Air Force Weather Agency Fly - Fight - Win Satellite Data Assimilation at the U.S. Air Force Weather...

Air Force Weather AgencyFly - Fight - Win

Satellite DataSatellite DataAssimilation at theAssimilation at the

U.S. Air ForceU.S. Air ForceWeather AgencyWeather Agency

JCSDA Science Workshop 2009JCSDA Science Workshop 2009

John ZapotocnyChief Scientist

Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

Fly - Fight - Win

OverviewOverview

Mission Overview

Products & Services

Organization

Meteorological Models Clouds and Surface Characterization Regional scale NWP

JCSDA projects

2

Fly - Fight - Win 3

Mission OverviewMission Overview A Global Team for the Global FightA Global Team for the Global Fight

Maximizing America’s Air, Space, Cyberspace, and Land Power by enabling

decision makers to exploit relevant environmental

information across the full spectrum of warfare.

Fly - Fight - Win 4

Mission OverviewMission OverviewWho We SupportWho We Support

National Decision MakersAir Force and Army Warfighters

Coalition Forces Base and Post Weather Units

Fly - Fight - Win 5

Products and Services Products and Services Terrestrial WeatherTerrestrial Weather

Fly - Fight - Win 6

Products and ServicesProducts and ServicesSpace WeatherSpace Weather

Fly - Fight - Win 7

Products and ServicesProducts and ServicesClimatologyClimatology

Fly - Fight - Win 8

AFWA OrganizationAFWA Organization

1st Weather Group1st Weather GroupOffutt AFBOffutt AFB

1st Weather Group1st Weather GroupOffutt AFBOffutt AFB

~1400 TotalPersonnel

FOA CommanderFOA CommanderOffutt AFB, Neb.Offutt AFB, Neb.

FOA CommanderFOA CommanderOffutt AFB, Neb.Offutt AFB, Neb.

A – StaffA – StaffOffutt AFBOffutt AFBA – StaffA – Staff

Offutt AFBOffutt AFB

25th OWS25th OWSD-M AFB, Ariz.D-M AFB, Ariz.

25th OWS25th OWSD-M AFB, Ariz.D-M AFB, Ariz.

26th OWS 26th OWS Barksdale AFB, La.Barksdale AFB, La.

26th OWS 26th OWS Barksdale AFB, La.Barksdale AFB, La.

15th OWS15th OWSScott AFB, Ill.Scott AFB, Ill.

15th OWS15th OWSScott AFB, Ill.Scott AFB, Ill.

2nd WS2nd WSOffutt AFBOffutt AFB2nd WS2nd WS

Offutt AFBOffutt AFB2nd SYOS2nd SYOSOffutt AFBOffutt AFB2nd SYOS2nd SYOSOffutt AFBOffutt AFB

AF Combat AF Combat Weather CenterWeather Center

Hurlburt Fld, FLHurlburt Fld, FL

AF Combat AF Combat Weather CenterWeather Center

Hurlburt Fld, FLHurlburt Fld, FL

14th WS14th WSAsheville, N.C.Asheville, N.C.

14th WS14th WSAsheville, N.C.Asheville, N.C.

2nd Weather Group2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFBOffutt AFB

2nd Weather Group2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFBOffutt AFB

Model Devel & Ops

Fly - Fight - Win

Meteorological ModelsMeteorological ModelsClouds and Surface CharacterizationClouds and Surface Characterization

Clouds Cloud Depiction and Forecast System (CDFS) II

World-wide Merged Cloud Analysis generated hourly Global and regional cloud forecasts

Stochastic Cloud Forecast Model (SCFM) - Global Diagnostic Cloud Forecast (DCF) - Regional

Surface characterization Land Information System (LIS)

Soil moisture Snow depth, age, liquid content Soil temperature

Fly - Fight - Win 10

Polar Orbiting DataGeostationary Data

Snow AnalysisResolution: 12 nmiObs: Surface, SSM/IFreq: Daily, 12Z

Surface Temp AnalysisResolution: 12 nmiObs: IR imagery, SSM/I TempFreq: 3 Hourly

GFSUpper Atmos. TempNear Surface Temp/RH/Wind

Surface Observations

World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA)Hourly, global, real-time, cloud analysis @12.5nm

Total Cloud and Layer Cloud data supports National Intelligence Community, cloud forecast models, and global soil temperature and moisture analysis.

Global Cloud Analysis SystemGlobal Cloud Analysis SystemCloud Depiction and Forecast System IICloud Depiction and Forecast System II

•DMSP•AVHRR•Future NPOESS

Supports IR

Cloud

Detection

Supports

Visible Cloud

Detection

Cloud Height


Cloud Forecast ModelsCloud Forecast ModelsStochastic Cloud Forecast ModelStochastic Cloud Forecast Model

Global cloud cover model developed by 2 WXG (Dr. Dave McDonald)

Pairs GFS Temp, RH, VV, and Surface Press. with WWMCA cloud amounts

16th mesh Polar Stereographic projection

5 vertical layers 3-hr time step 84 hr forecast

SCFM products: Total fractional cloud coverage

Layer coverage (5-layers)

500 meter AGL, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 300mb layers


Regional cloud cover model developed by AFRL (Don Norquist)

Pairs AFWA WRF output with CDFS-II WWMCA analysis

Statistically “chooses” which clouds best correlate with WRF “predictors”

45/15/5 km WRF grids & global ½ degree GFS grid

3-hr time step 30 to 80 hr forecast (depends on

grid)

DCF products: Total fractional cloud coverage

layer coverage (5-layers)

layer top height & thickness

layer type

Cloud Forecast ModelsCloud Forecast ModelsDiagnostic Cloud ForecastDiagnostic Cloud Forecast


Topography,Soils

Land Cover, Vegetation Properties

Meteorology

Snow Soil MoistureTemperature

Land Surface Models

Data Assimilation Modules

Soil Moisture &

Temperature

Evaporation

Runoff

SnowpackProperties

Inputs OutputsPhysics

WRF

TheaterForecasts

Army/AFTactical Decision

AidSoftware

Crop Forecasts

NCEP

Applications

Land Information SystemLand Information SystemSatellite Data is Primary InputSatellite Data is Primary Input

Satellite Data

Fly - Fight - Win

Surface temperature and heat stress forecasts, 20 Jul 2007, 06Z cycle

10,0000 FT MSL Turbulence forecasts,20 Jul 2007, 06Z cycle

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model

Development agent is NCAR

Improved forecast capability over MM5 to better meet warfighter requirements Implemented for classified

support Jul 06 Unclassified transition to

WRF ongoing

AFWA WRF DA system Currently 3DVAR (WRFVAR) Transition to GSI underway

Meteorological ModelsMeteorological ModelsRegional Scale NWPRegional Scale NWP


AFWA WRF WindowsAFWA WRF WindowsProposed ConfigurationProposed Configuration

Central America, North Africa, and South Asia are 20km; all other parent windows are 15km.

Fly - Fight - Win

JCSDA ProjectsJCSDA Projects

DoD requirements demand improved cloud, aerosol, and surface trafficability forecasts JCSDA Projects underway to:

Enhance cloud height and type specification Improve accuracy of cloud forecasts Couple land/air model assimilation and forecasts Improve accuracy/resolution of cloud, land, dust, and regional

NWP models

Long-Term Goal is coupled/unified data assimilation and forecast system AFWA Coupled Analysis & Prediction System

Fly - Fight - Win17

(1 x 1 km grid spacing)

• Spatial resolution: Horizontal: 1 x 1 km, Vertical: # of layers in model (SFC to 10mb)• Temporal resolution: 1hr steps for 0-12hrs, 3hr steps for 12-24hrs, 12hr steps for 24-72hrs• Quantify aerosol/cloud “amount” on 1km grid for each layer of model

• Predict slant path (visible/IR) detection by integrating layered cloud/aerosol forecasts• For visual acquisition, output defaults to CFLOS-like product that accounts for aerosols as well as clouds.• For IR acquisition, output defaults to TDA product since we must account for sensor type, target temp, background temp, etc. in addition to slant path clouds, aerosols.

DUST

Layersof

Model

Modeled Clouds

Modeled Aerosol (Dust)

JCSDA ProjectsJCSDA ProjectsHigh Fidelity Cloud & Aerosol CharacterizationHigh Fidelity Cloud & Aerosol Characterization

are Driving Requirementsare Driving Requirements

Fly - Fight - Win

WWMCA vs. CloudSATWWMCA vs. CloudSAT

18

Cloud Coverage

CloudSat Observed

WWMCA Analyzed


Visible - near-IR composite

1557 UTC Wed 5 Jun 05North Pole Summer

Cloud Mask

Ice

Snow

Water-droplet cloud

Ice-particle cloud

Cloud Phase, Snow, Ice Mask

Cloud Optical PropertiesEssential to EO Targeting


AIRS Cloud RetrievalAIRS Cloud RetrievalHyperspectral DA for Cloud SpecificationHyperspectral DA for Cloud Specification

30

0

28

0

26

0

24

0

22

0

RetrievedObserved

Retrieval with CRTM achieves close match with measurements Tracks transition from clear to cloudy

Retrieved vs. measured cloudy AIRS spectraAIRS 11-μm brightness temperature (K)AIRS 11-μm brightness temperature (K)

Fly - Fight - Win

NOGPS WGPS WGPS_250mb WGPS_damp3 WGPS_10mb

WGPS_250mb vs. WGPS & WGPS_250mb vs. NOGPS:Assimilation of COSMIC data only in troposphere sustains positive impacts in troposphere and decreases the RMSE of T forecasts in stratosphere as shown in WGPS. WGPS_damp3 vs. WGPS:The enhanced damping at the model top only marginally changes the RMSE of T(U) forecasts.

WGPS_10mb vs. WGPS:Moving the model top to 10mb decreases the RMSE of U and T forecasts in the stratosphere.

RMSE of 36hr Forecastsover SWA w.r.t. Sondes

COSMIC Impact in WRFCOSMIC Impact in WRF


Precipitation AnalysisPrecipitation AnalysisLIS EnhancementLIS Enhancement

Use high resolution climatology (PRISM) to constrain satellite precipitation observations

TRMM Estimate High-Resolution Climatology

Downscaled precipitation analysis

Increasing reliance upon space-based precipitation observations

PRISM Group on the web– http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu


LIS-WRF CouplingLIS-WRF CouplingAFWA, NASA Joint ProjectAFWA, NASA Joint Project

LIS initialized runs were able to reduce WRF warm bias

LIS affected 0-48 hour fcst variables of surface weather, boundary layer, cloud, and precipitation

LIS soil and snow fields capture fine scale surface features, reflecting important role in high resolution NWP

Demonstrate and evaluate using LIS to initialize WRF SE Asia domain

4 seasonal test case periods

Coupling via ESMF

STUDY RESULTS:


AER, Inc. Ice Water Content compared to Radar Returns

Cloud Optical PropertiesCloud Optical PropertiesInitial ComparisonsInitial Comparisons

Data courtesy of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.

AF Cloud Profiling Radar: Ka-band AFRL radar

New GOES-based algorithms improve cloud top height assignment

AFWA implementing new algorithms in CDFS II

Added benefits Improved analysis

will improve cloud predictions from DCF, SCFM, & ADVCLD


Long-Term Conceptual Design Unified Weather Analysis and Prediction System

Satellite DataSatellite Data Processing System

Land Data Assimilation

(LIS)Coupled

DataD

ata

Mobility apps

Global SnowInformation

GlobalSurfaceAlbedo

More accurateWeather forecasts

Target Identification

Global CloudInformation

NWP initialization

High resolution physics basedCloud forecasts

Support CFLOS tools

Directed Energy & TCA support

AtmosphericData AssimilationSystem (4D-VAR)

Air Force Weather Agency Fly - Fight - Win Satellite Data Assimilation at the U.S. Air Force Weather...

Documents

Transcript of Air Force Weather Agency Fly - Fight - Win Satellite Data Assimilation at the U.S. Air Force Weather...