Building in an uncertain future - Increasing

your adaptive capacity to climate change

Alex Moczarski, Project Officer (Business), UKCIP

18th November 2009

Agenda

• UKCIP

• UKCP09

• Business & climate change adaptation

• Conclusions

Focus : “Promoting the tools and knowledge to help organisations adapt to the impacts of climate change”

We do this through:

• Stakeholder-led research

• Partnerships with business support and trade associations

• Facilitated one to one programmes

• Enabling capacity building to climate change

• Set up in 1997 and majority funded by Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

• Based at University of Oxford

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

UKCIP - a boundary organisation

“Connecting scientists, policy makers and decisions makers”

UKCIP resources and support

All tools free from www.ukcip.org.uk

Support:

Regional PartnershipsSectoral PartnershipsBusiness Capacity

BuildingLA Capacity Building

TRCCG adaptation publications

Checklist for development

Case study companion

Good practice guide for sustainable communities

http://www.london.gov.uk/trccg/publications/

Climate change is unavoidable…

Determ

ined by c

urrent &

futu

re e

miss

ions

Predetermined, in

evitable

The future?

What will it look like?

Newcastle?

Lincolnshire?

The Heatwave in Europe of 2003

Hadley Centre

Europe:

30,000 deaths attributed to the heat wave

Forest fires and crop damage seriously impacted economy

Economic losses in excess of £7.5bn

England (3-14/8/03):

Excess mortality

All ages: 2091(17%)

>75: 1781(23%)

Emergency hospital admissions (>75)

1490 (6%)

Summer 2003 ‘Heat wave’ could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s

observationsMedium-High emissions (modelled)European

summer temperatures

Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

UK Climate Projections

• Launched on 18 June 2009

A Unique Product

• The world’s first publicly available probabilistic climate projections

• Incorporates other global models

• Information provided at different levels of detail

• 25km resolution

• Available FREE online at: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

• UK Climate Projections offer probabilistic climate projections

• UKCIP02 said:

“there will be this much change”

• UK Climate Projections says:

“there is __% probability there will be this much change”

UK Climate Projections are probabilistic

Amount of projected change

Probability %

Many different formats…

25km Administrativeregions

Riverbasins

Marine Stormsurge

Subsurface

Summer mean max temperature 2050’s high emissions scenario

90% probability level:very unlikely to be greater

than

50% probability level:central estimate

10% probability level:very unlikely to be less than

Change in summer mean maximum temperature (ºC)

Spatial variations

Change in annual mean temperature (ºC)High emissions scenario

2020s 2050s 2080s

90% probability level:very unlikely to be greater than

10% probability level:very unlikely to be less than

50% probability level:central estimate

Change in annual mean temperature (ºC)

Online support – User Guidance

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Trends

• The UK will continue to get warmer

• Summers will continue to get hotter and drier

• Winters will continue to get milder and wetter

• Sea levels will continue to rise

Extremes

• More very hot days

• Fewer very cold days

• More frequent heavy winter precipitation

• More frequent winter storms

The future can no longer be modelled on the past.

Expected climate changes in the UK

From Climate Change to Business Consequences

Trends

Hotter, drier summers

Milder, wetter winters

Greater proportion of rain in

heavy downpours

Sea level rise

Events

Heat waves

Droughts

Floods

Fewer cold

snaps

Storms

Consequences

Loss of business continuity

Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs

Health/ comfort implications for employees

Increased/ decreased productivity

Changing markets

Effect on reputation

Impacts

Damage to physical assets

Loss of access to buildings

Effects on biological/ industrial processes

Uncomfortable indoor environments

Damage to critical infrastructure

Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes

Changing commodity prices/ availability

Why consider climate change?

Climate Change

Potential impacts on:

Markets

Logistics

Process

Finance

People

Premises

Management response

Reputational risk

Health & safety risk

Strategic riskFinancial risk

Operational risk

Environmental risk Potential impacts on:

Your business

assets and activities

Adapting Built ‘Structures’

Three types of ‘structures’ need ‘adapting’ to climate change

1. New physical structures being designed for the new weather and climate conditions expected in 21st Century and beyond.

2. Existing physical structures which may need to be modified in the face of the new weather and climate conditions to which they will now be exposed.

3. Existing institutional and governance structures (Building Regulations, CIBSE Guides, Eurocodes, Codes for Sustainable Homes, etc) which need to adapt regulations, codes and standards to recognise the future changes in weather and climate.

• sustainable construction: link CC adaptation and mitigation agendas – how can the demands of both be met?

• building fabric: vulnerable to wind, rain, heat and sun

• building structure: vulnerable to storm, heat, subsidence, flood

• internal environment: less winter heating required, more summer cooling required but avoid a/c and emissions

• existing buildings: retrofit represents a major challenge, especially low energy cooling

• Using historic climate data must be complemented by considering the future

Impacts on individual buildings

© s

tock

.xch

an

g

Impacts on: utilities and infrastructure

Enhanced specification of transport infrastructure

• rail

• harbours and docks

• road

Enhanced specification of utilities

• water supply

• water storage

• drainage

• electricity and gas

All linked to demand for ‘green’ technology

Impacts on: urban design

• design at neighbourhood scale is potentially as important as the design of individual buildings

• develop new urban and settlement forms in response to anticipated climate conditions

• possible tensions arise from high-density development (especially in urban heat island)

• challenge of adapting existing urban spaces, streets etc which were originally designed to let in the sunlight.

• Significant opportunities for anticipating new weather conditions in re-generation projects

Materials affected by climate change

• Concrete: strength affected by curing at higher temperatures

• Lime mortar, stone: affected by increased CO2 and driving rain

• MDF/Chipboard: not to be used where flooding is expected

• Plastics: affected by increased UV

• Bricks: strength affected by change in moisture content

• Roofing felt: increased UV is likely to accelerate degradation

TRCCG 2005

Considerations

• The climate and weather act differently on different stages of the construction cycle.

• There are significant differences in the projected weather and climate according to location within the UK.

• The changes in weather and climate present opportunities as well as threats.

• There are different issues to be dealt with in considering new build and retrofit.

Further considerations

• Delay to construction programmes

• Poorer internal environment (mould)

• Subsidence and heave

• Slope instability

• Damage to fabric of buildings, particularly cladding

• Structural damage from wind related events

• Effect on roof drainage

CIRIA 2005

• Redhill school: SUDS, large gutters, natural

ventilation

• NI Ireland Electricity: strengthened

infrastructure to be better able to deal with

floods and storms

• Inland Revenue Centre – Notts - Pre casting

concrete components so that site conditions

are less relevant during construction

• Portculis house – Large thermal mass led to

low energy ventilation system

• National Energy Centre – Milton Keynes –

Natural ventilation

• Met Office – Man made storage lake for run

off

Redhill school, Worcester

Adaptation Examples

Standards affected by climate change?

• BS 6399-2 (BS EN 1991-1-4 and its National Annex) Wind loading

• BS 6399-3 (BS EN 1991-1-3 & its National Annex)) Snow loading

• BS 8110-1 (BS EN 1992-1) Concrete – material

• BS 8007 (BS EN 1992-3) Concrete liquid retaining structures – material

• BS 5950-1 (BS EN 1993-1) Steel – material

• BS 5268-2 (BS EN 1995-1) Timber – material

• BS 5628-3 (BS EN 1996-2 & PD xxxx) Masonry – materials.

• BS 5930 Site investigation

• BS 8102 Basements

• BS 8004 (BS EN 1997-1) Foundations

• BS 8301 (BS EN 752) Drainage

Links to codes and standards

• ISO14001 – Add to list of aspects

• ISO9001 – Ability to maintain quality in the face of climate changes

• BS31100 – Add to the companies risk register

• BS25999 – Understand where climate risks become business critical

• Adaptation supplement pending

EPSRC funded programme: ARCCAdaptation & Resilience in a Changing Climate

• ARCC targeted at understanding climate change in the context of existing buildings and infrastructure systems, including transport and water resource systems in the urban environment.

• ARCC Coordination network – www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk

• Daniel Boyce co-ordinator at UKCIP

• Research projects (building on successes of BKCC) exploring the use of UKCP09 to support decisions within the built environmento Downpipe - building and property drainage (Lynn Jack – Heriot-Watt)

o COPSE - data for building designers (Geoff Levermore – Manchester)

o Low Carbon Futures - sizing HVAC plant and equipment (Phil Banfill – Heriot-Watt)

o PROMETHIUS – “future proofing” design decisions (David Coley – Exeter)

o PROCLIMATION - building environmental performance simulation (Vic Hanby – De Montfort)

UKCIP Adaptation Wizard

1. Past vulnerability

2. Identifying future risks3. Quantifying risks

4. Taking action

UKCIP Adaptation Wizard

For example:

Strategic solution

Temporary arrangement

Separate hazard from receptor

Technical fix

Change working practice

System for quick recovery

Actions for others

Building Adaptive Capacity

1. Create, gather or share information

e.g. research

2. Create supportive governance

e.g. standards

3. Create supportive organisational structure

e.g. partnerships

Delivering Adaptation Actions

1. Accept, spread or share loss

e.g. Insurance

2. Avoid or minimise negative impacts

3. Exploit positive opportunities

e.g. introduce new activity

BACLIAT Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool

1. markets

2. logistics

3. process

4. finance

5. people

6. premises

Leading to management responses

climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’

A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas

BACLIAT exercise

Weather/trend

• Hotter summers

• Wetter winters

• More extreme weather events

• More frequent heat waves

• More frequent flash flooding

• Sea levels rising

• Increasing storminess

Business areas

1. Markets

2. Logistics

3. Process

4. Finance

5. People

6. premises

Conclusions

• We are committed to some climate change.

• Direct physical impacts and changes to the business environment.

• Adapt to potential opportunities and threats.

• Climate change is a business risk, implement adaptation through existing business processes.

• To manage the risks and opportunities of the future climate, businesses need to know their current vulnerabilities.

• There are tools, resources and partnerships to help business.

www.ukcip.org.uk