Alberta Labour Market Outlook - Open Government Program€¦ · Alberta’s Labour Market ......

Alberta LabourAlberta LabourAlberta Labour Alberta Labour Market OutlookMarket OutlookMarket OutlookMarket Outlook

Released March 2011

Factors AffectingAlberta’s Labour Market

• The pace of domestic and global economic recovery

Economic recovery in the United States (US)• Economic recovery in the United States (US)

• Value of the Canadian dollar

• Price of oil and natural gas

• Concerns about the environment and climate change

• Aging population

• Interprovincial and international net migrationp g

AlbertaComponents of Population Growth, 2005 - 2010Components of Population Growth, 2005 2010

Alberta's Population Growth by Component, 2005-2010

50,000

e

Natural Growth Net Interprovincial Net International

20,000

30,000

40,000

er o

f Peo

ple

0

10,000

20,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

Num

be

* Figures for 2010 are based on the first three quarters only

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Figures for 2010 are based on the first three quarters only

Data Source: Statistics Canada.

Prepared by: Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Economics, Demography and Public Finance, December 22, 2010

AlbertaWorking Age Population (WAP) by Age Group

25%

30%2000 WAP: 2,306,900

2010 WAP: 2,960,900

18.9% 19.1%

22.7%

17.3%18.8%17.9%

19.9%

17.4%20%

25%

of W

AP

10.0%

12.0%13.4% 12.6%

10%

15%

Per c

ent (

%) o

5%

P

0%15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Group

Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)

Canada and ProvincesLabour Force Participation Rates 2010Labour Force Participation Rates, 2010

67.9%64 2% 63 6% 65.4% 67.1% 65.5%69.6% 69.9% 72 9%60%

70%

80%

%)

Canada: 67.0%

59.9%64.2% 63.6% 72.9%

40%

50%

60%

atio

n Ra

te (%

10%

20%

30%

Par

ticip

a

0%NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

Province


AlbertaParticipation Rate by Age Group and Sex

200094 4%100%

2010%100%

MaleFemale

73.2%

94.4%

65.3%

79.1%

68.0%

81.0%

65.2%

60%

80%

100%

atio

n ra

te (%

)

70.3%

93.5%

69.0%

78.7%

68.0%

80.2%

55.5%

66.7%

60%

80%

100%

47.8%

20%

40%

60%

our

forc

e pa

rtici

pa

55.5%

20%

40%

60%

0%

20%

15-24 years 25-44 years 45+ years Albertans (15+ years)

Age Group

Labo

0%

15-24 years 25-44 years 45+ years Albertans (15+ years)

Age Groupg p


AlbertaLabour Force Statistics by Economic Region, 2010

Wood Buffalo – Cold Lake:Working Age Population: 99,900

Athabasca – Grande Prairie:Working Age Population: 189,800

Edmonton:

Labour Force: 79,300

Unemployment Rate: 5.0%



Jasper – Banff –Rocky Mountain House: Edmonton:

Working Age Population: 984,800



Rocky Mountain House:Working Age Population: 71,600



Camrose – Drumheller:Working Age Population: 155,500

Labour Force: 112 000

Red Deer:Working Age Population: 152,300

Labour Force: 110,700Labour Force: 112,000


Lethbridge – Medicine Hat:Working Age Population: 217 200


Calgary:Working Age Population: 1,089,800

Labo r Force 811 000 Working Age Population: 217,200






Employment by Industry, 2010Alberta

p y y y,

150 9

219.3

231.5

Professional Scientific and Technical Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Retail Trade

104.9

105.2

125.2

129.5

150.9

Transportation and Warehousing

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing

Accommodation and Food Services

Educational Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

74.5

77.0

86.9

98.4

Wholesale Trade

Information, Culture and Recreation

Public Administration

Other Services

Services-Producing sector: 1,476.4

124 6

140.2

206.5

72.9

M f t i

Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction

Construction

Business, Building and Other Support Services

3.4

18.4

47.1

124.6

Forestry and Logging with Support Activities

Utilities

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Number Employed (000's)

Goods-Producing sector: 540.2


Number Employed (000 s)

AlbertaChange in Employment by IndustryChange in Employment by Industry

2009 (000's)

2010 (000's) % Change

Change in Employment by Industry, 2009 - 2010

(000 s) (000 s) Total, all industries 2,025.2 2,016.6 -0.4% Goods-Producing Sector 537.2 540.2 0.6% Agriculture 53.7 47.1 -12.3% Forestry and Logging with Support Activities 3.1 3.4 9.7%Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 138 8 140 2 1 0% Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 138.8 140.2 1.0%

Utilities 21.3 18.4 -13.6% Construction 195.9 206.5 5.4% Manufacturing 124.5 124.6 0.1% Services-Producing Sector 1,487.9 1,476.4 -0.8%Wholesale Trade 77.6 74.5 -4.0% Wholesale Trade 77.6 74.5 4.0%

Retail Trade 231.6 231.5 0.0% Transportation and Warehousing 106.1 104.9 -1.1% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 111.9 105.2 -6.0% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 153.5 150.9 -1.7% Business, Building and Other Support Services 68.3 72.9 6.7%, g pp Educational Services 134.2 129.5 -3.5% Health Care and Social Assistance 202.0 219.3 8.6% Information, Culture and Recreation 80.9 77.0 -4.8% Accommodation and Food Services 129.3 125.2 -3.2% Other Services 102.3 98.4 -3.8%


Public Administration 90.3 86.9 -3.8%

AlbertaEmployment by Occupation, 2010p y y p ,

478.6Sales and service

162.5

354.4

373.2

Management

Business, finance and administrative

Trades, transport and equipment operators

156.5

157.9

162.5

Natural and applied sciences and related

Social science, education, government and religion

Management

60 4

106.7

122.0

U i t i f t i d tiliti

Unique to primary industry

Health

44.4

60.4

Art, culture, recreation and sport

Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities

Employed (000's)


AlbertaChange in Employment by Occupationg p y y p

2009 2010

Change in Employment by Occupation, 2009 - 20102009

(000's)2010

(000's) % Change

Total, all occupations 2,025.2 2,016.6 -0.4% Management occupations 163.1 162.5 -0.4% Business, finance and administrative occupations 358.6 354.4 -1.2% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 166.7 156.5 -6.1% Health occupations 111.0 122.0 9.9% Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 157.6 157.9 0.2% Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 45.4 44.4 -2.2% Sales and service occupations 481.3 478.6 -0.6%


Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 369.1 373.2 1.1% Occupations unique to primary industry 109.0 106.7 -2.1% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 63.3 60.4 -4.6%

AlbertaHistorical Unemployment, 2000 - 2010p y ,

142.1 140.7140 0160.0

s)

The unemployment

82.9 79.894.4 92.9 87.5

75.2 68.4 72.8 77.0

60 080.0

100.0120.0

140.0

oym

ent (

000'

s

levels in 2009 and 2010 were the highest since 1984

0.020.0

40.060.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unem

plohighest since 1984

when 145,400 people were unemployed 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Yearunemployed.


Canada and ProvincesUnemployment Rate, 2010p y ,

16%

14.4%

11 2%

12%

14%

te (%

)

11.2%

8.0%

6 5%7.6%

9.3%8.7%

9.3%

6%

8%

10%

ploy

men

t Rat

Canada = 8.0%

5.4% 5.2%6.5%

2%

4%

6%

Une

mp

0%NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

Province


Alberta’sUnemployment Rate, 2000 - 2010

Alberta’s average Unemployment rate Alberta 2000 - 2010

unemployment rate of 6.5% in 2010 was the third

Unemployment rate, Alberta, 2000 - 2010

5.0% 4.7%5.3% 5.1%

4.7%4.0%

3 5% 3 6%

6.6% 6.5%

5.0%6.0%7.0%

t Rat

e (%

)

2010 was the third lowest in the country, behind Saskatchewan’s

3.4% 3.5% 3.6%

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Saskatchewan’s 5.2% and Manitoba’s 5.4%.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

U


AlbertaUnemployment Rate by Industry, 2010

6.4%

6.6%8.3%

Information, Culture and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services


3.8%

4.3%4.6%

5.9%

6.4%

Transportation and Warehousing Other Services

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade


2.0%

2.9%3.0%

3.7%


Educational Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing


Services-ProducingSector: 4.3%

4 0%

6.0%

7.7%

N/A*


Manufacturing

Construction


4.0%

N/A*

N/A*N/A*

Agriculture

Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Utilities


Unemployment Rate (%)

Goods-ProducingSector: 5.8%


* N/A denotes data suppressed by Statistics Canada


AlbertaUnemployment Rate by Occupation, 2010

6 0%

6.9%

S l d i


5.2%

5.9%

6.0%



Sales and service

3.8%

3.9%

5.2%

Business, finance and administrative



2.7%

3.7%

Management


1.3%

2.2%

Health


U l R (%)



AlbertaAverage Hourly Wages, 2000 - 2010

• After increasing by over $1.00 annually from 2004 24

26

$1.00 annually from 2004 to 2009, Alberta’s average hourly wage rate increased by only 35 18

20

22

urly

Wag

e ($

)

cents in 2010 to $25.05.

• Alberta has had the highest average hourly 12

14

16

Ave

rage

Ho

highest average hourly wage rate in Canada since 2006.

102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year


AlbertaAverage Hourly Wage by Industry, 2010

$29.87

$31.45$31.66


Professional, Scientif ic and Technical Services


$21.82

$23.82

$25.35$25.87

Other Services




$13.89

$18.83$19.86

$21.76


Trade (Wholesale and Retail)


Information, Culture and RecreationServices-Producing sector: $23.57

$25 66

$27.33

$35.00

$38.33

Manufacturing

Construction

Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Oil and Gas

Utilities

Goods-Producing$17.50

$25.66

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Average Hourly Wage ($)

Goods Producing sector: $29.45


AlbertaAverage Hourly Wage by Occupation, 2010

$36.86

$37.82


Management

$26 81

$30.08

$30.10

$36.86



Health


$23 80

$24.36

$25.91

$26.81

Art culture recreation and sport




$16.53

$22.71

$23.80

Sales and service

Business, f inance and administrative


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Average Hourly Wage ($)


AlbertaEmployment, 1999-2013p y ,

From 2011 to 2013 the

Projected

22502010: 2,016,600

2013: 2,165,500

2013, the projected growth in the 1750

2000

nt (0

00's

)1999: 1,543,200

2005: 1,825,600

number of employed Albertans will 1250

1500

Empl

oym

en

be 148,900.1000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year

Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010),Alberta Modified Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) Outlook, 2009-2013, Industry Employment Outlook

AlbertaAverage Employment Growth by Industry, 2010-2013

2.9%3.2%

3.3%

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade


%2.7%

2.7%

2.8%

2.9%

2.9%

H l h C d S i l A i

Other Services




1.5%1.6%

1.7%

1.9%

2.2%






Services-Producing sector: 2.5%

1 4%1.5%

2.2%

2.4%


Forestry and Logging with Support Activities

Construction

Utilities

G1.4%

1.1%Agriculture

Manufacturing


Average Annual Employment Growth (%), 2010-2013

0.3%

Goods-Producing sector: 1.5%

Data Source: Alberta Modified COPS Outlook 2010-2013, Industry Employment Outlook

AlbertaOccupational Demand and Supply Outlook, 2009-2019

Shortages and SurplusesShortages and Surpluses

Demand Supply

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

Sup

ply

(000

s)

Demand Supply

1,800

1,900

2,000

Dem

and,

S

Demand 1,899 1,906 1,947 1,988 2,038 2,079 2,118 2,181 2,242 2,305 2,362

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: Demand/Supply less than 1 denotes surplus

D d/S l t th 1 d t h t

Demand 1,899 1,906 1,947 1,988 2,038 2,079 2,118 2,181 2,242 2,305 2,362

Supply 2,033 2,032 2,063 2,091 2,127 2,154 2,177 2,225 2,269 2,315 2,354

Demand/Supply 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00

Data Source: Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook 2009-2019

Demand/Supply greater than 1 denotes shortage

AlbertaTotal Employment Growth by Skill Level, 2010-2013

8%

4.8% 5.2%

6.2%6.5%

6.1%

5%

6%

7%

row

th (%

)

2%

3%

4%

oym

ent G

r

0%

1%

2%

U i it D C ll S d S h l O th j b T i i M t

Empl

University Degree College orApprenticeship

Secondary Schooland/or OccupationSpecif ic Training

On-the-job Training Management

Required Skill Level

Data Source: Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook, 2010-2020, Occupations by Skill

AlbertaEducational Attainment by Sex, 2010-2019

Male and Female Educational Attainment, 2010-2019

F l M l

30%

35%

Females Males

7% 5% 5.3%

0% 28.8

%

31.5

%

5.2% 29.9

%

.0%

5% .8%

8%

32.1

%

32.7

%

3.1%

25.9

%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20.7

18.5 25

20.0 2522.

20.5

22 20. 8 23 2

0%

5%

10%

Less Than High College University2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019

Less ThanHigh

School

HighSchool

Collegeand Trade

UniversityDegree

Data Source: Alberta’s Occupational Supply Outlook ModelNote: For more information, please refer to

Alberta’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills 2009-2019

Conclusion

• Alberta’s pace of economic recovery is expected to improve in 2011.

• It will still be dependent on improvements in world• It will still be dependent on improvements in world commodity prices, the pace of global economic recovery, particularly the US economic recovery, and the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.

• Unemployment levels will continue to decline this year.

• Labour supply pressures are expected to resurface for some pp y p poccupations in the medium and long term due to Alberta’s aging population.

• Investment in innovation and skills upgrading are key toInvestment in innovation and skills upgrading are key to finding employment in Alberta in the coming years.

• Medium to long term labour force planning should continue to ens re Alberta has the skilled labo r force it req ires into ensure Alberta has the skilled labour force it requires in the future.

For More Information on Departmental Initiatives and Web Sites of Interest . . .

• Alberta Employment and Immigration (Labour Market Information):

Web Sites of Interest . . .

http://employment.alberta.ca/lmi

• Alberta Learning Information Service:

www.alis.alberta.ca

• Canada-Alberta JOBS (Job Order Bank Service):

www.jobbank.gc.ca

• Statistics Canada:

www.statcan.gc.ca

• Alberta-Canada

albertacanada comwww.albertacanada.com

Alberta Labour Market Outlook - Open Government Program€¦ · Alberta’s Labour Market ......

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