AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global...
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image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway Faroes Scot- land Northeast Atlantic Better predictions for better adaptation Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute
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Transcript of AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global...
image:AGU 2003
How will the Northeast Atlanticand its living resources
respond to global climate change?
NordicSeas
Greenland
IcelandNorway
Faroes
Scot-land
Northeast AtlanticBetter predictions for better adaptation
Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute
The Earth
Global climate changeWarming = Energy in – Energy outRegional climate changeWinds and currents move energy
What if theychange ?
NOAA
Mean sea surface temperature
5ºC
60º
60º
5ºC
Iceland
Scot- land
NordicSeas
ArcticOcean
Faroes
Cooling
Greenland
North Atlantic
Greenland-Scotland Ridge
Overflow
Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean
500 – 1000 years
Labrador Sea
The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC)
Antarctic
Cooling
Increasingsalinity
Freshwater
IPCC-2007:it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century
Measurements
image:AGU 2003
Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water
(millions m3/second)
No significant trend
Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992
Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994
Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992
Labrador Seaconvection
Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken 1948-2005
But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s
Projected surface warming 2080-2099for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007)
2 – 3 ºC warming
ºC
Warming 2091-2100 at 200-500 m depth
according to AR4climate models
(Yin et al., 2011)
Average of 19 climate models
Cooling
One model> 3°C warming
Another model> 2°C warming
“No” change MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models
With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas
But, changing currents may be more important
Whither the fish
?
Artist:Glynn GorickThe marine ecosystem
King Cod
What will happen to King Cod ?
Temperatureand currents
Phytoplankton
Air temperature
Rain
WindLight
Clouds
Ocean acidification
CO2
H2CO3 HCO3 + H+-
CO3 + 2H+--
H+ + CO3 HCO3 ---
The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlantic
will, no doubt,change dramatically
But, HOW?
