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Mismatch of supply & demand of spare partsof appliances.Decrease of Order fill rate.

Use of appropriate Forecasting tool.Unavailability of Real time Sales data.

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Aim- Evaluation of projection & forecastingof defective spare part consumption.Objective - To determine the requirement of spare parts of four products i.e. Refrigerator,Washing Machine, Television, Air conditionerfor the remaining year of 2011 thus reducingthe gap between actual consumption and

projected consumption.

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Identify : The purpose of theForecast The time horizon

The type of data needed

Develop the ForecastingLogic : Establish model parameters Build the model

Test model Adequacyusing historical data

Identify a Suitable Technique : Collect/ Analyse past data Select an appropriate model

Start

Stop Satisfactory

No

Yes

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Gathered past consumption trend and salesdata form ERP & collating it in to an excelsheet.Extracted the useable data using pivot table

followed by analyzing and sorting itaccording to part code, category, partdescription and month of five important partsbased upon consumption.

Trend analysis of part consumption of 2010and 2011(up to march).Forecasting for the part to be consumed in

2011 by using Time series method.

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Pivot table.Trend Analysis.Time series method.

Histogram.

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Four components of a time series: trend,seasonality, cyclical & random should beincorporated.Implementation of SPSS Forecasting software.Calculate FE, SFE, MAD, MAPE, MSE.Use of Tracking Signal.Forecasting Model should be selected based

on cost, data availability, time horizon &External Information.

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Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2 [|Error|/Actual] *100

1 7 8 -1 1 1 14.28%

2 23 23 0 0 0 -

3 30 26 4 4 16 13.33%

Total 60 57 3 5 17 27.61%

MAD= |Error|/n= 5/3= 1.66

MSE= (Error)2/n -1= 17/2= 8.5

MAPE= [|Error|*100/Actual] / n= 27/3= 9.20%

Tracking signal = ( Actual Forecast)/ MAD=60-57/1.66= 1.80

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The project gave me the viewpoint on how toselect a Forecasting model.Understanding of trend analysis inForecasting and its importance in FMCDindustry.How to incorporate managerialconsiderations in using the Forecasting

system.Got hands on working experience with highlevel management of Warehouse.

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A sophisticated forecasting system is notenough, managers must use the forecastsobtained from the system in context of external information.

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Thank You