Air Quality and Conformity Air Quality and Conformity Issues Issues

James M. Shrouds, DirectorOffice of Natural and Human Environment

Federal Highway AdministrationAASHTO SCOE Meeting

June 9-11, 2004

ObjectivesObjectives

Discuss Air Quality Provisions Being Considered in Reauthorization

Discuss Implementation of New Air Quality Standards

Discuss On-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction Progress

Planning / Conformity RequirementsPlanning / Conformity Requirements

SAFETEA Combines Metropolitan Transportation Plan/TIP

– Requires only one conformity determination

S.1072 Retains Separate Metropolitan Transportation Plan/TIPH.R.3550 Retains Separate Metropolitan Transportation Plan/TIP

Planning / Conformity RequirementsPlanning / Conformity Requirements

SAFETEA Horizon of transportation plans for conformity purposes

revised to be the longer of the following: – 1) Latest year in air quality plan containing motor vehicle emissions

budgets, or– 2) 10 years, or– 3) Completion date of a regionally significant project that requires

approval before the subsequent conformity determination Regional emissions analysis from end of conformity period to

last year of transportation plan - for information purposes

Planning / Conformity RequirementsPlanning / Conformity Requirements

S.1072Same as SAFETEA, except it does not

include informational regional emissions analysis

H.R.3550Similar to SAFETEA, but would require

State Air Agency to agree, otherwise conformity horizon would be the last year of the transportation plan.

Planning / Conformity RequirementsPlanning / Conformity Requirements

SAFETEA Required frequency for determining conformity of

transportation plans changed from 3 to 5 years, except: – When MPO chooses to update plan more frequently– When SIP actions trigger new conformity determination

S.1072 Basically, same as SAFETEA, except it changes

frequency for determining conformity from 3 to 4 yearsH.R.3550 Basically, same as SAFETEA, except it changes

frequency for determining conformity from 3 to 4 years

Conformity Provisions not Conformity Provisions not included in SAFETEAincluded in SAFETEA

S.1072 and H.R.3550New conformity determinations within 2

years of new motor vehicle emissions budget, instead of regulatory 18 months

Limits conformity to end of maintenance period (H.R.3550 would only provide this flexibility if State air agency agreed)

TCM Substitution

Conformity Provisions not Conformity Provisions not included in SAFETEAincluded in SAFETEA

S.1072 onlyRequires conformity rule to address

planning assumptions, including induced travel demand information in the development and application of the latest travel and emissions models

Conformity Provisions not Conformity Provisions not included in SAFETEAincluded in SAFETEA

H.R.3550 only

Allows areas 12 months to correct a conformity problem before they fall into a conformity lapse

CMAQ ChangesCMAQ Changes

SAFETEA and S.1072 Adds weightings for 8-hr ozone and PM2.5Increases the weighting for all maintenance

areasIncreases the additional weighting for CO

maintenance areas also designated for Ozone

Creates a new CMAQ Evaluation Program

Other Air Quality Related Other Air Quality Related ProvisionsProvisions

SAFETEA, S.1072 and H.R.3550 Adds an exemption for Low emission/ Energy-

efficient vehicles on HOV lanes

SAFETEA and S.1072 Allows idle reduction measures within Interstate

ROWs

S.1072 Makes alternative fuels eligible for CMAQ

New Air Quality StandardsNew Air Quality Standards

8-hour Ozone Standard (Consent Decree)– EPA Final Designations April 15, 2004– Effective Date June 15, 2004

PM-2.5 Standard– State Recommendations February 15, 2004– EPA Preliminary Designations July 2004– EPA Designations by December 15, 2004

Conformity Applies 1-Year After Effective Date of Designation

Ozone NonattainmentOzone Nonattainment

1-hour nonattain-ment and

maintenance

8-hour nonattain-

ment

8-hour nonattain.

deferred by Early Action

Compact

Counties 409 428 46

Areas 135 113 13

Ozone Nonattainment (cont.)Ozone Nonattainment (cont.)

1-Hour and 8-Hour Areas Do Not Correspond Exactly– Many 1-hour areas are not 8-hour areas and

vice versa– Many 1-Hour and 8-Hour Areas have different

boundaries and/or overlap each other

EPA’s 8-Hour Ozone EPA’s 8-Hour Ozone Implementation PlanImplementation Plan

Final Rule – April 15, 2004 Conformity will not apply in 1-hour

nonattainment and maintenance areas 1-year from effective date of 8-hour designations, when the 1-hour standard is revoked.

Conformity for 1-hour standard would end when conformity for 8-hour standard begins.

Conformity Rule AmendmentsConformity Rule Amendments

Final rule expected in JuneWill not finalize PM2.5 precursor or hot-spot

sections, to be finalized later.New conformity determinations for 8-hour

standard needed by June 15, 2005.

New Areas Included in CMAQ New Areas Included in CMAQ ApportionmentsApportionments

FY 2005 – Total of 428 8-hr counties (117 new ozone counties)

FY 2006 – Adds between 150 ~ 350 PM2.5 counties* Failure to pass reauthorization bill would

– Leave new counties out of the apportionments– Not affect CMAQ project eligibility

* PM2.5 Counties: State recommendations come to a total of about 150 counties. Based on 2000-2002 monitoring data and including all the counties within the C/MSA, estimates come to about 350 counties.

AIR QUALITY HAS IMPROVED!AIR QUALITY HAS IMPROVED!

Emissions and concentrations have decreased across the board.

On-road sources have accounted for most of the emissions reductions. From ’80-’01, on-road reductions of VOC and NOx were 68% and 69% of total reductions, respectively.

Significant emissions reductions are expected in the future. By 2030, VOCs and NOx will be reduced 57% and 83%, respectively.

26%33%

88%

32%

48%

82%

-65%

-28%

-50% -48%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Population PeopleEmployed

GDP--adjusted for

inflation

Drivers Vehicles VehicleMiles

Traveled

VOC NOx PM-10 CO

Percentage of Change in Motor Vehicle Emissions, Demographics, and Travel

(1980-2001)

Percent Decrease in Concentration Percent Decrease in Concentration of Criteria Pollutants of Criteria Pollutants

Pollutant 1982-2001

Carbon Monoxide (CO) 62

Lead (Pb) 94

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) 24

Ozone (O3) (1-Hour) 18

Particulate Matter (PM10) 14

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 35

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) vs. Vehicle Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

VM

T (T

rilli

ons

of M

iles)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

VMT

VOC

NOx

Em

issi

ons

(Mill

ions

of t

ons)

Source: Statement of Senator Bob Smith, Environment & Public Works Committee Hearing on Transportation & Air Quality, July 30, 2002

What Should Transportation What Should Transportation Officials Be Doing Now?Officials Be Doing Now?

Establish/revise interagency consultation processes Start defining transportation networks in new areas Monitor progress in EACs Encourage State air quality agencies to submit

SIPs/budgets ASAP Review/comment on SNPRM for PM-2.5 Work with air quality agencies on PM-2.5

designations