Agricultural trade and poverty:An agenda for debateThom Achterbosch - Meeting ‘Rethinking agriculture in development’ - Atlantic Hotel Kijkduin - 11 October 2006

Agricultural Trade Policies and DevelopmentResearch project

Goal, contribute to…• Improved insight in links of WTO Doha & farm policies to

poverty & development• Public debate ‘North’, capacity building ‘South’

Features• Funded by Ministry of LNV: research program BO Cluster

International • 2-year program (2005-06)

Trade liberalisationIssues for poverty and development

Mixed results of open trade policies in past Reform package

• Trade and investment• Domestic reform• Adjustment

Livelihoods approach

Agricultural trade liberalisationAre we using the right tools, perspectives?

Global patterns of protection and farm support

• Global economic analysis

Small global and national benefits from a WTO deal, losses in Africa

• Within countries: winners and losers

We ask1. Are the models in touch with economic reality?2. What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor?3. Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor?

Endogenous price fluctuations

Spatial concentration

Market powerDynamic disequilibrium

Strategic control of material flows

Linkage effects

Endogenous growth

Poverty traps

1. Complications for model-based analysis

2. WTO agriculture deal: too much for the poor or way too little

Too much? losses for agricultural importers• Food imports dearer for African importers, cotton exports

grow• Farm labour demand for the poorest in Latin America• Reduced prices for manufactures

Way too little?• Price levels discourage developing country agriculture?• Benign link with foreign investment, supermarkets, rural

income growth?• Effects of increased import competition on growth?

3. Trade positions may oppose interests of the poor

Positions of developing countries under WTO Doha prone to interest articulation

• Possible counterforces for economic adjustment

Agriculture important for understanding of policy positions

• Pro-liberalisation group (G20) • Pro-protection group (G33)

Conclusions

Are the models in touch with economic reality?

Adjust and apply global economic models

What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor?

Analyse earnings on and off the farm Long term effects uncertain

Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor?

Trade interests of commercial farms best articulated

Mixed evidence on pro-poor

To be continued in the sessionsThank you

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