Allied Grape Growers, 2014. All rights reserved. WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape...

Allied Grape Growers, 2014. All rights reserved.

WiVi Central Coast 2014State of the Winegrape

Industry

Nat DiBuduoAllied Grape Growers

March 19, 2014


Today’s presentation utilizes information obtained via Allied Grape

Growers’ (AGG) annual Nursery Survey combined with critical evaluation of reports and data made available by

the State of California. Wine shipment data is courtesy of the Gomberg

Fredrikson Report. AGG’s internal operations data along with numerous pieces of anecdotal evidence was also used in the formulation of conclusions.


Answering Some Key Industry Questions…….


Answering Some Key Industry Questions

Question #1:How did the 2013 crush size up?


California Production

Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsHow did the 2013 crush size up?

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3.76

3.143.25

3.06

3.70 3.583.34

4.024.25

4.33

3.673.49

3.673.67

Tons(in Millions)

Statewide Grape Crush 2005-2013

Other Crush Winegrape Crush

4.09 3.98

4.704.39


Region 2013% Change from 2012

Three-Year Average

% Above Average

North Coast 588,179 1% 520,482 13%Central Coast 593,497 8% 509,735 16%Lodi/Clarksburg 945,566 3% 848,045 11%Central Interior 2,026,213 8% 1,904,718 6%Other 91,436 2% 85,625 7%Total 4,244,891 6% 3,868,606 10%

A regional look at production, stated in tons crushed

How did the 2013 crush size up?



A look at average yields statewide

How did the 2013 crush size up?


2009 3,703,031 495,000 7.48

2010 3,588,985 505,000 7.11

2011 3,342,689 515,000 6.49

2012 4,018,237 530,000 7.58

2013 4,244,891 545,000 7.79

Average per acre yield from 2009-2013: 7.29

Crop Year

Winegrape Tons Crushed or Projected

AGG Estimated Bearing

Winegrape Acres

Average Winegrape

Yield



Question #1:How did the 2013 crush size up?

Answer:Clearly above recent

averages, both in total production and in

per acre yields



Question #2:What are the Central Coast grape

pricing trends?


For Categories >3,000 Tons 2011 2012 2013 Recent Trend

District 7 Chardonnay 1,068$ 1,141$ 1,186$ UpDistrict 8 Chardonnay 1,202$ 1,286$ 1,231$ Mixed/FlatDistrict 7 Gewurztraminer 901$ 1,108$ 890$ Mixed/Flat

District 7 Pinot Gris 980$ 1,036$ 1,122$ UpDistrict 8 Pinot Gris 1,011$ 1,203$ 1,227$ UpDistrict 7 Riesling 947$ 924$ 914$ Down Slightly

District 7 Sauvignon Blanc 933$ 966$ 1,048$ UpDistrict 8 Sauvignon Blanc 967$ 1,077$ 1,146$ Up

White Winegrape Pricing Trends - Districts 7 & 8 (Table 10 Avg.)

Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsWhat are the Central Coast grape pricing trends?


For Categories >3,000 Tons 2011 2012 2013 Recent Trend

District 7 Cabernet Sauvignon 931$ 1,030$ 1,058$ UpDistrict 8 Cabernet Sauvignon 1,072$ 1,278$ 1,358$ UpDsitrict 8 Grenache 1,367$ 1,416$ 1,548$ Up

District 7 Merlot 939$ 989$ 1,016$ UpDistrict 8 Merlot 862$ 1,080$ 1,029$ Mixed/FlatDistrict 8 Petite Sirah 1,088$ 1,257$ 1,269$ Up

District 7 Pinot Noir 1,535$ 1,609$ 1,692$ UpDistrict 8 Pinot Noir 2,709$ 2,647$ 2,629$ Down Slightly

District 7 Syrah 907$ 968$ 1,019$ UpDsitrict 8 Syrah 1,144$ 1,243$ 1,250$ UpDistrict 8 Zinfandel 1,154$ 1,354$ 1,273$ Mixed/Flat

Red Winegrape Pricing Trends - Districts 7 & 8 (Table 10 Avg.)

Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsWhat are the Central Coast grape pricing trends?



Question #2:What are the Central Coast grape

pricing trends?

Answer:Mostly positive in recent years,

with minor categorical weaknesses



Question #3:How many acres do we really

have?


Bearing Non-Bearing TotalState Reported 459,187 19,222 478,409 State Estimated 508,000 38,000 546,000 DPR Permitted N/A N/A 608,000 AGG Estimated 530,000 60,000 590,000

2014 AGG Estimate 555,000 90,000 645,000

2012 Acreage Data Comparison

Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsHow many acres do we really have?

Notes: 2013 state data will be released in April of 2014.DPR data may include raisin variety acreage classified

as wine.


Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsHow many acres do we really have?

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Three YearsAgo

Two YearsAgo

One Year Ago Currently

Range of Potential California Winegrape Acres Planted (Current Year 2013/2014)



Question #3:How many acres do we really

have?Answer:

Much more than the state has historically reported or estimated



Question #4:Are Central Coast acres under-

reported?


District 6• Albarino• Gewurztraminer• Gruner Veltliner• Malbec

District 7• Primitivo

Are Central Coast acres under-reported?


Varieties that are under-reported in the Central Coast(for > 50 acres)




Following analysis of Central Coast Acreage and Production, it was concluded that the combined

District 7 & 8 reported bearing acreage is only off of actual by less than 1%.




An estimate of non-bearing acres from 2012

DPR/State Reported Total 105,275 Adjusted Bearing 91,506 Estimated Non-Bearing 13,769

2012 Acreage Data ComparisonCentral Coast, Districts 7 & 8



Question #4:Are Central Coast bearing acres

under-reported?

Answer:No, the Grape Acreage Report is

capturing nearly all bearing winegrape acres.



Question #5:What are growers planting today?

(other than almonds)


29% White

71% Red

Other Reds Include:GrenacheCab Franc

SyrahMalbecTannat

Other Whites Include:GewurztraminerRieslingViognierOther florals

What are growers planting today?


Cabernet Sauvingon

29.4%

Pinot Noir12.5%

Zin/Primitivo10%

Petite Sirah5%

Merlot3.5%

Rubired2.7%

Petite Verdot2%

Other Red6%

Other White2%

Sauvignon Blanc<1%

Muscat Alex/Canelli

1.4%

French Colombard6%

Pinot Grigio5%

Chardonnay13.7%

2013 Winegrape Vines Sold by California Nurseries



Question #5:What are growers planting today?

(other than almonds)

Answer:Cabernet Sauvignon….

and a few other varieties



Question #6:What about the drought?


What about the drought?




Question #6:What about the drought?

Answer:The drought will undoubtedly

cause concern and loss for California winegrape growers.

Production will likely be negatively impacted.



Question #7:What are the regional planting

trends?


Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsWhat are the regional planting trends?

Regional Allocation of Major Winegrape Vines Sold, 2013

High End

Mid Range

Value

FrenchColombard

Muscats

PinotGrigio

Chardonnay

Zinfandel/Primitivo

PinotNoir

Merlot

CabernetSauvignon

Petite Sirah

A high percentage of the “Value” plantings are in Lodi


Answering Some Key Industry QuestionsWhat are the regional planting trends?

Varieties charted are Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Pinot Noir and Zinfandel.

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

Breakdown of vines sold by categoryFive major varieties, 2010-2013

High & Mid

Value



Question #7:What are the regional planting

trends?

Answer:Coastal planting of major varietals has increased

substantially. Interior planting has shifted north to Lodi.



Question #8:Are we headed for surplus,

balance or shortage?


2009 3,703,031 495,000 7.48

2010 3,588,985 505,000 7.11

2011 3,342,689 515,000 6.49

2012 4,018,237 530,000 7.58

2013 4,244,891 545,000 7.79

2014 3,774,000 555,000 6.80

2015 4,132,500 570,000 7.25

2016 4,343,500 595,000 7.30

2017 4,581,250 625,000 7.33

Average per acre yield from 2009-2013: 7.29

Crop Year

Winegrape Tons Crushed or Projected

AGG Estimated Bearing

Winegrape Acres

Average Winegrape

Yield

Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage?


Average Statewide Yield = 7.29 TPA

Assumes no escalation in the current rate of annual vineyard removals…….(<2% per year).


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Est.

2015Est.

2016Est.

2017Est.

California Wine Shipments and Grape Production (for wine only)2009-2013 with estimates and projections thru 2017

Wine Shipments Grapes Crushed for Wine

2013 Wine Shipments estimated by AGG based on data obtained via theThe Gomberg Fredrikson Report, 01/2014

Millionsof Tons

Forecast shows production growth outpacing shipments in the near future




-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape AcresFrom 1990 with projections

Forecast shows acreage growth beginning to outpace the trendline by

2017.





Question #8:Are we headed for surplus,

balance or shortage?

Answer:We are not forecasting a shortage

in the foreseeable future


Questions?

You may download or view a copy of this presentation at:www.alliedgrapegrowers.org

Allied Grape Growers, 2014. All rights reserved. WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape...

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Transcript of Allied Grape Growers, 2014. All rights reserved. WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape...