Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-118-Caliphate-vs-Regular...

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-118-Caliphate-vs-Regular Armies-26-4-Iraq

Iraqi troops, backed by US-led air strikes, have begun a major attack to drive the Islamic State extremist militia from its stronghold in the northern city of Mosul, an army spokesman says."We count on the operation that is currently being conducted by the Syrian army with Russian air support on liberating Palmyra to successfully conclude within the shortest time period," Lavrov told reporters after holding talks with his Italian counterpart Paolo Gentiloni, Sputnik reported. "Our common stance is that fulfilling the UN Security Council-approved measures on comprehensive Syrian crisis settlement should not mean reducing attention devoted to the fight against terrorism," he added.

Our mistake in Syria and Iraq today is precisely the same mistake we made in Afghanistan starting in 1979. We identified a worthy enemy, the Soviets, but didn’t realize that the ideology of our allies in that fight, the Islamic extremist Mujahideen, was contrary to our liberal democratic beliefs. The Mujahideen were therefore unreliable as allies, and turned on us after nine years when the Soviets ceased fighting and we stopped paying. Our allies and negotiation partners in Iraq and Syria, including the Baghdad and Tehran governments, the “moderate” rebels, and Kurds, have turned on each other. They are all seeking sectarian aims at each other’s expense. While our allies fight, we are increasingly embroiled in an unwinnable war of Islamic State’s (ISIS) and Al Qaeda’s choosing. Then ISIS beheaded three Westerners, starting with James Foley in the summer of 2014. The U.S media covered the killings in lurid detail, and they predictably outraged the public. Pressure built to “do something.” It did not matter that hundreds of thousands of NATO troops, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and trillions of obligated dollars had not won wars in Afghanistan and Iraq over an immediately prior decade of fighting.

But IS’ ghost will continue to exist in the region as a mentality “The loss of these two cities will likely lead to some IS members defecting back to al-Qaeda" as they realize that the latter was correct in predicting that IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed the IS caliphate prematurely, before IS was strong enough to sustain the territory. Syrian and Iraqi forces are bringing the fight to ISIS on Thursday, launching attacks on two cities controlled by the militant group that is also known as the Islamic State, ISIL, or Daesh. Syrian troops have entered Palmyra, an ancient town controlled by ISIS, according to Syrian state TV. Simultaneously, an Iraqi military spokesman says, the long-awaited military operation to recapture the northern city of Mosul from ISIS militants "has begun." It's unclear whether the two attacks are coordinated.

Jacob Zen of the Jamestown Foundation, which closely follows IS activities in the Middle East and Eurasia, says IS might make it to the end of 2016, but most likely only as a shadow of its current self.“I expect IS will be able to still hold out at Mosul and Raqqa in 2016, because the attention of international and Syrian counter-insurgency forces is primarily devoted to resolving other issues, such as in northwestern Syria, where Afrin province is hotly contested. But at some point in the near future — perhaps next year in 2017 — I expect that a range of international forces, and Iraqi and possibly also Syrian forces, will finally commit to removing IS from Raqqa and Mosul. At that time, I do not think IS will have the power to defend those cities, even if its militants are able to put up a strong defense,” he told Al-Monitor.

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

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“The loss of these two cities will likely lead to some IS members defecting back to al-Qaeda" as they realize that the latter was correct in predicting that

IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed the IS caliphate prematurely, before IS was strong enough to sustain the territory. Defectors might conclude that al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri's gradual approach "is the more effective way to create a sustainable caliphate,” he added. But if the post-IS reconstruction and political integration is not properly handled, an IS 2.0 could emerge and the entire world could pay heavily for it

"Operation Conquest. Iraq" March 24, BAGHDAD — The Iraqi military backed by U.S.-led coalition aircraft launched a long-awaited operation Thursday to recapture the northern city of Mosul from Islamic State militants, a military spokesman said.In the push, Iraqi forces retook several villages on the outskirts of the town of Makhmour, east of Mosul, early in the morning on Thursday and hoisted the Iraqi flag there, according to the spokesman for the Joint Military Command, Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasool.It was not immediately clear how long such a complex and taxing offensive would take. Only recently, Iraqi and U.S. officials refrained to give a specific time on when the Mosul operation could begin, saying it would take many months to prepare Iraq's still struggling military for the long-anticipated task of retaking the key city.Some U.S. and Iraqi officials have said it may not even be possible to retake it this year, despite repeated vows by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.Iraqi state-run TV interrupted its morning program Thursday with a series of news alerts announcing the operation and broadcasting patriotic songs and flag-waving video clips.Rasool told The Associated Press that the U.S.-led international coalition was providing air support but would not divulge more details on the offensive, which he said was dubbed "Operation Conquest." According to an official at the military's provincial Nineveh Operations Command, the aim of the first phase of the Mosul offensive was to clear the areas between Makmour and the adjacent Qayara area to the east of the Tigris River, and to cut one of the supply lines to the nearby Shirqat area. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to talk to the media.Mosul — Iraq's second-largest city — fell to the Islamic State group during the militants' June 2014 onslaught that captured large swaths of northern and western Iraq and also neighboring Syria. Mosul, about 225 miles northwest of Baghdad, became also the largest city in ISIS' self-declared caliphate on territories the militants control.Rasool's declaration came only few days after the United States announced that it has set up a small Marine artillery outpost in northern Iraq to protect a nearby Iraqi military base in Makhmour — the likely staging ground for a Mosul assault, located 40 miles southeast of the city.On Saturday, the militants fired two rockets at the base, killing a U.S. Marine and wounding several others.Despite Thursday's announcement, the number of Iraqi troops needed to carry out the operation to retake Mosul, nearly two years after it fell to ISIS, is not yet in place, and training efforts by the U.S.-led coalition are still ongoing.Under political pressure to show victory, al-Abadi has repeatedly vowed to "liberate" Mosul, but U.S. Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress last month that he is "not as optimistic."Coalition and Iraqi officials estimate that eight to 12 brigades, or an estimated 24,000 to 36,000 troops, will be needed for the Mosul operation. So far, only 2,000 to 3,000 Iraqi troops have been deployed at Makhmour base.





The Iraqi military must also clear ISIS fighters from more than 70 miles of territory to ensure reliable supply lines between Makhmour and Baghdad.

One leg of the Iraqi military's efforts to clear some of that territory in Anbar has been put on hold. A political crisis in Baghdad has prompted al-Abadi to pull some of Iraq's elite counterterrorism forces back from the front in the Euphrates River valley to secure the capital.The prime minister recalled the forces after influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr mobilized thousands and staged a sit-in outside Baghdad's highly fortified Green Zone last week in a show of force meant to put pressure on Iraq's political leadership.Associated Press Writer Susannah George contributed to this report from Amman, Jordan.

March 4, "The military operations of Iraq's joint armed forces in Anbar province and Western part of Salahuddin have caused the withdrawal of the ISIL from Mosul in Nineveh province and the terrorists fleeing toward the Syrian borders," Ahmad Al-Jabouri told FNA on Saturday.The Iraqi lawmaker reiterated that the ISIL has lost swathes of lands due to the recent military operations of the Iraqi forces in the Western provinces of Iraq. In relevant remarks on Thursday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that all Iraqi armed forces, including volunteer forces, should join hands to liberate the strategic Northern city of Mosul, slamming foreign parties who oppose partnership of the popular troops in the operation. Abadi said on that the liberation of Mosul will be achieved with the cooperation and unity of all Iraqis, stressing that no one has the right to exclude the volunteer forces from the historic battle.

What is stopping the liberation of Mosul?March 2, Ongoing preparations are taking place for the coming battle of Mosul, which appears to be getting closer, military sources say. Iraqi forces will face a difficult and costly battle and many obstacles before they can take over the western bastion of the Islamic State (IS).In a speech praising the army's victory in Ramadi against IS, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Dec. 28, "We are coming to liberate Mosul, and it will be the fatal and final blow to [IS].”The liberation of the city of Ramadi on Dec. 28 was the first major success of Iraqi forces against IS, which took over large swaths of western and northern Iraq in June 2014.Iraqi military sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor that the Mosul attack would most probably be launched by June. Political bickering may cause the postponing of the operations.However, constrained by weather conditions, Iraqi and coalition forces will have to capture the city before the coming winter if they are to retake Mosul in 2016, as Abadi suggested. Military sources say the battle for Mosul will have to take place in the spring or in summer, as IS generally uses bad weather and the cover of rainy nights to attack frontlines.Located 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) north of Baghdad, Mosul, the second-largest Iraqi city, is the self-proclaimed Iraqi capital of IS and home to more than 1 million Iraqis.The city has become emblematic in the war against IS, and its liberation would not only destroy IS’ center of power but deal a huge moral blow to the organization’s expansionary narrative by marking the end of the caliphate, as proclaimed by its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.Retired US Col. Harry Schute, who is currently a senior security adviser to the Kurdistan Regional Government, told Al-Monitor that it is still hard to say when the Mosul attack





will take place, noting that “shaping operations is required before such an offensive.”

These preparatory steps, which appear to be starting, include a further attack on IS’ direct and strategic interests and the organization’s supply lines and strategic locations.“The US-led coalition is continuously working on targeting the organization’s direct or strategic interests,” said Schute, who referred to direct interests as manpower and military equipment and strategic interests as oil infrastructure and other revenue-generating operations.On Dec. 10, coalition strikes had killed mid-level IS leaders in Syria and Iraq.With the takeover of Sinjar last November, west of Mosul, Kurdish forces, backed by US airstrikes, have also worked on cutting IS’ supply lines, namely by controlling Highway 47 that connects Raqqa to Mosul.Other key cities and regions will have to be taken over before any attack on Mosul can be launched. Schute said that the rest of the Tigris area, namely Baiji and cities such as Gyara and Tal Afar, will have to be liberated before the Mosul offensive. The Fallujah takeover might also be necessary, he added, given the tribal uprising against IS percolating there.For military expert Ahmad Shawki, Gyara will be instrumental in the Mosul battle as it is an important supply line for IS connecting the city to Hawija. In addition, capturing the city of Hit could also be a prelude to any Mosul operations. Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath reported Feb. 22 that Iraqi and tribal forces were congregating in the Ain al-Assad base, south of Hawija in Anbar, to attack Hit.Shawki added that after cutting supply lines and taking over strategic areas, the Iraqi forces’ advances toward Mosul will still be problematic because of the high population density; the sheer size of the city makes it a difficult target."Mosul is different from Ramadi; it is a very large city with over 2 million people,” Mosul-born political activist Ghanem al-Abed told Al-Monitor.Abed said that the surrounding areas and the western part of the city, which are less densely populated and more recently built, will be relatively easy to take over. However, Mosul contains other very dense and old areas barely accessible by car, which will complicate the advance of forces and cause high human losses, he added.IS is also believed to have set up elaborate defenses, booby traps and mines as it did in other cities such as Ramadi.Retaking the mostly Sunni city of Mosul will be rendered more difficult because of the number of local and regional players in northern Iraq with diverging agendas. “Mosul is not only populous but multiethnic, which means multiple players will be involved in the operation,” Abed added.The region is comprised of different and often rival ethnic and religious groups including Sunnis, Shiites, Christians, Kurds, Turkmens and Yazidis.“The [Kurdish] peshmerga, as well as the local Sunni Hashid Shaabi [Popular Mobilization Units] and Christian forces, will have to play a role in the Mosul offensive. The Sunni Hashid Shaabi includes forces affiliated with former Ninevah governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, as well as some 4,000 police forces from the city, trained by former Iraqi generals, as well as the Turks in the Zalkhan base,” Shawki said.He estimates that a total of 10,000 fighters have been trained for the Mosul battle in the base, where some 150 Turkish military are present. Iraqi newswire Al-Mada reported that 1,000 Iraqi forces had already been moved back to Makhmur, and that 26,000 police forces were ready to fight for the liberation of Mosul.Shawki added, “There are also the Mosul tribes that will certainly play a role in the battle,





as well as Christian and Yazidi Popular Mobilizations Units, amounting to some 1,500 fighters.”

The Popular Mobilization Units consist of a coalition of mostly Iran-backed Shiite militias set up to fight IS.According to Reuters Dec. 29, Kurdish forces have positions east, north and west of Mosul, while Iraqi security forces backed by Shiite militias have positions in Baiji, south of Mosul. Recent articles by Al-Arabiya and Al-Mada quoted Feb. 22 Abadi and House Speaker Salim al-Jubouri discussing the future involvement of Shiite Popular Mobilization Units in the Mosul battle, which was denounced by members of the Ninevah governorate on the same day.“Whether Shiite militias will play a role or not in Mosul will be a decisive factor in the next battle and determine whether the local population will cooperate or not with Iraqi forces and facilitate their entry into the city,” Abed said. On US demand, Iraqi military commanders kept Shiite militias away from the Ramadi battlefield, to avoid clashes with Sunni civilians.“We need the cooperation of the local residents to feed the Iraqi forces information,” Shawki said. Cooperation with Iraqi forces appears to be already taking place in certain areas. According to Al-Mada, local residents and IS defectors have attempted to open channels of communication with the Iraqi central government for a possible battle at Fallujah.The Baghdad government needs to win over local populations to prevail over IS in Mosul. For that, it will have to decide carefully which factions can support the Iraqi forces' advance on the city, while avoiding the exacerbating sectarian sentiments.IS’ objective will thus be to postpone, as much as possible, the city’s liberation by creating stalemates in areas it already holds and using sectarian fault lines in its favor.

Iran deploys Army Special Forces to Syria and IraqBY AMIR TOUMAJ | March 25, 2016 | [email protected] | @AmirToumajA senior commander in Iran’s Army told reporters on Mar. 23 that Special Forces would be deployed as “advisors” to Syria and Iraq. This would mark the first time that Army forces – in this case, commandos and snipers of the Rapid Response Battalions – will have operated outside Iranian borders since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) military presence in the country is well-documented, but the announcement denotes the first time Iran’s Army has formally contributed to military operations in Syria, which has been an IRGC-led campaign since Tehran first began sending significant resources to the country four years ago.Iran’s decision to integrate Army special forces into major foreign operations underscore its commitment to hone its expeditionary capabilities. In fact, the Army’s involvement in Syria may have begun several months ago, as the head of its ground forces did not deny a report of an Army helicopter spotted flying from Iraq to Syria in December.The Army was Iran’s primary military force prior to the 1979 revolution. The IRGC, on the other hand, was established after the revolution as a praetorian guard charged with protecting the revolution and balancing against a coup by the Army, which the clerics viewed with suspicion for its prior ties to the monarchy. The two institutions have been rivals ever since. The Army is a traditional military organization, while the Guard pursues asymmetric and “revolutionary” warfare. Each has its own ground, navy, and air branches.Since 1979, however, the clerics have marginalized the Army in favor of the IRGC. The Guard receives better equipment and funding, even though it is only one-third in size





(150,000 men compared to 350,000). It now dominates Iran’s military affairs, producing almost all of the senior officers in the General Staff. Still, the

Army is not totally irrelevant.The Army, for example, appears to be responsible for securing Iran’s western border with Iraq. The army’s ground forces commander announced in mid-March that his team and intelligence apparatus had neutralized two Islamic State infiltration cells and suicide vests at the border. The ground forces also reportedly deployed troops, helicopters, and drones to border crossings to provide security for 800,000 Iranian pilgrims to Iraq in December 2015.The newly announced Army deployment to Syria and Iraq represents a departure from its constitutional mission to protect Iran’s territorial integrity. And while there have been no reported sightings – or casualties – of Army troops yet in Syria or Iraq, the deployment announcement came after the warring parties in Syria agreed to a cessation of hostilities last month.February’s cessation of hostilities agreement means Iran no longer needs the 2,500 troops with which it launched last month’s offensive in northern Aleppo to cut off the main rebel supply route from Turkey. Iran has reportedly kept 700 military “advisers” in Syria. Announcements of IRGC fatalities in Syria have continued since the ceasefire announcement. Despite reports that Iran is drawing back its deployment in Syria, therefore, this week’s announcement is merely a reflection of Tehran reconfiguring its forces in the country to reflect changing conditions on the ground.Long War Journal contributor Amir Toumaj is an Iran research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Regards Cees***Eventually, ISIS will be defeated. What then? Will we stand by as the remnant ISIS members morph into another, even more deadly organization, much like Al Qaeda in Iraq morphed into ISIS?

Twenty-five years ago, President George H. W. Bush led a United Nations sanctioned force to liberate Kuwait during Operation Desert Storm, and then implemented "No Fly Zones" over Iraq, spearheaded an international relief effort to protect the Kurds during Operation Provide Comfort, while sending 1,000 soldiers to Kuwait to deter future aggression.President Bill Clinton continued the No-Fly Zones and the semi-permanent presence in Kuwait, as well as launching attacks against Iraq in 1993, 1996, and in 1998.In 2003, President George W. Bush led a "Coalition of the Willing" to topple the Saddam Hussain government, leading to a force of over 100,000 troops in Iraq for the remainder of his presidency.In 2009, President Barack Obama began drawing down U.S. Forces, leading to the removal of all U.S. troops by the end of 2011, although by 2014, the situation in Iraq deteriorated to a point where he ordered airstrikes and deployed an Army division headquarters, then a corps headquarters in 2015, to fight against Islamic extremists. With all the military action against Iraq over the past quarter century, we have to ask ourselves, what have we learned?

First is that given time, the United States military is capable of accomplishing any clearly defined mission. Despite missteps and mismanagement following the invasion of Iraq in 2003—disbanding the Iraqi army and the de-Baathification polices implemented by the Coalition Provisional Authority, leading to Al Qaeda and its affiliates flooding into





Iraq and allying with a disenfranchised Sunni population to spark a full-fledged insurgency.

By 2006, the American military had started to figure it out. Starting with a change in tactics in Ramadi that defeated the first Islamic Caliphate in Iraq, and facilitated by birth of the Anbar Awakening, the success in Ramadi spread across the Sunni controlled Anbar province and ultimately Iraq during the "Surge" in 2007.By the end of 2008, the security situation was under control in Iraq, although the nation's political institutions lagged behind. Today, shifting the focus of air strikes to targeting revenue-producing oil trucks as well as ISIS fighters seems to be having a positive effect in stemming the tide of ISIS.

Second, is the Iraqi people have withstood the worst of the hardship for generations. Between Saddam's tyranny and the Islamic fundamentalist terrorism that followed, life for the average Iraqi has been both dangerous and fraught with suffering. Saddam persecuted the Shia, Kurds, as well as other ethnic minorities to the extent of genocide.As a group, Saddam spared his Sunni base widespread oppression, but individually they feared ending up in one of Saddam's Abu Ghraib torture rooms if they got on the wrong side of the regime. The United Nation's sanctions hit the Iraqi people particularly hard.essities were in short supply, and the damage to the nation's infrastructure incurred during the thirty-nine day Desert Storm bombing campaign were never repaired.Saddam corrupted the U.N. Food for Oil program immediately upon its inception, and its proceeds rarely reached its intended targets. Instead, most of the revenue from the well-intentioned program went to bankrolling the regime. Things became worse for the Iraqi people when the regime fell. I witnessed first-hand Al Qaeda in Iraq's ruthless murder and intimidation campaign, targeting Iraqi security forces and average citizens alike. As bad as it was at the height of the insurgency, today, those days are the salad days for the people living under ISIS control.

Third, there are no silver bullet solutions, shortcuts, or strictly military answers to creating a stable and peaceful Iraq. An uncompromising commitment on the part of the U.S. that is free from arbitrarily imposed timelines and political grandstanding is the only way to bring stability to the country and ultimately the region.Perhaps we should have taken out Saddam during Operation Desert Storm. Perhaps we never should have invaded Iraq in 2003. Perhaps we never should have pulled out of Iraq in 2011. All of these questions are academic at this point. Resolution to the current troubles facing Iraq—ethnic/religious divisions and a large swath of the country controlled by religious fanatics that have proven themselves capable of attacks both in the United States and in Europe—will not be solved by airstrikes or troops on the ground alone.Today, a clear U.S. policy towards Iraq, working with a government in Baghdad that is committed to a representative democracy is the only way to prevent the entire region from unraveling into a three-way civil war.

Fourth, the Iraqi people really do what democracy. The Sunni leaders I worked with all wanted a voice in their government; something that they were denied under Saddam, and later Al Qaeda. They really did not understand the finer points of democracy, but they were working together to make Iraq a country. For a few short years, the Iraqis achieved it, but those gains fell apart after the American pull out in 2011.Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki's hardline sectarian polices and persecution of the Sunnis tore the country apart. The rise of ISIS in Anbar province had more to do with the oppressive policies on the part of the Shia dominated government in Baghdad as it did with religious fervor.





Today, the leaders of the Anbar Awakening I was dealing with in 2006 either are dead at the hands of ISIS or have fled Iraq. It really is unclear what Sunni

leaders remain in Iraq to put the county back together again. Eventually, ISIS will be defeated. What then? Will we stand by as the remnant ISIS members morph into another, even more deadly organization, much like Al Qaeda in Iraq morphed into ISIS?Will Iraq be able to unite and become a peaceful and prosperous nation, or is the current situation going to drag on for another twenty-five years? More importantly, will we have the national will to see it through to completion this time around? Col. Tony Deane (ret.)is a veteran of the Cold War, Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm, Operation Joint Guardian (Kosovo), and Operation Iraqi Freedom.

New Iraq map dd March 13, 2016 By Thomas van Linge





New Syria map dd March 13, 2016 By Thomas van Linge




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