Alex Moczarski

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Building in an uncertain future - Increasing your adaptive capacity to climate change Alex Moczarski, Project Officer (Business), UKCIP 18th November 2009
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  1. 1. Building in an uncertain future - Increasing your adaptive capacity to climate changeAlex Moczarski, Project Officer (Business), UKCIP 18th November 2009
  2. 2. Agenda
    • UKCIP
    • UKCP09
    • Business & climate change adaptation
    • Conclusions
  3. 3.
    • Focus : Promoting the tools and knowledge to help organisationsadaptto the impacts of climate change
    • We do this through:
      • Stakeholder-led research
      • Partnerships with business support and trade associations
      • Facilitated one to one programmes
      • Enabling capacity building to climate change
      • Set up in 1997 and majority funded by Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
      • Based at University of Oxford
    The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
  4. 4. UKCIP - a boundary organisation Connecting scientists, policy makers and decisions makers
  5. 5. UKCIP resources and support All tools free from www.ukcip.org.uk Support: Regional Partnerships Sectoral Partnerships Business Capacity Building LA Capacity Building
  6. 6. TRCCG adaptation publications Checklist for development Case study companion Good practice guidefor sustainablecommunities http://www.london.gov.uk/trccg/publications/
  7. 7. Climate change is unavoidable Determined by current & future emissions Predetermined, inevitable
  8. 8. The future?
    • What will it look like?
  9. 9. Newcastle?
  10. 11. Lincolnshire?
  11. 13. The Heatwave in Europe of 2003 Europe: 30,000 deaths attributed to the heat wave Forest fires and crop damage seriously impacted economyEconomic losses in excess of 7.5bn England (3-14/8/03): Excess mortality All ages:2091(17%) >75:1781(23%) Emergency hospital admissions (>75) 1490 (6%) Hadley Centre
  12. 14. Summer 2003 Heat wave could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s European summer temperatures Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre observations Medium-High emissions (modelled)
  13. 15. UK Climate Projections
    • Launched on 18 June 2009
    • A Unique Product
    • The worlds first publicly available probabilistic climate projections
    • Incorporates other global models
    • Information provided at different levels of detail
    • 25km resolution
    • AvailableFREEonline at:http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
  14. 16.
    • UK Climate Projections offer probabilistic climate projections
    • UKCIP02 said:
    • there will be this much change
    • UK Climate Projections says:
    • there is __% probability there will be this much change
    UK Climate Projections are probabilistic Amount of projected change 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability %
  15. 17. Many different formats 25km Administrative regions River basins Marine Storm surge Sub surface
  16. 18. Summer mean max temperature 2050s high emissions scenario 90% probability level: very unlikely to be greater than 50% probability level: central estimate10% probability level: very unlikely to be less than Change in summer mean maximum temperature (C) Spatial variations
  17. 19. Change in annual mean temperature (C) High emissions scenario 2020s 2050s 2080s 90% probability level: very unlikely to be greater than10% probability level: very unlikely to be less than50% probability level: central estimate Change in annual mean temperature (C)
  18. 20. Online supportUser Guidance
    • http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
  19. 21.
    • Trends
      • The UK will continue to get warmer
      • Summers will continue to get hotter and drier
      • Winters will continue to get milder and wetter
      • Sea levels will continue to rise
    • Extremes
      • More very hot days
      • Fewer very cold days
      • More frequent heavy winter precipitation
      • More frequent winter storms
    • The future can no longer be modelled on the past.
    Expected climate changes in the UK
  20. 22. From Climate Change to Business Consequences Trends Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours Sea level rise Events Heat waves Droughts Floods Fewer cold snaps Storms Consequences Loss of business continuity Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs Health/ comfort implications for employees Increased/ decreased productivity Changing markets Effect on reputation Impacts Damage to physical assets Loss of access to buildingsEffects on biological/ industrial processes Uncomfortable indoor environments Damage to critical infrastructureChanging lifestyles and consumer tastes Changing commodity prices/ availability
  21. 23. Why consider climate change? Climate Change Potential impacts on: Markets Logistics Process Finance People Premises Management response Potential impacts on: Your business assets and activities Reputational risk Health & safety risk Strategic risk Financial risk Operational risk Environmental risk
  22. 24. Adapting Built Structures
    • Three types of structures need adapting to climate change
    • New physical structures being designed for the new weather and climate conditions expected in 21 stCentury and beyond.
    • Existing physical structures which may need to be modified in the face of the new weather and climate conditions to which they will now be exposed.
    • Existing institutional and governance structures (Building Regulations, CIBSE Guides, Eurocodes, Codes for Sustainable Homes, etc) which need to adapt regulations, codes and standards to recognise the future changes in weather and climate.
  23. 25.
    • sustainable construction: link CC adaptation and mitigation agendas how can the demands of both be met?
    • building fabric: vulnerable to wind, rain, heat and sun
    • building structure: vulnerable to storm, heat, subsidence, flood
    • internal environment: less winter heating required, more summer cooling required but avoid a/c and emissions
    • existing buildings: retrofit represents a major challenge, especially low energy cooling
    • Using historic climate data must be complemented by considering the future
    Impacts on individual buildings stock.xchang
  24. 26. Impacts on: utilities and infrastructure
    • Enhanced specification of transport infrastructure
    • rail
    • harbours and docks
    • road
    • Enhanced specification of utilities
    • water supply
    • water storage
    • drainage
    • electricity and gas
    • All linked to demand for green technology
  25. 27. Impacts on: urban design
    • design at neighbourhood scale is potentially as important as the design of individual buildings
    • develop new urban and settlement forms in response to anticipated climate conditions
    • possible tensions arise from high-density development (especially in urban heat island)
    • challenge of adapting existing urban spaces, streets etc which were originally designed tolet in the sunlight.
    • Significant opportunities for anticipating new weather conditions in re-generation projects
  26. 28. Spatial Planning Projects
    • Spatial Planning not just important in its own right but increasingly important as legislation on the environmental performance of buildings is progressively included in planning legislation
    • eg Code for Sustainable Homes
    • UKCIP working with DCLG to include adaptation as part of Code
    • Other UKCIP work in this area includes:
    • Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution
    • Revisions to Planning Policy Statement 1 (PPS1)
    • GRABS (Green and Blue Spaces)
    • Eco Cities (Manchester City Council)
    • UKCIP/TCPA Conference (December 1 st2009)
  27. 29. Materials affected by climate change
    • Concrete: strength affected by curing at higher temperatures
    • Lime mortar, stone: affected by increased CO2 and driving rain
    • MDF/Chipboard: not to be used where flooding is expected
    • Plastics: affected by increased UV
    • Bricks: strength affected by change in moisture content
    • Roofing felt: increased UV is likely to accelerate degradation
    • TRCCG 2005
  28. 30. Considerations
    • The climate and weather act differently on different stages of the construction cycle.
    • There are significant differences in the projected weather and climate according to location within the UK.
    • The changes in weather and climate presentopportunities as well as threats.
    • There are different issues to be dealt with in considering new build and retrofit .
  29. 31. Further considerations
    • Delay to construction programmes
    • Poorer internal environment (mould)
    • Subsidence and heave
    • Slope instability
    • Damage to fabric of buildings, particularly cladding
    • Structural damage from wind related events
    • Effect on roof drainage
    • CIRIA 2005
  30. 32.
    • Redhill school: SUDS, large gutters, natural ventilation
    • NI Ireland Electricity: strengthened infrastructure to be better able to deal with floods and storms
    • Inland Revenue Centre Notts - Pre casting concrete components so that site conditions are less relevant during construction
    • Portculis house Large thermal mass led to low energy ventilation system
    • National Energy Centre Milton Keynes Natural ventilation
    • Met Office Man made storage lake for run off
    Redhill school, Worcester Adaptation Examples
  31. 33. Standards affected by climate change?
    • BS 6399-2 (BS EN 1991-1-4 and its National Annex) Wind loading
    • BS 6399-3 (BS EN 1991-1-3 & its National Annex)) Snow loading
    • BS 8110-1(BS EN 1992-1) Concrete material
    • BS 8007 (BS EN 1992-3) Concrete liquid retaining structures material
    • BS 5950-1 (BS EN 1993-1) Steel material
    • BS 5268-2 (BS EN 1995-1) Timber material
    • BS 5628-3 (BS EN 1996-2 & PD xxxx) Masonry materials.
    • BS 5930 Site investigation
    • BS 8102 Basements
    • BS 8004 (BS EN 1997-1) Foundations
    • BS 8301 (BS EN 752) Drainage
  32. 34. Links to codes and standards
    • ISO14001 Add to list of aspects
    • ISO9001 Ability to maintain quality in the face of climate changes
    • BS31100 Add to the companies risk register
    • BS25999 Understand where climate risks become business critical
    • Adaptation supplement pending
  33. 35. EPSRC funded programme: ARCC Adaptation & Resilience in a Changing Climate
    • ARCC targeted at understanding climate change in the context of existing buildings and infrastructure systems, including transport and water resource systems in the urban environment.
    • ARCC Coordination network www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk
    • Daniel Boyce co-ordinator at UKCIP
    • Research projects (building on successes of BKCC) exploring the use of UKCP09 to support decisions within the built environment
      • Downpipe - building and property drainage (Lynn Jack Heriot-Watt)
      • COPSE - data for building designers (Geoff Levermore Manchester)
      • Low Carbon Futures - sizing HVAC plant and equipment(Phil Banfill Heriot-Watt)
      • PROMETHIUS future proofing design decisions (David Coley Exeter)
      • PROCLIMATION - building environmental performance simulation (Vic Hanby De Montfort)
  34. 36. UKCIP Adaptation Wizard 1. Past vulnerability 2. Identifying future risks 3. Quantifying risks 4. Taking action
  35. 37. UKCIP Adaptation Wizard For example: Strategic solution Temporary arrangement Separate hazard from receptor Technical fix Change working practice System for quick recovery Actions for others
    • Building
    • Adaptive Capacity
    • Create, gather or share information
      • e.g. research
    • Create supportive governance
      • e.g. standards
    • Create supportive organisational structure
      • e.g. partnerships
    • Delivering Adaptation Actions
    • Accept, spread or share loss
      • e.g. Insurance
    • Avoid or minimise negative impacts
    • Exploit positive opportunities
      • e.g. introduce new activity
  36. 38. BACLIAT Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
    • markets
    • logistics
    • process
    • finance
    • people
    • premises
    • Leading to management responses
    climate change provides both challenge and opportunity A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas
  37. 39. BACLIAT exercise
    • Weather/trend
    • Hotter summers
    • Wetter winters
    • More extreme weather events
    • More frequent heat waves
    • More frequent flash flooding
    • Sea levels rising
    • Increasing storminess
    • Business areas
    • Markets
    • Logistics
    • Process
    • Finance
    • People
    • premises
  38. 40. Conclusions
    • We are committed to some climate change.
    • Direct physical impacts and changes to the business environment.
    • Adapt to potential opportunities and threats.
    • Climate change is a business risk, implement adaptation through existing business processes.
    • To manage the risks and opportunities of the future climate, businesses need to know their current vulnerabilities.
    • There are tools, resources and partnerships to help business.
  39. 41. www.ukcip.org.uk