Airbus Commercial Update
Transcript of Airbus Commercial Update
Airbus Commercial UpdateAirbus Commercial UpdateMark Pearman Wright
Head of Leasing & Investor Marketing
Indian Wells, 22nd September
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One year ago the world entered a severe recession
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Downturn worse than predicted
Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Feb 2008 forecast
Nov 2008 forecast
Jan'09 Forecast
Apr'09 Forecast
Aug'09 Forecast
Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
…but rebound forecast for 2010
We are here
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Downturn has bottomed out
Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
World
USA
Western Europe
Japan
Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus
We are here
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
…but rebound forecast for 2010
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Downturn has bottomed out
Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
WorldUSAWestern EuropeJapanEmerging mktsChina
Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus
We are here
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
It is a multi-speed world
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Airbus backlog is well balanced
North America301 (9%)
Latin America195 (6%)
Europe727 (20%)
Africa80 (2%)
Middle East490 (14%)
Asia* / Pacific705 (20%)Lessors
516 (15%)
Corporate Jet73 (2%)
China408 (12%)
*Includes Indian sub-ContinentData end August 2009
3500 aircraft (7 years of production)well distributed amongst developed and emerging markets
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Airbus achievements in 2009
254 aircraft delivered in the first half of 2009On-track to repeat 2008 deliveries of 483 aircraft
and behind the scenes……..Successfully managing the order-bookNot “over-committing” on financing
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GulfCrisis
OilCrisis
WTC attack+ SARS
OilCrisis
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Air travel is resilient to shocks
Source: ICAO, Airbus
World annual traffic (RPK – trillions)ICAO
total traffic
Air travel doubles every 15 years
Air traffichas doubled
every 15 years
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Air travel is resilient to shocks
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2009
World annual traffic (RPK – trillions)
Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years
ICAO total traffic
Airbusforecast
Air travel doubles every 15 years
Air traffichas doubled
every 15 years
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Air travel is a strong growth industry
AustralasiaWestern EuropeJapanNorth America
India ChinaCentral EuropeMiddle EastCISAfrica Asia* Latin America
* Asia excludes India & China
Air transport is an still an emerging industry for 84% of the world
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20-year demand for 25,000 aircraft
16,97716,977 single aisles39%39% of total value
6,2456,245 twin aisles42%42% of total value
1,7291,729 very large aircraft19%19% of total value
Market value of $3.1 trillion
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Growth generates fragmentation & consolidation
FRAGMENTATIONFRAGMENTATIONHub by-passingMarket developmentFrequency on thin routes
CONSOLIDATIONCONSOLIDATIONMore cost-effective networkGlobal network reachLinking major hubsThe logic behind alliances
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The question Airbus was asking in the mid-90’s
How to compete with the 747….that had been in service for 25 years ?
“…an aircraft that is now regrettably a has-been. But so,
history and time march forward.”
Chew Choon SengCEO, SIA, 15 October 2007
The prototype 747-100 “City of Everett”Pictured at the Museum of Flight in Seattle
The first commercial 747 was deliveredon 13th December 1969
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Early involvement of key stakeholders
Nearly 240 customer meetings prior to EIS
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Airlines demanded a step change in productivity…
RangeUp to 1000 nm further
A 50%productivity increase
Relative to the 747-400
30-35% more passengers
Payload
Plus…
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A new, high capacity aircraft offering a step change in efficiency,new comfort standards & sustainable growth
… costs, comfort, airport compatibility, the environment
Deliver a double digit operating cost advantage
Set new standards in cabin comfort and differentiation
80 m 80 m
80 ft
Be compatible with existing airport infrastructure
and equipment
Meet all anticipated environmental constraints
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Overall concept
Classic configuration with double-deck most suitable
established
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Sizing - fuselage length constraints
80m maximum length for allA380 family members
agreed between airports andmanufacturers in 1990s
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A380 fuselage – facts & figures
A380-800 overall length 72.57 m
Maximum seating 853 passenger seatsTypical seating (3-class) 524 passenger seats
Cabin width (upper deck) 5.80* m (6 ft** wider than 747) Cabin width (main deck) 6.52* m (1 ft** wider than 747)
* Maximum internal width** Eye (headrest) level
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Driven by certification requirementsand emergency slide function in particular
Sizing - fuselage door distribution constraints
Spacing to flaps
Spacing to engines
Maximum door spacing 18m
Minimumdoor
spacing4.5m
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A380 emergency evacuation testMarch 2006
The test is to determine maximum number of passengers and crew that can be evacuated from the aircraft in 90 seconds
The test is conducted in darknessOnly 50% of the available aircraft doors are used853 passengers were successfully evacuated20 crew successfully evacuated78 seconds taken to evacuate all pax and crew
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wing box chordfor fuel volume
short centre box lengthfor good cargo volume
wing span for low fuel consumption
wing area for low approach speed / noise
Sizing - wing design constraints & drivers
max. 80m spanfor airport compatibility
flap chord / span for simple, efficient high-lift system
minimum risk after engine rotor burst
aerodynamics optimised to work in presence of large fuselage andMach .85 cruise
keep-out zones for upper deck evacuation slides
• vs engine intake• vs flap track fairings
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Sizing - choice of wing span
wing span70m 75m 80m 85m
aerodynamic dragtake-off thrustnoise
weightproduction costoverall efficiency
Span limitation does not penalise efficiency
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A380 wing – facts & figures
Overall wingspan 79.75 mWing surface area 845.8 m2Fuel volume 84,535 USgWing vertical flex during take-off 5.50 m (18 ft)
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Industrial launch of the A38019th December 2000
From A3XX to A380
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First metal cut
The first A380 being builtJanuary 2002
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A380 roll-out18th January 2005
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A380 first flight27th April 2005
Flight duration 4 hrs 15 minsTake-off Weight 420,000 kgMaximum altitude 15,000 feetMaximum speed 250 kts
Flight tests performedOpening the flight envelopeLow speed in all configurationsHandling Qualities in direct/normal lawsEngine and system evaluation
Chase aircraftCorvette
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A380 flight test programme
5 flight test aircraftOver 5,000 flight hours and 1,477 flights (>3,800 take-offs)
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Vmu (minimum un-stick speed) testJuly 2005
The test is to ascertain the minimum speed at which the aircraft can rotate, lift-off and achieve a positive climb gradient
Min lift-off speed (at 440t TOW in conf 3) 132 ktsMax lift-off angle (uncompressed gear) 12.7°
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Flutter testSeptember 2005
The flutter test verifies that in all flight regimes, including high speed, the aircraft structure does not suffer from unstable oscillations that could result in structural failure
A380 Vmo (Max Operating speed) 340 ktsA380 Mmo (Max Mach Number) M 0.89A380 Typical Cruise speed M 0.85
Speed achieved during flutter test M 0.96375 kts
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Cold weather trialsFebruary 2006
The trial is to demonstrate that even in extreme cold conditions, including cold soaking the aircraft on ground, the aircraft systems and engines function normally
Minimum temp observed during trial - 29°C degreesCertificated minimum operating temp - 40°C degrees
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Crosswind testsNovember 2006
The test is to check the maximum crosswind component that the aircraft can accommodate, maintain directional control and execute a normal landing
Location KeflavikRunway orientation 02/20Wind speed/direction observed 42 kts
gusts to 56 ktsat 290°
Max crosswind component (recommended) 30 kts
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Federal Aviation Administration
European Aviation Safety Agency
First aircraft to be jointly certified by FAA and EASA 12th December 2006
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An outstanding new aircraft
Jointly certificated by EASA and FAA
All commitments met:
Cabin comfort
Weight status
Airfield performance
Range & fuel burn
Aircraft Handling
Environmental performance
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A380 - In commercial service for over 18 monthsThe future has arrived
“The A380 has exceeded all expectations, delivered on its promiseof reliability and fuel efficiency and is a favourite with customers”
Chew Choon SengCEO Singapore Airlines
10 A380s in service 5 A380s in service
4 A380 in service
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The A380 network is growing
It takes an A380 to compete with an A380
Over 68,000 revenue flight hours in over 7,100 revenue flights*
Additional airline announced routes for 2009/10 shown dotted
Toronto
New York
London
ParisRome
Dubai
Seoul Tokyo
Hong KongBangkokLos Angeles
Auckland
Sydney
Melbourne
Singapore
* 02 Sep 2009
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0
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A380 - the new flagship for international airlines
Top international airlines (International RPKs - millions)
The top five international carriers are all A380 customers
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Saving the planet
80 mpg per pax(current fleet average of 47 mpg per pax)Less than 75g of CO2 per pax per km(EU car manufacturers’ target: 140 g per km in 2008)
Reduced requirement for infrastructure spendingMinimizing environmental impact through greater network efficiency(fewer flights, less noise, less pollution)
A380 – designed with the environment in mind
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Last year world airlines carried more than 2.2 billion passengers
40% in value of interregional export of good are carried by air
Air transport generates 50 million jobs & $3 600 billion worldwide
It contributes for 8% to the world GDP
3% of global man-made CO2 emissions
Air transport is vital to the modern world
Source: Oxford Economics – June 2009
Airbus leading the industry in eco-efficiency
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