Allahabad Bank Result Updated

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Particulars (` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy)NII 1,381 1,318 4.7 1052 31.3Pre-prov. profit 1,030 949 8.5 788 30.6

    PAT 560 488 14.8 416 34.8Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 3QFY2012, Allahabad Bank reported 34.8% yoy growth in its net profit to

    `560cr, ahead of our estimates primarily due to lower-than-expected effective tax

    rate. On the PBT level, results were below our estimates due to higher-than-

    expected provisioning expenses. Though operating income came in-line with

    expectations, with NIM remaining stable sequentially, asset quality deterioratedwith slippages remaining elevated and restructuring rising sharply. We maintainour Neutral stance on the stock.NIM steady; Slippages rise further: During the quarter, advances growth wasmoderate at 4.9% qoq and 15.7% yoy. On the deposits side, growth was higher

    at 20.1% yoy. CASA deposits growth remained moderate at 10.6% yoy. Saving

    account deposits increased by 14.4% yoy, while current account deposits declined

    by 4.8%, leading to a 264bp yoy dip in CASA ratio at 30.6%. The 35bp qoq

    decline in yield on advances was largely compensated by the 32bp fall in cost of

    deposits, leading to a sequentially stable reported NIM of 3.7%. On the asset-

    quality front, annualized slippage ratio increased to 2.5% from 2.2% registered in

    2QFY2012. Management attributed ~60% of the slippages arising to the priority

    sector advances. Gross and net NPA ratios increased marginally to 1.9% and

    0.8%, respectively. Provision coverage ratio, including technical write-offs,

    declined by 155bp qoq to 78%. The bank restructured loans of ~`1,049cr during

    3QFY2012, much higher than the average run rate of `260cr of restructuring

    over the past six quarters.

    Outlook and valuation: Positives for Allahabad Bank include moderate CASAratio of 30.6% and better-than-peer average fee income at 0.8-0.9% of assets.

    Also, the banks return ratios are on the higher side; however, higher estimated

    provisioning expenses are expected to dent profitability going forward. The bank

    is trading at valuations of 0.7x FY2013E ABV, which we feel do not provideadequate margin of safety from the risk of asset-quality deterioration over

    FY2012-13. Hence, we have a Neutral recommendation on the stock.

    Key financialsY/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENII 2,650 4,022 5,282 5,866% chg 22.8 51.8 31.3 11.1

    Net profit 1,206 1,423 1,927 1,695% chg 57.0 18.0 35.4 (12.0)

    NIM (%) 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.3

    EPS (`) 27.0 29.9 40.5 35.6P/E (x) 6.1 5.5 4.1 4.6P/ABV (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7

    RoA (%) 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9

    RoE (%) 22.2 21.0 23.0 17.3

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    NEUTRALCMP `164

    Target Price -

    Investment Period -

    Stock Info

    Sector Banking

    Market Cap (` cr) 7,802

    Beta 1.1

    52 Week High / Low 240/114

    Avg. Daily Volume 108,766

    Face Value (`) 10BSE Sensex 17,301

    Nifty 5,236

    Reuters Code ALBK.BO

    Bloomberg Code ALBK@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 58.0

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 17.8

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.0

    Indian Public / Others 12.2

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex (1.0) (4.0) 83.6

    Allahabad Bank 9.9 (17.7) 234.0

    Vaibhav Agrawal022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

    [email protected]

    Shrinivas Bhutda022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845

    [email protected]

    Varun Varma022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

    [email protected]

    Allahabad BankPerformance Highlights

    3QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

    February 1, 2012

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 2

    Exhibit 1:3QFY2012 performanceParticulars (` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy)Interest earned 3,912 3,893 0.5 2,855 37.0- on Advances / Bills 2,927 2,961 (1.2) 2,131 37.4- on investments 935 907 3.1 712 31.4

    - on balance with RBI & others 38 20 90.0 11 253.0

    - on others 11 5 148.3 2 480.1

    Interest Expended 2,531 2,575 (1.7) 1,804 40.3Net Interest Income 1,381 1,318 4.7 1,052 31.3Other income 348 309 12.7 258 35.2Other income excl. treasury 327 302 8.3 238 37.8

    - Fee Income 213 257 (17.1) 174 22.4

    - Treasury Income 21 7 200.0 20 5.0

    - Recoveries from written-off a/cs 98 23 317.9 63 55.6

    - Others 16 22 (24.7) 1 2,459.4

    Operating income 1,729 1,627 6.2 1,309 32.1Operating expenses 699 678 3.1 521 34.2- Employee expenses 490 467 4.8 320 53.3

    - Other Opex 209 211 (0.7) 201 3.9

    Pre-provision Profit 1,030 949 8.5 788 30.6Provisions & Contingencies 421 412 2.3 236 78.6- Provisions for NPAs 306 302 1.3 175 74.7

    - Provisions for Investments 63 82 (23.2) 36 76.9

    - Other Provisions 52 28 88.9 25 108.4

    PBT 609 538 13.2 553 10.2Provision for Tax 48 50 (2.7) 137 (64.7)PAT 560 488 14.8 416 34.8Effective Tax Rate (%) 7.9 9.2 (130)bp 24.7 (1,682)bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:3QFY2012 Actual vs. estimatesParticulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)Net interest income 1,381 1,360 1.5

    Other income 348 341 2.3

    Operating income 1,729 1,700 1.7Operating expenses 699 667 4.7

    Pre-prov. profit 1,030 1,033 (0.3)Provisions & cont. 421 368 14.4

    PBT 609 665 (8.4)

    Prov. for taxes 48 213 (77.3)

    PAT 560 452 24.0Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 3

    Exhibit 3:3QFY2012 performance analysisParticulars (` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy)Balance sheetAdvances (

    `cr) 100,448 95,717 4.9 86,837 15.7

    Deposits (`cr) 145,300 142,043 2.3 120,948 20.1

    Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 69.1 67.4 175bp 71.8 (267)bp

    Current deposits (`cr) 7,558 7,609 (0.7) 7,940 (4.8)

    Saving deposits (`cr) 36,936 35,875 3.0 32,290 14.4

    CASA deposits (` cr) 44,494 43,484 2.3 40,230 10.6

    CASA ratio (%) 30.6 30.6 1bp 33.3 (264)bp

    CAR (%) 12.8 13.0 (24)bp 12.8 (3)bp

    Tier 1 CAR (%) 8.9 8.9 (2)bp 8.1 77bp

    Profitability Ratios (%)Cost of deposits 6.8 7.1 (32)bp 6.0 85bp

    Yield on advances 12.2 12.6 (35)bp 10.6 163bpYield on investments 7.6 7.6 1bp 7.1 44bp

    Yield on funds 10.5 10.9 (35)bp 9.3 117bp

    Cost of funds 6.8 7.1 (33)bp 5.9 84bp

    Reported NIM 3.7 3.7 5bp 3.4 29bp

    Cost-to-income ratio 40.4 41.7 (124)bp 39.8 65bp

    Asset qualityGross NPAs (` cr) 1,887 1,715 10.0 1,540 22.5

    Gross NPAs (%) 1.9 1.8 9bp 1.8 9bp

    Net NPAs (`cr) 796 664 19.9 507 57.1

    Net NPAs (%) 0.8 0.7 10bp 0.6 20bp

    Provision coverage ratio (%) 78.0 79.6 (155)bp 80.2 (219)bp Annualized slippage ratio (%) 2.5 2.2 32bp 2.0 52bp

    NPA prov. to avg. assets (%) 0.8 0.8 (2)bp 0.5 22bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Moderate business growth

    During the quarter, advances growth of the bank was moderate at 4.9% qoq and

    15.7% yoy. Growth in MSE loans was healthy at 35.8% yoy, followed by retail

    credit at 20.7% yoy. On a sequential basis, agri loans grew by healthy 6.3% qoq,

    while loans to the telecommunication sector declined of 9.1% qoq.

    Exhibit 4: Moderate business growth

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:Deterioration of CASA ratio continues

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    5.8

    7.8

    5.5

    (3.1

    )

    4.9

    6.4

    9.0

    1.5

    6.1

    2.3

    71.8 71.0

    73.8

    67.4

    69.1

    55.0

    60.0

    65.0

    70.0

    75.0

    (5.0)

    (2.5)

    -

    2.5

    5.0

    7.5

    10.0

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    Adv. qoq chg (%) Dep. qoq chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

    33.3

    33.5

    32.0

    30.6

    30.6

    21.6 20.7

    15.6

    10.3 10.6

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    28.0

    30.0

    32.0

    34.0

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 4

    On the deposits side, growth was higher at 20.1% yoy. CASA deposits growth

    remained moderate at 2.3% qoq and 10.6% yoy. Saving account deposits

    increased by 14.4% yoy, while current account deposits declined by 4.8%. CASA

    ratio remained steady sequentially at 30.6%, but declined by 264bp on a yoy basisfrom 33.3% in 3QFY2011.

    NIM remains stable

    The 35bp qoq decline in yield on advances was largely compensated by the 32bp

    fall in cost of deposits, leading to a sequentially stable reported NIM of 3.7%.

    Stable NIM was also aided by improvement in CD ratio (by 175bp qoq) and stable

    share of CASA deposits on a sequential basis.

    Exhibit 6:Lower cost of deposits...

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 7:...aids in maintaining stable NIM

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Slippages remain elevated; Restructuring crosses `1,000cr

    Slippages for the quarter rose from `520cr witnessed in 2QFY2012 to `596cr in

    3QFY2012, despite the bank having completed migration to system-based NPA

    recognition platform in 2QFY2012 itself. Annualized slippage ratio increased to

    2.5% in 3QFY2012 from 2.2% registered in 2QFY2012. Management attributed

    around 60% of the slippages arising to priority sector advances. On the back of

    aggressive write-offs of `251cr during the quarter, the rise in gross NPAs was

    contained at 10% qoq. Net NPAs on an absolute basis rose by 19.9% qoq and a

    sharp 57.1% yoy to `796cr. Gross and net NPA ratios increased marginally to

    1.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Provision coverage ratio, including technical write-

    offs, declined by 155bp qoq to 78%.

    The bank restructured loans of ~`1,049cr during 3QFY2012, much higher than

    the average run rate of `260cr of restructuring over the past six quarters.

    Restructuring carried out pertained across sectors viz. iron and steel, pharma,

    textile and infrastructure amongst others. Cumulatively, the bank has restructured

    loans of `3,823cr, of which `259cr have slipped into NPAs.

    6.0 6.0

    7.0 7.1

    6.8

    4.5

    5.5

    6.5

    7.5

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    (%)

    3.43.5

    3.4

    3.73.7

    2.7

    3.0

    3.3

    3.6

    3.9

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    (%)

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 5

    Exhibit 8:Asset quality deteriorates a bit

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR incl. technical write-offs

    Exhibit 9:Slippages remain elevated

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Opex to remain high on employee additions and otherbenefit-related provisions; Branch expansion picking up

    Staff expenses continued the sharp rising trend, increasing by 53.3% yoy. Even,

    overall operating expenses rose considerably by 34.2% yoy. However, on the back

    of healthy operating performance, the cost-to-income ratio improved by 124bp

    qoq to 40.4% and opex-to-average assets ratio remained steady sequentially at

    1.7%.

    Exhibit 10:Branch expansion modest

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Cost ratios remain steady

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    The bank added 36 branches in 3QFY2012. The bank plans to open 155

    branches in FY2012, which is likely to be back-ended, in economically stronger

    states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra (particularly Mumbai), Haryana, Karnataka

    and Andhra Pradesh. This will also enable the bank to geographically establish a

    wider branch network, as it is hardly present in these states. The bank added 62

    branches in 9MFY2012.

    1.8

    1.7

    1.6

    1.8

    1.9

    0.6

    0.8

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    80.2

    75.7

    79.9 79.6 78.0

    65.0

    70.0

    75.0

    80.0

    85.0

    -

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

    2.0 4.5 0.6 2.2 2.5

    0.5

    0.9

    0.4

    0.80.7

    -

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    -

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

    2,4022,415 2,416

    2,441

    2,477

    2,300

    2,350

    2,400

    2,450

    2,500

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    39.8

    51.9

    39.1

    41.7

    40.4

    1.5

    2.3

    1.51.7 1.7

    -

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    -

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    60.0

    3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

    Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 6

    Investment arguments

    Healthy retail deposit base

    Allahabad Bank has a substantial 41% of its branches in the CASA deposit-richrural areas, which ensure higher sustainability of the low-cost deposits reservoir,

    also reflected in the strong 24.0% CAGR in the banks saving account deposits

    over FY200911. Although the banks CASA market share reduced by 25bp over

    FY20061HFY2012 to 2.4%, the decline in market share has been one of the

    lowest in its peer group. Recently, the bank has secured a mandate from the West

    Bengal State Government for opening accounts for disbursal of salaries. These

    initiatives are expected to at least sustain the CASA ratio at current levels. Also, the

    bank has a relatively lower share of wholesale deposits and CDs at 12.8%.

    The bank is now planning to diversify its branch network by expanding in the

    economically vibrant states of Gujarat, Maharashtra (particularly Mumbai),Haryana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The banks better CASA ratio, of

    3233%, is also likely to help in moderating the expected NIM pressures.

    As compared to peers such as IOB, OBC, Corporation Bank and UCO Bank, the

    bank has a higher structural CASA share.

    Moderate fee income

    Growth in fee income (other income excluding treasury income) has been strong at

    a 45.8% CAGR over FY200911 (0.9% of average assets for FY2011). However,

    we have factored in lower growth in fee income than peers, as a large part of the

    banks high fee income was driven by above-average recoveries from written-offaccounts (0.24% of average assets for FY2011), which could decline going

    forward.

    Higher yielding loans could lead to higher NPAs Allahabad Bank had one of the highest reported yield on advances for 3QFY2012

    (12.2%) amongst all PSU banks. The banks yield on advances has risen by 185bp

    yoy, the highest increase within the PSU segment, indicating increased risk taking

    in the form of higher yielding loans over the past one year. While the banks

    provisioning costs are on the higher side (0.95% for 9MFY2012 compared to

    average of ~0.8% for PSUs), risk-adjusted yields are still well above sector

    average, indicating the possibility of any negative surprises on the asset-quality

    front. As a result, with no additional room for expansion in yields, and asset quality

    expected to further see deterioration due to higher risk taking, higher-than-peer

    average return ratios for the bank could come under pressure.

    Outlook and valuation

    Management indicated that it had paid ~`300cr extra for income tax in FY2011,

    which is likely to be refunded in 2HFY2012. The effective tax rate for FY2012 is

    expected to be on the lower side at 21-22% on account of taking benefits of

    various exemptions. Accordingly, the effective tax rate for 3QFY2012 was just

    7.9%, which propped up the overall bottom line. We have increased our earningsestimate for FY2012 by ~5% to factor in the lower-than-expected effective tax rate.

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 7

    Positives for Allahabad Bank include moderate CASA ratio of 30.6% and

    better-than-peer average fee income at 0.8-0.9% of assets. Also, the banks return

    ratios are on the higher side; however, higher estimated provisioning expenses are

    expected to dent profitability going forward. The bank is trading at valuations of0.7x FY2013E ABV, which we feel do not provide adequate margin of safety from

    the risk of asset-quality deterioration over FY2012-13. Hence, we have a Neutralrecommendation on the stock.Exhibit 12:Key assumptionsParticulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimatesFY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013Credit growth 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0

    Deposit growth 11.0 14.0 11.0 14.0

    CASA ratio 35.0 35.5 35.0 35.5

    NIMs 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3

    Other income growth (2.5) 4.9 (2.5) 4.9

    Growth in staff expenses 12.0 13.0 17.0 13.0

    Growth in other expenses 15.0 15.0 8.0 15.0

    Slippages 2.4 3.1 2.5 3.0

    Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.1

    Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Change in estimatesParticulars (` cr)

    FY2012 FY2013Earlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%) Earlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%)

    NII 5,252 5,282 0.6 5,831 5,866 0.6

    Non-interest income 1,336 1,336 - 1,401 1,401 -

    Operating income 6,588 6,618 0.5 7,232 7,267 0.5Operating expenses 2,642 2,666 0.9 3,004 3,029 0.8

    Pre-prov. profit 3,946 3,952 0.2 4,228 4,238 0.2Provisions & cont. 1,473 1,544 4.8 1,700 1,729 1.7

    PBT 2,473 2,408 (2.6) 2,529 2,509 (0.8)

    Prov. for taxes 643 482 (25.1) 820 814 (0.8)

    PAT 1,830 1,927 5.3 1,708 1,695 (0.8)Source: Angel Research

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 14:P/ABV band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 15:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2013EP/ABV (x) FY2013ETgt P/ABV (x) FY2013EP/E (x) FY2011E-13EEPS CAGR (%) FY2013ERoA (%) FY2013ERoE (%) AxisBk Buy 1,088 1,36125.2 1.8 2.2 9.4 18.2 1.5 20.2

    FedBk Neutral 401 - - 1.1 - 8.7 16.2 1.2 13.2

    HDFCBk Neutral 497 - - 3.4 - 17.3 30.4 1.8 21.0

    ICICIBk* Buy 888 1,061 19.5 1.6 2.0 14.0 19.2 1.3 14.4

    SIB Neutral 23 - - 1.1 - 6.9 13.5 0.9 17.5

    YesBk Accumulate 335 367 9.3 2.1 2.3 11.1 20.1 1.4 20.6

    AllBk Neutral 164 - - 0.7 - 4.6 9.1 0.9 17.3 AndhBk Neutral 102 -- 0.8 - 5.0 (4.8) 0.8 14.6

    BOB Buy 755 907 20.1 1.0 1.3 5.8 9.8 1.1 19.3

    BOI Neutral 341 - - 1.1 - 7.2 2.3 0.6 13.7

    BOM Accumulate 48 53 11.4 0.7 0.8 4.9 26.3 0.7 16.9

    CanBk Accumulate 472 528 11.9 0.9 1.1 6.0 (7.4) 0.8 15.8

    CentBk Neutral 85 - - 0.8 - 5.5 (25.1) 0.4 11.4

    CorpBk Accumulate 416 450 8.1 0.7 0.8 4.5 (1.8) 0.8 15.5

    DenaBk Neutral 69 - - 0.5 - 3.6 2.4 0.8 14.9

    IDBI# Accumulate 100 107 7.2 0.7 0.7 4.9 9.9 0.7 13.4

    IndBk Neutral 227 - - 0.9 - 5.4 3.8 1.2 18.4

    IOB Neutral 88 - - 0.6 - 4.6 5.3 0.5 12.8

    J&KBk Accumulate 811 877 8.1 0.8 0.9 4.7 16.7 1.4 19.0

    OBC Neutral 269 - - 0.7 - 5.9 (5.9) 0.7 11.3

    PNB Accumulate 956 1,036 8.4 1.1 1.2 6.0 6.4 1.0 19.4

    SBI* Accumulate 2,077 2,359 13.6 1.7 1.9 10.1 26.0 0.8 17.9

    SynBk Accumulate 98 106 8.5 0.6 0.7 4.1 13.7 0.7 16.5

    UcoBk Neutral 71 - - 0.9 - 4.6 10.9 0.6 15.4

    UnionBk Neutral 234 - - 1.0 - 5.9 0.1 0.7 15.8

    UtdBk Accumulate 70 75 7.7 0.7 0.7 4.8 4.3 0.6 12.1

    VijBk Reduce 56 52(8.2) 0.8 0.7 6.4 0.7 0.4 11.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

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    Allahabad Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

    February 1, 2012 9

    Income statementY/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13ENet Interest Income 1,751 1,672 2,159 2,650 4,022 5,282 5,866- YoY Growth (%) 11.0 (4.5) 29.1 22.8 51.8 31.3 11.1Other Income 376 965 1,142 1,516 1,370 1,336 1,401- YoY Growth (%) (22.0) 156.3 18.4 32.7 (9.6) (2.5) 4.9

    Operating Income 2,127 2,637 3,301 4,166 5,393 6,618 7,267- YoY Growth (%) 3.3 24.0 25.2 26.2 29.4 22.7 9.8

    Operating Expenses 1,027 1,158 1,399 1,618 2,338 2,666 3,029- YoY Growth (%) (0.8) 12.7 20.9 15.6 44.5 14.0 13.6

    Pre - Provision Profit 1,100 1,480 1,901 2,549 3,055 3,952 4,238- YoY Growth (%) 7.4 34.5 28.5 34.1 19.9 29.4 7.2

    Prov. & Cont. 265 357 825 777 1,124 1,544 1,729- YoY Growth (%) (17.2) 35.1 131.0 (5.9) 44.7 37.4 12.0

    Profit Before Tax 835 1,122 1,076 1,772 1,931 2,408 2,509- YoY Growth (%) 18.5 34.3 (4.1) 64.7 9.0 24.7 4.2

    Prov. for Taxation 85 147 307 565 508 482 814- as a % of PBT 10.2 13.1 28.6 31.9 26.3 20.0 32.4

    PAT 750 975 769 1,206 1,423 1,927 1,695- YoY Growth (%) 6.2 29.9 (21.1) 57.0 18.0 35.4 (12.0)

    Balance sheetY/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13EShare Capital 447 447 447 447 476 476 476Reserves & Surplus 4,030 4,774 5,405 6,306 8,031 9,515 10,822

    Deposits 59,544 71,616 84,972 106,056 131,887 146,395 166,890

    - Growth (%) 22.8 20.3 18.6 24.8 24.4 11.0 14.0

    Borrowings 257 1,792 937 1,424 3,006 3,348 3,814

    Tier 2 Capital 1,582 1,862 2,912 4,012 3,912 4,460 5,084

    Other Liab. & Prov. 1,804 2,448 2,975 3,455 3,974 4,270 4,852

    Total Liabilities 67,664 82,939 97,648 121,699 151,286 168,463 191,938Cash Balances 4,068 6,289 5,115 7,184 7,901 9,516 10,848

    Bank Balances 874 753 1,521 1,984 3,126 3,369 3,839

    Investments 18,746 23,400 29,651 38,429 43,247 45,113 51,365

    Advances 41,290 49,720 58,802 71,605 93,625 106,732 121,675

    - Growth (%) 41.7 20.4 18.3 21.8 30.8 14.0 14.0

    Fixed Assets 1,056 1,071 1,110 1,118 1,148 1,240 1,371

    Other Assets 1,629 1,705 1,449 1,379 2,239 2,493 2,840

    Total Assets 67,664 82,939 97,648 121,699 151,286 168,463 191,938- Growth (%) 22.4 22.6 17.7 24.6 24.3 11.4 13.9

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    February 1, 2012 10

    Ratio analysisY/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13EProfitability ratios (%)NIMs 3.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.3Cost to Income Ratio 48.3 43.9 42.4 38.8 43.4 40.3 41.7

    RoA 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9

    RoE 22.6 24.6 16.5 22.2 21.0 23.0 17.3

    B/S ratios (%)CASA Ratio 38.0 36.0 34.6 34.5 33.5 35.0 35.5

    Credit/Deposit Ratio 69.3 69.4 69.2 67.5 71.0 72.9 72.9

    CAR 12.5 12.0 13.1 13.6 13.0 13.7 13.7

    - Tier I 8.1 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.1

    Asset Quality (%)Gross NPAs 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.9 4.5

    Net NPAs 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4

    Slippages 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 3.0

    Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9

    Provision Coverage 57.0 58.6 59.5 79.0 75.7 78.0 75.0

    Per Share Data (`)EPS 16.8 21.8 17.2 27.0 29.9 40.5 35.6

    ABVPS 76.0 93.5 107.7 131.7 160.5 191.7 219.1

    DPS 3.0 3.5 2.5 5.5 6.0 8.0 7.0

    Valuation RatiosPER (x) 9.8 7.5 9.5 6.1 5.5 4.1 4.6

    P/ABVPS (x) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7

    Dividend Yield 1.8 2.1 1.5 3.4 3.7 4.9 4.3

    DuPont Analysis (%)NII 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.3

    (-) Prov. Exp. 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0

    Adj. NII 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3

    Treasury (0.1) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0

    Int. Sens. Inc. 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3

    Other Inc. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7

    Op. Inc. 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1

    Opex 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7PBT 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4

    Taxes 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5

    RoA 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9Leverage (x) 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.2 20.2 19.1 18.4

    RoE 22.6 24.6 16.5 22.2 21.0 23.0 17.3

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement Allahabad Bank

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