Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development...

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Presentation for the Expert Workshop on

“Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development”

Tokyo, June 15, 2006

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

([email protected])



Agenda

Development and Climate: The Perspective

Framework for Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

Illustrations from India

• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals

• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation

• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity

• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia

• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate

Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Conclusions


Development and Climate Perspective and Framework


Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?

� Climate change is a derivative problem of development

� Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities

� Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive &

expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century

� Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and

climate change have many common elements, and aligning

these would reduce costs and minimize welfare losses


Development and Climate: The Perspective

Conventional perspective

• Development is a threat to climate

• Climate change is a barrier to development

Development and Climate perspective

• Pathways to achieve sustainable development

goals are climate-friendly

• Sustainable Development is the driving force for

addressing climate change challenges

Climate Quality

Economic/social Indicator

Conventional Frontier

Climate QualityEconomic/social Indicator

Frontier under Development and Climate Perspective


Development and Climate: Shifting the Frontier

Shifting development and climate “frontier” though:

• Innovations (technology, institutions)

• International and regional cooperation

• Targeted technology and investment flows

• Aligning stakeholder interests

• Focusing on inputs rather than outputs (conduct vs.results)

National Development Targets

Climate Quality

Economic/social Indicator

Climate Quality

Econom

ic/s

ocia

l In

dic

ato

r

Climate Goal

Technology & Institutional Innovations;

Co-benefits


Development and Climate: Framework

Approach

• Shift baseline

• Multiple dividends

• Link local & global; short &

long-term

400

600

800

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990

kgC/to

e

China

India

USA

Japan

France

2000

Decarbonization of Primary Energy

??

Methodology for assessment

• Scenarios (key drivers, development policies)

• Processes (cooperation, learning)

• Institutions (rule of law, governance)

• Resources (endowments, human capital, finance)


• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced

GHG and local emissions; lower

fossil imports; reduced pressure on

land, resources and ecosystems

• Higher adaptive capacity to from

enhanced supply of water, health &

education in rural areas

• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and

33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

• Sustained access to potable drinking water

to all villages by 2007

• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012

via decentralized sources

• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by

2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Goal 7: Ensure environmental

sustainability

Targets: Integrate SD principles in country

policies/ programs to reverse loss of

environmental resources

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of

people without sustainable access to safe

drinking water

• Income effect would enhance

choices for cleaner fuels and

adaptive capacity

• Reduce GHG Emissions due to

lower population

• Double the per capita income by 2012

• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012

• Contain population growth to 16.2%

between 2001-2011

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and

hunger

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,

the proportion of people with income

below $1 a day and those who suffer from

hunger

Interface with Climate ChangeIndia’s National plan targetsMDG and global targets

MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change

Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

Climate policies and actions to be driven by:• National development targets

• Agreed goals under extant international agreements







• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change

Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures


Energy Transitions: How they matte to Low Carbon Future?

Perc

en

tag

e o

f P

rim

ary

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1952 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001

TraditionalBiomass

Hydro

Coal

Oil

GasNuclear

How to transit to Modern Biomass?

Food Security?

Domestic Resource: +ve

Direct Employment: +ve

Energy Security: -ve

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Geopolitical Risk: High

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Fuel Supply?

Waste disposal?

Safety?

Regional water disputes?

Indirect Benefits

En. Security: +Ve


Bio-diesel: Multiple Dividends

• Rural Employment:Large scale employment potential in Jatropha plantation, seed collection and extraction

• Farm Income (from waste lands):Net income Rs. 12000/Ha/year

• Energy SecurityImported fossil oil is replaced

• EnvironmentNeutral carbon emissions, Rehabilitates waste land

Rural Employment

Oil Extraction Plant

Jatropha Plantation in India


Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Medium-Term (2050)

IA2

IB1

IA1

750

2000

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

2020 2050

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(Mil

lion

Ton)

20402010 2030

Frozen Technology

Conventional Technology Path: Includes significant endogenous technological change

Renewable Energy Technologies

Push for renewable energy & recycling

Advanced car pooling, Shared assets

Sustainable habitats, Reforestation

Dematerialization, Community institutions

High speed trains, Swap of transport by IT

Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear (Thorium)

Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure

Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas

Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks

Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

Sustainable Development Scenario

Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario


Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long-term (2100)

Sustainable Development Scenario

Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario

IA2

IB1

2100

750

2000

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

5250

6000

2020 2060

6750

2040 2080

IA1

Frozen Technology

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(Mil

lion

Ton)

Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear Fusion

IT controlled buildings/appliances

Advanced global shipping networks

Fuel cell vehicles, High air transport share

Global R&D, Intensive agriculture

Conventional Technology Paths: Includes significant endogenous technological change

Renewable Energy Technologies

Decentralized & renewable technologies

Lifestyle changes, Eco-friendly choices

Sustainable habitats, Service Pools

Multi-purpose water systems

Integrated resources/technology planning

Sustainable agriculture/forestry/land-use


Stabilization Induced Technological Change – IA2 Scenario550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization in India

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture

Energy Efficiency

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV550 PPMV 400

800

1200

2000

1600

Ton of C


LPS Locations

Year: 2000 Year: 2030


Co-Benefits: Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation

Joint mitigation costs $400

Million less

Joint Mitigation: CO2

mitigation @ $5/ton

& same SO2

target

Little carbon mitigationSO2

mitigation alone

Co-benefitsMitigation Regime

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)

SO2 EmissionsM

illi

on

To

n S

O2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

Frozen SO2 Control Policies

A2 Scenario Emission

Carbon Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

of

Ca

rbo

n

A2 Scenario Emissions

With Carbon Price @ $5/ton of CO2

With BAU SO2 Control Policies


Food–Water–Energy–Environment Nexus

Food

Agriculture uses

Ground Water for

Irrigation

WaterWater use depends

on crop pattern,

cultivation practices,

electricity supply etc

Environment

GHG emissions

depend on Energy/

Technology Mix

EnergyEnergy use depends on

pump efficiency, water

depth and Agriculture

practices

Electricity tariff reforms, water pricing reforms, energy efficiency programs (e.g.

substitution of inefficient irrigation pump-sets) decentralized energy programs (e.g.

micro-hydro development) have made this nexus more sustainable


Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity GenerationState of Andhra Pradesh

0

800

1600

2400

3200

4000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Infl

ow

(M

TC

)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Rain

fall (m

m)Water Inflow

Rainfall in Catchments Area

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1984 1988 1992 2000

Hyd

ro E

lect

rici

ty G

ener

ati

on

(T

Wh

)

1996

Rainfall and Water Inflows Hydro Electricity Generation


Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity GenerationState of Andhra Pradesh

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

% S

hare

of

Hyd

ro E

lect

rici

ty G

ener

ati

on

Share of Hydro Carbon Emissions Baseline of Andhra Pradesh

0.0

0.5

0.75

1.0

1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000k

g (

Carb

on

Dio

xid

e)/K

Wh

1980-1990Pre Reforms Period

1990-2001 Reforms Period

Coal

Fossil Electricity

Fossil Electricity

Total Electricity Total Electricity

Gas

1.25

0.25


0.031050 Million TonSO2

0.98359Total

0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.

0.8732160 Exa JouleEnergy

% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulative

from 2010 to 2030

South-Asia Energy Cooperation

Spillover Benefits:

• 16 MW additional Hydropower

• Flood control

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries

Integrated South-Asia Energy Market


Carbon Dioxide Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms

Cumulative CO2 not Emitted:

140 million ton

1.10

0.90

0.70

0.50

1994 20001992 19961990 1998

Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms

Fossil Electricity with Reforms

Total Electricity w/o Reforms

Total Electricity with Reforms

Kg (

Carb

on

Dio

xid

e) /

KW

h

2001

Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity







• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures


2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Rep

air a

nd M

ain

tenance

Cost

s

Cost with adverse

Climate Change

Conventional

Bath-Tub Curve

Cost with adverse Climate

Change and Deforestation

Maintenance Cost Curve

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less numberof days with >200

mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future ClimatePro

bab

ilit

y o

f O

ccu

rren

ce

Light and

spread-over rain

Heavy and

concentrated rainNumber of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate

Change

Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability

Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure


Conclusions: Aligning Development and Climate

Transiting to Low Carbon Society– Global development along high carbon path is untenable– Stand-alone decarbonization is costly– Most sustainable development actions are climate friendly

– Mainstreaming climate change in development actions reduces welfare losses

Low Carbon Society and Developing Countries– Developing countries will have low per capita emissions throughout the

century, but their emissions intensities will be high

– Significant opportunities exist in developing countries for gaining co-benefits– Developing Countries have opportunities to decide the development pathway– Mitigation and adaptation cost for any stabilization scenario is lower where

development pathway follow sustainability goals

Low Carbon Society and India – India’s population throughout the century will remain around a sixth of global

population

– India’s development along the sustainable path is vital for global sustainability

– Stabilization regime would induce significant mitigation and adaptation in India; altering energy system and imposing significant costs

– India’s Low Carbon Transition would deliver sizable global benefits

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development...

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