AGWA: Risk Management Framework for Water Resources Climate Adaptation Rolf Olsen, 1 PhD Eugene...
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Transcript of AGWA: Risk Management Framework for Water Resources Climate Adaptation Rolf Olsen, 1 PhD Eugene...
AGWA: Risk Management Framework for Water Resources Climate Adaptation
Rolf Olsen,1 PhDEugene Stakhiv,1,2 PhD
1Institute for Water ResourcesU.S. Army Corps of EngineersAlexandria, Virginia, USA
2Johns Hopkins UniversityBaltimore , Maryland, USA
Outline
• Background on Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA)
• Risk Management Framework– Breakout sessions– Next steps – stress tests
• Examples– Flood risk– Reservoir regulation
• Application of framework to United States-Canada Great Lakes Study– Example: ecosystems
AGWA: A Brief Overview
• The Alliance for Global Water Adaptation is a group of regional and global development banks, aid agencies and governments, a diverse set of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector focused on how to manage water resources in way that is sustainable even as climate change alters the global hydrological cycle.
• Focused on how to help practitioners, investors, and water planners and managers make systematic, consistent, and resilient decisions
AGWA network • alliance4water.orgDevelopment banks and capacity-building groups.The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, European Investment Bank, KfW, the Inter-American Development Bank, GiZ, the Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate.
Non-governmental OrganizationsConservation International, the Delta Alliance, International Water Association, the Swedish Environmental Institute (IVL), the Global Water Partnership, Deltares, Environmental Law Institute (ELI), Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI), Organization for European Cooperation and Development (OECD), Stockholm International Water Institute, Wetlands International, IUCN, The Nature Conservancy, ICIMOD, WWF. GovernmentalUS Army Corps of Engineers, US State Department, NOAA, UN Water, UN Habitat, UNECE, Water Utilities Climate Alliance, WMO, CONAGUA, Seattle Public Utilities,
The Private SectorCeres, UNEP FI, World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Key partners
Water & Climate Coalition, the Adaptation Partnership, the Global Environment Facility, Nairobi Work Programme
Uncertainty
• Models not developed for adaptation purposes but for testing hypotheses about greenhouse gas mitigation.
• Low confidence, especially for quantitative purposes
• Little agreement across models, scenarios
• Often result in a series of “no regret” options
• Stakeholders often feel disempowered by process, which is often experienced as deterministic
Source: Wilby & Dessai, 2010, Weather
Traditional approaches amplify or hide uncertainty
Source: AGWA, “Caveat Adaptor,” 2013
UZH R. watershed [Dneister R. Basin](Zhelezhniak, et al. 2013)
0 200 400 600 800Discharge , cm s
0
20
40
60
80
100R
etu
rn P
eri
od
, yr
s
TO P K AP I (1961-1990)
D H S VM (1961-1990)
TO P K AP I (2011-2050)
D H S VM (2011-2050)
observed
Top-down vs. bottom-up approaches
top-down approaches to risk
assessmentdecision-scaling risk assessment
1. Define your system’s breaking points
2. Assemble multiple climate data sources and link to breaking points
3. Assess plausibility and test vulnerability
1. Downscale climate model projections
2. Estimate shifts in water supply
3. Determine system responses to changes in these variables
Weaver et al., 2012, WIREs Climate Change
Purpose
• Purpose of these sessions: Develop a risk assessment of the performance of water resources management under the threat of future climate changes and variability using a ‘bottom-up’ approach.
• A bottom-up approach is a stakeholder driven process to assess vulnerability rather than a reliance on predictive models of the future.
Establish Decision ContextEstablish Decision Context
Identify RisksIdentify Risks
Analyze RisksAnalyze Risks
Evaluate RisksEvaluate Risks
Risk MitigationRisk Mitigation Mon
itor,
Eval
uate
, Mod
ifyM
onito
r, Ev
alua
te, M
odify
Cons
ult,
Com
mun
icat
e an
d Co
llabo
rate
Cons
ult,
Com
mun
icat
e an
d Co
llabo
rate
Risk
Ass
essm
ent
Adapted from ISO 31000- Risk Management—Principles and Guidelines
Risk-Informed Decision Making
Background
• Risk management has two basic parts: assessing risks and developing solutions.
• Risks can be assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively
• Vulnerabilities such as flood inundation and flood damages can be quantified.
• Other vulnerabilities (ecosystems) can be categorized qualitatively by stakeholders in terms of ‘coping zones’ and relative degrees of ‘risk tolerance.’
• Risk management options (solutions) need to take into account both types of information.
Defining System Objectives
• For each sector (flood risk, ecosystems, and agriculture), what specific objectives are you trying to achieve?– Flood risk examples: reduce long-term flood damages;
reduce vulnerability of infrastructure to disruption; reduce human fatalities from flooding
– Ecosystem examples: improve biodiversity; preserve wetlands; increase fish stocks
– Agriculture examples: increase agricultural production; increase farm income
Measuring System Performance
• What metrics would you use to define success or failure?– Flood risk examples: reduction in flood damages– Ecosystem examples: biodiversity indicators; fish
biodiversity and catch amounts; health of indicator species– Agriculture examples: area of land irrigated; crop yields
• A metric is a measurable quantity that can be used to measure the performance of a system.
Identify Problems• Identify climate concerns, hazards and thresholds.
What river flow and climate conditions are associated with these hazards?– Flood risk: What are the current flooding problems in the Dniester
river basin? At what flood water levels and flood flow values are populations affected? At what flood water levels and flood flow values does major infrastructure become unusable?
– Ecosystems: What are the current major ecosystem problems? What is the major source/cause of ecosystem disruption (infrastructure, floods, droughts, or pollution)? What river flow values support these ecosystems? How has drought affected ecosystems? Have changes in flow patterns caused by reservoir regulation altered ecosystems?
– Agriculture: What are the current problems for irrigated agriculture? Discuss problems during past droughts.
Non-climate Causes of System Stress
• Identify key drivers and stressors. – Drivers are forces that can have major influences on the
system of interest. Potential drivers could be of physical, biological or economic origin (i.e., climate, invasive species, population growth, etc.).
– Stressors are changes that occur that are brought about by the drivers.
– Examples:• Flood: population living in floodplain; important infrastructure in
flood plain • Ecosystems: water quality (toxic chemicals, dissolved oxygen, water
temperature); overfishing; invasive species• Agriculture: irrigation infrastructure not performing as designed; soil
fertility
Risk Tolerance
• Risk tolerance is the willingness to bear a known risk based on its severity and likelihood
• What range of conditions would have unfavorable though not irreversible agricultural impacts? How often can you tolerate such conditions?– Flood examples: disruption of transportation; damaged homes; reduced
economic output– Ecosystem examples: loss of wetlands; diminished fish stocks– Agricultural examples: reduced farm income; lower agricultural
productivity• What range of conditions would have severe, long-lasting or
permanent adverse impacts?– Flood example: population does not return and rebuild after a flood– Ecosystem example: extinct species– Agricultural examples: farmland is abandoned
Coping Range: Coping range represents the magnitude or rate of disturbance various systems like communities,
enterprises, or ecosystems can tolerate without significant
adverse impacts or the crossing of critical thresholds.
Resilience Range: Resilience range is the magnitude of
damage a system can tolerate, and still autonomously return to
its original state. Failure Range: Failure range
starts from the point where magnitude of damage is such that a system can no longer
tolerate it without significant adverse impacts.
Likelihood
• Likelihood is the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively, qualitatively or quantitatively.
• Statistical models are generally based on assumption of stationarity, that is the past is representative of future.
• Estimating probabilities for Global Climate Models is problematic; uncertainty is not quantifiable.
Confidence
• Confidence is the validity of a finding based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and on the degree of agreement (Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, 2013).
• Our confidence in the likelihood and potential consequences will influence our decision.
Robustness Tests
• How well does the system remain functioning under a range of circumstances?
• System is tested with an array of approaches– Observed hydrology– Stochastic hydrologic sequences – Global climate model projections– ‘Weather generator’ if available
• Test risk management solutions across a range of possible conditions.
Stress test: climate events
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 13 25 37 49
Month #
Mon
thly
ave
rage
inflo
w (
cfs)
610
615
620
625
630
635
640
Lak
e le
vel (
ft.)
Historical
Climate 1
Historical - lake level
Climate 1 - lake level
Uncertainty and Flood Damage CalculationF
lood
Sta
ge (
S)
Flo
od S
tage
(S
)
Flood Discharge (Q)
Flood Discharge (Q)
Fre
quen
cy
Fre
quen
cy
Flood Damage (D)
Flood Damage (D)
Q
S
P
Q
P
D
S
D
UEB - Upper Error Bound
LEB - Lower Error Bound
UEB
LEB
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Procedures - HEC-FDA;1992
Quantifying Frequency
Description Flood ZoneCoping Range
Frequency Range Mid-point estimated frequency
Approximate numericalvalue events/year
Rank
Remote Flood Zone 1 <1 : 200 years 1 in 500 yr 0.002 1
Rare Flood Zone 2 1:50 yrs - 1: 200 years
1 in 100 yr 0.01 2
Infrequent Flood Zone 3 1:10 years to 1: 50 years
1 in 20 yr 0.05 3
Occasional Flood Zone 4 1:5 yrs to 1:10 yrs 1 in 7 yr 0.15 4
Frequent Flood Zone 5 1:2 yrs to 1:5 yrs 1 in 4 yr 0.25 5
Regular Flood Zone 6 1:1 yr to 1:2 yrs 1 in 1.5 yr 0.50 6
Common Flood Zone 7 0.2 yr to 1:1 yr 1 in 0.3 yr 0.70 7
Quantifying Severity/ConsequencesEconomic/Safety/Health
Description
Approximate Numerical value
Equivalent fatalities per event
Ranking
Minor Damages < $ 103/ 0.005 1 (minor)
More serious damages e.g. multiple minor injuries
2 (significant)
Major injuries/property damage
3 (moderate)
Multiple Major / single fatality 4 (Major)
Multiple fatalities (1-10) 5
Severe economic damagesMultiple fatalities (10 to 100)
6 (Severe)
Catastrophic damagesMultiple fatalities (>100)
> $109/1000 fatalities 7 (catastrophic)
Reservoir Regulation
• Potential adaptation measures– Provide more naturalized flow patterns for ecosystems
while maintaining economic benefits– Change allocation of storage space to different uses– “Dynamic rule curves”: Shift reservoir storage allocation
based on current hydrological conditions in basin.– More use of forecasts in reservoir operations