AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE A : I , E , N T...2017/06/08 · AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE...

AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE

ANALYSIS: INDIA, ETHIOPIA, NIGERIA, AND

TANZANIA

C. LEIGH ANDERSON, TRAVIS REYNOLDS, PIERREBISCAYE, MATTHEW FOWLE, ANDREW ORLEBEKE, AND BEIJIE WANG

Questions: Expenditure Levels & Trends

1.What has been the budget allocated to agriculture?

2.What has been the actual spending on agriculture?

3.What has been the trend in the spread between budgeted and actual expenditures?

4.What are the trends in actual spending on agriculture and as a percentage of total government budgets?

5.How do these trends compare with other select comparable countries/states and in the region?

Questions: Sources & Stability of Funding

6.What are the trends in breakdown between government and donor/other sources of funding?

7.For government funding, what have been the primary sources?

8.For donor/other funding, who have been the primary funders and at what levels?

9.How stable have both government and donor/other funding to agriculture been (can this be assessed as a measure of volatility or using another metric)?

Questions: Budget Allocations

10.What has been the allocation (budgeted and actual) to primary commodity groups?

11.What are the key funding areas in public agriculture budgets, and what has been the allocation across these investment areas?

12.For government funding, what have been the main areas of funding?

13.Within government funding, is there devolution of tax revenue from center to states with tied and untied components? If so, what are these implications from center to regional budgets (e.g. India from center to states)?

Questions: Budget Allocations

14.For donor/other funding (e.g., loans, grant aid, etc), what have been the main expenditure areas for each?

15.What has been the allocation (budgeted and actual) of the agriculture budget per capita (specific categories, and denominator by farmer, rural population or total population)?

16.Are there specific indicators that are relevant for individual countries (e.g. in India, can you estimate out “government subsidy per ton of cereal produced”)?

• Total Budgeted vs Actual Spending Figure Numbers

• 1: Tanzania

• 2: Ethiopia

• 3: Nigeria

• 4-8: India

• 4: Central Government

• 5: All States

• 6: Bihar, 7: Odisha, 8: Uttar Pradesh

Addresses Questions:

1. What has been the budget allocated to ag?

2. What has been the actual spend on ag?

3. What has been the trend in the spread between budgeted and actual?

Expenditure Levels & Trends: Government Spending on AgricultureGovernment Spending on Agriculture

Government Spending on Agriculture: Tanzania

Data Source: MAFAP

8 (45)

11

173

68

209 261

385

-400

-320

-240

-160

-80

0

80

160

240

320

400

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Const

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(C

onst

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

1) Tanzania Total Budgeted vs. Actual Government Agriculture Expenditure, 2007-2014

Budgeted Actual Gap

Government Spending on Agriculture: Ethiopia

Data Source: MAFAP

0.1

13.19.5 8.3

10.5

16.0

1.1 0.5

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Const

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(C

onst

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

2) Ethiopia Total Budgeted vs. Actual Government Agriculture Expenditure, 2006-2013

Budgeted Actual Gap

Government Spending on Agriculture: Nigeria

Data Source: World Bank Nigeria

Agriculture Public Expenditure Review

₦ 18

(₦ 397)

₦ 439

(₦ 800)

₦ 1,190

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Const

ant

1990 N

air

a,

Million)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(C

onst

ant

1990 N

air

a,

Million)

3) Nigeria Total Budgeted vs. Actual Government Agriculture Expenditure, 2008-2012

Budgeted Actual Gap

Government Spending on Agriculture: India

Data Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2015

by Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture, Directorate of

Economics and Statistics

₹(21.1)₹1.5 ₹(7.3)

₹(33.9)

₹2.2

₹41.5 ₹27.4

₹13.3

₹116.6

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Rupee,

Billion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(R

upee,

Trillion)

4) India Central Government Total Budgeted vs. Actual Agriculture Expenditure, 2007-2015

Budgeted Actual Gap

Data Source: A Study of Budgets by Reserve Bank of India


₹(36.7)

₹(83.8)

₹(36.8)

₹18.3

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Est

imate

d-R

evis

ed G

ap

(Rupee,

Billion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(R

upee,

Trillion)

5) India 29 State Estimated and Revised Budget Agriculture Expenditure Trend, 2011-2016

Estimated Revised



₹(28.6)

₹(71.1)₹(94.0)

₹(133.5)-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Rupee,

Billion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(Rupee,

Billion)

6) Bihar Total Estimated vs. Revised Government Agricultural Expenditure, 2011-2016

Bihar Estimated Bihar Revised Gap



₹27.6 ₹(1.0)

₹(32.0)

₹4.4

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al G

ap

(Rupee,

Billion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(Rupee,

Billion)

7) Odisha Total Estimated vs. Revised Government Agricultural Expenditure, 2011-2016

Odisha Estimated Odisha Revised Gap



₹(43.4)

₹(6.7)₹13.0

₹(33.6)

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Budgete

d-A

ctu

al

(Rupee,

Billion)

Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

(Rupee,

Billion)

8) Uttar Pradesh Total Estimated vs. Revised Government Agricultural Expenditure, 2011-2016

Uttar Pradesh Estimated Uttar Pradesh Revised Gap

• Agricultural Spending as a Proportion of Total Spending Figure Numbers

• 9: Tanzania, Ethiopia and Nigeria Comparison using MAFAP data

• 10: Tanzania, Ethiopia and Nigeria Comparison using MAFAP, ReSAKSS &

SPEED data

• Agricultural Spending as Proportion of Total Spending & Government

Spending Figure Numbers

• 11-14: East and West Africa Regional Comparison using ReSAKSS data

• 15,16: Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Comparison using SPEED data

• 17,18: South Asia Regional Comparison using SPEED data


4. What are the trends in actual spend and as a % of total budgets?

5. How do these trends compare with other select comparable

countries/states and in the region?

Expenditure Levels & Trends: Regional Comparison

Data Source: MAFAP and SPEED

Regional Comparison: TZ, ET, NG

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% o

f To

tal Public B

udget

9) National Agriculture Expenditure as a Proportion of Total Public Expenditure for Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, 2007-2012

Tanzania (MAFAP)

Ethiopia (MAFAP)

Nigeria (SPEED)

Data Source: MAFAP and SPEED

Regional Comparison: TZ, ET, NG

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% o

f T

ota

l Public S

pendin

g

10) National Agriculture Expenditure as a Proportion of Total Public Expenditure for Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, 2007-2012

MAFAP Tanzania

MAFAP Ethiopia

SPEED Tanzania

SPEED Ethiopia

Data Source: ReSAKSS

Regional Comparison: East Africa

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014% o

f To

tal G

overn

ment

Spendin

g

11) Government Agriculture Spending as a Proportion of Total Government Spending in East Africa, 2003-2014

Eastern Africa Average Ethiopia Tanzania

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Govt

Ag S

pendin

g(2

010 U

SD

, M

illion)

12) Government Agriculture Spending in East Africa, 2003-2014

Eastern Africa Average Ethiopia Tanzania


Regional Comparison: East Africa


Regional Comparison: West Africa

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014% o

f To

tal G

overn

ment

Spendin

g

13) Government Agriculture Spending as a Proportion of Total Government Spending in West Africa, 2003-2014

Western Africa Average Nigeria


Regional Comparison: West Africa

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Govt

Ag S

pendin

g(2

010 U

SD

, M

illion)

14) Government Agriculture Spending in West Africa, 2003-2014

Western Africa Average Nigeria

Data Source: SPEED

Regional Comparison: Sub-Saharan Africa

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Govt

Ag S

pendin

g(2

005 U

SD

, Billion)

15) Government Agriculture Spending in Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-12

SSA Average Ethiopia Nigeria Tanzania

Data Source: SPEED

Regional Comparison: Sub-Saharan Africa

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ag S

pendin

g s

% o

f To

tal

16) Government Agriculture Spending as a Proportion of Total Government Spending in Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-12

SSA Average Ethiopia Nigeria Tanzania

Data Source: SPEED

Regional Comparison: South Asia

-

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Govt

Ag S

pendin

g(2

005 U

SD

, Billions)

17) Government Agriculture Spending in South Asian Countries, 2003-12

Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka SA Average

Data Source: SPEED

Regional Comparison: South Asia

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ag S

pendin

g a

s % o

f To

tal

18) Government Agriculture Spending as a Proportion of Total Government Spending in South Asian Countries, 2003-12

Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka SA Average

• Government vs Donor Spending Figure Numbers

• 19: Tanzania

• 20: Ethiopia

Addresses Question:

6. What are the trends in breakdown between government and

donor/other sources of funding?

Sources & Stability of Funding

Government vs Donor Spending: Tanzania

Data Source: MAFAP

85 99159

215 189 185219

315

4791

50

8582 94

66

34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rati

o o

f D

onor

to T

ota

l, %

Tota

l Agri

cult

ure

Spendin

g

(Const

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

19) Tanzania Agriculture Funding Sources, Donor & National Government, 2007-2014

National Gov Donor Ratio of Donor to Total

Government vs Donor Spending: Ethiopia

Data Source: MAFAP

41.1 48.1 71.4 84.7 84.9 124.644.0 50.6

25.5 46.1

161.4216.2

154.7

352.9569.2

607.3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rati

o o

f D

onor

to T

ota

l, %

Tota

l Agri

cult

ure

Spendin

g

(Const

ant

2011 U

SD

, M

illion)

20) Ethiopia Agriculture Funding Sources, Donor & National Government, 2006-2013

National Gov Donor Ratio of Donor to Total

• Key Government Agricultural Funding Areas Figure Numbers

• 21: Tanzania, 22: Ethiopia, 23: Nigeria, 24: India

• Key Donor Agricultural Funding Areas Figure Numbers

• 25: Tanzania, 26: Ethiopia

• Key Government & Donor Agricultural Funding Areas Figure Numbers

• 27: Tanzania, 28: Ethiopia


11. What are the key funding areas in public agriculture budgets, and what has

been the allocation across these investment areas?

12. For government funding, what have been the main areas of funding?

14. For donor/other funding (e.g., loans, grant aid, etc), what have been the main

expenditure areas for each?

Budget Allocations

Key Government Funding Areas: Tanzania

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% o

f G

overn

menta

l Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

21) Tanzania Key Governmental Agricultural Funding Areas, 2007-2014Other rural sector support

Rural infrastructure

Rural health

Rural education

Other general support

Marketing

Storage/public stockholding

Agricultural infrastructure

Inspection

Extension/techn transfer

Training

Technical assistance

Agricultural research

Payments to processors

Payments to producers

Key Government Funding Areas: Ethiopia

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% o

f G

overn

ment

Agri

cult

ura

l Expendit

ure

22) Ethiopia Key Government Agricultural Funding Areas, 2006-2013Other rural sector support


Rural health

Rural education


Marketing



Inspection

Extension/tech transfer

Training



Payments to consumers


Data Source: World Bank Nigeria Agricultural

Public Expenditure Review

Key Government Funding Areas: Nigeria

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010

% o

f fe

dera

l agir

uclt

ure

spendin

g

23) Nigeria Governmental Key Funding Areas, 2008-2010

Other

Parastatals - colleges andresearch institutesNFRA - fertilizer subsidy

Irrigation

Rural development

National Agricultural FoodReserve AgencyFisheries

Livestock

Crop agriculture

Data Source: Plan Documents and

Budget Documents of India

Key Government Funding Areas: India

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f centr

al govern

ment

agri

cult

ure

spendin

g

24) India Central Government Agriculture Expenditure Areas, 2002-2015

Other Agric. Programs

Cooperation

Agricultural Financial Inst.

Agric., Research & Edn.

Food Storage

Plantation

Forestry & Wild Life

Fisheries

Dairy Development

Animal Husbandry

Soil & Water Conservation

Horticulture

Crop Husbandry

Key Donor Funding Areas: Tanzania

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% o

f G

overn

menta

l Agri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

25) Tanzania Key Donor Agricultural Funding Areas, 2007-14

Other rural sector support


Rural health

Rural education


Marketing



Inspection


Training





Key Donor Funding Areas: Ethiopia

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% o

f D

onor

Agri

cult

ura

l Expendit

ure

26) Ethiopia Key Donor Agricultural Funding Areas, 2006-2013



Rural health

Rural education


Marketing



Inspection


Training





Key Government & Donor Funding Areas: TZ

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% o

f G

overn

menta

l A

gri

cult

ure

Expendit

ure

27) Tanzania Key Agricultural Funding Areas, Gov + Donor, 2007-2014



Rural health

Rural education


Marketing



Inspection


Training





Key Government & Donor Funding Areas: ET

Data Source: MAFAP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% o

f To

tal Agri

cult

ura

l Expendit

ure

28) Ethiopia Key Gov + Donor Agricultural Funding Areas, 2006-2013



Rural health

Rural education


Marketing



Inspection


Training





Evans School Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

Professor C. Leigh Anderson, Principal Investigator

Professor Travis Reynolds, co-Principal Investigator

EPAR uses an innovative student-faculty team model to provide

rigorous, applied research and analysis to international

development stakeholders. Established in 2008, the EPAR model

has since been emulated by other UW schools and programs to

further enrich the international development community and

enhance student learning.

Please direct comments or questions about this research to Principal Investigators C. Leigh Anderson and Travis Reynolds at

[email protected].

C. Leigh Anderson, Travis Reynolds, Pierre

Biscaye, Matthew Fowle, Andrew Orlebeke,

and Beijie Wang

AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE A : I , E , N T...2017/06/08 · AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE...

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