Air Conditioning USA 2014 AHR EXPO edited - Market Research BSRIA

BSRIA in the US and

AC Trends

January 2014

Alfonso Oliva

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2

Agenda

BSRIA opens a US office in Chicago

Air Conditioning: Trends in the global market

The US market for AC

Air Conditioning: Trends by product type.

Putting the US into context

Global Market Shares


BSRIA in North America

New research office in Chicago from 2014:

Closer to North American clients;

Closer to the North American market;

Enhanced coordination of the network of research partners.

…new content proposition

New office….

• More North American dedicated research;

• Voice of Customer (VOC) and vertical studies

US partner for quantitative (large survey) research;

Continuous distributor/installer/designer research;

Light commercial vertical studies: education, retail, hospitality.

Chicago


BSRIA in North America: Provisional Organization

Alfonso Oliva

Chief Research Officer

North America

Alex Detre

VP Business Development

North America

Katherine Sutter

Senior Consultant USA

AC&R and Latam

Sally Zheng

Research Consultant USA

Heating and BAS

Research

Partner

Bruce Ticknell

VP Customer Research

North America

Research

Partner

Research

Partner


North American Research

AC

USA Packaged Air Conditioning 2014

USA Central Plant Air Conditioning 2014

Canada AC World Study Format 2014

US Precision Cooling 2014 (planning)

Heating & Renewables

USA Heating 2014: Residential and Commercial Boilers and Water Heating

USA Heat Pump 2014

USA Solar Thermal 2014

BAC

Building Automation and Control Systems North America 2013

Energy Services in North America 2014

Smart Home 2013 North America

Structured Cabling USA 2013

Structured Cabling Canada 2013

Chicago Office Multiclient Portfolio 2014


AC Trends


AC Global Trends

World Air Conditioning Market from 2011

to 2016 (F) in unit terms

Total Units in 2013: 117 million

World Air Conditioning Market from 2011

to 2016 (F) in value (US$ million)

Total Value in 2013: US$ 90 billion


Top 12 in 2013

Ranking Country Trend Market Value* Market growth**(%) Hot products

Turkey

Germany

Italy

Saudi Arabia

Australia

Russia

India

S. Korea

Brazil

USA

Japan

China

12 +20% 1,028 VRF, Chiller

11 1,176 +20% VRF, Chiller

10 1,356 - 5% None

9 1,367 + 14% Ductless, Ducted, VRF

1,523 + 6% Unitary, Chillers 8

7 1,645 + 35% Chillers

* In US$ million for 2013 * *Growth rate from 2012 to 2016

6 1,964 + 30% Ductless, VRF

1,964 + 5% Ductless, VRF 5

2,333 + 130% Ductless, VRF, Chillers 4

12,853 + 22% Ductless, VRF, Chillers 3

13,369 - 10 % None

27,966 + 29% Ductless, VRF, Chillers

2

1


AC Splits Japanese Style

World Market for Wall Type Residential Splits

from 2011 to 2016 in units (number of pieces)

Top 10 countries in the world market for Wall

Type Residential Splits in 2013 by units

(number of pieces)

137,000 units in

2013

USA

30


AC Ducted Splits

World Market for US Ducted Splits from 2011

to 2016 in units (number of pieces)

Top 10 countries in the world market for US

Ducted Splits in 2013 in value %

The US Ducted Split is

almost exclusively a North

American residential market


AC VRF Market

World Market for VRF from 2011 to 2016 in

units (number of pieces)

Top 10 countries in the world market VRF in

2013 by units (number of pieces)

About 23,000 units

in 2013

USA

4


AC Chiller Market

World Market for Chillers from 2011 to 2016 in

units (number of pieces)

Top 10 countries in the world market for

Chillers in 2013 by units (number of pieces)

About 14,000

units in 2013

USA

3


US Market for AC

US Market for AC by type of equipment in Value (US$ millon) 2013 estimate and

CAGR from 2011 to 2016


US Minisplit Market

• Strong market recovery in 2013;

• Growth differential with ducted splits falling below 10%

• Market becoming more mature with growth rates below 20%;

• Regional bias remains North and South East + West;

• Canada: ‘emerging’ market


US VRF Market

• Market recovery in 2013 after a stall the previous year;

• Market growth on line with economic recovery;

• Market becoming more mature with growth rates below 20%;

• Narrow application focus despite OEM marketing on specifiers;

• Eroding unitary market (commercial rooftops);


Global Market Shares

Global AC Market Shares 2013 AC Market Shares North America2013

Daikin number 1 globally;

With Goodman’s acquisition, Daikin is second only to Carrier in NA;

North American players are not ‘global’.


AC Global Trends

Critical

Very Certain

Energy Efficiency and

renewables

Market Globalization &

Industry consolidation

Refrigerants

VRF vs. Chiller

and Unitary

Market Drivers

Joint Ventures

And Alliances

European Economy

Market Restraints

Emerging

Countries Material

cost

Chinese

growth

slowdown

Smart

buildings

smart homes

Legislation

Ventilation

US recovery

18 Excellence in Market Intelligence

The HVAC Service and Maintenance Market

18

Part Sale Service Contract Sale (may

include part and labour)

On Call Assistance (no

service contract)

Subcontracting


BSRIA in North America

Pilot project

Industry Commercial air conditioning (focusing on light commercial)

Sample 100 service providers segmented by region, company size, activity

(e.g. installation vs. service)

Geography US only

Topic Service and maintenance

Type of survey Online one off. Possible recruitment of continuous panel

Deliverable Syndicated or multi-client study

Timeline Publishing date: June 2014

Roll Out Vertical markets: Education, Healthcare, Retail

Air Conditioning USA 2014 AHR EXPO edited - Market Research BSRIA

Education

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