Allegra Eating Out Panel, Quarterly Analysis Q1...

Allegra Eating Out Panel, Quarterly Analysis Q1 2013

Allegra Strategies, Eating Out Panel Q1 2013, May 2013©

Contents


Core Objectives, Scope and Research Methodology

Out of Home Dynamics

1. Executive Summary

2. Trends Dashboard

3. Consumption Patterns

Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops

4. Sandwich Retailers

5. Fast Food Outlets

6. Branded Restaurant Chains & Local Independent Restaurants

7. Department Stores/Supermarket Cafés

8. Hotels/Fine Dining Restaurants

9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go


Core Objectives and Scope

CORE OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE

Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013


Background The Allegra Strategies Eating Out Panel tracks consumer behaviour, perceptions and trends on a monthly basis to provide the UK’s most accurate and insightful continuous dataset on eating out trends.

Objectives

This indispensable research programme helps leading foodservice brands and key suppliers to:

• Track continuous consumer behaviour

• Develop detailed customer profiles

• Monitor brand and competitor success

• Understand and benchmark customer satisfaction

• Measure market share performance

• Improve competitive positioning

• Assess key areas for improvement

• Identify future focus opportunities

Scope Coverage includes:

• Last meal out of the home

• Type of establishment visited

• Time of day

• Food and beverage consumed

• Spend

• Party size

• Occasion

• Reason for choice of brand/location

• Qualitative brand perceptions

• Brand satisfaction rankings

• KPI scores (food, service, cleanliness, overall experience, etc.)

• Likely to revisit

• Net Promoter Score (likely to recommend)

• Customer brand repertoires

• Full consumer demographics

• Market value and volume sizing, based on consumer stated average spend (inc VAT)


Research Methodology

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY



Activity Details

Consumer Research • Over 18,000 in-depth online interviews with UK consumers per quarter

• 6,000 online interviews per month

Consumer Panel • Nationally representative panel, by region, age and gender • UK eating out consumers recruited

Data • 3 months raw data (January, February, March 2013) aggregated to Q1 2013

Desk Research

• Analysis and review of existing eating out research • Reviews of news articles, trade press, industry websites and key operators’ reports and accounts • Synthesis with existing Allegra Strategies databases and reports

Timing • January – March 2013 Quarter 1 (Q1)

No. of Pages • 156

TABLE I.1 – PRIMARY INFORMATION SOURCES


CHANNEL OPERATOR EXAMPLES

Coffee Shop/Café Caffè Nero, Costa Coffee, Starbucks, independent coffee shops etc.

Pub Restaurant Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Gastro Pub, Harvester, JD Wetherspoon, Toby Carvery, Local pub etc.

Fast Food Outlet Burger King, KFC, McDonald’s, Wimpy, independent take-away/fast-food etc.

Local Independent Restaurant Chinese, Indian, Italian, Thai, etc.

Sandwich Retailer Greggs, Pret A Manger, petrol station, supermarket, grab&go etc.

Branded Restaurant Chain Carluccio’s, Gourmet Burger Kitchen, Nando’s, PizzaExpress, Pizza Hut, Wagamama, etc.

Department Store/Supermarket Café M&S Café, Debenhams Café, Tesco Café, etc.

Workplace Offices and industrial units: Restaurant, canteen, on-site café, etc.

Fine Dining Restaurant Michelin starred, AA Rosette, Premium dining experience etc.

Hotel Independent and group managed hotels

College/School Canteen, on-site cafe, etc


Market Definition and Channel Segmentation

MARKET DEFINITION AND CHANNEL SEGMENTATION


TABLE I.2 CHANNELS AND DESCRIPTIONS WITHIN THE EATING OUT MARKET


Contents





2. Trends Dashboard


Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops






9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go


Executive Summary

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Eating Out Market Q1 trading hindered by adverse weather • The first three months of the year are typically challenging trading for

the eating out industry. However, Q1 2013 has been particularly testing as fewer people ate out during the first three months of the year

• Q1 2013 was defined by extremely poor weather conditions impacting footfall against a tough comparative in 2012

• The value of the eating out market has declined year-on-year by 5.4%, to £13.1bn total for Q1 2013

• 1.65bn meals and snacks were consumed out of home during Q1 2013, compared with 1.80bn in Q1 2012, a decline of 8.0%

• However, the consumers who did eat out spent more. Average spend increased across all day-parts with the exception of dinner, compensating for the affect of the reduced footfall in Q1

• The popularity of pub restaurants continues to go from strength to strength with sales growth of 7% to reach £2.43bn and volume increase of 8% to reach 187.4m consumers in Q1 2013. Focus on increasing food quality and good value for money is attracting consumers at the expense of other channels, particularly branded and independent restaurants

Lunch is under continued pressure • Total lunch market value decreased by 6.6% to £4.01bn for Q1 2013,

driven primarily by decreased frequency

• Visit frequency for lunch out of home declined by 7.8% in Q1 2013 compared with last year

• The average number of lunchtime meals consumed monthly dropped to 4.02 per person from 4.36 last year

• Lunch spend increased to £7.47, with growth of 5% compared with last year, lessening the impact of the significant decline in participation and frequency at lunch

• With the exception of fast food outlets and hotels, all channels experienced increased average spend for lunch

• Workplace spend increased by 9.4% to £3.50 and coffee shops increased by 5.9% to £6.25 per person

• Both Starbucks and Costa Coffee score highly for recommendation and re-visit by consumers at lunchtime in Q1 2013. JD Wetherspoon is the only brands to receive first place rankings for key performance indicators (low prices and value for money), alongside fine dining restaurants

• Average spend growth was hindered by a significant decline in spend at hotels, by 10% to £12.88, and 3% decline at fast food restaurants to £5.57, in Q1 2013



Executive Summary

Breakfast in growth • The strong growth of eating out for breakfast recorded in the last

quarter of 2012 continues in Q1, 2013 • The value of breakfast sales increased by 8.4% to £1.07bn for Q1,

2013, driven by growth in frequency and spend for this increasingly popular day-part. Share of value increased to 8.2% from 7.8% in Q1 2012

• The average number of breakfasts consumed monthly out of home

increased by 10.9% to 1.73 in Q1 2013 compared with 1.56 Q1 2012 • Breakfast spend has increased on last year to £4.65 per individual

consumer from £4.59 in Q1 2012 • With the exception of fast food outlets, sandwich retailers and

workplace, all channels experienced increased average spend for breakfast

• The main winner at breakfast is the pub restaurant in Q1 2013, with

growth of 9.2% increasing spend to £5.57 • JD Wetherspoon scored highly for recommendation and revisit scoring

by consumers for breakfast. The pub chain was also ranked in first place on five key performance indicators: good value for money, low prices, speed of service, menu choice and family friendly

Dinner occasion worst hit by eating out decline in Q1 2013 • Dinner market value has declined by 9.7% to £6.05bn, while still

maintaining largest market value share of 46% • Frequency and spend have declined year-on-year for dinner as the

extreme weather dampened consumer appetite for eating out in the evening

• The average number of meals eaten out of home per month in the

evening is down to 2.47 in Q1 2013 from 2.61 last year • Average dinner spend has decreased year-on-year, by 1.5% to £18.33 • Growth of spend declined in all channels, with the exception of pub

restaurants where spend was flat on Q1 2012

• Pub brands JD Wetherspoon and Toby Carvery lead the channel in popularity, with consumers ranking both brands highly for recommendation, re-visit scores and across key performance indicators in Q1 2013

• The hardest hit channel is fast food, suffering a decline in dinner

spend of 8.9% to £8.04 per person Snacking volatility • Typically dependent on consumer mobility, out-of-home snacking did

not escape the impact of the poor weather in Q1 2013 • With fewer people out and about, snacking participation dropped to

18% in Q1 2013, its lowest level in the history of the Eating Out Panel, down from 21% in Q1 2012

• The total average number of snacks eaten out of home per month

dropped to 4.11 in Q1 2013 from 4.48 last year

• However, snacking average spend increased by 19% to £3.65 compared with Q1 2012, albeit from a low base

• Costa Coffee is the most popular branded chain for snack purchasing,

with independent cafés and the local pub also gaining consumer snack purchasing share


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Contents





2. Trends Dashboard


Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops






9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go


Source: Source: National Office of Statistics, 2013, MET, www.tradingeconomics.com

FIGURE 2.1 GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND INFLATION RATE, UK 2011-2015F

Economic Backdrop

TRENDS DASHBOARD – ECONOMIC BACKDROP

Month Average Disposable Income per Week per Household Consumer Confidence Index

January 2013 £158 -29 February 2013 £155 -26 March 2013 £144 -26

TABLE 2.1 AVERAGE DISPOSABLE INCOME PER WEEK PER HOUSEHOLD AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, Q1 2013

7.70% 7.80% 7.10% 7% 7%

2.70% 2.70% 3.02% 2.95% 2.95%

0.20% 0.30% 0.41% 0.20% 0.29%

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00%

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

GDP Annual Growth Rate

Month Comments

January 2013 January weather was defined by snow, particularly in the two weeks between 10-25 Jan. By official reports, January has been described as the dullest in 11 years, with minimal sunshine and bitter cold snaps

February 2013 February was a cold month, especially in the south where it was reported as the coldest February since 1996

March 2013 Coldest March in 50 years, providing a challenging comparative to the sunny, dry March in 2012

TABLE 2.2 WEATHER TRACK, Q1 2013


Note: Market value and volume sizing, based on consumer stated average spend (inc VAT); Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

Out of Home Market Sales and Volume, Q1 2013

TABLE 2.3 MARKET SIZING, VALUE AND VOLUME, Q1 2013 YOY

TRENDS DASHBOARD – MARKET SIZING

Total Market Q1 2013 Annual YTD Q2 2012-Q1 2013

OOH Sales Value £ £13.13bn £54.48bn

YoY Growth % -5.4% -1.4%

OOH Volume 1.65bn 7.12bn

YoY Growth % -8.3% -2.1%

Day Part Q1 2013 Breakfast Lunch Dinner Snacking

Quarter 1, 2013 OOH Sales Value £ £1.07bn £4.01bn £6.05bn £2.00bn

YoY Growth % +8.4% -6.6% -9.7% +5.3%

Market Share % 8.2% 30.5% 46.0% 15.2%

Quarter 1, 2013 OOH Volume 231.1m 537.0m 329.9m 549.1m

YoY Growth % +7.0% -10.8% -8.3% -11.2%

Market Share % 14.0% 32.6% 20.0% 33.3%


*Note: Total snacks: Mid-morning, mid-afternoon and late evening snacks Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

Q1 2013 Q1 2012

Eating Out Participation 92.2% 95.3%

Non-Participation 7.8% 4.7%

Breakfast Lunch Dinner Snacks*

Q1 2013 Year-On-

Year Growth %

Q1 2013 Year-On-

Year Growth %

Q1 2013 Year-On-

Year Growth %

Q1 2013 Year-On-

Year Growth %

Average Spend £4.65 +1.3% £7.47 +4.9% £18.33 -1.5% £3.65 +18.9%

Party Size 2.5 +19.0% 2.6 +18.2% 3.4 +17.2% - -

Average Number of Meals 1.73 +10.9% 4.02 -7.8% 2.47 -5.6% 4.11 -8.3%

Average Number of Items Consumed per Person per Month

2.8 +21.7% 2.6 +4.0% 3.8 +26.7% 6.3 +26.0%

Q1 2013 At A Glance

TABLE 2.4 Q1 2013 AT A GLANCE

TRENDS DASHBOARD – Q1 2013 AT A GLANCE


*Note: Participation excludes respondents who answered “Extremely rarely or never” to the question “How often do you eat out?”


Participation

TABLE 2.5 EATING OUT PARTICIPATION*, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

PARTICIPATION Q1 2012 Q1 2013 ANNUAL GROWTH

Q1 2012-Q1 2013 %

Eating Out Participation 95.3% 92.2% -3.3%

Non-Participation 4.7% 7.8% 66.0%

FIGURE 2.2 DAY PART EATING OUT PARTICIPATION*, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

TRENDS DASHBOARD – PARTICIPATION

46% 47%

89% 90% 90% 89%

54% 53%

11% 10% 10% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012

Breakfast Lunch Dinner

Non-Participation

Participation

Snapshot Q1 2013 Participation Lunch eating out participation growth on Q1 Breakfast: -1 percentage point; lunch: 1 percentage point and dinner -1 percentage point, year-on-year



Average Spend OOH

FIGURE 2.3 AVERAGE SPEND CHANGE, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

TRENDS DASHBOARD – AVERAGE SPEND

Q1 2013 Spend Snapshot Day part average spend growth on Q1 Snacking +18.9%; Lunch +4.9% Breakfast +1.3%; Dinner -1.5%

£4.65 £7.47 £18.33 £3.65 £4.59 £7.12 £18.60 £3.07 £0.00

£2.00

£4.00

£6.00

£8.00

£10.00

£12.00

£14.00

£16.00

£18.00

£20.00

BREAKFAST LUNCH DINNER SNACKS

Q1 2013

Q1 2012



FIGURE 2.4 OUT OF HOME CONSUMPTION, AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY BY DAY PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 How often do you purchase and consume food out of the home in an average week as a breakfast, lunch and dinner?

Average Visit Frequency by Day-Part

Percent of Respondents

TRENDS DASHBOARD – AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY

4% 3%

15% 9%

2% 2%

6% 5%

8% 16%

8% 9%

9% 8%

17% 19%

17% 19% 6% 6%

15% 15%

17% 18%

8% 8%

16% 15%

22% 22%

15% 17%

19% 16%

20% 20%

54% 53%

11% 10% 14% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012


Very rarely

Less than once per month

Once per month

Once per fortnight

Once per week

Two to three times per week

Four or more times per week



Party Size and Composition

TABLE 2.6 AVG. GROUP SIZE, BY DAY PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

DAY-PART Q1 2013 Q1 2012 ANNUAL GROWTH

Q1 2012-Q1 2013 %

BREAKFAST 2.5 2.1 19.0%

LUNCH 2.6 2.2 18.2%

DINNER 3.4 2.9 17.2%

TABLE 2.7 GROUP COMPOSITION, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

TRENDS DASHBOARD – PARTY SIZE AND COMPOSITION

BREAKFAST LUNCH DINNER

Q1 Party Size Snapshot Largest party size at Dinner – 3.4

Family occasion Dinner – 21% of average party size includes children

Eating alone Breakfast – 36% of average party size composed of single people

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 36% 33% +3%

Two adults 33% 32% -1%

More than two adults

15% 16% -1%

With children

16% 19% -3%

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 27% 27% 0%



20% 20% 00%

With children

15% 19% -4%

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 8% 9% -1%

Two adults 43% 40% +3%


28% 28% 0%

With children 21% 24% -3%



Number of Meals and Number of Items Consumed

TABLE 2.8 NUMBER OF MEALS BY DAY-PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

TABLE 2.9 NUMBER OF ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME BY DAY-PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

DAY-PART Average Number of Meals Out of Home per Person per Month ANNUAL GROWTH

Q1 2012-Q1 2013 % Q1 2013 Q1 2012

BREAKFAST 1.73 1.56 10.9%

LUNCH 4.02 4.36 -7.8%

DINNER 2.47 2.61 -5.6%

SNACKS 4.11 4.48 -8.3%

DAY-PART

Average Number of Items consumed per Meal Out of Home per month

ANNUAL GROWTH Q1 2012-Q1 2013

% Q1 2013 Q1 2012

BREAKFAST 2.8 2.3 +21.7%

LUNCH 2.6 2.5 +4.0%

DINNER 3.8 3.0 +26.7%

SNACKS 6.3 5.0 +26.0%

TRENDS DASHBOARD – NUMBER OF MEALS AND NUMBER OF ITEMS CONSUMED

Q1 Number of Meals and Items Snapshot Number of Meals Breakfast growth 10.9% growth (from a low base) Lunch and dinner in decline compared with Q1 2012 Lunch -7.8% and dinner -5.6%

Number of Items All day-parts show growth of items compared with Q1 2012 Breakfast +21.7%, lunch +4.0%, dinner +26.7% and snacks +26.0%


Contents





2. Trends Dashboard


Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops






9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go



Food and Beverage Incidence at Breakfast (1 of 2)

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS – FOOD INCIDENCE AND BEVERAGE INCIDENCE

FIGURE 3.1 TOP 5 BREAKFAST FOOD ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)


TABLE 3.1 TOP 5 FOOD ITEMS, SANDWICH FILLINGS AND CROISSANTS AT BREAKFAST, Q1 2013

TOP 5 FOOD ITEMS Q1 2013

Traditional Cooked Breakfast

23%

Toast 16%

Eggs 15%

Hash brown 9%

Croissant 9%

n/a

-2%

3%

-24%

-5%

n/a

11%

12%

40%

28%

9%

9%

15%

16%

23%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Hash brown

Croissant

Eggs (scrambled eggs, omelette, eggs benedict, etc.)

Bread-based (e.g. bacon sandwich, toast, etc.)

Traditional Cooked Breakfast

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points

TOP 5 SANDWICH FILLINGS Q1 2013

Bacon 26%

Cheese 23%

Chicken 18%

Bacon and Egg 15%

Egg 14%

TOP 5 CROISSANTS Q1 2013

All Butter Croissant 56%

Almond Croissant 17%

Chocolate Croissant 10%

Apricot 5%

Pain Raisin 4%



Food and Beverage Incidence at Breakfast (2 of 2)

FIGURE 3.2 TOP 5 BREAKFAST DRINK ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)



1%

2%

0%

4%

5%

4%

4%

13%

17%

47%

5%

6%

13%

21%

52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Hot Chocolate

Bottled Water

Fruit juice

Tea

Coffee

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points

TABLE 3.2 TOP HOT BEVERAGES AND SOFT DRINKS AT BREAKFAST, Q1 2013

TOP 3 HOT BEVERAGES Q1 2013

Coffee 52%

Tea 21%

Hot Chocolate 5%

TOP 5 SOFT DRINKS Q1 2013

Fruit Juice 13%

Bottled Water 6%

Carbonated Drink – Cola 3%

Carbonated Drink – Diet Cola 3%

Milkshake 2%


Food and Beverage Incidence at Lunch (1 of 4)



Sandwich 18%

Chips/wedges/fries 11%

Salad (with or without meat) 7%

Chicken dish 7%

Burger 7%

TABLE 3.3 TOP 5 FOOD ITEMS AT LUNCH, Q1 2013

FIGURE 3.3 TOP 5 LUNCH FOOD ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)



0%

-1%

-3%

-5%

-4%

7%

8%

11%

16%

22%

7%

7%

8%

11%

18%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Chicken dish

Burger

Salad (with or without meat)

Chips/wedges/fries

Sandwich

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points



MEAL TYPE

SANDWICH BURGER

CHICKEN CHEESE EGG CHEESEBURGER BIG MAC GOURMET BEEF

Q1 2013 28% 16% 10% 18% 20% 15%

TABLE 3.4 TOP CONSUMED MEAL TYPES AT LUNCH, Q1 2013

MEAL TYPE

CHICKEN DISH FISH DISH

GRILLED CURRY ROAST FISH & CHIPS GRILLED GRILLED PRAWNS

Q1 2013 15% 17% 13% 44% 9% 3%


MEAL TYPE

BEEF DISH VEGETARIAN DISH

ROAST STEAK PIE/PUDDING SALAD CURRY PASTA

Q1 2013 28% 25% 12% 13% 13% 10%







Coffee 52%

Tea 21%

Hot Chocolate 5%


Bottled water 8%



Carbonated Drink – Lemonade 2%

Carbonated Drink – Diet Lemonade 0%

TABLE 3.5 TOP HOT BEVERAGES, SOFT DRINKS AND ALCOHOLIC DRINKS AT LUNCH, Q1 2013

TOP 5 ALCOHOLIC DRINKS Q1 2013

Beer/cider 8%

Wine 7%

Spirit Cocktails 1%



FIGURE 3.4 NUMBER OF DRINKS CONSUMED AT LUNCH, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

18% 59% 18% 5% 20% 60% 15% 5% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

None One Two More than three

Q1 2013

Q12012



FIGURE 3.5 TOP 5 LUNCH DRINK ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)



2%

-1%

1%

0%

0%

5%

7%

6%

8%

21%

7%

6%

7%

8%

21%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Beer/cider

Carbonated Drink-Cola

Bottled water

Tea

Coffee

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points


Food and Beverage Incidence at Dinner (1 of 4)


Chicken dish 24%

Beef dish 16%

Fish dish 11%

Pizza 9%

Other meat dish 7%

TABLE 3.6 TOP 5 FOOD ITEMS AT DINNER, Q1 2013

FIGURE 3.6 TOP 5 DINNER FOOD MEALS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)



0%

-1%

-6%

2%

3%

7%

10%

17%

14%

21%

7%

9%

11%

16%

24%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Other meat dish

Pizza

Fish dish

Beef dish

Chicken dish

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points





TABLE 3.7 TOP CONSUMED MEAL TYPES AT DINNER, Q1 2013

MEAL TYPE

CHICKEN DISH BEEF DISH

CURRY GRILLED BBQ STEAK ROAST CURRY

Q1 2013 25% 10% 7% 40.4% 15% 7%

MEAL TYPE

OTHER MEAT DISH FISH DISH

MIXED TURKEY DUCK FISH & CHIPS GRILLED PRAWNS

PRAWN COCKTAIL

Q1 2013 31% 9% 25% 17% 11% 6%

MEAL TYPE

VEGETARIAN DISH BURGER

CURRY MUSHROOMS ONION BHAJI GOURMET BEEF BIG MAC QUARTER POUNDER

Q1 2013 14% 13% 13% 37% 13% 11%







Coffee 13%

Tea 5%

Hot Chocolate 1%




Bottled water 8%

Carbonated Drink – Other 4%

Fruit juice/Smoothie 4%

TABLE 3.8 TOP HOT BEVERAGES, SOFT DRINKS AND ALCOHOLIC DRINKS AT DINNER, Q1 2013

TOP 5 ALCOHOLIC DRINKS Q1 2013

Wine 29%

Beer/Cider 22%

Spirit Cocktails 4%



FIGURE 3.8 TOP 5 DINNER DRINK ITEMS CONSUMED OUT OF HOME, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (Multiple responses)

7% 58% 22% 7% 4% 2% 12% 36% 31% 13% 5% 3% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

None One Two Three Four More than Five

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

FIGURE 3.7 NUMBER OF DRINKS CONSUMED AT DINNER Q1 2012-Q1 2013



29% 22% 13% 10% 9% 23% 17% 12% 11% 17% 6% 5% 1%

-1% -8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Wine Beer/cider Coffee Tap water Carbonated Drink - Diet Cola

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

Change YoY % Points




Snacking Consumption

FIGURE 3.9 SNACKING TIME OF DAY, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 What time of day did you purchase a snack?

FIGURE 3.10 TOP 5 ESTABLISHMENTS TO PURCHASE A SNACK, Q1 2013 Where did you purchase a snack?

TABLE 3.9 TOP SNACKING FOOD AND DRINK ITEMS, Q1 2013 What snack did you personally consume?

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS – SNACKING

TOP FOOD ITEMS Q1 2013 %

Chocolate 10.3%

Crisps 9.1%

Bread Item 8.1%

Cake 6.5%

Bacon roll/Sandwich 5.2%

TOP HOT BEVERAGES Q1 2013 %

Coffee 32.3%

Tea 6.9%

Hot Chocolate 3.9%

28% 53% 19% 31% 53% 16% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Morning Afternoon Evening

Q1 2013 Q1 2012

5.1%

5.4%

6.4%

8.5%

9.7%

0% 5% 10%

Starbucks

Leisure Facilities

Tesco (off the shelf)

Independent café/bakery

Costa Coffee


TOP SOFT DRINKS Q1 2013%

Water 5.8%

Carbonated Drink – Cola 3.7%

Carbonated Drink – Diet Cola 3.6%

Juice Drink/Flavoured Water 2.9%

Fruit Juice 2.8%


Snacking Average Spend


FIGURE 3.11 SNACKS AVERAGE SPEND, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

FIGURE 3.12 AVERAGE SPEND BY CHANNEL, Q1 2013

£3.07 £3.22 £3.36 £3.33 £3.65

£0.00

£1.00

£2.00

£3.00

£4.00

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013

*Note: Q1 2012 data not available by channel Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

£2.02 £3.04 £3.75 £4.23 £4.98 £6.34 £6.57 £6.58 £0.00

£1.00

£2.00

£3.00

£4.00

£5.00

£6.00

£7.00

Workplace Sandwich Retailer

Coffee shop/Café

Fast Food Outlet Hotel Branded Restaurant

Chain

Local Independent

Restaurant

Pub Restaurant


Snacking by Day-Part


Mid-Morning Mid-Afternoon Late Evening

AVERAGE SPEND £3.13 £3.55 £3.61

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MEALS 1.8 1.6 0.7

AVERAGE NUMBER OF ITEMS 1.9 2.1 2.3

Brands Popularity % Brands Popularity % Brands Popularity %

TOP 5 ESTABLISHMENT VISITED

Costa Coffee 15% Costa Coffee 10% Local pub 10%

Independent café/sandwich shop/bakery

14% Independent café/sandwich shop/bakery

8% Tesco (off the shelf)

8%


7% Leisure Facilities 6% Independent restaurant

7%

Caffè Nero 7% Starbucks 5% McDonald’s 7%

Starbucks 6% Tesco (off the shelf)

5% Sainsbury's (off the shelf)

5%

Items Popularity % Items Popularity % Items Popularity %

TOP 3 FOOD ITEMS CONSUMED

Bread Item* 9% Chocolate 12% Crisps 11%

Chocolate 8% Crisps 10% Chocolate 10%

Bacon roll/Sandwich

6% Bread Item* 8% Chips 9%

TOP 3 DRINKS ITEMS CONSUMED

Coffee 52% Coffee 35% Alcohol 18%

Tea 8% Tea 8% Coffee 17%

Hot Chocolate 6% Water 7% Carbonated Drink – Cola

7%

*Note: Bread item includes sandwich, bagel, baguette, etc. Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

TABLE 3.10 SNACKING SUMMARY BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013



Brand Awareness – Annual Comparison

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS – ANNUAL COMPARISON

FIGURE 3.13 TOP 10 ESTABLISHMENTS VISITED, YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

11%

13%

16%

14%

15%

15%

19%

20%

30%

29%

11%

13%

14%

14%

15%

15%

20%

22%

23%

23%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

BURGER KING

JD WETHERSPOON

INDEPENDENT CAFÉ/SANDWICH SHOP

INDEPENDENT INDIAN RESTAURANT

INDEPENDENT CHINESE RESTAURANT

KFC

GREGGS

LOCAL PUB

McDONALD’S

COSTA COFFEE

% Q1 2013 % Q1 2012



Reasons for Eating Out at Breakfast – Habitual vs. Social Eating Out

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS – PRIMARY REASONS FOR EATING OUT

TABLE 3.11 PRIMARY REASONS FOR EATING OUT AT BREAKFAST – HABITUAL VS. SOCIAL EATING OUT Which of the following best describes the primary reason for eating out of the home on this occasion?

CHANNEL HABITUAL SOCIAL

Fine Dining Restaurant 0% 100%

Branded Restaurant Chain 14% 85%

Hotel 17% 81%

Facilities where eating was not the primary reason for being there

21% 79%

Pub Restaurant 26% 72%

Vending Machine 33% 67%

Local Independent Restaurant 43% 55%

Fast Food Outlet 49% 50%

Department Store/Supermarket Cafe 50% 49%

Coffee shop/Cafe 51% 48%

Sandwich Retailer 61% 39%

Workplace 65% 32%



Brand Awareness and Key Influences at Breakfast – Year-on-Year

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS – BRAND AWARENESS AND KEY INFLUENCES

FIGURE 3.14 TOP 10 ESTABLISHMENTS VISITED AT BREAKFAST, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Which establishments have you visited to buy food that was consumed out of the home within the last month?

FIGURE 3.15 TOP 10 INFLUENCES AT BREAKFAST, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Why did you choose the eating out establishment? (Multiple responses)

16.7%

20.1%

22.5%

23.9%

22.7%

26.0%

24.2%

27.3%

30.8%

40.9%

15.7%

17.3%

19.1%

22.6%

22.6%

23.0%

23.9%

24.4%

26.5%

41.8%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Beverage quality/taste (e.g. coffee)

Convenient location-close to home

Fast service

Convenient location-close to work

Good value for food & drinks

Friendly Service

Convenient location-other

Cheap/inexpensive prices

Food quality/taste

Been there before/previous experience

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

2.5%

4.0%

3.4%

4.7%

6.9%

5.8%

4.7%

7.0%

12.2%

14.5%

2.6%

3.2%

3.7%

3.9%

4.5%

5.9%

6.4%

6.8%

10.9%

12.0%

0% 10% 20%

Morrisons Café

Starbucks

JD Wetherspoon

Other independent restaurant, kiosks

Workplace (Office)-Canteen/Café

Costa Coffee

Greggs

Hotel

McDonald's


Q1 2013

Q1 2012



Primary Reasons for Eating Out at Lunch – Habitual vs. Social Eating Out


TABLE 3.12 PRIMARY REASONS FOR EATING OUT AT LUNCH – HABITUAL VS. SOCIAL EATING OUT Which of the following best describes the primary reason for eating out of the home on this occasion?




8% 90%

Hotel 11% 88%








Workplace 74% 25%

Vending Machine 86% 14%



Brand Awareness and Key Influences at Lunch – Year-on-Year


FIGURE 3.16 TOP 10 ESTABLISHMENTS VISITED AT LUNCH, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Which establishments have you visited to buy food that was consumed out of the home within the last month?

FIGURE 3.17 TOP 10 INFLUENCES AT LUNCH, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Why did you choose the eating out establishment? (Multiple responses)

2.2%

2.7%

2.8%

4.0%

6.7%

4.6%

5.4%

7.4%

5.7%

10.2%

2.7%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

4.7%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%

7.4%

9.4%

0% 5% 10% 15%

JD Wetherspoon

Subway

Costa Coffee


Workplace (Office)-Canteen/Café

Greggs

McDonald's

Other independent restaurant, kiosks

Local pub


Q1 2013

Q1 2012

16.7%

20.1%

22.5%

23.9%

22.7%

26.0%

24.2%

27.3%

30.8%

40.9%

15.7%

17.3%

19.1%

22.6%

22.6%

23.0%

23.9%

24.4%

26.5%

41.8%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Beverage quality/taste (e.g. coffee)


Fast service

Convenient location-close to work


Friendly Service



Food quality/taste


Q1 2013

Q1 2012



Primary Reasons for Eating Out at Dinner – Habitual vs. Social Eating Out


TABLE 3.13 PRIMARY REASONS FOR EATING OUT AT DINNER – HABITUAL VS. SOCIAL EATING OUT Which of the following best describes the primary reason for eating out of the home on this occasion?




7% 93%




Hotel 14% 85%





Workplace 57% 43%



Brand Awareness and Key Influences at Dinner – Year-on-Year


FIGURE 3.18 TOP 10 ESTABLISHMENTS VISITED AT DINNER, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Which establishments have you visited to buy food that was consumed out of the home within the last month?

FIGURE 3.19 TOP 10 INFLUENCES AT DINNER, Q1 2012-Q1 2013 Why did you choose the eating out establishment? (Multiple responses)

2.8%

2.3%

3.5%

N/A

4.4%

3.1%

8.0%

9.0%

9.3%

10.0%

2.6%

2.8%

2.9%

3.3%

4.4%

4.4%

7.8%

9.0%

9.0%

10.3%

0% 5% 10% 15%

McDonalds

Nando’s

Hotel

Fine Dining Restaurant

Independent Italian/Pizza

Independent kebab/fast-food shop

Independent Chinese restaurant

Independent Indian restaurant

Other independent restaurant, kiosk

Local pub

Q1 2013

Q1 2012

10.7%

18.4%

17.7%

17.4%

18.7%

23.8%

29.2%

32.8%

49.2%

47.8%

13.3%

15.0%

15.2%

15.8%

17.4%

23.9%

26.4%

27.9%

41.9%

47.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Recommendations by friends/relatives

Nice environment/pleasant atmosphere


Cuisine type (e.g. Chinese, Thai, Italian, Frenchetc.)



Friendly service


Food quality/taste


Q1 2013

Q1 2012


Contents





2. Trends Dashboard


Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops






9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go


*Note: Q1 2012 data not available by channel and by day-part Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

TABLE 1.1 OUT OF HOME CONSUMPTION, AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY BY CHANNEL AT BREAKFAST/LUNCH/DINNER, Q1 2013* How often do you purchase and consume food out of the home in an average week?

Average Visit Frequency by Channel by Day-Part (1 of 2)

CHANNEL OVERVIEW – AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY

Consumers who ate breakfast out of home on last visit

Hotel Pub

Restaurant

Local Independent Restaurant

Department Store

Coffee shop/Café

Fast Food

Outlet

Sandwich Retailer

Workplace

Four or more times per week 3% 3% 8% 5% 7% 7% 8% 6%

Two to three times per week 23% 30% 27% 28% 34% 27% 26% 20%

Once per week 31% 36% 28% 28% 30% 34% 29% 28%

Once per fortnight 21% 15% 21% 20% 17% 16% 17% 21%

Once per month 17% 10% 11% 13% 8% 12% 13% 17%

Less than once per month 6% 6% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5%

Rarely 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Consumers who ate lunch out of home on last visit

Hotel Pub

Restaurant


Department Store

Coffee shop/Café

Fast Food Outlet

Sandwich Retailer

Workplace Branded

Restaurant Chain

Four or more times per week 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 12% 7%

Two to three times per week 22% 23% 29% 26% 24% 23% 20% 19% 26%

Once per week 29% 32% 29% 33% 30% 27% 29% 24% 34%

Once per fortnight 28% 23% 19% 18% 21% 20% 18% 19% 19%

Once per month 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 16% 18% 18% 10%

Less than once per month 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 4% 4%

Rarely 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 1%



TABLE 1.2 OUT OF HOME CONSUMPTION, AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY BY CHANNEL AT BREAKFAST/LUNCH/DINNER, Q1 2013* How often do you purchase and consume food out of the home in an average week?

Average Visit Frequency by Channel by Day-Part (2 of 2)

CHANNEL OVERVIEW – AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY

Consumers who ate dinner out of home on last visit

Hotel Pub

Restaurant


Department Store

Fast Food Outlet

Sandwich Retailer

Branded Restaurant

Chain


Four or more times per week 1% 4% 4% 10% 6% 8% 5% 6%

Two to three times per week 20% 22% 25% 28% 24% 24% 25% 20%

Once per week 32% 34% 30% 30% 31% 33% 29% 33%

Once per fortnight 23% 20% 20% 24% 17% 13% 22% 26%

Once per month 16% 14% 15% 5% 13% 12% 13% 10%

Less than once per month 6% 5% 5% 2% 6% 6% 4% 4%

Rarely 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% 0%


Average Spend by Channel


CHANNEL OVERVIEW – AVERAGE SPEND

TABLE 1.3 AVERAGE SPEND BY DAY PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013


Channels Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012

Pub Restaurant £5.57 £5.10 £11.11 £10.93 £16.22 £16.21

Coffee Shop/Café £4.97 £4.78 £6.25 £5.90 £12.48 n/a

Fast Food Outlet £4.26 £4.30 £5.57 £5.74 £8.04 £8.83

Local Independent £5.33 £5.21 £11.07 £10.90 £20.86 £22.36

Sandwich Retailer £3.38 £3.68 £3.99 £3.89 £8.18 n/a

Branded Restaurant Chain £6.88 £6.21 £13.43 £12.98 £20.00 £20.13

Department Store/Supermarket Café £4.94 £4.84 £6.00 £5.75 £9.99 £8.32

Workplace £2.24 £2.46 £3.50 £3.20 £7.50 n/a

Hotel £7.78 £6.99 £12.88 £14.12 £27.27 £28.85

Fine Dining Restaurant n/a n/a £20.72 £21.08 £43.50 £41.52

TOTAL £4.65 £4.59 £7.47 £7.12 £18.33 £18.60

Q1 2013 Spend Snapshot

Average Spend Breakfast £4.65 Lunch £7.47 Dinner £18.33

Winners At Breakfast: Hotels: +£0.79 At Lunch: Hotels: +£0.45 At Dinner: Fine Dining Restaurant: +£1.98

Losers At Breakfast: Sandwich Retailers: -£0.30 At Lunch: Hotels: -£1.24 At Dinner: Hotels: -£1.58


Average Number of Meals by Channel


CHANNEL OVERVIEW – AVERAGE NUMBER OF MEALS

TABLE 1.4 AVERAGE NUMBER OF MEALS BY DAY PART, Q1 2012-Q1 2013


Channels Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012

Pub Restaurant 0.12 0.12 0.67 0.67 0.65 0.69

Coffee Shop/Café 0.45 0.48 0.63 0.64 n/a n/a

Fast Food Outlet 0.23 0.31 0.46 0.50 0.29 0.34

Local Independent 0.08 0.10 0.32 0.36 0.76 0.74

Sandwich Retailer 0.36 0.37 0.92 1.03 n/a n/a

Branded Restaurant Chain 0.04 0.06 0.35 0.37 0.45 0.50

Department Store/Supermarket Café 0.17 0.20 0.26 0.27 n/a n/a

Workplace 0.13 0.12 0.29 0.25 n/a n/a

Hotel n/a n/a 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.11

Fine Dining Restaurant n/a 0.11 0.04 n/a 0.08 n/a

TOTAL 1.73 1.56 4.02 4.36 2.47 2.61

Q1 2013 Number of Meals Snapshot

Number of Meals Breakfast 1.73 Lunch 4.02 Dinner 2.47

Winners At Breakfast: Workplace: +0.01 At Lunch: Workplace +0.04

Losers At Breakfast: Fast Food Outlets: -0.08 At Lunch: Sandwich Retailers: -0.11 At Dinner: Branded Restaurant Chains: -0.05


Recommendation and Revisit Rankings – Breakfast

*NPS – Net Promoter Score is taken from consumers ranking the likelihood of recommending from 0-10. Scores of 7,8 are removed, the detractor score (ranked 0-6) is subtracted from the promoter score 9+10 ** Revisit – Consumers are asked “How likely are you to revisit on a scale of 1-10, where 1 = not at all likely and 10 = extremely likely) Note: Ranking inclusion based on minimum qualifying sample size of 100 Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013

CHANNEL OVERVIEW – RECOMMENDATION AND REVISIT RANKINGS

TABLE 1.5 RECOMMENDATION AND REVISIT SCORE – BREAKFAST, Q1 2013

BRAND RECOMMENDATION

(NPS)* CHANGE Q1 2012-

Q1 2013

JD Wetherspoon 65 +17

Caffè Nero 56 +13


55 +8

Subway 52 N/A

Pret A Manger 51 N/A

Costa Coffee 50 +12

Morrisons Café 37 +3

Greggs 30 +2

Starbucks 27 -5

McDonald’s 19 +6

BRAND REVISIT

INTENTION** CHANGE Q1 2012-

Q1 2013

JD Wetherspoon 9.40 +0.03

Workplace (Office) –Canteen/Café

9.37 +0.04

Pret A Manger 9.35 N/A

Costa Coffee 9.35 +0.09

Caffè Nero 9.13 -0.11


9.05 -0.13

Starbucks 8.86 -0.33

McDonald’s 8.84 -0.10

Subway 8.83 N/A

Workplace (Industrial) – Canteen/Café

8.80 N/A


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Breakfast (1 of 2)


CHANNEL OVERVIEW – ESTABLISHMENT KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

TABLE 1.6 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – BREAKFAST, Q1 2013

RANK Convenient

location Atmosphere/environment

Value for money Low prices Speed of service

Friendly service

Food quality/taste

1 Workplace (Office) –

Canteen/Café Caffè Nero JD Wetherspoon JD Wetherspoon JD Wetherspoon



2 Pret A Manger Independent café/bakery

Morrisons Café Morrisons Café Pret A Manger Caffè Nero Caffè Nero

3 Caffè Nero JD

Wetherspoon Subway Subway Subway JD Wetherspoon Pret A Manger

4 JD Wetherspoon Costa Coffee Independent café/bakery

Greggs Independent café/bakery

Pret A Manger JD Wetherspoon

5 Independent café/bakery

Hotel Greggs Workplace

(Industrial) –Canteen/Café

Caffè Nero Costa Coffee Subway

6 Costa Coffee Subway Workplace


Workplace (Industrial) –

Canteen/Café Greggs Subway Costa Coffee

7 McDonald’s Starbucks McDonald’s McDonald’s McDonald’s Workplace


Morrisons Café

8 Workplace


Pret A Manger Workplace



Costa Coffee Hotel Greggs

9 Hotel Greggs Caffè Nero Caffè Nero Hotel Morrisons Café Starbucks

10 Greggs Morrisons Café Costa Coffee Hotel Workplace


Greggs Hotel


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Breakfast (2 of 2)



TABLE 1.7 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – BREAKFAST, Q1 2013

RANK Freshness Menu choice Cleanliness Ethical

practices/products Family friendly

Drink quality/taste

Overall experience


JD Wetherspoon


Pret A Manger JD Wetherspoon Caffè Nero Independent café/bakery

2 Pret A Manger Morrisons Café Hotel JD Wetherspoon Morrisons Café JD Wetherspoon JD Wetherspoon

3 Caffè Nero Independent café/bakery

JD Wetherspoon

Morrisons Café McDonald’s Costa Coffee Caffè Nero

4 JD Wetherspoon Subway Pret A

Manger Independent café/bakery



Pret A Manger

5 Greggs Hotel Greggs Subway Subway Pret A Manger Morrisons Café

6 Costa Coffee Pret A Manger Subway Greggs Caffè Nero Morrisons Café Costa Coffee

7 Morrisons Café Greggs Morrisons

Café Costa Coffee Greggs Greggs Subway

8 Subway McDonald’s Caffè Nero Caffè Nero Costa Coffee Subway Greggs

9 Hotel Caffè Nero Workplace


Hotel Hotel Starbucks Hotel

10 Workplace


Costa Coffee Costa Coffee Workplace (Industrial)

– Canteen/Café Starbucks McDonald’s McDonald’s


Recommendation and Revisit Rankings – Lunch



TABLE 1.8 RECOMMENDATION AND REVISIT SCORE – LUNCH, Q1 2013



Q1 2013

Starbucks 71 +39

JD Wetherspoon 48 -3

Independent Chinese

48 -4


47 +6

Independent kebab/fish&chips shop

47 +30

Nando’s 46 +1

Costa Coffee 46 +1

Local pub 45 -3

M&S Café 43 -10

Pret A Manger 43 +1

BRAND REVISIT


Q1 2013

Costa Coffee 9.28 -0.13

Pret A Manger 9.18 -0.09

M&S (off the shelf) 9.17 -0.34


9.16 N/A

Asda (off the shelf) 9.15 +0.18

Workplace (Office) – Canteen/Café

9.15 -0.15

JD Wetherspoon 9.08 -0.13

Tesco (off the shelf) 9.08 -0.06

Starbucks 9.07 -0.20

M&S Café 9.03 +0.02


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Lunch (1 of 2)



TABLE 1.9 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – LUNCH, Q1 2013

RANK Convenient


Value for money

Low prices Speed of service

Friendly service Food

quality/taste

1 Workplace



JD Wetherspoon

JD Wetherspoon Independent

Chinese Fine Dining Restaurant


2 Pret A Manger Independent Italian/Pizza

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop Asda (off the shelf)

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop Pret A Manger Pret A Manger

3 Leisure Facilities Local pub Independent

Chinese Morrisons Café Pret A Manger M&S Café M&S Café

4 M&S Café Leisure Facilities Morrisons Café Independent

Chinese Greggs

Independent kebab/fish&chips

shop



Nando’s Greggs Greggs Fine Dining Restaurant



6 Independent

kebab/fish&chips shop




shop Subway


Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop

7 M&S (off the

shelf) Starbucks Local pub Boots


Nando’s M&S (off the

shelf)

8 Starbucks Pret A Manger Asda (off the

shelf) Tesco (off the

shelf) McDonald’s

M&S (off the shelf)

Garden Centre

9 Independent

Chinese M&S Café


Subway Independent Italian/Pizza

Independent Chinese

Subway

10 Costa Coffee Costa Coffee Boots McDonald’s Garden Centre Subway Local pub


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Lunch (2 of 2)



TABLE 1.10 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – LUNCH, Q1 2013


practices/ products

Family friendly Drink

quality/taste Overall

experience

1 Fine Dining Restaurant




Independent Chinese



2 Pret A Manger Independent

Chinese Independent Italian/Pizza

Pret A Manger Morrisons Café M&S Café Independent

café/sandwich shop/bakery

3 M&S Café Independent Italian/Pizza

M&S (off the shelf)


Independent kebab/fish&chip

s shop



4 Independent Italian/Pizza

Nando’s Independent

Chinese M&S (off the

shelf) McDonald’s Costa Coffee

Independent Chinese

5 Independent



s shop




Local pub Independent


6 Independent


JD Wetherspoon Pret A Manger Garden Centre Garden Centre Leisure Facilities Local pub

7 M&S (off the

shelf) Subway Leisure Facilities M&S Café


Pret A Manger M&S Café

8 Garden Centre M&S (off the

shelf)


s shop Nando’s JD Wetherspoon


Garden Centre

9 Subway Independent


Local pub Morrisons Café Local pub JD Wetherspoon Pret A Manger

10 Local pub Local pub Garden Centre Independent

Chinese KFC

Independent Chinese

Leisure Facilities


Recommendation and Revisit Rankings – Dinner



TABLE 1.11 RECOMMENDATION AND REVISIT SCORE – DINNER, Q1 2013



Q1 2013


60 N/A

Toby Carvery 57 +5

Independent Chinese

55 +7

Independent Indian 53 +5

JD Wetherspoon 48 +9

Local pub 46 -2


44 +5

PizzaExpress 38 -3

Nando’s 37 -6

Independent kebab/fish&chips shop

36 +1

BRAND REVISIT


Q1 2013

JD Wetherspoon 9.14 +0.00

Toby Carvery 9.02 -0.18

Independent Chinese

9.00 +0.01

PizzaExpress 8.93 -0.23

Independent Indian 8.92 -0.02

Independent kebab/fast-food shop/fish&chips shop

8.84 +0.14

McDonald's 8.68 +0.02

Local pub 8.66 -0.29

Nando’s 8.61 -0.38


8.60 +0.01


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Dinner (1 of 2)



TABLE 1.12 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – DINNER, Q1 2013

RANK Convenient


Value for money

Low prices Speed of service Friendly service

Food quality/taste

1

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop


Toby Carvery JD Wetherspoon Independent

Chinese Fine Dining Restaurant


2 Independent

Chinese Local pub

JD Wetherspoon

Toby Carvery Toby Carvery Local pub Independent

Indian

3 Hotel Independent Italian/Pizza

Local pub McDonald's JD Wetherspoon Independent

Indian Independent

Chinese

4 Local pub Hotel Independent

Chinese Harvester


shop


Toby Carvery

5 PizzaExpress Toby Carvery Independent

Indian


shop McDonald's

Independent Chinese


6 Independent

Indian Independent

Indian Harvester Brewers Fayre Independent Indian Toby Carvery Local pub


JD Wetherspoon


Nando’s Pizza Hut Hotel Nando’s

8 McDonald's Independent

Chinese t McDonald's

Independent Chinese

Local pub JD Wetherspoon PizzaExpress

9 JD Wetherspoon PizzaExpress Independent


Independent Indian


Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop Hotel

10 Toby Carvery Nando’s Fine Dining Restaurant

Local pub Independent Italian/Pizza

PizzaExpress Independent

kebab/ fish&chips shop


Establishment Key Performance Indicators – Dinner (2 of 2)



TABLE 1.13 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – TOP 10 RANKING BY ESTABLISHMENTS – DINNER, Q1 2013


practices/products Family

friendly Drink

quality/taste Overall

experience

1 Fine Dining Restaurant

Independent Chinese



Toby Carvery Fine Dining Restaurant



Independent Indian

Hotel Toby Carvery Harvester JD Wetherspoon Independent

Chinese

3 Independent

Indian Fine Dining Restaurant


Independent Indian Brewers Fayre Local pub Independent

Indian

4 Independent

Chinese Independent Italian/Pizza

Independent Indian

Nando’s KFC Toby Carvery Independent Italian/Pizza

5 Hotel PizzaExpress Brewers Fayre Local pub PizzaExpress Independent Italian/Pizza

Toby Carvery

6 Toby Carvery JD

Wetherspoon Independent

Chinese Hotel Nando’s Hotel Local pub

7 Local pub Local pub Local pub Independent Chinese Pizza Hut Harvester Hotel

8 PizzaExpress Pizza Hut Toby Carvery Independent Italian/Pizza

Independent Chinese

Independent Chinese

PizzaExpress

9 Nando’s

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop

PizzaExpress PizzaExpress McDonald's Independent

Indian restaurant

JD Wetherspoon

10

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop Toby Carvery Nando’s Harvester

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop PizzaExpress

Independent kebab/

fish&chips shop


Channel Dynamics


CHANNEL OVERVIEW – CHANNEL DYNAMICS

TABLE 1.14 CHANNEL DYNAMICS – Q1 2013

CHANNEL VALUE PERFORMANCE

COMMENTS Q1 2013 YOY

2013 Forecast

Pub Restaurant Sales and volume growth in Q1 2013. Pubs with a focus on quality food and good value for money and/or low prices are attracting consumers at the expense of other channels.

Coffee Shop/Café

Total sales flat and volume down in Q1 2013. Fall driven by lunch volume decline, balanced by breakfast growth. Average spend increased for all day-parts driven by consumer spend increases. Weak independents struggle in this sector, while quality outlets and chains out-perform the market.

Fast Food Outlet Sales down and volume flat in Q1. Decline in lunch has impacted fast food sales this quarter. Low prices will drive increased sales as consumers face decreased disposable income and higher inflationary costs during the rest of 2013.

Local Independent Sales and volume down Q1 2013. Independents are struggling with intense competition from pubs and the branded restaurant sector.

Sandwich Retailer Sales and volume decline for Q1 2013. Sandwich retailers, especially independents have suffered from the decline in lunchtime frequency and increased competition for this day-part.

Branded Restaurant Chain

Sales and volume in decline in Q1 2013. Performance was relatively stable throughout 2012 as branded chains benefitted from independents’ decline. Increasing competition from pubs will prove challenging. Within the sector, fast casual is expected to grow.

Department Store/Supermarket Café

Sales and volume growth in Q1 2013. Department store and supermarket cafés benefit from the halo effect of in-store footfall, especially in poor weather. Increased focus from this sector on improving quality and offer will contribute to growth.

Workplace Sales up and volume down in Q1 2013. Increased prices contributed to sales growth. Workplace is dependent on employment and economic background and the outlook is uncertain as both breakfast and lunch volumes decline in favour of other channels.

Hotel Sales in decline despite volume increase in Q1 2013. Budget sector planned growth by key groups will encourage marginal growth in 2013 and staycation buoyancy.


Contents





2. Trends Dashboard


Channel Top Line

1. Channel Overview

2. Pub Restaurants

3. Coffee Shops




7. Department Stores/Supermarket Cafes


9. Workplace

10. Food-on-the-Go

Page 120

Allegra Strategies, Eating Out Panel Q1 2013, May 2013© Page 121

Hotels and Fine Dining – Q1 2013 At A Glance

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – Q1 2013 AT A GLANCE

Total Market Q1 2013

Hotels Fine Dining

OOH Sales Value £ £447.3m £590.0m

YoY Growth % -21% N/A*

Market Share % 3% 4%

OOH Volume 30.3m 16.7m

YoY Growth % -11% N/A*

Market Share % 2% 1%

YTD Market Value / Volume (Q2 2012 – Q1 2013) £1.88bn / 128.6m £2.25bn / 66.1m

Day Part Q1 2013 Breakfast Lunch Dinner

Hotels Fine Dining Hotels Fine Dining Hotels Fine Dining

Average Spend £7.78 N/A £12.88 £20.72 £27.27 £43.60

Party Size 2.69 N/A 3.42 3.14 3.57 3.44

*Note: Fine Dining not included in Q1 2012; Market value and volume sizing, based on consumer stated average spend (inc VAT); Source: Allegra Strategies Research and Analysis, 2013



Average Spend

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – AVERAGE SPEND

TABLE 8.1 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON BY OCCASION IN HOTELS, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

OCCASION Q1 2013 Q1 2012 ANNUAL

GROWTH %

BREAKFAST £7.78 £6.99 10%

LUNCH £12.88 £14.12 -10%

DINNER £27.27 £28.85 -6%

Q1 2013 Hotel Spend Snapshot Breakfast +10%; Lunch -10%; Dinner -6%

FIGURE 8.1 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON BY OCCASION,

HOTEL VS. TOTAL EATING OUT AVERAGE SPEND, Q1 2013

£7

.78

£1

2.8

8

£2

7.2

7

£4

.65

£7

.47

£1

8.3

3

£0.00

£5.00

£10.00

£15.00

£20.00

£25.00

£30.00

BREAKFAST LUNCH DINNER

Hotel Total

TABLE 8.2 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON BY OCCASION IN FINE DINING RESTAURANTS, Q1 2012-Q1 2013

OCCASION Q1 2013 Q1 2012* ANNUAL

GROWTH %

LUNCH £20.72 N/A N/A

DINNER £43.60 N/A N/A

FIGURE 8.2 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON BY OCCASION, FINE DINING RESTAURANT VS. TOTAL EATING OUT AVERAGE SPEND, Q1 2013

*Note: Fine Dining information for 2012 is not available

£2

0.7

2

£4

3.5

0

£4

.65

£7

.47

£0.00

£10.00

£20.00

£30.00

£40.00

£50.00

LUNCH DINNER

Fine Dining Total



FIGURE 8.3 HOTELS AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013* How often do you purchase and consume food out of the home in an average week as a breakfast/lunch/dinner?



HOTELS /FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY

3% 3% 1%

23% 22%20%

31% 29% 32%

21% 28%23%

17% 12%16%

6% 4% 6%1% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Rarely


Once per month

Once per fortnight

Once per week





FIGURE 8.4 FINE DINING RESTAURANTS AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013* How often do you purchase and consume food out of the home in an average week as a lunch/dinner?



HOTELS /FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – AVERAGE VISIT FREQUENCY

8% 6%

36%

20%

24%

33%

17%26%

13% 10%2% 4%

0% 0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lunch Dinner

Rarely


Once per month

Once per fortnight

Once per week




Group Composition – Hotels

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS– GROUP COMPOSITION



BREAKFAST Q1

2013 Q1

2012 YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 19% 19% 0%


More than two adults 20% 20% 0%

With children 9% 8% +1%

LUNCH Q1

2013 Q1

2012 YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 8% 5% +3%


More than two adults 34% 43% -9%

With children 11% 8% +3%

DINNER Q1

2013 Q1

2012 YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 10% 11% -1%


More than two adults 29% 34% -5%

With children 8% 11% -3%


Group Composition – Fine Dining Restaurants

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – GROUP COMPOSITION



LUNCH Q1

2013 Q1

2012 YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 4% N/A N/A

Two adults 53% N/A N/A

More than two adults 36% N/A N/A

With children 8% N/A N/A

DINNER Q1

2013 Q1

2012 YoY Change

% Points

Single adult 2% N/A N/A

Two adults 53% N/A N/A

More than two adults 38% N/A N/A

With children 7% N/A N/A



Food and Beverage Incidence by Day-Part

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – FOOD AND BEVERAGE INCIDENCE

BREAKFAST

FOOD ITEMS POPULARITY % DRINK ITEMS POPULARITY %

Traditional Cooked Breakfast 53% Hot drinks 98%

Toast 47% Soft drinks 78%

Eggs (scrambled eggs, omelette, eggs benedict, etc.) 42% Alcohol N/A

Fruit (fresh or dried) 38%

Cereal (including porridge) 35%

LUNCH


Fish dish 16% Hot drinks 47%

Soup 16% Soft drinks 65%

Cold dessert (e.g. Icecream, cheesecake, etc.) 13% Alcohol 36%

Sandwich 12%

Beef dish 11%

DINNER


Beef dish 23% Hot drinks 25%

Fish dish 21% Soft drinks 45%

Chicken dish 14% Alcohol 90%

Vegetarian dish 9%

Lamb dish 8%

TABLE 8.5 MOST POPULAR FOOD AND BEVERAGE ITEMS CONSUMED AT HOTELS BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013



Food and Beverage Incidence by Day-Part

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – FOOD AND BEVERAGE INCIDENCE

LUNCH


Fish dish 21% Hot drinks 34%

Beef dish 20% Soft drinks 68%

Other meat dish 19% Alcohol 73%

Cold dessert (e.g. Icecream, cheesecake, etc.) 18%

Seafood dish 15%

DINNER


Beef dish 23% Hot drinks 27%

Fish dish 20% Soft drinks 60%

Other meat dish 14% Alcohol 97%

Lamb dish 14%

Chicken dish 8%

TABLE 8.6 MOST POPULAR FOOD AND BEVERAGE ITEMS CONSUMED AT FINE DINING RESTAURANTS BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013



Key Influences – Hotels Vs. Total

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – KEY INFLUENCES

Dinner Convenient location –

other

Food quality/taste

Been there before/ previous

experience

Chosen by

someone else...

Friendly service

Nice environ-ment

Good value for food &

drinks

Voucher/promotion/special

offer

Convenient location - close to

work

Convenient location –close to

home

Food sourced locally

Hotel 32% 29% 26% 18% 17% 16% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7%

Total 17% 42% 47% 13% 12% 15% 24% 9% 4% 28% 3%

Lunch

Been there before/prev

ious experience

Food quality/

taste

Convenient location –

other

Nice environ-

ment

Friendly service

Convenient location –close to home

Not part of a

national chain

Chosen by someone

else...


Convenient location –close to

work

Hotel 38% 31% 30% 25% 19% 16% 16% 16% 12% 11%

Total 44% 33% 25% 11% 21% 14% 4% 8% 24% 22%

Break fast

Convenient location – other


experience

Convenient location – close to

work

Food quality/

taste


Nice environ-

ment

Friendly Service

Chosen by someone

else...

Additional facilities

Voucher/promotion/

special offer

Hotel 55% 16% 13% 12% 10% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6%

Total 24% 42% 23% 27% 23% 9% 23% 4% 5% 3%

TABLE 8.7 TOP 10 INFLUENCES AT BREAKFAST/LUNCH/DINNER, HOTEL VS. TOTAL EATING OUT, Q1 2013 Why did you choose the eating out establishment? (Multiple responses)



Key Influences – Fine Dining Restaurant Vs. Total

TABLE 8.8 TOP 10 INFLUENCES AT DINNER, FINE DINING RESTAURANT VS. TOTAL EATING OUT, Q1 2013 Why did you choose the eating out establishment? (Multiple responses)

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – KEY INFLUENCES

Dinner Food

quality/ taste


experience

Nice environ-

ment

Friendly service

Chosen by someone

else

Not part of a national

chain

Cuisine type (e.g.

Chinese, Thai, etc.)


Try something

new

Good review in

newspaper/magazine


65% 48% 30% 25% 22% 21% 21% 19% 15% 13%

Total 42% 47% 15% 26% 13% 7% 16% 3% 6% 3%

Lunch Food

quality/ taste


experience

Nice environ -

ment

Friendly service

Convenient location -

other

Good value for food &

drinks

Cuisine type (e.g.

Chinese, Thai, etc>)

Voucher/ promotion/ special offer

Chosen by someone

else



66% 42% 39% 24% 20% 19% 16% 14% 13% 12%

Total 33% 44% 11% 21% 25% 23% 4% 5% 7% 3%


FIGURE 8.5 HOTELS HABITUAL VS. SOCIAL EATING OUT BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013 Which of the following best describes the primary reason for eating out of the home on this occasion?


Page 131

Reasons for Eating Out – Habitual Vs. Social Eating Out

HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – PRIMARY REASONS FOR EATING OUT

17% 11% 14% 81% 88% 85% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Habitual Social

FIGURE 8.6 FINE DINING RESTAURANTS HABITUAL VS. SOCIAL EATING OUT BY DAY-PART, Q1 2013 Which of the following best describes the primary reason for eating out of the home on this occasion?



6% 3% 94% 96% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lunch Dinner

Habitual Social


Hotels Consumer Demographic Profile

TABLE 8.9 SEGMENTATION BY AGE, Q1 2013

TABLE 8.10 SEGMENTATION BY GENDER, Q1 2013


HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – CONSUMER DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

Occasion Under

18 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Breakfast 1% % 2% 8% 6% 10% 14% 15% 14% 15% 11% 5%

Lunch 0% 1% 5% 3% 4% 7% 9% 7% 21% 16% 16% 9%

Dinner 0% 1% 1% 2% 6% 8% 13% 16% 17% 17% 11% 7%

Total 0% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 5%

Occasion Male Female

Breakfast 52% 48%

Lunch 41% 59%

Dinner 51% 49%

Total 48% 52%

TABLE 8.11 SEGMENTATION BY UK REGION, Q1 2013

Occasion

East Midlands

East of England

London North East

North West

Northern Ireland

Scotland South East

South West

Wales West

Midlands Yorkshire

Breakfast 9% 12% 9% 4% 11% 1% 7% 22% 8% 4% 8% 6%

Lunch 9% 8% 8% 3% 5% 4% 25% 16% 3% 11% 4% 2%

Dinner 9% 10% 8% 3% 8% 3% 11% 22% 9% 3% 7% 6%

Total 8% 8% 15% 5% 11% 1% 6% 19% 9% 4% 7% 7%

Page 132


Fine Dining Restaurants Consumer Demographic Profile

TABLE 8.12 SEGMENTATION BY AGE, Q1 2013

TABLE 8.13 SEGMENTATION BY GENDER, Q1 2013


HOTELS/FINE DINING RESTAURANTS – CONSUMER DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

Occasion Under

18 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Lunch 0% 1% 3% 1% 3% 3% 12% 24% 13% 13% 20% 7%

Dinner 0% 3% 3% 6% 5% 5% 13% 15% 16% 14% 15% 5%

Total 0% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 5%

Occasion Male Female

Lunch 44% 56%

Dinner 48% 52%

Total 48% 52%

TABLE 8.14 SEGMENTATION BY UK REGION, Q1 2013

Occasion East

Midlands East of

England London

North East

North West

Northern Ireland

Scotland South East

South West

Wales West

Midlands Yorkshire

Lunch 6% 9% 21% 2% 8% 2% 10% 22% 9% 3% 3% 3%

Dinner 10% 11% 17% 2% 10% 4% 8% 16% 7% 4% 4% 6%

Total 8% 8% 15% 5% 11% 1% 6% 19% 9% 4% 7% 7%

Page 133

Allegra Eating Out Panel, Quarterly Analysis Q1...

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