Alberta Economic Outlook Q1 2016
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Transcript of Alberta Economic Outlook Q1 2016
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Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics & Research
January 2016
ALBERTA
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
Q1 2016
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-1.0 -0.5 1.6 2.0
0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5
6.0 7.2 6.3 5.9
1.2 -0.3 1.8 1.1
4.195 4.248 4.303 4.364
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sep'12 Sep'13 Sep'14 Sep'15
Alberta Canola and Wheat Prices
Source : Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 002-0043
$ p
e r m e t r i c t o n n e
canola
wheat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Nov'11 Nov'12 Nov'13 Nov'14 Nov'15
Livestock Prices, Alberta
d o l l a r s p e r h u n d r e d w e i g h t
Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table 002-0043
cattle
hogs
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Dec'07 Dec'09 Dec'11 Dec'13 Dec'15
North American Lumber Prices*
Source: Random Lengths
* - compos ite price is a weighted average of 15 key framing lumber prices
S p e r t h o u s a n d b o a r d f e e t
priced in $C
priced in $US
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Nov'12 Nov'13 Nov'14 Nov'15
Total Building Permits in Alberta
$ m i l l i o n s , s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
Source : Statistics Canada, The Daily, Jan. 8, 2016 and CANSIM table 026-0006
residential
non-
residential
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-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15
Change in Employment in Alberta
Sou rce: Sta tistics Canada, The Daily, Jan. 8, 2016 an d CANSIM table 282-0087
0 0 0 s ( s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d )
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15
Alberta Housing Starts
0 0 0 s ,
a l l a r e a s ,
S . A . A . R .
Source : CMHC, Jan. 11, 2016 and Statistics Canada CANSIM table 027-0054
ave: 201440,539 ave: 2015
37,528
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(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15
Alberta Average Weekly Earnings % Change
a n n u a l % c
h a n g e
Source: St atistics Canada, The Daily, Dec.2 2, 2015 and CANSIM table 281-0063
12-month
ave:0.9%
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15
Alberta Retail Sales
$ b i l l i o n s ( s e a s o n
a l l y a d j u s t e d )
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 23, 2015 and CANSIM table 080-0020
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4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15
Alberta Wholesale Trade
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 18, 2015 and CANSIM table 081-001 1
$ b
i l l i o n s ( s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d )
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15
Alberta Manufacturing Shipments
$
b i l l i o n s ( s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d )
Source : Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 15, 20 15, and CANSIM table 304-0015
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q3'08 Q3'09 Q3'10 Q3'11 Q3'12 Q3'13 Q3'14 Q3'15
Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Alberta
n e t i n t e r p r o v . m i g r a n t s
Source: St atisticsCa nada, The Daily, Dec. 16, 2015 and CANSIM table 051-0017
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