Agua y Cambio Climático 1 sea level-rise-and-the-caribbean
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Transcript of Agua y Cambio Climático 1 sea level-rise-and-the-caribbean
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Sea Level Rise & the
Caribbean by Maya A. Trotz
Associate Professor
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
Focus Latin America and the Caribbean: Americas' Regional Panel on Water and Climate Change
World Water Week
Stockholm, Sweden
8/24/11
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The 4 Points
life now our future
interconnectedness opportunities
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
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Life Now • Do we build in vulnerable zones?
• Do we flood?
• Do we destroy natural mangrove habits?
• Do we properly manage our freshwater resources?
• Do we have access to clean and safe water?
• Do we manage runoff properly?
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
life now (our vulnerability)
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life now
Sea level rise and the Caribbean. © M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
Photo by O. Dalrymple
Guyana
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© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean
life now Guyana, 2005
Photo by M. A. Trotz
Leptospirosis?
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© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
life now Siparia, Trinidad & Tobago, 2009
Photos by E. O. Omisca
Dengue?
Malaria?
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© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
life now St. Mary, Jamaica, 2007
Photo by M. A. Trotz
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Our Future • Will we have more droughts?
• Will we have more intense rainfall?
• Will our temperatures increase?
• What will be the level of the sea?
Sea level rise and the Caribbean
our future (climate predictions)
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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Projected change in runoff
Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
our future
Change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, in percent, under
the SRES A1B emissions scenario and based on an ensemble of 12 climate
models. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd. [Nature]
(Milly et al., 2005), copyright 2005
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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PROJECTED % CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Climate Change & Water in the Caribbean.
our future
Taken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center
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PROJECTED INCREASE oC
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
our future
Taken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center
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Dolphin fish
Habitat becomes
less favourable
+1°C
1oC impact on dolphin fish
U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 13
our future
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Sea level rise
© M. A. Trotz. [email protected]. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
our future
Historic sea-level rise:
a. 0 mm/yr (Suriname)
b. 1.3 mm/yr (Venezuela)
c. 1-3 mm/yr (Insular Caribbean)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
predictions over the next century:
2 mm/yr – 9 mm/yr
Dalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &
Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004.
IPCC, 1996. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
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Interconnectedness • How will sea level rise impact coastal aquifers & water
supplies?
• How will sea level rise impact critical industries?
• How will sea level rise impact built infrastructure?
• How will sea level rise impact food?
Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
interconnectedness
(projected impact)
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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© M. A. Trotz. [email protected] Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
interconnectedness Guyana News
Dalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &
Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004.
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Impacts on Aquifers
Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
interconnectedness
http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/indicators/saline_intrusion.jsp, accessed 7/19/11
Barbados West Coast aquifers already showing signs of salt water intrusion
Grenada 1.0 SLR will lead to salinisation of wells in South peninsula of Grenada
Guyana Coastal aquifers already experiencing salt water intrusion. Will >> with SLR
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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IMPACTS ON TOURISM SEA LEVEL RISE(SLR)
• Impacts of SLR significant for all states (average capital costs of up to 48% of GDP in 2080)
• Rebuild costs disproportionately high for smaller island states
• Rebuild costs of tourist resorts very high in many cases (average of up to 28% of GDP in 2080)
• Key infrastructure (ports, airport and power plants) in most countries vulnerable to 1m SLR
• Impacts increase significantly from 2050 to 2080
([email protected], www.caribsave.org, www.bb.undp.org)
U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 18
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Opportunities • Regional Collaboration
• Optimized resource utilization
• Engaged citizenship
• Education & authentic science
© M. A. Trotz. [email protected] Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
opportunities
(adapt/mitigate)
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Caribbean Modelling Initiative
Sea level rise and the Caribbean
opportunities
Climate Studies Group, Mona (Climate Studies Group, Mona‐CSGM)‐Jamaica
• University of the West Indies, Cave Hill‐Barbados
• Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)‐Barbados
• Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)‐ Cuba
• Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)‐Belize
Region as a system?
• Water
• Food
• Energy
• Human capacity
• UWI,
• Local
universities
• Technical
institutes
• Common
primary &
secondary
curriculum.
© M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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Relocation & smart design opportunities
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Climate, energy, water, materials, human
nexus – new building codes, demand side
change, new training
Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
opportunities
Adapted from http://www.environmentwriter.com/archives/tag/water-reuse © M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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cacce.net
Sea level rise and the Caribbean
opportunities
National Science
Foundation Climate
Change Education
Partnership (CCEP)
Program.
Phase 1 funded ($1
million US)
Phase 2 due 2012
($10 million US) © M. A. Trotz, [email protected].
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© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
opportunities
• The Formal Education Spectrum
• K-12 students
• K-12 teachers
• College and Graduate Students
• College Educators, Researchers, and Climate Scientists.
• Informal Science Education Audiences and
Professionals
• Business/Regulatory/Governmental Organizations and
Professionals at the Territorial/Regional/Municipal level,
focused on the Built Environment:
• Regional/Urban Planning Councils
• Water/Coastal Management organizations
• Design/Engineering Firms
• Others, as Relevant and Appropriate
CACCE Targets
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© M. A. Trotz. [email protected] Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
opportunities
Building Community Engagement & Resilience
Water Awareness Research and Education
• Builds sustainable model for P-20 and community partnership to raise
environmental awareness, improve livelihoods and health & protect water bodies.
• Field studies, laboratory experiments, P-20 curriculum, community outreach.
Weather station
Difference between weather & climate
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How do we build the human
capacity needed to develop
innovative solutions to deal
with sea level rise or other
climate impacts?
© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
opportunities
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Adapted from http://www.ifad.org/remittances/maps/latin.htm
Accessed 11/22/08.
Country/Island %GDP
Guyana 30.1
Honduras 24.8
Suriname 21.2
Costa Rica 2.0
Remittances as a % of GDP (2006)
OECD countries
Country/Island %
Guyana 83
Jamaica 82
Haiti 79
Brazil 2
% of highly skilled
migrants (2000)
Dumont, J., & Lemaitre, G. (2005). Counting immigrants and expatriates in OECD countries: A new perspective OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers, 25, 1-45.
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Diaspora engagement
© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
opportunities