Alcohol Consumption Allyson Cady Dave Klotz Brandon DeMille Chris Ross.
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
223 -
download
2
Transcript of Alcohol Consumption Allyson Cady Dave Klotz Brandon DeMille Chris Ross.
Alcohol Consumption
Allyson CadyDave KlotzBrandon DeMilleChris Ross
Data
• Total alcohol– Beer– Wine– Spirits
• Yearly data, from 1935-1999• Gallons of ethanol consumption,
per capita
Alcohol Consumption
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
ALLALCOHOLBEER
WINESPIRITS
Prohibition ended in 1935
Why alcohol consumption?
• Big industry with big money (approx. $70 billion in 1997, an increase of 17% from 5 years prior)
• Health issues• Drunk driving and other alcohol related deaths• We are college students• We recently went through a period of war
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
ALLALCOHOLBEER
WINESPIRITS
WWII Vietnam Persian Gulf
War-time Drinking
War-time Dummy
• Originally, we were planning to include a dummy variable to capture a wartime/non-wartime trend
• Although this kind of variable is useful in explaining the past, it doesn’t help with forecasting
• The dummy variable was left out of all models
Data is evolutionary
• To get rid of the evolutionary properties,– Take log– First differenceResults in percentage change in each period
After doing this, the data becomes much more stationary
Modeling
• First attempts used ARMA techniques, but found that MA processes worked better
• Similar model found for all data sets
Model- Total Alcohol
Dependent Variable: DLNALLALCMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/26/03 Time: 19:26Sample(adjusted): 1935 1999Included observations: 65 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 30 iterationsBackcast: 1923 1934Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.012423 0.007874 1.577789 0.1199MA(1) 0.202583 0.102955 1.967686 0.0537MA(4) 0.200271 0.038070 5.260578 0.0000MA(9) 0.532056 0.038013 13.99652 0.0000MA(12) -0.367795 0.077569 -4.741518 0.0000R-squared 0.480532 Mean dependent var 0.012668Adjusted R-squared 0.445900 S.D. dependent var 0.054615S.E. of regression 0.040654 Akaike info criterion -3.493621Sum squared resid 0.099166 Schwarz criterion -3.326361Log likelihood 118.5427 F-statistic 13.87567Durbin-Watson stat 1.510219 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Inverted MA Roots .83 -.42i .83+.42i .79 .50 -.86i
.50+.86i -.10 -.91i -.10+.91i -.43+.70i -.43 -.70i -.80+.57i -.80 -.57i -.99
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Residual Actual Fitted
Model- Total Alcohol
Model- BeerDependent Variable: DLNBEERMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/26/03 Time: 19:33Sample(adjusted): 1935 1999Included observations: 65 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 12 iterationsBackcast: 1922 1934Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.010879 0.005165 2.106321 0.0393MA(1) 0.338015 0.057139 5.915627 0.0000MA(8) 0.482068 0.073578 6.551768 0.0000MA(13) -0.346007 0.000297 -1163.471 0.0000R-squared 0.559543 Mean dependent var 0.011038Adjusted R-squared 0.537881 S.D. dependent var 0.042006S.E. of regression 0.028555 Akaike info criterion -4.214377Sum squared resid 0.049740 Schwarz criterion -4.080568Log likelihood 140.9672 F-statistic 25.83085Durbin-Watson stat 1.867790 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Inverted MA Roots .85 -.42i .85+.42i .84 .44+.78i
.44 -.78i .14+.88i .14 -.88i -.39+.91i -.39 -.91i -.68 -.54i -.68+.54i -.95 -.29i
-.95+.29i
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Residual Actual Fitted
Model- Beer
Model- SpiritsDependent Variable: DLNSPMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/26/03 Time: 19:46Sample(adjusted): 1935 1999Included observations: 65 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 16 iterationsBackcast: 1923 1934Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.011952 0.013801 0.865997 0.3899MA(1) 0.210494 0.039468 5.333299 0.0000MA(4) 0.361197 0.051499 7.013642 0.0000MA(9) 0.456485 0.067899 6.723014 0.0000MA(12) -0.349441 0.096900 -3.606184 0.0006R-squared 0.529189 Mean dependent var 0.012178Adjusted R-squared 0.497802 S.D. dependent var 0.093814S.E. of regression 0.066482 Akaike info criterion -2.509955Sum squared resid 0.265195 Schwarz criterion -2.342694Log likelihood 86.57354 F-statistic 16.85995Durbin-Watson stat 1.560509 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Inverted MA Roots .82+.44i .82 -.44i .79 .51+.85i
.51 -.85i -.09 -.89i -.09+.89i -.46 -.70i -.46+.70i -.80+.58i -.80 -.58i -.96
Model- Spirits
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Residual Actual Fitted
Model- WineDependent Variable: DLNWINEMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/26/03 Time: 19:50Sample(adjusted): 1935 1999Included observations: 65 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 20 iterationsBackcast: 1924 1934Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.022948 0.013878 1.653610 0.1033MA(4) 0.711925 0.000400 1781.703 0.0000MA(11) -0.257302 0.057245 -4.494751 0.0000
R-squared 0.439531 Mean dependent var 0.023382Adjusted R-squared 0.421451 S.D. dependent var 0.100067S.E. of regression 0.076113 Akaike info criterion -2.268129Sum squared resid 0.359182 Schwarz criterion -2.167772Log likelihood 76.71418 F-statistic 24.31080Durbin-Watson stat 2.309783 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Inverted MA Roots .81 .75 -.59i .75+.59i .45 -.76i
.45+.76i -.15 -.80i -.15+.80i -.67+.73i -.67 -.73i -.78 -.30i -.78+.30i
Model- Wine
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Residual Actual Fitted
Summary of Models
• Total Alcohol:
C, MA(1), MA(4), MA(9), MA(12)• Beer:
C, MA(1), MA(8), MA(13)• Spirits:
C, MA(1), MA(4), MA(9), MA(12)• Wine:
C, MA(4), MA(11)
Forecast- All alcohol
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
ALLTIMETOTAL
Forecast- Beer
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
ALLTIMEBEER
Forecast- Spirits
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
ALLTIMESPIRITS
Forecast- Wine
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
ALLTIMEWINE
Forecasts in Gallons per Capita
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10
ALLALCOHOLBEER
SPIRITSWINE
Forecast Results
• All forecasts show a similar pattern, with gradual increases expected in the future
1999 Consumption 2010 Forecast Expected Change Expected Percent Change
Total 2.21 gallons 2.52 gallons 0.31 gallons 14.0%
Beer 1.25 1.40 0.15 12.0%
Spirits 0.64 0.73 0.09 14.1%
Wine 0.32 0.44 0.12 37.5%
Conclusions• Americans are expected to increase their
alcohol consumption by 14% over the period from 1999 to 2010– Wine is expected to see the largest percentage
increase– Beer is expected to see the largest absolute
increase
• Increased consumption could lead to more difficulties with drunk driving, health issues, etc.– Awareness will become increasingly critical in
the near future
The End