AI and Robotics – The Impact on the Future ofJobs – The Great Debate

AUTONOMOUS INTELLIGENT ROBOTS AND THE FUTURE OF JOBS

Professor Janna Anderson, Pew Research and Elon University

[email protected]

Mr. Jeff Burnstein, President

Association for Advancing Automation

[email protected]

Dr. Robert Finkelstein, President

Robotic Technology Inc.

Collegiate Professor, University of Maryland University College

[email protected]

RoboUniverse Conference, New York, NY

13 May 2015

Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey

Question: Self-driving cars, intelligent digital agents that can act for you and robots are advancing rapidly. Will they displace more jobs than they have created by 2025?

The nearly 1,900 respondents were divided nearly evenly – 52% said no, 48% said yes. All wrote long elaborations to explain their viewpoints. Those who said “no” generally either said 2025 is too soon for the switchover or they said technological innovation has historically be accompanied by the creation of new types of jobs for displaced workers.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/imagining/surveys/2014_survey/2025_Internet_AI_Robotics.xhtml


Hal Varian of Google: “The conventional work week will decrease and there will be the same number of jobs.”

Jonathan Grudin of Microsoft: “More jobs seem likely to be created… There’s no shortage of things to be done.”

David Brin, author, futurist: “Galbraith’s prediction of the 30-hour work week will come true.”

Predictions for major transformation of transportation, health care, accounting. JP Rangaswami of Salesforce: “The knowledge/information work sector impact will be transformational.”


Among the “yes they will displace more jobs” responses:


Among many themes in the responses: Technology will free us and allow us to define our

relationship with “work” in a more positive way. Automation has thus far mostly impacted blue-collar

work but white-collar work is soon to be upended significantly, with possibly millions of jobs lost.

Our education system is not adequately preparing people for work of the future, and political and economic systems are not prepared to handle this future.






What is the future of jobs?• Capabilities of cooperative and humanoid

robots and software-based agents are advancing rapidly. Autonomous vehicles and knowledge engines such as Wolfram’s tools and IBM’s Watson are making headlines and raising the debate.

Why I Automate…– Quality– Productivity– Safety– Speed– Competitiveness– Jobs– Reduce Costs– More…

Jeff Burnstein:

Why Small Businesses are Automating

www.A3automate.org

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

2014 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Industrial Robot Shipments vs. Unemployment Level in the U.S.

Industrial Robot Shipments (USA) Unemployment (USA, Thousands)

As industrial robot shipments have increased, the unemployment level has typically decreased in the United States.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics and RIA Historical Data

2001 Recession Great Recession

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

2014 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Industrial Robot Shipments vs. Manufacturing Employment in the United States

Industrial Robot Shipments (USA)All Employees: Manufacturing (USA, Thousands)

There is no evidence suggesting that increases in industrial robot shipments directly cause decreases in manufacturing employment.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics and RIA Historical Data

2001 Recession Great Recession

From Brookings Institute Study: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro

• Despite the installation of far more robots between 1993 and 2007, Germany lost just 19 percent of its manufacturing jobs between compared to a 33 percent drop in the U.S.

• Korea, France, and Italy also lost fewer manufacturing jobs than the United States even as they introduced more industrial robots.

• On the other hand, United Kingdom and Australia invested less in robots but saw faster declines in their manufacturing sectors.

• Evidence suggests there is essentially no relationship between the change in manufacturing employment and robot use

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro


From Brookings Institute Study: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro

• How many jobs would each economy have lost if the decline in manufacturing employment was proportional to the increase in robots?

• The U.S. should have lost 1/3 more manufacturing jobs than it actually did and Germany should have lost 50 percent more, while the United Kingdom lost five times more than it should have.

• The lesson is that the net impacts of automation on employment in manufacturing are not simple and cannot be said to have caused job losses.



Robert Finkelstein:DISRUPTIVE AND TRANSFORMATIVE

TECHNOLOGY IN HISTORY Disruptive technology: new technology

that is sufficiently different (and usually considered superior) from the old technology that it is replacing such that it could change the companies and industry producing the old technology

Transformative technology: new technology that is sufficiently different (and usually considered superior) from the old technology that it is replacing such that it could transform culture and society

Autonomous intelligent robotic technology: a disruptive and transformative technology

The robotic “next big thing”: autonomous intelligent vehicles

QUESTIONS

Will the advent of autonomous intelligent robots cause the loss of more jobs than will be gained?

If so, what are prospective solutions?

DISRUPTIVE AND TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY IN HISTORY

Historically, technology that was disruptive and transformative caused some jobs to be lost while many more new ones were gained

Hypothesis: the technology of intelligent machines is sufficiently different in function and effect from the historical experience that the usual benign (overall) impact on jobs may no longer be valid

First autonomous robot impact wave (2020 – 2030): autonomous (driverless) vehicles will cause the loss of jobs for millions of drivers (taxis, trucks, buses, delivery vans, etc.)

DRIVERLESS VEHICLES The advent of driverless vehicles is

inevitable, whether by 2020 as many predict or a bit later

Some partially autonomous vehicles are being sold now by the automotive industry

The motivation (safety and efficiency) is compelling, the technology (hardware and software) is improving rapidly, and the policy issues are converging toward solutions

Prediction: by 2030 it will be illegal to drive vehicles manually wherever it is illegal to drive a horse

Now is the time to prepare for potential job consequences

BEYOND DRIVERLESS VEHICLES Prediction: autonomous humanoid

and other legged robots (as being developed under DARPA sponsorship) will become technologically feasible soon after autonomous vehicles

Hypothesis: these robots will be able to replace humans in manifold service and professional jobs, such as janitor, fast-food worker, athlete, soldier, accountant, nurse, physician, lawyer, and professor

Before the end of the 21st century, intelligent machines will be equal (and perhaps superior) to humans in cognition

How will people make a living?

PROSPECTIVE SOLUTIONS In the 1970s Dr. James Albus, of the

U.S. National Institute for Standards and Technology, wrote a book; “People’s Capitalism: The Economics of the Robot Revolution” He proposed new government

agencies to manage a National Mutual Fund (NMF) and national investment in highly efficient robotics for all sectors of the economy: manufacturing; agriculture, fishing, and extraction; and service

Thus some of the increase in national wealth could be distributed to all residents as dividends, similar to what some oil-producing regions (including Alaska) have done

The incremental wealth distribution would be a sufficient income to allow people to live reasonably – work would be optional

PROSPECTIVE SOLUTIONS An alternative solution, especially if

there is near-term job loss from the advent of driverless cars, trucks, and buses: The government facilitates loans to

qualified erstwhile drivers so that they can own the means of production (the driverless vehicles)

The government facilitates training for erstwhile drivers so they can become vehicle owners and managers instead of vehicle drivers

Not all former drivers will qualify, but sufficient numbers as to reduce the impact of otherwise massive job loss

This solution could also work for farm workers, miners, barbers, elder-care workers, and others who lose jobs due to future robots

We say hindsight is 20/20 but due to accelerating change… and the complexity and potential for chaos becoming more implicit in our need to simplify the complicated we must aim for foresight to be 40/40, whether it can be or not. We should anticipate challenges and opportunities, risks and rewards or many could suffer needlessly. Why not project the negatives of this future we are so sure will continue to barrel along as well as the positives and plan for all contingencies we may perceive?

May you all find a fine and rewarding collaborative future as we extend upon our blending with and dependence upon technology.

Foresight target should be 40/40!

Your questions, discussion?

Dr. Robert Finkelstein, PresidentRobotic Technology Inc.Collegiate Professor, University of Maryland University College [email protected]

Mr. Jeff Burnstein, PresidentAssociation for Advancing [email protected]

Professor Janna Anderson, Pew Research and Elon [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

AI and Robotics – The Impact on the Future ofJobs – The Great Debate

Technology

Transcript of AI and Robotics – The Impact on the Future ofJobs – The Great Debate