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Comminution process optimisationthrough reliability and maintainability
modelling and simulation
Alessio Arata
Esteban Heidke
Adolfo ArataFredy Kristjanpoller
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Paper motivation
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An integral engineering approach
ENGINEERING SHOULD BE INTEGRATED WITH OPERATIONS, SINCE LIMITING THE
FOCUS ON THE FORMER HINDERS THE EFFICIENCY OF THE LATTER
OPTIMIZING INVESTMENTS EARLY DURING PROJECT DEVELOPMENT IS MORE
PROFITABLE AND EFFECTIVE
THE EVALUATION OF AN INVESTMENT PROJECT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
ENTIRE ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
THE TRADE-OFFS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY FINANCIAL TOOLS USING THE COST
BENEFIT CRITERIA
ENGINEERING SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY PROBABILISTIC TOOLS THAT ENABLES
THE RISKS TO BE QUANTIFIED
ENGINEERING SHOULD HAVE A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH CAPABLE OF IDENTIFYING
CRITICALITIES AT THE MICRO LEVEL (EQUIPMENT) TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS AT AMACRO LEVEL (BUSINESS)
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING IS THE TOOL WHICH PUTS INTO PRACTICE PROJECT
ANALYSIS FROM AN LCC PERSPECTIVE
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Objective
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The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology, using RAM modelling and a
simulation of the processes to enable projects to be appraised and optimised in their
feasibility study phase. Thus, a Life Cycle Cost approach will be used to evaluate the effect ofchanges on the flow sheet and the capacity of equipment and storage systems in order to
assess the business impact of proposed modifications and select the best combination, taking
into account expected production and required investment.
Paper objective
In a comminution process:
a) Identify critical and bottleneck equipment.
b) Determine the optimal capacity of storage systems (stockpiles, bins).
c) Indentify improvement opportunities with impact on the production level.
d) Identify saving opportunities.
e) Determine the risk and certain level in achieving the target values.f) Evaluate the different improvement scenarios.
g) Identify through optimisation the best combination of improvements that maximizes NPV.
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Reduction in investment costs
Low redundancy
Less reliable and maintainable equipment
Limited design capacity
Reduction in failure cost and operating costs
Increased availability (greater redundancy and reliability)
Improved asset management
Efficient management of third parties and spare parts
Cost
Investment
Operating andfailure costs
Total Cost
Reliability engineering in life cycle cost analysis (LCC)
investment (CAPEX)
global operating cost
(OPEX)
Failure cost in the project Life Cycle Cost (LCC)
failure cost
Optimum
Level of reliabilityand maintainability
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Some general concepts
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RBD Modelling
Serie
Paralelo
Stand-by
Redundancia
parcial
Fraccionamiento
L
ogical-functional
configurations
Serie
Parallel
Stand-by
k/n
Share
load
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Stockpile and bins modelling
Stockpilesim
ulation
Availability downstream
upstream downstream
Q stockpile and availability downstream
Stockpile
upstream UP; q stockpile > 0 --> downstream UP
upstream DOWN; q stockpile > 0 --> downstream UP
upstream DOWN; q stockpile = 0 --> downstream DOWN
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General methodology
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RAM otimisation in the engineering process
RAM approachDiseo de PDF
Mass and energybalance
Nominal sizing of
processes
Preliminary
equipment list
RAM simulation of
processes
Criticity and sensivity analysis
Optimisation to determine
best combination of cases
that maximase NPV
Identification of improvement
and saving opportunities
Estimate of the
expected procuction
Equipment capacity
Idle capacity
Stock-pile and bins capacity
LCC valuation of
cases
(capex, opex y prod.)
Optimal alternative
Iterationof cases
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Processsurvey
Obtaining andvalidating shutdowndata
Logical-functionalconfiguration ofthe process
RAM analysis Equipment
Capacities
Process flow-sheet
Design criteria
Process flows
Redundancies
Logical-functional modeling of the system and
validating the configuration
Behavior of the process in the face of faultsand shutdowns of equipment and sub-systems
Incidence of stock-piles in the process
Simulation of production, reliability,
maintainability and availability of the
base and improved cases
Monte Carlo and risk simulation
Optimum dimensioning of stock-piles Identification of opportunities for
improvement under the LCC approach
Criteria of experts / engineering In-put from vendors
Historical data for maintenance
and production
Understanding
Benchmarking
ModelingSimulation
LCC Valuation
LCC evaluation of scenarios
Simulation and optimization to identify the best
combination of improvement opportunities
LCC prioritization of alternatives
Optimization toselect the bestscenario
Engineering design optimisation stages
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Development and main results
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Process understanding and data
General process diagram
74 pieces of equipment, 8732 notices: operational unplanned detentions, unplanned
maintenance interventions, planned maintenance interventions.
Summary of historical information of detentions
Date Time [hr] Duration [hr] Type Equipment
01-01-2010 11:38 5.35 MCM EQUIPMENT-1
01-01-2010 11:45 4.2 DO EQUIPMENT-2
06-01-2010 6:18 40.6 MP EQUIPMENT-3
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Process understanding
Cap. Carga viva: 100.000 [t]Cap. Carga viva: 100.000 [t]
Cap. Carga viva: 80.000 [t]
Cap. Carga viva: 80.000 [t]
(3)
(3)
(3)
(2)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(6)
(1)
(6)
(3)
(6)
(1)
(10) (10)
(1)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(6)
(6)
(*) # Pieces of Equipment
A
B
F
C
E
D
GH
I
J
K
L
N
MX Mass Flow
Process flow-sheet diagram
Equipment #
Primary crusher 3
Secondary crusher 6
HPGR 6
Ball mill 5
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Modelling
Grinding
Feeder
Screen
Pump
Hydrocyclone
S
F S
S
S
S
F S
S
S
S
F S
S
S
S
F S
S
S
S
F S
S
S
F
S
Grinding
Conveyor belt
Mill
S
F
Serie
Share load
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Processes results
Secondary crusher availability
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Criticity analysis
ndice Equipo1 Correa Sp L2
2 Correa Recir. 23 Feeder 6
4 Correa 6
5 Harnero 6
6 Feeder 4
7 Correa 4
8 Harnero 4
9 Feeder 510 Correa 5
11 Harnero 6
12 Correa Sp L113 Correa Recir. 1
14 Feeder 1
15 Correa 1
16 Harnero 117 Feeder 2
18 Harnero 2
19 Correa 2
20 Feeder 3
21 Correa 3
22 Harnero 3
23 Correa a Chancadores
24 Chancador 1
25 Chancador 226 Chancador3
27 Chancador4
28 Chancador5
29 Chancador6
30 Co rrea material chancado
LeyendaGrfico de criticidad
Identification of critical equipment
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Improvement opportunities tertiary crusher
98,4%
98,8%
99,2%
0 50 100 150
-
Incorporation of idle capacity in
the HPGR crusher, from 51.82%to 65% each.
Incorporation of a conveyor
belt to the discharge of
material over the downstreamstockpile, parallel to the
existing one.
Improvement 2 & 3.
A
vailability
Corrected
utilization
Improvement 1Base Situation Improvement 3Improvement 2
95,5%
96,5%
97,5%
98,5%
0 50 100 150
98,5%
99,0%
99,5%
100,0%
0 40 80 120
96,0%
97,0%
98,0%
99,0%
0 40 80 120
98,5%
98,7%
98,9%
99,1%
99,3%
99,5%
0 40 80 120
96,0%
97,0%
98,0%
99,0%
0 40 80 120
98,5%
99,0%
99,5%
100,0%
0 40 80 120
96,5%
97,5%
98,5%
99,5%
0 40 80 120
Av
ailability
Utiliz
ation
Base case Improved case 1 Improved case 2 Improved case 3
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Illustrative results
Process availability for different alternatives
99,87% 99,79% 99,88%
99,89%99,91% 99,87% 99,75% 99,84%
98,00% 98,20% 97,86%98,41%
98,84%
97,95%97,94% 97,97%
99,26%99,44% 99,24%
99,47%99,47% 99,21%
98,65%98,75%
94,61%
91,84%
94,61%
95,49%
93,85%
96,40% 96,40%
91,00%
94,00%
97,00%
100,00%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Availability[%]
Alternatives
Ch. Primario Ch. Secundario
Ch. Terciario MoliendaGrinding
Secondary Cr.
Tertiary Cr.
Primary Cr.
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Main results and conclusions
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Main results
Resumen de capital fijo para las distintas situaciones por etapa
Price of Cu conc.
ProcessesScenario
Stockpile
CapacityScenario
Stockpile
CapacityScenario
Stockpile
CapacityScenario
Stockpile
CapacityScenario
Stockpile
CapacityScenario
Stockpile
Capacity
Primary Cr. Base 50.000 Base 50.000 Base 50.000 Base 50.000 Imp. 1 50.000 Imp. 1 50.000
Secondary Cr. Imp. 3 10.000 Imp. 3 10.000 Imp. 3 20.000 Imp. 3 10.000 Imp. 3 20.000 Imp. 3 40.000
Tertiary Cr. Base 10.000 Base 10.000 Base 10.000 Imp. 2 20.000 Base 10.000 Base 10.000
Grinding Imp. 4.b - Imp. 4.b - Imp. 4.b - Imp. 4.a - Imp. 4.b - Imp. 4.b -
1,5 [US$/lb] 2,0 [US$/lb] 2,5 [US$/lb] 3,0 [US$/lb] 3,4 [US$/lb]2,5 [US$/lb] *
Price of Cu.
Concentrate
Systemic
Corrected
Utilization
CAPEX
[bUS$]
OPEX
[bUS$]
Annual
estimated
sales
[bUS$]
NPV
[bUS$]
Annual
estimated
sales
[bUS$]
NPV
[bUS$]
NPV increase
over the base
case
CAPEX
decrease of
project over
the base case
Cash flowsincrease over
the base case
(in present
value)
1,5 [US$/lb] 91,75% 1,98$ 0,67$ 1,23$ 0,18-$ 1,09$ 1,05-$ 0,87$ 0,13$ 0,74$
2,0 [US$/lb] 91,75% 1,98$ 0,67$ 1,64$ 2,81$ 1,45$ 1,60$ 1,21$ 0,13$ 1,08$
2,5 [US$/lb] 92,00% 1,99$ 0,67$ 2,06$ 5,81$ 1,82$ 4,25$ 1,56$ 0,12$ 1,45$
2,5 [US$/lb] * 90,91% 1,98$ 0,66$ 2,03$ 5,68$ 1,82$ 4,25$ 1,43$ 0,12$ 1,31$
3,0 [US$/lb] 92,11% 2,00$ 0,67$ 2,47$ 8,80$ 2,18$ 6,89$ 1,91$ 0,11$ 1,80$
3,4 [US$/lb] 92,33% 2,02$ 0,67$ 2,81$ 11,21$ 2,47$ 9,01$ 2,20$ 0,09$ 2,11$
Optimized Cases Base Cases
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Conclusions
This paper proposes a methodology for optimising processes through
reliability engineering using a LCC (Life Cycle Cost) perspective, which enables the
effect on expected production of a change in the processes reliability to be
quantified and the best combination of improvements considering the increase or
decrease in capex involved in each new scenario to be determined.
Thus it incorporates a new decision variable to enable the profitability of anew investment project to be maximized.
In this case in particular, for an assumed copper concentrate price of
US$2.5/lb, the methodology enables net increases in NPV of up to US$1.6 billion,
including US$117 million due to decreased CAPEX and US$1.4 billion due toincreased production over the life of the project, estimated at 25 years.
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Comminution process optimisationthrough reliability and maintainability
modelling and simulation
Alessio Arata
Esteban Heidke
Adolfo ArataFredy Kristjanpoller
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Appendixes
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R-MES
EXCEL
CRYSTALBALL
Historical data ofdetentions of equipment
Design and operationcriteria
Flowchart of ProcessModelling the processes
RAM simulationof the base
situation
Get the RAMindicators of the
process
Sensitivity the indicators basedon the stockpiles capacity
Identify thecritical
equipment
Incorporating theimprovementopportunities
RAM simulation ofthe improvement
scenarios
How?Sw R-MES
Expertcritera
Is it necessary to
improve a new case?(Expert criteria)
Yes
Summary RAM indicators of theprocesses (base and improved)
No
CAPEX, OPEX andWilliams index of equipment
Flowcharts of all cases(base and improved)
Valuing the flowcharts(CAPEX of the baseand improved cases)
Economic andenvironment variables
Generate all possible combinationsbetween process stages
LCC Evaluatingscenarios combined
Identify the combinations thatmaximize the business benefits
Detailed methodology
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Escalamiento
Proceso Slido
Costo directo
Equipos de proceso sin instalar 100%Costo de instalacin 45%
Instrumentacin 9%
Caerias 16%
Instalacin elctrica 10%
Edificis 25%
Urbanizacin 13%
Instalaciones auxliares 40%
Terreno 6%
Total Costo directo 264%
Costo indirecto
Ingeniera y Supervicin 33%
Gastos de construccin 39%
Total Costo indirecto 72%
Total Costos directos e indirectos 336%
Utilidad contratistas 17%
Contingencias 34%
Total Capital Fijo 387%
Se llama economa de escala al procesomediante los costos unitarios de
produccin disminuyen al aumentar la
cantidad de unidades producida
Mtodod
eLang
Escalamiento de Williams
l
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Valuation parameters
Variable Cantidad Unidad Ley del mineral 0,58% [Cu/material]
Tiempo de operacin anual 365 das
Horizonte de evaluacin 25 aos
Costos operacionales 0,55$ [US$/lb concentrado de Cu]
Costos fijos 215.000.000,00$ [US$/ao]
Tasa de retorno 10% -
Costo de acopio de material 1.000,00$ [US$/t acopiada de carga viva]Capital de trabajo 810.000.000,00$ [US$]
Depreciacin lineal 10 [aos]
Capacidad instalada 191.520 [T material promedio diario]
Variable Cantidad Unidad
Precio del concentrado de Cobre 3,40$ [US$/lb concentrado de Cu]
Impuesto a la renta 17% -
Impuesto especifico: Royalty 5% -
Impuesto por retiro de utilidades 18% -
Variables econmicas a considerar para la evaluacin LCC
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A por proceso para distintos casos combinados
95,88%
97,87%
96,39%97,14%
88,26%
96,78%
99,93%
97,47%
99,19%
98,03%
98,80%
95,24%
88,00%
89,50%
91,00%
92,50%
94,00%
95,50%
97,00%
98,50%
100,00%
Primario Primario +
Stockpile
Secundario Secundario +
Stockpile
Terciario Terciario +
Stockpile
Molienda
Disponibilid
adAcumulada[%]
Proceso
Caso Base
Caso mejorado 1
Base case
Improved case
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Comminution process optimisationthrough reliability and maintainability
modelling and simulation
Alessio Arata
Esteban Heidke
Adolfo ArataFredy Kristjanpoller