Air Network and Netted Air Pollution Presented by Xueying Yu · ⚫Ambient air pollution: A global...
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Air Network and Netted Air Pollution 1 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM Presented by Xueying Yu The Aero-Econ Team from Beihang University: Ying Fan, Jinxing Hao, Chunan Wang, Xueying Yu, Junhuan Zhang ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar, 11 July 2019, Istanbul
Transcript of Air Network and Netted Air Pollution Presented by Xueying Yu · ⚫Ambient air pollution: A global...
Air Network and Netted Air Pollution
1Copyright (c) Beihang SEM
Presented by Xueying Yu
The Aero-Econ Team from Beihang University:
Ying Fan, Jinxing Hao, Chunan Wang, Xueying Yu, Junhuan Zhang
ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar, 11 July 2019, Istanbul
Aviation Air Pollution
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Data Source: ICAO Environment Report, 2016
Aviation Air Pollution
⚫ Aircraft jet engines, like many other mobile sources, produce CO2, CO,
unburned hydrocarbons (HC), NOX, VOCs, PM and other trace compounds
⚫ Airport emissions are also affected by emissions from Auxiliary Power Units
(APUs), ground service vehicles, and other ground transportation and power
plants.
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Aviation Air Pollution
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Source: European Aviation Environmental Report, 2019
Aviation Air Pollution
⚫ Aviation is a significant source of pollutant emission
➢ 3.6% of EU28 greenhouse gas emissions in 2016
⚫ Continuously expanding aviation industry
➢ # of flights increases by 8% during 2014-2017
➢ # of major airports is expected to increase by over 20% during 2017-2040
⚫ While ambient measurements around airports typically show little to no
contribution from airport emissions (Zurich Airport, 2013), recent studies have
shown elevated PM levels near airports (Hudda et al., 2014; Keuken, et al. 2015)
➢ LAX is estimated to be the largest point source of CO emissions in CA, and
the 2nd largest of NOX (Schlenker & Walker, 2016)2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 5
Air Pollution in China
6Source: Zheng et al., 2018. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Air Pollution Impacts on the Environment and Human Health
⚫ Human health: a well-known cause of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases
➢ Respiratory system diseases: lung disease, lung cancer, aggravated asthma
➢ Cardiovascular system diseases: heart attacks, stroke
➢ Others: low birth weight and preterm delivery
⚫ Agriculture losses
⚫ Forest losses
⚫ Man-made material damages
⚫ Reduced visibility and losses in recreational benefits
•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 7
⚫ Each year, over 3,000,000 statistical lives are lost over the world
⚫ Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of diseases
(WHO, 2016)
➢ Over $ 2.1 billion cost in human health in 2015
➢ The number will count to over $176 billion in 2060
⚫ The economic consequences of outdoor air pollution (OECD, 2016)
➢ Over 1.2 billion lost labor days in 2015
➢ The number will count to over 3.7 billion in 2060
•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 8
Air Pollution: A Silent and Costly Killer
Motivation
⚫ The effect of pollution on health remains a highly debated topic
⚫ Health impacts of air pollution are important inputs for air quality regulations
➢ US EPA: PM10 in 1987 and PM2.5 in 1997
➢ China: PM2.5 in 2013
⚫ A lack of systematic evidence of health impacts in developing countries
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Objectives
⚫ Quantify the short-term, daily impacts of air pollution on health among
general population (human morbility and mortility)
➢ Address endogeneity in air pollution leveraging the network structure of
airport runway congestion
⚫ Decipher which pollutant is responsible for adverse health outcomes
➢ Rely on the fact that pollutants are emitted at different rates during each
phase of operation, e.g. taking-off and climbing generate high rates of NOX
emission and taxing is usually associated with CO emission
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Air Pollution in China
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3-Year Average PM2.5 from 2013-2015 (𝜇g/m3)
Data Source: www.aqistudy.cn
Airport Delay Minutes during June 2018
Data Source: ICAO ADS-B Database
Airport Runway Congestion in Turkey
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A similar plot as in Page 8 for Turkey airports
Airport Runway Congestion in China
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Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Pollutant Specifics
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Fuzhou
PM2.5 PM10 SO2 NO2 CO*10 线性 (PM2.5) 线性 (PM10) 线性 (SO2) 线性 (NO2) 线性 (CO*10)
Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Northern Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the North
Beijing Shanghai Chengdu Zhengzhou Shenyang
线性 (Beijing) 线性 (Shanghai) 线性 (Chengdu) 线性 (Zhengzhou) 线性 (Shenyang)
Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Southern Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the South
Guangzhou Shenzhen Hangzhou Kunming Nanjing Wuhan Hefei
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Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Western Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the West
Lhasa Xining Yinchuan Urumqi Huhhot
线性 (Lhasa) 线性 (Xining) 线性 (Yinchuan) 线性 (Urumqi) 线性 (Huhhot)
Possible Solution: Other Indexes for Airport Congestion
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With well-tuned ADSB data, building multiple Air Congestion Indexes that
reflect different congestion status:
• Idling congestion: total minutes of airplane idling at an airport in each hour
at each airport
• Taxing congestion: total minutes of airplane taxing at an airport in each hour
at each airport
• Hovering congestion: total minutes of airplane low draging at an airport in
each hour at each airport
Instrument Variable: Airport Runway Congestion
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𝑝𝑖𝑡=𝛼1𝐶𝑖𝑡 +𝐖𝑖𝑡𝚽+𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑡 +𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑡 +𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 + 𝜈𝑖+𝑒𝑖𝑡Second Stage:
First Stage:
𝐳𝑖𝑡Γ
𝑦𝑖𝑡=𝛽ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝐳𝑖𝑡Π+𝜂𝑖+𝜖𝑖𝑡
𝑦𝑖𝑡: Health condition at location i during period t
ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡: Fitted air pollution at location i during period t
𝐶𝑖𝑡: Airport congestion at location i during period t
𝐖𝑖𝑡: Weather conditions at location i during period t
𝑝𝑖𝑡: Air pollution at location i during period t
Possible Results: Health Impacts
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Source: Hoek et al., 2013. Environmental Health
Possible Results: Social Cost of Pollution
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Study Hammit, 2006 Wang et al, 2006 Zeng, 2010 Gao, 2015 Wang, 2010 Xu, 2008
Payment
Range (RMB)20-1000 1-2000 0-1000, 0-500 0-15000 0-800
Risk reduction70/10000→
10/10000;
20/10000
20/100000→
15/100000
10/100; 5/1000 90/100000→7
5/10000010/10000
3.44/100000
Estimation RMB 14.3
10/1000：970-
1000元；5/1000：728-
780元
RMB 100-200 RMB 759元 RMB 76.3
VSL $4000-$17000 RMB 286,000RMB 0.8—1.2
million
RMB 0.7-1.3
million
RMB 0.9-2.0
millionRMB 2.2 million
Q&A
Thanks
2019/7/20 22Copyright (c) Beihang SEM
2019-7-11
