Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 ... · Document title Air Quality...

Gatwick Airport Limited

London Heathrow Airport

Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 – AC Growth Forecasts

AQ/LHR-OP/09

Issue | 27 May 2015

This report takes into account the particular

instructions and requirements of our client.

It is not intended for and should not be relied

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is undertaken to any third party.

Job number 235135-00

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd

13 Fitzroy Street

London

W1T 4BQ

United Kingdom

www.arup.com

AQ/LHR-OP/09 | Issue | 27 May 2015

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Contents

Page

Executive Summary 3

1 Introduction 5

1.1 Description of scheme 5

2 Air Quality Legislation 6

2.1 European air quality management 6

2.2 Environment Act 1995 6

2.3 Air quality standards 6

2.4 Compliance with the Air Quality Directive 7

3 Planning Policy and Guidance 8

3.1 National policy and guidance 8

3.2 Other relevant policy and guidance 10

4 Existing air quality conditions 11

5 Methodology 14

5.1 Assessment scenarios 14

5.2 Study area and sensitive receptors 14

5.3 Data sources 15

5.4 Emissions inventory 16

5.5 Model setup and results processing 20

6 Predicting Future Air Quality 24

6.1 Adjustment of Background concentrations 25

6.2 Highway England Long Term Trends (LTT) 25

7 Assessment 27

7.1 Summary of results 27

7.2 A30 London Road 28

7.3 A315 London Road 28

7.4 A4 Great West Road 29

7.5 Cranford 30

7.6 East Bedfont 31

7.7 Harlington 32

7.8 Heston 32

7.9 Hounslow 33

7.10 Stanwell 34

7.11 West Drayton and Harmondsworth 35






7.12 Modelled grid area 36

8 Comparison against PCM predictions 37

9 Conclusions 39

List of Appendices 40

Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 – AC Growth

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Executive Summary

This report describes the results of an assessment of air quality impacts during operation of the proposed North West Runway (NWR) scheme at Heathrow Airport. Two different opening years have been assessed with associated passenger throughput and air transport movements; an opening year of 2025 at 98mppa and approximately 564k ATMs and an opening year of 2029 at 102mppa and approximately 588k ATMs, following the Airport Commission’s growth forecasts.

This report adds to previous work carried out by Arup that has examined the operation of Heathrow in 2025 and 2029 using HAL’s own predictions of passenger numbers and ATMs and two further reports examining the air quality impacts during the associated construction periods. These previous reports demonstrated that there was a risk of continuing exceedances of the air quality limit values and significant air quality impacts during the construction periods.

Air quality is a key issue when considering an increase in capacity at Heathrow; current nitrogen dioxide concentrations in the area exceed the UK objective and EU limit values and are expected to continue to do so for at least 15 years into the future. Recently released figures from the Government confirm that the area around Heathrow is likely to be one of the most polluted locations in the UK in terms of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in 2030.

Therefore an assessment has been made using standard air quality modelling techniques to predict nitrogen dioxide concentrations at key locations around the airport. This modelling used a standard approach using emission data and background pollutant concentrations from Defra sources.

To assess air quality in the future requires assumptions to be made about the emission rates and background concentrations of pollutants. This is because there have been several attempts to reduce pollutant emissions largely through increasing emission controls on motor vehicles. Nearly all previous predictions have proved to be somewhat optimistic as emission control technology has not worked as well as anticipated. Future predictions of pollutant concentrations are therefore based on estimates of how well future control technology will deliver improvements.

This also leads to uncertainty in the background pollutant concentrations used in the modelling assessment; if emission rates from motor vehicles do not reduce as quickly as expected, then neither will background pollutant concentrations. As a result, any assessment of future air quality conditions requires that these uncertainties are taken into account.

This report, therefore examines these uncertainties in future conditions by applying commonly applied approaches used widely in the air quality assessment community. The two approaches used in this study are firstly using background concentrations from earlier years than the year of assessment (i.e. higher concentrations) and secondly using the long term trends approach developed by Highways England.

Air quality modelling has been undertaken on selected ‘hot spot’ areas and a modelled grid around the airport. Emissions from aircraft engines, airport operations and road traffic have been assessed for the two different opening year scenarios (2025 and 2029) to calculate future concentrations of nitrogen dioxide. Sensitivity tests have also been undertaken using earlier year background


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concentrations (2017 and 2021) to reflect the uncertainty in future air quality, while the Highways England long term trends approach has also been applied.

The results of the assessment demonstrate that there are predicted exceedances of the limit value for all scenarios tested at the West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area and for some scenarios at other locations. In addition, predicted concentrations for some locations are very close to the limit value (being within less than 1µg/m3 of the limit value) particularly when using the Highways England long term trends approach. This illustrates the high risk of an exceedance of the limit value should a third runway be constructed at Heathrow.

Defra has also carried out modelling of future NO2 concentrations around Heathrow using their PCM model that is used to report compliance with limit values to Europe. There results show that in both 2025 and 2030 annual NO2 concentrations are well above the 40µg/m3 limit value. Comparison of the results from modelling undertaken by Arup and the PCM model shows that the PCM model predicts concentrations that are some 25% higher. If the results reported in this report were scaled up to account for this underestimate, more exceedances of the limit value would be identified.


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1 Introduction

Ove Arup and Partners Ltd (Arup) has been commissioned by Gatwick Airport Ltd to carry out an air quality assessment of the proposed use of a potential third runway at Heathrow Airport in London.

Existing data sources from the Airports Commission (AC) and the scheme promoters’ consultation reports have been examined and used as appropriate, along with road and air traffic forecasts provided by the Arup transport team and ICF International respectively.

This report assesses the potential air quality impacts from an extra runway at Heathrow Airport during operation in two different opening years: 2025 and 2029. This report builds on previous assessments carried out by Arup that have examined the operational air quality impacts at Heathrow using HAL’s own growth projects and work examining the air quality impacts during construction.

1.1 Description of scheme

Heathrow Airport is located in west London within the London Borough of Hillingdon (LBHi). The M25 motorway is located to the west of the airport and the M4 motorway is located to the north. The airport is surrounded by rural land, commercial and residential properties and a number of reservoirs to the south and west.

The main areas of residential dwellings in the vicinity of the airport that are likely to be affected by the operation of a third runway are Cranford, Harmondsworth, Sipson, Harlington, West Drayton, Hatton Cross, East Bedfont and Stanwell. Other areas along the main road network heading into and out of London from the airport would also be affected by the additional traffic flows from the increased airport capacity brought by the operation of a third runway.

There are currently two operational runways at Heathrow Airport. Access to the airport is currently provided through the M4 spur to the north and the slip road coming off the M25, giving direct access to Terminal 5.

There are two proposals being considered to increase the airport’s capacity; a new North West Runway (NWR) proposed by Heathrow Airport Ltd (HAL) and an Extended Northern Runway (ENR) proposed by Heathrow Hub. Both options would be likely to have a similar impact upon local air quality.

This air quality assessment considers the operation of the proposed NWR and associated transport infrastructure, using the AC’s Low Cost is King carbon traded (LCC CT) forecasts, as shown in Table 1. The assessment has been undertaken for two different potential years of opening of the NWR in 2025 and 2029.

Table 1 Heathrow NWR air forecasts

Opening year Passenger capacity Air transport movements

2025/26 98 mppa 563,541

2029/30 102 mppa 587,566


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2 Air Quality Legislation

2.1 European air quality management

In 1996 the European Commission published the Air Quality Framework Directive on ambient air quality assessment and management (96/62/EC)1. This Directive defined the policy framework for 12 air pollutants known to have harmful effects on human health and the environment. Limit values (pollutant concentrations not to be exceeded by a certain date) for each specified pollutant were set through a series of Daughter Directives, including Directive 1999/30/EC (the 1st Daughter Directive) 2 which sets limit values for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (amongst other pollutants) in ambient air.

In May 2008 the Directive 2008/50/EC3 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe came into force. This Directive consolidates the above (apart from the 4th Daughter Directive) and makes provision for extended compliance deadlines for NO2. The Directive was transposed into national legislation in England by the Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010 4 . The Secretary of State (SoS) for the Environment has the duty of ensuring the air quality limit values are complied with.

2.2 Environment Act 1995

Part IV of the Environment Act 19955 places a duty on the SoS for the Environment to develop, implement and maintain an air quality strategy with the aim of reducing atmospheric emissions and improving air quality. The national air quality strategy (NAQS) for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 6 provides the framework for ensuring that air quality limit values are complied with based on a combination of international, national and local measures to reduce emissions and improve air quality. This includes the statutory duty, also under Part IV of the Environment Act 1995, for local authorities to undergo a process of local air quality management and declare Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) where necessary.

2.3 Air quality standards

The air quality limit values set by the European legislation and transposed into national law (UK objectives) are based on recommended guideline values from the World Health Organisation (WHO). Some pollutants have standards expressed as annual average concentrations due to the chronic way in which they affect health or the natural environment (i.e. effects occur after a prolonged period of exposure to elevated concentrations) and others have standards expressed as 24-hour, 1-hour or 15-minute average concentrations due to the acute way in which they affect

1 Directive 96/62/EC of 27 September 1996 on ambient air quality assessment and management 2 Directive 1999/30/EC of 22 April 1999 relating to limit values for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen

dioxide and oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter and lead in ambient air 3 Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient

air quality and cleaner air for Europe 4 The Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010, SI 2010/1001 5 Environment Act 1995, Chapter 25, Part IV Air Quality 6 The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, Volume 1, July

2007


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health or the natural environment (i.e. after a relatively short period of exposure). Some pollutants have standards expressed in terms of both long-term and short-term concentrations.

In this report the term ‘air quality standard’ has been used to refer to both the UK objectives and European limit values. Table 2 sets out the air quality standards for the pollutant relevant to this study (NO2). This is the main pollutant associated with road transport and aircraft engine emissions and likely to exceed or be at risk of exceeding the limit values in the future.

Table 2 Air quality standards for NO2

Pollutant Averaging period Air quality standard

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) Annual mean 40µg/m3

1-hour mean 200µg/m3 [1]

[1] not to be exceeded more than 18 times a year (99.8th percentile)

2.4 Compliance with the Air Quality Directive

As discussed in Section 2.1, the EU Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC)3 contains a number of mandatory limit values for which compliance was required by 2010. DEFRA reports to the European Commission on annual basis on compliance with these limit values. For the purpose of reporting, the UK has been divided into 43 zones and agglomerations; Heathrow Airport is located within the Greater London zone.

The European Commission has allowed derogations for a number of zones to demonstrate compliance with the limit values up to 2015, including the Greater London zone for annual mean NO2 concentrations. However this zone has failed to comply with the limit values over the past years. In 2012, DEFRA reported annual mean NO2 concentrations of 152μg/m3 for the Greater London zone. Based on their latest estimates, compliance with the air quality standards within London is unlikely to occur prior to 20307. DEFRA estimates that annual mean NO2 concentrations in this zone will be up to a maximum of 56μg/m3 in 2025 and 49μg/m3 in 2030.

This widespread non-compliance in London puts the UK in breach of its air quality obligations and subject to legal proceedings by the European Commission. This highlights the importance of the UK meeting the limit values in all zones and agglomerations as soon as possible and ensuring that no further delays to compliance occur.

7 DEFRA (2014) Updated projections for Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) compliance, Available from:

http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/no2ten/index [Accessed: February 2015]

http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/no2ten/index


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3 Planning Policy and Guidance

3.1 National policy and guidance

The land use planning process is a key means of improving air quality, particularly in the long term, through the strategic location and design of new developments. Any air quality consideration that relates to land use and its development can be a material planning consideration in the determination of planning applications, dependent upon the details of the proposed development.

3.1.1 National Planning Policy Framework (2012)

The National Planning Policy Framework8 (NPPF) was published in March 2012 with the purpose of planning to achieve sustainable development. Paragraph 124 of the NPPF on air quality states that:

“Planning policies should sustain compliance with and contribute towards EU limit values

or national objectives for pollutants, taking into account the presence of Air Quality

Management Areas and the cumulative impacts on air quality from individual sites in local

areas. Planning decisions should ensure that any new development in Air Quality

Management Areas is consistent with the local air quality action plan.”

3.1.2 National Planning Practice Guidance (2014)

As part of the NPPF, planning practice guidance on various topics was recently published9. In relation to air quality, the guidance refers to the significance of air quality assessments to determine the impacts of proposed developments in the area and describes the role of local and neighbourhood plans with regard to air quality. It also provides a flowchart method to assist local authorities determine how considerations of air quality fit into the development management process.

3.1.3 National Policy Statement for National Networks

The National Policy Statement (NPS) for National Networks was published in December 201410 and set the Government’s policies for the future development of Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects on the national road and rail networks. In relation to air quality, the NPS identifies the need for an assessment to be included in an ES and states the considerations that the SoS should take when making a planning decision on such projects.

The emphasis is placed on projects within or adjacent to AQMAs, whether air quality standards are likely to be exceeded and whether significant impacts or deterioration in air quality is likely to be caused by the project in a zone/ agglomeration where there are already breaches of the air quality limit values. In those instances, the NPS advises that the applicant should collaborate with the relevant local authorities to agree on appropriate mitigation measures.

8 Department for communities and local government (2012) National Planning Policy Framework 9 Department for communities and local government (2014) Planning Practice Guidance: Air

Quality 10 Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement for National Networks, London:

DfT


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The NPS also emphasises the use of DEFRA’s future national projections, in relation to future emissions, traffic and vehicle fleet. It states that the ‘assessment should be consistent with this but may include more detailed modelling to demonstrate local impacts’.

When making a decision, the SoS should consider the following parameters:

the forecast air quality impacts in the vicinity of the scheme and over a wider area;

whether the scheme is within or adjacent to an AQMA or an area of exceedance of the limit values or national objectives, or whether it might have potential impacts on nature conservation sites; and

whether the scheme is anticipated to lead to significant air quality impacts and/or lead to deterioration in a zone/agglomeration already in breach of the limit values.

The NPS directs that the SoS should refuse consent if the scheme is anticipated to result in a compliant zone/agglomeration becoming non-compliant with the air quality Directive (2008/50/EC) or if air quality impacts are anticipated to substantially affect an existing non-compliant zone/agglomeration preventing from compliance within the designated timescales. In relation to mitigation, the SoS should consider whether the proposed mitigation measures of the scheme would be acceptable.

The NPS also notes that air quality considerations are likely to be particularly relevant where a proposal brings about changes to exceedances of the limit values or where they impact on nature conservation sites. It instructs the SoS to give air quality considerations “substantial weight” where they lead to a deterioration in air quality in a zone/agglomeration.

3.1.4 Aviation Policy Framework (2013)

The Aviation Policy Framework 11 reinstates the Government’s commitment to achieve full compliance with European air quality standards. It also states that the policy in relation to air quality is to “seek improved international standards to reduce emissions from aircraft and vehicles”. It further identifies road transport as the main source of pollution around airports, as emissions from aircraft fall off significantly from the runway.

3.1.5 Local Air Quality Management Policy Guidance (2009)

Policy guidance note LAQM.PG(09)12 provides additional guidance on the links between transport and air quality. LAQM.PG(09) describes how road transport contributes to local air pollution and how transport measures may bring improvements in air quality. Key transport related Government initiatives are set out, including regulatory measures and standards to reduce vehicle emissions and improve fuels, tax-based measures and the development of an integrated transport strategy.

11 Department for Transport (2013) Aviation Policy Framework 12 DEFRA (2009) Local Air Quality Management Policy Guidance PG(09)


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LAQM.PG(09) also provides guidance on the links between air quality and the land use planning system. The guidance advises that air quality considerations should be integrated within the planning process at the earliest stage and is intended to aid local authorities in developing action plans to deal with specific air quality problems and create strategies to improve air quality. It summarises the main ways in which land use planning system can help deliver compliance with the air quality objectives.

3.2 Other relevant policy and guidance

3.2.1 ICAO Airport Air Quality Manual (2011)

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has published a manual for assessing air quality at airports 13 . This document describes the methods for calculating emissions during different operating modes of the aircraft, as well as different sources of air pollution found at airports.

13 ICAO (2011) Airport Air Quality Manual


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4 Existing air quality conditions

The air quality around Heathrow is influenced mainly by the road traffic emissions from the large surrounding road network. The M25, M4 and A4, are major sources of air pollutants in the local area.

The emissions associated with onsite airport activity and emissions from aircraft have a more localised impact with highest concentrations from these sources being located close to the airport boundary.

LBHi declared an AQMA in 2003 for exceedances of the annual mean NO2 air quality objective designated for human health. The Hillingdon AQMA is located in the south of the borough, encompassing the whole area of the borough from the southern boundary to the Chiltern-Marylebone railway line to the north. Heathrow is therefore located within this AQMA.

There are currently 12 continuous monitoring sites around Heathrow airport and a wide network of diffusion tubes operated by the relevant local authorities (Figure A.1). Monitoring data for the continuous monitors over the past 10 years are presented in Table A.1. Most of the sites record NO2 concentrations below the air quality standard. There are four sites however that have been consistently exceeding the standard over the past decade (Figure A.2).

The ‘Heathrow LHR2’ site is located within the airport boundary on the Northern Perimeter Road and is likely to be mainly influenced by the airport operations, i.e. aircraft emissions during the LTO phase especially from the northern runway and vehicle emissions from the car parking facilities in this area. NO2 concentrations at this site have been well above the air quality standard averaging 51μg/m3 over the past 10 years. The ‘Hillingdon Oxford Avenue’ site is located along the A4 close to the north-eastern boundary of the airport and is likely to be influence by both the airport operations and road traffic emissions. NO2 concentrations at this site have been close to the air quality standard averaging 41μg/m3 over the past years. They have fallen below the standard in the past two years and were below the standard in 2005 and 2010, but not in 2006-2009 or 2011-2012.

The other two sites are located along or close to busy roads, so are likely to be mainly influenced by road traffic emissions. The ‘London Hillingdon’ site is located in West Drayton just to the north of the M4 motorway, while the ‘Hillingdon Hayes’ site is located to the north of the M4, along North Hyde Road close the The Parkway. NO2 concentrations at both sites have been well above the air quality standard averaging 52μg/m3 over the past 10 years.

Figure 1 presents the bivariate polar plots for the two sites close to the airport (‘LHR2’ and ‘Hillingdon Oxford Avenue’, as well as the ‘Harmondsworth’ site for comparison. The plots use recorded wind speed direction and pollutant concentrations data to show the direction of potential pollution sources at each site and how these are influenced by wind speed. It can be observed that the ‘LHR2’ site is highly influenced by the airport operations. A strong influence can be seen from the southwest with higher concentrations at high wind speeds. These elevated concentrations are likely to be the result of the higher wind speed reducing the buoyancy of the exhaust gases from aircraft, keeping them closer to ground level. The ‘Hillingdon Oxford Avenue’ site is mainly influenced by the A4, but the airport influence can also be seen from the southwest. The ‘Harmondsworth’ site is located at almost equal distance from the airport and the M4 and M25 motorways. From


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the polar plot it can be observed that the main influence at this site is the local road network, rather than the airport or the motorways.

Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 – AC Growth Forecasts



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Figure 1 Bivariate polar plots for three continuous monitoring sites

Runway Airport

North Perimeter

Road and car parks Local roads A4






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5 Methodology

The overall approach to the air quality assessment comprises:

A review of the Airports Commission consultation documents and appendices;

A review of the existing air quality conditions in the vicinity of the airport, and identification of ‘hot spot’ areas for detailed assessment;

Determination of the airport and road traffic emissions;

Assessment of the potential changes in air quality arising from the future operations of the airport.

Operational air quality impacts from the scheme arise principally as a result of increased aircraft traffic and road traffic changes on the local road network. The effects of this increase in aircraft and road traffic have been assessed using the ADMS atmospheric dispersion model. Annual mean concentrations of NO2 have been estimated for comparison with the relevant air quality standards as mentioned in Section 2. The following sections detail the inputs and processes used in this assessment.

5.1 Assessment scenarios

The assessment scenarios can be summarised as follows:

Baseline 2012;

Reference case 2025 and 2029;

Operation 2025 and 2029.

The baseline 2012 scenario has been used to calculate concentrations for the existing situation around the airport and compare with local monitoring sites. The reference case scenarios refer to the future scenarios without the NWR scheme, assuming a cap of 480k ATMs as per current planning condition of the airport. The two operation scenarios refer to two different potential years of opening of the NWR scheme. The passenger and air forecasts for all the assessment scenarios are presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Air forecasts for assessment scenarios

Assessment scenario Passenger capacity Air transport movements

Baseline 2012 70 mppa 468,924

Reference case 2025 84 mppa 480,000

Operation 2025 98 mppa 563,541

Reference case 2029 88 mppa 480,000

Operation 2029 102 mppa 587,566

5.2 Study area and sensitive receptors

A study area of ‘hot spots’ around the airport was used in the assessment, and relevant sensitive receptors were identified at each of these ‘hot spot’ areas. These ‘hot spots’ were determined by a review of areas with high air quality concentrations determined by local air quality monitoring. The local air quality






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monitoring results were mapped using GIS for the boroughs around Heathrow. Monitoring results where concentrations at relevant receptor locations were monitored at above 50µg/m3 were identified. These locations would be of particular concern as in 2025 there is a risk that concentrations will not have fallen by the 10µg/m3 required to meet the air quality objectives. As such, when the third runway is operational, increasing Heathrow’s capacity, it is likely these locations will be at risk of exceeding the air quality objective for annual mean NO2.

Pollutant concentrations have been predicted at selected receptor locations which were chosen to represent worst-case public exposure. The determined ‘hot spot’ locations and identified receptors are shown in Figure A.3.

Concentrations have also been forecast in a grid of 7km by 6km around the airport at 100m spacing, in order to generate contour plots of pollutant concentrations close to the main pollution sources.

5.3 Data sources

The following data sources have been used to determine baseline and future conditions of air quality in the study area:

Review and assessment reports and local air quality monitoring data from the surrounding local authorities;

The UK Air Information Resource website14;

Assessment documents15 from Heathrow Airport Limited’s submission to the Airports Commission;

Assessment reports16 by the Airports Commission and their consultants17;

The ICAO aircraft engine emissions databank18;

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) future predictions for Hong Kong International Airport19

The JP Airline Fleets 2013/2014 world airline fleet directory20;

Ordnance Survey (OS) AddressBasePlus data;

Traffic data from Arup transport consultants.

14 http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/ [Accessed: February 2015] 15 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/additional-airport-capacity-heathrow-airport-

north-west-runway 16 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/airports-commission-publishes-consultation-on-

shortlisted-options-for-a-new-runway 17 https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/airports-commission-air-quality-assessment 18 EASA (2015) ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank, Issue 21b, Available from:

https://easa.europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank [Accessed:

February 2015] 19 IATA (2014) HKIA long-term traffic and emission forecasts – Emissions forecasting report

(version 3) 20 http://www.flightglobalshop.com/jp-directories-cds/jp-airline-fleets-2013/2014-

cd/prod_536.html

http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/additional-airport-capacity-heathrow-airport-north-west-runway

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/additional-airport-capacity-heathrow-airport-north-west-runway

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/airports-commission-publishes-consultation-on-shortlisted-options-for-a-new-runway

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/airports-commission-publishes-consultation-on-shortlisted-options-for-a-new-runway

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/airports-commission-air-quality-assessment

http://www.flightglobalshop.com/jp-directories-cds/jp-airline-fleets-2013/2014-cd/prod_536.html

http://www.flightglobalshop.com/jp-directories-cds/jp-airline-fleets-2013/2014-cd/prod_536.html






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5.4 Emissions inventory

An inventory of annual emissions was built for the following pollution sources:

Aircraft main engines in the landing and take-off (LTO) phases;

Aircraft Auxiliary Power Units (APUs);

Ground Support Equipment (GSE), namely vehicles within the airport site which are associated with the aircraft turn-around and the runway maintenance;

Other airport sources, including the airport heating plant;

Road vehicles on the selected roads on the local road network around the airport.

The modelled sources for the reference and with scheme scenarios are presented in Figure A.4 and Figure A.5 respectively.

Aircraft emissions

Emissions from the aircraft have been calculated using available Heathrow fleet data for 2011 and the predicted future fleet mix for 2030. The fleet mix in the peak day of 2030 has been used to derive the ATMs for the assessment scenarios, assuming that the same mix would be applicable. Table 4 presents the 2030 peak day ATMs and fleet mix corresponding to 570k, the percentages for each aircraft type and the resulting ATMs for all assessment scenarios.

For the future operation scenarios, the split between the different engine types from the aircraft was derived from the detailed 2011 fleet data, in conjunction with the available age profile of the global aircraft fleet and a fleet age model to account for engine deterioration and fuel improvements. Future engine variants were also applied, taking into account reduced NOx emissions due to improved combustion systems and fuel efficiency.

For existing aircraft types, turbofan engine emission factors and fuel rates were taken from the ICAO databank (issue 21b)18. For future aircraft types, turbofan engine emission factors and fuel rates were taken from the IATA predictions19. The modes within the LTO phase were represented as volume sources in the air quality model, covering only emissions close to the ground and within the airport boundary. The times for each mode were taken from the 2008/9 emissions inventory of the airport21.

For the approach of the arriving aircraft, emissions were calculated using a 30% thrust for the engines. For the landing of the arriving aircraft, emissions were calculated using a 7% thrust for the engines and a time in mode of 58.8sec. For the taxiing in and out of arriving and departing aircraft, emissions were calculated using a 7% thrust for the engines. It was assumed that all aircraft taxi with all engines in power and emissions were modelled at the taxiways between the runways and stands. The time in mode was calculated using an average travelling speed of 7m/s.

For departing aircraft, hold emissions were calculated using a 7% thrust for the engines and a time in mode of approximately 8min. Hold positions were modelled at the outer edges of the taxiways at the edges of each runway. For the take-off of

21 AEA (2010) Heathrow Airport Emissions Inventory 2008/9, AEAT/ENV/R/2906 Issue 2






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the departing aircraft, emissions were calculated using an 85% thrust for the engines and a time in mode of 42 sec, taken from the ICAO manual13. For the climb of the departing aircraft, emissions were also calculated using an 85% thrust for the engines.

Figure 2 Modelled airport sources and aircraft modes





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Table 4 Predicted aircraft movements and fleet mix for assessment scenarios

Aircraft

type Description 2030 peak day % of total fleet 2012 ATMs

2025/2029 Reference

Case ATMS

2025 Operation

ATMs

2029 Operation

ATMs

319 A319 current engine option 27 2% 117,231 7,831 9,194 9,586



N19 A319 new generation 248 15% 0 71,927 84,446 88,046



351 A350-1000 current engine 12 1% 0 3,480 4,086 4,260

358 A350-800 current engine 18 1% 0 5,221 6,129 6,390

359 A350-900 current engine 30 2% 0 8,701 10,215 10,651

35X A350 XWB 58 4% 0 16,822 19,749 20,591

772 Boeing 777-200 0 0% 46,892 0 0 0

77W Boeing 777-300ER 0 0% 23,446 0 0 0

778 Boeing new generation 52 3% 0 15,082 17,706 18,461

77Z Boeing 777-300 0 0% 23,446 0 0 0

788 Boeing 787-800 (Dreamliner type) 149 9% 0 43,215 50,736 52,899

789 Boeing 787-900 (Dreamliner type) 157 9% 0 45,535 53,460 55,739

388 A380-800 current engine 112 7% 56,271 32,483 38,137 39,763

7XX Boeing new generation 96 6% 0 27,843 32,689 34,082

E90 Embraer 190 4 0% 23,446 1,160 1,362 1,420

E95 Embraer 195 6 0% 14,068 1,740 2,043 2,130

TOTAL 468,924 480,000 563,541 587,566






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Auxiliary Power Units (APUs)

APUs were modelled at the stands and were represented as area sources in the model. Emissions from APUs were calculated based on the running time of the unit, the fuel consumption and relevant emission factors.

Emissions for NOx were taken from the IATA predictions19 based on the 2011 Heathrow fleet data. As determined in the 2008/9 emissions inventory21, it was assumed that APUs were running 33min/LTO for narrow-bodied and 88min/LTO for wide-bodied aircraft. As such no allowance was made for the use of Fixed Electrical Ground Power (FEGP).

Ground Support Equipment (GSE)

GSE at the airport includes a range of different vehicles and plant, such as belt-loaders, tugs, towers, hydraulic lift platforms and de-icing units. Detailed information on fuel use by vehicle type and emissions standard were taken from the AC’s report for the 2009 base case. The fuel data was scaled up based on the passenger throughput for each assessment scenario. It was assumed that existing pre-Euro and Euro 1/I vehicles would be compliant with Euro 5/V emissions in the future, while existing Euro 2/II – 4/IV vehicles would be compliant with Euro 6/VI emissions in the future. All new vehicles and plant would also be compliant with Euro 6/VI and Stage IIIa emissions. Emissions were represented as area sources in the model.

Energy plant

There are various buildings within the airport encompassing an energy plant for their heat and energy demand. As a simplification in the model, emissions were represented at the two largest energy plant locations. These were the new energy plant (biomass and natural gas boilers) near the southern boundary and the maintenance area near the eastern boundary of the airport. Emissions from other buildings within the airport were divided between these two locations.

Annual NOx emissions were calculated for natural gas fired boiler systems, using the annual fuel energy input data from the 2008/9 emissions inventory21. The fuel energy input was scaled based on the passenger throughput for each assessment scenario and an emission factor of 74g/GJ was taken from the EMEP/EEA emission inventory guidebook22. For the new energy centre, NOx emissions for the biomass and the natural gas boilers were taken from the Amec report23 produced for the Greater London Authority (GLA).

Road Traffic Emissions

The effects of traffic changes from the scheme have been assessed using the ADMS-Roads v3.4 atmospheric dispersion model. The assessment follows the

22 EMEP/EEA emission inventory guidebook 2013 (1.A.4) 23 Amec (2013) Greater London Authority Air Quality Support: Biomass and CHP emissions

standards






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methodology set out in DEFRA’s Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance24.

Pollutant concentrations are forecast at locations along the local road network likely to be affected by the proposed scheme. The model calculates one-hour average concentrations with results processed to calculate the annual mean concentration for comparison with the air quality standards.

Traffic data was provided by the Arup transport consultants for the wider road network around Heathrow. The data consisted of 24-hour Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flows, Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) flows and average daily speeds.

Emission rates for all road sources were calculated based on the data provided and using the UK DEFRA Emissions Factor Toolkit (EFT) v6.0.225.

The airport car parks were not included in the model as a pollution source, since no detailed data was available. However, due to the location of the car parks close to the airport it is not anticipated they would cause any significant impacts to local air quality at sensitive receptors.

5.5 Model setup and results processing

5.5.1 Meteorological data

The local impacts of air pollutant releases vary widely according to the prevailing weather conditions. Wind speed is an important factor in diluting pollutant releases and wind direction is crucial for determining which location pollutant emissions may impact.

In order for the modelling exercise to be representative of local conditions and to predict long-term averages, the dispersion model requires representative meteorological data. A sensitivity test using five years of meteorological data (2010 – 2014) from Heathrow airport was undertaken. Most dispersion models do not use meteorological data if they relate to calm wind conditions, as dispersion of air pollutants requires more complex calculations in these circumstances. The ADMS suite treats calm wind conditions by setting the minimum wind speed to 0.75m/s. DEFRA’s TG09 guidance24 recommends that the meteorological data file is checked to confirm the number of missing hours and calm hours that cannot be used by the dispersion model. This is particularly important when considering predictions of high percentiles and the number of exceedances. The guidance recommends that meteorological data should only be used if the percentage of usable hours is greater than 75% and preferably 90%.

Table 5 presents the available data from the five year dataset of meteorological observations. It can be observed that all years have more than 90% of usable data; therefore all datasets are adequate for use in the model. Figure A.12 presents the windroses for the five meteorological years, where it can be observed that prevailing winds are from the southwest. Also, it can be observed that 2010 follows a different pattern than the other years. This was because 2010 was an unusually

24 DEFRA (2009) Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance (TG09) 25 DEFRA, Emissions Factor Toolkit for Vehicle Emissions, Available from:

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk [Accessed: January 2015]

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/






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cold year, especially during the winter months. A comparison of mean temperatures for 2010 and 2013 with a 30-year period (1981–2010) is presented in Figure A.13.

Model results were obtained for the five year meteorological dataset and a comparison undertaken at discrete locations within the study area. It was observed that 2010 and 2013 provided higher concentrations than the other years. However, due to the unusual weather conditions in 2010, the 2013 meteorological dataset was selected for inclusion in the model to represent the impact during a more typical year.

Table 5 Meteorological data statistics

Year Missing hours Calm hours Usable data

2010 13 146 98%

2011 0 125 99%

2012 0 133 98%

2013 32 159 98%

2014 15 212 97%

5.5.2 Other model parameters

The extent of mechanical turbulence (and hence, mixing) in the atmosphere is affected by the roughness of the surface/ground over which the air is passing. Typical surface roughness values range from 1.5m (for cities, forests and industrial areas) to 0.0001m (for water or sandy deserts). In this assessment, the general land use in the area around the meteorological station can be described as agricultural with a corresponding surface roughness of 0.2m. Land around the local area is described as cities and woodlands with a corresponding surface roughness of 1m.

Another model parameter is the Monin-Obukhov length, which describes the stability of the atmosphere. Typical values range from 2m to 20m for rural areas. In urban areas though, where traffic and buildings cause the generation of more heat, these values are higher. For this model, a minimum length of 30m was used, representing ‘cities, large towns’.

5.5.3 NOx to NO2 conversion

The model predicts roadside NOx concentrations, which comprise principally nitric oxide (NO) and primary NO2 (i.e. NO2 that is emitted directly from the vehicle exhaust). The emitted NO reacts with oxidants in the air (mainly ozone) to form more NO2 (known as secondary NO2). Since only NO2 has been associated with effects on human health, the air quality standards for the protection of human health are based on NO2 rather than NOx or NO. Thus, a suitable NOx to NO2 conversion needs to be applied to the modelled NOx concentrations.

DEFRA’s TG09 guidance24 details an approach for calculating the roadside conversion of NOx to NO2, which takes into account the difference between ambient NOx concentrations with and without the development, the concentration of ozone and the different proportions of primary NO2 emissions in different years.






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This approach is available as a spreadsheet calculator, with the most up to date version having been released in June 2014 (v4.1)26.

The model results for all the discrete receptors within the study areas were processed using this spreadsheet calculator. For the modelled grid area around the airport, the model results were processed using a representative factor of NOx/NO2 taken from previous assessments undertaken by Arup over the past few months. This relationship across the modelled grid area is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Factors for conversion of NOx to NO2 for the modelled grid area

5.5.4 Background Concentrations

Background concentrations refer to the existing levels of pollution in the atmosphere, produced by a variety of sources, such as roads and industrial processes. DEFRA has produced estimates of background air pollution data for each 1x1km OS grid square for each local authority area in the UK. Background maps are available for 2011 and projected through to 203027.

Emissions from sources which have not been explicitly included in the model, were taken from the latest DEFRA maps for each assessment scenario. The DEFRA NO2 adjustment for NOx sector removal tool28 was also used to adjust the background concentrations and remove the sources that were explicitly included in the air quality model. The background NOx concentrations for the modelled grid area were

26 DEFRA, NOx to NO2 Calculator, Available from: http://laqm.defra.gov.uk [Accessed: February

2015] 27 DEFRA Background Maps, Available from: http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-

assessment/tools/background-maps.html [Accessed: February 2015] 28 DEFRA NO2 ajustment tool for NOx sector removal from : http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-

and-assessment/tools/background-maps.html [Accessed: February 2015]

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-assessment/tools/background-maps.html









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interpolated using the kriging method in the Surfer software. Figure A.6 to Figure A.11 show the baseline and future year background NOx and NO2 concentrations for the modelled grid area (following sector removal).






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6 Predicting Future Air Quality

As discussed in section 2, emissions of NOx are regulated by various European Directives, which have resulted in a series of standards for road vehicle emissions (referred to as Euro standards). These standards set the levels of acceptable emissions of pollutants when the engine is driven over a standard test cycle. The legislation has set progressively lower levels of emissions of NOx for each Euro standard since their introduction in 1998. These should have resulted in substantial reductions in pollutant concentrations near to roads, however it was observed that NO2 concentrations have not reduced as much as would have been expected by the emission limits starting around 2009. Research has found that this is largely due to the differences in engine emissions between the standard test cycle and “on road” conditions. The recent Euro standards (particularly Euro III to V) were largely ineffective for diesel engine vehicles.

DEFRA published a report in July 2011 examining the long term trends of NOx and NO2 concentrations29, which indicated a clear decrease in concentrations between 1996 and 2002. However, it also shows a stabilisation of concentrations between 2004 and 2010 with little to no reduction in NOx and NO2 concentrations (Figure 4). The conclusions of this report were that there is now a gap between current projected vehicle emission reductions and projections on the annual rate of air quality improvement as provided by DEFRA in technical guidance and associated assessment tools.

Figure 4 Trends in NOx concentrations (Carslaw et al., 2011)

New emission controls are being introduced into the UK fleet with the current Euro 6/VI standards gradually being introduced. These should result in reductions in pollutant concentrations as the emission limits reduce exhaust emissions significantly. However, there is currently insufficient information available (particularly as some aspects of the emissions limits are not to be introduced until 2017) to determine whether these have been successful.

Should pollutant emission rates not reduce as expected then this will also affect the predicted future background levels required for modelling. Background levels will

29 Carslaw et al. (2011) Trends in NOx and NO2 emissions and ambient measurements in the UK






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be higher than the DEFRA predictions should emission controls not deliver the expected improvements.

There is therefore considerable uncertainty regarding predictions of air quality for future years, particularly nearly 15 years into the future as required for assessment of the proposed Heathrow schemes. Should pollutant emissions and background concentrations not reduce as expected (as has been the case in recent years) then there is a risk that concentrations of NO2 will be underestimated and potential breaches of limit values will be missed.

As a result several approaches have been developed to account for this uncertainty. Two of these approaches are used in this study; firstly using background concentrations from earlier years than the year of assessment (i.e. higher concentrations). Secondly, a method from Highways England (previously the Highways Agency) advice commonly known as Long Term Trends. These are described in more detail in the following sections. These approaches have been applied alongside a “standard approach” that assumes both emissions and background concentrations reduce in line with expectations as detailed in section 5.

6.1 Adjustment of Background concentrations

To allow for the situation where emission controls do not deliver the expected reductions, a common approach is to select an earlier year of background concentrations. This will result in higher predicted concentrations as background concentrations are expected to reduce in future years. This approach is one that is commonly requested by local authorities when providing air quality assessments for planning application. For the 2025 operation assessment, background concentrations from 2017 were selected. This is a sensible option which will reflect some improvement in air quality concentrations compared with the current year, but allows for a realistic reflection of the situation assuming emission controls do not result in the full improvements initially projected.

For the 2029 operation assessment, two sensitivity scenarios have been assessed. A more pessimistic scenario where background concentrations are assumed to improve only to levels expected to occur in 2017; and a mid-range scenario where background concentrations are assumed to improve to levels expected to occur in 2021.

These sensitivity tests used information from the DEFRA background maps for the relevant years (2017 and 2021) and the model outputs for the 2025 and 2029 assessments. The data was adjusted as described in section 5.5.4 and the sources explicitly included in the air quality model were removed. The background concentrations for the modelled grid area were interpolated using the kriging method in the Surfer software. Figure A.14 to Figure A.17 show the 2017 and 2021 background NOx and NO2 concentrations for the modelled grid area (following sector removal).

6.2 Highway England Long Term Trends (LTT)

Following publication of DEFRA’s report29 Highways England (HE) undertook further analysis of long term monitored NO2 concentrations based on monitored data collected between 2006 and 2010 at locations in close proximity to HE schemes. This analysis showed that monitoring data closely aligns with the long






Page 26

term trends outlined in the DEFRA report. As a result the HE have produced an Interim Advice Note (IAN), which presents future NOx and NO2 projections for use in air quality assessments (IAN 170/12v330). The IAN requires modelled NO2 concentrations for the future year, as derived using DEFRA’s TG09 guidance, to be adjusted to account for the long term trend in NO2 concentrations.

The assessment methodology requires an additional scenario to be modelled, referred to as the ‘projected base year’ scenario, for the future assessment year. This projected base year scenario models the baseline traffic (2012) with vehicle emission factors and background pollutant concentrations for the future year (2025 and 2029 in this assessment). The ratio between the projected base year modelled concentrations and the modelled base year concentrations is determined, as well as an annual adjustment factor based on DEFRA’s projection factors for annual mean NO2 concentrations. These are then combined to determine a correction factor which is applied to all modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations derived using DEFRA’s TG09 method for scenarios with and without the scheme.

The IAN long term projection factors take a conservative approach with regards to the improvements anticipated as a result of the introduction of Euro 6/VI vehicles to the fleet mix. The long term projection factors do not take the most optimistic view of the benefits of Euro 6/VI and they do not include the benefits of Euro 6/VI vehicles having an immediate impact upon emissions. It is noted that benefits associated with the introduction of Euro6/VI vehicles into the fleet are anticipated to start being realised around 2017. Therefore, the IAN notes that beyond 2017 projections are predicted to be conservative.

When examining the approach used in the DEFRA and HE methods it is clear that the DEFRA approach takes a considerably more optimistic view of future conditions and it is acknowledged that the HE approach is pessimistic (although it is based on observed trends). The key issue in determining future impacts is the actual performance of Euro VI standard HGVs. These should result in reductions in emissions of NOx but the concern is (based on experience with the previous Euro classes) that in actual “on the road” conditions, the emission control technology will not reduce NOx emissions as much as expected.

The IAN notes that the original approach was pessimistic and new correction factors have been provided by Highways England – these have been used in this assessment. The receptors where the LTT method has been applied are those within 200m of a major road source and at least 500m away from major airport sources.

30 Highways Agency (2013) Interim Advice Note 170/12v3, Updated air quality advice on the

assessment of future NOx and NO2 projections for users of DMRB Volume 11, Section 3, Part 1

Air Quality






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7 Assessment

This section presents the results of the air quality assessment for the assessment scenarios described earlier. In summary, these scenarios are:

2025 Operation:

Standard DEFRA approach – 2025 backgrounds (emissions fall in line with expectations)

Standard DEFRA approach – 2017 backgrounds

HE long term trends – 2025 backgrounds

2029 Operation:

Standard DEFRA approach – 2029 backgrounds (emissions fall in line with expectations)



HE long term trends – 2029 backgrounds

7.1 Summary of results

An overview of the results in provided in Table 6. This details whether the assessment predicts an exceedance of the 40µg/m3 limit value for receptors within each study area for all assessment scenarios. Defra Technical Guidance TG0924 states that local authorities should consider that there is a risk of an exceedance of the air quality objective where predicted concentrations exceed 36µg/m3. Where this is the case, this is noted in the table.

Table 6 Summary of results

Scenario 2025 Operation 2029 Operation

Background

concentration 2025 2017 LTT 2029 2021 2017 LTT

A30 London Road N N N N N N N

A315 London Road N N R N N N N

A4 Great West

Road N N R N N N N

Cranford N N R N N N N

East Bedfont N N R N N N N

Harlington N N Y N N N R

Heston N N Y N N N R

Hounslow N N Y N N N R

Stanwell N N N N N N N

West Drayton and

Harmondsworth Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

N – No risk of exceedance, R – Risk of exceedance, Y – Predicted exceedance






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As can be seen, there are exceedances observed whatever assumptions are made for all scenarios tested at the West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area. It should also be noted that some of the results where an exceedance was not identified predict concentrations that are only just below the limit value. More details for each location are provided in the following sections.

7.2 A30 London Road

A total of 13 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the A30 London Road (Figure B.1). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.1 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach, predicted concentrations in 2025 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 18.5μg/m3 to 23.3μg/m3. In the scenario using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 3.3μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 21.8μg/m3 to 26.7μg/m3.

Using the HE LTT approach, predicted concentrations in 2025 are significantly higher but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.9μg/m3 to 34.3μg/m3.

Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach, predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 17.9μg/m3 to 22.1μg/m3. In the scenario using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 1.3μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.2μg/m3 to 23.5μg/m3. In the test using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 3.5μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 21.4μg/m3 to 25.8μg/m3.


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 23.3μg/m3 to 34.3μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 22.1μg/m3 to 32.9μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 93 along the A30 London Road close to the junction with Lodge Way.

7.3 A315 London Road

A total of 33 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the A315 London Road (Figure B.2). Receptors were assessed using both the






Page 29

DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.2 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach with 2025 backgrounds, predicted concentrations in 2025 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 18.4μg/m3 to 23.4μg/m3. In the scenario using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 4.3μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.6μg/m3 to 27.8μg/m3.


Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach, predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 18.0μg/m3 to 22.1μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 1.8μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.7μg/m3 to 24.0μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 4.7μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.5μg/m3 to 26.8μg/m3.


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 23.4μg/m3 to 36.1μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 22.1μg/m3 to 34.7μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 145 along the A315 London Road close to the junction with Spur Road.

7.4 A4 Great West Road

A total of 20 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the A4 Great West Road (Figure B.3). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.3 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach with 2025 backgrounds, predicted concentrations in 2025 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 20.2μg/m3 to 23.7μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 4.6μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.9μg/m3 to 28.1μg/m3.






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Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds, predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.4μg/m3 to 22.3μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 2.0μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 21.5μg/m3 to 24.3μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 5.0μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.4μg/m3 to 27.2μg/m3.


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 23.7μg/m3 to 36.3μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 22.3μg/m3 to 34.7μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 40 along the A4 Great West Road close to the junction with Heston Road.

7.5 Cranford

A total of 33 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the A4, A30 and Bath Road (Figure B.4). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.4 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025



Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds, predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.3μg/m3 to 23.0μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 2.3μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 21.1μg/m3 to 25.4μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted






Page 31

concentrations are higher by 5.4μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.8μg/m3 to 28.6μg/m3.


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 24.5μg/m3 to 36.9μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 23.0μg/m3 to 35.2μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 64 close to the roundabout of the A4 and A30.

7.6 East Bedfont

A total of 41 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along Staines Road and Great South-West Road (Figure B.5). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Three receptors were excluded from the HE LTT approach due to their close proximity to airport sources. Table C.5 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach with 2025 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2025 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.2μg/m3 to 28.3μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 4.8μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.9μg/m3 to 35.2μg/m3.


Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 18.7μg/m3 to 27.1μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 2.1μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 20.6μg/m3 to 30.3μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 5.1μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.7μg/m3 to 34.4μg/m3.

Using the HE approach, predicted concentrations in 2029 are significantly higher but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.0μg/m3 to 34.6μg/m3.






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Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 28.3μg/m3 to 36.6μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 27.1μg/m3 to 34.6μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptors 205 and 78 along the Great South-West Road using the DEFRA and HE approaches respectively.

7.7 Harlington

A total of 13 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the M4 and A4 (Figure B.6). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.6 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025


Using the HE LTT approach, predicted concentrations in 2025 are significantly higher and exceed the air quality standard at certain locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.2μg/m3 to 41.6μg/m3.

Operation 2029


Using the HE LTT approach, predicted concentrations in 2029 are significantly higher and close to the air quality standard at certain locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.7μg/m3 to 39.2μg/m3.

Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 27.6μg/m3 to 41.6μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 26.0μg/m3 to 39.2μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 113 along the M4.

7.8 Heston

A total of 11 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the M4 (Figure B.7). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE






Page 33

approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.7 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025



Operation 2029



Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 25.9μg/m3 to 41.2μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 24.3μg/m3 to 39.3μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 123 along the M4.

7.9 Hounslow

A total of 26 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along Wellington Road and Staines Road (Figure B.8). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE approaches as detailed in Section 6. Table C.8 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025







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Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 18.4μg/m3 to 24.6μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 1.8μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 20.1μg/m3 to 26.6μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 4.5μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.7μg/m3 to 29.4μg/m3.


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 26.2μg/m3 to 40.9μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 24.6μg/m3 to 39.3μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptor 23 along Wellington Road North close to the junction with Osborne Road.

7.10 Stanwell

A total of 9 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along Southern Perimeter Road, High Street and Airport Way (Figure B.9). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Three receptors were excluded from the HE LTT approach due to their close proximity to airport sources. Table C.9 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach with 2025 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2025 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 20.0μg/m3 to 25.7μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 5.2μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.2μg/m3 to 32.0μg/m3. The highest concentrations have been predicted at receptors 210 and 211 along Riverside Road.

Using the HE LTT approach, predicted concentrations in 2025 are significantly higher but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 25.0μg/m3 to 28.7μg/m3. The highest concentration has been predicted at receptor 209 on Horton Road close to the Airport Way.

Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2029 are below the air quality standard at all assessed locations. The range in






Page 35

predicted NO2 concentrations is from 19.3μg/m3 to 25.0μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 2.4μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 21.1μg/m3 to 27.9μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 5.6μg/m3 on average, but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.9μg/m3 to 31.7μg/m3. The highest concentrations have been predicted at receptors 210 and 211 along Riverside Road.

Using the HE LTT approach, predicted concentrations in 2029 are significantly higher but still below the air quality standard. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.5μg/m3 to 27.0μg/m3. The highest concentration has been predicted at receptor 208 on Spout Lane North close to the Airport Way.

Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 25.7μg/m3 to 32.0μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 25.0μg/m3 to 31.9μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029.

7.11 West Drayton and Harmondsworth

A total of 28 receptors were selected in this study area at worst case locations along the M4, A4, Sipson Road and Holloway Lane (Figure B.10). Receptors were assessed using both the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches as detailed in Section 6. Five receptors were excluded from the HE LTT approach due to their close proximity to airport sources. Table C.10 presents the modelled annual mean NO2 concentrations for this study area.

Operation 2025

Using the DEFRA approach with 2025 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2025 are above the air quality standard at some of the assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 23.3μg/m3 to 42.0μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 5.7μg/m3 on average and above the air quality standard at some of the assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 28.4μg/m3 to 48.5μg/m3.


Operation 2029

Using the DEFRA approach with 2029 backgrounds predicted concentrations in 2029 are above the air quality standard at some of the assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 22.4μg/m3 to 40.5μg/m3. Using 2021 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 2.6μg/m3 on average and above the air quality standard at some of the assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 24.5μg/m3 to 43.9μg/m3. Using 2017 backgrounds, the predicted concentrations are higher by 6.2μg/m3 on average and above the air quality standard at some of the assessed locations. The range in predicted NO2 concentrations is from 27.8μg/m3 to 47.8μg/m3.






Page 36


Summary

Overall, the highest predicted NO2 concentrations in this study area range from 42.0μg/m3 to 48.5μg/m3 for an opening year in 2025 and from 40.5μg/m3 to 47.8μg/m3 for an opening year in 2029. The highest concentrations from all assessment scenarios have been predicted at receptors 181 and 96 along Moor Lane and the M4 using the DEFRA and HE LTT approaches respectively.

7.12 Modelled grid area

As discussed in section 5.2, NOx and NO2 concentrations have been predicted at a grid around the airport. Figure D.1 to Figure D.10 present the predicted NOx and NO2 concentrations as contour plots for each of the assessment scenarios. It can be observed that instances when NO2 concentrations exceed the air quality standard are primarily contained within the pollution sources, i.e. the runways and other airport sources, as well as the main roads in the study area. It can also be observed that concentrations drop off quickly from the emission source; therefore, receptors further away from the airport are more likely to be influenced by road traffic emissions than the airport operations.






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8 Comparison against PCM predictions

DEFRA recently published a list of the 50 worst roads and the predicted NO2 concentrations using the Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) model after a Request for Freedom of Information (FOI) request. This model is used by the Government when reporting to the European Commission on compliance with the EU Directive.

There are two locations along the A4 Bath Road to the north of the airport (west and east of the M4 spur) that are predicted to exceed the air quality standard in 2025 and 2030. These locations are shown in Figure 5 and the predicted NO2 concentrations are detailed in Table 7.

Table 7 DEFRA predicted NO2 concentrations (μg/m3) at PCM links

Site ID and location 2025 2030

16112 (A4 east of M4 spur) 46 47

56114 (A4 west of M4 spur) 46 48

Figure 5 Location of PCM link predictions

The predicted concentrations for the reference case 2025 and 2029 scenarios have been used to compare with the PCM predictions at those locations (Table 8). It was observed that the air quality model predicted significantly lower concentrations that those predicted by DEFRA. Therefore, the results presented in the main assessment are likely to be underestimating the concentrations for the future operation scenarios of the NWR scheme in both the 2025 and 2029 opening years.






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Table 8 Modelled NO2 concentrations (μg/m3) at PCM locations

Site ID and location 2025 2029

16112 (A4 east of M4 spur) 33.8 32.1

56114 (A4 west of M4 spur) 25.4 24.4

Comparing the results of the modelling reported in this report and the PCM model shows that the PCM model predicts concentrations that are some 25% higher. If the modelling results reported in this report were scaled up to account for this underestimate, more exceedances of the limit value would be identified.






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9 Conclusions

An assessment of air quality impacts has been undertaken for the proposed NRW scheme at Heathrow Airport. Two different opening years have been assessed with associated passenger throughput and air transport movements; an opening year of 2025/26 at 98mppa and approximately 564k ATMs and an opening year of 2029/30 at 102mppa and approximately 588k ATMs. This assessment is one of a series of air quality assessments carried out by Arup that have examined the air quality impacts during construction and operation of a third runway.

The air quality modelling has been based on DEFRA guidance regarding future emission rates, but sensitivity testing has also been carried out to account for the uncertainty regarding predictions of air quality for future years. Should pollutant emissions and background concentrations not reduce as expected (as has been the case in recent years) then there is a risk that concentrations of NO2 will be underestimated and potential breaches of limit values will be missed. The two approaches used in this study are firstly using background concentrations from earlier years than the year of assessment (i.e. higher concentrations) and secondly using the LTT approach developed by Highways England.

Monitoring around Heathrow shows there are currently a number of areas where concentrations exceed the air quality standard for annual mean NO2 (40µg/m3) by 10µg/m3 or more. These large exceedances indicate that even with improvements in the emissions from the fleet in the future years, the number of vehicles on the road network is still likely to be causing an exceedance in the air quality objective for annual mean NO2, even without the operational impacts that would arise from a third runway.

These predicted concentrations also match the concentrations predicted by DEFRA as part of their pollution climate mapping (PCM) results. In February 2015 DEFRA also released information about the “50 highest modelled NO2 concentrations”31 in the UK which showed that two locations along the A4 just to the north of the airport are predicted to be within the 50 most polluted roads in 2025 and 2030. These locations are on the A4 to the east and west of the M4 spur respectively. It is also important to note that compliance with the limit value is reported to the European Union using the results of the PCM model. Comparison of the predicted concentrations fro the modelling described in this report with the PCM results shows that the PCM model predicts considerably higher concentrations. If the modelling results are scaled to account for this difference, then exceedances of the limit value would be predicted in more locations.

The results of the assessment demonstrate that there are predicted exceedances of the limit value for all scenarios tested at the West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area and for some scenarios at other locations. In addition, predicted concentrations for some locations are very close to the limit value (being within less than 1µg/m3 of the limit value) particularly when using the Highways England long term trends approach. This illustrates the high risk of an exceedance of the limit value should a third runway be constructed at Heathrow.

31 DEFRA, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/50-highest-modelled-nitrogen-dioxide-

no2-concentrations [Accessed February 2015]






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List of Appendices

Appendix A – Figures and tables

Figure A.1 Monitoring sites around Heathrow Airport

Table A.1 Continuous monitoring data around Heathrow Airport

Figure A.2 Trends in selected continuous monitoring sites around Heathrow Airport

Figure A.3 Study areas (‘hot spots’) and modelled grid

Figure A.4 Modelled pollution sources for the reference case scenarios

Figure A.5 Modelled pollution sources for the operation case scenarios

Figure A.6 Background NOx concentrations in 2012 (following sector removal)

Figure A.7 Background NO2 concentrations in 2012 (following sector removal)





Figure A.12 Windroses for five years meteorological data from Heathrow Airport

Figure A.13 Mean temperature anomalies for 2010 and 2013





Appendix B – Study areas figures

Figure B.1 A30 London Road study area

Figure B.2 A315 London Road study area

Figure B.3 A4 Great West Road study area

Figure B.4 Cranford study area

Figure B.5 East Bedfont study area

Figure B.6 Harlington study area

Figure B.7 Heston study area

Figure B.8 Hounslow study area

Figure B.9 Stanwell study area

Figure B.10 West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area






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Appendix C – Study areas results tables

Table C.1 Model results for A30 London Road study area


Table C.3 Model results for A4 Great West Road study area

Table C.4 Model results for Cranford study area

Table C.5 Model results for East Bedfont study area

Table C.6 Model results for Harlington study area

Table C.7 Model results for Heston study area

Table C.8 Model results for Hounslow study area

Table C.9 Model results for Stanwell study area

Table C.10 Model results for West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area

Appendix D – Modelled grid area contours

Figure D.1 Predicted NOx concentrations in 2025

Figure D.2 Predicted NO2 concentrations in 2025

Figure D.3 Predicted NOx concentrations in 2025 (using 2017 backgrounds)

Figure D.4 Predicted NO2 concentrations in 2025 (using 2017 backgrounds)







Appendix A

Figures and Tables

Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 - AC Growth Forecasts - AC Growth Forecasts

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Table A.1 Continuous monitoring data around Heathrow Airport

Site NO2 concentrations (μg/m3)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Heathrow LHR2 55.1 53.5 51.7 54.0 52.8 49.8 49.6 50.4 47.1 47.9 46.4*

London Hillingdon 47.2 45.5 48.7 45.1 50.7 54.0 53.6 55.2 57.2 52.8 57.5*

Slough Colnbrook 30.8 31.1 32.5 33.0 30.6 29.3 29.5 30.1 29.5 29.6 29.9*

Harlington 38.2 38.3 37.0 37.1 34.8 36.3 34.5 33.7 34.6 37.5 36.5*

Hounslow 2 – Cranford 35.6 37.7 37.5 34.5 35.9 33.1 21.1 29.8 31.1 30.1 31.4

Hillingdon Oxford Avenue n/a 37.5 45.3 43.5 42.5 42.6 39.7 44.4 44.1 39.2 35.1

Hillingdon Hayes n/a n/a n/a n/a 50.2 55.6 53.6 55.3 45.9 47.0 53.0

Hounslow Hatton Cross n/a n/a 35.4 35.1 31.4 35.1 38.4 34.5 31.7 37.2 31.2

Hillingdon Sipson n/a n/a 45.4 40.3 38.0 39.0 38.3 37.0 35.3 36.5 36.6

Heathrow Oaks Road 33.5 37.6 33.3 37.6 34.9 33.4 37.2 30.5 30.4 34.2 32.6*

Heathrow Green Gates 38.7 36.2 37.3 38.1 37.6 37.5 41.2 34.8 33.5 33.5 35.2*

Hillingdon Harmondsworth n/a n/a n/a 35.3 32.5 33.4 31.0 31.5 31.8 30.3 29.3*

* Data not yet verified.


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Figure A.2 Trends in selected continuous monitoring sites around Heathrow Airport


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Figure A.12 Windroses for five years meteorological data from Heathrow Airport


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Figure A.13 Mean temperature anomalies for 2010 and 2013

Source:

MetOffice, UK temperature, rainfall and sunshine anomaly graphs, Available from: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomalygraphs [Accessed: December 2014]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomalygraphs


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Appendix B Study Areas Figures

Appendix C

Study Areas Results Tables


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ID 2025 Operation 2029 Operation

DEFRA 2025 DEFRA 2017 BG HE 2025 DEFRA 2029 DEFRA 2021 BG DEFRA 2017 BG HE 2029

83 18.5 21.8 24.9 17.9 19.2 21.4 23.9

84 18.9 22.1 25.6 18.2 19.4 21.7 24.5

85 19.2 22.5 26.4 18.5 19.8 22.0 25.3

86 19.7 23.0 27.4 18.9 20.2 22.5 26.3

87 19.6 22.9 27.1 18.8 20.1 22.3 26.0

88 19.3 22.5 26.4 18.6 19.8 22.1 25.4

89 20.6 23.9 28.2 19.8 21.0 23.3 27.0

90 22.3 25.6 32.4 21.2 22.5 24.8 31.1

91 22.5 25.9 32.7 21.4 22.8 25.0 31.4

92 20.5 23.8 28.3 19.7 21.0 23.3 27.1

93 23.3 26.7 34.3 22.1 23.5 25.8 32.9

94 20.0 23.3 27.3 19.4 20.7 22.9 26.2

95 20.1 23.4 27.5 19.5 20.8 23.0 26.4


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27 22.1 26.4 31.4 21.2 23.1 25.9 30.2

28 20.8 25.1 28.1 20.2 22.0 24.8 27.1

29 20.6 25.2 29.0 19.9 21.9 24.8 27.9

30 20.9 25.5 29.5 20.1 22.2 25.1 28.4

31 20.1 24.7 27.5 19.5 21.5 24.4 26.5

32 20.3 24.9 28.0 19.6 21.7 24.6 26.9

33 20.9 25.4 28.9 20.2 22.1 25.0 27.8

34 20.6 25.1 28.3 20.0 21.9 24.8 27.2

35 20.9 25.4 28.9 20.2 22.1 25.1 27.9

36 20.9 25.3 28.8 20.2 22.1 25.0 27.8

37 20.9 25.4 29.0 20.2 22.1 25.1 27.9

38 21.0 25.5 29.3 20.3 22.2 25.2 28.2

129 21.4 25.9 29.6 20.7 22.6 25.5 28.5

130 19.1 23.3 25.8 18.6 20.3 23.1 24.8

131 19.0 23.2 25.6 18.5 20.3 23.0 24.6

132 18.9 23.2 25.4 18.4 20.2 22.9 24.4

133 19.4 23.6 26.5 18.8 20.5 23.3 25.5

134 18.7 22.9 24.9 18.3 20.0 22.8 23.9

135 18.8 23.0 25.0 18.3 20.0 22.8 24.1

136 19.0 23.2 25.5 18.4 20.2 23.0 24.5

137 19.2 23.4 26.2 18.7 20.4 23.2 25.2

138 19.2 23.4 26.2 18.7 20.4 23.2 25.2

139 19.2 23.5 26.3 18.7 20.4 23.2 25.3

140 22.7 27.0 35.4 21.5 23.3 26.1 34.2

141 18.4 22.6 24.0 18.0 19.7 22.5 23.1

142 22.5 26.8 34.4 21.4 23.3 26.1 33.3


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143 21.4 25.7 32.0 20.6 22.4 25.2 30.9

144 22.3 27.0 32.6 21.4 23.5 26.5 31.5

145 23.4 27.8 36.1 22.1 24.0 26.8 34.7

146 21.2 25.5 30.9 20.3 22.1 24.9 29.7

147 21.6 25.9 31.7 20.6 22.4 25.2 30.5

214 21.7 26.0 32.1 20.7 22.5 25.3 30.9

215 21.0 25.3 28.5 20.3 22.1 24.9 27.5


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Table C.3 Model results for A4 Great West Road study area



39 22.5 26.9 33.2 21.3 23.2 26.1 31.8

40 23.7 28.1 36.3 22.3 24.3 27.2 34.7

45 22.9 27.6 33.4 21.8 23.9 26.9 32.2

46 22.6 27.3 34.0 21.4 23.5 26.5 32.7

47 21.7 26.4 31.8 20.7 22.8 25.8 30.5

48 20.5 25.0 29.6 19.5 21.5 24.4 28.3

49 21.5 26.0 31.7 20.3 22.4 25.3 30.3

50 21.9 26.5 31.3 20.9 23.0 25.9 30.0

51 22.7 27.3 32.9 21.6 23.6 26.6 31.5

52 21.5 25.9 30.7 20.5 22.5 25.3 29.4

53 23.4 27.8 35.1 22.1 24.0 26.9 33.5

54 22.7 27.1 33.5 21.5 23.4 26.3 32.0

55 22.4 26.8 32.9 21.3 23.2 26.1 31.4

56 21.7 26.4 31.2 20.6 22.8 25.8 29.8

57 22.2 26.9 32.3 21.1 23.2 26.3 30.8

58 22.4 27.1 32.8 21.2 23.4 26.4 31.3

178 20.2 24.9 28.5 19.4 21.5 24.5 27.4

179 20.6 25.3 29.7 19.7 21.8 24.8 28.6

180 21.6 26.3 31.7 20.5 22.6 25.6 30.5

216 21.6 26.0 31.5 20.6 22.6 25.4 30.2


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Table C.4 Model results for Cranford study area



41 23.4 28.5 34.6 22.1 24.4 27.7 32.9

42 22.6 27.6 31.7 21.5 23.8 27.0 29.8

43 21.4 26.4 28.5 20.5 22.8 25.9 26.8

59 22.1 26.8 32.1 21.0 23.2 26.2 30.6

60 22.7 27.5 33.3 21.5 23.7 26.7 31.8

61 22.4 27.1 32.4 21.3 23.5 26.5 30.9

62 22.0 27.0 31.3 20.9 23.2 26.4 29.6

63 23.5 28.6 34.6 22.2 24.6 27.8 33.0

64 24.5 29.6 36.9 23.0 25.4 28.6 35.2

65 22.1 27.1 31.4 21.0 23.3 26.5 29.8

66 21.5 26.5 30.1 20.6 22.9 26.1 28.6

67 21.0 26.0 27.7 20.1 22.4 25.6 26.0

70 22.3 27.4 30.2 21.3 23.6 26.8 28.4

71 22.9 27.9 32.9 21.7 24.0 27.2 31.2

72 22.5 27.5 31.7 21.3 23.7 26.9 30.1

73 24.0 29.0 35.5 22.6 24.9 28.1 33.7

74 22.9 27.9 32.7 21.7 24.0 27.2 31.0

75 23.4 28.4 34.3 22.1 24.4 27.6 32.5

189 21.9 26.9 29.8 20.9 23.2 26.3 28.0

190 22.1 27.2 30.9 21.1 23.4 26.6 29.1

191 22.7 27.8 31.9 21.7 24.0 27.1 30.0

192 23.3 28.3 32.9 22.1 24.4 27.6 31.0

193 24.1 29.2 35.9 22.8 25.1 28.3 33.8

194 23.5 28.6 34.6 22.3 24.6 27.8 32.6

195 22.0 27.0 30.2 21.0 23.3 26.5 28.4

196 21.5 26.5 29.5 20.6 22.9 26.0 28.0


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197 21.6 26.6 30.1 20.6 22.9 26.1 28.6

198 22.1 27.2 31.4 21.1 23.4 26.6 29.9

199 22.1 27.1 31.3 21.0 23.3 26.5 29.7

200 21.9 26.6 30.9 21.0 23.2 26.2 29.7

201 21.0 25.7 29.1 20.2 22.3 25.3 27.8

202 19.9 24.1 26.8 19.3 21.1 23.8 25.7

203 20.1 24.8 27.0 19.4 21.5 24.5 25.8


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Table C.5 Model results for East Bedfont study area



76 26.2 33.1 30.7 25.1 28.3 32.4 28.2

77 25.0 31.8 28.8 24.0 27.1 31.3 26.4

78 24.7 29.3 36.6 23.3 25.5 28.2 34.6

79 24.6 29.2 36.0 23.1 25.4 28.1 34.0

80 23.3 27.9 33.2 22.0 24.2 26.9 31.3

81 23.8 28.4 34.8 22.5 24.6 27.4 32.8

82 23.3 27.8 33.2 22.0 24.2 26.9 31.3

148 21.6 26.1 30.0 20.5 22.7 25.4 28.3

149 21.8 26.3 30.5 20.7 22.8 25.6 28.8

150 19.9 24.3 25.8 19.2 21.3 24.0 24.4

151 19.5 23.9 24.6 18.9 21.0 23.7 23.3

152 19.6 24.0 24.9 19.0 21.1 23.8 23.5

153 21.3 25.8 28.9 20.4 22.5 25.2 27.3

154 19.7 24.1 25.2 19.1 21.2 23.9 23.8

155 21.7 26.0 30.2 20.9 22.7 25.5 28.8

156 21.5 25.8 29.8 20.7 22.6 25.3 28.4

157 22.0 26.2 30.8 21.1 22.9 25.7 29.4

158 22.1 26.4 31.3 21.2 23.1 25.9 29.9

159 21.7 26.0 30.3 20.9 22.7 25.5 28.9

160 20.9 25.1 28.4 20.2 22.0 24.7 27.1

161 20.0 24.3 26.8 19.4 21.2 24.0 25.5

162 19.7 23.9 26.0 19.1 20.9 23.7 24.7

163 19.7 24.4 24.4 19.1 21.0 24.1 22.9

164 19.5 24.2 24.2 18.9 20.9 24.0 22.7

165 19.2 23.9 23.5 18.7 20.6 23.7 22.0

166 19.2 23.9 23.6 18.7 20.6 23.7 22.1


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167 19.3 24.0 23.9 18.8 20.7 23.8 22.4

168 19.4 24.1 24.0 18.8 20.7 23.8 22.5

169 19.6 24.4 24.8 19.0 21.0 24.1 23.2

170 19.6 24.3 24.7 18.9 20.9 24.0 23.1

171 20.7 24.9 27.4 20.1 21.9 24.7 26.0

172 20.8 25.0 27.6 20.1 22.0 24.7 26.3

173 21.1 25.3 28.7 20.4 22.2 25.0 27.3

174 20.2 24.4 26.3 19.7 21.5 24.2 25.0

175 21.0 25.2 28.5 20.3 22.1 24.9 27.1

176 20.1 24.3 26.0 19.6 21.4 24.1 24.7

177 20.8 25.0 27.9 20.1 21.9 24.7 26.5

204 25.7 31.1 31.6 24.8 27.2 30.6 29.5

205 28.3 35.2 n/a 27.1 30.3 34.4 n/a

206 25.5 32.4 n/a 24.7 27.8 32.0 n/a

207 23.7 30.6 n/a 23.1 26.2 30.4 n/a


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Table C.6 Model results for Harlington study area



44 21.8 27.2 25.6 21.3 23.7 27.0 23.9

68 20.6 25.8 25.0 20.1 22.2 25.6 23.5

69 21.2 26.5 24.2 20.8 23.1 26.4 22.7

110 27.3 32.6 40.6 25.7 28.2 31.6 38.3

111 25.3 30.5 36.3 24.0 26.4 29.8 34.3

112 27.5 32.9 41.5 25.9 28.4 31.8 39.1

113 27.6 32.9 41.6 26.0 28.5 31.8 39.2

114 27.3 32.6 41.0 25.7 28.2 31.5 38.6

115 25.3 30.6 36.7 24.0 26.4 29.8 34.6

116 25.2 30.5 36.5 23.9 26.3 29.7 34.4

117 26.4 31.7 39.3 24.9 27.4 30.7 37.0

118 22.8 27.9 32.0 21.8 24.1 27.3 30.2

119 22.8 27.8 31.9 21.8 24.0 27.3 30.1


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Table C.7 Model results for Heston study area



120 24.4 29.4 39.1 23.0 25.3 28.5 37.3

121 22.2 27.1 33.5 21.1 23.4 26.6 31.9

122 22.2 27.2 33.6 21.1 23.4 26.6 32.0

123 25.9 30.9 41.2 24.3 26.7 29.9 39.3

124 25.5 30.5 40.4 24.0 26.3 29.5 38.5

125 21.8 26.7 32.5 20.8 23.0 26.2 31.0

126 22.3 27.3 33.9 21.2 23.5 26.7 32.3

127 24.1 28.9 38.4 22.7 24.9 27.9 36.7

128 23.6 28.1 37.9 22.4 24.4 27.3 36.4

187 19.8 24.9 26.5 19.0 21.4 24.7 25.1

188 19.8 24.7 26.8 19.1 21.3 24.4 25.5


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Table C.8 Model results for Hounslow study area



1 20.0 24.2 27.0 19.3 21.1 23.8 25.8

2 20.8 24.9 28.7 19.9 21.8 24.5 27.4

3 21.3 25.5 30.0 20.4 22.2 24.9 28.7

4 21.4 25.6 30.2 20.4 22.3 25.0 28.9

5 19.2 23.3 26.9 18.5 20.2 22.9 25.8

6 21.9 26.3 31.5 20.9 22.8 25.7 30.3

7 21.0 25.1 30.8 20.0 21.7 24.4 29.6

8 22.1 26.2 33.2 20.9 22.7 25.4 31.9

9 19.1 23.1 26.6 18.4 20.1 22.7 25.5

10 21.9 26.1 31.2 20.9 22.8 25.5 29.9

11 21.9 26.1 31.2 20.9 22.8 25.5 29.9

12 20.6 24.7 28.3 19.8 21.6 24.3 27.1

13 20.3 24.4 27.7 19.5 21.4 24.1 26.5

14 20.4 24.6 28.0 19.7 21.5 24.2 26.8

15 23.9 27.9 31.6 23.1 24.9 27.5 30.3

16 21.0 25.2 29.5 20.2 22.0 24.7 28.2

17 21.1 25.2 29.5 20.2 22.0 24.7 28.3

18 24.8 29.1 37.9 23.4 25.3 28.1 36.4

19 22.0 26.2 31.5 21.0 22.8 25.5 30.2

20 22.8 27.0 33.4 21.7 23.6 26.3 32.0

21 21.8 26.0 31.1 20.8 22.7 25.4 29.8

22 23.6 27.8 35.2 22.4 24.3 27.0 33.8

23 26.2 30.6 40.9 24.6 26.6 29.4 39.3

24 24.3 28.6 36.8 23.0 24.9 27.7 35.4

25 24.5 28.8 37.2 23.1 25.1 27.8 35.7

26 24.2 28.5 36.5 22.9 24.8 27.5 35.0


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Table C.9 Model results for Stanwell study area



208 20.6 25.7 28.5 19.8 21.8 25.3 27.0

209 20.9 26.0 28.7 20.0 22.0 25.5 27.0

210 25.7 30.1 n/a 25.0 27.0 29.8 n/a

211 25.5 32.0 n/a 24.7 27.9 31.7 n/a

212 24.8 31.2 27.8 23.9 27.1 30.9 25.5

213 24.9 31.4 27.9 24.1 27.3 31.1 25.6

225 21.5 25.7 n/a 21.0 22.8 25.6 n/a

226 20.8 25.0 26.0 20.2 22.0 24.8 24.5

227 20.0 24.2 25.0 19.3 21.1 23.9 23.5


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Table C.10 Model results for West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area



96 27.8 33.4 42.9 26.3 28.8 32.4 40.8

97 26.6 32.1 40.2 25.3 27.7 31.3 38.1

98 27.4 32.9 41.9 25.9 28.4 32.0 39.8

99 27.7 33.2 42.6 26.2 28.6 32.3 40.5

100 27.6 33.0 41.7 26.0 28.5 32.0 39.5

101 26.1 31.5 38.5 24.8 27.2 30.7 36.4

102 26.5 31.9 39.3 25.1 27.5 31.0 37.2

103 25.4 30.8 37.2 24.1 26.5 30.0 35.1

104 25.6 31.0 37.6 24.2 26.7 30.1 35.6

105 26.7 32.1 40.1 25.2 27.6 31.1 37.9

106 27.3 32.7 41.3 25.7 28.2 31.6 39.1

107 27.2 32.6 41.1 25.6 28.0 31.5 38.8

108 25.7 30.9 37.5 24.4 26.6 29.9 35.6

109 25.8 30.9 37.6 24.4 26.6 29.9 35.6

181 42.0 48.5 n/a 40.5 43.9 47.8 n/a

182 35.9 41.9 n/a 34.8 37.8 41.6 n/a

183 31.1 37.0 38.9 30.3 33.0 36.7 36.5

184 30.7 36.5 39.2 29.8 32.6 36.2 36.9

185 28.5 34.3 36.8 27.6 30.3 33.9 34.8

186 23.3 28.4 32.2 22.4 24.5 27.8 30.5

217 26.9 32.5 34.1 25.7 28.1 31.7 31.7

218 27.1 32.7 34.1 25.9 28.4 31.9 31.7

219 24.0 29.5 29.1 23.3 25.7 29.2 27.3

220 23.9 29.4 28.0 23.3 25.6 29.2 26.2

221 24.2 29.7 28.0 23.6 26.0 29.5 26.2

222 27.1 35.2 n/a 26.3 30.4 35.1 n/a


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223 26.9 35.0 n/a 26.1 30.2 34.9 n/a

224 26.3 31.9 n/a 25.7 28.2 31.7 n/a

Appendix D

Modelled Grid Area Contours


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Air Quality Assessment of Operation of Proposed Runway 3 ... · Document title Air Quality...

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