Agriculture, Health andFood-Borne and Zoonotic

Diseases

Joachim Otte et al.

Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy

London, 23 June 2010

Food, Agriculture and Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases

Joachim Otte et al.

Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy

London, 23 June 2010

Outline

• Drivers, risks & vulnerability / resilience of society

• Wildlife : human interface

• Livestock sector intensification – example: China poultry and HPAI H5N1

• Trends in disease emergence

• Challenges for an ‘integrated’ health agenda

Meat demand growth 2000 - 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EAP EECA LAC MENA S Asia SSA

Beef Mutton Pork Poultry

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EAP EECA LAC MENA S Asia SSA

Beef Mutton Pork Poultry

Million MTs %

Source: FAO Projections

725

EncroachmentSpill-overSpill back

AlteredecologyTranslocation

GrowthTravel

Urbanization

Pop. growthIntensification

EncroachmentAltered ecology

TechnologyFood habits

Pathogen reservoirs & risk factors

Domesticanimal‘pool’

Human ‘pool’

Wildlife‘pool’

Adapted from Daszak et al. 2008

Vulnerability / Resilience• Ageing population• Social cohesion• Migrant labour• International interactions• Public / media openness• Political leadership• General education• Information dissemination• Pathogen identification• Vaccines & anti-virals• Waste disposal• etc.

Nicoll et al. 2009

Wildlife : Human Interface

Wildlife : human interface (1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Savanna Gallery forest Forest

Keep as pet

Butcher

Hunt

Eat

%

Source: Wolfe et al. 2004 and 2005

• Consumption of bushmeat in Congo basin estimated at about 300g/person/day

• 4.5 million MTs extracted/year

• Road construction:• increases area in which hunting

becomes economical

• increases returns to logging (selective extraction)

• results in habitat fragmentation, which in turn affects infection risk

• ‘Viral chatter’, e.g. simian foamy virus, T-cell lymphocyte virus, etc.

• Epidemics: Ebola, Monkeypox, HIV-1 and -2, etc.

Exposure to nonhuman primates in rural Cameroon

Animal Production and Health Division

Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health DivisionAnimal Production and Health Division

Manado, Indonesia, 2007

Manado, Indonesia, 2007

Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health DivisionAnimal Production and Health Division

Wildlife : human interface (2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

DR

Co

ng

o

Zim

ba

bw

e

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Ch

ile

Arg

en

tina

Ru

ss

ia

Po

lan

d

Urban food waste available to scavengers

g/person/day

Source: Luck 2010

Animal Production and Health Division

Marabu

HyenaBaboon

Pig

Intensification of Agriculture (Livestock Production)

China: Meat consumption & production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Poultry

Pork

Mutton

Beef

kg/capita/year

Source: FAOSTAT

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Pork

Poultry

1990 = 100

Consumption Production

China: Poultry density, 2005

GLW, 2007

India: Poultry density, 2005

GLW, 2007

India: Population density, 2005

CIESIN et al., 2004

China: Population density, 2005

CIESIN et al., 2004

Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007

China: Poultry farm density, 1996

Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007

China: Poultry farm density, 2005

China: Structure of broiler and layer sectors

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Farms Production

< 2000 2000 - 10,000 > 10,000

Broiler Sector

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Farms Production

<500 500 - 2,000 2,000 - 10,000 > 10,000

Layer Sector

Source: Bingsheng and Yijun. 2007

Informal ProcessingFormal, Integrated, Poultry Production

Live Bird Markets ‘Semi-formal Markets

Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007

China: % poultry farms > 50k birds, 2005

gs/Guangdong/1/96

ck/Nongkhai/N

IAH

400802/07 ck/T

H/N

P172/06

Guangzhou/1/06 JapaneseW

hiteEye/H

K/1038/06

Anhui/1/05

dk/Laos/3295/06 ck/M

alaysia/935/06 com

monm

agpie/HK

/645/06 Z

hejiang/16/06 JapaneseW

hiteEye/H

ongKong/73720/07

WhiteB

ackedMunia/H

ongKong/82820/07

Guangxi/1/05

dk/Guiyang/3009/05

dk/Guiyang/3242/05

gs/Guiyang/3422/05

ck/Guiyang3/055/05

gs/Yunnan/4494/05

gs/Guangxi/3017/05

gs/Guangxi/345/05 gs/G

uangxi/3316/05 dk/H

unan/127/05 dk/H

unan/149/05 dk/H

unan/152/05 dk/H

unan/139/05 E

gypt/0636NA

MR

U320/07

Egret/E

gypt/1162NA

MR

U3/06

dk/Egypt/22533/06

Egypt/14724N

AM

RU

320/06 turkey/T

urkey1//05 W

hooperSw

an/Mongolia/244/05

Nigeria/6e20/07

ck/Nigeria/641/06

Turkey/15/06 Iraq/207N

AM

RU

3/06 A

zerbaijan/001161/06 ck/K

rasnodar/01/06 sw

an/Iran/754/06 ck/Liaoning/23/05

Barhdgs/Q

inghai12/05 B

arhdgs/Qinghai1A

/05 ck/K

yoto/3/04 crow

/Kyoto/53/04

ck/Yam

aguchi/7/04 ck/K

orea/ES

/03 dk/G

uangxi/13/04 ck/Y

N/115/04

ck/YN

/374/04 Indonesia/C

DC

1046/07 Indonesia/C

DC

103220/07 Indonesia/C

DC

938/06 Indonesia/C

DC

887/06 Indonesia/C

DC

1047/07 Indonesia/283H

/06 Indonesia/326N

/06 Indonesia/C

DC

742/06 Indonesia/370E

/06 Indonesia/5/05

Indonesia/CD

C940/06

Indonesia/546bH/06

Indonesia/596/06 Indonesia/599/06

Indonesia/625/06 dk/Indonesia/M

S/04

ck/Indonesia/4/04 ck/Indonesia/11/03

ck/Indonesia/7/03 V

N/JP

14/05 ck/C

ambodia/013LC

1b/05 V

N/1194/04

VN

/1203/04 V

N/H

N3/0408/05

TH

/16/04 T

H/676/05

VN

/JPH

N30321/05

HK

/213/03 ck/H

enan/16/04 ck/H

enan/01/04 ck/H

enan/13/04 ck/H

enan/12/04 dk/G

uangxi/50/01 ck/H

K/Y

U777/02

ck/HK

/YU

22/02 m

igdk/Jiangxi1653/05 dk/G

uangxi/2775/05 ck/H

unan/41/04 blbird/H

unan1/04 treesparrow

/Henan/4/04

dk/Hubei/w

g/02 sw

/Anhui/ca/04

dk/Guangxi/1378/04

dk/Guangxi/1681/04

dk/Guangxi/1311/04

dk/Guangxi/2396/04

ck/Hunan/2292/06

ck/Shanxi/2/06

ck/Myanm

ar/06010011B/06

dk/Guiyang/504/06

ck/Guiyang237/06

gs/Guiyang/337/06

gs/Guiyang/1325/06

ck/Guiyang441/06

ck/Guiyang1218/06

ck/Guiyang846/06

ck/HK

/8911/01 ck/H

K/S

F219/01

ck/HK

/8791/01

gs/G

uan

gd

on

g/1/9

60.005

0 3 4 7 5 6 9 8 1 2

2.1.

12.

1.2

2.1.

3

2.5

2.3.

12.

3.2

2.3.

4

2.4

2.2

2.3.

3

H5N1 Clades

Over 1996 to 2008, parent virus gs/GD/1/96 has evolved resulting in 10 different clades(K. Inui, FAO VN)

HA clades of HPAIV H5N1 around Asia,Africa and Europe

2.2

1 2.3

2.1

1 2.3

0, 1, 2.1 - 2.5, 3,

4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

2.32.42.5

2.2

2.22.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Selection for virulence

• Mode of transmission:• (i) horizontal ; vertical

• (ii) indirect ; direct

• Host homogeneity

• Host cluster connectivity

• Within-host strain competition

• Vaccination or

• Culling

• Treatment or

Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008

Trends in Disease Emergence & Integrated Research

Human pathogens

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

All Zoonotic Emerging

Helm

Protoz

Fungus

Bact

Virus

15% 19% 44%

38% 31%

30%

N=868

N=175

N=1,415

Number

Source: Taylor et al. 2001

Noro virus SARS virus

Nipah virusEbola virus

The known unknowns

• There are 50,000 known vertebrate species. Assuming each has 20 endemic viruses, there are likely over 1 million vertebrate viruses (20,000 in bats alone)

• Only 2,000 or so viruses have been described, so 99.8% of vertebrate viruses remain to be discovered

• Large potential for further emergence of zoonoses!

Insects,751,000

Protozoa,30,800

Other animals,281,000

Higher plants,248,000

Fungi,69,000 Algae,

26,900Viruses,

1,600

All organisms,total species:

1,413,000

Bacteria,4,800

Source: Daszak 2009

An integrated health agenda

Disciplines• Social anthropology• Economics• Political sciences• Agronomy• Veterinary science• Animal husbandry• Human medicine• Epidemiology & ecology• Molecular genetics• Evolutionary biology• etc....

Challenges

• Scientific fragmentation

• Competition between ‘schools’

• Institutional turfs

• Public sector vs private sector research / IP

• ‘Cost-recovery’ in public sector research

• Divide between science and application

Animal Production and Health Division

Livestock Sector Analysis, Information & Policy Branch