Alberto Alberto AlfonzoAlfonzo

Tugberk ‘TT’Tugberk ‘TT’TanrisevdirTanrisevdir

This study examines what determines success in the

Africa Cup of Nations from a macroeconomic

perspective.

• Continental soccer tournament

in Africa

• First tournament in 1957

•Organized in every 2 years

•Winner goes to FIFA

Confederations Cup

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY• Sources: WDI, Penn World Table, and CAF’s webpage

• We created different new variables to control for the results of the tournaments: Champion, Second Place, Third Place,

and Fourth Place

• We test our hypothesis trough a series of different methods: Regressions Mean Comparison tests, and Fixed-Effect tests.

• For another approach to the study of our hypotheses, we excluded Egypt in a fixed-effect test as it seems the Egypt is

an outlier to our theory.

v.s.v.s.

• Both in Asia

• Close Number of

Populations:

China: 1,351 billion*

India: 1,237 billion*

*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.

CHINA: $6,188*

INDIA: $1,489*

Children Malnutrition

Health Care Sports Investment

and Facilities

Better Education

*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.

• If China has the highest population on Earth, why doesn’t China take 1st place in every Olympics?

*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.

• If GDP Per Capita has a positive effect on winning a medal, why aren’t Luxembourg, Norway, and Switzerland –the top three countries by GDP Per Capita* dominant forces in the

Olympics?

HOME ADVANTAGEHOME ADVANTAGE

POPULATIONPOPULATION

CHANCE OF CHANCE OF HAVING HAVING

SPORTSMENSPORTSMEN

Inadequate resources means that a country cannot use its human

power

GDP Per Capita is an indicator of sports investment

*Data are taken from ESPN’s 2008 information.

Alabama University Crimson Tide Football Team played 14 games in 2008 and these 14 games costed them

$3,580,868*

*Information is taken from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/ncaa/revenue/_/type/expenses

These data are taken from Tucker’s video on Euronews webpage and interpreted into a different graph format

Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists

host 0.383 0.384 0.464 0.456 (9.03)*** (6.45)*** (6.53)*** (6.29)*** rgdplinthousands 0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.006 (0.26) (0.56) (1.03) (1.16) populationinmillions 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 (0.37) (0.44) (1.54) (1.09) urbanpopulationinmillions -0.000 0.001 0.007 0.005 (0.07) (0.38) (2.01)** (1.52) _cons 0.024 0.086 0.130 0.136 (1.66)* (4.28)*** (5.43)*** (5.60)*** R2 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.08 N 505 505 505 505

Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists

host 0.366 0.355 0.443 0.436 (8.62)*** (6.05)*** (6.57)*** (6.28)*** rgdplinthousands 0.036 0.020 -0.003 -0.004 (2.54)** (0.99) (0.12) (0.19) populationinmillions -0.000 -0.000 -0.002 -0.002 (0.28) (0.17) (1.06) (0.78) urbanpopulationinmillions -0.000 -0.003 -0.001 -0.002 (0.15) (0.85) (0.19) (0.46) _cons -0.039 0.065 0.181 0.189 (1.16) (1.41) (3.38)*** (3.45)*** R2 0.15 0.08 0.10 0.09 N 505 505 505 505

Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists

host 0.356 0.362 0.415 0.407 (8.52)*** (5.91)*** (5.65)*** (5.40)*** rgdplinthousands -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.007 (0.54) (1.05) (1.30) (1.41) populationinmillions -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 (1.17) (1.43) (2.25)** (1.75)* urbanpopulationinmillions 0.003 0.004 0.009 0.008 (1.59) (1.43) (2.71)*** (2.18)** _cons 0.027 0.087 0.129 0.135 (2.01)** (4.48)*** (5.53)*** (5.67)*** R2 0.14 0.07 0.08 0.07 N 480 480 480 480

Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists

host 0.301 0.384 0.464 0.456 (6.87)*** (6.45)*** (6.53)*** (6.29)*** rgdplinthousands -0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.006 (0.36) (0.56) (1.03) (1.16) populationinmillions -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 (1.12) (0.44) (1.54) (1.09) urbanpopulationinmillions 0.003 0.001 0.007 0.005 (1.23) (0.38) (2.01)** (1.52) _cons 0.040 0.086 0.130 0.136 (2.69)*** (4.28)*** (5.43)*** (5.60)*** R2 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 N 505 505 505 505

• Home Advantage helps an African country win the Africa Cup of Nations

• Total Population does not improve the odds of winning the tournament, or reaching the semifinals

• Ambigious results with GDP Per Capita and Urban Population.