I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Headquarters U.S. Air Force

15 Sep 00 1

Air Force WeatherTropical Cyclone Preparedness and Response

Brig Gen David L. JohnsonDirector of WeatherHeadquarters USAF

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Overview

Air Force Weather (AFW)

What we do; core processes

A key component of the national weather system

Air Force and Army exposure to tropical cyclone threat

Air Force tropical cyclone preparedness

Air Force tropical cyclone response

Air Force Weather (AFW)

What we do; core processes

A key component of the national weather system

Air Force and Army exposure to tropical cyclone threat

Air Force tropical cyclone preparedness

Air Force tropical cyclone response

U.S. Air Force Photo

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What we do

Terrestrial Weather

Climatology

Space Weather

80

60

40

20

30

50

70

PercentageEnsuring DoD Operatorscan “Exploit the Weather”

for Battle

Ensuring DoD Operatorscan “Exploit the Weather”

for Battle

But…we can’t do our mission if our

forces have been damaged or

destroyed by a tropical cyclone.

But…we can’t do our mission if our

forces have been damaged or

destroyed by a tropical cyclone.

Air Force

and

Army

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Core processes

ALL ARE KEY TO PERFORMING OUR MISSION:

DATA COLLECTION

ANALYSIS TAILORING

FORECASTING DISSEMINATION

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AFW’s national role

NWSNWS

AcademiaAcademia NAVYNAVY

AFWAFW PrivatePrivateData CollectionData Collection

AnalysisAnalysis

TailoringTailoringForecastingForecasting !

DisseminationDissemination

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AFW’s national role

Tropical cyclone reconnaissance in Pacific region; AF Weather Agency (AFWA) provides satellite fixes

Partnered with Navy in Joint Typhoon Warning Center, protecting US Government interests in Pacific region, Indian Ocean, westward to east coast of Africa

53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (AF Reserve Command) provides aerial reconnaissance

AFWA provides regional forecast models worldwide

AFW personnel collect vital data in tropical cyclone affected areas around the globe

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A continuing role...

Participation in the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

First launch ~2010

Multi-spectral imaging and sounding -- improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance

Co-sponsor of National Research Council study on future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D (NEXRAD)

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

Fully coupled with land and sea surface, high resolution, improved physics, improved data assimilation

Tool for track and intensity forecasting

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Tropical cyclone threat

US Air Force - US Air Force - 27 major installations, 27 major installations, 450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members

US Air Force - US Air Force - 27 major installations, 27 major installations, 450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members

US Army - US Army - 22 major installations, 22 major installations, 635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members

US Army - US Army - 22 major installations, 22 major installations, 635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members

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Tropical cyclone threat

NOAA Photo

12 major AF and Army installations

and the Fleet threatened by

typhoons

12 major AF and Army installations

and the Fleet threatened by

typhoons

100,000+ airmen, soldiers, sailors,

marines, civilians, and their family

members

100,000+ airmen, soldiers, sailors,

marines, civilians, and their family

members

GuamGuam

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Preparing ourselves

National Hurricane

Operations Plan

(OFCM)

HURCON

Growing Forecasters, building expertise•Graduate education, formal training•Improving operational techniques

Base/Post-level preparation•Detailed plans•Pre-season exercises•Education - base/post newspaper & TV

Take the following actions...

U.S. Air Force Photo

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Helping others prepare

Carrying the hurricane awareness message to leaders and citizens

Airshows

Media Flights

U.S. Air Force Photos

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Response - forecasting

AFWA regional model predictions

Send track and intensity forecasts to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Available to TPC/NHC for consideration--additional integration this summer

Forecasts and warns for all US Government interests from pole to pole

Where TPC/NHC provides official track and intensity forecast, AFW provides tailored forecasts for bases/posts and other AF and Army decision makers

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Response - disseminating

AFWA provides gridded forecast information to various agencies, particularly for inland flooding

US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geological Survey, Korean Meteorological Agency

Joint AF/Army Weather Information Network

Bases and Posts

Base cable TV, radio, telephone, security forces, loudspeakers across installation

Point weather warnings via phone, fax, pager to locations without dedicated weather team

Tailored to specific location and decision maker

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Local response

HURCON 4: 72 hrs prior to 50 kt winds

Essential personnel report for duty, unit control centers open, general preparations, prepare aircraft to evacuate, loose outdoor items moved inside

HURCON 3: 48 hrs prior to 50 kt winds

Shelters prepared, sandbags and plywood in place, food and water in place

High value equipment sheltered/covered

Begin aircraft evacuation, if appropriate

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Local response

HURCON 2: 24 hrs prior to 50 kt winds

Curtail non-essential activities, evacuate non-essential personnel if appropriate, shelters are ready, continue evacuation of aircraft if not complete, shelter non-essential vehicles

HURCON 1: 12 hrs prior to 50 kt winds

People report to shelters and evacuation completed, airfield closed, shelter emergency vehicles, possibly cut off electricity

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On the horizon

Weather effects decision aids

High resolution wind forecasting with MM5 or WRF for input into storm surge models

Improving satellite analysis techniques

WC-130J for 53rd Wx Recon Squadron

NPOESS era beginning in ~2010

Future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D

Weather effects decision aids

High resolution wind forecasting with MM5 or WRF for input into storm surge models

Improving satellite analysis techniques

WC-130J for 53rd Wx Recon Squadron

NPOESS era beginning in ~2010

Future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D

SeaWIFs-Orbimage

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Summary

It takes the national weather TEAM to protect the lives and property of our

citizens!

It takes the national weather TEAM to protect the lives and property of our

citizens!