Air vs Bluff

7/27/2019 Air vs Bluff

1/6

Moreonpreflopaggression.Letsreexamineourair:nutsratio,andworkonsomefactorswhichmay

pushorpullourratiosupordown.Themainreasonweevenhavearatioisthatthereisgenerallya

perfectfrequencywhichbothmaximizesvalueforourstronghands,aswellasgivesvaluetohands

thatotherwisewouldhavenone.(Wouldbefoldsinthatsituation,soturnsitintoa+EVplay)This

numberisimpossibletodetermine,butthegoldenratioisthebestillustratortocomeclosetothis

frequency.

Aswell,thereasonwedonotwanttoraise/foldhandswhicharenutfunctions,isthatforthemostpart,any4betiscommittingvillaintoanallin,andalsopricesusintomakingapreflopdecision.

(Whetheritbepushpreflop,orcallandgetallinonanyflop)Thesimplefactis4betting,evenwhen

mildlydeep,allowsnoroomformaneuverability.Forexample,ifplayerAopensforthepot(3.5xtheBB)

getsrrbyplayerBBforthepot(12xtheBBtotal)andthenplayerBmakesit40xBBtotal,forthistonot

commitplayerA,stackswouldhavetobeminimumof350xtheBB.Eventhoughsituationslikethisdo

exist,sincemosthandsdealwith70to250xtheBB,ifweare4bet,wereeitherfolding,pushing,or

callingwiththeintentionofneverfolding.Usingthesethoughts,ifwere4bet,wesimplyfeltanynutssegment

by

one

of

the

ways

mentioned

above,

or

let

the

hand

go

if

it

falls

in

the

bluff

category.

If

the

handwasclosetobeinginthenutssegmentbutnotthere(forexample,couldbeQQorAKvsanit

orJJ/TTvsastandardplayeror88/ATvsapsycho)thenwedrathernot3betthenfoldit,sinceweare

notcomfortablefeltingit.

Whenwedealwithaproperratio,again,themainpointistobalanceourownhandstomaximizeEV.

Theotherreason,thatmakesthingsnice,isthatthisallowsustoslipintoacurtainofnonexploitation,

whichisprettyswell.WhatImeanbythis,ispeoplewhoreraiseveryrarelyorfartoooftenareeasyto

play:Theonewhoonlyhasnutvarietyhandswontbeinthesituationofa3bettoroftenanyway,and

whentheyare,peoplewillplaysomewhataccordingly.(Iftheynotice,whichisnotguaranteed)If

someone

3bets

far

too

often,

they

set

themselves

up

to

being

4bet,

which

means

their

3bet

will

not

showprofit.(Andactuallywillcostthemagreatdealofmoney)Forexample,inaNL1000game,ifplayer

Amakesit40pf,andplayerBmakesit150withawiderangeofhandsIfplayerApushes(ormakesit

450,whichisessentiallythesamethingsincetheyreneverfoldingtoanallin),theyregamblingtowin

the~200inthepotnow,andifcalled,haveX%equityofa~2015pot. Settingupthemath

200(fold%)+(2015xequityY%)960(theamounttheyreinvestingaftertheirraise)>or960.

134+2015eq.>960

Eq>826/2015

Eq>~41%.

IfourtypicalrangeisAAQQ,AK,thehandswhichshow41%:AA(84%)KK(57%).AKsisroughly42%,QQ

roughly40%,andAKo39%,makingthatgroupverymarginalifinfactweareonlyfeltingthesame.


2/6

Ourfirstmaingoal,anditwillbetheeasygoal,istoascertainournutsfunction.Again,anynutsfunction

willjustbeahandwhichwilleithershowprofit,breakeven,orbejustifiedwithasmalloverlayofpot

oddstogettingingivenalotofaction.Withtheideaaboveinplace,thestandardisAAQQ,AKVs.most

peoplewhonevergetoutofline(andeveryonegetsoutoflinesometimes,evenifitsasminimalas

10%,willshifteverymarginalhandtoahanddefinitelyworthplaying).

Aquickchartbelow:(Anypokerstovesimwoulddemonstratethisaswell)

HandGrouping %oftotalhands

AA,KK .9%

AAQQ,AK2.6%

AAJJ,AK/AQ4.2%

AA99,AKAJ6.3%

Occasionallyonecouldarguethataplayerexiststhatgettingallinpreflopwitheven KKisasmall

mistake,butwellholdtruetothedictumthatanyhandwhichtakesplace(acesvskings)isacolddeck

andonewewouldnotratherfocuson.Mainly,ourconstructiveenergyismoreimportantelsewhere.

Also,peoplewiththelastsectionofnutshandsaretruemaniacsandgenerallywontbeatatablefor

verylong,sincetheygobrokequickly.Forfullringitsnotevenallthatbizarretostartwiththefirst

groupofhandsandplanaccordingly.

Sometimestoshiftthefulcrum:

1.Ifaplayeristilted,itspossibletheyremorelikelytomakeadesperateoroddmovepreflop,thusyou

mayenlarge

your

nuts

range.

(although

wed

cut

back

on

the

air

range,

which

well

get

to

next)

2.Ifaplayerisshorter,weregenerallygettingbetterimmediateoddsonceweve3betongettingallin,

whichnaturallyescalatesournutsegment.Again,thiswilllikelycauseustodecreaseourairrange.

3.Ifaplayerisdeeper,(moresothennormal,forexampleoneisusedtoplaying125bbsdeep,andis

nowsuddenly225bbs)weregoingtobegettingfarworseoddsonanallincallif4bet,andvillainis

oftengivinghimselfanawfulprice(hisstack)forpickingupthepot.(Whichissmallerrelativetohis

stack)Thiswillcauseustodecreaseournutsratio;however,alongwithdeeperstacksmakesa4bet

blufffrombothvillain(andus)morepossible,sinceitsnowcorrecttobluff4bet/foldwithalotof

hands,

so

if

you

can

induce

greater

bluff

%,

then

in

turn

you

should

increase

your

nuts

function.

In

the

standardzone,whenyoubotharedeeperthough,thiswillgenerallycauseustoincreaseourairrange.

Theblufffunctionisthefunpartinallofthis.Mainly,therearenumeroussituationswhereweshould

shiftitupordown.Similartoourhandgroupingofnutshands,hereisahelpfulchartwiththebest

candidatesfor3betting.


3/6

HandGrouping %oftotalhandsTier

KQs54s 2.7% 2ndTier(SuitedConnectors)

KJs64s2.4% 2ndTier(Suited1GapConnectors)

KTsJ8s

.9%

2nd

Tier

(Excess

Suited

Broadways)

A9sA6s1.2% 1stTier(NoncoldcallableSuitedAces)

AJsATs .6% 1stTier(StrongBigSuitedAces)

A5sA2s1.2% 1stTier(StrongSmallSuitedAces)

88223.2% 1stTier(Nonnutpocketpairs)

Ajo/ATo 1.8% 3rdTier(StrongeroffsuitAces)

A9oA2o

7.2%

3rd

Tier

(Weaker

offsuit

Aces)

KQoJTo,KJo/QTo,KTo5.4% 3rdTier(OffsuitBroadways)

T9o54o5.4% 3rdTier(OffsuitConnectors)

Ourstandard,again,shouldbeina2:1Air:Nutsratio,withAAQQ,AKasourNutfunction,or2.6%,so

~5.2%shouldinturngotoourAirfunction.KQs54s,KJs64scontribute5.1%,sovoila,thatisourtypical

3betrange.

Thecommonmisconceptionabouttightraisersvslooseraisers:

Manypeoplefeeltheloosersomeoneis,themoreaptyoushouldbetopunishthemforraising

loosely.Thisissomewhattrue;mainly,theyareraisingpoorerhandsonaverage,thereforetheyshould

nothaveagoodenoughhandtofallbackuponwhenreraised.Theexamplebelowisanextreme,but

shouldshowthatthisisfaultylogic:

ApersonwhoonlyraisesAAQQ,AKandonlyplaysAA22,AK/AQraisespreflop.(Theywouldbe

considereda8.3/2.6,also,whichistheepitomeofanit.)However,ifreraised,theyonlycontinuewith

AA.Thus,ouroftheir2.6preflopraise%,theycontinuewithjust.45%ofit,or17%.Iftheyopenina

NL100game

to

4,

and

we

make

it

12,

were

laying

12

(our

3bet)

to

win

5.5.

(The

4they

opened

to,

and

theblinds,whichare1+.5).Thus,inabstraction,ifthisworks45%ofthetime,wellshowprofit.Sinceit

willworkroughly83%ofthetime,werecorrectin3bettinganytwocards.Now,anotherplayerraisesAA22,AKsA2s,KQs54s,AKoATo,KQo.Thisis16.7%oftheirhands.However,theyonlyfold6622,

A5sA2s,andKQotoareraise.Thatisameasely4.4%oftheirhands;inthisscenario,whenwelay12to

win5.5,wedonotshowprofit.(Onthatmove,sincetheydefendalmost75%oftheiropenraises!)Here


4/6

werenottrulycorrecttoraiseanyair,unlesswecanshowprofitpostflopwithit.(Whichwecan)

Hopefullythisexampledemonstratesthenthemaingoalofreraising:

Evenifaplayerisloose,wearemoreconcernedwithhowlooselytheydefendtheiropens,NOThowlooselytheyopenedtobeginwith!Withthatinmind,therearemanycasesinwhichwecanandshouldadjust

our

ratio:

1.Ifwewillbeoutofpositionwhencalled,wegenerallywantabetterhandtofallbackupon.

Whateverratiowecurrentlyhad,wewanttoscaleback;ifwereina2:1ratio,weprobablywantto

havea1.5:1ratio.Ifwehada3:1ratio,wedkickitbackto2:1.Andsoon.

2.Ifvillainopenedfromearlyposition,wegenerallyfigurethattheywilldefendtheiropenmore

frequently.Likewise,iftheyopenedfromlateposition,wefigurethattheywillnotdefendtheiropenas

frequently.Therefore,EPraisesgenerallymakeusscaleback,LPraisesmakeusscaleforward.

3.Ifitsearlyinasession,andvillainhasnohistorywithyou,youcanscaleforwardaratiosincetheywill

haveno

gauge

of

your

frequencies

for

this

sort

of

thing.

Once

caught,

however,

you

probably

should

reverttoanormalratio.

4.Asnotedabove,ifaplayeristilted,theyremoreapttomakeadesperateplay,suchasanoddball

blufforabadsituationalcalldown.Inthatcase,wewanttoscalebackourratio,sinceweexpectthat

theylldefendtheiropenalot.

5.Asnotedabove,ifaplayerisdeeper,theyremoreapttonotcallthereraisewithoutabiggerholding,

unlesstheyareagamblertype.TherationalehereisyourethreateningalargeramountofpureBBs,andthereforeyour3betshouldmakethemscalebackontheir3betdefendrange.Thus,whendeep,we

normallyreverttoatightnutssegment,butveryloosebluffratio.(Suchas4:1or5:1,which

coincidentallywill

probably

still

be

KQs

54s,

KJs

64s

and

then

cold

calling

AK

and

QQ).

6.Ifthereareplayerstoact,weshouldscaledownourblufffrequencyifwefeelaplayerbehindis

capableofmakingabigmoveatthepot.Furthermore,iftheactionendsonus,(suchasbigblindvs

smallblind,whereweshouldbe3bettingalot)wecanexpandourblufffrequencysinceweONLYneedtoworryabouttheopener.

Thegoldenratiothereforeisahighlyflexiblesituationalapplication,andisafunpreflopadjustment

everyoneisabletomake.Ihaveashortquizonit,althoughitshardtogiveoneclearanswer,sodo

yourbest!

Fullring,8handed,3/6NL:

1.Anit(11/4)opensUTGforthepot(3.5xtheBB).Hehasafull100bbstack,andweareUTG+1witha

similarstack.Whattypicalmode,barringnohistoryasideusobservinghisstats,shouldwebein?


5/6

2.Amaniac(27/22)opensUTGfor4xtheBB.Hehas120bb,andweareintheCOwith170bb.Youve

seenhimgetallinwithJJbeforenoproblem,whatmodeshouldwebein?

3.ATAG(15/10)opensfromUTGfor3xtheBB.Hehas250bb,andwecoverhim.Wereinthebutton,

withverytimidblindstoact.

4.Player1nowopensintheCOfor3xtheBB,hehas75bbafterlosingamediumsizedpotwithan

overpair.WereintheBBanditsfoldedtous.

5.Player2nowopensinthebuttonfor3.5xtheBB.Hehas100bb,andwehaveasimilarstack.Werein

theSBwithanaggressiveBBtoact;ifwecoldcall,hewillsqueezeawiderangeofhands.

6.Player3opensintheCOfor4xtheBB,hehas150bb,wehave125bb.Wereonthebutton.

Answers:

1.ThisisaprettyclearAA/KKonlynuts.Andthisisaspotonecouldmakeanargumentforonlyhaving

AAas

nuts,

but

well

ignore

that

again.

So

were

looking

at

.9%

for

nuts.

Were

starting

at

a2:1

ratio

(need1.8%airtofulfillthat)butwithsomanypeopletoactwemaywanttoscaleitdownalittlebit.

Also,withhimopeningfromUTG,wecanscaleitdownagain.Finally,withnohistory,hemaygiveus

creditforacesveryoftenunlesshesseenuseverreraiseinthisspotwithoutthem.Idprobablysetmyratioaround1.5:1(air:nuts)althoughIdconsiderleavingitat2:1butcoldcallingKK.(For~1%fluff

hands) ThusIdpick4orsohandsfromthesuitedconnectorbunchtoreraise,possibly54s,65s,76s,

and87s,andbecontentwiththat.Idalsomakeit10.5xthebb,aswell,layingapriceof10.5:5.

2.WewouldleaveournormalnutsrangeofAAQQ,AK,howeverwecouldtrulyconsiderratchetingit

downanotch.Sinceitsfullring,though,andhedidopenfromUTG,Iwouldntbeabletomakethat

decision*yet*,

but

Id

be

close

to

making

it.

So

2.6%

nuts.

Since

the

effective

stack

is

still

just

120bbs,

itsnotdeepenoughtowarrantcuttingbackthenutsegmentaswell.Herewehaveposition,butminor

historyifheknowswhatweveseenoutofhim.SincewereintheCOtherearestillplayerstoact,soId

probablybefinejustleavingourstandardrangeof2:1air:nuts,withAAQQ,AKvs.KQs54s,KJs64s.Id

makeit12xthebb,aswell,layingapriceof12:5.5.

3.WithoutadoubtournutssegmentwouldbeAA/KKonly.Werenot3bettingQQwiththeintentionof

feltingit.Wemayactually3betAK,(goingbacktoalwaysrepopthetighterraises)butlaughably

attachthattoourbluffsegment.Interestingly,though,becausewewillhaveabsolutepositiononthis

hand,nottoomanypeoplearelefttoact,andyoubothareverydeep,Idlikelybeina4:1oreven5:1

airr:nuts

ratio.

This

actually

isnt

all

that

breathtaking,

since

what

that

means

is

well

be

3betting

AA/KK,

andthenourstandardKQs54s,KJs64s.Weregoingtomakeit9xthebb,forafinalpriceof9:4.5

4.Nowthatthegameissuddenlyshorthanded,inthecontextofitsbeenfoldedtoaMPraiser,wedo

notneedtogiveasmuchcredittoouropponents.Interestingly,althoughouropponenthereisvery

tight,wehavetwonicethingsgoingforustoenlargeoursmallnutsrange:Villainonlyhas75bb(hes

short)andhepossiblyisontilt.(Havingjustlostthatpot)Also,inthisdynamic,(theCOsteal)wedont

mindgettingintoasmallwar.Thus,IdsetmyfeltrangeforAAQQ,AKandbehappyaboutit.Forour


6/6

bluffsegment,wehavedifferentfactorsherepointingindifferentdirections.First,wereoutofposition.

Second,opponentistilting.Bothsignssayweshouldscaleback;if2:1isroutine,weshouldscaleto

1.5:1thenbackto1:1.However,thisisaLPraise,andwehavenooneelsetoact.Iwouldntmind

leavinga1.5:1ratio,andrepoptheSCsandhalfthe1gapSCs.(LikeKQs54s,KJsJ9s)Idmakeit12xthe

bbaswell,forapriceof11(wehave1bbdead):4.5.

5.HerewerefinallyinthefeltrangeofJJ+,AQ+.WerenotdeepatallanditstheLPdynamic.Sowere

inthe4.6%camp.Forourbluffsegment,wereoutofposition,anaggressiveplayertoact,andaguy

wholikelydefendsthatreraisewithpositionliberally.Wedprobablybecontenttoleavea1:1ratio,

whichnotsurprisinglywillmakeourrangeAAJJ,AK/AQfornuts,andthenthestandardKQs54s,KJs

64sbluff.Werelaying13.5(wehave.5bbdead):5.

6.StandardfeltrangeofAAQQ,AK.Ifhesbeenincrediblyaggressiveinthesespotsorhasmade

moves,wecandipdown,butwerecontenttoleaveitatthis.However,lotsoffactorsgoingforusfor

ourbluffratio;wehaveposition,wereatinybitdeeper,hemadeaLPraise,wehavenohistory,theres

noreasontoassumehesagamblingtype,andhesplayinghissolidgame.Ournormalratiois2:1,at

thispoint(Especiallyiftheblindsareinert)weregoingtogotothemaxboundaryto5:1.Or,~13%of

hands!Crazy,eh?MeanswerelikelycoldcallingJJ22,AQsA2s,repoppingthehandsaboveforvalue,

and3bettingawiderangeofbluffhands:13%isthetier2stuffandoffsuitaces.SoitlookslikeKQs54s,

KJs64s,KTsJ8s,AQoA2o.

Air vs Bluff

Documents

Transcript of Air vs Bluff