Allianz-Pimco - The New Normal

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Allianz Global Investors LLC, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10105-4800. www.allianzinvestors.com

Reposition for a New RealityMoving Forward in Challenging Times

Presenter NameDate

© Copyright Allianz Global Investors 2009

1What We’ll Cover Today

Chapter 1. The World is Changing

Chapter 2. Rethinking Asset Allocation

Chapter 3. Paths to Tomorrow’s Portfolio

Repositioning for a New Reality │ 2


The World Has Changed

How will I meet my financial objectives?

Will traditional strategies work?

Do I need a new strategic mindset?


What Will the New Reality Look Like?

Key characteristics:

Rebalancing of global power

Re-emergence of inflation

Restrained economic growth

More frequent market shocks

© Copyright Allianz Global Investors 2009 Repositioning for a New Reality │ 4

Rebalancing of Global Power

Greater concentrations of wealth in economies once described as “emerging”

Accelerating pace of consumer demand, population growth

China has become a creditor nation

Built-up reserves of foreign currencies will influence capital markets


Source: World Bank

Global surge of the middle class

Re-emergence of Inflation

Growing demand will re-inflate commodities

Fiscal stimulus will increase global inflationary pressures


Source: OECD, Total Global CPI: all items, as of January 2008.

Ye

ar-O

ver-

Yea

r C

hang

e (%

)

Extended disinflation trend due to reverse

Restrained Economic Growth

“Speed limits” on corporate earnings

Constrained investment returns


(Real GDP – Year-over-year change)

Gradual recovery through 2010

Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2009

%

More Frequent Market Shocks

Greater volatility in capital markets

Unpredictable disruptions can have significant impacts


Spread to Treasuries

Uncertainty makes transitions bumpy

Source: LehmanLive. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. The indices do not reflect deductions for fees, expenses or taxes. High-yield bonds are represented by Barclays Capital High Yield Index; investment-grade corporates by Barclays Capital Credit Investment Grade Index; mortgage-backed securities by Barclays Capital Mortgage Index; and asset-backed securities by Barclays Capital Asset Backed Securities Index. Unlike high-yield bonds, asset-backed securities and investment grade corporates, Treasuries are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Corporate bonds involve substantially higher credit risk than US government securities.


2Rethinking Asset Allocation


The New Reality of Asset Allocation

Prepare for the unexpected


History may no longer be a reliable guide

Correlations can shift unpredictably

Diversifying Risk

Asset class diversification does not equal risk diversification

Low-correlating assets are driven by different factors

Manage unpredictability through a broader investment landscape



3Paths to Tomorrow’s Portfolios


Where Along the Road Are You?

Traveling toward the new reality


Path 3: Respond to opportunities

Path 1: Reinforce your core

Path 2: Reallocate your portfolio

Path 1: Reinforce Your Core

Issue:

The current market turmoil has you avoiding all risk assets or has thrown your portfolio off balance, potentially impeding your long-term financial goals.



Action Steps:

Re-examine your holdings

Take your risk temperature, including the risk of falling short of goals

Anchor your portfolio with a prudently managed core bond fund or stock fund

- Not overly concentrated

- Disciplined risk management


Issue:

The current market turmoil has you avoiding all risk assets or has thrown your portfolio off balance, potentially impeding your long-term financial goals.



Action Steps:

Re-examine your holdings

Take your risk temperature, including the risk of falling short of goals

Anchor your portfolio with a prudently managed core bond fund or stock fund

- Not overly concentrated

- Disciplined risk management

Path 2: Reallocate Your Portfolio

Issue:

With fundamental economic changes underway, traditional stock and bond allocations may no longer be sufficient.



Action Steps:

Revisit your current strategy

Assume prudent risks among a broad basket of asset classes, being mindful of continued market uncertainty- U.S. stocks and bonds

- International stocks and bonds

- Inflation-protected bonds

- Real estate

- Commodities

- Alternatives


Issue:

With fundamental economic changes underway, traditional stock and bond allocations may no longer be sufficient.



Action Steps:

Revisit your current strategy

Assume prudent risks among a broad basket of asset classes, being mindful of continued market uncertainty- U.S. stocks and bonds

- International stocks and bonds

- Inflation-protected bonds

- Real estate

- Commodities

- Alternatives

Path 3: Respond to Opportunities

Issue:

Short-term market dislocations and long-term change are likely to produce unique opportunities for enhanced returns.



Action Steps:

Establish a specific allocation for “special opportunities”

Seek asset classes uniquely poised to profit from long- and short-term catalysts

Examples:- Credit crisis created historic dislocations in bond

market

- U.S. fiscal stimulus is directing more than $100 billion to green projects

- Government investments in mortgages, banks to help stabilize financial systems


Issue:

Short-term market dislocations and long-term change are likely to produce unique opportunities for enhanced returns.



Action Steps:

Establish a specific allocation for “special opportunities”

Seek asset classes uniquely poised to profit from long- and short-term catalysts

Examples:- Credit crisis created historic dislocations in bond

market

- U.S. fiscal stimulus is directing more than $100 billion to green projects

- Government investments in mortgages, banks to help stabilize financial systems

Recap: Repositioning for a New Reality

History may no longer be a reliable guide for the future

Diversify your risks, not your asset classes

Embark on a three-part journey

- Anchor your portfolio with a core fund

- Reallocate your assets to diversify risks

- Include special opportunities for above-average return potential



aAppendix. Mapping Out a Strategy with Allianz Global Investors


Allianz Global Investors Solutions to Consider


- PIMCO Total Return Fund

- Allianz NFJ Dividend Value Fund


- Allianz NFJ International Value Fund

- PIMCO All-Asset Fund

- Allianz OCC Growth Fund

- PIMCO Global Multi-Asset Fund


- PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

- Allianz RCM Global EcoTrendsSM Fund


Laying the Groundwork: An Example

The table to the left represents an illustration of how a hypothetical investor who favors PIMCO’s analysis of global economic trends and has an appropriate financial profile and sufficient means, might capture those views in a portfolio optimized using PIMCO’s assumptions. You should note some distinct differences from traditional asset allocation strategies. Of course, one size does not fit all and this model is not intended to create a financial plan for any investor. It does not incorporate the specific financial characteristics of any specific investor, such as the amount of assets available, risk aversion, age, immediate or long-term financial objectives, tax objectives or other personal financial characteristics. It also assumes that an investor would take no responsive action to the markets over a considerable time. Because of the dramatic changes transforming the global economy, the recommendations could be changeable in the short term if trends evolve faster or slower than PIMCO’s analysis. The PIMCO model recommendations reflect market conditions as of 2007 and are subject to change at any time without notice. An asset allocation strategy does not assure a profit or protect against loss.


Midpoint (%)

Range (%)

Equities

United States 15 12-18

Other advanced countries 15 12-18

Emerging economies 12 6-18

Private 7 6-8

Bonds

United States 5 4-6

International 9 6-12

Real Assets

Real estate 6 3-9

Commodities 11 7-15

Inflation-protected bonds 5 4-6

Infrastructure 5 3-7

Special Opportunities 8 2-14

A Thought Leader


Cadence Capital Management is an independently-owned investment firm.

Additional Information:

PIMCO Total Return Fund

This Fund invests at least 65% of its assets in a diversified portfolio of fixed-income securities, up to 30% in foreign currency-denominated securities, and 10% in high-yield securities. Investing in foreign securities may entail risk due to foreign economic and political developments; this risk may be enhanced when investing in emerging markets. High-yield bonds typically have a lower credit rating than other bonds. Lower rated bonds generally involve a greater risk to principal than higher rated bonds. This Fund may use derivative instruments for hedging purposes or as part of its investment strategy. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments.

Allianz NFJ Dividend Value Fund

This Fund may invest in value securities. When investing in value securities, the market may not necessarily have the same value assessment as the manager, and, therefore, the performance of the securities may decline. This Fund may use derivative instruments for hedging purposes or as part of its investment strategy. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments.



Allianz NFJ International Value Fund

The Fund will normally invest in non-U.S. securities companies which may include emerging market securities. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail risk due to foreign economic and political developments; this risk may be enhanced when investing in emerging markets. To achieve income, the Fund invests a portion of its assets in income-producing (e.g., dividend-paying) common stocks. When investing in value securities, the market may not necessarily have the same value assessment as the manager, and, therefore, the performance of the securities may decline. This Fund may use derivative instruments for hedging purposes or as part of its investment strategy. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in these instruments.

Allianz OCC Growth Fund

The Fund may invest a portion of its assets in non-U.S. securities, which may entail greater risk due to foreign economic and political developments. This Fund may use derivative instruments for hedging purposes or as part of its investment strategy. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments.



PIMCO All Asset Fund

The Fund’s performance will depend on how its assets are allocated and reallocated among constituent Funds. There is no assurance that the investment objective of any underlying fund will be achieved. The allocation among the underlying Funds will vary, and the investment may be subject to any and all of the following risks at different times and to different degrees. Investing in smaller companies may entail greater risk than investing in larger companies, including higher volatility. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail greater risk due to non-U.S. economic and political developments; this risk may be enhanced when investing in emerging markets. The underlying funds may at times invest in mortgage-related securities and may use derivative instruments for hedging purposes or as part of an investment strategy. Use of derivative instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments. High-yield bonds typically have a lower credit rating than other bonds. Lower rated bonds generally involve a greater risk to principal than higher rated bonds. Although the Fund normally invests in a number of different underlying funds, it will be particularly sensitive to the risks associated with the individual fund(s) and any investments in which that Fund concentrates. The Fund's NAV will fluctuate in response to changes in the NAV of the underlying Funds. The cost of investing in the Fund will generally be higher than the cost of investing in a mutual fund that invests directly in individual stocks and bonds.



PIMCO Global Multi-Asset Fund

Fixed income securities will fluctuate in value because of changes in interest rates. The value of equity securities can fluctuate due to general market conditions not specifically related to a company, factors related to a company’s industry, or factors related to the specific company. Investments in non-U.S. securities may be more volatile and subject to special political and currency risks. Non-U.S. securities involving emerging markets may be subject to enhanced levels of these risks. The underlying funds may invest in mortgage-related securities, which are subject to the risks of the mortgages being prepaid. There is no assurance that any private insurers of the underlying mortgages will meet their obligations. High-yield bonds generally involve greater risk of default that investment-grade bonds. The underlying funds’ use of derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, and the risk that the fund could not close out a position when it would be advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments. Diversification does not ensure a profit or eliminate the risks of investing.



PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

This Fund may invest at least 65% of its assets in a diversified portfolio of investment grade corporate fixed-income securities of varying maturities and up to 30% in foreign securities, which may entail greater risk due to foreign economic and political developments. The value of investment-grade corporate bonds will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.

Allianz RCM Global EcoTrends Fund

The Fund may use derivative strategies for investment or hedging purposes. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments.

The Fund is non-diversified and may focus its investments in a small group of companies or industries. The companies in which the Fund invests may have limited operating histories and/or small market capitalizations. The Fund's substantial exposure to non-U.S. securities, including emerging markets securities, also involves special risks, including political and economic risk and the risk of currency fluctuations; these risks may be enhanced in emerging markets.


Additional Information about Indexes

Alpha measures a portfolio’s risk-adjusted performance, which is the difference between a portfolio’s actual and expected returns, given the level of market risk as measured by beta.Index returns are unmanaged. Unless otherwise noted, index returns reflect the reinvestment of income dividends and capital gains, if any, but do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions, or other expenses of investing. One cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe Australasia Far East (“MSCI EAFE”) Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of issuers located in the countries of Europe, Australia, and the Far East.

The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is composed of securities from the Barclays Capital Government/Credit Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Backed Securities Index. It is generally considered to be representative of the domestic, investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market. The Barclays Capital Credit Investment Grade Index consists of publicly issued U.S. corporate and specified non-U.S. debentures and secured notes that meet the specified maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements. To qualify, bonds must be SEC-registered. It is not possible to invest directly in such an unmanaged index. The Barclays Capital High Yield Index is an unmanaged market-weighted index including only SEC registered and 144(a) securities with fixed (non-variable) coupons. All bonds must have an outstanding principal of $100 million or greater, a remaining maturity of at least one year, a rating of below investment grade and a U.S. Dollar denomination. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities Index is composed of all mortgage-backed pass-through securities of Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The Barclays Capital Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Index include pass-through, bullet, and controlled amortization structures. The ABS index includes only the senior class of each ABS issue and the ERISA-eligible B and C tranches.

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index and represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000. It is generally considered representative of the small-cap market.


Allianz-Pimco - The New Normal

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Allianz-Pimco - The New Normal