AL-06 Flash Poll Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8

N = 89,695 / n = 647 MoE = +/- 3.84% at 95% Confidence Interval

CLIENT: None; For Media Release

Republican Primary Runoff Election – July 15, 2014

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (H2H)

05/27 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results MoE +/- 3.68%

DeMarco – 19.8% Palmer – 18.1% Beason – 12.1% Mathis – 16.8% Brooke – 11.2% Vigneulle – 3.4% Undecided – 18.6%

DeMarco – 32.7% Palmer – 19.7% Beason – 15.3% Mathis – 15.3% Brooke – 13.9% Vigneulle – 2.5%

Difference

DeMarco – 12.9% Palmer – 1.6% Beason – 3.2% Mathis – -1.5% Brooke – 2.7% Vigneulle – -0.9%

NOTE: We pegged every candidate within the margin of error except DeMarco, which we expected. Out of all the candidates, DeMarco had the highest favorability at the time (52.5 fav – 28.6 unfav). Undecided voters tend to break toward the most well-known, well-liked candidate, and that occurred on 06/03/14. We projected turnout at 111,931 and it ended up being 94,354.

RUNOFF POLLING Head-to-Head (H2H)

Definite DEMARCO

19.1%

Probably DEMARCO

10.2%

Definite PALMER 46.8%

Probably PALMER 12.8%

Undecided 11.1%

RUNOFF POLLING Jefferson County (H2H)

Definite DEMARCO

24.0%

Probably DEMARCO

11.9% Definite PALMER 45.6%

Probably PALMER 11.3%

Undecided 7.2%

RUNOFF POLLING Shelby County (H2H)

Definite DEMARCO

12.7%

Probably DEMARCO

8.2%

Definite PALMER 50.8%

Probably PALMER 12.4%

Undecided 15.9%

RUNOFF POLLING All Other Counties (H2H)

Definite DEMARCO

15.7%

Probably DEMARCO

8.5%

Definite PALMER 43.8%

Probably PALMER 17.7%

Undecided 14.2%

FAVORABILITY DeMarco vs. Palmer

0 10 20 30 40 50 45.7

29.5

8.6

4.2 10.4

1.7

20.1

31.2

22.6

14.9

9.9

1.3

DeMarco

Palmer

VOTING PROPENSITY Highest & High

DeMarco 27.7%

Palmer 66.2%

Undec 6.1%

DeMarco 28.6%

Palmer 57.0%

Undec 14.4%

Highest Propensity High Propensity

VOTING PROPENSITY Mid & Lowest

DeMarco 33.5%

Palmer 51.6%

Undec 14.9%

DeMarco 27.3%

Palmer 53.2%

Undec 19.5%

Medium Propensity Lowest Propensity

16.1%

45.8%

30.1%

8.0%

All

Most

Some

None

AGREEMENT WITH Tea Party Views

Demographic Info

Political Ideology Very Conservative – 49.1% Somewhat Conservative – 33.2% Independent – 13.9% Somewhat Liberal – 2.6% Very Liberal – 1.2%

Age Range 18 to 34 – 3.9% 35 to 49 – 18.1% 50 to 64 – 35.4% 65+ – 42.7%

Gender Male – 47.5% Female – 52.5%

Geography

Jefferson – 52.1% Shelby – 29.1% Others – 18.8%

Primary Propensity Zones Highest – 44.5% High – 26.9% Medium – 24.4% Low – 4.3%

For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:

Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner brent@cygn.al

Cory Brown, Data Strategist cory@cygn.al

www.cygn.al