Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost Buurman.

Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost Buurman

Contents:

• Introduction• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies• Historical and geographical background

Pilot site-Lisbon• Policy-plans and ‘driving forces’• Planned simulations with Euroscanner

Objectives of the pilot-studies

Provide examples of the spatial analysis possible in EuroScanner.

Translation of theoretical knowledge about rural-urban interactions into spatial transition rules

Assist policy makers in evaluation of different policies and scenarios.

Choice of the pilot-sites

Rotterdam/Randstad Metropoliton region

Paris-region Global city

Lisbon-region Capital city

Problem definition pilot-site Lisbon

What rural-urban land use developments took place in the Lisbon area the last decades, how can these developments be explained and translated to land use rules and what will be the effect of different scenarios and spatial strategies?

Contents:



Lisbon and Tagus Valley Region (LTVR)

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MOITA

MAFRA

TOMAR

OEIRAS

SINTRA

LISBOA

ALMADA

SEIXAL

LOURES

ÓBIDOS

NAZARÉ

GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ

CASCAIS

AMADORA

SETÚBAL

PALMELA

MONTIJO

CORUCHE

CARTAXO

CADAVAL

PENICHE

SARDOAL

BARREIRO

SESIMBRA

ALENQUERAZAMBUJA

SANTARÉMLOURINHÃ

ALCOBAÇA

ALCANENA ABRANTES

CHAMUSCA

ALPIARÇA

ALMEIRIM

ALCOCHETE

BENAVENTE

RIO MAIOR

BOMBARRAL

CONSTÂNCIATORRES NOVAS

TORRES VEDRAS

ENTRONCAMENTO

CALDAS DA RAINHA

ARRUDA DOS VINHOS

VILA NOVA DE OURÉM FERREIRA DO ZÊZERE

SALVATERRA DE MAGOS

VILA FRANCA DE XIRA

SOBRAL DE MONTE AGRAÇO

VILA NOVA DA BARQUINHA

(MONTIJO)

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0 10 20 KilometersKm

NUT 3Grande LisboaLezíria do TejoMédio TejoOestePenínsula de Setúbal

Municipalities# Head of Municipality

Tagus River

Major Road NetworkIP highwayIC highway

Railway

Most dynamic area of Portugal• 13.5% of the mainland (11,927 sqKm)

• 35.1% of the population (3,292,108 inhabitants)

• population density of 276 inhab/sqKm (105.9 inhab/sqKm for the mainland)

North/South dualismNorth:

• Active industrial area

• Agricultural activity (fresh vegetables, wine and fruit)

South:

• Few industrial activity (except for the Setúbal Peninsula)

• Poor agricultural activity (except for the Ribatejo) together with some forestal production

Agriculture and forest in LTVR

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Annual CultivationPermenent CultivationMeadowMixed Cultivation

River Tagus


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Other forestPinewoodBushesMixed forestScarce vegetation

River Tagus


Population and Economic activity

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MOITA

MAFRA

TOMAR

OEIRAS

SINTRA

LISBOA

ALMADA

SEIXAL

LOURES

ÓBIDOS

NAZARÉ

GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ

CASCAIS

AMADORA

SETÚBAL

PALMELA

MONTIJO

CORUCHE

CARTAXO

CADAVAL

PENICHE

SARDOAL

BARREIRO

SESIMBRA

ALENQUERAZAMBUJA

SANTARÉM

LOURINHÃ

ALCOBAÇA

ALCANENA ABRANTES

CHAMUSCA

ALPIARÇA

ALMEIRIM

ALCOCHETE

BENAVENTE

RIO MAIOR

BOMBARRAL


TORRES VEDRAS

ENTRONCAMENTO

CALDAS DA RAINHA

ARRUDA DOS VINHOS

VILA NOVA DE OURÉM FERREIRA DO ZÊZERE

SALVATERRA DE MAGOS

VILA FRANCA DE XIRA



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Inhabitants/sqKm0 - 100101 - 500501 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 45100


Most dynamic and densely populated area of Portugal

• population density of 276 inhab/sqKm (105.9 inhab/sqKm for the mainland)

• peek between 25 and 45100 inhab/sqKm

• North/South dualism

EC support (1989-1993)

• 35.4% of total support

• 70.7% of industrial support

• Exclusion from Objective 1 regions for the next framework

Data (values in EURO) LTVR Mainland

Industrial Productivity (1994) 19,529,434 11,916,781

Tertiary Productivity (1994) 15,663,252 12,567,213

GDP per capita (1994) 9,408.11 7,487.66

Pilot-site area of Lisbon

The choice of the boundary of the pilot-site area

• interaction urban/rural is more intense in Lisbon Metropolitan Area and surrounding area;

• the localisation in Ota of the proposed new international airport of Lisbon;

• the regional plan for the LMA that is being developed;

• the available satellite images.

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MOITA

MAFRA

TOMAR

OEIRAS

SINTRA

LISBOA

ALMADA

SEIXAL

LOURES

ÓBIDOS

NAZARÉ

GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ

CASCAIS

AMADORA

SETÚBAL

PALMELA

MONTIJO

CORUCHE

CARTAXO

CADAVAL

PENICHE

SARDOAL

BARREIRO

SESIMBRA

ALENQUERAZAMBUJA

SANTARÉMLOURINHÃ

ALCOBAÇA

ALCANENA ABRANTES

CHAMUSCA

ALPIARÇA

ALMEIRIM

ALCOCHETE

BENAVENTE

RIO MAIOR

BOMBARRAL


TORRES VEDRAS

ENTRONCAMENTO

CALDAS DA RAINHA

ARRUDA DOS VINHOS

VILA NOVA DE OURÉMFERREIRA DO ZÊZERE

SALVATERRA DE MAGOS

VILA FRANCA DE XIRA



(MONTIJO)

N


Study Area

1984 1998Satellite images

Urban Development 1970-1990Urban Area - 1970

Urban Area0 5 10 KilometersKm

Urban Area - 1990


Contents:



Urban Development Axis and AccessibilityUrban Area - 1970


Urban Area - 1990


1 - Cascais2 - Sintra3 - Loures4 - Vila Franca Xira5 - Almada-Fogueteiro

0 5 10 KilometersKm

Urban Area

Urban Development Axis

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Urban Development Axis1 - Cascais

Structured by the railway along the coast with the support of A6 and N6

First area to have a urbanisation plan

Middle and high income residents

Self sustainable region that is attracting outside investment

2 - SintraMajor urbanisation axis of Lisbon

Structured along railway and IC19

Highly dense and compact urbanisation or chaotic urbanisation

500.000 inhabitants (25% of LMA) mostly middle and low income

Industrial and distribution activities

3 - LouresOnly supported by road access

Densely occupied near Lisbon with some chaotic urbanisation

Middle and low income residents

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Urban Development Axis4 - Vila Franca Xira

Structured by the railway, N10 and A1

Heavy industry axis connected with former Lisbon industrial area

Low income residential area mixed with industrial locations between A1 and Tagus

Large clandestine urbanisation above A1

5 - Almada-FogueteiroOnly South side axis

Supported by A2 and N10 after 1966

Oldest part corresponds to the Almada City, Pragal and Cacilhas that were connected to Lisbon by boat

Reinforcement of this axis is expected due to the recently train connection to Lisbon and light railway.

This area has one of largest clandestine occupation of the LMA

Radial development centred in Lisbon with a railway and road radial configuration

Accessibility to Lisbon

Absence of planning

Fragmentation

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ItemsUrban AreasUrban ExpansionDisperse UrbanisationUrban Green AreasPublic ServicesNew Public ServicesIndustrial AreasIndustrial ExpansionRecreation AreasNew Recreation Areas

Urban and Regional Plans

Total absence of planning

The exception is the Master Plan for Estoril Coast (from the 40’s)

First law of municipal planning is from 1982, but only in the 90’s plans were made

All plans were concluded between 92 and 99

Regarding the proposals it is relevant:

• Urban development on the North

• consolidation of the fifth development axis

• new recreation areas on Benavente

LMA Regional PlanStrategic Schema

Objectives• Promote LMA as Atlantic

capital of Europe

• Re-centre the LMA in Tagus estuary

• Poli-centre the urban development

• Preserve and promote territorial diversity and environmental quality

Territorial Strategy• Create a dual zone core• Create a ring of service

centres • Push industrial locations

out• Create Internationalisation

poles• Recover and integrate

illegal urbanisation• Create gateways to national

and international networks• Preserve and link natural

areas

Contents:



Ways to use Euroscanner:

1. Future exploration. Simulation of (alternative) spatial perspectives based on expert judgement.

2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation of a future ‘reference-image’ or ‘base-scenario’ based on statistical analysis.

3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions in landscape or infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or statistically based transition rules.

4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B (including transition rules) ?

5. Combination of one or more methods.

Netherlands Country of Cities

Netherlands Landscapepark

Netherlands Country of Flows

Netherlands Palette.

Simulation of spatial perspectives, Netherlands 2030

Attractivity residential areas = ([5] * (if pk.landscape > [-0.4]) and pk.landscape < [-0.1]))

then [1] else [0] endif )) + ([5] * pk.water)) + ([2] * manmade.wcl)

Netherlands landscapepark

Base maps (not all of them...)

Gravity-map of transitions in landscape patterns

Valuable man-made landscapes

Gravity-map to water-areas

Expansion residential area compared to 1995

(Parklandscape)

Expansion residential area compared to 1995

(Netherlands country of flows)

Ways to use Euroscanner:

1. Future exploration. Simulation of (alternative) spatial perspectives based on expert judgement.

2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation of a future ‘reference-image’ or ‘base-scenario’ based on statistical analysis.

3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions in landscape or infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or statistically based transition rules.

4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B (including transition rules) ?

5. Combination of one or more methods.

Our approach:

3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies1. Future exploration

3

14

VisualisationEvaluation

& Communication

References[1] CCRLVT, 1999; PROTAML, Ante-Projecto, CCRLVT, Lisboa

[2] Hilferink, M., P. Rietveld, 1998; Land-use Scanner, discussion paper 98-108/3, Tinbergen Institute. YUSE GSO Object Vision / Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

[3] Julião, R. P. (Coord.), 1998; Atlas de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, UNL/FCSH - Dep. de Geografia e Planeamento Regional, Lisboa

[4] Schotten, C.G.J., W.T. Boersma, J. Groen en .J. van de Velde, 1997; Simulatie van de ruimtelijke perspectieven Nederland 2030. RIVM-rapport 711901 004. RIVM, Bilthoven.

Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost Buurman.

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Transcript of Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost Buurman.