialization,
ommunication,ndedu-
cation-only odiscover
hat
when
hese
elationships
re
examined
historically,
uman
ntractability
nd
inventiveness,
s
well as
sheer
chance,
omplicateshese
atterns
normously.'7
he
prophetf
the
endof
deology'8as
become
heprophet
f
the
postindustrial
ociety'
and, urrently,heprophetfsocial isjunctionsndculturalxhaus-
tion."0
ocial
cientists
re
finding
hat
hey
o
a
better
ob
of
xplaining
when
hey
ollowhe
ourse
fhistory,
sing
ophisticated
ethodolo-
gies
to
isolate
ecessary
equences
nd
constraints,
utalways
ware
of
the
roleof
chance
ndhuman
nventivenessn
producingheout-
comes
hey
reseeking
o
explain.
In
their
ascination
ith
owerful
egularitiesnd
uniformities
hat
have
he
propertiesf
causal
necessityr
high
probability,
ocial
cien-
16
See
Thomas
R.
Dye,
Understanding
ublic
Policy
Englewood
Cliffs,
.J.:
Prentice-
Hall
I972),
243-48,
or
a review
of this
iterature
nd a
fuller
ormulationf
these
findings
nd
inferences.
17For
a review
of
this
iterature,
ee
GabrielA.
Almond, cottC.
Flanagan,
nd
RobertJ.
Mundt,
ds.,
Crisis,
Choice
nd
Change Boston:
Little
Brown
973),
8ff.
18
Daniel
Bell, The
End
of
deology New
York:
Free
Press
96o).
'9
Daniel
Bell,The
Coming
f
Post-Industrial
ocietyNew
York:
Free
Press
973).
20
Daniel
Bell,
The
Cultural
Contradictionsf
Capitalism
New
York:
Basic
Books
I976).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 10/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS,
AND
POLITICS
497
tists
ave verlookedhe
fact
hat
much fsocial nd
politicalhange
hastobe
explained eithery
trongegularities
or
by
weak
regulari-
ties,
ut
by accidental
onjunctions-byvents
hat
had a
low
proba-
bilityfoccurring.he concatenationfparticulareaderswithpar-
ticular
istoricalontextss a matter f chance-offortune-rather
than
ecessity.cholarsan
explain hyRussia
was
ripe
or evolution
in
9I7; and they an explain
ome spects
f
Lenin's ersonality
nd
operationalode; butthey
annot xplainwhy he
two conjoined o
produce
heBolshevik
evolution,nly hat heyonjoined ychance.
The
problems similar o that
f thebiologisteeking o explain he
emergencef a
new species. e can describen
ecological
iche
n
termsf onstraintsndopportunities;ut or heniche obe occupied,
the hance ccurrencef an
appropriate utationr
setof mutations
is
required.
Although
n
somerespects
he problems similar o thatof
the
biologist,tdiffers
n
fundamental
ays.
The
interplay
etween
he
constraintsf
the cological
iche
nd
the
andomness
f
he
rocess
f
mutation,o besure,s a matter
f
trial
nd error.
he search rocess
is a random ne,and largely enetic.n human ffairs,he search
process
n
addition
as
mportant
onscious,lanfulspects.t nvolves
not only
hechance
oncatenation
f a
revolutionaryolitical iche
with
Lenin, utwith scheming,ontriving,
illing,mprovising
Lenin,
onstantlyrobing,esting,nd earning
bout
he
constraints
and
opportunitiesithin he
niche
he
is
strivingooccupy. nce he
does
occupyt,
he transforms
heniche
nd
the
population
ccupying
it n
ways
hatwill
onstrainbut gain
not
determine)uturedaptive
efforts.f we areto understandolitical eality, e havetocome o
grips ot nlywith ts
determinatespects ut,most
articularly,ith
its
reative,daptive,
roblem-solvingspects.
or
t
s this
ast harac-
teristichich
s
the
ssentially
uman
roperty,
ndwhichs
the
nique
mechanism
nd
explanatoryhallenge
f
the
ocial ciences.
THE CLOCK
MODEL OF
POLITICAL SCIENCE
The now
dominant,
behavioral"
tradition
n
political
cience
endstorestn threepistemologicalndmethodologicalssumptionshich
it
has
taken
rom hehard ciences:
I)
that he
purpose
f
science
s
the
discovery
f
regularities
n,
and
ultimately
aws
of,
social
and
political
rocesses;2)
that
cientific
xplanation
eans
he
deductive
subsumption
f
individual
vents
nder
covering
aws";
and
(3)
that he
nly cientifically
elevant
elationships
etween
vents
n
the
world re thosewhich
correspond
o
a
physicalisticonceptionf
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 11/35
498 WORLD
POLITICS
causal onnection.hese ssumptions
rehighlynterrelated,nd each
carriesmportantubstantivemplications
or he tudy
f
politics.
(i) The emphasisn generalizations
n politicalcience
must
irst
be understoodn historicalontext.When David Easton rguedn
I953 that knowledgeecomes ritical
nd reliablewhen t increases
in generalitynd internallyonsistent
rganization,hen, n short,
it s cast n the orm fsystematic
eneralizedtatementspplicableo
large
umbers
f
particularases,"'"
e
was
peakinggainst
tradition
of deographic,escriptive,oncumulative,
nd nstitutionalase tudies
that ad dominated uch fthe
disciplinewith fewnotable xcep-
tions) or everal ecades. similar
oncernnimatedhebehavioral
polemicsf Truman ndothersn theearly
95O's.22
The long-term
result f
this raiseworthy
ttempto shift mphasis
rom
escription
to
explanation,owever,asbeen
he nshrining
f
thenotion fgen-
eralization
s the sine qua
non of
the
scientific
spirations
f
the
profession.his is perhapsmostreadily pparentn the recently
burgeoningscope nd methods"iterature.
or
example, carrow,
n
his ComparativeoliticalAnalysis,
nnounceshat Generalizations
are the hallmarkf all scientificndeavor,"23hileConway nd
Feigert,
n
Political nalysis:
n
Introduction,eclare
hat
the unc-
tionof science s
generallyerceived
s
being he
establishmentf
general
aws
or
theories
hich
xplain
he
behavior ithwhich
he
particulariscipline
s concerned."24ven
a
sophisticatedtudy,
uch
as
Przeworski's
nd Teune's
Logic of Comparative
ocial
nquiry,
states
omewhat
ogmatically
hat:
The
pivotal ssumption
f
this
analysiss
that
ocial cienceesearch,ncludingomparativenquiry,
should nd can leadto general tatementsbout ocialphenomena.
This
assumptionmplies
hat
human
nd
social
behavior an be
ex-
plained
n
terms
f
general
aws stablished
y
observation.ntroduced
here
s
an
expression
f
preference,
his
ssumption
ill notbe
logi-
cally ustified."25
The
substantive
mpact
f this
mphasis
n
generalizations
s to
focus
he ttention
f
research
n
regularities,niformities,
nd
stable
21
Easton,
The Political
ystem
New
York:
Knopf
953), 55.
22
David B. Truman,
"The
Impact
on
PoliticalScience of the Revolution n the
Behavioral ciences," eprinted
n Heinz
Eulau, ed.,
Behavioralismn
Political cience
(New York:
Atherton
969).
23
Howard A. Scarrow, omparative
oliticalAnalysis: n IntroductionNew York:
Harper & Row
i969),
33.
24
MargaretConway and
Frank B.
Feigert,Political
Analysis:An Introduction
(Boston:Allyn nd
Bacon
972),
17.
25Adam
Przeworski nd
HenryTeune, The Logic
of
Comparativeocial Inquiry
(New
York:
Wiley 970),
4.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 12/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS, AND POLITICS
499
patternsf
association
npolitical
rocesses
t theexpense
f
unique
or
low-probabilityvents r
political utcomes.
s
Frohock
xpresses
it
n
The Nature f
Political
nquiry,Sciences
concerned
ith
stab-
lishing ausal elationsndgeneralaws.To dothis he ocial cientist
must
oncentrate
n
systematic
atterns
fhuman onduct.
nly
s
an
events
a
recurring
nstance
f
general
lass an t
be
treated
cientifi-
cally.""
We arenot
rguing
ere
or
he
view hat
egularities
o not
occur
in
political
rocessesrthat
alid
generalizationsannot
e made.
As
we
noted
bove, olitical
egularities-albeit
oft-clearly
xist nd
are
crucial o
politicalnquiry.
ather,ur
criticisms aimed
t
positions
that eeregularitiesndgeneralizationss theonly roper bjectsf
scientific
olitical
nquiry. his
seems o us
an
unnecessaryelimita-
tion f
the cope
f
the
discipline'subjectmatter.
f
political
eality
is
best iewed s a
conjunctionf
hoice nd
constraint,nd as
a
source
of
both
egularity
nd nnovation,hen
olitical
cience
hould ot
be
limitedoa
consideration
fonly art fthis
eality.
pure ocus
n
generalizations
s
"the
hallmarkf
ll scientific
ndeavor"
ould
eem
tocondemnt to ust uch limitation.
(2) The
concern ith
eneralizationsnd
regularities-and
he
on-
comitant
illingnesso imit
he
cope
f
political
cience
oonly hose
aspects f
political
ealityhat re
generalizable-is
losely
ssociated
with
particular
onception
f
explanation
n
political
nquiry.
his
positions
also
reflected
n
the
scope
ndmethods"
iterature.
lan
Isaak,
n
his
Scope
nd
Method
f
Political
cience,
eclares
hat
olit-
ical
scientistsust ccepthe scientificact f ife" hat everyoundexplanation
nd
prediction
ontains
t
east ne
generalization;ithout
generalizationshereould
be
no
explanations
r
predictions."27imi-
larly,
onway
nd
Feigert
rgue
hat
Explanationsn
scienceequire
...
laws
or
theories
hich
rewell
stablished....
xplanationccurs
when
he
acts o
be
explained
an
be
deduced
s
a
logical
onsequence
of
the
aws
or
theorynd
..
other nown
acts."28
Themodel
f
explanation
lluded o
here sthe
o-called
covering
law"ordeductive-nomologicalD-N) model evelopednthephiloso-
phy
f
cience yR. B.
Braithwaite,29
arl
Hempel,30
ndothers. he
26
Fred
M.
Frohock,
The
Nature
of
Political
nquiry
(Homewood,
Ill.:
Dorsey
I967),
14I.
27
Isaak, The
Scope
and Method
of
Political
Science
(Homewood, Ill.:
Dorsey
i969), 8o.
28
Conway
nd
Feigert
fn.
4), 27.
29
Braithwaite,
cientific
xplanation
Cambridge:
ambridge
niversityress
953).
30
Hempel,
Aspects
f
Scientific
xplanation
New
York:
Free
Press
965);
see also
ErnestNagel,TheStructurefScience New York:Harcourt, race ndWorld
96i).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 13/35
500
WORLD POLITICS
basic deaunderlyinghis
model s that
omethings explained
hen
it has been
hown o be
a memberf a more eneral lass f
things.
"To explainomethings
toexhibitt
s a special ase fwhat s
known
ingeneral.""3his s achieved,ccordingo themodel,when hepar-
ticular ase s deduced
rom more
eneralaw (or setof aws)
that
"covers"
tand all other
elevantlyimilar
ases. hat s why enerali-
zations lay
uch fundamentalole
n deductive
xplanations.
The explanatory
ower
fthe
D-N
model erives
rom he
fact hat
deduction
rom overingaws ogically
ecessitates
hat
which
s de-
duced.
he deduction
explains"y elling s that,
n
the
asis
fwhat
we already now the
generalization),
he ase
n
question
as to be
expected:thadto occur heway t did.32hisnotionf"itwasto be
expected"
tands t the
enter fthedeductiveonception
f
explana-
tion, nd
accounts or
heclose ssociationetween
xplanation
nd
prediction
n themodel.33
oradherents
f
he
D-N
model,
n
explana-
tion
that
would not be
equally apableof supporting
prediction
wouldnot
ualifys a true
xplanation.34t s not
urprising,herefore,
that losed
deterministic
ystems-"clockodels"
n Popper's
ermi-
nology-aremost menableoD-N explanation.s Hempelputs t:
"The best xamplesf
explanationsonforming
o the
D-N
model re
based nphysicalheories
f
deterministic
haracter.... [T]he
laws
specified
y
uch theory
or
he
hanges
fstate
redeterministic
n
the ense
hat, iven
he
tate
f
hat
ystem
t
any
ne
ime,
hey
eter-
mine ts
tate
t
any
ther,
arlier
r
later,
ime."35
Itisclear
hat he
D-N
model
oses tsusefulness
o
the
degree
hat
there reexceptions
o the
aw or aws
warranting
he
xplanation
n
question.fwecannotegitimatelyaintainhat allA's areB's"and
must
ettle
or
law
assertingnly
hat
some
A's
are
B's,"
then
he
deductive
ink
s dissolved
nd our
xplanation
fthe ccurrencef B
continueso
be
problematic.
his
state
f
affairs,
owever,
s
ust
what
is
mplied
y
henotion
f
plastic
ontrol.
lasticity
eans
hat
we
can
31
AbrahamKaplan,
The
Conduct
f
Inquiry San
Francisco:
Chandler
964),
339.
32Ibid
33
aul Diesing, atterns
f
Discoveryn the Social Sciences Chicago: Aldine
Ather-
ton
97I),
164.
See Hempel
(fn. 30), 367,
wherethis
position
s maintained
while its
obverse-
that validprediction
ust lso
qualify
s an
explanation-is
ut
aside. Thismodifica-
tion of the
so-called
symmetry
hesis f
explanation
nd
prediction"
as
not
always
been appreciated y political
cientists.
ee, e.g.,
Oran
Young,
"The Perils f
Odysseus:
On Constructing
heories n International
elations,"
n
Raymond
anter ndRichard
Ullman, eds., Theory
and
Policy
in International
elations
Princeton:
Princeton
University
ress
972),
183.
35
Hempel (fn. 30),
351;
see
also
Nagel (fn.
30), 323.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 14/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS, AND POLITICS 501
expect,
n
principle,
hat
here
will
be exceptions
o
any generalizations
we might
orm bout
the phenomena hat re
of
interest
o
us.
Thus,
the moreour subjectmatter xhibits lastic ontrol, he ess t will be
amenable o simpleD-N explanations.
(3)
The notionof causality s
closely
ssociatedwith
the idea
of
covering-lawxplanation y both
political cientistsnd philosophers
of science.R. B. Braithwaite,or
xample, escribes ausality trictly
n
terms
f
covering aws: "[T]he statementhatsome particular vent
is
the
effectf
a
setof circumstancesnvolves he assertion
f a
general
law;
to
ask
for
hecause
of
an
event
s
always
o ask for
general
aw
which pplies otheparticular vent."36
This formulations
echoedby political cientists.
hus,
Robert
Dahl
argues hat If we wishto explain n
event, ,
in a
strictlyausal man-
ner,we consider as an effectnd
bring t under ome generalization
of the form: Every ventC is
accompanied aterby an eventE.'
. . .
The
C
is called the cause,E the
effect."37imilarly,saak maintains
that, If saying hat A causesB' is tantamount
o
B
alwaysfollowsA,'
then hey re bothreducible o If A, thenB.' In otherwords,we can
expresswhat is traditionally
nown
as
a
causal relationship ithout
using the term
cause."38
All of
these
characterizationsest
on
the
notionof
causality
s
an
explanatoryoncept.But how is this
explanatory
tatus
cquired? As
can be seen
from
ven
a
cursory xposure
o
the iterature
n
causation
and conditions,39
he
concepts cause"
and
"effect"re
broad and
am-
biguous.
One element
f their
meaning
seems
to stand
out
in
any
account,however: the principleof "same cause,same effect."40s
Hempel puts it,
"as
is
suggested y
the
principle
same
cause,
same
effect,'he assertion
hat
a given set
of]
circumstances
ointly
aused
a
given
event
mplies
that whenever nd
wherever
ircumstances
f
36
Braithwaitefn. 9), 2;
see also
Hempel fn.
30), 348-49.
37Dahl,
"Cause and Effect
n
the
Study
of
Politics,"
n
Daniel
Lerner, d.,
Cause
and
Eflect
New York: Free
Press
965),
87.
38
Isaak (fn. 7), 95.
39
ee, e.g., ErnestSosa, Causation nd ConditionalsOxford: OxfordUniversityPress
975);
MylesBrand, d.,The Nature
f
CausationUrbana:Universityf llinois
Press
i976).
40
There aremany
disputes
oncerning
he
philosophical
tatus f
causality
hat
go
well
beyondthis
consensual lement f its
meaning-for
example,
he
problemof
whether
he
causal
connection
epresents
constant
onjunction,
ogical
necessity,
r
"natural" ecessity;nd the
problem
f the
temporalrderingnd
contiguityf causes
and
effects.or a discussion
f these n
terms
elevant
o
political
cience
esearch,
ee
Georg
Henrik
von
Wright, xplanation
nd
Understanding
Ithaca,
N.Y.:
Cornell
University
ress
971).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 15/35
502
WORLD POLITICS
thekind n questionccur,
n
event
f
thekind
o
be
explained
akes
place."'" r,
n Abraham
aplan's lightly
ore
autious ormulation:
"Causalconnection
s
usually nalyzed
n terms f
some
relation
f
implication:he rammarfthe if-then'onjunctions at east start-
ingpoint.
f
the ause ccurs,hen
ts
ffects
ccur."42t
is
this
lement
of
"same ause, ame ffect"
hat
onfersxplanatoryower
n
causal
relations
n
theworld.Without
t,
causality"ecomesimplynother
problematicnd essentiallynexplainedelationshipetween wo or
more hings,vents,r processes.
This
philosophical
haracterization
fthe
elationship
etweenause
andeffects closely elatedoPopper's otion
f
cast-ironontrol.he
cause roduceshe ffect,ndthe xistencefthe ause sthe xplana-
tion f he ffect. world fpure ause ndeffect,
s
narrowlyefined
by his dentification
f
causality
ith
overing-lawxplanation,
ould
be
a
worldwithout
xceptions,
world hat ould
not
be
other han
what t s. Such world,we feel,
s
completely
lien
o
theworld
f
politics,n which hepotentialor urprisend nnovations inherent
in
many,
f
notmost, ituations.
In spite fthe nflexibilityndaridityfthe xplanatoryonceptf
causality,owever, any olitical
cientists
ave
attempted
o
couch
their
nalysesfpolitical henomena
n terms fthe
notions
f
cause
andeffect.he results
often
n
odd
mixture
f
formalized
efinitions
andunrelatedmpirical
ubstance.s
an
example
f
uch
mixture,
e
mightake brief
ook
tonebranch
f
politicalnalysis
hat as
made
considerable
se
of ausal ormulations-theiterature
n
the
oncept
f
power. ere
he
elationship
f
ause
nd ffect
s
explicitly
nvoked
s a
metaphoror necessary,ependentonnectionetweenvents.orex-
ample,Herbert
imon
has
stated hat
for
he ssertion
C
has
power
over
,'
we
can
ubstitute
he ssertion
C's behavior
auses 's
behavior.'
If
we
can
define
he
ausal
elation,
e can
define
nfluence,ower
r
authority,
nd
vice
ersa.""
Similarly,
ndrew
McFarland
ssertshat
"definitions
f
power
r influenceased
on
such
conceptss force,
incentivesr
utilities,
ndminimum
inning
oalitions
re
..
reducible
to causalterms."44orerecently,ackNagelhas defined ower s
follows:A
power elation,
ctual r
potential,
s an
actual
rpotential
causal elation
etween
he
preferences
f
an
actor
egardingn out-
41
Hempel
(fn.
30),
348-49.
42
Kaplan,
Noncausal
xplanation,"
n Lerner
fn.
37),
146.
43
imon,
Models
f
Man
(New
York:
Wiley
957),
5.
44McFarland,
ower
and
Leadership
n
Pluralist
ystems
Stanford:
tanford
ni-
versity
ress
i969),
29.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 16/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS,
AND POLITICS
503
come
nd
the
utcome
tself."45
nd
Robert
ahl,
n the
atestdition
of
his
Modern
olitical
Analysis,
eems o
maintain
although
with
some aveats)
is
ong-standing
iew
hat
ausations fundamental
o
understandingower nd influenceelations:whenwe single ut
influencerom
ll
other spects
f
human
nteraction
n
order
o
give
it
special ttention,
hat
nterestss
andwhatwe focus ttentionn
is
that
neormore f
thepersons
n this
nteractionet
what
heywant,
orat
east et loserowhat hey ant,
y ausing ther
eople
oact
n
some articularay.
We want o call
attentiono a causal
elationship
between hat
A
wants nd whatB
does."46
How is theword cause"
eing
sed
n
these
efinitions?
learly
t
isnotbeing sed s anexplanatoryoncept,nthe ense escribedy
philosophersfscience.
or an
explanation
o be
truly
ausal
n
that
sense,
s
we have
een, he
relationship
n
question
ouldhaveto be
(i) cast-iron,
2) generalizable,nd
(3)
amenable
o
covering-law
explanation.one
of these roperties
ould
eem
o
apply
o
power
relationships.here s no "necessity"
nherent
n
the
outcome f
an
attempto assert ower ver nother
erson,
s there s
in a
causal
connectionetweenwo physicalbjects. he target f thepower
attempt ay, or ny
numberf
reasons,
ct
differently
han he
power
wielder ouldhavehim ct.This s
because power
elationshipoes
not
nvolveast-iron
ontrol;nstead,t s
an
nteraction
f
wo
hoosing
and
mutuallyonstraining
ndividuals,ach
with
his own
resources,
goals, urposes,
nterests,nd
strategies.he intentionsndresources
of
thefirstertainly
onstrainhechoices nd actions
f thesecond,
but
hey o notdeterminehose
hoices nd actions
n
any
ort f
cast-
iron ense.
This
"looseness
f
fit"
etweenhebehaviornd ntentionsf
actors
involvedn an
attempto exercise
owermeans hat heir elationship
is
not
eadily
eneralizable;either
s t
particularlymenableostrict
covering-lawxplanation.
s Hart
nd
Honore
ave
ut
t:
"The
state-
ment
hat ne person id somethingecause
.
. another
hreatened
him,
arries
o
mplication
r
covertssertionhat f
the
ircumstances
were
epeated,
he
ame
ction
ould
ollow;
or oes
uch
statement
requireor tsdefense,sordinaryausal tatementso,a generaliza-
tion.
. "
Theseconsiderationsead us to
conclude hat
he
power
45Nagel,
The
Descriptive nalysis
f
Power
(New
Haven: Yale
Universityress
1975), 29.
46Dahl,
Modern
PoliticalAnalysis 3rd
ed.; Englewood
Cliffs,
.J.:
Prentice-Hall
1976),
30;
emphasis
n
original.
47H.
L. A. Hart and
A.
M.
Honore,
Causation n
the Law
(Oxford:
Clarendon
Press
959), 52.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 17/35
504
WORLD
POLITICS
relationships notcausal,
t least
not n
the
explanatory
ense
f
the
term.48
This conclusion ould
eem,
n one
sense,
o be shared
y
Dahl
and
many fthe ther oliticalcientistshousecausal anguagentheir
definition
f
power.
f we examine
heir
mpiricalnalyses
f
power
relations
n
real-worldolitical
ituationsather
han heir
efinitions,
we
find arefulnd
precise
xaminations
f
the
omplex
nteractions
that
ontribute
o
outcomes,
ithouteliance
n
simplistic
otions
f
"same ause, ame
ffect."
n such
ubstantive
nalyses-as
pposed
o
definition
aking-plasticity
s
recognized
nd
indeterminatenesss
often
andledwith
ophistication
nd
insight.
Whatwe seem oobserven this articularrea fpoliticalesearch,
then,s a rhetoricalr
metaphorical-rather
han
xplanatory-usage
of
causal
anguage
n
formalizations
nd
definitions.
his
accounts
or
the
lack
of
a
subsequent
ommitmento actual
ausal
analysis
n
substantive
esearch.
he somewhat
ncongruous
ap
can
perhaps est
be
explaineds
an
attemptn the
part
f
politicalcientists
o
create
"halo
effect"round
heir
heoretical
ormulations.ur
longing or
full cientifictatus as edus tocreate kind f"cargo ult," ashion-
ing
cardboardmitationsf
the ools nd
products
fthe
hard ciences
in
the
hope
hat
ur
ncantationsould
make hem eal.
These hree
lementsf he
mplicitogic
hat
nforms
uch f
polit-
ical
science
esearchoday ppear
o mply
substantive
odel f
the
political
orld
which losely
esembleshe
eterministic
clock
model"
outlined
yPopper. hat s not o
say hat nypolitical
cientists
ctu-
ally ee
the olitical orld
his
way;nodoubtwe
would ll
agree
hat
itoftenppears obe quite orous,rregular,ndunpredictable.ather,
it is to
say
that
he
arsenal f
meta-methodological
rinciples
nd
procedures e
have
borrowedrom he
physical
ciences-or,
more
correctly,
rom
certain
hilosophical
erspectiven
thephysical
sciences-has
ome ous with n
array f
substantive
ssumptionshat
all
proclaim
he
principle
all
clouds re locks."
f we
search
nly or
generalizationsnd
regularities
n
political
rocesses,
f
we couch
ur
explanations
nly
n
terms f
the
overing-law
odel,
nd f
we view
politicalelationshipss ultimatelyausal nnature, e arecommit-
ting urselves-whether
e
recognize
t or
not-to a
disciplinary
e-
search
rogram
esigned
o
strip
way
the
cloudlikend
purposive
aspects
f
political
eality
n
order o
expose
ts "true"
locklike
structure.f
politicss
not
locklike
n
its
fundamental
tructure,
hen
48
For further
rguments
long similar
ines, ee
Terence
Ball, "Power,
Causation
and
Explanation,"
olity,
iii
(Winter
975),
I89-214.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 18/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS, AND POLITICS
505
thewhole
rograms
nappropriate.e
believe
his
o be the ase:
he
current
uandaryn
political
cience
an
to a large xtent e
explained
by he
act hat,
y
hemselves,clock-model"
ssumptions
re
nappro-
priate ordealingwith he ubstancefpoliticalhenomena.
THE ADOPTION OF
THE
CLOCK MODEL AND ITS
EFFECTS
ON POLITICAL
RESEARCH
AND PEDAGOGY
The
movementoward
ard
cience
n the
tudyfpoliticss
a
phase
in
the cientific
evolutionfthe ast
everal
ecades. hegreat
reak-
throughs
n
physicsnd
biology,nd
theextraordinary
ncreasesn
research
undings
science
ecame national
sset,
reated mood
of sanguinexpectations.t is notsurprisinghatpoliticalcientists
sought
o share n
this
xcitingnd
remunerativedventure.
Politicalcience
was
invited
o
imitatehe
hard
sciences
y
some
of
the
more nfluential
hilosophersf science
n the
grounds
hat
politicaleality
ent tself
othe ame
owerful
ethodshat adproven
so
effectiven
physics
ndbiology. hat
s one
of thebasic enets f
the
ogical
ositivistraditionn
the
philosophyf
science,49nd
has
been startingoint ormany ooks ndarticlesesignedo show he
social
ciences
ndhistoryow
to achieve
"truly"cientifictatus.50
In
addition,herewas
mmediate
vidence f the
uccess
f thehard-
science
trategy
ithin
he ocial ciences
hemselves.sychologynd
economicsad
been he
firstisciplinesn
the
ocial ciences
o
move
in
this
irection,
emonstratinghe
possibilitiesf
experimental
eth-
ods,
sophisticated
uantitative ethods,
omputer
imulation,nd
mathematical
odelling.he
combinationf
philosophical
egitima-
tion ndthedemonstratedrogressfpsychologyndeconomics as
impossible
o
resist.
As a
consequence
f
these
egitimations
nd
demonstration
ffects,
the ncentive
tructuref
political
cience
egan
o
ncourage
n
orienta-
tion
modelled
n
the
physical
ciences. he
pressures
or
onformity
can
be
measured
n
terms
f
prestige,ournal
ublications,
ellowships,
and
grants.
Major sources f
research
undingnd
graduate
ellow-
ships,
uch
s theNational cience
oundation,
ave
beendominated
by thehardsciences;he socialscience ivisionsave been unior
49
ee von
Wrightfn.40),
chap. .
50See,
e.g.,
Nagel
(fn. 30); Hempel
(fn.
30), chap.
9;
May
Brodbeck, "Explanation,
Prediction,nd
'Imperfect'
nowledge," n
Herbert
eigl and Grover
Maxwell, ds.,
Minnesota
tudies n the
Philosophy
f
Science: Vol.
3
(Minneapolis:
Universityf
Minnesota
ress 962); Richard .
Rudner,
hilosophy
f
Social
Science Englewood
Cliffs,
.J.:
Prentice-Hall
966);
Rudner,
Comment:
n the
Evolving
tandard
View
in
Philosophyf
Science,"
merican
olitical
cience
Retview,ol.
66
(September
972).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 19/35
506
WORLD POLITICS
partnersn these gencies,
ndthepoliticalcienceection
asbeen he
most unior f all. Projects
hathavethe ppearance
f hard cience
havehad the nside rack
or ainingubstantialesearchupport.
Perhaps hemost mportantonsequencef this mitationf hard
science as been n emphasisn method s theprimary
riterion
or
judging he uality fresearchn politicalcience.
oday,
he
eading
researchraditionsend o
be definedy heirmethodologies
atherhan
their ubstantiveoci.One result f thisprinciple
f organization-
althoughertainlyot
necessaryonsequencef t-has
been hat he
valueof thiswork eems
o be measured rimarily
y its technical
virtuosity,nd only econdarilyy the mportance
f the problems
treatedr lluminated.
In the ast wodecades here as been tremendous
rive oward
quantificationn political cience. iker elebrated
histrend
n
a
recentommunicationothe
Americanolitical cience
eviewwhen
he
commented
hat ome wo-thirds
f
the rticles
n
recent
ssues f
that ournalwerebased
on
quantitativenalysis
mployingophisti-
cated
tatistics.5'uantification
as undoubtedly
ontributedo
major
advancesnpoliticalciencend other ocial ciences.ut t has also
led
to a
significant
umber f
pseudo-scientific
xercises
hat
xhibit
theform utnot thesubstance
f
research
n
the
physical ciences.
Such tudies ecomemore
revalent
hen he
use
of
quantification
s
treateds an end
n
tself
atherhan s
a
means
oward
nderstanding
concreteolitical roblems.
rrelevant
uantification
as
recently
een
the ubjectfsearchingritiques
n international
elations,52ompara-
tive
olitics,5"olicy
tudies,54
nd elsewhere.
Quantitativenalysisn political ciencehas moved ncreasingly
towardmore ophisticated
tatistical
ethods. ut he tructuref the
data in
social
science esearch
ften omes nto
conflict
ith the
assumptionsnderlyingonfirmatory
tatistical
heory.
he
problems
involved
n
applying
omplex
tatistical ethods
o
nonrandom,on-
linear,
r
nonadditive
ata
should
notbe
minimized.55
uch
of the
51WilliamH. Riker, uoted
in "Editorial
Comment,"
merican
olitical
Science
Review,Vol. 68 (June
974),
733-34.
52EdwardR. Tufte, Improvingata Analysisn Political cience,"WorldPolitics,
xxi
(July
969).
53
AndrewMack,
Numbers
re Not
Enough,"Comparative
olitics,
ii
(July975).
54 RalphE. Strauch,
A
Critical
ook at
Quantitative
ethodology,"olicyScience,
ii (Winter 976).
55
See,
e.g., Hayward
R. Alker,
The
Long
Road to Internationalelations
heory:
Problems f Statistical
onadditivity,"
orld
Politics,
viII
(July1966);
Hubert M.
Blalock,
"Correlated ndependent
Variables:
The Problemof
Multicollinearity,"
n
Edward
R.
Tufte, d.,
The
Quantitative
nalysis f
Social Problems
Reading,
Mass.:
Addison-Wesley970).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 20/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS,
AND POLITICS
507
inferential
ower
f these
methods
s lost
when
he
tructure
f the
datadoes
notconform
o therigid equirements
f
the heory.
hese
difficultiesaveproven
ormidable
nough olead some
tatisticians,
such s John ukey, t Princeton,o devise lternativeata-analytic
techniques
hat, lthoughotnearly
s powerfuls
themost dvanced
statisticalethods,re
more ompatible
ith
he
diosyncratic
harac-
teristicsf
social ndpoliticalata.56
erewe seem
o havefallennto
a trap omparable
o that fthe arly
hases fThird-World
evelop-
ment
when high echnologies"
erentroducednto
oor gricultural
countries
ithout egard ortheir
isruptiveonsequences.
e are
discoveringhat n intermediateevel
f statistical
echnology,hich
takes nto ccount hespecial haracteristicsf socialdata, s more
appropriate
o the socialsciences
han are the
very ophisticated
methods.
Running arallel o
this mphasisn statistics
n
political
cience
is an interestn mathematics
nd
the onstruction
f
simple,
ogically
rigorous
models. his
approach as
been
advocated
n
comparative
politicsy Holt and
Richardson,
ho
argue
hat political
cientists
musturn o mathematics"fthedisciplinestoprogresscientifically.
They re
carefulo distinguishhis
athfrom he tatisticalne: "In
making
n
appeal
formore
mathematics,
e are not
talking
bout
statistics..
. [S]tatisticsrovides
science
with
basis
for
rigorous
induction. ur
critique
uggests
hat
hecrying
eed
n
comparative
politicss
for
more igorous
eductionnd
this s wheremathematics,
not
statistics,s relevant."57
his statement
s echoedby
A. James
Gregor,ranYoung," nd
many
thers.
Thedifficultyithmathematicalodelssthathey suallymeasure
up poorly
o the
omplexities
fthe
phenomenaeing
modelled.
or
example,
ran
Young,
who
strongly
dvocatesheuse
of
modelling
methods
n
international
elations,
as
candidly
bservedhat The
inherent
azard fthis rocedure
s
that ts
products
ay isplay
ittle
relevanceo the eal
world
f
nternational
elations
or he
ndefinite
future."59olt
nd
Richardson,
n
the
ther
and, rgue
hat mathe-
matically
riented
olitical
cience
must
necessarily
ake
a
radically
56
Tukey,
xploratory
ata
Analysis Reading,
Mass.:
Addison-Wesley
977);
David
C. Hoaglin,
A FirstCourse
n Data AnalysisReading,Mass.:
Addison-Wesley,
orth-
coming).
57
Robert
. Holt and John
M. Richardson,r., Competing
aradigms
n Compara-
tive Politics,"
n Holt and John
E. Turner,
ds., The Methodologyf Comparative
ResearchNew
York:
Free Press
970),
70.
58
Gregor,
Political cience nd the
Uses
of Functional
nalysis,"
merican
olitical
Science Review,
Vol. 62 (June
i968), 425-39;
Young (fn. 34).
59
Ibid.)
96.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 21/35
508
WORLD
POLITICS
circumscribed
iew fpolitical
eality,utting
tself ree rom
roblem
solving:
A
science hat sheavily
ommitted
o dealingwith
ocially
andmorally
elevant
roblemsindsittle sefor
his ind
fparadigm
or for hecommitmentomathematicshat trequires.orpolitical
science o
advance,t must
hed his
rofessionalommitmento
solv-
ing
ocial nd
moral roblems."6"
Oneaspect f
themathematical
pproach
o
politics
eserves
pecial
mention:
he se
of
rational-choiceodels o
xplain olitical
ehavior.
These
models
reparticularly
nterestingecause
hey
ake hemost
intractablelementsfpolitical
rocesses-thendividual
ndcollective
choices
f
politicalctors-and
ry
o
treat
hem
eterministically.
ome
analystsave rgued hatfpoliticalciencesever obea true cience,
the
notion
f
rationality
ust
e
ts
entral
oncept.
or
xample,
iker
andOrdeshook
rawan
explicitnalogy etween
ationality
n
the
onehand
nd
thenotion fmechanism
n the ther:
...
it s clear
hat he
ssumptionfrationality
ndthe
ssumption
f
mechanismlay
omparableoles
n
the xplanationf
the
ocial nd
physical
orld.
he mechanical
ssumptions
ssert
hat here
s
some-
thingbout
hingshatssuress
they ill
usually)move egularly,
and therationalityssumptionssertshat heres somethingbout
people hatmakes
hem ehave
usually)
n
a
regular
ay.
n
each
case, he unction
s togeneralizebout
he
egularity.61
The kindof
regularities
iker
nd Ordeshookre
concerned ith
here reof
special
ype-"postulated"s
opposedo
"observed"egu-
larities.
rantinghat
hoices
n
empirical
ituations
sually
ail to
exhibit
he
degree
f
regularityecessary
or
warrantingeductive
explanationsnd theories,iker nd Ordeshookhoose o builda
theory
f
politics
n
thefoundations
f
how
people
would ct
fthey
were
ational
tility
aximizers.
his,
f
course,
eads
o a
theory
hat
fails
omodel
olitical
eality
ell.
But
he
ubstantive
oss s
considered
acceptable
n
ight
f
the
methodological
ain:
The
method f
postu-
lated
egularity
s
positively
ore
fficient,
ecauset
permits
he
asy
generation
f
hypotheses
nd
offers
single
nd
parsimonious
xplana-
tion
fbehavior."62
60
Holt
and Richardsonfn.57),
70-71.
61
William
H.
Riker nd
Peter
C.
Ordeshook,
n
Introductiono Positive
olitical
Theory
Englewood Cliffs,N.J.:
Prentice-Hall
973),
ii.
A
sympathetic et sober
evaluation
f
the
utility
f rational
hoice
models
or
xplaining
nd
predictingoalition
behavior s
offered
y
AbramDe
Swann,
CoalitionTheories nd
Cabinet
Formations
(San Francisco: ossey-Bass973).
62Riker
and
Ordeshook
fn.
6i),
11-12.
By "explanation,"
e can
onlyassume
hat
Riker
nd Ordeshook
mean
"definition,"
ince
the
postulationf rationalityefines
(hypothetical)ype
f
behavior,
ut does not
explain
t in
any way.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 22/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS, AND POLITICS 509
The
popularity
f
rational-choiceodels
n
politicalcience
would
bepuzzlingo nyone howasnot amiliarith he urrentierarchy
of
methodologicalnd substantiverioritiesn thefield. utwith his
hierarchyn mind, ome articularlyerplexingxercisesecome n-
derstandable.or example,n the recentlyublished andbook f
Political cience, .Donald Moon contributespieceon "The Logic
of
Politicalnquiry."6"his article egins ery romisinglyy articu-
lating
heD-N
model f xplanations well s
an
mportantlternative
to
it, the nterpretiveodel,which xplains ehaviorn terms f
motives,ntentions,ules nd norms, tc.Noting erious efects
n
bothmodels,Moonturns o the ask f synthesizinghe wo n order
tocreate more omprehensiverameworkorpolitical xplanation.
But the "synthesis"urns
ut notto
be
a
synthesis
t
all;
insteadt
consists
f
a substitution
f
a rational ctor model
f man"for he
interpretiveodel
f
explanation.his eliminates
he looseness"nd
lackof
regularity
f
empirical
hoice
hat
s
capturedy
the
nterpre-
tivemodel nd substitutes
or t
"presuppositionsthat] pecify
he
decisional
remises
f
the
ctors
which, ogether
ith
escriptions
f
theirituations,rovidehe ationaleor he ctions hich ringbout
theoverall atternf socialbehavior . . that . . theoristsesire o
explain."64
Likethe
egularities
f
nteresto Riker
nd
Ordeshook,
hese
pre-
suppositions"repostulatedspecified) prioi. They eplace he
on-
tingentspects
f
empirical
hoice nd
action
with ausal nd
awlike
assumptions.hus,
hoices re reduced
o
an
algorithmpecifying
necessaryutcome rom necessarytility
alculation.he
net
result
ofthis ubstantiveeductionsa definitionfchoicentermsfcause-
and-effectelationships;
hich
s
to
say, definition
f
choice hat
denies he
xistence
fchoice
ertainly
his onclusion
ould
ppear
strange
f
we werenot
familiar ith he
currentriority
f
method
over ubstance
n
political
cience.
s it
is,
we can
see
that
Moon s
struggling
ith he ask f
fitting
isrecalcitrant
ubject
mattero the
strict
xigencies
f
a
methodological
otion
f
necessity
hat
ears ittle
resemblanceo the ealities
f
political
hoice.
Thestressn reductionistxplanation,uantification,ndformaliza-
tion as also ed to
an
overloading
f
graduate
urricula.
f
a
political
scientist
ust e a
statistician,sychologist,
nd
sociologist,
hen
ome
ofthe
raditional
urriculum
as o
be set
side
n
order o
make oom
63
Moon, "The Logic
of Political
nquiry:
A
Synthesis
f
Opposed Perspectives,"n
Greenstein
nd
Polsby fn.
A
I.
14Ibid.,
I94.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 23/35
510
WORLD
POLITICS
for hese ewer isciplines
nd
techniques.
nyone
who
has
taught
in a major raduate epartment
f
political
ciencen the ast wenty
years
illrecall
his nexorable
rocess
fnarrowing
nd technicizing
of thecurriculum;heforeign-languageequirementsave beenre-
duced, he
field xamination
equirements
avedropped
rom ive o
four o three,erhaps
ven
o two.By the
mid-ig6o's,
t had become
possible
or
omeoneo
become
Ph.D. n
political
cience
ith ittle
ifanyknowledgef
political
heory,
olitical istory,
oreign
olitical
systems,
nternational
elations,
ndeven
much bout
Americanolitics
andgovernment.
s
Hayward lker
asrecently
emarked:
Training
graduatetudentsntensivelynmultivariateuantitativeethodsuch
as
factor
nalysismakes ess
time
vailable
ordeveloping
sophisti-
cated wareness
f whathas
classicallyeen
thoughtnd
said
about
political
ife....
Thusmodernraining
s
particularly
nappropriate
or
understanding
odernolitics
n whichmany uestions
bout
ystems
restructuring
re continually
aised."65
Accompanying
his
narrowing
nd technicization
f thegraduate
curriculumas been
demoralization
f
the
older ntellectual
radi-
tionsnthe ocial ciencesnd npoliticalcience.oliticalheorynd
philosophy,
ublic
aw and
public
dministration,
nd
descriptive
n-
stitutionalnalysis
ave ll become efensive,
eripheral,
nd econdary
subject
matters.
s a
result,
large art
f he olitical
cienceradition
is
no
onger
eing
ransmitted
ffectivelyoyounger
enerations.
What
we
suggest
ere
s
that science"
s not set
of
methods
x-
tracted
rommathematical
hysics,
s
the neopositivisthilosophers
might
ave
usbelieve;
t s
ultimately
commitmento explore
nd
attemptounderstandgivenegmentfempiricaleality.hemeans
employed
n
pursuing
his oal
hould e
secondary:
n "good" cience,
methodsre fit o the ubject
matteratherhan ubjectmatter eing
truncatedr distorted
n order
o fit t to
a
preordained
otion
f
"scientificethod."
his s the esson
hat ocial cientistshould
ave
learned
rom
hephysical
ciences.nstead,hey
ave gnored
tand,
in
the rocess,ave
undermined
hatAbraham
aplanhascalled he
"autonomyf nquiry.""f social ciences to redeemtself,Social
scientists
eed
to
construct
heir
wn notions f
good
science,'
heir
own
methodological
pproachppropriate
o their
articular
ubject
matter....
This
view
mplies
iving
p
thenotion hat heres
some
65
Alker,
"Polimetrics:
ts
Descriptive
oundations,"
n
Greenstein nd
Poisby
(fn.
3), VII,
57.
66
Kaplan fn. 1),
3.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 24/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS,
AND
POLITICS
511
close nalogy
n
the
social
ciences
o basicresearch
n
thephysical
sciences."67
SECOND THOUGHTS
IN
PSYCHOLOGY
AND ECONOMICS
Much
of theknowledge
urdiscipline
as
acquired
f "scientific
method" as
been ilteredhrough
he wo pace-setting"
isciplines
n
social cience-psychology
nd
economics.f
we
lookclosely
t
the
present
tate
fthese
isciplines
hich
have
pioneered
n
the
use
of
statistical
ethods,
mathematical
odels, nd
experimentation,
e
find vidence
fsomedoubt
nd
disillusionment.
Psychology,
uch ikepolitical
cience,
as over
he ast
ouple
f
decades ntertainednearlyonstantgreat ebate" oncerninghe
conceptual
nd methodological
rinciples
nderlying
hediscipline.
How
should
man, s the
ubject
matter
f
psychology,
e
conceptual-
ized
What
ind f
knowledge
hould
sychology
ope
o cquire,
nd
howcan this
nowledge
est
e pursued?
ately,
ome articipants
n
this ebate ave
ecomemore
ndmore
ritical
f
he
stablished
rtho-
doxy
nd havebegun
o
question reviously
acrosanct
ssumptions.
These riticsrenot henevitableissentinginoritynany iscipline,
but nclude
ome f
therecognized
eaders
n theprofession-leaders
who, nfact,
avebeen
nstrumental
n creating
hevery
onceptions
they
owquestion.
The
problem
f
the
image
f
man"
n
psychology
as
been aken
up many
imes.
A particularly
renchantnd
lucid
discussion
as
offered
y
sidor
hein
n
his
962
presidential
ddress
o
theSociety
for hePsychological
tudy
fSocial
ssues.
hein rguedhat
among
psychologists
.
. theprevailingmage f Manis thatfan impotent
reactor,
ith ts
responses
ompletely
etermined
y
two distinctnd
separate,
lbeit
nteracting,
ets
ffactors:
i)
the
forces
mpinging
n
it
and
2)
its
onstitution
including
n the attererm
.. momentary
psychological
tates)."68
e held hat
his
mage
s
obviously
alse,
hat
psychologists
an
cling
o t
only
by
violating
urcardinal
bligation
as scientists-to
aintain
aithn our
ubject
matter,
o
support
crupu-
lously hatwhichwe observe,nd to observeullywithout illful
bias."69
What
his
magedenies,
nd whatobservation
learly
ttests
o,
s
67
Marc J.
Roberts,
On
the
Nature nd
Condition f Social
Science," aedalus,Vol.
I03
(Summer
974),
6i,
62.
68
Chein,
"The Image
of
Man,"
Journal
f
Social
Issues,
xviii
(October
962), 3.
69
bid.
Similar rguments
re
made in
Rom
Harre
and
P.
F.
Secord,
The Explana-
tion
of
Social
Behavior
Totowa,
N.J.:
Rowman
nd Littlefield
972).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 25/35
512 WORLD POLITICS
that
man
s "an active, esponsiblegent, ot imply helpless,ower-
less eagent."
hein
ontinues:
I am
saying
hatwe
should
ot
permit
ourselveso be seduced,s so many f us havebeen, ythose reten-
tious igh rder onceptualizationsfPsychologyhatwould enyMan
the uality hat s inalienablyis, he ualityffreedom-and,
n
the
denial,
make
Man,
s a
psychologicalgent,
naccessible."70
This argumentears strong esemblance
o
Popper's.
he deter-
minist
ssumption
f
cast-ironontrol"
ver hoice nd ction
s
rejected
for conceptionhat llowsfor he autonomyfhuman ction
n
creating,
s
well
as
in
respondingo,
he
world.
nterestinglynough,
Chein
laims o be a determinist-inhe
ense
f
viewing very
vent
ashaving ecessarynd sufficientonditions-butrgueshatmotives
andpurposeshare n thedetermination
fhuman
ctions,
hus
ring-
ing
them
nder irect
uman
ontrol.
ike
Popper,herefore,
hein s
concernedith he uestionfhow mental vents"
uch
spurposes,
deliberations,lans, tc.,
an
play part
n
bringing
bout
hange
n
the
hysical
orld.
In
his
presidentialddress eforeheAmerican sychological
sso-
ciation
n
i975,
Donald
Campbell
alled
n
psychologists
o show bit
ofepistemicumility,ndtorecognizehatallscientificnowledges
indirect,resumptive,bliquely
nd
ncompletely
orroboratedt
best."
He went n to argue hat eductionism
n
psychology ust e seen s
a
firsttep
n a
long-termesearchtrategy,
ot s an
end
n
tself:
Consideringhecomplexities
f
ourfield nd our models rom he
history
f
the uccessful
ciences,strategy
f
deliberatenitial ver-
simplification
as oberecommended
o
psychology.
ut his
uarantees
thatnthe arly tagesfdevelopmenthe-heoreticalrthodoxyill
be
misleadinglyeductionistic,
ill
portrayumanss more imple
machineshan heyctuallyre.
f
psychologiststsuch stage ere o
losetheperspective
hat
his iew
was a
product
f
theirong-term
strategy,ere nsteado exaggeratehedegree f perfectionf their
currentheories,
nd
were
o
propagate
hese
mmatureheoriess final
truth,
he
net
esult
ould e
destructive
f
popular
alues....
Here
again,scienceequiring
he
trategy
fdeliberate
nitial
versimplifica-
tion
may
ecruit
cholars
vereager
o
adopt demeaning,echanistic,
reductionisticiew fhuman ature.7'
Today,
t
east
ome
sychologists
ave
managed
o
move
eyond
he
mechanistic
mage
f
man,
nd are
pursuing
esearch
ased
upon
a
more
ealistic
nd useful
onception.mong
he
newer
pproaches
n
70Chein
(fn. 68), 2;
emphasis
n
original;
8.
71
Campbell,
On theConflict
etween
iological
nd Social Evolution
nd Between
Psychology
nd
Moral Tradition,"
merican
sychologist,
xx
(December
975),
II20,
II2I.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 26/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS,
AND POLITICS
513
social sychology,
or xample,s "attribution
heory,"
hich xamines
the assumptions
nd working
ypotheseshat onstitute
he
"naive
psychology"
f ordinaryeople s they
nterpretheir
wn behaviors
and the ctionsfothers.ee Ross, neofthe eadersn this ield, as
summed p
the ignificance
f this pproach:
The currentscendancy
f attribution
heoryn socialpsychology
ul-
minates long truggle
o upgrade hat
iscipline'sonceptionf man.
No longer
he stimulus-response
S-R)
automaton f radical behavior-
ism,promoted
eyond herank of information
rocessor
nd cognitive
consistencyeeker, sychological
man
has
at
last beenawarded
a status
equal
to that of
the scientist
who investigates
im. For man,
in
the
perspectivef attributionheory,s an intuitive sychologist ho seeks
to
explain
behavior and
to
draw
inferences
bout actors and
their
environments.72
What
f
psychology's
econd roblem,
hekind
f
knowledge
t
can
expect
o
attain bout
man?That
ssue
as
recently
een
given
areful
considerationy
theeducational sychologist
ee Cronbach.
Reflecting
on his
experience
n
experimental
ocial
psychology
ver
the ast two
decades,
Cronbach sks the question,
Should
social
science spire
to
reducebehavioro laws?" He observes hat Social scientistsenerally,
and psychologists
n particular, ave
modelled heir
work on
physical
science, spiring
o amass
mpirical eneralizations,
o restructure
hem
intomore
general aws,
nd to
weld scattered
aws
nto
oherent
heory.
That
lofty
spirations
farfrom
ealization.""
The essential
ifficulty
ith
this
methodology,
ronbach
rgues,
s
that
ocial
science
aws,
unlike
physical
aws,
seem
to
be
highly
muta-
ble. As he puts t,"Generalizationsecay."Further,At one timea
conclusion
escribes
he
existing
ituation
well,
at
a
later time
t
ac-
counts
for
rather ittle
variance,
nd
ultimately
t
is
valid
only
as
history.
he
half-life f
an
empiricalproposition
may
be
great
or
small.
The
more
open
a
system,
he shorter he half-life f
relations
within t are
ikely
o be."
He
compares
he ask
of
building
heories
n
this
way
with
mechanical
ssembly roblem:
It is as
if
we
needed
gross
f
dry
cells
to
power
an
engine
nd could
make one
a
month.
The energywould leak out of thefirst ells beforewe had half the
battery
ompleted.
o
it s with he
potency
f our
generalizations.""
72
Ross, The Intuitive
sychologist
nd
His Shortcomings:
istortions
n the
Attribu-
tion Process,"
n L.
Berkowitz,
d.,
Advances n
Experimental
ocial
Psychology,
(New
York:
Academic ress
977), i74.
73Cronbach,
Beyondthe
Two Disciplines
of Scientific
sychology,"
merican
Psychologist,
xx
(February
975),
ii6, I25.
74
bid.,
22-23.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 27/35
514
WORLD POLITICS
Atthe ndof this
rticle, hich ecountswo
decades
f
aspiration
toward
nomologicalsychology,ronbach
rites:
Social
cientistsre ightly
roud f he iscipline e draw
rom
henatu-
ralscienceide fourancestry.cientificisciplines whatweuniquely
addto
the ime-honoredays f tudying
an.
oo narrow
n
dentifica-
tion
with cience,owever,
asfixed ur yes pon
n nappropriateoal.
The
goalofourwork,
have rgued ere,
s not o
amass eneralizations
atop
whicha theoreticalower an some day be
erected.... The special
task f he ocial cientist
n
eachgeneration
s
to
pin
down
he
ontempo-
rary acts. eyond hat, e shareswith
he
humanisticcholar
nd
the
artist
n
the ffort
o
gain
nsight
nto
ontemporaryelationships,
nd
to
realign heculture's iewofmanwithpresentealities.75
Economics,
ike
psychology
nd social
psychology,
as also
been
having
ts roubles
n
recent
ears.
he
critical
hemes
ave
been
ur-
prisinglyonsistent;
hefield
s seen s isolated nd
inbred,
ith ts
formal
models
earing ery
ittle
esemblance
o
the
mpirical
orld
with
which conomists
resupposed
o
be
concerned.hese riticisms
havefor
quite
ome ime eenthe tock-in-tradef such
stablished
gadfliesf theprofessions
Gunnar
Myrdal
nd
John
enneth al-
braith. yrdal,or xample,asarguedhat conomistsavefailed o
produce elevantnowledgeecause
f
an
inappropriate
ommitment
to
themethods
f
the
impler
atural ciences:
In
recentdecades . . therehas been a
strenuous, ven strained, ffort
amongmy economic
olleagues
o
emulatewhat
they onceive
f as
the methods f the natural ciences
y
constructingtterlyimplified
models, ften iven
mathematicalressing....
It should e clear,however,hat his doptionf a form,which he
natural
cientists,
n
more imple, ointed
uestions,an usefor
nalysis
and
presentation,oes
not
eallymake
he ocial
ciences ore cientific,
if
that orm
s
not
dequate
o
social eality
nd
therefore,
ot
dequate
for
he nalysis
f
t.76
Similarly,
albraith
sed theoccasion f his
972 presidentialddress
to
the American
conomicAssociation o chide
the
profession
or ts
failureto
come to grips with
practical conomic
problems: "Neo-
classical rneo-Keynesianconomics, houghproviding nlimited p-
portunities
or
demanding
efinement,
as
a
decisive law.
t
offers
o
usefulhandle
for
grasping
he economic
roblems
hat
now
beset
he
modern
society.
. .
No
arrangement
for
the
perpetuation
of
thought
75Ibid.,
I26.
76Gunnar
Myrdal,
Against
he
Stream:Critical
ssays
on
Economics
New
York:
Vintage I972), I43.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 28/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS,
AND
POLITICS 515
is securefthat
houghtoesnotmake
ontact ith heproblemshat
it spresumed
o olve."77
These
oubts
ndconcernsave ately ecome bitmore
widespread.
MarcRoberts,youngerconomist,ssertshat a significantropor-
tion frecentheoreticalork n
economicsasbeen f ittle
cientific
value.
Many
apers xploreuestionsosednotby heworld tself,
ut
by omeone
lse'smodel."78heseviews eem o be shared y ome f
themost espectedeaders
f
the conomic
stablishment.
skar
Mor-
genstern,
n
an
importantaperpublished
n
1972, argues
hat
co-
nomics s in
a
crisis ecause t lacks theconcepts, ethods,nd
philosophy
t needs
o deal
adequately
ith ocial
nd
politicaleality.
Following discussionf currentquilibriumheory, orgenstern
observes:
The contrastith eality
s
striking;
he ime
ascome
or
conomic
theoryoturn roundo"face hemusic."
Theres, f
ourse,lways
he
ossibility
nd he
emptation
f
proving
all sortsf heoremshich ave
o
empirical
elevancehatsoever..
Yet he
ltimate
riterion
s whetherhat
he heoremssertss what
is foundnreality.ne annotelp ut eremindedfHansChristian
Andersen's
tory
f the
Emperor's
lothes.79
Wassily
eontief,
ho won
theNobel Memorial
rizefor he
n-
ventionf
nput-outputnalysis,
as
struckn
even
more essimistic
note. n hispresidentialddress o the
AEA, given wo years
efore
Galbraith's,eontief
rgued
hat
The
uneasiness
in economics]
s
caused
ot y
he rrelevance
f he
racticalroblems
owhich
resent-
day
economistsddress
heir
fforts,
utrather
y
the
palpable
nade-
quacy f the cientific eanswithwhich hey ry osolve
hem.....
Uncriticalnthusiasm
or
mathematicalormulationends
ften o
conceal
he
phemeral
ubstantive
ontent
f
the
rgument
ehind he
formidableront
f
algebraicigns."
e concludedhat
In
no
other
field
f
empiricalnquiry
as
so
massive
nd
sophisticated
statistical
machinery
een
usedwith uch
ndifferent
esults.""
The
problems
n
economics,
s in
psychology,
ould
seemto
be
primarilyubstantive.orgenstern,ounding uch ikePopper, oints
77John
K. Galbraith,
Power
and the
Useful
Economist,"
merican
Economic Re-
view,Vol.63 (March 973),
2.
78
Roberts fn. 67), 6o.
79
Morgenstern,ThirteenCritical Points in Contemporary conomic Theory,"
Journal
of
Economic
Literature,
x
(December
972),
ii64-65.
80
Leontief,
Theoretical
ssumptions
nd
Nonobserved
acts,"
American
Economic
Review,
Vol. 6i
(March 971), I, 2, 3; emphasis
n
original.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 29/35
516 WORLD POLITICS
tothe ailuref conomicsodeal eriouslyith he onphysicalspects
of conomicrocesses:
...
the overwhelmingmphasis
n
the physical spects f the economic
process
.
. seemsone-sidedwhen we realize that t is plans, decisions,
preferences,tates f nformation,xpectations,tc., tc., hat etermine
themovementndsignificancefthephysicalomponentsf thewhole
economichenomenon.e arefar rom avingmore han road otions
of
howto describend measure heir hare n a concreteituation.o
we evenhave goodmethodologye could pply?81
It
used o
be,
nd
apparentlytill s in much f economicheory
f
notpractice,hat hese ecisionsnd expectationsouldbe discounted
because hey ended o cancel ne anotherut n the lassicalmarket
situation.oday,however, any conomiststtributelargepart f
thediscipline'smpiricalilemma oa failureoappreciate
ow
xten-
sively olitical ecisions
ow
overridehe
mechanismsf themarket.
Galbraith
bserves
hat
in
placeof themarketystem, e
must
ow
assume hat or pproximatelyalf f all economic utput heres a
power r planningystem."82he effectf this njectionf planning
into
he conomic rocess as been o upset hepredictiveapabilities
ofeconomic heory. obertHeilbroner,ncommentingn the nability
of economics
o
predict
hecourse f
a national
conomy,
emarks hat
"it
may be
that his
s
less
possible
han t
was,
because the
economy
itself
ow
s
so muchmore
creature
f decision
making,
nd so much
less
theoutcome
f
sheer
nterplay
f
mpersonal orces,
hat
rediction
becomes
nherently
ore
difficult."83
This
major problem
n
economics
would
seem
to
have
important
implicationsorpolitical cience. or what the economists re saying
is that
o
the extent heir
ubject
matter
s
becoming
more
political,
t
is
becoming
ess
susceptible
o
scientific
nd formalistic
ethodologies.
The
impact
f
decisions,
f
the
possibility
f
shifting
he
economy
n
new
directions,
ndermines he
regularity
f the
impersonal
orces
that
previously
llowed
for successful
redictive
nd
modelling
xer-
cises.
This conclusion
oes not
augur
well for
those
who
envision n
eventually
ormalized
olitical
science.
ndeed,
the
tendency
eems
tobe in theopposite irection;conomicsmaybe becomingmore ike
political
cience
A
second
and related
problem
conomists
ave had to
deal with
deserves
mention: he
problem
f
decaying eneralizations.
ike
psy-
81
Morgenstern
fn.
79),
1187-88.
82
Galbraith
fn.
77),
4.
83
Quoted n Wade
Greene,
Economistsn
Recession,"
ew York
Times
Magazine
May
12,
1974,
p.
64.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 30/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS, AND
POLITICS 517
chology,conomicsasbeen nsuccessful
n
ts
ttempt
obuild
asting
empirical
odels
f
ts
ubject
matter.sLeontief
uts
t:
In
contrastomost hysicalciences,
e tudy systemhats
not
nly
exceedinglyomplexut lso na statef onstantlux. haven mind
not he bvioushangen the ariables
. . that ur quationsre up-
posed oexplain,ut he asic
tructuralelationshipsescribedy he
form
nd he arametersf hesequations.n ordero
knowwhat
he
shapes
f
these tructural
elationships
ctually
re
t
anygiven ime,
we
have
o
keep
hem nder ontinuous
urveillance.84
These second houghtsn economics
nd psychologyllustrate
he
degree owhichhe wo ellwether
isciplinesrenowreassessingheir
earlierxplanatorytrategiesndmeta-methodologicalommitments.
Clearly,heir ttemptsodealwith he
omplexities
f
social ealityn
terms f a
modelof scientific ethod orrowedrom hephysical
sciences as run ntomoredifficulties
han
hey
ad
expected. he
ambivalence
f this fforto
bring
he human
nterprise
nder
he
categoriesnd logic
of
the hard sciences
as
been
captured y
the
economistnd
social
philosopher
lbert
irschman,
ho
points
ut
ina recentook-in
a
sectionntitled
A
Passion or hePossible"-that Most ocial cientistsonceivetas their xclusiveask odiscover
and stress
egularities,
table
elationships,
nduniform
equences
.
."
ratherhan
ecognizing
the
multiplicity
nd
creative
isorderf the
human
dventure."e
maintainshat
he social
cientistsould
be
surprisedndeven distraught
f their
earch or
generalaws
were
crowned ith
otal
uccess,"nd
concludes,
Quite ossibly
. .
all the
successiveheoriesnd modelsn the ocial
ciences,nd the mmense
effortshat o into hem,remotivatedythenoble,funconscious,
desire
o demonstratehe
rreducibility
f the ocial
world o
general
laws n
no
other
way
would
t
have
been
possible
o
affirm
o con-
clusivelyhe ocialworld s the
realm f
freedom
nd
creativity.
85
The
philosophy
f
ciencetself
s
experiencingprocess
f
re-evalua-
tion
nd
reorientation
imilar
o
that
aking lace
n
psychology
nd
economics.
he
article
yPopper
hichwe
have
sed
s
a
metaphorical
guide
or ur wn
hinking
s but
ne
example
f
more
eneral
rend
inthefieldxemplifiedyhiswork86nd that fPolanyi,87anson,88
84Leontief
(fn. 80), 3.
85
Albert . Hirschman, Biasfor
Hope (New
Haven: Yale
University
ress
971), 27.
8"Popper
(fn. ); Conjectures
nd
RefutationsNew York:Basic Books 963); The
Logic of
Scientificiscovery New
York:
Basic Books
959).
87
MichaelPolanyi, ersonal
nowledge Chicago: University
f
ChicagoPress
958).
88
Norwood R.
Hanson, Patterns
f Discovery Cambridge:
CambridgeUniversity
Press1958); Observation
nd
Explanation:
A
Guide to
Philosophy f
Science
New
York:
Harper nd
Row
97i).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 31/35
518 WORLD POLITICS
Kuhn,89 uine,90akatos,91oulmin,92
nd
many
thers.
oday,
he
pre-eminentosition eld by ogical ositivismn thephilosophyf
science eems o be weakening.hilosophersf science o longer ee
their oleas one of egislatinghe rules" f science; hey re more
likely opursue escriptivendexplanatoryodes
f
research.cience
is viewed s an activityr a process, ot imply
s a
logical roduct.
Accordingly,
n
appreciations beginningo develop or hedegree
to which cience-humankind'softiestntellectualchievement-is
groundednd dependentponbasic ommon ense nd informals
wellas formalizedubstantivenowledge.93hilosophersre earning
more
bout ow
cience rows nd how t prospers.he newer itera-
turenthe hilosophyf ciences rich n nsightsnd mplicationsor
the nterprisef social cience.
IMPLICATIONS
If the
whole
f social
eality
as
distinctive
ropertiesendering
t
unamenableo simpledeductive-nomologicalorms f explanation,
this
s
especiallyhe asefor he tudy
f
politics hich,
f
ll
the ocial
sciences,
ocuses
most
irectly
n
collective
oal-seeking
nd
adaptive
processes. political cience olely oncerned iththe search or
regularities
hich onstrainhoice
would
miss
hedistinctive
spect
of
politicaleality,
hich s
the fforto
escape
rom
onstraints,
o
dis-
cover alue-optimizing
olutions
o
problems
n
the context
f
con-
straints.
The
anthropologistohn
W. Bennettecommendsn
approach
o
anthropologicalheory
nd
research hich s orientedround
he on-
cept f daptation:
Instead
f abstractions
rom
ehavior,
ike
culture
r
the reductive
formulas
f
sychology
r
genetics,adaptation]
ocuses
n
humanctors
who
ry
o
realize
bjectives,atisfyeeds,
ndfind
eace
while
oping
with
resent
onditions.
n their
oping,
umans
reatehe ocial uture
in the ense
f
generating
ew
roblems
r
perpetuating
ld
ones nd
may venmodify
he
biological
onstruction
f
the
population
n
the
process....By nalyzing
he actorshat
uide
he hoice
f
trategies,
89
Thomas S. Kuhn,The Structuref ScientificevolutionsChicago:Universityf
ChicagoPress
962).
90
W. V. 0. Quine, Ontological
elativityNew
York:
ColumbiaUniversity
ress
i969).
91
mre Lakatos, "Falsificationnd the
Methodology f Scientific esearchPro-
grammes,"n Lakatos nd
Alan
Musgrave, ds., Criticism
nd
the Growth f
Knowl-
edge (Cambridge: ambridge niversity
ress
97o).
92
Stephen Toulmin,
Human
Understanding, (Princeton:PrincetonUniversity
Press 972); Foresight
nd
UnderstandingNew
York:
Harper nd Row
i96i).
93
SeeCampbell fn. 1).
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 32/35
CLOUDS, CLOCKS, AND POLITICS 519
we gain
knowledgef thepossibilitynd direction
f
change nd the
relationf
human
ehavior
o
the
milieus.94
We would rgue hatwhat
Bennett
as to
say
bout
nthropology
applieswithevengreater orce o political cience: the mportant
phenomena or an
adaptationalnthropologyre dynamic uman
purposes,eeds nd
wants... " The emphasisught o shifttoward
strategicoping,hat s, theattempto realize ndividualnd social
objectiveshrough
hemobilizationf social nd material esources.
This categoryf
human ehavior as become ominantn thecon-
temporaryorld
with ts nterdependencend growingonstraintsn
free ction.""
DuncanMacRae rgues similarhesis egardinghedevelopment
ofthe ocial
ciencesn the ast everal ecades.
They
the
ocial
ciences]
aveevolved rom n earlier orm f social
analysis,ess pecializednd recondite,y mitatinghenatural ciences
. . . many social
scientists ave become convinced hat the most effec-
tive ath o useful
pplicationies hroughbjectiveesearchnd theory
construction,ree rom he omplicationsf deologicalndphilosophical
dispute. heyhave
thusdeveloped istinctechnicalerminologiesnd
methods f research,pecializedournals nd programsf graduate
instruction.
hrough
hese
devices
hey
have
separated
he
discourse
of
pecialists
rom
hat
f
the
general ublic,
nd the ommunications
f
the ndividual pecialists
rom
ne another. he course
f
the social
sciences uring
he
past
several
ecades
has thus
been
guidedby
the
model f natural
cience-howeveristinct
heymay
eem
from t to
natural
cientists
hemselves.96
MacRae's
olution
o
this
roblem
f
thewithdrawal
f
thesocial
sciencesromocial roblemolvingsto ntroducento heuniversity
a
"disciplinef
policy nalysis"
hichwill
combine
ocial
heoriesnd
analysis
ith
isciplined
thical
iscourse.
e believes
hat he
present
situation
f
cognitive
nd valuative
ragmentation
n
the
disciplines
f
social
cience an
only
be
overcome
y
an
institutional
olution-the
introductionf
research
nd
teaching epartments
f
policy nalysis
and
applied
ocial cience.97
We havesomewhatess
faith n
organizationalolutions,
nd
areconvincedhat he
discipline
f
political
cience-which astended o
abandon he ask
MacRaenow
wishes o
ssign
o a
special iscipline
94Bennett,
"Anticipation,
daptation,
nd the
Concept
f Culture
n
Anthropology,"
Science,
Vol.
192 (May 28,
I976),
847.
95Ibid.,
850, 851.
96
MacRae, The Social Function
of
Social
Science
(New
Haven: Yale
University
Press 1976),
3.
97Ibid.,
77ff.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 33/35
520
WORLD
POLITICS
is
still
apable
f
reasserting
centralole
n
the
tudy
nd evaluation
ofpublic olicy. he powerful
ttraction
f
the
xample
f
thenatural
sciences asbegun ofade
s our
fforts
ave allen
hort four
spira-
tions. espite heprominencef the rend mong urmethodologists,
in our
eadingournals,
nd
n
some
f
our
eading
entersf
graduate
instruction,he verwhelming
ajorityfthe rofession
n
theUnited
States
nd
abroad ither
ctively
esists
he
model, xperiences
sense
of
obsolescenceecause f
tsprominence,
r s indifferent
o t.Most
of
he ublished ork
n
political
cience,ettlesor oals ess
mbitious
than
nomotheticxplanation.
his work ncludes
escriptive
r his-
toricalccountsrcase tudies akingimited se
of
heoretical
rame-
works nd generalizations,nd contributeso the imsofunderstand-
ing, nterpreting,nd exploringolitical ealitynd policy
lternatives
whichMacRae dentifiess crucial
o
policy nalysis.
One mightmake
hecase
that
he earch
or
greater
igor
n our
understandingfpolitics
ight ave
mademore
rogress
f
ts
laims
and
expectationsad
been
ess
xtreme,
ess
xaggerated,
essdifficult
to quarewith recalcitrant
eality. more
autious
pproach
o scien-
tificrogress,ecognizinghe eculiaritiesfhumanndsocial eality,
mighthave
resulted
n
a more
general cceptance
f
appropriate
quantification,
f the
heuristicalue f formal-mathematicalormula-
tion, xperimentalethods,
nd the ike.
It is of
nterest
hat
quarter
f a
centurygo,
n the
ftermath
f
WorldWar
I,
when hemovementoward
ciencen
the
ocialdis-
ciplines as ustbeginning,
his
elationship
etween
he search or
regularitiesnd man's fforts
o discoveralue-optimizingolutionso
hispredicamentsas more learlynderstood.ne hasonly o com-
pare n early scope
nd methods" ookwith he
more
ecent nes
cited bove. ome
wenty-fiveears go,many
f
the
pioneers
f the
behavioral
ovement
n
the
social ciences
ontributedo
a
volume
entitled
he
Policy
Sciences:
Recent
Developments
n
Scope
and
Method.
n the
eading
hapter,
aroldLasswell tated is
priorities:
"Ifour
policy
eeds
reto be
served,
hat
opics
fresearch
remost
worthy
f
pursuit?
. . What are the
most
promising
ethods f
gatheringacts nd interpretingheir ignificanceorpolicy?How
can
facts
nd
nterpretations
e
made
ffective
n
thedecision-making
process
tself
"
The same ssay elebrated
he
ntroduction
f scientific
methods
nto
the
social
ciences-statistics,
athematical
odelling,
and
related
pproaches.
utthis cientific
ardening
f
methodwas
set
n
the ontext
f
problemolving,
alue
larification,nd theen-
hancement
f thehuman ondition.asswell
ooked ponmethod s
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 34/35
CLOUDS,
CLOCKS,
AND POLITICS
521
making
ossible cts of
"creativemagination"hich
might
move
mankind
n
constructive
irections
way
rom
he yranniesnd catas-
trophesof
the I930's and
I940's.98
The connection etweenthe searchforregularitiesnd political
creativity-clearlyeenby that
eneration reshlyeturned rom
Wash-
ington nd the
military
heaters f World War
II-was
gradually ost
in
thedecades that
followed.
The
"methods"message
of
Lasswell's
sermonwas heard
and acted
upon
with the mixed
resultswe
have
reviewed,
ut the
"policy cience"
message
argely ellon
deaf
earsfor
reasonswe
have suggested
bove.
What
is
under
attackhere s
the
pecking rder,
nd
the
particular
setof prioritiesndresourcellocations, hichhave cometodominate
the
profession
n
the ast
decades. hese
priorities
nd
allocative
olicies,
and this
pecking
rder, re egitimated ot
by
successes
n
the
explana-
tion
of
political
reality,
ut
by the
example
and the
demonstration
effectf
thehard
sciences.
pecking rder
n
whichmathematization
and
sophisticated
tatisticalnalysis re
viewed
as the only sources f
"real"
or
"powerful" heory,
hile
theories roducedfrom
he
inter-
playof maginationnd induction retreated s "heuristic"r "weak"
theory,
annot be
justified y the
explanatory
erformance f
the
former. heories
are
inherently eak
in the human
sciences-both
those
hat ook
"strong" ecause heyook
like the theories f
physics,
economics, r
psychology,nd thosethat ook "weak"
because
they
derive
ypotheses
rom
heexaminationf
ndividual asesor historical
experience.
Another
spect
f
thepecking rder
which
s under
riticism
ere
s
thedistinctionetween ureand appliedpolitical cience. venin the
hard
ciences,
he
comparative
ntellectual
ayoffs
f
so-called
ure
and
applied
research re
not at all
clear-cut.mportant
iscoveries
ften
emerge
ut
of
applied
esearch.
n
the ocial
ciences,ncluding olitical
science,
his
difference
oses ts
meaning
ince
the
special
haracteristic
of
social
reality
s man's
adaptive
ehavior. he
part
of
the
discipline
which calls itself
ure
political
cience,
earching
or
powerful
nd
enduring egularities,asmissed heessential ointof itssubjectmat-
ter.
At
best
t
lluminates
he
context
f
political
ecisions;
ut t
eaves
unexplored
he
daptive
earching
rocess,
he
policy
ptions,
nd
their
consequences.
urely
he
study
f
public
policy-viewed
as
effortso
adaptto,cope with,
modify,
nd overcome
onstraints-is
s basic
and
pure
an
undertaking
s
is
the search for
constraining
egularities.
98
Daniel
Lerner
nd Harold D.
Lasswell,
ds.,
The
Policy
ciences:
Recent
evelop-
ments n
Scope
and
Method
Stanford: tanford
niversity
ress
950),
3, I2.
This content downloaded from 164.41.221.145 on Fri, 15 Aug 2014 21:49:46 UTCAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/11/2019 Almond e Genco 1977
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/almond-e-genco-1977 35/35
522 WORLD POLITICS
Indeed,we might rgue hat
he essence
f
political
cience-insofar
as it is to
be defined y
the
essence
f the
politics
t
studies-is
he
analysis
f choice n the ontext
f
constraints.hat would
place
the
search orregularities,he search or olutionsoproblems,ndthe
evaluation
f hese
olutionsn the ame evel.
hey
would ll be
parts
of a common fforto confront
an's
political
ate
with
igor,
ith
the
necessarybjectivity,
nd
with
n
nescapable
ense
f
dentification
with he ubject
matter hich he
political
cientisttudies.
Our
policies
fresearch
upport
nd
professionaltraining
eed o
be
freed
rom
mitatinghe hard sciences. olicy
tudies,nstitutional
studies,
nd philosophicallyophisticatedvaluativetudies
re
claim-
ants n researchupport ith smuch egitimacys is currentlyc-
corded
mathematical,tatistical,
nd
psychological
nd
sociological
reductionisttudies.
nowledge
f
political
ubstancen ts
nstitutional,
historical,ndphilosophicalspects
astobe
re-established
n an
equal
footing
ith
ophisticated
ethodologies
nd reductionist
nowledge
in
our
programs
f
graduate
raining.
whole
ibrary
f
meta-method-
ological
andbooksnd primers
mposinghemodel
f
hard cience
onpoliticalealityastobere-evaluatedn a new ight. hesevolumes
do not
represent
he true
ath"
o scientific
rogress;ather,heyre
a historical
eviation,
flirtationithmistaken
etaphors
hat
empo-
rarily
aptured
he
magination
f
social
scientists.
heir
historical
importances
thus
reat,
ut
heir
elevance
o
practicalesearchrob-
lems
n
the social ciencess limited. o
progress
cientifically,
he
social
disciplinesequire
heir wn
philosophy
f
science ased
on
explanatorytrategies,
ossibilities,
nd
obligationsppropriate
o
human nd ocial eality.