Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-4

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-4

C: Syria As well as Iraq as we know it does not exist anymore and bringing it back to its formal states will not be possible. Will Aleppo fall to Islamic State? There are growing fears that Syria's second city, Aleppo, could be taken over by Islamic State (IS) as fighting to the north between government and rebel forces intensifies.

The US has accused the regime of "avoiding [IS] lines", contradicting its claim to be fighting the group.

If the jihadists are victorious, they could control one of the main border crossings with Turkey, Bab al-Salam, which would be another source of funding for them.

An umbrella group of opposition fighters have seized the largest army base in the southern province of Deraa, Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said regime troops withdrew to the nearby village of al-Dara.

Regime forces have suffered several defeats over the last three months at the hands of opposition fighters. One of the most recent major losses was Idlib province, which rebels claimed full control over since Saturday

Mr Assad is sending a message to the West that if he was overthrown, the only alternative would be fundamentalist groups like IS

Right now, the de facto alliances, experts say, appear to be between al Qaeda’s branch in Syria and a coalition of rebel brigades, against both the Islamic State group and forces loyal to president Bashar Assad.And Jabhat al Nusra changed its strategy last year, readjusting its goals from simply

taking down the regime to defeating ISIS as well. “This initial onslaught by ISIS seems to have been contained or slowed or even pushed back in a few places,” White said. “My sense is that ISIS is not going to have dramatic success” in Aleppo.

The emergence of a well-coordinated and heavily armed alliance led by Jabhat al Nusra, which is fighting ISIS as well as the regime, is putting muscle behind that proposition. That alliance is taking the form of so-called “ operations rooms,” or local coalitions of rebel forces that coordinate tactics on the ground.

Developments in the north and the withdrawals from both Idlib and Palmyra suggest the president might be preparing for a divided Syria in which he kept control of Damascus and the Mediterranean cost in the west, leaving the north to the jihadists

C: Not much heard of so far: The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' elite Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, is reported to have recently visited Latakia, and declared: "The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days."- But if Iran pulls this card the west has no answer to it and the longer term consequences’ for the lack of strategy by the west will be severe: Iran spreading their sphere of influence and once its there they will not easily let go: they can smell the Mediterranean cost breeze likely soon..

Syrian rebels seize largest army base in Deraa Opposition fighters take control of a major base that was used by the regime to shell all eastern areas of the province.

09 Jun 2015 An umbrella group of opposition fighters have seized the largest army base in the southern province of Deraa - the birthplace of Syria's four-year uprising - after 24 hours of fighting, a rebel spokesman and monitoring group have said. Essam al-Rayes, a spokesman for the Southern Front rebel alliance operating in the province, told the AFP news agency on Tuesday that the "fully liberated" base "was one of the main lines of

Cees: Intel to Rent of 9 15/04/2023


defence for regime forces". "It was a nightmare, because they used it to shell all the areas to the east of the province," he added.He said at least 2,000 rebel forces overran the base, which lies near a major highway running from Damascus to Syria's southern border with Jordan, in a "short and quick" assault.

Diaa al-Hariri, a spokesman for Faylaq al-Awwal, one of the armed groups in the Southern Front coalition, also confirmed the significance of the base. "The base is also an important infantry base, from which the regime attacked towns and villages in the south," he said.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group that relies on a network of activists on the ground, reported that opposition groups had taken the 52nd Brigade base after clashes and intense shelling that left 14 rebel fighters and 20 government forces dead. Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said regime troops withdrew to the nearby village of al-Dara. Rebel groups control a majority of Daraa province and its capital, according to Abdel Rahman. Syria's official news agency SANA did not mention the capture of the base. But earlier, citing a military source, it said the air force had struck the area, killing at least 40 "terrorists".

String of regime losses Regime forces have suffered several defeats over the last three months at the hands of opposition fighters. One of the most recent major losses was Idlib province, which rebels claimed full control over since Saturday.The Observatory also said on Tuesday that it has documented the deaths of 230,000 people since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011. The dead include 69,494 civilians, among them 11,493 children. The conflict has also claimed the lives of 49,106 troops, 32,533 pro-government fighters and 38,592 rebels, it said. Abdurrahman said the real death toll could be above 300,000, since there are tens of thousands of people who are missing or were buried without being counted. Syria's conflict began with peaceful Arab Spring-inspired demonstrations demanding political reform, but eventually escalated into a civil war after the government responded with a violent crackdown on dissent. Today the country is split among forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, opposition factions, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group.

The Southern Front rebel alliance formed in April after rebel batallions joined together, in emulation of what was happening in the north of the country, where rebels led by the local branch of al Qaeda, Jabhat al Nusra, formed a joint coordination group that was able to take the important city of Idlib, as well as most of the province around it.

The Southern Front 1 is a Syrian rebel coalition consisting of 58 Syrian opposition factions affiliated with the Free Syrian Army, with the Southern Front commanding the loyalty of 70% of active operations rooms in southern Syria. The Southern Front was established on 14 February 2014 in southern Syria and receives support from the Military Operations Center (MOC) based in Amman, Jordan. Since its formation, rebels said, field operation rooms have been added inside Syria to improve coordination between units. The coalition is "described by Western officials as the best organized of the mainstream opposition".

Syria - Southern Front, Issam Al Reis announces Southern Front’s Joint CommandFree Syrian Army Southern Front Statement on the formation of a Joint Command for the Southern Front, May 15, 2015 The current juncture is one of the most critical in the history of our revolution. The sacrifices of our people make it incumbent upon us to assume a certain level of responsibility. Therefore, we announce the formation of the Joint Command of the

1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Front_of_the_Free_Syrian_Army



Southern Front. It was agreed that this body would be formed through an election. As a result, the Joint Command is now comprised of seven leaders, who are as follows:1. Major Hassan Ibrahim (Abu Osama Joulani). General Coordinator2. Commander Ahmad Al-Awdeh (Abu Hamza)3. Staff Colonel the Pilot Khaled Al-Nabulsi (Abu Omar)4. Commander Samer Mohiuddin Haboosh (Abu Salah al-Shami)5. Captain Saeed Nakresh (Abu-Jamal)6. Colonel Saber Safar (Abu Dia)7. Staff Colonel Bakkour al-Saleem (Abu Firas)God grants success. The official spokesman for the Southern Front Major Issam Al Reis

That Northern alliance, known as Jaysh al Fatah or "army of conquest," took on the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, as well as on the regime; the “Fattah Army” coalition of rebel groups, which included al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the al-Nusra Front. Other factions within the Fattah Army umbrella included Ajnad al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, Jaish al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and Faynad al-Sham.

Infographic: Syria map update [Al Jazeera]



Syrian rebels seize largest army base in DeraaOpposition fighters take control of a major base that was used by the regime to shell all eastern areas of the province. 09 Jun 2015 An umbrella group of opposition fighters have reportedly seized control over almost all of Idlib province from government forces after launching a major offensive on Friday. Abu Yazeed, a spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, one of Syria's most powerful anti-government groups which is also a part of the the Fattah Army coalition, told Al Jazeera on Saturday that the fighters now hold control over "about 99 percent" of Idlib. The province borders the two key largely government-controlled provinces of Latakia and Hama. Syrian state news agency Sana also reported the military's loss of territory in Idlib, saying "the army evacuated several military sites around the town of Muambel".

Syria conflict: Will Aleppo fall to Islamic State? There are growing fears that Syria's second city, Aleppo, could be taken over by Islamic State (IS) as fighting to the north between government and rebel forces intensifies.With the military being driven out of the adjacent province of Idlib by a newly-formed rebel alliance, the Army of Conquest, focus has shifted to the fate of Aleppo, an ancient trading hub near the border with Turkey that has been a battleground for the past three years. IS fighters are reportedly heading towards the city, while the Syrian opposition and the US have accused the regime of helping the jihadists by carrying out air strikes on rebels fighting them, especially in the town of Marea, north of Aleppo. The US has accused the regime of "avoiding [IS] lines", contradicting its claim to be fighting the group. The US-led coalition fighting IS is focusing its attacks against the group in Iraq and in Raqqa in northern Syria, where the IS has established its headquarters. Last month, both Syrian government forces and the coalition failed to stop hundreds of IS fighters from crossing almost 45 miles (70km) of desert to seize the ancient city of Palmyra. There have been sporadic clashes between the government and IS, but the Syrian opposition accuses the regime of allowing IS into Palmyra and pulling out of the city and its ancient ruins, leaving tonnes of weapons that the radical group is now using. Supply line The fear is that a similar scenario may take place in Aleppo. The city is divided between the government-held west and the rebel sector in the east.The government also controls the area to the south of the city while to the east IS is in control, stretching to Raqqa province and nearly all of the oil-rich city of Deir al-Zour. To the west of Aleppo, the area is still contested by both the army and rebel forces, where opposition fighters are besieging pro-government towns of Nubul and Zahra. The focus now is on the north, a critical supply line to the rebels in Aleppo, and where the fighting has intensified. The government has intensified its air strikes on rebel forces there while IS is advancing. If the jihadists are victorious, they could control one of the main border crossings with Turkey, Bab al-Salam, which would be another source of funding for them. This would also make Islamic State's presence closer to Turkey, itself accused by the Assad regime of supporting IS, which Ankara denies. The Army of Conquest says it is determined to defend Aleppo and prevent both IS and the government from controlling it. But the battle is going to be fierce and bloody.



'The world will be surprised' President Assad has argued since the start of the uprising that there is no real call for change in Syria, constantly describing the armed opposition as a "terrorist" Sunni extremist movement that must be fought. When IS first appeared in 2013 in Raqqa, government forces hardly attacked the group, which helped it grow. Barrel bombs and air strikes continue to target all other opposition groups in Syria, with most of the victims civilians. Mr Assad is sending a message to the West that if he was overthrown, the only alternative would be fundamentalist groups like IS. Developments in the north and the withdrawals from both Idlib and Palmyra suggest the president might be preparing for a divided Syria in which he kept control of Damascus and the Mediterranean cost in the west, leaving the north to the jihadists. But at the same time, the regime feels embarrassed about the rebel advance. It could not justify the loss of Idlib to its loyalists internally nor to its allies, especially Iran, which has sent military personnel and arms to help. And as the rebels get closer to the regime's coastal stronghold of Latakia, Tehran looks increasingly unwilling to rely on Mr Assad's forces.The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' elite Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, is reported to have recently visited Latakia, and declared: "The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days." The pro-Syrian Lebanese newspaper, Assafir, has said almost 20,000 fighters from Iran and Iraq have arrived in Syria to fight for Idlib. This is in addition to the fighters from those countries



already on the ground, indicating how the regime is growing weaker by the day and how strategic decisions are increasingly made abroad.

Syria’s Coming Battle For Aleppo: It's Everybody Against Assad And ISIS By Alessandria Masi on June 06 2015 8:11 AM EDT

Fighters with Jabhat al-Nusra, the al Qaeda branch in Syria, explain the Aleppo area to rebels who have recently joined the battle, June 1, 2015. Aleppo Reporter/Jabhat al-Nusra Islamic Media Foundation Almost every faction fighting in Syria has had its sights on Aleppo since the war began in 2011. No single faction has ever been able to take full control of Syria’s largest city and economic hub. The same goes for the region bordering Turkey. In these areas, the Assad regime has always been firmly in control. But now, several of Syria’s varied factions are once again racing reinforcements to Syria’s northern provinces and are headed for a collision in Aleppo that is creating new alliances. With no group strong enough to take on the regime on its own and have a credible shot at capturing Aleppo, aligning with partners -- sometimes unlikely ones -- is the only chance at breaking the stalemate. Right now, the de facto alliances, experts say, appear to be between al Qaeda’s branch in Syria and a coalition of rebel brigades, against both the Islamic State group and forces loyal to president Bashar Assad. Syria’s Kurds are also active in Aleppo, as well as Iranian-backed forces loyal to the Syrian regime, such as Hezbollah.Watch Jeffrey Pfeffer, professor of organisational behaviour, amongst other experts, discuss insight on everything from negotiating your compensation package to thinking like an entrepreneur. “I think the lines are pretty well drawn,” said Jeff White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Aleppo is just one of those places in Syria where it’s very difficult to achieve any kind of decisive change on the battlefield.”

After a string of strategic wins since the start of the year, rebel groups were in a very strong position to overrun regime forces in Aleppo and neighboring strongholds around the city of Idlib. But the Islamic State group entered the fray. “It would have happened, but Daesh attacked,” said Sharef Sarmada, a Syrian citizen journalist in Idlib, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS. “Now the battle is with Daesh." But ISIS may be getting help from an unlikely source. Syrian President Bashar Assad’s air force pounded Aleppo on Thursday with barrel bombs, while the Islamic State group battled opposition forces and Jabhat al Nusra -- al Qaeda’s branch in Syria -- on the ground. This suggests that the two, if not actually allied, are at least not targeting each other, despite officially being mortal enemies. Since their split in 2013, ISIS and Jabhat al Nusra have occupied territory in different parts of Syria, allowing them to focus their military efforts on other enemy factions. They have fought each other before, but were mostly targeting regime forces until ISIS began its offensive in northern Aleppo last week. That’s uniting all the other rebel factions against them. And Jabhat al Nusra changed its strategy last year, readjusting its goals from simply taking down the regime to defeating ISIS as well. “This initial onslaught by ISIS seems to have been contained or slowed or even pushed back in a few places,” White said. “My sense is that ISIS is not going to have dramatic success” in Aleppo.Anti-ISIS rhetoric has been increasingly common for groups affiliated with al Qaeda across the region. On Wednesday, nine Islamic scholars of jihad issued a fatwa, or Islamic ruling, declaring it the duty of all Muslims to fight ISIS. Among the signatory scholars was Abu



Muhammad al Maqdisi, the alleged mentor of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in 2006. “It is compulsory to repel their [ISIS’] aggression and defend the lands of the Muslims,” according to the fatwa. “It is impermissible to hand over the land of Shaam (the Levant] to them, for it has become clear the corrupted beliefs they hold.” The emergence of a well-coordinated and heavily armed alliance led by Jabhat al Nusra, which is fighting ISIS as well as the regime, is putting muscle behind that proposition. That alliance is taking the form of so-called “ operations rooms,” or local coalitions of rebel forces that coordinate tactics on the ground.

The most successful of those is Jaish al-Fatah, or Army of Conquest, a rebel coalition that has been instrumental in taking Idlib and includes some of the best-equipped Islamist opposition groups. “The operations rooms have been around for a long time,” White said. “What has gotten better is their willingness to cooperate more effectively ... and keep these fighting coalitions in existence over time.” The unprecedented gains in Idlib province last month left rebels with several avenues for continued expansion, including a route to Aleppo and to the coastal regime stronghold of Latakia, a city of vast symbolic and strategic importance. The operations room in charge of the rebel push on Syria’s economic hub bears a name that leaves little room for doubt about its objective: Fatah Halab, or “Conquest of Aleppo.” Having set aside all feuds among rebel groups, it’s now focused on the common enemies. “In regards to our operations, we are only against Daesh and the regime,” said Capt. Islam Alloush, a spokesman for Jaish al-Islam, an Islamist rebel group that is part of at least two operations rooms in the region.While ISIS and the rebel coalitions battle in northern Aleppo, pro-regime forces have ramped up their presence around the city and in neighboring regime-held areas. The government reportedly formed a unit called Shield of Coast Brigade to protect Latakia, but the move may be a sign of desperation by a regime that’s losing its best fighters and foreign advisors. “It’s a unit of very uncertain capability,” White said. “It’s one of these many, many schemes the regime has for generating forces and filling in these gaps in manpower. If there is an injection of Iranian forces that could change things.” That manpower deficit has long been filled by Iran-backed forces, including Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. There have been various reports of an influx of these fighters to Syria in the past week, with numbers ranging from 1,000 to 15,000, many of whom would be deployed to Latakia.In Aleppo, it is estimated that there are less than 150 Hezbollah fighters based in two major Shiite towns “who are in a position to assist ISIS but don’t appear to be doing very much,” White said. According to the man who many say is the real force behind whatever military strength the Syrian regime is still displaying, those fighters may be getting ready for a counterattack. "The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days,” General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds force, said in Syria earlier this week, according to Iran's official IRNA state news agency. The Syrian army also launched an operation in Idlib to strip the opposition of its recent territorial gains. On Thursday, the regime launched three rocket attacks that hit a highly populated area in Idlib, wounding at least 130 people, according to Doctors Without Borders. That counterattack in Idlib threatens to spread opposition forces thin, but their leaders are vowing to hold on. “The battle for Aleppo is continuing,” Hassam Abu Bakr, the commander of Ahrar al Sham, one of the largest groups in the Aleppo operations room, told Syria Direct. “As is the battle for Idlib.”

Jihadist-led coalition continues to make gains in IdlibLWJ BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | June 8, 2015 | Jaysh al Fateh (“Army of Conquest”), a jihadist-led coalition of several groups, swept through several towns and villages in the Syrian


http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/author/joscelyn

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province of Idlib in recent days. The coalition’s military successes began in March, when the alliance was announced and quickly overran Assad’s forces in the city of Idlib. The newly captured residential areas are near Jisr Al Shughur and Ariha, two cities that fell to the jihadists in recent months. The Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, is one of the key groups in Jaysh al Fateh. Al Nusrah has posted pictures and videos from the newly “liberated” areas on its Twitter feeds. The towns and villages seized by Jaysh al Fateh include A’yn al Hamra, Basnaqul, Muhambel, and Sanqara. Other military checkpoints fell as well. As is customary after their military successes, the jihadists posted pictures of the “booty” they captured from the Syrian government, including arms and armored vehicles. Some of the photos posted on Al Nusrah’s social media sites highlight the fact that the recent gains give its fighters much easier access to the neighboring coastal province of Latakia, which has long been a stronghold of the Assad family. The images include pictures of Syrian soldiers laying dead on the highway between Idlib and Latakia. The Syrian regime has conceded that its forces retreated from the area. Agence France Presse (AFP) cited a “military source” as saying that “the army evacuated several military sites around the town of Muhambel in Idlib province.” And SANA, the regime’s propaganda news agency, said Assad’s fighters “relocated to new positions and lines more suitable for the

implementation of subsequent combat missions.” Jaysh al Fateh’s latest surge in Idlib comes at a time when key member groups in the coalition are redeploying some of their fighters to battle the Islamic State in Aleppo. The Al Nusrah Front, Ahrar al Sham, and others in Jaysh al Fateh sent forces to Aleppo after the Islamic State seized territory from the Levant Front, another coalition of several groups.This has forced Al Nusrah, Ahrar al Sham

and other groups to battle the Assad regime and the Islamic State at the same time. Al Nusrah has posted pictures of tanks and other weaponry being used in the fight against Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s organization online. One such photo can be seen on the right. The anti-Assad jihadists openly worried that the Islamic State’s latest push into Aleppo would compromise their ability to continue the offensive against Assad in Idlib and elsewhere. Thus far, Jaysh al Fateh has enough fighters to staff both fights. However, the recently captured territory did not require as many fighters as would be necessary for a major push into Latakia. This image shows the towns and villages under the Assad regime’s control (in red) before the

latest offensive:

And this image shows the newly “liberated” areas

(in green) taken from the Assad regime:

US Strikes ISIS Fighters to Protect al-Qaeda Town in NW Syriaby Jason Ditz, June 08, 2015


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Up until the past few days, US airstrikes in Syria have come in two forms, the ones aimed at directly aiding Kurdish factions against ISIS, and the kind meant to just cause damage to ISIS without an eye toward aiding anyone. Monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is now reporting the first US strikes in aid of a “non-Kurdish” faction in Syria. The strikes, which began on Friday, were meant to blunt an ISIS offensive against the city of Azaz, which is held by a coalition of Islamist rebels that is dominated by al-Qaeda. Eight were killed in the airstrikes, and 20 wounded. That was just the tip of the iceberg, however, as the Islamists reported they were “tipped off” about ISIS positions in advance, and captured a large number of them over the subsequent days, publicly beheading a number of captive ISIS fighters. The rebel faction, which again is al-Qaeda dominated, also released a video showing a battalion of US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels who are fighting alongside them firing US Tow missiles against ISIS targets outside of Azaz. Azaz is considered a hugely valuable city because it is on the main highway between the city of Aleppo and the major Syria-Turkey border crossing. ISIS controls much of the border east of Aleppo, while al-Qaeda holds the border region in Idlib up to this part of Aleppo. Other crossings are held by Kurdish factions.


Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-4

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