Agricultural commoditiesdata.daff.gov.au/.../AgCommodities201309_1.1.0.pdfABARES 2013, Agricultural...

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2013

© Commonwealth of Australia 2013

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Cataloguing data ABARES 2013, Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2013, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.

ISSN 189-5619 (printed) ISSN 189-5629 (online) ISBN 978-1-74323-146-3 (printed) ISBN 978-1-74323-135-6 (online) ABARES project 43006

Internet Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2013 is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

Contact Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web daff.gov.au/abares

Enquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be sent to [email protected].

The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

Economic overview 6

Agriculture 23

Crops

Wheat 24

Coarse grains 30

Oilseeds 39

Sugar 47

Cotton 56

Wine grape production projections to 2014–15 65

Livestock

Beef and veal 74

Sheep meat and wool 88

Pig meat 95

Chicken meat 99

Dairy 102

Farm debt: farm level analysis 109

Boxes

Understanding the nature of ABARES agricultural forecasts 19

Alternative sweeteners to sugar 51

Indian cotton industry 59

Effect on the cattle market of drought in Queensland 75

Live animal exports 82

Indonesian beef imports and reference price mechanism 83

Statistical tables 125

Report extracts 168

ABARES contacts 173

Contents

ABARES is delivering commodity forecasts, research and analysis directly to rural and regional Australia again in 2013.

Promoting discussion on industry productivity, community vitality and environmental sustainability, the 2013 conferences will balance national and regional perspectives; focus on the future; and emphasise agricultural, fisheries and forestry strategies that work in a context of economic volatility and climatic variability.

ABARES invites collaboration from regional, state and national agencies to focus on industries and issues relevant to each region.

Delegates from businesses, government, and the community will discuss industry trends, access forecasts and other information, make new contacts in their community and be exposed to new ideas while gaining an understanding of global issues that affect their region.

From 2013 ABARES is producing papers profiling agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities for 49 regions across Australia. These regional profiles can be accessed from the ABARES website.

Regional Outlook conferences 2013Future food, future farming

For inquiries and to register your interest contact

Anna Carr Director, Research Engagement and OutlookPhone +61 2 6272 2287Email [email protected]

daff.gov.au/abares/regional

2013 locations and dates

Tasmania Hobart 1 May

Victoria Cardinia 2 May

Queensland Townsville 12 June

South Australia Coonawarra 30 July

Western Australia Northam 1 August

New South Wales Tamworth 4 September

Northern Territory Darwin 10 October

Economic overview

6 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 3 • September quarter 2013

Economic overviewJenny Eather, Patrick Hamshere and Brian Moir

• Following growth of 3.2 per cent in 2012, world economic growth is assumed to remain subdued at 3.0 per cent in 2013, improving to 3.9 per cent in 2014.

• Emerging economies are expected to continue to be the main drivers of growth, despite slower growth in China and India.

• Economic growth in OECD economies is assumed to remain slow, while private demand is assumed to strengthen in the United States.

• The Australian dollar depreciated by 12 per cent against the US dollar between mid April and the end of June 2013, and is assumed to average around US92 cents in 2013–14.

Global economic growth remains subdued in 2013Global economic growth has been relatively subdued since the beginning of 2013. Recovery in OECD economies has continued at a slow pace, but market sentiment has improved in recent months. Activity in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin world economic growth. However, the outlook has weakened for some emerging markets in the last three months due to concerns about capital flow reversals and exchange rate volatility.

World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014a20122010200820062004200220001998

7

Economic overview

ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 3 • September quarter 2013

Demand in OECD economies is assumed to remain weak in the short term. In the United States, private demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery, despite large government spending cuts and a possible slowdown in the pace of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. Western Europe is assumed to remain in recession in 2013, before returning to modest growth in 2014.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.0 per cent in 2013 and improve to around 3.9 per cent in 2014. For OECD economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.1 per cent in 2013, before strengthening to 2.0 per cent in 2014.

For non-OECD Asian economies, the short-term outlook remains positive. Domestic demand in many non-OECD Asian economies has been relatively robust, limiting the effect of weak external demand on growth. Economic growth for developing countries as a whole is assumed to average 5.3 per cent in 2013, before strengthening to 5.9 per cent in 2014.

Regional economic growth

%world

Russian Federation,Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20122013a

2014a

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


8

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsKey macroeconomic assumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptions

ld

y pWorld unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 aEconomic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.0Economic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.0United States % 1 8 2 8 1 7 2 5United States % 1.8 2.8 1.7 2.5Japan % 0 6 2 0 1 8 1 2Japan % – 0.6 2.0 1.8 1.2W t E % 1 7 0 2 0 2 1 2Western Europe % 1.7 – 0.2 – 0.2 1.2– Germany % 3.1 0.7 0.3 1.5y– France % 1.7 0.0 – 0.2 0.9 France % 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.9– United Kingdom % 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.5– United Kingdom % 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.5– Italy % 0 4 – 2 4 – 1 8 0 5– Italy % 0.4 – 2.4 – 1.8 0.5Korea Rep of % 3 6 2 0 2 5 3 5Korea, Rep. of % 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.5New Zealand % 1 4 2 5 2 7 3 0New Zealand % 1.4 2.5 2.7 3.0

Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.3 5.9Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.3 5.9– non‐OECD Asia % 8.1 6.6 6.5 7.0– non‐OECD Asia % 8.1 6.6 6.5 7.0

South East Asia b % 4 5 6 1 5 6 5 7 South‐East Asia b % 4.5 6.1 5.6 5.7Chi % 9 3 7 7 7 3 7 6 China c % 9.3 7.7 7.3 7.6Tai an % 4 1 1 3 2 6 3 8 Taiwan % 4.1 1.3 2.6 3.8Si Singapore % 5.2 1.3 2.0 3.6g p

India % 7.7 4.0 5.0 6.3 India % 7.7 4.0 5.0 6.3– Latin America % 4.6 3.0 3.3 3.9 Latin America % 4.6 3.0 3.3 3.9Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 2.3 3.3Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 2.3 3.3Ukraine % 5 2 0 2 – 0 2 2 6Ukraine % 5.2 0.2 – 0.2 2.6Eastern Europe % 5 2 1 6 2 2 2 8Eastern Europe % 5.2 1.6 2.2 2.8W ld d % 4 0 3 2 3 0 3 9World d % 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.9

InflationUnited States % 3 2 2 1 1 8 1 9InflationUnited States % 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.9

Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

li 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14Australia unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 a

Economic growth % 2 4 3 4 2 8 2 5Economic growth % 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.5Inflation % 3 1 2 4 2 3 2 2Inflation % 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2Interest rates g % 6.6 6.2 5.3 5.1g

Australian exchange ratesAustralian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 0 99 1 03 1 02 0 92US$/A$ 0.99 1.03 1.02 0.92

f $TWI for A$ h 74 76 77 72$a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia








9

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesEconomic growth in the United States was slower in the first half of 2013, largely due to government spending cuts. Real gross domestic product rose at a year-on-year rate of 1.6 per cent in the June quarter 2013 following growth of 1.3 per cent (year-on-year) in the March quarter. This compares with 2.8 per cent for 2012 as a whole.

Government consumption fell at a year-on-year rate of 2.1 per cent in the June quarter 2013, after falling by 1.8 per cent in the March quarter. A large proportion of spending cuts have come from national defence spending, which decreased at a year-on-year rate of 6.1 per cent in the June quarter, following similar decreases in the previous two quarters. According to the US Congressional Budget Office, reduced public sector demand will subtract around 1.5 percentage points from economic growth in 2013.

Consumer spending, which accounts for around 70 per cent of gross domestic product, has continued to expand at a similar rate to 2012, despite tax increases at the beginning of 2013 that reduced take-home pay by more than 5 per cent. Consumer spending grew at a year-on-year rate of 1.8 per cent in the June quarter 2013, after expanding by 1.9 per cent in the March quarter. This compares with growth of 2.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole.

Over the outlook period improvements in consumer spending are expected to be supported by strengthening labour and housing markets. Median new house prices increased by 11 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2013 and new housing starts increased to their highest level since 2008. Non-farm employment expanded at an average rate of 195 000 positions per month in the first half of 2013, up from an average of 183 000 positions per month in 2012. However, unemployment in June 2013 remained unchanged from three months earlier at 7.6 per cent.

US unemployment rate

%

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

Dec2009

Jun2009

Dec2008

Jun2008

Dec2007

10

Economic overview


Growth in industrial production slowed in the June quarter 2013, expanding by 1.8 per cent year-on-year compared with 2.4 per cent in the March quarter and 3.6 per cent for 2012 as a whole. Export growth has also been relatively weak in recent quarters, increasing at a year-on-year rate of 1.0 per cent and 2.1 per cent in the March and June quarters 2013, respectively, compared with 3.5 per cent for 2012 as a whole.

In recent months the US Federal Reserve announced plans to reduce the pace of asset purchases later this year if the economy continues to grow as expected. The exact timing of the reduction in monetary stimulus adds uncertainty to the outlook, as a sudden reduction in monetary stimulus could lead to growth lower than currently assumed. However, officials have stressed that reductions in asset purchases will depend on continued improvements in the labour market.

In the short term, economic growth in the United States is assumed to remain relatively modest, with reduced public sector demand a key factor holding back economic growth. Further public spending cuts may result if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by October 2013, which according to Treasury Department projections is when the United States will reach the limit. Economic growth is assumed to average 1.7 per cent in 2013, increasing to 2.5 per cent in 2014, in line with strengthening private demand and a slowing pace of fiscal consolidation.

OECD economic growth


Western EuropeJapanUnited States

%–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2014a2013a

ChinaEconomic growth in China was 7.5 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2013, compared with 7.7 per cent in the March quarter and 7.7 per cent for 2012 as a whole. June 2013 was the fifth straight quarter in which the economy grew by less than 8 per cent.

Subdued external demand contributed to China’s slowdown. China’s exports have been weak in recent months, but closer monitoring to reduce misreporting of exports was also a factor in the weaker figures for the June quarter 2013. In the quarter, exports grew by 3.7 per cent year-on-year, down from 18.3 per cent in the March quarter and 7.9 per cent for 2012 as a whole. While a strengthening in world economic growth is likely to support China’s export performance in 2014, this outlook is uncertain because of downside risks associated with recoveries in the United States and Europe.

11

Economic overview


China’s export growth (change from corresponding quarter of previous year)

%

10

20

30

40

50

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

The slower growth seen in recent quarters also reflects China’s stage of development. In the past China was able to achieve rapid growth through high rates of investment and by moving surplus agricultural workers into higher paying factory jobs. Investment remains relatively strong in China, with fixed asset investment increasing at a year-on-year rate of 20 per cent in the June quarter 2013, compared with 21 per cent in both the March quarter and 2012 as a whole. However, continued high rates of investment are contributing to excess capacity in some sectors.

In the first half of 2013 the new leadership in China announced that slower growth is acceptable in the short term while much needed reforms are implemented to put China on a more sustainable growth path. Planned reforms focus on increasing domestic demand as a source of growth and increasing the efficiency and stability of the financial system.

This contrasts with the policies of the previous leadership that relied on rapid credit expansion and large infrastructure projects to boost short-term growth after the global financial crisis. Large liquidity injections to boost short-term growth are less likely than in recent years. This is because of increasing concerns by government officials about vulnerabilities in the financial system, such as high levels of local government debt and rapid growth in the size of the unregulated banking system.

Despite this decreased willingness to adopt monetary stimulus, moderate inflation does give policymakers scope to implement accommodative monetary policy if growth decelerates sharply. Inflation increased slightly in June 2013, but has remained under the Chinese Government’s target of 3.5 per cent since March 2012. Consumer prices grew year-on-year by 2.7 per cent in June 2013 compared with the same month last year, after growing by 2.1 per cent in the year to May.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.3 per cent in 2013, improving to 7.6 per cent in 2014 in line with strengthening external demand.

12

Economic overview


JapanEconomic activity in Japan has strengthened in recent months, expanding at a year-on-year rate of 1.2 per cent in the June quarter, compared with growth of 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013 and 0.4 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

Recent economic growth was largely a result of accommodative fiscal and monetary policy, including a 10.3 trillion yen fiscal stimulus measure announced by the Japanese Government in January 2013. Public sector demand contributed 0.9 percentage points to economic growth in the June quarter 2013, increasing at a year-on-year rate of 3.5 per cent in the June quarter 2013. This followed increases of 3.5 per cent in the March quarter and 4.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole.

Private sector demand strengthened a little in the June quarter, but remained weak largely reflecting reduced non-residential investment. Private sector demand increased at a year-on-year rate of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2013, compared with declines of 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent in the March and December quarters, respectively. Household spending grew at a year-on-year rate of 1.7 per cent in the June quarter 2013, up from 1.0 per cent in the March quarter.

In the near term, private sector activity is expected to be supported by government spending and an easing of monetary conditions, as the Bank of Japan attempts to achieve a 2 per cent inflation target. Growth is expected to ease in 2014, largely reflecting planned measures to reduce Japan’s public debt. An increase in the value added tax of 3 percentage points is planned for April 2014.

Exports have recovered in recent months growing at a year-on-year rate of 7.4 per cent in June 2013 following 10.1 per cent growth in May. This is an improvement on the weak export performance of 2012 as a whole when exports decreased by 2.7 per cent. Exports were supported by depreciation of the yen by 11 per cent against the US dollar in the first seven months of 2013. Despite strong export growth, industrial production remains relatively weak. Industrial production decreased at a year-on-year rate of 4.6 per cent in June 2013 and remains 11.8 per cent below a recent high in March 2012. This suggests that many exporters responded to stronger demand by running down inventories rather than increasing production. Consistent with this, inventory disinvestment shaved 0.5 percentage points off the economic growth rate in the June quarter. With inventories now at reduced levels, it is expected that production will increase in the short term to meet export demand.

Japan industrial production and exports

index2010=100

ExportsIndustrial production

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

13

Economic overview


In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 1.8 per cent in 2013. It is assumed to ease to 1.2 per cent in 2014, reflecting a more moderate stance on fiscal policy.

Western EuropeEconomic conditions were difficult in Western Europe in the first half of 2013, but showed signs of improvement in the June quarter. Real gross domestic product declined year-on-year in Italy by 2.8 per cent and in the United Kingdom by 1.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013. In the June quarter, the UK returned to positive growth, expanding at a year-on-year rate of 0.7 per cent, while the contraction in Italy eased slightly. Output also declined in Germany in the March quarter by 1.6 per cent year-on-year, although large-scale flooding in the south and north east of the country was largely to blame. Growth rebounded in the June quarter at a year-on-year rate of 0.9 per cent.

Fiscal austerity measures have adversely affected growth in Western Europe although the rate of fiscal consolidation has eased in 2013 in all countries except France.

Domestic demand in Western Europe increased in the June quarter 2013, but remains relatively weak. Consumption expenditure in France increased at a year-on-year rate of 0.9 per cent, up from 0.1 per cent in the March quarter and 0.2 per cent in 2012 as a whole. Similarly, in Germany, consumption expenditure increased by 1.1 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter after declining 0.2 per cent in March.

Declines in investment have also contributed to low growth across Western Europe. For example, real gross capital formation in France declined by 2.0 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2013, following a decline of 6.2 per cent in the March quarter as public and private investment contracted.

Real gross capital formation in selected European countries, year-on-year percentage change

%

United Kingdom

GermanyFrance

Italy

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

20

Jun2013

Mar2013

Dec2012

Sep2012

Jun2012

Mar2012

Dec2011

Sep2011

Jun2011

Mar2011

Dec2010

Sep2010

14

Economic overview


Demand for exports between European countries has remained weak. In May the real value of exports from EU countries to countries outside the European Union increased at a year-on-year rate of 8 per cent. However, this was almost completely offset by a 3.3 per cent decrease in intra-European trade, which makes up a larger proportion of EU country exports.

Unemployment remains high in most countries. In France, the unemployment rate reached 11 per cent in June 2013. In Italy, the unemployment rate remains above 12 per cent. In contrast to most of its neighbours, German unemployment remained steady at 5.4 per cent over the year to June 2013, the lowest unemployment rate for Germany in decades.

Unemployment rates in selected European economies

%

France

GermanyItaly

United Kingdom

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

Dec2009

Jun2009

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to contract by 0.2 per cent in 2013 as modest growth in the United Kingdom and Germany is expected to be outweighed by contractions in France and Italy. Some recovery is expected in 2014, when growth is assumed to be 1.2 per cent with increased private sector demand and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation.

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic growth in non-OECD Asia slowed in the first quarter of 2013. In the second quarter, economic performance was mixed, with some countries showing signs of recovery and others continuing to slow. For example, economic activity in Singapore increased at a year-on-year rate of 3.7 per cent in the June quarter 2013, up from 0.2 per cent in the March quarter and 1.3 per cent in 2012 as a whole. In Indonesia, economic growth slowed to 5.8 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter, down from 6.0 per cent in the March quarter and 6.3 per cent in 2012.

For many economies in the region, moderation of growth in the first half of 2013 was largely a result of subdued export demand from the United States, Europe and China. Because exports account for a relatively large share of economic activity in many Asian economies, declining exports can have an adverse effect on general economic activity. In Malaysia, exports fell at a year-on-year rate of 6.9 per cent in the month of June 2013, as manufacturing growth slowed to 1.5 per cent, down from 3.1 per cent in May.

15

Economic overview


In response to moderating growth, most governments in the region adopted accommodative monetary or fiscal policy to support demand in the first five months of 2013. However, since May 2013 some countries have raised interest rates amid concerns about capital outflows. Since the US Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would probably slow the rate of asset purchases later this year, bond yields in the United States have risen and differentials between US bonds and assets from emerging markets have narrowed. Capital inflows that were attracted by relatively high interest rates in some Asian countries have now begun to reverse.

Capital outflows can lead to increased inflationary pressures through the effect on the exchange rate. Capital outflows reduce demand for domestic currency, leading to currency depreciation. Imported goods become more expensive as a result. For example, Indonesia cited concerns about the inflationary impact of the fall in the rupiah as a reason for increasing the interest rate in July.

India is particularly vulnerable to capital outflows. As market sentiment toward US assets has improved, investors have become increasingly concerned about the sustainability of India’s fiscal and current account imbalances. On 28 August 2013 the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar as investors sold off Indian assets. Recent capital control and liquidity tightening measures have so far done little to contain inflation or the depreciation of the rupee. The outlook for India is uncertain, as tighter monetary policy can be expected to reduce domestic demand.

For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 6.5 per cent in 2013 and 7.0 per cent in 2014.

Economic growth in Asia

2014a

2013a

2012

Korea,Republic of

TaiwanIndia

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%

2

4

6

8

10


16

Economic overview


Economic prospects in AustraliaEconomic growth slowed slightly in the first half of 2013. Real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter, followed by 2.6 per cent in the June quarter, down from 3.1 per cent in the December quarter 2012. Business investment is likely to continue to support domestic demand in the short term despite declines in recent quarters. Growth in consumer spending weakened in the June quarter due to slower wage growth. However, record low interest rates are stimulating recovery in the housing market.

Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2013–14 following growth of 2.8 per cent in 2012–13.

Australian economic indicators

Interest rate bIn�ation rateEconomic growth

%

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013–14a2012–13a2011–12

InflationInflation in Australia remains modest. The consumer price index rose by 2.4 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2013, compared with 2.5 per cent in the March quarter.

The most significant price rises in the June quarter included medical and hospital services (up 3.4 per cent), tobacco (3 per cent), new dwelling purchases by owner–occupiers (0.9 per cent), furniture (4.8 per cent) and rents (1.1 per cent). Partially offsetting these rises were domestic holiday travel and accommodation (down 4 per cent) and automotive fuel (3.1 per cent).

Slower growth in consumer demand is expected to limit upward pressure on consumer prices, although prices for imported goods are expected to rise as they gradually respond to the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar. Unemployment increased slightly in June to 5.7 per cent. Soft labour market conditions are expected to lead to relatively weak consumption and price growth over the outlook period.

In 2013–14 inflation is assumed to average 2.2 per cent, compared with 2.3 per cent in 2012–13.

17

Economic overview


Australian exchange rateThe Australian dollar depreciated by 12 per cent against the US dollar between mid April and the end of June 2013 and subsequently averaged US91 cents in the first six weeks of 2013–14. For 2012–13 as a whole, the dollar averaged US102 cents, down slightly from US103 cents in 2011–12. Recent depreciation of the dollar reflected two main factors. First, market sentiment toward the US dollar improved in the second quarter of 2013 as signs of US economic recovery emerged. Second, world commodity prices have weakened over the past 18 months, leading to a decline in Australia’s terms of trade.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US92 cents for 2013–14 as a whole. On a trade-weighted basis, it is assumed to average around TWI 72 for the year.

While the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar will provide support for Australia’s export and import competing industries, the value of the Australian exchange rate remains relatively high in historical terms. Over the past two decades to 2013, the Australian dollar averaged around US75 cents.

Several factors support the assessment of a relatively high Australian dollar against the US dollar for the remainder of the year, although this outlook is uncertain. While recent partial indicators suggest a strengthening in the pace of US economic recovery, uncertainty over the stance of US fiscal policy means recovery in US private sector demand is assumed to be gradual. By contrast, economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2013–14, higher than the assumed growth rate of around 2 per cent for the US economy over this period. Relatively strong economic performance in Australia is expected to provide support for the Australian dollar.

In addition, assumed strengthening of world economic growth in 2014 is expected to increase commodity demand, supporting Australia’s export performance. This is also likely to improve financial market sentiment toward the Australian dollar, especially in the latter part of 2013–14.

However, further depreciation of the dollar could occur if growth in China is weaker than expected, if US recovery outperforms current expectations, or the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States narrows further. Given the uncertainty over movement in the Australian dollar, primary producers and exporters will need to manage risks associated with fluctuations in the Australian exchange rate.

Australian exchange rate

US$/A$

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


2013–14a

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

18

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to increase by around 1.7 per cent in 2013–14, following a decline of 2.9 per cent in 2012–13. This largely reflects higher forecast crop production.

The index of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.7 per cent in 2013–14, after declining by 7.7 per cent in 2012–13. This mainly reflects a forecast increase in wheat (10.8 per cent), barley (13.5 per cent) and grain sorghum production (17.3 per cent).

The volume of livestock production is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14, as forecast declines in lamb and sheep turn-offs mainly offset a modest increase in beef and veal production. This follows an increase of 3.5 per cent in 2012–13.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm commodities is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2013–14, after declining by 2.6 per cent in 2012–13. In 2013–14 higher expected world prices for dairy products, wool and lamb and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar are expected to more than offset the effect on unit export returns of forecast lower world prices for most grains and oilseeds.

Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $37.2 billion in 2013–14, slightly lower than in 2012–13 ($38 billion). In 2013–14 export earnings are forecast to fall for wheat (by 4 per cent), barley (by 7 per cent), canola (by 33 per cent), rice (by 11 per cent), grain sorghum (by 41 per cent), cotton (by 16 per cent) and sugar (by 10 per cent). Partially offsetting these declines are forecast increases in export earnings for wine (up 8 per cent), beef and veal (up 6 per cent) and dairy products (up 15 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to fall by 8.1 per cent in 2013–14 to $21.2 billion, following a rise of 6.6 per cent in 2012–13. This largely reflects the effect of the smaller crop produced in 2012–13 being exported in 2013–14. Export earnings from livestock products are forecast to increase by 7.6 per cent to $16.1 billion in 2013–14, following an increase of 1.4 per cent in 2012–13. The increase largely reflects forecast higher prices for lamb and dairy products on world markets.

Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to be around $1.25 billion in 2013–14, up 6 per cent from 2012–13.

In 2013–14 the value of forestry product exports is forecast to increase 6 per cent to around $2.2 billion, following a decline of 8.4 per cent in 2012–13.

The total value of Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports is forecast to be around $40.6 billion in 2013–14, a decline of 1.3 per cent from $41.2 billion in 2012–13.

19

Economic overview


Understanding ABARES agricultural forecastsABARES presents its forecasts of production, consumption, prices and exports of specific agricultural commodities as point forecasts. These forecasts are based on an economic assessment of data and information from various sources, supported by discussions with industry experts, use of quantitative analytical tools and professional judgement. Because they depend on information available at the time they are made, ABARES forecasts may differ from actual outcomes.

Price forecasts and actual outcomes of selected agricultural commodities in 2012–13

Unit2012–13

actualSeptember

2012 bDecember

2012 bMarch 2013 b

forecast error c forecast error c forecast error c

Wheat US$/t 348 350 0% 360 3% 362 4%

Lamb Ac/kg 382 460 21% 395 3% 380 0%

Beef Ac/kg 296 315 6% 310 5% 305 3%

Cheese US$/t 4 150 4 150 0% 4 150 0% 4 150 0%

Cotton USc/lb 87 86 1% 81 7% 85 2%

Wool Ac/kg 1 035 960 7% 1 000 3% 1 050 1%

Butter US$/t 3 650 3 350 8% 3 370 8% 3 370 8%

Sugar USc/lb 18 18 0% 18 0% 18 0%

a Wheat, cheese, butter, cotton and sugar are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are domestic prices in A$. b Release time of ABARES forecasts. c Expressed as percentage of actual outcome.

A key reason for differences occurring between forecasts and actual outcomes is that ABARES has to make assumptions about factors that can affect outcomes. As more information becomes available, ABARES updates earlier assumptions and revises forecasts. ABARES forecasts are therefore conditional on the information available at the time they are made.

Differences between forecasts and actual outcomes also reflect the effects of unforeseeable events. These can include policy changes, macroeconomic developments, climatic or seasonal conditions and demand and supply disruptions.

For example, the actual outcome of saleyard price for lambs in 2012–13 was affected by dry seasonal conditions in the main sheep producing regions, notably south-eastern parts of South Australia and western Victoria. In preparing the forecast of the 2012–13 lamb saleyard price in the September quarter 2012, ABARES assumed that seasonal conditions in the main sheep producing regions would be relatively favourable in 2012–13. Based on this assumption, ABARES forecast the saleyard price to average 460 cents a kilogram in 2012–13.

However, seasonal conditions were drier than expected in the first half of 2012–13, which led to a significant increase in lamb slaughter and availability. The increase in supply placed downward pressure on saleyard prices. Taking these developments into account, ABARES revised its forecast of average lamb saleyard price to 395 cents a kilogram in the December 2012 issue of Agricultural commodities, before making a further downward revision to 380 cents a kilogram in the March 2013 issue. The actual outcome for 2012–13 as a whole was 382 cents a kilogram.

continued...

20

Economic overview


Understanding ABARES agricultural forecasts continued

When preparing forecasts of agricultural production in Australia, ABARES takes into account information on the seasonal outlook released by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology and yield forecasts provided by the Agricultural Production System Research Unit of the Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Variations in these seasonal and yield forecasts will affect the ABARES forecast of domestic agricultural production.

Forecasts and actual outcome of winter crop production, Australia, 2012–13

Forecast2012–13 actual

Mt

10

20

30

40

50

Jun2013

Feb2013

Dec2012

Sep2012

Jun2012

Exchange rate movements can significantly affect agricultural prices and export earnings. Because most agricultural prices are denominated in US dollars on world markets, a significant decline or increase in the value of the US dollar against other floating international currencies can influence movements in world agricultural prices (Penm et al. 2002). Movement in the Australian dollar against the US dollar is also an important factor. A significant appreciation or depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar can markedly reduce or increase earnings for exporters and producers.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds any exchange rate outlook. This is because exchange rate movements can be significantly affected by changes in financial market sentiment, leading to strong volatility. For example, in April 2013 the Australian dollar averaged US104 cents but had fallen to US93 cents by the end of June 2013.

Events such as extreme seasonal conditions, supply disruptions and sharp exchange rate fluctuations, and their effects, cannot be predicted and incorporated into agricultural commodity forecasts before the event. While ABARES attempts to balance a range of upside and downside risks, some key judgements relating to forecasts will inevitably be different from actual outcomes.

Information about the potential risks posed by some factors to the point forecasts is useful for decision-makers in the agricultural sector. For this reason, ABARES discusses risk factors in the notes presented in Agricultural commodities. Decision-makers are encouraged to read the notes in full to gain a comprehensive understanding of the context of ABARES agricultural commodity forecasts.

ReferencePenm, J, Maurer, A, Fairhead, L & Tran, QT 2002, ‘US dollar: impacts of a depreciation of the US$ on Australian commodities’, Australian commodities, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 485–94, ABARE, Canberra.

21

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors

change from change from 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 previous year2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 previous year–09 –10 –11 –12 s –13 s –14 f 2012–13 2013–14–09 –10 –11 –12 s –13 s –14 f 2012–13 2013–14

% %% %Exchange rate US$/A$ 0 75 0 88 0 99 1 03 1 02 0 92 1 0 9 8Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.02 0.92 – 1.0 – 9.8Unit returns aFarm index 100.0 88.2 97.7 98.2 95.6 98.8 – 2.6 3.3U t etu s aFarm index 100.0 88.2 97.7 98.2 95.6 98.8 2.6 3.3

Value of exports A$m 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 782 41 168 40 638 3 5 1 3Value of exports A$m 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 782 41 168 40 638 3.5 – 1.3F A$ 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 327 37 952 37 228 4 5 1 9Farm b A$m 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 327 37 952 37 228 4.5 – 1.9– crops A$m 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 592 23 012 21 156 6.6 – 8.1 crops $– livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 940 16 072 1.4 7.6– livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 940 16 072 1.4 7.6Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 871 3 516 3 722 3 456 3 217 3 410 – 6.9 6.0Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 871 3 516 3 722 3 456 3 217 3 410 – 6.9 6.0 – forestry A$m 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042 2 164 – 8 4 6 0– forestry A$m 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042 2 164 – 8.4 6.0 fi h i A$ 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 245 4 2 6 0– fisheries A$m 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 245 – 4.2 6.0

Gross value of production cFarm A$m 41 929 39 667 46 981 48 067 47 343 49 009 – 1 5 3 5Gross value of production cFarm A$m 41 929 39 667 46 981 48 067 47 343 49 009 – 1.5 3.5

A$ 22 769 21 138 25 943 26 848 27 621 27 665 2 9 0 2– crops A$m 22 769 21 138 25 943 26 848 27 621 27 665 2.9 0.2$– livestock A$m 19 160 18 529 21 038 21 219 19 722 21 344 – 7.1 8.2 livestock

Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 973 3 968 4 092 3 963 3 897 4 049 – 1.7 3.9Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 973 3 968 4 092 3 963 3 897 4 049 1.7 3.9– forestry A$m 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 575 – 9.6 5.8 forestry A$m 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 575 – 9.6 5.8fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 409 2 474 4 0 2 7– fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 409 2 474 4.0 2.7

Volume of farm production d index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 116.6 118.6 – 2.9 1.7Volume of farm production d index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 116.6 118.6 2.9 1.7– crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 127.5 130.9 – 7.7 2.7– crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 127.5 130.9 – 7.7 2.7livestock index 100 6 98 7 100 6 101 0 104 5 105 2 3 5 0 7– livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 101.0 104.5 105.2 3.5 0.7

l k bProduction area and livestock numbersCrop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 876 23 792 – 1.7 – 0.4Crop area (grains and oilseeds) 000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 876 23 792 1.7 0.4Sheep million 72 7 68 1 73 1 74 7 73 8 74 4 – 1 2 0 8Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 74.4 – 1.2 0.8Cattle million 27 9 26 6 28 5 28 4 28 0 27 8 1 4 0 7Cattle million 27.9 26.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 – 1.4 – 0.7

Farm costs A$m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 441 36 952 37 789 – 1.3 2.3Farm costs A$m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 441 36 952 37 789 1.3 2.3Net cash income e A$m 5 865 9 999 15 410 15 698 15 589 16 546 – 0.7 6.1Net cash income e A$m 5 865 9 999 15 410 15 698 15 589 16 546 – 0.7 6.1Net value of farm production g A$m 5 298 5 207 10 466 10 626 10 390 11 220 2 2 8 0Net value of farm production g A$m 5 298 5 207 10 466 10 626 10 390 11 220 – 2.2 8.0

Farmers’ terms of trade index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.4 95.3 96.3 2.0 1.0Farmers terms of trade index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.4 95.3 96.3 2.0 1.0EmploymentA i lt f t d fi hiEmploymentAgriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 363 369 350 335 321 na – 4.0 naAustralia ’000 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563 na 1.3 naAustralia 000 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563 na 1.3 na

a Base: 2007–08 = 100. b Series revised back to 1988–89. c For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. d Chain weighted basis using Fishers’ ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. e Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. g Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








22

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports

worldpricevalue valuevolume

Wheat, cotton, sugar, canola and rice are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returnsor domestic prices in A$. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily re�ect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates.

2013–14

2012–13 s

2013–14 f

$b

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

$6.53b$6.78b

$5.15b$4.86b

$2.83b$2.86b

$1.96b$1.82b

$2.26b$2.69b

$1.50b$1.63b

$2.56b$2.23b

$1.41b$2.09b

$1.27b$1.40b

$1.12b$1.09b

$052b$0.48b

$0.47b$0.45b

$0.46b$0.52b

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Rice

Rock lobster

Mutton

Lamb

Sugar

Canola

Barley

Wine

Cotton

Dairy

Wool

Beef and veal

Wheat–4%

+6%

–1%

+15%

–16%

+8%

–7%

–33%

–10%

+3%

+9%

+4%

–11%

–10%

+6%

–4%

–5%

–24%

+5%

0%

–27%

0%

–11%

–18%

+2%

–8%

–12%

+3%

+6%

+21%

+2%

+2%

–7%

–17%

–11%

+15%

+33%

+2%

–2%

23

Economic overview


AgricultureCrops


WheatNeil Thompson

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to average US$305 a tonne. While the world indicator price for wheat is forecast to decline, the extent of the decline is less than the expected falls in prices of other varieties of wheat on world markets. This reflects an expected smaller increase in world production in 2013–14 of higher protein wheat varieties, including US hard red winter wheat. By contrast, production of lower protein wheat varieties, including France class 1, US soft red winter wheat and Australian premium white wheat, is forecast to rise more substantially.

World wheat prices, monthly

US$/t

US no. 2 HRW fob GulfFrance class 1 fob RouenUS SRW fob Gulf

100

200

300

400

Aug2013

May2013

Feb2013

Nov2012

Aug2012

May2012

Feb2012

World production to increase in 2013–14World total wheat production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 695 million tonnes. Wheat production is forecast to increase in most of the major growing regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly, the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) and the European region. The notable exception is the United States where production is forecast to fall.

25

Wheat


World wheat production

Other IndiaChina

Black Sea regionEuropean UnionUnited States

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Wheat production in the Black Sea region is forecast to reach almost 90 million tonnes in 2013–14, 41 per cent higher than in 2012–13. This forecast increase is largely driven by the Russian Federation, where wheat production is forecast to rise by 38 per cent to around 52 million tonnes. The Russian wheat harvest is well under way and reported yields are significantly higher than last season’s drought affected crop. However, rainfall in parts of the north-east growing region has slowed the harvest and raised concerns about wheat quality.

In Ukraine, wheat production is forecast to increase by 33 per cent in 2013–14 to around 21 million tonnes. Like the Russian Federation, yields in Ukraine are higher than last year but rainfall during the harvest period has resulted in a downgrade of crop quality.

Wheat production in Kazakhstan is forecast to increase by 68 per cent in 2013–14 to around 17 million tonnes. Crop yields in Kazakhstan, which grows spring wheat that will be harvested later, are expected to benefit from recent rainfall without the adverse effects on quality.

Wheat production in the European Union is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to around 141 million tonnes. Growing conditions throughout the season were generally favourable resulting in a forecast average yield of 5.5 tonnes to the hectare.

In Canada, wheat production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to around 30 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 7 per cent increase in planted area under the assumption of average yields.

Wheat production in the United States is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 58 million tonnes, due mainly to the adverse effect of drought conditions. The drought had a significant effect in the major winter wheat producing states of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska, which resulted in an estimated 24 per cent of the planted area being abandoned, the highest abandonment rate since 2002–03.

26

Wheat


United States winter wheat, estimated abandonment rate, selected states

%

Five-year average to 20112012

2013s

s USDA estimate. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Texas

Oklahoma

Nebraska

Kansas

Colorado

Despite the high abandonment rate, estimated yields of the winter wheat crops harvested are only slightly down from last year. Additionally, the quality and protein levels of hard wheat varieties—important for use in bread and noodle production—are generally better than last year.

By the start of the planting window for spring wheat in the major growing states of North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota, the drought had eased but conditions remained dry. In response to the prevailing conditions, producers reduced the area planted to spring wheat. With seasonal conditions improving over the growing season, spring wheat yields are expected to increase, partially offsetting the effect on production of a smaller planted area.

In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to rise by 34 per cent in 2013–14 to around 11 million tonnes. This forecast increase reflects expected higher yields, following a rain affected harvest last season and a significant increase in the area planted to wheat this season.

For other major producers, wheat production in China is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2013–14 at around 121 million tonnes. Production in India is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to around 93 million tonnes, down from the record of around 95 million tonnes last season. Wheat quality has been a major concern, particularly in China. Around 15 per cent of China’s wheat production (up to 20 million tonnes) is expected to be downgraded to feed use because of frost damage during winter and excessive rainfall during harvest.

Wheat consumption higherWorld consumption of wheat is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 694 million tonnes. An expected increase in the availability of low quality wheat is forecast to result in a 6 per cent increase in the use of wheat for livestock feed, particularly in China where there is a large and growing livestock sector.

27

Wheat


Trade to rise on higher Russian Federation exportsWorld trade in wheat is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 147 million tonnes. This forecast increase largely reflects an increase in supplies available for export in most major exporting countries and higher import demand, particularly in China, Turkey, Brazil and Syria.

The forecast increase in wheat production in the Black Sea region is expected to be the main support for higher world trade in 2013–14. Exports from the Russian Federation are forecast to rise by 47 per cent to around 17 million tonnes, while shipments from Kazakhstan are forecast to increase by 45 per cent to around 9 million tonnes. In Ukraine, wheat exports are also forecast to rise, reaching 8 million tonnes in 2013–14.

In most other major exporters (except Australia), shipments are also forecast to rise. Despite a forecast decline in production, exports from the United States are forecast to increase by 9 per cent to around 30 million tonnes, supported by an expected drawdown in stocks. Wheat exports are forecast to rise by 2 per cent in the European Union and 5 per cent in Canada, reaching around 24 million tonnes and 20 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013–14. In Argentina, wheat exports are forecast to increase by 63 per cent in 2013–14 to around 7 million tonnes, reflecting the forecast increase in production.

In India, production in 2013–14 is forecast to again exceed 90 million tonnes and exports are expected to remain largely unchanged at around 7 million tonnes.

World stocks to increase marginallyWorld wheat closing stocks are forecast to rise by less than 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 175 million tonnes. Closing stocks are forecast to increase in most countries that are major wheat producers, except the United States and India. The Indian Government is expected to keep trying to reduce its stock holdings by increasing purchasing subsidies for poor consumers and releasing reserves to exporters. At 1 July 2013 India’s wheat stocks totalled 42.4 million tonnes, more than 20 million tonnes above the government’s target.

World wheat closing stocks

Mt

50

100

150

200

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

28

Wheat


Australia Wheat production to riseAustralian wheat production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to around 24.5 million tonnes. This reflects an estimated 4 per cent rise in planted area and a forecast increase in average yield.

Rainfall during winter varied in major growing regions, with below average rainfall in parts of New South Wales, Queensland and northern growing areas of Western Australia. By contrast, winter temperatures and rainfall were generally favourable in South Australia, Victoria and southern growing areas of Western Australia, where crops are in generally good condition.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook, issued on 28 August 2013, suggests an above average chance of exceeding median rainfall in most cropping regions in eastern Australia and an average chance of exceeding median rainfall in Western Australia.

While the rainfall outlook is positive, timeliness of falls during spring will be critical to achieving the forecast increase in wheat production. With soil moisture presently at low levels, yields could be lower than expected if crops do not receive timely spring rainfall.

Export earnings to declineAustralian wheat exports are forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to around 19.2 million tonnes. Although wheat production is forecast to increase, the supply of wheat available for export is expected to decline, reflecting significant reductions in production and stocks in 2012–13. The average export price for Australian wheat is forecast to decline modestly in 2013–14 as an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar largely offsets the effect of expected falls in world wheat prices. The value of wheat exports is forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to $6.5 billion. This compares with the average of $4.8 billion in the 10 years to 2012–13 in real terms.

Australian wheat exports

Export volume

Mt2013–14$b

Export value(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

5

10

15

20

25

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

29

Wheat


Wheat outlook

% 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

% change2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

W ldWorldProduction Mt 695 653 695 6.4Production Mt 695 653 695 6.4– China Mt 117 121 121 0 3– China Mt 117 121 121 0.3European Union 27 Mt 137 130 141 8 2– European Union 27 Mt 137 130 141 8.2I di Mt 87 95 93 2 5– India Mt 87 95 93 – 2.5

– Russian Federation Mt 56 38 52 37.9– United States Mt 54 62 58 – 6.8 United States Mt 54 62 58 6.8

Consumption Mt 696 673 694 3 1Consumption Mt 696 673 694 3.1h 9 6 6– human Mt 459 464 471 1.6

– feed Mt 151 130 137 5.5 feed Mt 151 130 137 5.5

Closing stocks Mt 194 174 175 0 6Closing stocks Mt 194 174 175 0.6St k t ti % 28 26 25 2 5Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 28 26 25 – 2.5Trade Mt 145 140 147 5.3Exports aExports aArgentina Mt 13 4 7 62 5– Argentina Mt 13 4 7 62.5

M 23 21 19 9 8– Australia b Mt 23 21 19 – 9.8– Canada Mt 18 19 20 4.8 Canada Mt 18 19 20 4.8– European Union 27 Mt 17 24 24 1.5 European Union 27 Mt 17 24 24 1.5– Kazakhstan Mt 11 6 9 45 2– Kazakhstan Mt 11 6 9 45.2Russian Federation Mt 22 11 17 47 3– Russian Federation Mt 22 11 17 47.3Uk i Mt 5 7 8 11 1– Ukraine Mt 5 7 8 11.1

– United States Mt 29 27 30 9.2U ted StatesPrice c US$/t 299 348 305 – 12 4Price c US$/t 299 348 305 – 12.4AustraliaArea ’000 ha 13 902 13 243 13 712 3.5Area 000 ha 13 902 13 243 13 712 3.5Production kt 29 905 22 079 24 467 10 8Production kt 29 905 22 079 24 467 10.8Exports b kt 23 026 21 270 19 179 9 8Exports b kt 23 026 21 270 19 179 – 9.8

l A$ 6 378 6 776 6 533 3 6– value A$m 6 378 6 776 6 533 – 3.6APW 10 net pool return A$/t 263 326 324 – 0.7APW 10 net pool return A$/t 263 326 324 0.7a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics





Coarse grainsDavid Mobsby

The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 25 per cent in 2013–14 to US$235 a tonne. This mostly reflects a forecast large increase in US corn production, leading to a recovery in world coarse grains supplies. The world barley indicator price (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 21 per cent (to US$235 a tonne) due to a forecast increase in world barley production.

World coarse grains prices

Closing stocks

Mt2013–14US$/t

French Rouen feedbarley (right axis)

US corn fob Gulf ports (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

World coarse grains prices have declined in recent months. The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) fell 13 per cent from US$282 a tonne in July to US$247 a tonne in August 2013. This largely reflected expectations of a record US corn crop with harvest beginning in September 2013. The world barley indicator price fell 12 per cent from US$268 a tonne in May to US$237 a tonne in July 2013, with prospects of a large northern hemisphere barley crop in sight.

31

Coarse grains


World coarse grains prices, monthly

US$/t

US corn fob Gulf ports

Rouen feed barley

Aug2013

Apr2013

Dec2012

Aug2012

Apr2012

Dec2011

Aug2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Record production forecast for major producersWorld coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 1.25 billion tonnes. This is mainly due to a forecast increase in corn production in the United States (to a record high).

CornWorld corn production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 957 million tonnes, largely due to forecast higher production in the United States.

Corn production in the United States is forecast to rise by 28 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 350 million tonnes. A forecast 26 per cent increase in yields from the drought-affected season of 2012–13 is expected to drive the forecast increase in production. While dry conditions have persisted in a few regions, generally favourable seasonal conditions prevailed across major growing regions in recent months. In early September 54 per cent of the US corn crop was rated as being in good to excellent condition, compared with 22 per cent at the same time in 2012–13.

US corn condition, percentage rated good to excellent

%

2012–13

2013–14

Note: Week numbers refer to the number of weeks from the beginning of the calendar year.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Week31

Week33

Week29

Week27

Week25

Week23

Week21

Week19

32

Coarse grains


In China, corn production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 211 million tonnes. The total harvested area of corn is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 35.6 million hectares, while yields are expected to rise by 1 per cent to around 5.9 tonnes per hectare.

In Ukraine, corn production is forecast to rise by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 26 million tonnes, primarily reflecting a forecast 19 per cent increase in the average yield to 5.5 tonnes per hectare. Additionally, the area planted to corn is expected to rise by 6 per cent.

Harvesting of the 2012–13 corn crops is now largely complete in Latin America. Argentina and Brazil are estimated to have produced record corn crops of around 32 million tonnes and 80 million tonnes, respectively.

Corn production, Brazil

Mt

20

40

60

80

100

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

f ABARES forecast.

In 2013–14 corn production is forecast to fall in Argentina by 16 per cent (to 27 million tonnes) and in Brazil by 10 per cent (to 72 million tonnes). The forecast fall in production largely reflects an expected fall in the area planted to corn in Latin America in response to the forecast fall in world corn prices.

BarleyWorld barley production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 143 million tonnes, driven by estimated production increases in the European Union and the Russian Federation. If realised, this would be the highest level of production since 2009–10. Production increases are expected for all major exporting countries except Argentina.

Barley production in the European Union is estimated to have increased by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 59 million tonnes, driven by a large production increase in Spain. Across the European Union, favourable seasonal conditions have resulted in yields estimated to be above their five-year average to 2012–13.

33

Coarse grains


In Canada, barley production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.8 million tonnes. Generally favourable growing conditions are expected to result in a 16 per cent rise in barley yields, which will more than offset an estimated 5 per cent fall in harvested area. In late August 2013, 88 per cent of the barley crop was rated good to excellent in Canada’s major barley producing province of Alberta.

Harvesting of winter barley in the Black Sea region began in June 2013, two to three weeks earlier than usual due to warmer conditions. Barley production in the Russian Federation is estimated to have increased by 22 per cent to 17 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in harvested area and an estimated rise in yield compared with that achieved in 2012–13. In Ukraine, barley production is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to 7.7 million tonnes, largely due to a forecast increase in yield.

In Argentina, barley production is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 5 million tonnes. Producers are expected to switch from barley to wheat because the Argentine Government introduced rebates on wheat export taxes, making wheat a more attractive crop to produce. The area planted to barley is therefore forecast to fall by 23 per cent to 1.4 million hectares.

Barley production major exporters

ArgentinaAustraliaCanadaUkraine

Mt

30

60

90

120

150

Russian Federation European Union

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

f ABARES forecast.

Lower prices boost coarse grains consumptionWorld coarse grains consumption is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.22 billion tonnes, driven by an expected increase in the feed use of coarse grains. Total corn consumption is forecast to rise by 7 per cent to a record 931 million tonnes, while total barley consumption is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 140 million tonnes.

Total feed use of coarse grains is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 718 million tonnes, which reflects the combined effects of forecast lower coarse grains prices and an expected expansion of livestock industries. The feed use of barley and corn is expected to increase.

34

Coarse grains


Feed use of barley is forecast to grow by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 95 million tonnes in response to lower feed barley prices. Feed barley consumption is forecast to rise by 2 per cent (to 38 million tonnes) in the European Union and by 17 per cent (to 9 million tonnes) in the Russian Federation. Feed barley consumption in the Middle East and North Africa is forecast to grow by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 26 million tonnes.

Total feed use of corn is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to around 560 million tonnes. In the United States, feed use of corn is forecast to rise sharply by 15 per cent to 130 million tonnes in response to expected lower feed grain prices and an increase in poultry and swine production. Similarly, feed use of corn in Brazil is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 47 million tonnes. In China, an expected expansion of livestock production is forecast to lead to a 6 per cent increase (to a record 152 million tonnes) in feed use of corn. However, with high domestic supplies of feed wheat reducing the reliance on corn for livestock feed this is a slower rate of growth than the previous year.

Total food, seed and industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 498 million tonnes, largely due to rising US consumption. In the United States, production of ethanol from corn is forecast to increase in 2013–14, with producers expected to respond to improved producer margins. The improved margins are expected to result from the forecast fall in corn prices and strong energy prices. Additionally, US demand for ethanol is forecast to remain strong in 2013–14 as the volume of renewable fuels required to be blended into conventional fuels increase to 63 billion litres in 2013 and 69 billion litres in 2014. Of this, 52 billion litres in 2013 and 55 billion litres in 2014 are expected to be sourced from corn-based ethanol.

World coarse grains consumption

Food, seed and industrialFeed

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

300

600

900

1200

1500

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

35

Coarse grains


US corn exports to drive world tradeWorld coarse grains trade is forecast to increase by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to 147 million tonnes, driven by an expected significant increase in world corn trade.

While world corn trade is expected to increase, world barley trade is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 19 million tonnes. Low opening stocks in several major exporting countries are expected to lead to reduced exports, despite an expected increase in world production. Barley exports from the European Union, Canada and Argentina are all expected to fall. By contrast, barley exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are forecast to rise.

Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the largest export destination for barley in 2013–14. However, imports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.5 million tonnes, due to high carry-over stocks. Imports of barley by other Middle Eastern and North African nations are forecast to remain strong in 2013–14, but lower than the previous year due to higher domestic production. Conversely, China is forecast to increase barley imports by 14 per cent to 2.5 million tonnes.

World corn trade is forecast to rise by 26 per cent in 2013–14 to 113 million tonnes, driven by an expected 12 million tonne increase in US exports to 31 million tonnes. If this forecast is realised, the United States will regain its position as the world’s leading corn exporter.

Corn exports from Latin America are forecast to fall in 2013–14, reflecting an expected decline in domestic production. Corn exports from Argentina and Brazil are forecast to fall by 5 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, to 18 million tonnes and 19 million tonnes. By contrast, record corn production in Ukraine is expected to lead to a 22 per cent increase in exports to a record 16.5 million tonnes.

Japan is forecast to increase corn imports by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 15.5 million tonnes, reversing a six-year declining trend. China is forecast to import 7 million tonnes of corn, up from 3 million tonnes in 2012–13. Corn imports in South-East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America (excluding Argentina and Brazil) are forecast to increase in 2013–14 and collectively account for around 40 per cent of world trade.

Corn trade, the four major corn exporters

Ukraine Brazil Argentina United States

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

20

40

60

80

100

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

36

Coarse grains


Coarse grains stocks to rise on US supplyWorld coarse grains stocks are forecast to rise by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 182 million tonnes, the highest level since 2009–10. Corn stocks are forecast to increase by 21 per cent to around 150 million tonnes, largely due to a sharp rise in US corn stocks, which are forecast to more than double to 46 million tonnes. World barley stocks are forecast to rise by 15 per cent to 23 million tonnes, increasing from the 30-year low of around 20 million tonnes in 2012–13.

World coarse grains closing stocks

Other Barley Corn

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

50

100

150

200

250

AustraliaHigher Australian production in 2013–14Australian coarse grains production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 11.7 million tonnes. Production increases are forecast for barley, grain sorghum and oats, while maize and triticale production is forecast to fall.

Barley production is forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.7 million tonnes, slightly below the five-year average to 2011–12. Favourable seasonal conditions in South Australia and Victoria have led to a forecast significant increase in barley production in those states. In Western Australia, barley production in 2013–14 is forecast to increase by 8 per cent from the drought-affected production of last year. By contrast, barley production is forecast to fall in New South Wales and Queensland with yields expected to decline as a result of less than favourable seasonal conditions.

Summer cropping regions are presently dry. Sufficient and timely rainfall is needed before and during the planting window for summer crops. If this occurs, the area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to around 634 000 hectares. This forecast rise is driven by relatively high domestic grains prices and the availability of fallow land in New South Wales. Production of grain sorghum is forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around 2 million tonnes, assuming average yields.

37

Coarse grains


Australian barley production

QueenslandNew South WalesVictoria

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

South AustraliaWestern Australia

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Export earnings to fall in 2013–14Australian coarse grains exports are forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2013–14 (July to June) to 6.2 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast 41 per cent fall in grain sorghum exports to 766 000 tonnes. The forecast fall in grain sorghum exports reflects below average production in 2012–13, which has reduced supplies available for export in 2013–14. Barley exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged at 5.2 million tonnes in 2013–14.

Australian coarse grains exports

Other Grain sorghum Barley

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

The total value of coarse grain exports is forecast to fall by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to $1.8 billion, reflecting forecast falls in coarse grains export shipments and world coarse grains prices. However, an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to partially offset the adverse impact of these reductions on export earnings. The values of barley and grain sorghum exports in 2013–14 are forecast to fall by 7 per cent to $1.5 billion and by 41 per cent to $216 million, respectively.

38

Coarse grains


Coarse grains outlookC i tl kCoarsegrainsoutlook%

gf

% hunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

WorldProduction Mt 1 155 1 134 1 247 10 0WorldProduction Mt 1 155 1 134 1 247 10.0barley Mt 134 130 143 10 0– barley Mt 134 130 143 10.0

883 863 9 10 9– corn Mt 883 863 957 10.9Consumption Mt 1 155 1 146 1 216 6.1Consumption Mt 1 155 1 146 1 216 6.1Trade Mt 149 119 147 23 5Trade Mt 149 119 147 23.5Closing stocks Mt 166 152 182 19 7Closing stocks Mt 166 152 182 19.7St k t ti % 14 13 15 15 4Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 13 15 15.4Corn price (fob Gulf, Jul–Jun) US$/t 281 312 235 – 24.7

p (fob Gulf, Jul Jun) US$/t 281 312 235 24.7Barley price(fob Rouen Jul Jun) US$/t 270 296 235 20 6Barley price (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 270 296 235 – 20.6AustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 323 5 252 5 469 4.1Area 000 ha 5 323 5 252 5 469 4.1– barley ’000 ha 3 718 3 680 3 747 1.8– barley 000 ha 3 718 3 680 3 747 1.8– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 565 634 12 2– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 565 634 12.2

dProduction kt 12 457 10 455 11 725 12.1– barley kt 8 221 6 761 7 673 13.5 barley kt 8 221 6 761 7 673 13.5– grain sorghum kt 2 239 1 721 2 020 17.4– grain sorghum kt 2 239 1 721 2 020 17.4

E kt 7 911 6 649 6 180 7 1Exports a kt 7 911 6 649 6 180 – 7.1p– value A$m 2 245 2 060 1 800 – 12.6 value $Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 202 – 17.2Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 202 17.2Malting barley price c A$/t 201 255 222 – 12 9Malting barley price c A$/t 201 255 222 – 12.9a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARE estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARE estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture




39ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 3 • September quarter 2013

Oilseeds prices to fall in 2013–14The world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to decline by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to US$510 a tonne. The primary drivers of this expected decline are forecast higher production and rising stocks in the major soybean producing countries. However, in Latin America favourable seasonal conditions during the planting window (which begins in October) and growing season are critical to realising the forecast of record soybean production. If Latin America experiences unfavourable seasonal conditions that result in lower than expected production, this would likely cause the world oilseeds indicator price to average higher than currently forecast.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to US$520 a tonne. Between mid June and late July 2013 the world canola indicator price fell from more than US$620 a tonne to around US$460 a tonne. This decline was largely driven by higher than expected production of canola and sunflower seed in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the European Union and the Black Sea region. In August 2013 the world canola indicator price averaged US$478 a tonne. Canola prices are expected to average higher in the second half of 2013–14, which reflects the expected effects of stronger demand and only a small increase in world supplies.

World canola supply and price

Opening stocks

Production

Mt 2013–14US$/t

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

OilseedsBeth Deards

40

Oilseeds


Record production of soybeans and canola in 2013–14World oilseeds production is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 487 million tonnes. World production of soybeans and canola are forecast to be record highs, while sunflower seed production is forecast to be the second largest on record.

CanolaWorld canola production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to reach a record 64 million tonnes. While the European Union is forecast to remain the world’s largest producer of canola, Canada is expected to overtake China as the second largest producer.

Rapeseed (canola) production in the European Union is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 20.3 million tonnes, largely the result of more favourable seasonal conditions than last year. If realised, this will be the third largest volume produced on record and only 6 per cent below the record of 21.6 million tonnes in 2009–10. According to the European Commission, rapeseed yields are likely to be above average in Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, but below average in the United Kingdom.

In Canada, canola production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 14.9 million tonnes. Conditions have been largely favourable this season and the average yield is forecast to increase significantly following adverse conditions last year.

Rapeseed (canola) production in China is forecast to increase marginally in 2013–14 to 14.1 million tonnes, which reflects an expected rise in the area planted to rapeseed. Chinese producers increased the area planted to rapeseed marginally in response to a 2 per cent rise in the government purchase price.

In Ukraine, rapeseed production is forecast to rise by 76 per cent in 2013–14 to around 2.2 million tonnes. This is largely due to a 75 per cent increase in the rapeseed area harvested following a high level of winterkill last year.

SoybeansWorld production of soybeans is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 279 million tonnes. This forecast is underpinned by an expected increase in production in the United States and the prospect of record production in Latin America.

In the United States, soybean production is forecast to rise by around 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 85.7 million tonnes. This reflects a forecast recovery in the average yield by around 3 per cent following an improvement in seasonal conditions from last year. As of early September, 52 per cent of the soybean crop was rated as good to excellent, compared with 32 per cent at the same time last year. A possible downside risk to this forecast is the potential for frost damage toward the end of the season which is more likely than usual given the planting delays and late harvest for this season.

Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is forecast to rise by 5 per cent and 10 per cent in 2013–14, respectively, to 85 million tonnes and 53.5 million tonnes, assuming favourable seasonal conditions. If realised, this forecast production would be a record. The expected production increases reflect a rise in the area planted to soybeans in both countries, largely driven by favourable returns to soybeans compared with corn. Higher yields are also expected, particularly in Argentina.

41

Oilseeds


Soybean production in India is forecast to rise by around 14 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 12.5 million tonnes. Favourable monsoon rains during this season’s planting window increased soil moisture and producers responded by increasing the area planted to soybeans by 10 per cent to a record 12.1 million hectares.

In contrast to other major producers, soybean production in China is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to around 12 million tonnes. This reflects a continued decline in the area planted to soybeans as producers switch to more profitable crops such as corn.

Soybean production changes, major producers, 2013–14

Mt

0

IndiaChinaArgentinaBrazilUnitedStates

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sunflower seedWorld sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 40 million tonnes. If realised, this forecast production would be the second largest on record and only 2 per cent below the historical high of almost 41 million tonnes in 2011–12.

After a less than favourable growing season in 2012–13, sunflower seed production in the Russian Federation and Ukraine is forecast to increase by 10 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, to 8.8 million tonnes and 9.4 million tonnes in 2013–14.

Sunflower seed production in the European Union is forecast to increase by 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.3 million tonnes, the second largest crop on record. While the area planted to sunflower seed increased marginally this season, warmer temperatures and sufficient moisture aided crop development and are expected to result in improved yields to around average.

Sunflower seed production in Argentina is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 3.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast rise in planted area from last year when planting intentions were not fulfilled because of floods.

42

Oilseeds


China and Argentina to increase soybean crushWorld oilseeds crush is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 408 million tonnes.

Soybean crush is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 239 million tonnes, primarily driven by a higher crush in Argentina and China. In Argentina, soybean crush is forecast to increase this season as a result of an expected recovery in domestic and export demand for biodiesel and soybean oil.

Despite a 5 per cent rise in canola production, canola crush is forecast to increase by only 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 61 million tonnes. The forecast rise in crush is expected to be limited by reduced carryover stocks from the previous season, which is expected to constrain the increase in canola supplies. Additionally, demand for rapeseed oil from the European Union is expected to be subdued. In 2013–14 rapeseed (canola) crush in the European Union is forecast to remain largely unchanged from the previous season at around 21.6 million tonnes.

Sunflower seed crush is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 35.5 million tonnes, reflecting higher crush in the Black Sea region and the European Union. In Ukraine, most sunflower seed production is crushed domestically largely due to an export duty for sunflower seed. The higher production of sunflower seed in Ukraine is expected to result in a 10 per cent rise in crush to around 9 million tonnes. This will significantly increase supplies of sunflower seed meal and sunflower seed oil available for export.

Production, crush and exports of sunflower seed, Ukraine

Mt

ProductionCrushExports

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

43

Oilseeds


Consumption to reach record highs in 2013–14World oilseeds consumption is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 477 million tonnes, largely driven by rising demand for vegetable oils and protein meals.

World consumption of vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 164 million tonnes. This largely reflects increasing food consumption of vegetable oils, particularly by developing countries. Industrial use of vegetable oils is also forecast to rise, with the rise in industrial use of palm oil and soybean oil expected to be the greatest. In October 2012 the European Commission proposed a revision of the renewable fuel target of 10 per cent of transportation fuel by 2020 so food-based biofuels would account for a maximum of 5 per cent. The European Parliament will vote on the proposal later in 2013.

World consumption of protein meals is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 271 million tonnes. Most major consumers of protein meals are expected to increase consumption this season, as forecast higher world supplies and lower prices increase the economic competiveness of protein meal as an animal feed.

Food consumption of oilseeds is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 37 million tonnes, reflecting higher food consumption of peanuts and soybeans. Although a relatively small component of total oilseeds consumption, food consumption of oilseeds grew steadily over the past decade from around 29 million tonnes in 2002–03 to 36.6 million tonnes in 2012–13. China is the largest consumer of oilseeds for food; consumption is forecast to reach almost 17 million tonnes in 2013–14.

Food consumption of oilseeds, China

Sun�ower seed

Soybeans

Peanuts

Mt

3

6

9

12

15

18

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

44

Oilseeds


Trade to rise on strong demandWorld trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 119 million tonnes. Exports of soybeans, canola and sunflower seed are forecast to increase as a result of higher production, strong demand in importing countries and declining international prices.

Soybean exports are forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 102 million tonnes, mostly due to a forecast rise in imports by China. Chinese imports of soybeans are expected to reach a record of almost 70 million tonnes, driven by the combined effects of higher demand from the crushing industry, an expected decline in domestic production and lower carryover stocks.

Canola exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 12.4 million tonnes, largely as a result of forecast higher shipments from Canada and Ukraine. In contrast, exports from Australia are expected to fall by around 27 per cent.

Exports of sunflower seed are forecast to rise by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.7 million tonnes following a significant decline in the previous season. However, this forecast level of exports remains well below the 2 million tonnes exported in 2011–12 mostly as a result of larger domestic crops grown by major importers, particularly Turkey. Most of the increase in exports is expected to be supplied by the European Union and the Russian Federation. However, exports from the Russian Federation are expected to be limited by strong demand from domestic crushers.

Stocks to rise in major producing countriesWorld closing stocks of oilseeds are forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2013–14 to around 81 million tonnes. A forecast increase in soybean stocks to around 70 million tonnes is the primary driver of this rise. Compared with the previous season, soybean stocks are forecast to be particularly high in Latin America, which reflects the prospect of record production. China is also expected to build soybean stocks in 2013–14 after a steep decline in the previous season.

Canola stocks are forecast to rise but remain relatively low compared with previous years at around 3.5 million tonnes.

The forecast for higher stocks of sunflower seed in the European Union and the Black Sea region are expected to lead to a 36 per cent rise in world sunflower seed stocks to 2 million tonnes.

AustraliaAustralian canola production is forecast to decline by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to around 3.3 million tonnes. Production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 39 per cent to 900 000 tonnes and in Victoria by 33 per cent to 521 000 tonnes. In both states, forecast falls in production are largely due to estimated falls in the area planted to canola in response to dry conditions during the planting window. By contrast, canola production is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in Western Australia to around 1.46 million tonnes and by 6 per cent in South Australia to a record 429 000 tonnes.

45

Oilseeds


In Western Australia, the area planted to canola is estimated to have risen by 3 per cent and the average yield is expected to remain largely unchanged from the previous season. In South Australia, the area planted to canola is estimated to have fallen but the average yield is expected to rise significantly due to favourable seasonal conditions.

The forecast fall in domestic production of canola is expected to result in exports falling by 27 per cent in 2013–14 to around 2.6 million tonnes. The value of canola exports is forecast to fall by 33 per cent to around $1.4 million, reflecting the expected fall in the volume of canola exports and a forecast fall in canola export prices.

In 2012–13 soybean production in Australia was around 92 000 tonnes, around 7 per cent higher than the previous year. Most soybean production in Australia is consumed domestically. In 2013–14 Australian soybean production is forecast to fall to around 70 000 tonnes.

Australian demand for soybean meal is greater than domestic supply; imports increased from 374 000 tonnes in 2002–03 to a record 637 000 tonnes in 2012–13. Soybean meal is primarily imported for use as livestock feed and is mostly sourced from Argentina and the United States. Imports of soybean meal are expected to increase further in 2013–14, given the forecast decline in domestic soybean production.

Soybean meal imports, Australia

Other

United StatesArgentina

Brazil

’000tonnes 2012

–132010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

46

Oilseeds


Oilseeds outlookOilseeds outlookOilseedsoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeWorldWorldProduction Mt 445 469 487 3.8ProductionConsumption Mt 464 464 477 2 8Consumption Mt 464 464 477 2.8oilseed meal Mt 258 265 271 2 3– oilseed meal Mt 258 265 271 2.3

bl il– vegetable oil Mt 152 157 164 4.5gExports Mt 111 112 119 6 3Exports Mt 111 112 119 6.3Closing stocks Mt 66 70 81 15 7Closing stocks Mt 66 70 81 15.7St k t ti % 14 15 17 13 3Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 15 17 13.3Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 506 597 510 – 14.6Soybeans indicator price a $/Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 628 520 – 17.2Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 628 520 – 17.2

A t liAustraliaTotal production kt 5 289 5 634 4 862 – 13.7Total production kt 5 289 5 634 4 862 13.7– winter kt 3 440 4 069 3 325 – 18.3– winter kt 3 440 4 069 3 325 18.3– summer kt 1 849 1 565 1 537 – 1 8– summer kt 1 849 1 565 1 537 – 1.8

CanolaProduction kt 3 427 4 056 3 310 – 18.4Production kt 3 427 4 056 3 310 18.4Exports c kt 2 323 3 488 2 562 – 26 5Exports c kt 2 323 3 488 2 562 – 26.5value $m 1 344 2 094 1 412 32 6– value $m 1 344 2 094 1 412 – 32.6

Price c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 521 560 525 – 6.3 (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 521 560 525 6.3

a Soybeans, US fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture







Lower sugar prices in 2013–14The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to average US16 cents a pound in 2013–14 (October to September), down from around US18 cents a pound in 2012–13. The forecast lower average price for 2013–14 reflects the expectation that world sugar production will exceed consumption for the fourth consecutive year, lifting world sugar stocks-to-use ratio to a level last reached in 2007–08. The forecast price, if realised, will still be above the average of US14.5 cents a pound (in 2013–14 dollars) over the 10 years to 2011–12.

Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 11 September 2013)

USc/lbSep2013

Apr2013

Sep2012

Apr2012

Sep2011

Apr2011

Sep2010

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

48

Sugar


World sugar indicators

Production

Consumption

Mt2013–14USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

6

12

18

24

30

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

World sugar production lower in 2013–14World sugar production is forecast to be 181.1 million tonnes in 2013–14, 1.8 million tonnes less than the record harvest of 2012–13. Forecast higher sugar production in Brazil and Thailand is expected to be more than offset by lower sugar production in Europe, Mexico and the United States.

Change in world sugar production

2013–14f

2012–13

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

United States

Thailand

Mexico

India

European Union

Eastern Europe

China

Brazil

Australia

–2

2

0

4

6

8

10

In Brazil, sugar production is forecast to increase to a record 41.5 million tonnes in 2013–14 (October to September), 2.1 per cent more than the harvest of 2012–13. The forecast increase reflects a further rise in the sugar cane area harvested in response to favourable world sugar and ethanol prices and a return to more normal seasonal conditions after excessive rainfall in 2012–13. Sugar cane production in Brazil is forecast to reach a record 652 million tonnes in 2013–14, 11 per cent higher than in 2012–13.

49

Sugar


Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil

Cane production

Sugar production

Mt %

Sugar share (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

The proportion of sugar cane used to produce ethanol in Brazil is forecast to be 55 per cent in 2013–14, compared with 50 per cent in 2012–13. The forecast higher cane allocation to ethanol production reflects, in part, the effect of an increase in Brazil’s mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with gasoline by 5 percentage points to 25 per cent, effective from 1 May 2013. Another factor supporting this forecast is an expected decline in the price ratio of sugar to ethanol. In recent months this ratio in Brazil has declined to levels last seen in late 2008.

Brazil domestic prices, monthly

US$/L US$/50kg

Sugar (right axis)Hydrous ethanolAnhydrous ethanol

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

10

20

30

40

50

Jul2013

Jan2013

Jul2012

Jan2012

Jul2011

Jan2011

Jul2010

Jan2010

Jul2009

Jan2009

50

Sugar


Sugar production in China is forecast to be largely unchanged at 14.2 million tonnes in 2013–14. This reflects a 5 per cent increase in average sugar yields, largely offsetting the adverse effect of an estimated 3.5 per cent fall in cane area harvested. Chinese farmers responded to lower world sugar prices by moving away from sugar cane cultivation to alternative crops.

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 10.7 million tonnes. While cane area harvested is estimated to remain largely unchanged at 1.4 million hectares, sugar yields are assumed to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14.

In India, sugar production is forecast to be 25 million tonnes in 2013–14, down from 26.5 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast decline is based on an estimated 3 per cent reduction in cane area harvested, which is partially offset by forecast higher average sugar yields. Cane and sugar yield potentials have been boosted by a favourable 2013 monsoon season, which has so far delivered rainfall around 14 per cent above the long period average.

Sugar production in the United States is forecast to decline by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.7 million tonnes, mainly due to forecast lower yields and reductions in both sugar cane area harvested and beet plantings. Lower sugar beet plantings were due mainly to unusually wet and cold seasonal conditions at the time of planting.

Mexican sugar production is forecast to be 6.4 million tonnes in 2013–14, compared with a record 7.4 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast decline reflects a reduction in sugar cane area harvested in response to lower returns to cane growers and expected lower yields due to dry weather.

In the European Union, sugar production is forecast to be 17.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, compared with 17.6 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast largely reflects a 3 per cent decline in estimated sugar beet plantings.

In Eastern Europe, sugar beet production is forecast to decline by 16 per cent to 7.6 million tonnes in response to lower sugar prices and a return to more normal seasonal conditions after two years of bumper yields. Sugar production in the Russian Federation is forecast to decline by 16 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes, while sugar production in the Ukraine is forecast to be 1.9 million tonnes, 22 per cent lower than in 2012–13.

World sugar consumption higher in 2013–14World sugar consumption is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2013–14 to 176.3 million tonnes. This reflects the combined effects of lower sugar prices and assumed growth in world population and incomes, particularly in China, India and Brazil. The forecast consumption growth, if realised, will be slightly below the average of 2.2 per cent a year over the decade to 2011–12. Growth in world sugar consumption is facing competition from increasing use of high intensity sweeteners (both artificial and natural).

51

Sugar


Alternative sweeteners to sugarAlternative sweeteners are mainly high fructose corn syrup, a derivative of corn, and the so-called high intensity sweeteners. High fructose corn syrup is particularly suited to use in soft drinks. Until recently, the high intensity sweeteners have mainly been artificially synthesised compounds, such as acesulfame-k, aspartame, cyclamate, neotame and sucralose. In recent years some more natural high intensity sweeteners derived from plants have emerged in the marketplace, mainly from the stevia and monk fruit (luo han guo) plants. Polyols are sweeteners with reduced calorific value that are derived from corn and sugar. Unlike high intensity sweeteners, polyols (such as sorbitol, mannitol, lactitol, maltitol, isomalt and xylitol) can also be used as bulking agents and to improve the texture of foods and beverages.

While sugar consumption has grown steadily over the past 20 years, alternative sweeteners have made substantial inroads into sugar’s share of the world sweeteners market. A key driver of this is that alternative sweeteners deliver equivalent sweetness at lower cost than sugar. Another driver for high intensity sweeteners is that they are low in calorific value (sometimes almost zero), unlike sugar and high fructose corn syrup, and therefore useful in weight control diets.

Shares of world sweetener consumption (white sugar equivalent), by sweetener type

PolyolsHigh fructosecorn syrup

High intensitysweetenersSugar

%

20

40

60

80

100

Source: International Sugar Organisation; F.O. Licht

20122010200519951985

The market share of high fructose corn syrup peaked at 8.2 per cent around 2000, but had declined to 6.8 per cent by 2012. The United States is the main producer of high fructose corn syrup, accounting for nearly 80 per cent of world exports in the three years to 2012.

US prices for high fructose corn syrup generally reflected movements in US corn prices until 2009–10, but since then have declined, in contrast to rising US corn prices. US production of high fructose corn syrup was 8.29 million tonnes in 2011–12, down marginally from the record 8.6 million tonnes in 2000–01.

continued...

52

Sugar


Alternative sweeteners to sugar continued

High fructose corn syrup, sugar and corn prices

2013–14USc/lb US$/t

Corn indicator(right axis)

HFCS bUS sugar a

10

20

30

40

50

70

140

210

280

350

a Raw sugar price, duty paid, New York. b Spot price, high fructose corn syrup-42, dry weight, Mid West markets.

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

The estimated share of the high intensity sweeteners (artificial and natural) in the total sweeteners market (in sugar equivalent terms) has increased from 6.8 per cent in 1985 to 9.6 per cent in 2011. The stevia share was around 0.4 per cent in 2011 but has grown in response to regulatory approval in an increasing number of countries.

Stevia is the common name for a native South American plant. The steviol glycosides responsible for sweetness are mainly contained in the leaves and have almost zero calorific value. Stevia is mainly grown in China, but Argentina, Paraguay, Thailand, Kenya and the United States are also producers.

Stevia is typically used in food and beverages to reduce sugar content, rather than completely replace sugar, because sugar is needed to mask the bitter aftertaste of stevia sweeteners.

Stevia-based sweeteners were first commercialised in Japan in 1971 but faced regulatory hurdles in other countries. They have been approved as a dietary supplement in the United States for many years but approval for use in all foods did not occur until 2008. Other countries with unrestricted approval are Australia, China, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, Israel, the Russian Federation as well as the European Union (from December 2011).

Approval for use of sweeteners derived from monk fruit in food and beverages in the United States occurred in early 2010.

53

Sugar


World sugar trade to grow in 2013–14World sugar exports are forecast to be 57.1 million tonnes in 2013–14, 2.5 per cent more than in 2012–13. The forecast increase is driven by larger sugar supplies available for export in Brazil and Thailand and higher import demand for sugar from the European Union, United States and India.

Based on forecast higher sugar production, Brazilian sugar exports are expected to reach 27.5 million tonnes in 2013–14, up marginally from 27 million tonnes in 2012–13.

Sugar exports in Thailand are forecast to increase to a record 7.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, 24 per cent more than in 2012–13.

In the United States, sugar imports are forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.2 million tonnes, reflecting forecast lower domestic production. This is despite the expectation that the US tariff quota for raw sugar in 2013–14 will be set at its minimum level allowable under World Trade Organization obligations. US domestic sugar prices have declined to levels close to the loan rate under the US farm program at which sugar could be forfeited to the Commodity Credit Corporation. This is due to increased sugar imports from Mexico to the United States (which are unrestricted and tariff-free under the North America Free Trade Agreement) and lower world sugar prices. To support domestic prices, the US Government has exercised various arrangements to limit sugar imports under other trade agreements.

Indonesian sugar imports are forecast to decrease to 3.1 million tonnes in 2013–14, 12 per cent lower than in 2012–13, reflecting a forecast 4 per cent rise in domestic sugar production to 2.9 million tonnes.

Sugar imports into the European Union are forecast to be 4.7 million tonnes in 2013–14, 9 per cent greater than in 2012–13. The forecast increase reflects lower production and higher domestic use.

Sugar imports by the Russian Federation are forecast to increase to 1.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, 0.8 million tonnes higher than in 2012–13 due to lower domestic production.

Changes in world sugar exports, by country

2013–14f

2012–13

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

worldother

Thailand Mexico

India European

Union

Brazil Australia

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

54

Sugar


Record world sugar stocks in 2013–14World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to increase by 4.8 million tonnes in 2013–14 to a record 78.8 million tonnes. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to increase by 4.2 percentage points in 2013–14 to 45 per cent, which is above the average of 40 per cent for the 10 years to 2011–12.

World stocks-to-use ratio

%

10

20

30

40

50

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Australian sugar production slightly lower in 2013–14Australian sugar production is forecast to be 4.25 million tonnes in 2013–14, down slightly from 4.3 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast decline reflects flood damage to new plantings in early 2013 and lower average sugar yields, due in part to canopy syndrome disease in the Bundaberg and Isis regions.

The average return to Australian cane growers is forecast to decline by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to around $34 a tonne of sugar cane. The forecast decline in returns to growers reflects forecast lower world sugar prices in 2013–14, with its effect only partially offset by an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The forecast return, if realised, will be the lowest since 2007–08.

Queensland Sugar Limited, the marketer of more than 90 per cent of Australia’s raw sugar exports, forecasts its gross harvest pool return in 2013–14 to be $386 a tonne International Polarity Scale, down from $429 in 2012–13. However, Queensland Sugar Limited notes that the final harvest pool return depends on future movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at 2.9 million tonnes. However, the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to decline to $1.27 billion in 2013–14, compared with $1.4 billion in 2012–13.

55

Sugar


Sugar outlookSugar outlookSugaroutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

W ldWorld a Production Mt 174.3 182.9 181.1 – 1.0Production– Brazil Mt 36.9 40.6 41.5 2.2 Brazil Mt 36.9 40.6 41.5 2.2Consumption Mt 168 0 172 7 176 3 2 1Consumption Mt 168.0 172.7 176.3 2.1Exports Mt 54 3 55 7 57 1 2 5Exports Mt 54.3 55.7 57.1 2.5Cl i t k Mt 63 8 74 0 78 8 6 5Closing stocks Mt 63.8 74.0 78.8 6.5Change in stocks Mt 5.4 10.2 4.8 – 52.9gStocks‐to‐use ratio % 38 43 45 4.2Stocks to use ratio % 38 43 45 4.2Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 16.0 – 11.1Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 16.0 – 11.1

Australia bArea ’000 ha 370 380 388 2.1Area 000 ha 370 380 388 .Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 250 – 1.2Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 250 1.2Exports kt 2 572 2 996 2 999 0 1Exports kt 2 572 2 996 2 999 0.1

al e A$ 1 556 1 403 1 267 9 7– value A$m 1 556 1 403 1 267 – 9.7a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization

a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization





Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers

Production

Exports

kt2013–14$/t

Return to cane growers(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000


Marginal rise in world cotton prices in 2013–14The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to average US90 cents a pound in 2013–14, marginally higher than the average of around US88 cents a pound in 2012–13. This forecast is made under the assumption that China will continue increasing its national cotton reserve during the remainder of 2013–14. It is mainly doing this by purchasing domestically produced cotton at minimum prices that are set well above world prices. Under this policy, China’s cotton stocks will in effect be insulated from the world cotton market. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world as a whole is forecast to rise to a record in 2013–14. However, if China is excluded the ratio would be the lowest since 2009–10.

By the end of 2013–14 China is expected to be holding around 62 per cent of world cotton stocks. China’s cotton stock management policies will be an important influence on world cotton prices in 2013–14. If China were to stop purchasing cotton for stock building or to draw down its cotton stocks, world cotton prices could be significantly lower than currently forecast. China’s policy of maintaining domestic cotton prices above world prices has adversely affected the export competitiveness of its cotton processing industry.

Monthly cotton prices

yuan/t

5000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000 Chinese Government minimum purchase price

Cotlook ‘A’ Index

Jul2013

Mar2013

Nov2012

Jul2012

Mar2012

Nov2011

Jul2011

Mar2011

Nov2010

Jun2010

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

57

Cotton


World cotton indicators

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Production

Consumption

Mt2013–14USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

Lower world cotton production in 2013–14World cotton production is forecast to decline to 25.3 million tonnes in 2013–14 and will, as a result, be 4 per cent lower than in 2012–13. This reflects an estimated 2 per cent fall in world cotton plantings in response to more favourable prices for alternative crops in most major producing countries and unusually dry seasonal conditions in the United States. Lower cotton production forecasts for China and the United States are expected to more than offset production increases in India and Brazil.

Changes in world cotton production, by country

2013–14f

2012–13

Mt

world

other

Turkey

Australia

Uzbekistan

Brazil

Pakistan

United States

India

China

f ABARES forecast.

–1.0

–0.8

–0.6

–0.4

–0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

58

Cotton


Cotton production in the United States is forecast to decline to 2.8 million tonnes in 2013–14 (25 per cent lower than in 2012–13) due to a 17 per cent decline in plantings and an expected high abandonment rate. Estimated US cotton plantings in 2013–14 are at the lowest level in four years, due mainly to poor soil moisture conditions, particularly in the dryland cotton growing areas of the southwest and mid-south regions.

Cotton area and lint yield in the United States

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha kg/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast. Note: Lint yield is o� planted area.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Cotton production in China is forecast to decrease by around 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.2 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 4 per cent reduction in cotton plantings which more than offsets the effects of a forecast small increase in average lint yields. While the Chinese Government maintains a minimum price to Chinese cotton growers (equivalent to around US$1.50 a pound), rising labour costs are reducing the profitability of cotton production, relative to other crops in China. The minimum government purchasing price for cotton in 2013–14 is expected to be maintained at the 2012–13 level (RMB20 400 a tonnes for Grade 328 cotton).

Cotton production in India is forecast to be 6.1 million tonnes in 2013–14, around 6 per cent greater than in 2012–13. This forecast reflects a 2 per cent increase in cotton planting and an assumed 4 per cent rise in average lint yields. The 2013 monsoon rains arrived on time and the cumulative seasonal rainfall to date is 11 per cent above the long period average. India is an important world cotton producer and consumer, second to China in production and the United States in exports (see box).

59

Cotton


Indian cotton industryIn the five years to 2012–13 India accounted for 22 per cent of world cotton production and 17 per cent of world cotton exports.

Cotton contributes significantly to India’s economy through providing employment and generating export earnings. The cotton sector employs around 6 million farmers and up to 50 million people involved in processing and trade. Cotton accounts for around 75 per cent of Indian mill consumption of textile fibres. The textile industry provides 14 per cent of the value of industrial production, 4 per cent of the gross domestic product and 17 per cent of export earnings. In 2011–12 the Indian textile industry generated export earnings of US$26.8 billion.

Improved agronomic techniques, the 2002 introduction of hybrid and genetically modified cotton varieties and the 2005–06 introduction of cotton varieties genetically modified to be resistant to insects have led to sharp increases in Indian cotton production. In 2011–12 genetically modified cotton varieties accounted for 92 per cent of total cotton plantings in India. Cotton production in India in the five years to 2011–12 was 66 per cent higher than in the five years to 2004–05.

Cotton indicators, India

Exports

Consumption

Production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

1989–90

Each year the Indian Government sets minimum support prices for its cotton growers for the various quality types of seed cotton (kapas), taking into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions. Minimum support prices are maintained through purchases of kapas at auction by the Cotton Corporation of India, a statutory government organisation.

In 2008–09 when world cotton prices declined sharply to around US61 cents a pound due to the global financial crisis the Cotton Corporation of India purchased around 31 per cent of domestic cotton production. However, when world cotton prices recovered in 2009–10 it disposed of 1.3 million tonnes of accumulated cotton stocks to the domestic market.

continued...

60

Cotton


Indian cotton industry continued

Indian domestic cotton prices

Indianrupee/kg

Lint priceAverage kapas (seed cotton) price

Minimum support price

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

1996–97

Operations of the Cotton Corporation of India

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Purchases

Domestic sales

Export sales

Mt

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

The Indian Government controls raw cotton exports in order to keep cotton prices low for its domestic textile industry. For example, in 2010–11 it restricted cotton exports to only 1.1 million tonnes, compared with 1.4 million tonnes the previous year, despite higher domestic cotton production. India exported a record 2.4 million tonnes of raw cotton in 2011–12, exceeding the government-set target for the year. As a result the government imposed a two-month ban on cotton exports.

61

Cotton


Modest growth in world cotton consumption in 2013–14World cotton consumption is forecast to be 23.9 million tonnes in 2013–14, 2 per cent larger than in 2012–13. The forecast increase is based on assumed strong economic growth in developing countries, in particular India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Nevertheless, world cotton consumption growth is constrained by relatively higher prices, particularly in China where minimum support prices to cotton growers are much higher than world cotton prices. Cotton consumption in China is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at 7.8 million tonnes. Cotton is losing share to polyester in world fibre markets as the gap between cotton and polyester prices widens in 2013 after narrowing throughout most of 2012.

World weekly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ indicator

Polyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5 Sep2013

30 May2013

31 Jan2013

27 Sep2012

31 May2012

26 Jan2012

29 Sep2011

Record world cotton stocks in 2013–14With world cotton production forecast to exceed world consumption for the fourth year in a row, world closing stocks of cotton are forecast to increase to a record 20.4 million tonnes in 2013–14; around 9 per cent more than in 2012–13. Much of the increase in world stocks is expected to occur in China, under the assumption of continuing stock building.

China purchased 6.6 million tonnes of cotton in 2012–13 from its domestic crop and added to the national reserve. China is forecast to accumulate 62 per cent of world cotton stocks by the end of 2013–14 lifting its stocks-to-use ratio to a record 162 per cent.

However, while the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to reach a record 85.4 per cent by the end of 2013–14, the ratio for the world—excluding China—is expected to decline to 48 per cent, its lowest level in four years.

62

Cotton


Stocks-to-use ratios for cotton

%

China

World

World excluding China

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

1997–98

f ABARES forecast.

World trade lower in 2013–14World cotton exports are forecast to decline by around 18 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.4 million tonnes. This forecast decrease reflects expected lower import demand for cotton by China, increases in domestic use in most major producing countries and forecast lower cotton production for the United States.

In 2013–14 China’s cotton imports are forecast to decline by 45 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes as rebuilding of China’s strategic reserve slows. This is in excess of China’s tariff import quota of 894 000 tonnes of cotton under its World Trade Organization obligations (subject to a 1 per cent tariff). The forecast of China’s cotton imports in 2013–14, if realised, will be less than half the record imports in 2011–12 and the lowest in four years.

Cotton exports by the United States—the world’s largest exporter—are forecast to be 2.3 million tonnes in 2013–14 compared with 2.9 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast decline reflects an expected lower domestic cotton production. If realised, this would be the lowest export level of raw cotton in 13 years.

In 2013–14 lower cotton exports are also forecast for India (down 18 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes), Australia (down 24 per cent to 992 000 tonnes) and Brazil (down 14 per cent to 566 000 tonnes).

Australian cotton production slightly lower in 2013–14Australian cotton production is forecast to be 990 000 tonnes in 2013–14; only 1.2 per cent lower than the 1 million tonnes harvested in 2012–13. The forecast reflects favourable cotton prices in Australian dollars and plentiful supplies of irrigation water in almost all Australian cotton growing regions. At 12 September 2013 the public irrigation dams were around 72 per cent of capacity compared with an average of 40 per cent at the same time over the 10 years to 2011.

63

Cotton


Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 12 September 2013

%

20

New South Wales Queensland

40

60

80

100

120

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

othe

r

othe

r

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

20122013

Average of the 10 yearsto 2011

Forecast gross margins for dryland crop production alternatives in the summer rainfall regions of Australia in 2013–14 favour increased dryland cotton production at the expense of grain sorghum production. Based on existing soil moisture conditions in the cotton growing regions, dryland cotton plantings are forecast to recover to 40 000 hectares in 2013–14 compared with 23 000 hectares in 2012–13.

Recovery in Australian cotton pricesThe average return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to be $523 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs) in 2013–14 compared with $474 a bale received in 2012–13. The forecast higher return reflects the forecast higher world cotton prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The forecast return is only slightly lower than the average of the 10 years to 2011–12 of $545 a bale in real terms.

Australian cotton exports lower in 2013–14Australian cotton exports are forecast to be 992 000 tonnes in 2013–14 compared with last year’s record of 1.3 million tonnes. This forecast decrease reflects a reduction in cotton supplies available for export due to lower production in 2013–14. Almost all Australian cotton production is exported and the typical March to June harvest means Australian cotton production in one financial year is exported over two financial years. Based on production forecasts for major world cotton exporting countries in 2013–14 Australia would maintain its position as the world’s third largest cotton exporter, behind the United States and India.

64

Cotton


Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

Production

Exports

kt2013–14$/bale

Gin gate return a (right axis)

a value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1000

300

600

900

1200

1500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

1997–98

1995–96

Cotton outlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

WorldP d ti Mt 27 2 26 4 25 3 4 2World aProduction Mt 27.2 26.4 25.3 – 4.2Consumption Mt 22.5 23.4 23.9 2.1Consumption Exports Mt 10.0 10.2 8.4 – 17.6Exports Mt 10.0 10.2 8.4 17.6Closing stocks Mt 15 6 18 8 20 4 8 5Closing stocks Mt 15.6 18.8 20.4 8.5Stocks to use ratio % 69 4 80 4 85 4 6 2Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 69.4 80.4 85.4 6.2C tl k ‘A’ i d US /lb 100 1 87 9 90 0 2 4Cotlook ‘A’ index USc/lb 100.1 87.9 90.0 2.4

Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 434 – 1 8Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 434 – 1.8Lint production kt 1 198 1 002 990 1 2Lint production kt 1 198 1 002 990 – 1.2E t k 994 1 306 992 24 0Exports kt 994 1 306 992 – 24.0p– value A$m 2 736 2 693 2 263 – 16.0 value $ 36 693 63 6 0a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

‘‘


• Wine grape production is estimated at 1.69 million tonnes in 2012–13, 7 per cent higher than in 2011–12.

• Wine grape production is projected to increase by 2 per cent to 1.73 million tonnes in 2013–14 and to remain largely unchanged in the two years to 2014–15.

• Assuming favourable seasonal conditions, wine grape production in the cool climate zones is expected to increase by 4 per cent, while production in the warm climate zones is expected to increase only slightly out to 2014–15.

SummaryThis report provides estimates of wine grape production for the 2011–12 vintage and production projections for 2012–13, 2013–14 and 2014–15. The estimates cover 10 premium specialist wine grape varieties in each of Australia’s wine grape producing zones based on 2011–12 ABS vineyards survey. These premium varieties account for about 85 per cent of total wine grape production in Australia. The ABS vineyards survey was again the sole source of vine bearing area data used as the basis of ABARES production projections.

Wine grape production in 2011–12In 2011–12, Australian producers harvested 1.58 million tonnes of grapes for winemaking, an increase of around 1 per cent from the 2010–11 harvest of 1.56 million tonnes. The largest increases were in the Limestone Coast geographical indication (GI) zone (31 per cent), the Lower Murray zone (18 per cent), the North East Victoria zone (13 per cent) and the Murray–Darling – Swan Hill zone (11 per cent). Those increases were offset by decreases in other GI zones that could generally be attributed to high rainfall.

Persistent rainfall in the eastern states that began in late January required growers to be vigilant in their canopy management regimes to control outbreaks of disease. Because seasonal temperatures were relatively mild and crops lighter, harvest in many eastern zones began earlier than usual. This proved fortuitous in zones where

Wine grape production projections to 2014–15Caroline Gunning-Trant and Walter Shafron

66

Wine and wine grapes


harvesting began before heavy rain fell across New South Wales and north-east Victoria in late February and early March. In zones that had either not finished harvesting or had just begun, persistent summer rainfall resulted in some crop losses and downgrading of fruit. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), an estimated 3842 hectares of vines were removed or grafted during 2011–12, which further contributed to the fall in production in those zones.

The effect of heavy late summer rains was highly variable. Some vineyards in GI zones such as those in the Hunter Valley and Central Ranges sustained significant damage. This caused some growers to abandon their crop, particularly those growing shiraz. In the Central Victoria, Gippsland and Port Phillip zones, the quality of grapes was affected; with reports of berries splitting and outbreaks of botrytis in varieties like chardonnay, pinot noir and cabernet sauvignon.

For most GI zones in eastern Australia, average wine grape yields were below the five-year average to 2010 (the last year the ABS released variety-specific data). The wet and humid conditions of 2011 resulted in a lower fruit set in some zones for the 2012 crop. As a result, vines in 2012 generally had fewer grape bunches with smaller berries. Despite the lighter crop, the quality of the 2012 vintage was better than that of 2011.

In 2011–12 total bearing area fell 4 per cent relative to 2010–11, to 145 382 hectares. The total non-bearing area was 34 per cent lower in 2011–12 compared with 2010–11, at 3117 hectares. This meant a significant area of wine grape vines came into full bearing in 2011–12. More than half of the total decrease in non-bearing area between 2010–11 and 2011–12 can be attributed to the Murray–Darling – Swan Hill zone (466 hectares) and the Big Rivers zone (387 hectares).

Permanent removal of vines from production also explains some reduction in non-bearing area. The area of grapes removed from production (by removing, grafting off or abandoning to die) before the 2011–12 harvest was 3842 hectares, 34 per cent lower than the area removed from production in 2010–11 (5819 hectares).

Wine grape production in 2012–13Seasonal conditions preceding the 2013 vintage were better than the previous two years across the country. Conditions were generally hot and dry with a few notable rain events. A heatwave in January in South Australia and the eastern states did not significantly affect yields because of the good soil moisture profile stemming from the 2012 winter rains. At the same time, heavy coastal rainfall in southern Queensland and the north coast of New South Wales was early enough in the season to not have any significant effect on yields (WGGA 2013).

Late summer rain in the Hunter, Mudgee and Orange GI regions did not affect yields of white wine grape varieties as they had largely been harvested. The rain helped slow sugar development in red wine grapes, which had been accelerated by hot and dry seasonal conditions (WGGA 2013).

Wine grape production is estimated at 1.69 million tonnes in 2012–13, 7 per cent higher than in 2011–12. This reflects an estimated 1 per cent increase in bearing area of wine grapes in 2012–13 (except multipurpose grapes for drying and table use), to 146 253 hectares. The quality of the red and white wine grape crop in 2012–13 was generally good.

67



Production of most major commercial varieties is estimated to have been higher in 2012–13 than in 2011–12. Pinot noir and muscat gordo blanco experienced the largest increase in percentage terms; production rose by 16 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. By contrast, semillon fell by 6 per cent and riesling by 5 per cent.

For the leading commercial white wine grape varieties, production of chardonnay is estimated to have increased an estimated 6 per cent in 2012–13, sauvignon blanc rose by an estimated 10 per cent, while semillon is estimated to have declined by 6 per cent. For the red wine grapes, production of shiraz accounts for more than 47 per cent of all red varieties and is estimated 12 per cent higher in 2012–13 than in 2011–12. Production of cabernet sauvignon and merlot increased by an estimated 12 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, in 2012–13 compared with 2011–12.

Projected wine grape production in 2013–14 and 2014–15Wine grape production is projected to increase by 2 per cent to 1.73 million tonnes in 2013–14 and to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15. This forecast is primarily based on the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions (that is, without the occurrence of a severe weather event), good fruit set stemming from the 2012–13 season, a return of yields to their long-term average and a small increase in bearing areas. The national bearing area in 2013–14 is forecast to be around 147 356 hectares and to increase slightly in 2014–15 to 148 286 hectares.

The bearing area for red wine grapes is usually larger than for white wine grapes and this is projected to remain the case to 2014–15. In the five years to 2011–12 (excluding 2010–11 for which no detailed varietal data was collected by the ABS), an average of 61 per cent of Australia’s total bearing area was planted to red wine grape varieties. Over the same period, yields of red wine grapes averaged around 25 per cent lower than for white wine grapes. Assuming the proportion of bearing area for red wine grapes remains steady, the area planted to red wine grapes in 2014–15 is projected to be about 91 000 hectares and production projected at around 927 800 tonnes.

Australian wine grape production, by category

MultipurposeWhiteRed

kt

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2014–15z

2012–13s

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

s ABARES estimate. z ABARES projection. Note: Multipurpose grapes have not been reported separately from red and white grapes since 2008–09. 2010–11 is an ABARES estimate as the ABS did not collect detailed varietal data for that period.Source: ABS 2013; ABS 2011

68



For the leading commercial white wine grape varieties —chardonnay, sauvignon blanc and semillon—production in 2013–14 and 2014–15 is projected to remain steady. For the leading red wine grape varieties, production of shiraz is projected to rise by 9 per cent in 2013–14 as yields return to longer-term averages and to remain relatively unchanged in 2014–15. Production of cabernet sauvignon and merlot is projected to remain relatively steady in the two years to 2014–15, assuming favourable seasonal conditions.

Australian production of top three white varieties

kt

ChardonnaySauvignon blanc Semillon

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15z

2012–13s

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

s ABARES estimate. z ABARES projection. Note: 2010–11 is an ABARES estimate as the ABS did not collect detailed varietal data for that period.Source: ABS 2013; ABS 2011

Australian production of top three red varieties

kt

Shiraz Cabernet sauvignonMerlot

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15z

2012–13s

2010–11

2008–09

Note: 2010–11 is an ABARES estimate as the ABS did not collect detailed varietal data for that period.Source: ABS 2013; ABS 2011

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

s ABARES estimate. z ABARES projection.

69



Estimated and projected wine grape production in Australia, by zone

Estimated2011–12 2012–13s 2013–14z 2014–15z

kt kt kt kt

Barossa 74 82 90 90Mt Lofty Ranges 51 63 67 67

Projected production

EstimatedandprojectedwinegrapeproductioninAustralia,byzone

South Australia

Mt Lofty Ranges 51 63 67 67Fleurieu 99 111 114 113Limestone Coast 107 121 120 120Lower Murray a 436 437 431 430Far North and The Peninsulas 1 1 1 1

Total 769 815 822 821

Hunter Valley 11 13 15 15Big Rivers (excl. Murray–Darling) a 249 284 301 303

New South Wales and ACT

Central Ranges 20 29 31 31North and West New South Wales 0 1 1 1Southern New South Wales 7 9 10 10South Coast 2 2 2 2ACT 0 0 0 0

Total 289 340 360 362

Central 25 29 31 31North East 19 22 23 23

Victoria

North East 19 22 23 23Gippsland and Port Phillip 19 22 24 24North West and Western Victoria 7 8 9 9

Total 69 81 86 87

South West Australia 61 60 61 61Greater Perth and other WA 7 7 7 7

Total 68 67 68 68

Murray–Darling – Swan Hill a 380 382 379 379

Western Australia

Murray Darling Swan Hill a 380 38 379 379Tasmania 5 7 8 8Queensland 1 1 2 2

Australia 1582 1695 1725 1727aWarm climate zone. s Estimate. z Projection.

70



Estimated and projected wine grape bearing areas in Australia, by zone

Estimated area2011–12 2012–13s 2013–14z 2014–15z

ha ha ha ha

Barossa 12 342 12 585 12 833 12 976Mt Lofty Ranges 8 625 8 664 8 750 8 825

EstimatedandprojectedwinegrapebearingareainAustralia,byzoneProjected area

South Australia

y gFleurieu 13 224 13 254 13 289 13 355Limestone Coast 15 037 15 064 15 086 15 141Lower Murray a 20 495 20 553 20 643 20 732Far North and The Peninsulas 246 246 246 246

Total 69 970 70 366 70 847 71 275

Hunter Valley 2 628 2 638 2 654 2 659Big Rivers (excl. Murray–Darling) a 21 188 21 375 21 487 21 703Central Ran es 5 126 5 139 5 180 5 215

New South Wales and ACT

Central Ranges 5 126 5 139 5 180 5 215North and West New South Wales 288 288 291 294Southern New South Wales 1 507 1 509 1 523 1 534South Coast 359 361 362 362ACT 70 70 70 71

Total 31 166 31 381 31 568 31 838

Central 4 269 4 296 4 336 4 368North East 3 046 3 053 3 069 3 097

Victoria

Gippsland and Port Phillip 4 326 4 344 4 396 4 432North West and Western Victoria 1 702 1 723 1 807 1 818

Total 13 343 13 416 13 608 13 715

South West Australia 9 202 9 311 9 382 9 403Greater Perth and other WA 1 115 1 121 1 132 1 137

Total 10 316 10 433 10 514 10 541

Murray–Darling – Swan Hill a 18 630 18 711 18 839 18 8891 229 1 251 1 276 1 318

Western Australia

Tasmania 1 229 1 251 1 276 1 318Queensland 690 694 705 711

Australia 145 343 146 253 147 356 148 286aWarm climate zone. s Estimate. z Projection.

71



Production in the warm and cool climate zonesWarm climate zones across Australia produce about 60 per cent of the national crop. They are characterised by a greater reliance on irrigation, higher yields and generally lower wine grape prices than cool climate zones. The warm climate zones are the Lower Murray in South Australia, Big Rivers in New South Wales and Murray–Darling – Swan Hill, which covers parts of Victoria and New South Wales. All other Australian zones are regarded as cool climate zones.

In 2012–13 yields across warm climate zones averaged an estimated 18.2 tonnes a hectare, compared with 17.8 tonnes a hectare in 2011–12. This rise can be attributed to improved seasonal conditions in the eastern states, with good canopy coverage protecting fruit from extreme heat, good water availability and adequate soil moisture. Despite improved yields across the warm climate zones, production in the Lower Murray and Murray–Darling – Swan Hill zones rose by less than 1 per cent. A more significant increase was achieved in the Big Rivers zone, where wine grape production in 2012–13 is estimated to have been 14 per cent higher than 2011–12.

In the two years to 2014–15 wine grape production in warm climate zones is expected to increase slightly relative to 2012–13. This projection assumes favourable seasonal conditions and a return of yields to close to the long-term average.

Wine grape production in cool climate zones is estimated to have increased by almost 15 per cent in 2012–13 compared with 2011–12. With seasonal conditions in the eastern states and Western Australia generally warm and dry, average yields are estimated to be about 14 per cent higher.

In the two years to 2014–15 wine grape production in the cool climate zones is expected to increase by 4 per cent relative to 2012–13, assuming favourable seasonal conditions.

ReferencesABS 2013, Australian wine and grape industry, cat. no. 1329.0.55.002 (and previous issues), Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

ABS 2011, Vineyards Australia, cat. no.1329.0.55.002, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

WGGA 2013, ‘Harvest report 2013’, Wine Grape Growers Australia, Adelaide, available at wgga.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Harvest-Report-MAR-2013.pdf (pdf 267kb).


Paper and paperboardKristen Corrie, Kah Low, Mihir Gupta and Bethany Burke

AgricultureLivestock


After falling by 10 per cent in 2012–13, the Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to average 3 per cent higher in 2013–14 at 305 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), reflecting higher prices in southern Australia more than offsetting the effect of lower prices in northern Australia.

Restocker demand in southern Australia is expected to rise as producers seek to increase herds after the high slaughter rates over the past 12 months, placing upward pressure on prices of store cattle. In addition, higher export demand, particularly from emerging markets, is expected to place upward pressure on prices of slaughter cattle in Southern Australia.

Nevertheless, higher average prices in southern Australia are likely to be partially offset by lower average prices in northern Australia, as supply of slaughter cattle remains high and producers continue to destock (see box).

Australian cattle slaughter and weighted average saleyard price

Slaughter

millionhead

2013–14Ac/kg

Saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Beef and vealClay Mifsud and Caitlin Murray

75

Beef and veal


An assumed lower Australian exchange rate is likely to make the two-thirds of Australian beef production that is exported more price competitive in export destinations. Export demand from the United States as well as emerging markets in China, South-East Asia and the Middle East is expected to increase, offsetting lower demand from the largest market, Japan. With the Australian dollar assumed to average lower in 2013–14 compared with 2012–13, returns to exporters, in Australian dollar terms, are expected to rise.

Effect on the cattle market of drought in QueenslandDuring most of 2012–13 and continuing into 2013–14, poor seasonal conditions in Queensland resulted in many producers being forced to offload cattle. As a result of the increased supplies, prices of slaughter age cattle fell.

Around 50 per cent (20 shires) of Queensland’s total land area was drought declared at August 2013.

Rainfall deficiency for Australia, 12 months to 31 August 2013

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Serious de�ciency

Rainfall percentileranking

Severe de�ciency

Lowest on record

The poor seasonal conditions in Queensland contributed to an increase in the number of cattle in feedlots as producers turned to supplementary feeding. The number of Queensland cattle on feed in the June quarter 2013 was 11 per cent higher than the March quarter, increasing to 523 000 head (60 per cent of the national total) of cattle on feed .

Higher cattle slaughter led to beef and veal production in Queensland increasing by 6 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 1.1 million tonnes. As beef production rose, so did beef and veal exports from Queensland; increasing by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 636 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 63 per cent of total Australian beef and veal exports.

continued...

76

Beef and veal


Slaughter and production to riseAustralian cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.7 million head, underpinning an increase in beef and veal production to 2.3 million tonnes. In northern Australia cattle turn-off is expected to remain high as producers continue to destock, after stocking rates increased to their highest in 20 years coming into the 2012–13 season. For the nation as a whole, cattle inventories are expected to fall by 2 per cent to 27.8 million head by June 2014.

In 2012–13 Australian cattle slaughter increased by 7 per cent to around 8.5 million head, the highest in six years. Female cattle slaughter increased by 15 per cent to 3.5 million head and male cattle slaughter increased by 4 per cent to 4.3 million head. Deteriorating seasonal conditions in many cattle producing regions resulted in many producers sending more female cattle to slaughter. This is reflected in a 2 per cent decline in average adult carcass weights to 283 kilograms, over the 12 months to June 2013. Despite the decline in average carcass weights, beef and veal production in 2012–13 increased to a record 2.2 million tonnes.

Emerging markets driving export growthAustralian beef and veal exports are forecast to increase by around 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.07 million tonnes (shipped weight). This reflects increased exports to the emerging markets of China, South-East Asia and the Middle East offsetting lower exports to the largest market, Japan. With the Australian dollar assumed to average lower in 2013–14 than it did in 2012–13, Australian beef and veal is expected to be more price competitive in export markets over the coming year. The value of beef and veal exports is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to around $5.2 billion.

In 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports increased by 7 per cent to a record of a little more than 1 million tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting increased domestic supply and greater demand from China, South-East Asia and the Middle East.

Effect on the cattle market of drought in Queensland continued

Exacerbating the oversupply in drought affected areas of Queensland has been an increase in stocking rates over the past several years. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, beef cattle numbers increased by 77 per cent in central western Queensland and by 33 per cent in south western Queensland in the 10 years before the 2012–13 season.

The drought induced sell-off of Queensland cattle contributed to an increasing price disparity between Queensland and southern Australia, where seasonal conditions were generally more favourable. In the first two months of 2013–14 young cattle prices in Queensland averaged around 12 per cent lower than in New South Wales and Victoria. Similarly, prices of medium cows and heavy steers averaged 19 per cent and 14 per cent lower, respectively, than the southern states.

77

Beef and veal


Australian beef and veal exports

kt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

JapanUnited StatesKorea, Republic ofOther

Lower exports to JapanAustralian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 285 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting increased competition from US beef. Total beef import volumes in Japan are expected to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14, but the proportion of US beef imports is expected to continue rising.

US beef exports to Japan have increased substantially since the Japanese Government’s decision in February 2013 to relax bovine spongiform encephalopathy related import restrictions. As a result, the proportion of US beef production eligible for the Japanese market increasing from less than 50 per cent to more than 90 per cent. Japanese beef imports from the United States can now be sourced from cattle slaughtered at up to 30 months of age; previously a restriction had been in place limiting beef imports from cattle slaughtered at less than 21 months of age. Strong growth in US beef exports to Japan is expected to continue over 2013–14 as the Japanese market offers US exporters favourable returns compared with most other markets.

In 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports to Japan fell by 8 per cent to 299 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Australian beef made up 58 per cent of Japanese beef imports in 2012–13, 6 percentage points lower year-on-year, while the share of US beef increased by 5 percentage points to 29 per cent.

78

Beef and veal


Beef and veal imports, Japan

OtherNew Zealand

United StatesAustralia

kt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Increased exports to United StatesAustralian beef and veal exports to the United States in 2013–14 are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to 230 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Higher exports to the US reflect forecast lower domestic supply of manufacturing beef in the US and an assumed depreciation of the Australian exchange rate.

Production of cow beef—a competing product of Australian lean manufacturing beef—is expected to fall in the United States in 2013–14 resulting in increased demand for imports. Improving seasonal conditions in the United States have resulted in the proportion of pastures rated as being in fair to excellent condition reaching 64 per cent in September 2013, compared with 42 per cent in September 2012. As a result, liquidation of US beef cow herds is expected to slow. In addition, slaughter of dairy cows is expected to fall in 2013–14 because of an expected increase in the milk-to-feed price ratio.

Increased demand for imported manufacturing beef is likely to offer additional incentive for Australian exporters to divert beef to the US market. An assumed lower Australian exchange rate would result in prices to Australian exporters increasing at a faster rate than in US dollar terms. Despite these developments, beef exports to the United States in 2013–14 are not expected to exceed the 10-year average of 267 000 tonnes. The opportunities in new markets for Australian manufacturing beef in Asia and the Middle East is expected to constrain, to some extent, growth in Australian beef exports to the United States.

In 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports to the United States increased by 1 per cent to 207 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Australia was the largest supplier of imported beef to the United States, accounting for around 28 per cent of all imports. New Zealand, Canada and Mexico accounted for 25 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent of US imports in 2012–13, respectively.

79

Beef and veal


Australian beef and veal exports to the United States

Volume

kt2013–14Ac/kg

90 CL import price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

100

200

300

400

500

Exports to the Republic of Korea to riseAustralian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 142 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting reduced supply of US beef in the Korean import market and the lower assumed value of the Australian dollar. Since the Japanese Government eased restrictions on imports of US beef in February 2013, US exports to Japan increased by more than 50 per cent year-on-year and exports to the Republic of Korea decreased. Exports of US beef to the Republic of Korea are expected to be lower again in 2013–14, reflecting more favourable returns to US beef exports in Japan. In addition, the assumed lower Australian dollar is expected to help Australian beef be price competitive in the Korean import market. The tariff differential between Australian and US beef in the Korean market will increase to 8 percentage points on 1 January 2014 in the United States’ favour.

In 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea increased by 12 per cent to 138 000 tonnes (shipped weight) reflecting reduced competition from US beef and the competitive pricing of Australian beef. Australian beef made up 54 per cent of Korean beef imports in 2012–13, 4 percentage points higher year-on-year, while the share of US beef fell 3 percentage points to 35 per cent. Higher prices for US beef in Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong resulted in US exporters sending more beef to those markets instead of the Republic of Korea. Additionally, the landed price of Australian chilled and frozen beef averaged 7 per cent and 15 per cent lower, respectively, than US chilled and frozen beef in 2012–13.

80

Beef and veal


Rising beef prices in China supporting importsIn 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports to China increased to 92 000 tonnes (shipped weight)—85 000 tonnes higher than the previous year—resulting in China becoming Australia’s fourth largest export market. Over the five years to 2012–13 beef prices in China more than doubled as demand outstripped domestic supply, resulting in increased import demand. In Australia, the number of meat processing facilities approved to export to China increased by more than 20, increasing the potential availability of Australian beef for China.

Australian beef and veal exports to China

Volume

kt2013–14$m

Value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Growth in beef and veal exports to China is forecast to moderate in 2013–14 to a year-on-year increase of around 40 per cent to 130 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Growth in domestic beef prices in China has begun to slow after the significant increase in imports from Australia and New Zealand. Australia’s share of Chinese beef imports is expected to rise in 2013–14 as Brazilian beef—previously a key competitor to Australia—remains banned in China because of detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in that country.

Compared with a decade ago, the Chinese market is taking a wider variety of Australian beef cuts, with a higher average value. So far in 2013–14 the top three beef cuts exported to China were shin/shank (with a share of 20 per cent), brisket (18 per cent) and silverside/outside (12 per cent). This compares with 2003–04 when more than two-thirds of beef exports to China were of lower value manufacturing beef.

81

Beef and veal


Rising demand in South-East AsiaIn 2012–13 Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia increased by 5 per cent to a record 94 000 tonnes (shipped weight) as increased exports to the Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore offset lower exports to Indonesia. In pursuit of its self-sufficiency goals, the Indonesian Government imposed lower import quotas for beef during 2012–13, which restricted Australian exports.

In 2013–14 Australian beef exports to South-East Asia are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 100 000 tonnes. Import demand for beef in South-East Asia is expected to rise in 2013–14 as demand for beef rises faster than local production. The Indonesian Government has announced it will disband the import quota system for beef and will move to a reference price mechanism for imports (see box).

Exports to the Middle East risingIn 2012–13 beef and veal exports to the Middle East increased by 52 per cent to a record 48 000 tonnes (shipped weight). This largely reflected increased demand from Saudi Arabia after the Saudi Government banned imports of Brazilian beef given the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in that country. Saudi Arabia accounted for 40 per cent of Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East in 2012–13. In 2013–14 beef and veal exports to the Middle East are forecast to increase by 15 per cent to 55 000 tonnes. At September 2013 no date had been established for re-entry of Brazilian beef into Saudi Arabia.

Beef and veal outlookBeef and veal outlookBeefandvealoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

Cattle numbers a million 28.4 28.0 27.8 – 0.7– beef million 25.7 25.3 25.1 – 0.8 beef million 25.7 25.3 25.1 0.8Slaughterings ’000 7 873 8 457 8 700 2 9Slaughterings 000 7 873 8 457 8 700 2.9Production kt 2 115 2 245 2 300 2 4Production kt 2 115 2 245 2 300 2.4E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)– to United States kt 205 207 230 11.1p ( pp g ) to United States kt 205 207 230 11.1– to Japan kt 326 299 285 – 4.7– to Japan kt 326 299 285 – 4.7to Korea Rep of kt 123 138 142 2 9– to Korea, Rep. of kt 123 138 142 2.9

k– total kt 948 1014 1 070 5.5total– value A$m 4 467 4 864 5 150 5.9 value A$m 4 467 4 864 5 150 5.9Pricesale ard Ac/kg 329 297 305 2 7

Price– saleyard Ac/kg 329 297 305 2.7

/– US import USc/kg 433 438 445 1.6p / g– Japan import USc/kg 600 589 565 – 4.1 Japan import USc/kg 600 589 565 4.1a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry




82

Beef and veal


Live animal exports

Live feeder and slaughter cattle

In 2012–13 feeder and slaughter cattle exports declined by 11 per cent to 513 000 head. The largest decline was in exports to Indonesia, which fell by 109 000 head to 266 000 head, reflecting reduced Indonesian import quota. Shipments to Egypt also declined by 17 000 head following Egyptian concerns over Australian cattle being treated with hormone growth promotants. Exports to Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam and Vietnam partially offset these declines with exports to these markets reaching a total of 95 000 head, 45 000 head more than in 2011–12.

Australian feeder and slaughter cattle exports to Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei Darussalam and Vietnam

Vietnam Brunei Darussalam Philippines Malaysia

’000head

30

60

90

120

150

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Feeder and slaughter cattle exports are forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to around 590 000 head, mainly because of changes to Indonesia’s import policy and continuing demand from other countries in South-East Asia.

Cattle exports to Indonesia are assumed to rise in 2013–14 following removal of the Indonesian import quota in September 2013 and adoption of a reference price mechanism for beef. The Indonesian Government intends to issue permits for cattle and beef imports when the Indonesian beef price for secondary cuts exceeds the reference price of 76 000 rupiah (A$7.60) per kilogram by 15 per cent; imports will be restricted when the price falls to 5 per cent below the reference price. Currently, prices of secondary cuts are around 90 000 rupiah (A$9.00) per kilogram.

The value of cattle exports is forecast to increase by 15 per cent to $389 million in 2013–14, partially assisted by an assumed lower Australian dollar.

Live breeder and dairy cattle

Breeder and dairy cattle exports increased by 16 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 121 000 head. Exports to Asia rose by 13 000 head, while exports to the Middle East rose by 3000 head. China and the Russian Federation were the largest export markets, accounting for 49 per cent and 30 per cent of total exports, respectively.

continued...

83

Beef and veal


Live animal exports continued

Australian breeder and dairy cattle exports

Other

China

Russian Federation

’000head

30

60

90

120

150

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Exports of breeder and dairy cattle are forecast to increase by 7 per cent to 130 000 head in 2013–14, reflecting continuing demand from Asia.

The value of breeder and dairy cattle exports is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $270 million in 2013–14, reflecting the forecast increase in the number of cattle exported.

Live sheep exports

Australian sheep exports fell by 22 per cent to around 2 million head in 2012–13. Exports have declined by 10 per cent a year on average since 2005–06 because of increasing competition in export markets from African and eastern European sheep exports. The decline in 2012–13 was magnified by the loss of the Bahrain export market when trade was suspended in August 2012.

In 2012–13 sheep shipments declined to Bahrain by 325 000 head, to Turkey by 226 000 head and to Kuwait by 208 000 head. Partially offsetting these declines were increased exports to Qatar, which took 138 000 head more than in 2011–12.

Sheep exports to the Middle East accounted for 95 per cent of total exports in 2012–13. Exports to the region have historically been larger in the month preceding Eid-ul-Adha, the festival of sacrifice. In 2013 the festival will be held in October, with large shipments of sheep to the Middle East expected for September.

Australian sheep exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to reach 2.1 million head. Exports to the Middle East are forecast to remain at around 95 per cent of the total volume, with most of the remainder expected to be sent to South-East Asia.

The value of sheep exports for 2013–14 is forecast to rise by 16 per cent to $225 million, largely the result of the expected increase in the volume of exports and higher sheep prices.

continued...

84

Beef and veal


Live animal exports continued

Australian sheep exports, by destination

Kuwait 35%

Qatar 18%

Bahrain 15%

Jordan 14%

Turkey 11%

Israel 3%

Other Middle East 3%

Other 1%

Kuwait 35%

Qatar 29%

Jordan 17%

Other Middle East 7%

Israel 4%

Bahrain 3%

Turkey 3%

Other 2%

2011–12 (2 562 210 head)

2012–13 (1 999 685 head)

Outlook for live cattle and sheep exportsOutlook for live cattle and sheep exportsOutlookforlivecattleandsheepexports

% unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

% changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

lLive cattleVolume live cattleVolume live cattle– Feeder/slaughter ’000 579 513 590 15 0– Feeder/slaughter ’000 579 513 590 15.0B d ’000 105 121 130 7 4– Breeder ’000 105 121 130 7.4l l lValue live cattle

– Feeder/slaughter A$m 412 339 389 14.7 Feeder/slaughter A$m 412 339 389 14.7– Breeder A$m 239 251 270 7 6– Breeder A$m 239 251 270 7.6

Live sheep aVolume live sheep ’000 2 562 2 000 2 100 5.0Live sheep aVolume live sheep 000 2 562 2 000 2 100 5.0Value live sheep A$m 345 194 225 16 0Value live sheep A$m 345 194 225 16.0

Total export value A$m 996 783 884 12.9Total export value $ 996 83 88 9

a Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

continued...

85

Beef and veal


Indonesian beef imports and reference price mechanismThe Indonesian Government is aiming for 90 per cent self-sufficiency in beef production by 2014. This includes plans to reduce cattle and beef imports to 10 per cent of domestic beef consumption, from a peak of 39 per cent in 2010. Since 2010 Indonesia has pursued this goal by limiting imports through trade restrictions that have resulted in significant upward pressure on prices. Indonesian beef prices reached record highs in August 2013 around the Idul Fitri celebrations that mark the end of Ramadan.

Extent of price increases

After Indonesia adopted trade restrictions, beef prices rose by as much as 150 per cent for some prime cuts of beef. In the Kebayoran Lama wet market in South Jakarta, the largest increase in price was for sirloin beef, from around 60 000 rupiah (A$6.02) per kilogram in May 2010 to around 141 000 rupiah (A$14.15) per kilogram in August 2013. The price of frozen Australian sirloin beef rose more than sirloin beef from local cattle largely reflecting the declining availability of Australian beef in Indonesian markets.

Sirloin beef prices, Kebayoran Lama wet market, Indonesia

Rp/kg

Indonesian sirloin (fresh)Australian sirloin (frozen)

30 000

60 000

90 000

120 000

150 000

Aug2013

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

Aug2010

Declining cattle herd

According to Indonesia’s 2013 agricultural census, the Indonesian cattle herd (buffalo, beef and dairy cattle) declined by 15 per cent from 16.7 million head in 2011 to 14.2 million head as at May 2013. The decline reflects the continual slaughter of cattle (including breeding stock) for meat, as producers liquidate their herds to take advantage of the high beef prices.

continued...

86

Beef and veal


Indonesian beef imports and reference price mechanism continued

Cattle population, Indonesia

million head

4

8

12

16

20

201320112009200720052003

Note: Cattle population includes bu�alo, beef and dairy cattle. Data not available for 2012.Source: Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics

Indonesian beef supply

Recent liquidation of the Indonesian cattle herd has led to a 12 per cent increase in beef production from local cattle, from 411 000 tonnes in 2011 to 459 000 tonnes in 2012. However, this rise in production from local cattle has not been enough to offset Indonesia’s declining supply of imported beef and meat from imported cattle.

Net beef supply, Indonesia

Production from local cattle (cwt)

Live cattle imports meat equivalent (cwt)

Beef imports (cwt)

kt

Source: ABARES (live cattle imports meat equivalent); Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (beef imports); Indonesian Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Services (production)

100

200

300

400

500

600

20122010200820062004

continued...

87

Beef and veal


Indonesian beef imports and reference price mechanism continued

Imported beef and beef from cattle imports fell by 58 per cent from 234 000 tonnes in 2009 to 98 000 tonnes in 2012 because of Indonesian trade restrictions adopted in 2010. In 2013 the Indonesian Government further reduced the import quota by 16 000 head to 267 000 head for cattle and by 9000 tonnes to 32 000 tonnes for beef, although there are indications there may be an increase of import permits for an additional 25 000 head of cattle. The Indonesian Government also permitted Bulog to import 3000 tonnes of beef exempt from the quota.

Reference price mechanism

In September 2013 the Indonesian Trade Minister and Agriculture Minister jointly announced that the Indonesian Government will disband the import quota system for cattle and beef and move to a reference price mechanism for imports aimed at stabilising domestic beef prices.

The Indonesian Government intends to issue permits for cattle and beef imports when the Indonesian beef price for secondary cuts exceeds the reference price of 76 000 rupiah (A$7.60) per kilogram by 15 per cent and restrict imports when the price is 5 per cent below the reference price. Permits will be issued quarterly and be valid for three months.

Indonesian trade restrictions for cattle and beef imports

Year Trade restriction

2010 350 kilogram weight restriction imposed on cattle imports

Import permits for cattle restricted with a 32 per cent decline in

the number of cattle imported

2011 Cattle import quota of 500 000 head adopted

Beef import quota of 72 000 tonnes adopted

2012 Cattle import quota reduced to 283 000 head

Beef import quota reduced to 34 000 tonnes and then increased

to 41 000 tonnes in the second half of the year

2013 Cattle import quota reduced further to 267 000 head

Beef import quota reduced further to 32 000 tonnes

Indonesian trading enterprise Bulog permitted to import additional

3000 tonnes of beef

Additional import permits issued for 25 000 head of

slaughter-ready cattle

Reference price mechanism adopted (September)


The Australian weighted average saleyard price of lamb is forecast to increase by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to average 445 cents a kilogram, following a 20 per cent decline in 2012–13. The effects of lower lamb supplies, a weaker Australian dollar and growing demand from key export markets are expected to place upward pressure on lamb prices over the remainder of the year. However, at this forecast level, lamb prices will be around 3 per cent below the average over the 10 years to 2012–13 (460 cents a kilogram in 2013–14 dollars).

The weighted average saleyard price of sheep is forecast to rise by 28 per cent in 2013–14 to 240 cents a kilogram. An expected fall in sheep turn-off, combined with continuing growth in demand from the Middle East and China for mutton and a weaker Australian dollar are expected to provide support for sheep prices in the short term. This price forecast follows a 43 per cent fall in 2012–13, when sheep prices averaged around 187 cents, the lowest in five years in real terms.

Australian lamb, sheep and wool prices

2013–14Ac/kg

2013–14Ac/kg clean

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 Real lambsaleyard priceReal sheepsaleyard priceReal wool price (EMI) (right axis)

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Sheep meat and woolKelly Chow

89

Sheep meat and wool


In 2013–14 the Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool is forecast to average 1100 cents a kilogram clean, around 6 per cent higher than the 2012–13 average of 1035 cents a kilogram. An expected fall in wool production combined with an assumed lower Australian dollar is likely to provide support for wool prices in 2013–14, along with continuing firm demand from China.

Australian sheep flock to riseAbove average seasonal conditions in 2011–12 resulted in the Australian sheep flock expanding by 2 per cent to around 74.7 million head, largely driven by a 7 per cent increase in breeding ewes. Sheep numbers rose in all states except for Queensland and South Australia. Sheep numbers rose by 5 per cent to around 15.9 million head in Victoria. In New South Wales and Western Australia sheep numbers rose by around 3 per cent to 27.6 million and 14.4 million head, respectively.

The effects of below average rainfall throughout 2012–13 in the main sheep producing regions of Australia forced producers to reduce sheep numbers in order to manage limited feed and water supplies. Increased sheep and lamb slaughter is estimated to have contributed to a fall in sheep numbers to around 73.8 million head by the end of 2012–13. The Australian sheep flock in 2013–14 is forecast to rise slightly to 74.4 million head, reflecting an expected return to favourable seasonal conditions.

Australian sheep flock

millionhead

f ABARES forecast.

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

90

Sheep meat and wool


ProductionLamb slaughter to fallIn 2013–14 lamb slaughter is forecast to fall to around 19.6 million head, following lamb slaughter of around 21.1 million head in 2012–13, the highest since 1971–72. This forecast reflects a smaller breeding flock and lower lambing percentages as below average seasonal conditions in 2012–13 resulted in lower ewe joining rates. Lamb production is forecast to fall by around 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 427 000 tonnes. Lamb carcass weight is forecast to be slightly higher than the previous season, averaging 21.8 kilograms in 2013–14.

Dry seasonal conditions in 2012–13 resulted in an increase in lamb turn-off at lighter weights. On average, national lamb carcass weights fell by around 3 per cent from 22.2 kilograms in 2011–12 to 21.6 kilograms in 2012–13. The largest fall occurred in Tasmania, by 6 per cent to average 20.5 kilograms. In other states, the decline in carcass weight ranged from around 2 per cent in Victoria (20.9 kilograms) and New South Wales (22.4 kilograms) to 3 per cent in South Australia (23.3 kilograms), Queensland (21.0 kilograms) and Western Australia (20.7 kilograms).

Australian average lamb carcass weight by state

2011–122012–13

kg

5

10

15

20

25

Tasmania

WesternAustralia

SouthAustralia

Queensland

Victoria

New SouthWales

Lower mutton productionA smaller opening sheep inventory, combined with an expected fall in sheep slaughter rates as producers hold on to stock, is forecast to result in sheep slaughter falling by 23 per cent in 2013–14 to around 6.3 million head. Mutton production is forecast to fall by around 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 146 000 tonnes. The fall in slaughter numbers is expected to be partially offset by a higher average sheep carcass weight of around 23.0 kilograms in 2013–14, up from 22.4 kilograms in 2012–13.

In 2012–13 sheep turn-off rose by 58 per cent to 8.2 million head, much higher than the 5.2 million head in 2011–12, reflecting hot dry conditions during summer and below average rainfall in autumn. On average, total sheep slaughter rose by around 86 per cent in the first half of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012. New South Wales accounted for 36 per cent of the increased slaughter of 3 million sheep, Victoria (23 per cent), Western Australia (23 per cent) and South Australia (12 per cent).

91

Sheep meat and wool


Lower average wool cut and wool productionIn 2013–14 Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decline by around 1 per cent to 348 000 tonnes. This reduction reflects lower average wool cut at around 4.23 kilograms per head, down from 4.32 kilograms per head in 2012–13.

According to Australian Wool Testing Authority key test data, the number of bales of wool tested that were less than 17.5 microns rose by 31 per cent in 2012–13 to 35 163 bales. In comparison, the quantity of wool bales tested that were medium to strong wools (21.6 micron and stronger) declined by 9496 bales, or 8 per cent.

Australian wool micron profile

2011–122012–13

’000bales

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

30.6+

28.6–30.5

26.6–28.5

24.6–26.5

23.6–24.5

22.6–23.5

21.6–22.5

20.6–21.5

19.6–20.5

18.6–19.5

17.6–18.5

16.6–17.5

0.0–16.5

ExportsLamb export earnings to be maintainedIn 2013–14 Australian exports of lamb are forecast to decrease by 11 per cent to around 179 000 tonnes shipped weight after reaching a record high of 201 000 tonnes in 2012–13. While the volume of Australia lamb exports is forecast to be lower, emerging markets in the Middle East and China are expected to account for an increasing share. The value of Australian lamb exports is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at around $1.1 billion due to expected higher export prices.

Lamb exports increased by around 79 per cent over the past 10 years, from 112 000 tonnes shipped weight in 2003–04 to more than 200 000 tonnes shipped weight in 2012–13. Over that period, the share of Australian lamb exports destined for the Middle East grew from 8 per cent to 29 per cent, while China’s share rose from 8 per cent to 17 per cent.

92

Sheep meat and wool


Australian lamb exports by destination

2003–042012–13

kt

10

20

30

40

50

60

other

UnitedKingdom

PapuaNew Guinea

China

UnitedStates

MiddleEast

Higher returns for mutton exportsAustralian exports of mutton are forecast to fall by around 18 per cent in 2013–14 to 118 000 tonnes shipped weight, reflecting lower sheep supplies. The value of mutton exports is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to around $525 million dollars. In addition to forecast lower mutton supplies, the weaker Australian dollar is expected to place upward pressure on export prices. Mutton exports to the Middle East and China are expected to remain strong, with China accounting for an increasing share of Australian mutton exports.

Wool exports to fall marginallyTotal Australian wool exports are forecast to decline by around 3 per cent in 2013–14 to around 423 000 tonnes greasy, reflecting the forecast fall in wool production. This follows a 9 per cent increase in Australian wool exports in 2012–13 to 442 000 tonnes. The value of Australian wool exports are forecast to decline by around 1 per cent in 2013–14 to $2.8 billion, with expected higher export unit returns not sufficient to offset lower volumes exported. China is expected to remain the largest buyer of Australian wool, accounting for more than 75 per cent of Australian wool exports (greasy equivalent) in 2013–14.

Wool exports to ChinaAustralian wool exports have declined over the past two decades, reflecting the gradual decline in total sheep numbers and increasing shift toward sheep meat production. Between 2000–01 and 2012–13 wool exports declined by around 50 per cent to 438 000 tonnes greasy.

93

Sheep meat and wool


The destination for wool exports from Australia has shifted over time, reflecting relocation of wool processing facilities from relatively high labour cost regions such as Western Europe to lower labour cost countries, especially China. This has led to a significant reduction of Australian wool exports to traditional markets such as the European Union, Japan, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. Between 2000–01 and 2012–13 the share of wool exports destined for the European Union declined from 32 per cent to 8 per cent, while wool exports destined for Japan, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea together fell to around 4 per cent of total Australian wool exports.

Australian wool exports by destination

China 37%

European Union 32%

India 5%

Korea, Republic of 5%

Taiwan 5%

Japan 3%

Other 13%

China 78%

European Union 8%

India 5%

Korea, Republic of 2%

Russian Federation 1%

Other 6%

2000–01 (847.7 kt greasy)

2012–13 (437.7 kt greasy)

By contrast, China’s share of Australian wool exports has grown from 37 per cent in 2000–01 to 78 per cent in 2012–13. Over this period, wool types exported to China have shifted from coarser to finer wool. In 2000–01 superfine wool of 19 microns and finer accounted for 9 per cent of China’s imports of Australian wool. By 2012–13 this share had more than tripled to 34 per cent. China’s imports of Australian mid-micron (20 microns to 27 microns) wool declined on a share basis from 66 per cent to 37 per cent over the same period.

94

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat and wool outlookSheep and wool outlookSheepandwooloutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changellSheep numbers a million 75 74 74 0.0p

Sheep shorn million 83 82 82 0.0Sheep shorn million 83 82 82 0.0SlaughteringsSh ’000 5 175 8 192 6 343 22 6Slaughterings Sheep ’000 5 175 8 192 6 343 – 22.6Lamb ’000 18 879 21 122 19 603 – 7.2Lamb 000 18 879 21 122 19 603 7.2Production bMutton kt 120 183 146 20 2Production bMutton kt 120 183 146 – 20.2

bLamb kt 419 457 427 – 6.6Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 362 353 345 – 2 3Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 362 353 345 – 2.3

h kt 49 75 66 12 0– other c kt 49 75 66 – 12.0– total kt 411 427 411 – 3.7 total kt 411 427 411 3.7ExportsMutton kt swt 89 144 118 18 1ExportsMutton kt swt 89 144 118 – 18.1Lamb kt swt 174 201 179 – 10.9– to United States kt swt 35 37 34 – 8.1– to United States kt swt 35 37 34 8.1Total sheep meat kt swt 263 344 298 – 13 4Total sheep meat kt swt 263 344 298 – 13.4

l $ 1 422 1 564 1 638 4 7– value $m 1 422 1 564 1 638 4.7WoolWool– volume (gr equiv ) kt 405 442 423 – 4 3– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 405 442 423 – 4.3to China kt 306 342 329 3 8– to China kt 306 342 329 – 3.8

– value d $m 3 123 2 862 2 826 – 1.3 value d $PricesSheep e Ac/kg 330 187 240 28 3PricesSheep e Ac/kg 330 187 240 28.3

b /kLamb e Ac/kg 480 386 445 15.3gEastern Market Indicator g Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 100 6.3Eastern Market Indicator g Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 100 6.3

a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. d Balance of payments basis. e Saleyard prices. f ABARES forecast. g Clean equivalent. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange







The weighted average over-the-hooks price of pigs is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 300 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), due to the lower Australian dollar increasing import and export competitiveness. Domestic feed grain prices, which account for more than 50 per cent of production costs, are forecast to fall and will also help profitability for pig producers. This reflects lower world prices because of higher production in the northern hemisphere.

Australian pig meat production and weighted average price

Production

kt 2013–14Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Production to riseIn 2013–14 Australian pig meat production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 362 000 tonnes. Forecast lower prices of feed grains is expected to support greater retention of breeding sows and an increase in overall pig numbers as returns from production increase. The pig-to-wheat and pig-to-barley price ratios—indicators of returns from pig production—are expected to rise over the remainder of 2013–14.

Pig meatClay Mifsud

96

Pig meat


In 2012–13 Australian pig meat production increased by 1.5 per cent to 356 000 tonnes, reflecting growth in average slaughter weights. The average pig slaughter weight increased by more than 1 per cent to a record 75 kilograms, while the number of pigs slaughtered rose slightly from the previous year.

Australian pig-to-feed price ratios, quarterly, ended June 2013

ratio

Pig-to-barley

Pig-to-wheat

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Jun2013

Jun2011

Jun2009

Jun2007

Jun2005

Jun2003

Lower imports in 2013–14Imports of pig meat in Australia increased three-fold over the 10 years to 2012–13, resulting in greater competition for manufacturers of Australian ham, bacon and smallgoods. Australia’s import policy for pig meat allows cooked and uncooked (for cooking upon arrival in Australia) deboned pig meat to be imported from approved countries subject to specific import conditions. Because of quarantine restrictions, all fresh pig meat sold in Australia is domestically produced.

Australian pig meat imports increased year-on-year by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to 152 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Imports from the United States—the largest supplier—increased by 6 per cent to 62 000 tonnes, as lower US pig prices and a higher Australian dollar made US pig meat increasingly competitive compared with Australian pig meat in the processed pig meat market. The higher Australian dollar also contributed to growth in imports from Denmark and the Netherlands. The share of imports in Australian pig meat consumption rose by 1 percentage point to 49 per cent in 2012–13.

97

Pig meat


Australian pig meat consumption

ImportedDomestically produced

ktcwe

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

f ABARES forecast.

In 2013–14 Australian pig meat imports are forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 147 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting a decline in the competitiveness of imports in the domestic processed pig meat market. The Australian dollar is assumed to average lower, making imports from North America and the European Union—where more than 98 per cent of Australia’s imports are sourced—more expensive in Australian dollar terms.

Australian pig meat imports

Other

Netherlands

United States

Denmark

Canada

kt

f ABARES forecast.

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

98

Pig meat


Exports to rise slightly in 2013–14Australian pig meat exports fell by 11 per cent in 2012–13 to 26 000 tonnes (shipped weight), the lowest since 1998–99, reflecting increased competition in export destinations from other pig meat exporters. Shipments to Singapore—Australia’s largest export market for pig meat—fell by 14 per cent to 9000 tonnes as Singaporean imports of pig meat from the Netherlands and live pigs from Indonesia increased. Australian exports to most other markets in the Asia–Pacific region, including Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong and Malaysia, also declined in 2012–13.

Australian pig meat exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to around 27 000 tonnes (shipped weight), with Singapore and New Zealand expected to remain the largest markets. The lower Australian dollar is likely to make Australian pig meat more price competitive in export markets. However, pig meat exports are forecast to remain low relative to the 10-year average to 2012–13 of 37 000 tonnes.

Australian pig meat exports

Other

Hong Kong

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

JapanSingapore

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pig meat outlook

% unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

% changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

Over‐the‐hooks price a Ac/kg 281 285 300 5.1p / gSlaughterings ’000 4 733 4 745 4 830 1.8Slaughterings 000 4 733 4 745 4 830 1.8Production kt 351 356 362 1 8Production kt 351 356 362 1.8Import volume b kt 142 152 147 – 3.3Import volume bExport volume bc kt 29 26 27 2.7Export volume bc kt 29 26 27 2.7Export value $m 100 81 83 1 7Export value $m 100 81 83 1.7

a Dressed weight. b Shipped weight. c Excludes preserved pig meat. f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics






Australian chicken meat production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 1.1 million tonnes in response to higher prices driven by strong consumer demand. Despite forecast increased chicken meat prices, their relativity to considerably higher beef, sheep meat and pig meat prices is expected to continue to support growth in consumer demand.

In 2012–13 Australian chicken meat production increased by 2 per cent to 1.05 million tonnes. Higher production over the past year reflects a 2 per cent increase in the number of birds slaughtered to 563 million head, as the meat yield per bird remained steady at an average of 1.9 kilograms.

Domestic consumption of chicken meat is forecast to be around 44 kilograms per person in 2013–14, 1 per cent higher than in 2012–13. Disparity in retail prices between chicken and other meats has contributed to Australian per person chicken meat consumption increasing by 80 per cent over 20 years to 2012–13, to be among the highest in the OECD.

The chicken meat industry in Australia is highly vertically integrated; two privately owned companies supply around 70 per cent of meat chickens for slaughter. Five privately owned medium sized processors and a number of smaller processors supply the remaining 30 per cent. About 80 per cent of all meat chickens are produced under contract—processors supply day-old chicks and rearing specifications—and the remaining 20 per cent are grown on company farms.

About 96 per cent of Australian chicken meat production is consumed domestically and the remainder is exported. In 2012–13 Australian chicken meat exports fell 13 per cent to 29 000 tonnes (shipped weight) reflecting temporary bans placed on imports of Australian poultry after avian influenza (H7N7) was detected in New South Wales. In 2013–14 Australian chicken meat exports are forecast to resume growing and are expected to reach 34 000 tonnes.

Chicken meatClay Mifsud

100

Chicken meat


Australian chicken meat exports

Volume

kt2013–14A$m

Value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

10

20

30

40

50

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Chicken meat imports in AustraliaThe Australian chicken meat industry is not under significant competition from imports. Imports of cooked chicken meat have been permitted in Australia since 1998 and fresh since 2008 but import volumes remain low relative to domestic production.

Imports of deboned cooked chicken meat were negligible until the late 2000s, with more than 80 per cent of imports sourced from New Zealand and Thailand. In 2012–13 imports of cooked chicken meat increased by 25 per cent to 7000 tonnes, with a value of $50 million. However, this represents around 1 per cent of Australian chicken meat consumption.

Imported cooked chicken meat must comply with the Imported Food Control Act 1992 and the Australian Food Standards Code under the National Food Authority Act 1991. Under this legislation the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry may inspect, sample, hold and test imported cooked chicken meat for microbial agents or residues of public health concern. The chickens from which the cooked chicken meat is produced must originate from the country of export. The meat must be cooked at high temperature for at least 125 minutes to ensure eradication of pests or bacteria. Chicken meat for export to Australia must be processed and stored separately from all other meat processed in the same facility.

101

Chicken meat


Australian cooked chicken meat imports

Other

Thailand

New Zealand

kt2012–13A$m

Value (right axis)

2

4

6

8

10

10

20

30

40

50

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

In 2008 Australia’s Director of Animal and Plant Quarantine made a policy determination establishing quarantine requirements for importation of fresh chicken meat, based on a generic import risk analysis report. The import risk analysis recommended that imports of chicken meat be permitted subject to quarantine conditions for nine disease agents of quarantine concern, including notifiable avian influenza, Newcastle disease and infectious bursal disease. At July 2013 less than 300 tonnes of fresh chicken meat had been imported.

Chicken meat outlook %

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011 12 2012 13 s 2013 14 f change

Production kt 1 030 1 046 1 070 2.3Export volume a kt 33.6 29.3 34.0 16.0Export volume a kt 33.6 29.3 34.0 16.0Export value $m 39 7 39 4 44 0 11 7Export value $m 39.7 39.4 44.0 11.7

a Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


World dairy product prices rose in March and April 2013 largely in response to lower milk production in key dairy exporting countries and continuing firm import demand. World dairy prices eased again in the period May to July 2013 but remained well above prices prevailing in mid 2012.

Despite forecast higher global milk production, world dairy product prices are forecast to average slightly higher in 2013–14 driven by continuing firm growth in import demand, particularly from the developing countries of Asia. World trade was strong in the first half of 2013 driven by higher imports by China, the Russian Federation and the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

Overall, world dairy product prices are forecast to rise by around 3 per cent in 2013–14. World prices for whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter and cheese are forecast to average US$3950 a tonne, US$3850 a tonne, US$3850 a tonne and US$4260 a tonne, respectively in 2013–14.

World dairy prices

US$/t

Cheese

Skim milk powderButter

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jul2013

Jul2012

Jul2011

Jul2010

Jul2009

Jul2008

Jul2007

Jul2006

Jul2005

Dairy David Barrett and Caitlin Murray

103

Dairy


Major dairy exporters to increase productionAssuming average seasonal conditions in the remainder of 2013–14, milk production in the major dairy producing and exporting countries is expected to increase in 2013–14 as a result of forecast higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain prices.

European UnionEU milk production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in the 2013–14 marketing year (April to March) despite cool and wet conditions constraining growth in EU milk output in the first quarter of the marketing year. Forecast higher EU farmgate milk prices, lower feed costs and improved availability of forage are expected to lead to an increase in milk production in the European Union in 2013–14.

Average farmgate milk prices in the European Union were around 10 per cent higher year-on-year in May 2013. This reflected increases in EU wholesale prices for most dairy products in the 12 months to May 2013.

In 2012–13 EU milk production declined by around 1 per cent, reflecting relatively low farmgate milk prices, high feed costs and below average seasonal conditions in many EU member countries. Milk production fell in France (by 2 per cent year-on-year), Italy (4 per cent), the United Kingdom (4 per cent) and Ireland (4 per cent). Milk production in Germany and Poland increased by 0.5 per cent and 3 per cent over the same period.

EU consumption of dairy products is expected to remain subdued in 2013–14 reflecting assumed continuing weak economic activity and high unemployment in many EU countries. Given these expected developments in consumption, much of the forecast higher dairy product production, in particular cheese and butter, is likely to be exported.

EU milk production, selected countries, year-on-year change, 2012–13

kt

0

–400

–200

200

400

United Kingdom

PolandItalyIrelandGermany France

104

Dairy


United StatesMilk production in the United States is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2014 to 93 million tonnes following a forecast similar rise in 2013. Forecast lower feed grain prices are expected to lead to an increase in the milk-to-feed price ratio and improved profitability in the dairy sector. As a result, US dairy farmers are expected to commence herd rebuilding. This, together with continued gains in milk yields, is expected to lead to higher milk production, particularly in the first half of 2014.

US commercial stocks of dairy products in mid 2013 were significantly higher than a year ago, largely reflecting subdued US domestic demand for dairy products. These higher stocks, combined with forecast higher dairy product production and strong export demand are expected to lead to a rise in exports in 2013. US exports of skim milk powder are forecast to rise by around 15 per cent to 515 000 tonnes in 2013 while US cheese exports are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to around 290 000 tonnes.

US skim milk powder exports, by destination

OtherNorth Africa and Middle EastChinaSouth-East AsiaMexico

kt

100

200

300

400

500

2012201020082006200420022000

New ZealandMilk production in New Zealand is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent in 2013–14 (June to May) following a 3 per cent fall in production in 2012–13. Significant rainfall in the main dairying regions of New Zealand between May and August 2013 improved pasture conditions considerably following drought in the North Island during the first three months of 2013.

While dairy farmers in the North Island increased culling of cows during the second half of 2012–13, forecast higher farmgate milk prices and improved seasonal conditions are expected to lead to a modest rebuilding of cow numbers during 2013–14. An increase in the dairy herd is expected in the South Island in 2013–14 as further beef farms convert to dairying.

New Zealand exports of dairy products, particularly milk powders, are forecast to rise in 2013–14 in response to strong export demand from China, South-East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

105

Dairy


New Zealand dairy cows

South IslandNorth Island

million head

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

201220102008200620042002

South AmericaAssuming favourable seasonal conditions, milk production in Brazil and Argentina is forecast to rise by around 3 per cent in 2013–14. In the first half of 2013 milk production in Argentina was affected by adverse seasonal conditions and, as a result, dairy exports from Argentina fell sharply during this period. Forecast higher production, limited growth in domestic consumption and firm export demand is expected to lead to an increase in Argentine dairy exports, particularly whole milk powder, in 2013–14.

Growth in global import demandA strengthening of economic growth through 2013–14 in the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa is expected to underpin increased trade in dairy products.

China is expected to remain the largest global importer of milk powders. Imports of whole milk powder are forecast to rise by aroud 20 per cent to 500 000 tonnes in 2013. Despite relatively high world prices for whole milk powder, Chinese imports were around 50 per cent higher in the first six months of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012. Over the past four years Chinese imports of milk powders have risen significantly in response to increasing demand for infant formula powder and consumer concerns about the safety of domestically produced product. New Zealand supplied around 96 per cent of Chinese imports of whole milk powder in 2012.

New Zealand exported 104 000 tonnes of whey products in 2012 of which 11 400 tonnes were exported to China. In early August 2013 China imposed a temporary ban on import of Fonterra’s whey powder and dairy base powder (an ingredient used in manufacture of infant formula) from New Zealand, after Fonterra recalled product because it had been contaminated by the potentially dangerous bacteria Clostridium botulinum. Whey powder product had also been exported to Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Saudi Arabia. However, on 30 August New Zealand’s Ministry for Primary Industries confirmed that further test results showed the bacteria present to be Clostridium sporogenes, which poses no direct health risks to consumers but if in high enough concentrations may result in food spoilage.

106

Dairy


China whole milk powder

kt

Consumption

ProductionImports

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2013f201120092007200520032001

f ABARES forecast.

South-East Asia’s import demand for milk powders is forecast to remain firm in 2013 reflecting modest economic growth in most countries in the region. Consumption of dairy products has been steadily rising in recent years driven by increasing incomes, greater access to refrigeration and emergence of supermarkets in urban centres. Limited domestic milk production means most countries in this region rely on imports to meet growth in domestic demand. Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to import around 215 000 tonnes and 110 000 tonnes, respectively, of skim milk powder in 2013.

Exports of skim milk powder from the European Union to the Middle East and North Africa are forecast to fall by around 20 per cent in 2013 as a result of lower EU domestic production. With continued strong demand for milk powders in this region, exports of milk powders from other countries, such as the United States, are expected to increase. Algeria is expected to remain a large regional importer of milk powders with imports of whole milk powder forecast to increase by around 5 per cent to 185 000 tonnes in 2013.

After rising strongly in 2011 and 2012 Mexican imports of skim milk powder are forecast to level off in 2013 at around 230 000 tonnes; the United States is expected to supply just under 90 per cent of its imports. Cheese imports by Mexico are expected to rise by around 3 per cent to 92 000 tonnes in 2013 reflecting further growth in consumer demand.

Reflecting relatively firm domestic demand for dairy products in the Russian Federation, imports of cheese and butter are forecast to rise slightly to 360 000 tonnes and 130 000 tonnes, respectively, in 2013. Milk production in the Russian Federation fell in 2012–13 as farmers reduced their dairy herds in response to relatively high feed costs and, as a result, dairy production declined. Japanese imports of cheese are forecast to rise by around 2 per cent to 240 000 tonnes in 2013 following record imports of cheese in 2012. This reflects continuing firm Japanese demand for cheese in the retail, convenience and food service sectors.

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Dairy


Australian dairy industryThe Australian farmgate milk price is forecast to increase by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to average around 46 cents a litre, reflecting higher world dairy product prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. Such a price outcome would be 6 per cent higher than the average real price of 43.3 cents a litre for the three years to 2012–13.

Opening prices for manufacturing milk in 2013–14 were set around 24 per cent higher by dairy processors in Victoria at around 42 cents a litre.

Australian milk production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 9.4 billion litres. With only a marginal increase in the dairy herd forecast, the growth in production reflects expected higher yields following a return to favourable seasonal conditions. Grain and fodder accounts for around 25 per cent of dairy farmers’ cash costs so forecast lower supplementary feed prices are also expected to result in increased feeding of supplements and higher average milk yields in 2013–14.

Milk production in Victoria, which accounts for around two-thirds of Australia’s production, is forecast to increase in 2013–14 largely reflecting improved seasonal conditions, continuing availability of irrigation water and forecast lower grain prices. Victorian production declined by 3 per cent to 6 billion litres in 2012–13, with lower production in the eastern and western dairying regions of the state because of dry seasonal conditions. In northern Victoria, where production is most reliant on irrigation water, production increased by 3 per cent in 2012–13.

Australian milk production and dairy cows

Milk production

ML’000head

Dairy cows(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 000

12 000

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

108

Dairy


Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to increase by 15 per cent to $2.6 billion in 2013–14. This largely reflects the effect of forecast higher average dairy product prices on world markets and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

The volume of cheese exports is forecast to increase by close to 1 per cent to 176 000 tonnes in 2013–14. Skim milk and whole milk powder exports are also forecast to increase by 3 per cent and 2 per cent to 152 000 tonnes and 89 000 tonnes, respectively. Australian exporters are likely to face increased competition in key Asian markets, particularly in the second half of 2013–14, as a result of forecast higher export availability of dairy products from New Zealand, the European Union and the United States.

Dairy outlookDairy outlookDairyoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeAustraliaAustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 700 1 690 1 695 0.3Cow numbers aMilk yields L/cow 5 577 5 444 5 546 1.9Milk yields L/cow 5 577 5 444 5 546 1.9Production

l ilkProductionTotal milk ML 9 480 9 200 9 400 2.2– market sales ML 2 389 2 450 2 500 2.0 market sales ML 2 389 2 450 2 500 2.0– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 750 6 900 2.2– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 750 6 900 2.2Butter b kt 120 118 120 1 7Butter b kt 120 118 120 1.7Cheese kt 340 331 342 3 3Cheese kt 340 331 342 3.3Wh l ilk d k 140 109 112 2 8Whole milk powder kt 140 109 112 2.8pSkim milk powder kt 230 224 230 2.7Skim milk powder kt 230 224 230 2.7Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.0 46.0 17.9Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.0 46.0 17.9Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 229 2 562 14 9Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 229 2 562 14.9

ld iWorld pricesButter US$/t 3 883 3 727 3 850 3.3

pButter US$/t 3 883 3 727 3 850 3.3Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 260 2.7Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 260 2.7Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 731 3 850 3 2Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 731 3 850 3.2Wh l ilk d US$/t 3 431 3 831 3 950 3 1Whole milk powder US$/t 3 431 3 831 3 950 3.1a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia






• According to Reserve Bank of Australia data, total bank lending to the rural sector declined (in real terms) from $63.4 billion at 30 June 2009 to $58.6 billion at 31 March 2013.

• Average debt per farm business more than doubled (in real terms) for broadacre and dairy farms between 1999–2000 and 2009–10, but has since declined slightly due to a reduction in new borrowing and continued debt repayments.

• Increases in farm debt over the past 15 years are due to rapid expansion in borrowing for on-farm investment, particularly land purchase, and to finance ongoing working capital requirements. Rates of principal repayment have also slowed.

• Much of the aggregate broadacre and dairy sector debt is held by a relatively small proportion of mostly large farms, especially in Western Australia (for both broadacre and dairy), Northern Territory (broadacre), Tasmania (dairy) and South Australia (dairy).

• The average proportion of farm receipts consumed by interest payment remains relatively high compared with previous years, land values have declined in some regions and institutions have tightened lending.

• Family farms in Australia rely on high farm equity to provide the reserve capacity to borrow to meet cashflow needs during periods of reduced farm income. Prolonged reduction in equity and debt servicing capacity raises the financial risk for these farm businesses.

Change in aggregate farm debtDebt is an important source of funds for farmers. It is used for a range of purposes, including purchasing land, new plant and equipment and ongoing working capital. Farm business debt has increased substantially in recent years and net farm incomes have become sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Total rural indebtedness to institutional lenders increased (in real terms) from $32.2 billion to $68.5 billion (213 per cent) in the decade to June 2009. Over the same period, the level of rural debt as a share of the gross value of rural production increased from 65 per cent to 122 per cent.

At 30 June 2012 total rural indebtedness to institutional lenders (including finance companies, pastoral companies, insurance companies and government) was $63.6 billion—of this, banks were owed 92 per cent ($59.7 billion).

Farm debt: farm level analysisPeter Martin

110

Farm debt: farm level analysis


Bank lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry sectors

2012–13$b

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar2013

Mar2011

Mar2009

Mar2007

Mar2005

Mar2003

Mar2001

Mar1999

Mar1997

Mar1995

Since 2008–09 aggregate bank lending to the rural sector has declined (in real terms) as financial institutions tighten new lending and some farms reduce debt. According to Reserve Bank of Australia data, total bank lending to the rural sector declined (in real terms) from $63.4 billion at 30 June 2009 to $58.6 billion at 31 March 2013.

Farm business debt in Australia has been the subject of discussion in the past year, including the Rural Finance Roundtable held in October 2012. Discussion has centred on aggregate debt statistics. However, such analysis masks variation in the experiences of individual borrowers.

Trends in average debt per farmThis analysis draws on data from the ABARES annual survey of broadacre and dairy farms, the Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey (AAGIS) and the Australian Dairy Industry Survey (ADIS). These surveys target farm businesses with an estimated value of agricultural operations exceeding $40 000, which effectively excludes small lifestyle farms from survey coverage. Broadacre industries ABARES surveyed include farms that mainly rely on grains, oilseeds and pulses or run sheep or beef cattle. The detailed physical, financial and management information collected in these surveys includes individual debt each farm business held, the opening and closing balance for the year, type of debt, principal use of borrowed funds and reason for the increase or decrease in the principal owing. The broadacre industries and dairy industries together account for 65 per cent of commercial-scale Australian farm businesses (ABARES 2013).

Average debt per farm business more than doubled (in real terms) for both broadacre and dairy farms between 1999–2000 and 2009–10.

Since 2009–10 average debt per farm business is estimated to have declined slightly for both broadacre and dairy farms (in real terms) due to reduced new borrowing and continued repayment of debt.

Interest rates farmers paid were high in the early 1990s but declined through the mid and late 1990s. Lower interest rates and increased lending fuelled a boom in land prices, raising farm equity (net wealth) and inducing lenders to provide more finance. This was despite an increase in the variability of farm incomes and no trend

111



increase in farm profitability. Rising land values has meant that equity relative to debt has remained relatively stable despite the large increase in debt .In addition, debt servicing was supported by interest subsidies to farmers in drought through the exceptional circumstances arrangements. For many regions this assistance was sustained for most of the 2000s.

Interest rate paid, average for broadacre and dairy farms

%

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: AAGIS; ADIS

4

8

12

16

20

2011–12p

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

Broadacre farm debtBroadacre debt increased in real terms from an average of $266 000 per farm in 2000–01 to $546 000 per farm in 2009–10. The largest contribution to this increase in average broadacre farm debt was borrowing to fund new on-farm investment—particularly purchase of land, machinery and vehicles—and to develop land and farm improvements. Debt to fund land purchase accounts for the largest share of debt, an estimated 44 per cent of average debt for broadacre farms in 2011–12.

Broadacre farm debt, average per farm

OtherReconstructed debtWorking capitalLivestockVehicles, plant andmachineryBuilding and structuredevelopmentLand developmentLand purchase

2012–13$’000

100

200

300

400

500

600

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: AAGIS

2011–12p

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

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Most increases in average debt during the 2000s were in step with increases in land values. As broadacre farmers’ equity increased with rising land prices, debt increased with it. In some regions this continued until the correction in land values after 2009. The regions most affected were those with the largest increase in land values in the decade to June 2009 and a high incidence of low farm cash incomes in recent years. These include pastoral regions of northern Australia and the eastern and northern wheat belts of Western Australia, south-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia. Equity of broadacre farmers in these regions has shrunk as land values have declined.

Net investment in plant, vehicles, machinery and farm infrastructure for broadacre farms has been high for the decade ending 2011–12. Borrowing to finance purchase of vehicles, machinery and plant rose by 150 per cent (in real terms) between 1999–2000 and 2011–12.

Structural adjustment during this period resulted in broadacre farmers changing the mix of commodities produced and increasing farm size. An increase in the average size of farm enterprises resulted in higher borrowing for ongoing working capital. Around 25 per cent of the increase in average broadacre farm debt during the 2000s can be attributed to an increase in the average scale of farm enterprises on broadacre farms.

Movement away from less input-intensive wool production into more intensive cropping, changes in grain payment methods and movement to more intensive production technologies involving greater use of purchased inputs—such as herbicides—have also contributed to increased working capital debt.

In addition, borrowing to meet working capital requirements increased for producers during the 2000s as drought in many regions reduced farm cash incomes. These increases were particularly large in 2006–07—the year in which farm cash incomes were reduced most by drought. Working capital debt accounted for 35 per cent of average farm debt for broadacre farms in 2011–12.

Overall, the increase in average debt for on-farm investment and working capital has been similar—an increase of 235 per cent (in real terms) between 1999–2000 and 2011–12.

Debt per sheep equivalent a, average by broadacre industry

index1998–99

=100

a Measure of the scale of farm operations expressed in sheep equivalents. p ABARES preliminary estimate. Source: AAGIS

50

100

150

200

250 Beef industry

Sheep industryGrains industry

2011–12p

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

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Relative to the change in the size of farm enterprises (expressed in sheep equivalents), increase in average debt has been largest for the beef industry. The increase in beef industry debt over the decade to June 2009 mainly funded land purchase, particularly in northern Australia (ABARES 2013).

Debt is estimated to have declined slightly for beef and sheep industry farms since 2009–10 and on average to have remained steady for grains industry farms.

Dairy farm debtAverage dairy farm debt increased in real terms from $345 000 per farm in 2000–01 to $747 000 per farm in 2009–10. Much of this increase was due to a rapid expansion in average farm size. An increase in average debt per farm would probably have occurred as a result of the exit of small farms from the industry even without additional borrowing. Many of the small farms had little or no debt and their exit from the industry raised the average debt for the remaining farms.

Dairy farm debt, average per farm

OtherReconstructed debtWorking capitalLivestockVehicles, plant andmachineryBuilding and structuredevelopmentLand developmentLand purchase

2012–13$’000

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: ADIS

2011–12p

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Borrowing has increased for land purchase, in particular, and for on-farm investment. Demand for ongoing working capital has also risen with increases in average herd size and mechanisation and intensification of dairy enterprises.

The increase in average debt per farm, over time, appears large. However, it is modest relative to increase in size of the average dairy herd or the average number of litres of milk produced per farm (a measure of capacity to generate income to service debt). Average debt per litre of milk produced increased by 19 per cent (in real terms) between 1998–99 and 2011–12.

114



Change in farm business debt, dairy farms Australia

y ABARES provisional estimate.Source: ADIS

50

100

150

200

250 Debt per farm

Debt per cowDebt per litre

2012–13y

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

index1998–99

=100

Principal repaymentThe annual change in average farm business debt is the balance between the amount of principal repaid over the year and the increase in principal owed (new borrowing). The increase in average farm debt during the 2000s is due to increased borrowing and reduced rate of principal repayment.

The rise in use of interest-only loans has contributed to the increase in farm debt. The proportion of principal outstanding that is repaid annually declined through the 2000s. The lower rate of principal repayment may partly be due to the inability of farm businesses to make larger principal repayments, constrained by low farm cash incomes through the 2000s drought. However, over the longer term the proportion of farm businesses paying only interest on at least a part of their farm debt has steadily increased.

Change in farm business debt and equity, broadacre farms Australia

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: AAGIS

Farm business equity

Farm business debtEquity ratio (right axis)

index1998–99

=100

Equityratio %

100

200

300

400

500

60

70

80

90

100

2011–12p

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

115



Change in farm business debt and equity, dairy farms Australia

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: ADIS

Farm business equity

Farm business debtEquity ratio (right axis)

index1998–99

=100

Equityratio %

100

200

300

400

500

60

70

80

90

100

2011–12p

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Farm equityOn average, farm business equity remains strong for broadacre farms. The average equity ratio for broadacre farms, at 30 June 2012, was an estimated 88 per cent. In some regions farm equity is estimated to have fallen significantly over the three years ending June 2012, mainly as a consequence of reported reductions in land values. However, in other regions, farm equity has strengthened because of reduced farm debt, increased capital investment and increased livestock numbers.

At the national level, the average equity ratio for dairy farms has declined slightly since 2004–05 because debt levels have increased and land values have declined. However, the average farm equity ratio remains relatively high, averaging 80 per cent at 30 June 2012. Change in dairy farm equity ratios should be considered against the background of the increase in average farm size. Equity ratios are typically lower for larger farms because they are generally able to service larger debts.

Distribution of farms by debt and equityThe proportion of broadacre farms with relatively high debt varies across jurisdictions and industries.

Around 28 per cent of broadacre farms in Western Australia and around 32 per cent of Northern Territory farms carried in excess of $1 million in debt at 30 June 2012. The high proportion of farms with debt exceeding $1 million reflects a high proportion of larger businesses in those jurisdictions.

Around 55 per cent of Tasmanian dairy farms, 43 per cent of Western Australian dairy farms and 36 per cent of South Australian dairy farms carried in excess of $1 million in debt at 30 June 2012. The high proportion of farms with debt exceeding $1 million in these states reflects a greater number of larger businesses in those jurisdictions and a high level of new investment on large dairy farms in recent years. New investment in large dairy operations has occurred mostly in northern Tasmania, Western Victoria and South Australia.

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By contrast, around 54 per cent of broadacre farms and 21 per cent of dairy farms nationally were recorded as having less than $100 000 in debts at 30 June 2012. Many of these businesses were relatively small.

Much of the aggregate broadacre and dairy sector debt is held by a relatively small proportion of mostly larger farms. Around 70 per cent of aggregate broadacre sector debt, at 30 June 2012, was held by just 12 per cent of farms. On average, these were much larger farm businesses that in aggregate produced around 45 per cent of the total value of broadacre farm production in 2010–11 (ABARES 2013). Similarly, around 45 per cent of aggregate dairy sector debt, at 30 June 2012, was held by 10 per cent of farms.

Distribution of broadacre farms, by farm business debt and equity ratio at 30 June 2012 pa Percentage of farmsDistributionofbroadacrefarms,byfarmbusinessdebtandequityratioat30June2012paPerce

New South Western South Northern

<$100 000 % 52 (7) 63 (6) 56 (6) 41 (16) 50 (10) 70 (10) 21 (50) 54 (4)$100 000 and <$250 000 % 16 (19) 11 (25) 11 (21) 11 (44) 10 (38) 6 (56) 16 (74) 13 (12)$250 000 and <$500 000 % 10 (20) 11 (18) 7 (22) 12 (28) 13 (34) 6 (85) 10 (80) 10 (11)$500 000 and <$1m % 10 (19) 7 (18) 12 (18) 8 (38) 15 (21) 11 (32) 20 (61) 10 (10)$1m and <$2m % 8 (20) 6 (43) 7 (17) 15 (22) 9 (27) 5 (31) 8 (60) 8 (11)

AustraliaTasmaniaNew South

Wales Victoria QueenslandWestern Australia

South Australia

Northern Territory

Farm business debt b

$1m and <$2m % 8 (20) 6 (43) 7 (17) 15 (22) 9 (27) 5 (31) 8 (60) 8 (11)≥$2m % 5 (13) 3 (21) 6 (13) 13 (14) 4 (30) 2 (29) 24 (19) 5 (7)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm debt at 30 June $’000 446 (9) 291 (20) 568 (10) 886 (10) 391 (12) 255 (15) 1 746 (27) 480 (5)

≥90 per cent % 68 (5) 74 (5) 72 (4) 52 (13) 63 (8) 84 (4) 49 (26) 68 (3)80 and <90 per cent % 14 (18) 11 (25) 12 (15) 21 (28) 18 (20) 10 (34) 34 (37) 14 (10)70 and <80 per cent % 7 (21) 8 (27) 8 (19) 12 (23) 11 (28) 4 (33) 10 (43) 9 (11)

Farm business equity ratio bc

70 and <80 per cent % 7 (21) 8 (27) 8 (19) 12 (23) 11 (28) 4 (33) 10 (43) 9 (11)60 and <70 per cent % 5 (26) 5 (26) 4 (27) 8 (26) 6 (41) 2 (62) 1 (80) 5 (13)<60 per cent % 6 (31) 3 (43) 4 (34) 7 (42) 2 (79) 1 (52) 6 (69) 4 (18)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm business equity ratio at 30 June % 88 (2) 91 (1) 89 (1) 83 (2) 90 (2) 95 (1) 77 (6) 88 (1)

Population of farms no. 19 194 11 427 9 775 6 434 6 995 1 122 202 55 149

l d d b f l f b d f d f d l d b l l d ba Excludes debt for large corporate farms. b Average per responding farm. c Equity ratio defined as total owned business capital at 30 June less debt as a percentage of total owned business capital. p ABARES preliminary estimates.Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided.

117



In some regions farm equity is estimated to have fallen significantly over the three years to June 2012, mainly due to reductions in reported land values, particularly in regions where land values had previously recorded large increases. These include pastoral regions of northern Australia and the eastern and northern wheat belts of Western Australia, south-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia. Access to further borrowing by some farms in these regions may have been restricted by lenders.

In 2011–12, 9 per cent of broadacre farms and 28 per cent of dairy farms were estimated to have equity ratios below 70 per cent. Equity ratios are typically lower for larger farms because they are generally able to service larger debts.

Distribution of dairy farms, by farm business debt and equity ratio at 30 June 2012 pa Percentage of farms Distributionofdairyfarm,byfarmbusinessdebtandequityratioat30June2012paP

New South Western South

<$100 000 % 30 (48) 18 (78) 49 (34) 43 (57) 14 (70) 0 (99) 21 (42)$100 000 and <$250 000 % 16 (77) 23 (67) 20 (84) 3 (95) 14 (84) 18 (81) 21 (49)$250 000 and <$500 000 % 16 (40) 18 (48) 8 (47) 8 (50) 15 (60) 0 (99) 15 (38)$500 000 and <$1m % 21 (24) 21 (19) 16 (30) 3 (90) 22 (33) 27 (47) 21 (14)$1m and <$2m % 10 (31) 15 (31) 7 (39) 25 (42) 20 (39) 12 (57) 14 (23)



South Australia


$1m and <$2m % 10 (31) 15 (31) 7 (39) 25 (42) 20 (39) 12 (57) 14 (23)≥$2m % 7 (23) 5 (40) 0 (77) 18 (34) 16 (24) 43 (19) 8 (18)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm debt at 30 June $’000 647 (11) 633 (11) 273 (15) 994 (21) 1 066 (13) 1 744 (12) 702 (7)

≥90 per cent % 37 (43) 35 (64) 78 (21) 61 (33) 22 (51) 18 (31) 38 (33)80 and <90 per cent % 38 (23) 23 (36) 10 (39) 16 (32) 26 (39) 4 (59) 22 (26)70 and <80 per cent % 5 (42) 15 (26) 6 (59) 11 (55) 17 (55) 7 (76) 12 (22)


70 and <80 per cent % 5 (42) 15 (26) 6 (59) 11 (55) 17 (55) 7 (76) 12 (22)60 and <70 per cent % 10 (51) 18 (44) 4 (64) 12 (75) 17 (42) 20 (41) 16 (34)<60 per cent % 11 (31) 10 (44) 3 (66) 0 18 (36) 51 (26) 12 (25)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm business equity % 83 (3) 79 (3) 92 (2) 91 (3) 75 (4) 65 (6) 80 (2) ratio at 30 June Population of farms no. 793 4 912 588 190 315 435 7 233

l d d b f l f b d f d f d l d b l la Excludes debt for large corporate farms. b Average per responding farm. c Equity ratio defined as total owned business capital at 30 June less debt as a percentage of total owned business capital. p ABARES preliminary estimates.Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided.

Distribution of broadacre farms, by farm business debt and equity ratio at 30 June 2012 pa Percentage of farmsDistributionofbroadacrefarms,byfarmbusinessdebtandequityratioat30June2012paPerce

New South Western South Northern

<$100 000 % 52 (7) 63 (6) 56 (6) 41 (16) 50 (10) 70 (10) 21 (50) 54 (4)$100 000 and <$250 000 % 16 (19) 11 (25) 11 (21) 11 (44) 10 (38) 6 (56) 16 (74) 13 (12)$250 000 and <$500 000 % 10 (20) 11 (18) 7 (22) 12 (28) 13 (34) 6 (85) 10 (80) 10 (11)$500 000 and <$1m % 10 (19) 7 (18) 12 (18) 8 (38) 15 (21) 11 (32) 20 (61) 10 (10)$1m and <$2m % 8 (20) 6 (43) 7 (17) 15 (22) 9 (27) 5 (31) 8 (60) 8 (11)



South Australia

Northern Territory


$1m and <$2m % 8 (20) 6 (43) 7 (17) 15 (22) 9 (27) 5 (31) 8 (60) 8 (11)≥$2m % 5 (13) 3 (21) 6 (13) 13 (14) 4 (30) 2 (29) 24 (19) 5 (7)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm debt at 30 June $’000 446 (9) 291 (20) 568 (10) 886 (10) 391 (12) 255 (15) 1 746 (27) 480 (5)

≥90 per cent % 68 (5) 74 (5) 72 (4) 52 (13) 63 (8) 84 (4) 49 (26) 68 (3)80 and <90 per cent % 14 (18) 11 (25) 12 (15) 21 (28) 18 (20) 10 (34) 34 (37) 14 (10)70 and <80 per cent % 7 (21) 8 (27) 8 (19) 12 (23) 11 (28) 4 (33) 10 (43) 9 (11)


70 and <80 per cent % 7 (21) 8 (27) 8 (19) 12 (23) 11 (28) 4 (33) 10 (43) 9 (11)60 and <70 per cent % 5 (26) 5 (26) 4 (27) 8 (26) 6 (41) 2 (62) 1 (80) 5 (13)<60 per cent % 6 (31) 3 (43) 4 (34) 7 (42) 2 (79) 1 (52) 6 (69) 4 (18)Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Average farm business equity ratio at 30 June % 88 (2) 91 (1) 89 (1) 83 (2) 90 (2) 95 (1) 77 (6) 88 (1)

Population of farms no. 19 194 11 427 9 775 6 434 6 995 1 122 202 55 149

l d d b f l f b d f d f d l d b l l d ba Excludes debt for large corporate farms. b Average per responding farm. c Equity ratio defined as total owned business capital at 30 June less debt as a percentage of total owned business capital. p ABARES preliminary estimates.Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided.

118



Trends in farm performance and debt servicingThe proportion of farm receipts needed to fund interest payments rose substantially in the decade ending 2009–10. This was due to a combination of large increases in farm debt and reduced farm receipts, as a result of extended drought conditions. Interest rate subsidies paid to farm businesses as drought assistance partially offset the increase in interest paid between 2001–02 and 2007–08.

Interest payments as a percentage of farm receipts, average per farm with debt, broadacre and dairy farms

y ABARES provisional estimate.Source: AAGIS

Broadacre

Dairy

%

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012–13y

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

Higher farm receipts in 2010–11 and 2011–12 and reductions in interest rates in 2011–12 resulted in a decline in the proportion of farm receipts needed to fund interest payments. In 2012–13 the ratio of interest payments to farm receipts is estimated to have reduced further—to around 9 per cent for broadacre farms and around 8 per cent for dairy farms. However, the proportion of farm receipts needed to meet interest payments remains high relative to the ratio in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The option to pay interest only is sometimes necessary for a farm business, and the discretion to pay larger amounts off the principal when the business is in a position to do so provides flexibility in repayment. ABARES data suggest the rate of debt repayment may not have been as high in recent years of improved incomes as it could have been. Producers need to reduce the principal as quickly as possible, lowering the overall cost of a loan by reducing the period for which the principal is outstanding. High average farm debt has resulted in the interest component of debt servicing remaining relatively high in recent years, despite the decline in interest rates. Widespread use of interest only loans may be contributing to maintenance of higher debt levels.

119



Farm cash income, broadacre and dairy farms

y ABARES provisional estimate.Source: AAGIS; AGIS

Broadacre

Dairy

2012–13$’000

30

60

90

120

150

180

2012–13y

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

Role of debt and equity in managing income variabilityFarm cash income is a measure of cash funds generated by a farm business for farm investment and consumption after paying all cash costs incurred in production, including interest payments but excluding capital payments and payments to family workers. It is a measure of short-term farm performance because it does not take into account depreciation or changes in farm inventories.

Average farm cash incomes for broadacre and dairy farms have been highly variable over the past decade. National data, such as in these figures, contain a mix of regions and industries that perform well financially in some years along with industries and regions that perform badly, depending on climatic and other factors. The results presented in these figures are therefore a smoothing of the income variability. At the individual farm level, farm cash income for Australian farms can be significantly more variable (Kimura, Antón & LeThi 2010).

Farm cash incomes are subject to wide fluctuations because of variability in factors such as the weather, pests and diseases, the prices producers receive and the cost of farm inputs. Management of these risks is crucial to the success of farm businesses in Australia.

Many research reports analyse the nature of the risks agricultural businesses face in Australia (Keogh 2012; Kingwell 2011; OECD 2011). Research indicates that Australian farm businesses face income variability equal to the highest observed in OECD countries. Australia has a variable climate, with drought a recurring feature. Climate scientists predict higher temperatures, even greater variability in rainfall and more frequent periods of very low rainfall (Productivity Commission 2009).

120



The importance of maintaining farm equityMechanisms farm businesses use to manage income variability include holding liquid financial assets (such as farm management deposits) and maintaining high farm equity. Australian farmers usually aim to maintain credit reserves to manage their financial risk. Credit reserves are unused borrowing capacity and generally reflect additional capital from lenders in the form of an open line of credit, such as an overdraft. Maintaining a credit reserve avoids costs associated with liquidating assets to meet cash demands and with reacquiring those assets once the adversity has passed.

Debt servicing and borrowing capacity, broadacre farms

%

y ABARES provisional estimate. Source: AAGIS

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Farms with greater than 15%interest to receipts ratio

Farms with equity ratio less than 70% and interest to receipts ratio greater than 15%

Farms with less than 70% equity ratio

2012–13y

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

Debt servicing and borrowing capacity, dairy farms

%

y ABARES provisional estimate. Source: ADIS

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Farms with greater than 15%interest to receipts ratio

Farms with equity ratio less than 70% and interest to receipts ratio greater than 15%

Farms with less than 70% equity ratio

2012–13y

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1998–99

121



Critical to maintaining credit reserves is a lender’s willingness to provide loans. Financial institutions lend to farm businesses on the basis of the equity (security) farmers have in their businesses and the capacity of the business to service increased debt long term. Most businesses that institutional lenders allow to operate with an equity ratio of less than 70 per cent are large operations that mostly generate high farm cash incomes or have access to substantial off-farm assets or income. It is therefore important that Australian broadacre farmers reduce debt where possible and build farm equity.

The proportion of broadacre farms with relatively low additional borrowing capacity (equity ratio of less than 70 per cent) and relatively high debt servicing commitments (interest to receipts ratio exceeding 15 per cent) peaked at 8 per cent in 2006–07 and reached 7 per cent in 2009–10 before declining slightly to an estimated 6 per cent in 2012–13. This is well below the highs of around 12 per cent recorded in the early 1990s, when interest rates were high and farm cash incomes low.

In 2008–09 and 2009–10 the proportion of dairy farms with relatively low additional borrowing capacity and relatively high debt servicing commitments increased, reaching an estimated 18 per cent in 2009–10 before declining slightly to an estimated 15 per cent in 2012–13. This is still relatively high, but is relative to the general increase in average farm size and capacity to service larger debts. Historically, the proportion of dairy farms with relatively low additional borrowing capacity and relatively high debt servicing commitments has been higher than that for broadacre farms.

The proportion of broadacre and dairy farms increasing debt declined significantly in 2010–11 and 2011–12 and is estimated to have done so again in 2012–13 to be closer to the record lows recorded in the early 2000s.

In 2012–13 the proportion of broadacre farms recording negative farm cash incomes, and therefore potentially needing to borrow additional working capital, is estimated to have increased by around 3 per cent. The largest increases are in southern Australia and in Western Australia.

Similarly, the proportion of dairy farms recording negative farm cash incomes in 2012–13, and therefore potentially needing to borrow additional working capital, is estimated to have increased by around 8 per cent.

Most Australian broadacre farms had relatively high farm equity and adequate farm cash income in 2012–13. However, lower farm cash income and the additional burden of reduced land values is putting increased financial pressure on some farms and industries.

122



ConclusionDebt is an important source of funds for farm investment and ongoing working capital for the broadacre and dairy industries, as more than 95 per cent of farms in these sectors are family owned and operated. Funding of family farms for expansion and improvement is limited to the funds available to the family, the profits the business can generate and the funds it can borrow.

Based on available data, increases in average debt per farm business over the past decade are due to rapid expansion in borrowing for on-farm investment and to finance ongoing working capital requirements together with slowing in the rate of principal repayment. Reductions in the rate of principal repayment in the past decade partly reflects increased variability in farm cash incomes with increased frequency of low farm cash incomes in this period. However, increased usage of interest only financing has also contributed to the slowdown.

Increased lending for land purchase fuelled a boom in land prices, raising farm equity and inducing lenders to provide more finance despite an increase in the variability of farm incomes and little apparent upward trend in farm profitability. In addition, debt servicing was supported by provision of interest subsidies to farmers in drought through the exceptional circumstances arrangements. For many regions this assistance was sustained for most of the decade.

Land prices have declined in some regions since 2007–08, particularly those regions with the largest increase in land values over the previous decade or a high incidence of low farm cash incomes. The reduction in land values has prompted financial institutions to tighten lending, restricting access of some farm businesses to further finance in these regions.

Improvement in financial performance, combined with reductions in new borrowing and lower interest rates, resulted in average farm business debt stabilising and to a small reduction in the proportion of farm receipts consumed to service interest payments.

Despite this general improvement in farm incomes, particularly in 2010–11 and 2011–12, the average proportion of farm receipts consumed by interest payment remains relatively high compared with those recorded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Of concern, over the medium and longer term, are erosion of farm equity through a decline in land values and slower rates of debt repayment resulting in individual farms continuing to carry relatively high debt. Family farms in Australia rely on high farm equity to provide the reserve capacity to borrow to meet cashflow needs during periods of reduced farm income. Prolonged reduction in equity and debt servicing capacity significantly raises the financial risk for these farm businesses.

Interpreting change in the equity and income position of farm businesses over time also requires consideration of changes in off-farm investment and earnings by farm families. A trend toward the increased contribution to farm household incomes from off-farm sources, particularly from wages and salaries earned off-farm by farmers’ partners, began more than two decades ago and has continued to grow.

High levels of investment in land, vehicles, machinery and farm infrastructure in recent years—substantially funded by borrowing—provide a basis from which to further increase farm productivity and improve financial performance over the medium term.

123



ReferencesABARES 2013, Australian farm survey results, 2010–11 to 2012–13, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications_remote_content/publication_series/farm_survey_results.

Keogh, M 2012, Including risk in enterprise decisions in Australia’s riskiest businesses, paper presented at the 56th Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society annual conference, 7–10 February, Fremantle, Western Australia.

Kimura, S, Antón, J & LeThi C 2010, ‘Farm level analysis of risk and risk management strategies and policies: cross country analysis’, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, no. 26, OECD Publishing, Paris, available at dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kmd6b5rl5kd-en.

Kingwell, RS 2011, Revenue volatility faced by Australian wheat farmers, paper presented at the 55th Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society annual conference, 8–11 February, Melbourne.

OECD 2011, Managing risk in agriculture: policy assessment and design, OECD Publishing, Paris available at dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264116146-en.

Productivity Commission 2009, Government drought support, Report no. 46, Final Inquiry Report, Melbourne, pp. 211–52.

125Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 127

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 127

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 128

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 129

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 135

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 132

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 133

3 Farm costs and returns 134

4 Volume of production indexes 136

5 Industry gross value added 136

6 Employment 137

7 All banks lending to business 137

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 138

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 138

10 Gross unit values of farm products 139

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 140

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 142

13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production 144

14 Crop areas and livestock numbers 146

15 Average farm yields 147

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports 148

17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) 150

18 Volume of forest products exports 152

19 Value of forest products exports (fob) 153

20 Volume of forest products imports 154

21 Value of forest products imports 155

22 Volume of fisheries products exports 156

23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 157

24 Volume of fisheries products imports 158

25 Value of fisheries products imports 159

26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 160

27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 161

28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 162

29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 163

30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 164

31 Food exports by level of transformation 165

32 Food imports by level of transformation 166

33 Total food exports, by selected destination 167

34 Total food imports, by selected source country 167

127

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8pt

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2010–11

Services 74%

Mining 10%

Manufacturing 7%

Building and construction 7%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 2%

Services 73%

Manufacturing 10%

Mining 9%

Building and construction 6%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 2%

2012–13

$1493.2b

2002–03

$1107.4b

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2012–13 dollars

Japan 37% Japan 19%

New Zealand 19% New Zealand 13%

China 9% China 23%

United States 4% United States 5%

Malaysia 2% Malaysia 4%

Taiwan 2% Taiwan 3%

Indonesia 3% Indonesia 3%

Other 24% Other 30%

China 8% China 20%

Japan 16% Japan 11%

ASEAN 17% ASEAN 19%

Other Asia 13% Other Asia 16%

European Union 27 11% European Union 27 7%

Middle East 7% Middle East 10%


Other 17% Other 10%

Japan 19% Japan 19%

China 8% China 32%

Korea, Rep. of 8% Korea, Rep. of 8%


New Zealand 7% New Zealand 3%

India 2% India 5%


Other 33% Other 23%

Japan 36% Japan 23%

Hong Kong 26% Hong Kong 32%

China 4% China 4%


Singapore 3% Singapore 3%

Taiwan 5% Taiwan 1%


Other 11% Other 33%

2012–132002–03

Total $151.4b $247.6b

$35.8b $37.9bAgriculture

$2.4b $1.2bFisheries

$2.7b $2.0bForestry


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2012–13 dollars

New Zealand 19%

China 6%

Indonesia 9%

United States 9%

Malaysia 4%

Germany 5%

Finland 6%

Other 42%

New Zealand 14%

China 22%

Indonesia 8%

United States 7%

Malaysia 5%

Germany 3%

Finland 5%

Other 36%

United States 17%

Japan 12%

China 10%

Germany 6%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 3%

New Zealand 4%

Other 44%

United States 11%

Japan 8%

China 19%

Germany 5%

Malaysia 3%

Singapore 6%

New Zealand 3%

Other 45%

China 4%

ASEAN 13%

Other Asia 5%

European Union 27 32%

New Zealand 17%

United States 14%

Other 15%

China 6%

ASEAN 18%

Other Asia 5%

European Union 27 26%

New Zealand 18%

United States 12%

Other 15%

2012–132002–03

Total $174.6b $236.8b

$8.1b $11.8bAgriculture

$5.4b $4.1b

$1.6b $1.6b

Forestry

FisheriesThailand 20%

New Zealand 16%

China 4%

Vietnam 6%

Malaysia 3%

United States 4%

Other 47%

Thailand 25%

New Zealand 13%

China 12%

Vietnam 10%

Malaysia 5%

United States 3%

Other 32%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2012–132002–03

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

50 100 150 200 250

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

200 400 600 1000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

100 200 300 400 500 600

500 1000 1500 2000 100 200 400300 500

300 600 900 1200 1500

200 400 600 800 1000 1200


Export markets


Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2012–132002–03

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

RussianFederation

RussianFederation

Indonesia

Taiwan

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Taiwan

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Japan

EuropeanUnion 27

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

20 40 60 80 120100 100 200 300 500400

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 27

Japan

Saudi Arabia

100 200 300 400 300 600 900 1200 1500

20 40 60 80 100 50 100 150 200 250 300


Export markets


Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity woodchips

kt

Value woodchips

$m

Quantity edible �sh

kt

Value edible �sh

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2012–132002–03

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

50 100 150 200 250

Japan

China

Taiwan

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

100 200

Japan

China

Taiwan

kt

50 100 150 200 250 300

3 6 9 12 15

2 4 6 8 10 300 400


Prices

TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Crops sectorCrops sector G iGrainsWinter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 170.8 140.4Winter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 170.8 140.4canola 142 2 114 2 141 1 133 1 140 8 127 4canola 142.2 114.2 141.1 133.1 140.8 127.4lupins 142 9 127 2 136 9 118 7 139 6 122 8lupins 142.9 127.2 136.9 118.7 139.6 122.8oats 158.3 116.9 143.2 147.7 177.3 155.9wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 164.1 163.1wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 164.1 163.1

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121 3 115 9 125 8 111 6 143 3 133 2

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121.3 115.9 125.8 111.6 143.3 133.2

T t l i 137 5 108 7 126 2 115 9 150 5 141 4Total grains a 137.5 108.7 126.2 115.9 150.5 141.4

Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 93.9 103.3Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 93.9 103.3Sugar 98 3 137 8 128 0 147 1 137 0 107 8Sugar 98.3 137.8 128.0 147.1 137.0 107.8H 219 0 181 5 151 1 128 4 136 1 149 7Hay 219.0 181.5 151.1 128.4 136.1 149.7Fruit 148.2 146.6 181.8 181.4 156.5 160.4Vegetables 152.9 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 177.1Vegetables 152.9 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 177.1Total crops sector 120.2 108.8 122.3 118.3 131.1 127.6Total crops sector 120.2 108.8 122.3 118.3 131.1 127.6

Li t k tLivestock sectorLivestock for slaughter

cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 173.3 156.4 160.7ivestock for slaughter cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 173.3 156.4 160.7

lambs b 204 3 218 7 255 4 250 8 192 1 218 4 lambs b 204.3 218.7 255.4 250.8 192.1 218.4sheep 216 8 343 3 438 0 390 3 210 2 264 7 sheep 216.8 343.3 438.0 390.3 210.2 264.7li h f t 213 4 248 4 304 6 343 7 247 6 273 5 live sheep for export 213.4 248.4 304.6 343.7 247.6 273.5p p

pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 136.5 143.7 pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 136.5 143.7poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 107.6 112.2 114.3 poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 107.6 112.2 114.3total 163 0 163 8 175 5 174 9 156 0 163 5 total 163.0 163.8 175.5 174.9 156.0 163.5

Livestock productsl 109 2 116 0 158 4 169 2 142 0 153 3

Livestock products wool 109.2 116.0 158.4 169.2 142.0 153.3 milk 142.3 125.2 144.8 140.9 130.7 154.1 milk eggs 108.6 105.5 104.2 104.1 107.4 108.5 eggs 108.6 105.5 104.2 104.1 107.4 108.5

total 127 6 120 0 144 6 146 0 132 3 148 7 total 127.6 120.0 144.6 146.0 132.3 148.7Store and breeding stock 161 9 168 3 194 0 199 5 169 3 177 9Store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 169.3 177.9T l li k 147 6 145 7 162 8 163 3 145 9 156 6Total livestock sector 147.6 145.7 162.8 163.3 145.9 156.6

Total prices received 131 8 124 7 139 7 137 5 138 0 140 5Total prices received 131.8 124.7 139.7 137.5 138.0 140.5

a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES










Prices

TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers and terms of trade Australia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

F ’ f d 88 5 88 6 96 4 93 4 95 3 96 3Farmers’ terms of trade a 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.4 95.3 96.3

Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesSeed fodder and livestock

f dd d f d t ff 168 0 145 8 121 0 115 6 127 2 121 9Seed, fodder and livestock

fodder and feedstuffs 168.0 145.8 121.0 115.6 127.2 121.9seed, seedlings and plants 120.7 109.4 120.0 116.5 128.1 125.7seed, seedlings and plants 0 09 0 0 6 5 8 5store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 169.3 177.9store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 169.3 177.9total 161 0 147 0 137 8 135 2 137 1 135 3total 161.0 147.0 137.8 135.2 137.1 135.3

Chemicals 136 7 116 2 110 4 112 6 110 3 112 5Chemicals 136.7 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 112.5El i i 121 5 142 1 158 9 176 8 180 8 184 8Electricity 121.5 142.1 158.9 176.8 180.8 184.8yFertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 158.2 158.2Fertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 158.2 158.2Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 210.3 212.4Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 210.3 212.4Total 164 0 146 4 146 1 149 3 148 6 149 6Total 164.0 146.4 146.1 149.3 148.6 149.6

bLabour 142.6 147.3 151.9 155.7 159.3 162.8

Marketing 137 2 134 0 144 8 154 1 151 3 155 4Marketing 137.2 134.0 144.8 154.1 151.3 155.4

O h dOverheadsInsurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 194.2Insurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 194.2Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 94.5Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 94.5Rates and taxes 141 6 144 9 149 4 153 0 156 4 159 9Rates and taxes 141.6 144.9 149.4 153.0 156.4 159.9Other overheads 137 2 140 6 144 9 148 4 151 8 155 1Other overheads 137.2 140.6 144.9 148.4 151.8 155.1

lTotal 126.6 124.3 133.7 129.9 118.9 117.2

Capital items 141 2 144 8 149 3 153 2 157 0 160 9Capital items 141.2 144.8 149.3 153.2 157.0 160.9

l i idTotal prices paid 148.9 140.8 144.8 147.2 144.8 146.0p pExcluding capital items 149 9 140 4 144 4 146 6 143 6 144 5Excluding capital items 149.9 140.4 144.4 146.6 143.6 144.5E l di it l d h d 156 7 144 9 147 1 151 3 151 0 152 8Excluding capital and overheads 156.7 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.0 152.8E l di d f dd dExcluding seed, fodder and

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.4 148.2g ,

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.4 148.2

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics








Costs and returns

TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

3 Farm costs and returns Australia3FarmcostsandreturnsAustraliait 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

CCosts Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 478 1 426 1 458Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 478 1 426 1 458fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 352 2 216 2 217fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 352 2 216 2 217fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 414 2 182 2 193fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 414 2 182 2 193

k i $marketing $m 3 733 3 814 3 841 4 011 3 715 3 933grepairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 930 4 008 4 292repairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 930 4 008 4 292seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 143 4 575 4 461seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 143 4 575 4 461other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 434 4 471 4 606other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 434 4 471 4 606total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 763 22 593 23 161total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 763 22 593 23 161

L b $ 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 245 4 282 4 368Labour $m 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 245 4 282 4 368Overheads

interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 386interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 386rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 549rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 549

Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 607 9 160 9 303Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 607 9 160 9 303

Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 369 31 753 32 464Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 369 31 753 32 464Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 326Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 326Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 441 36 952 37 789Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 441 36 952 37 789

Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 667 46 981 48 067 47 343 49 009Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 667 46 981 48 067 47 343 49 009

N d d iNet returns and production Net value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 207 10 466 10 626 10 390 11 220

pNet value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 207 10 466 10 626 10 390 11 220Real net value of farm production c $m 5 977 5 741 11 192 11 107 10 619 11 220Real net value of farm production c $m 5 977 5 741 11 192 11 107 10 619 11 220N t f h i d $ 5 865 9 999 15 410 15 698 15 589 16 546Net farm cash income d $m 5 865 9 999 15 410 15 698 15 589 16 546Real net farm cash income c $m 6 617 11 025 16 478 16 408 15 932 16 546Real net farm cash income c $

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2013–14 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimatesNote: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics







Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2010–11

2011–12

2008–09

2009–10

Othermerchandise

17%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

68%

Othermerchandise

15%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

71%

Mineralresources

71%

Rural a15%

Othermerchandise

14%

Services17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources59%

Services 16%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources59%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Services18%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

14%

Mineralresources56%

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments adjusted to include farm, �sheries and forestry products classi�ed as other merchandise by ABS.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2012–13

Mineralresources

69%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

15%

Services17%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources57%


Sectors

TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustralia5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13unit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Agriculture, forestry and fishingagriculture $m 21 858 26 172 25 605 27 726 29 893 28 186

Agriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture $m 21 858 26 172 25 605 27 726 29 893 28 186f t d fi hi $ 4 136 4 436 4 429 4 430 4 315 3 929 forestry and fishing $m 4 136 4 436 4 429 4 430 4 315 3 929y g

total $m 26 030 30 622 30 055 32 157 34 208 32 115 total $

Mining $m 119 661 123 310 133 015 131 109 138 953 151 179Mining $m 119 661 123 310 133 015 131 109 138 953 151 179Manufacturingf d b d l h l $

Manufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 23 294 22 556 24 205 24 085 22 886 22 814, g textile, clothing, footwear textile, clothing, footwear

and leather $m 10 486 9 386 7 331 6 855 6 707 6 538 and leather $m 10 486 9 386 7 331 6 855 6 707 6 538wood and paper products $m 7 486 6 909 7 191 7 092 7 000 7 151 wood and paper products $m 7 486 6 909 7 191 7 092 7 000 7 151i ti bli hi printing, publishing

and recorded media $m 5 161 4 319 4 133 4 125 3 839 4 173$ petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 19 190 17 259 17 903 17 913 18 012 17 792 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 19 190 17 259 17 903 17 913 18 012 17 792non‐metallic mineral products $m 5 212 5 172 5 073 4 971 4 621 4 556 non‐metallic mineral products $m 5 212 5 172 5 073 4 971 4 621 4 556metal products $m 22 965 22 660 21 296 22 203 22 354 21 154 metal products $m 22 965 22 660 21 296 22 203 22 354 21 154ma hiner and eq ipment $ 20 352 19 579 20 731 20 566 21 207 21 286 machinery and equipment $m 20 352 19 579 20 731 20 566 21 207 21 286

l $ total $m 113 034 107 250 107 760 107 808 106 628 105 462Building and construction $m 94 317 98 381 98 639 103 338 108 033 108 973Building and construction $m 94 317 98 381 98 639 103 338 108 033 108 973Electricity, gas and water supply $m 31 036 32 335 33 200 33 811 33 357 33 018Electricity, gas and water supply $m 31 036 32 335 33 200 33 811 33 357 33 018Taxes less subsidies on products $m 92 543 91 632 91 198 93 524 93 711 94 517Taxes less subsidies on products $m 92 543 91 632 91 198 93 524 93 711 94 517St ti ti l di $ 0 0 1 0 4 705 8 460Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 1 0 4 705 8 460

Gross domestic product $m 1 320 747 1 342 514 1 370 540 1 403 888 1 451 824 1 493 171Gross domestic product $m 1 320 747 1 342 514 1 370 540 1 403 888 1 451 824 1 493 171

a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2010–11. b ANZSIC 2006. Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, Canberra





TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 Volume of production indexes Australia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Farmd l d

FarmGrains and oilseeds index 116.1 116.6 139.9 158.6 132.8 138.8Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 127.5 130.9Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 127.5 130.9

Livestock slaughterings index 111 5 109 4 110 5 110 3 116 3 117 3Livestock slaughterings index 111.5 109.4 110.5 110.3 116.3 117.3T l li k i dTotal livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 101.0 104.5 105.2Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 116.6 118.6Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 116.6 118.6

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








Employment, banks

TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

STATISTICS

6 Employment Australia a b Australia6 Employment Australia a, b Australia 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000l f d f hAgriculture, forestry and fishing

agriculture 303 322 324 305 289 278g , y gagriculture 303 322 324 305 289 278forestry and logging 8 8 7 6 8 7forestry and logging 8 8 7 6 8 7

i l fi hi 14 9 11 12 11 10commercial fishing c 14 9 11 12 11 10support services 30 24 26 27 27 27support servicestotal 355 363 369 350 335 321total 355 363 369 350 335 321

Mining 146 170 173 204 249 266Mining 146 170 173 204 249 266Manufacturing

food beverages and tobacco 230 227 228 228 227 225Manufacturing

food, beverages and tobacco 230 227 228 228 227 225textiles clothing footweartextiles, clothing, footwear

d l th 50 48 46 44 39 40 and leather 50 48 46 44 39 40wood and paper product 70 68 64 56 55 54wood and paper productprinting, publishingprinting, publishingand recorded media 54 51 52 55 42 48 and recorded media 54 51 52 55 42 48

petroleum coalpetroleum, coald h i l d t 98 90 88 84 88 90 and chemical product 98 90 88 84 88 90p

non‐metallic mineral product 42 40 37 37 38 35non metallic mineral productmetal product 159 157 146 147 146 131metal product 159 157 146 147 146 131other manufacturing 360 348 343 334 319 331other manufacturing 360 348 343 334 319 331total 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 955 954total 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 955 954

Oth i d t i 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 750 9 881 10 022Other industries 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 750 9 881 10 022

Total 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563Total 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563

a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Canberra







TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2010–11 2011–12 2012–132010 11Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar

2011 12 2012 13Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar $b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l fAgriculture, forestry and fishing 60.2 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6g , y

and fishing 60.2 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6Mining 12 4 13 5 14 3 15 3 17 0 18 9 18 2 18 9Mining 12.4 13.5 14.3 15.3 17.0 18.9 18.2 18.9Manufacturing 39 1 41 0 40 8 43 7 42 5 41 0 39 8 39 7Manufacturing 39.1 41.0 40.8 43.7 42.5 41.0 39.8 39.7C t ti 30 1 29 3 28 8 29 2 30 3 29 1 27 8 28 0Construction 30.1 29.3 28.8 29.2 30.3 29.1 27.8 28.0Wholesale and retail trade,transport and storage 92.8 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0

Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 92.8 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0Finance and insurance 89 4 93 4 96 5 99 2 100 8 102 7 102 9 104 1Finance and insurance 89.4 93.4 96.5 99.2 100.8 102.7 102.9 104.1Oth 314 1 315 4 320 6 321 6 329 3 342 6 342 6 345 2Other 314.1 315.4 320.6 321.6 329.3 342.6 342.6 345.2

Total 638.0 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8 697.5Total 638.0 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8 697.5

a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8


Farm debt, world prices

TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia

STATISTICS

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mR l d btRural debtAll banks a 47 188 53 743 57 384 58 097 60 184 59 749All banks aOther government agencies b 1 286 1 409 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076Other government agencies b 1 286 1 409 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076Pastoral and other

fi i 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801Pastoral and other

finance companies 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801Large finance institutional debt c 53 066 60 278 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626Large finance institutional debt cDepositsF d iDepositsFarm management deposits 2 782 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532g pa Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9






TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

WorldWorldCCropsWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 305

pWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 305Corn b US$/t 190 160 254 281 312 235Corn b US$/t 190 160 254 281 312 235Rice c US$/t 609 532 518 588 549 538Rice c US$/t 609 532 518 588 549 538S b d US$/t 422 395 493 506 597 510Soybeans d US$/t 422 395 493 506 597 510Cotton e USc/lb 61.2 77.5 164.3 100.1 87.9 90.0Cotton e /Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 16.0Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 16.0

Li t k d tLivestock productsBeef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 438 445Beef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 438 445Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 100Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 100Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 3 850Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 3 850Ch j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 260Cheese j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 260Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 3 850Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 3 850

a US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US fob Gulf. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; Intercontinental Exchange; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture












Gross unit values

TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

10 Gross unit values of farm products a10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

C bCrops bpGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 272 224Winter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 272 224canola $/t 548 440 544 513 543 491canola $/t 548 440 544 513 543 491fi ld $/ 345 241 266 359 431 280field peas $/t 345 241 266 359 431 280plupins $/t 280 249 268 232 273 240lupins $/t 280 249 268 232 273 240oats $/t 216 160 196 202 242 213oats $/t 216 160 196 202 242 213triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 236 201triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 236 201wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 325 323wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 325 323

SSummer cropscorn (maize) $/t 283 268 259 251 293 276corn (maize) $/rice $/t 566 457 240 270 297 287rice $/t 566 457 240 270 297 287grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 243 225grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 243 225so beans $/t 551 551 501 472 434 430soybeans c $/t 551 551 501 472 434 430

$/sunflower seed c $/t 696 696 567 551 540 529sunflower seed c /

Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 199 228Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 199 228S ( t f hi ) $/ 32 44 38 43 43 34Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 32 44 38 43 43 34g ( g)Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 458 499 509Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 458 499 509

LivestockB f ttl /k 320 311 336 337 304 313

LivestockBeef cattle c/kg 320 311 336 337 304 313Lambs c/kg 415 444 519 509 390 443/ gPig c/kg 304 291 269 266 270 284Pig c/kg 304 291 269 266 270 284Poultry c/kg 215 204 197 193 201 205Poultry c/kg 215 204 197 193 201 205

Livestock productsW l /k 430 456 623 666 559 603

Livestock productsWool c/kg 430 456 623 666 559 603Milk c/L 42.5 37.4 43.2 42.1 39.0 46.0Milk c/ 5 3 3 39 0 6 0

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers,commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant.b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics











World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

FarmG iFarmGrainsWheat

production Mt 685 679 653 695 653 695Wheat

production Mt 685 679 653 695 653 695consumption Mt 645 653 657 696 673 694consumption Mt 645 653 657 696 673 694closing stocks Mt 172 199 194 194 174 175closing stocks Mt 172 199 194 194 174 175exports b Mt 137 128 126 145 140 147exports b

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 113 1 113 1 098 1 155 1 134 1 247

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 113 1 113 1 098 1 155 1 134 1 247

iconsumption Mt 1 080 1 103 1 130 1 155 1 146 1 216pclosing stocks Mt 195 197 165 166 152 182closing stocks Mt 195 197 165 166 152 182exports b Mt 124 143 125 149 119 147exports b Mt 124 143 125 149 119 147

Riced i

Riceproduction c Mt 448 440 449 465 469 476p Mt 448 440 449 465 469 476consumption c Mt 436 437 445 458 468 474consumption c Mt 436 437 445 458 468 474closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 107 109closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 107 109

t bdexports bd Mt 29 31 36 39 37 38

Oilseeds and vegetable oilsOil dOilseeds and vegetable oilsOilseeds

production Mt 399 447 460 445 469 487production Mt 399 447 460 445 469 487consumption Mt 403 424 447 464 464 477consumption Mt 403 424 447 464 464 477closing stocks Mt 58 76 84 66 70 81closing stocks Mt 58 76 84 66 70 81exports Mt 95 107 108 111 112 119e po s

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 149 157 159 167

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 149 157 159 167

i M 131 140 146 152 157 164consumption Mt 131 140 146 152 157 164pclosing stocks Mt 13 14 15 18 18 21closing stocks Mt 13 14 15 18 18 21exports Mt 56 58 60 63 66 68exports Mt 56 58 60 63 66 68

Vegetable protein mealsVegetable protein mealsproduction Mt 224 240 253 263 264 272productionconsumption Mt 224 234 247 258 265 271consumption Mt 224 234 247 258 265 271closing stocks Mt 6 8 10 12 11 12closing stocks Mt 6 8 10 12 11 12exports Mt 66 70 75 78 79 81p

Industrial cropsC ttIndustrial cropsCotton

production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 25production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 25consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 19 20closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 19 20exports Mt 7 8 8 10 10 8p

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 183 181

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 183 181

ti M 162 163 164 168 173 176consumption Mt 162 163 164 168 173 176pclosing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 74 79closing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 74 79exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 57exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 57

ContinuedContinued


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a co11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesacounit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Livestock productsLivestock products Meat deg

production Mt 250 257 259 265 269 272Meat deg

production Mt 250 257 259 265 269 272consumption Mt 247 254 255 261 265 269consumption Mt 247 254 255 261 265 269closing stocks Mt 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 6 2 4 2 5closing stocks Mt 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.5

t bexports b Mt 23.2 24.4 26.3 27.3 27.9 28.9Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 119 1 120 1 089 1 111 1 129Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 119 1 120 1 089 1 111 1 129consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127l i kclosing stocks j kt 65 55 45 24 25 35g j kt 65 55 45 24 25 35exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496

B tter dButter dgproduction kt 8 039 8 181 8 584 8 919 9 133 9 250productionconsumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 094 8 399 8 651 8 750consumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 094 8 399 8 651 8 750closing stocks kt 257 176 216 259 253 240closing stocks kt 257 176 216 259 253 240

k 8 3 36 2 3 93 820exports kt 813 736 724 773 793 820pSkim milk powder dgl

production kt 3 452 3 415 3 675 3 979 3 994 4 160Skim milk powder dgl

production kt 3 452 3 415 3 675 3 979 3 994 4 160consumption kt 2 920 3 000 3 190 3 439 3 449 3 610consumption kt 2 920 3 000 3 190 3 439 3 449 3 610closing stocks kclosing stocks kt 556 496 449 461 425 400exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 528 1 596 1 636 1 710exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 528 1 596 1 636 1 710

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra‐EU trade. cMilled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non‐fat dry milk. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters; United States Department of Agriculture














Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

barley kt 7 997 7 865 7 995 8 221 6 761 7 673canola kt 1 844 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 056 3 310chickpeas kt 443 487 513 673 818 669field peas kt 238 356 395 342 319 376lupins kt 708 823 808 982 459 459oats kt 1 160 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 048 1 196triticale kt 363 545 355 285 429 424wheat kt 21 420 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 079 24 467

cottonseed kt 466 547 1 269 1 694 1 403 1 400corn (maize) kt 376 328 357 451 496 412rice kt 61 197 723 919 1 166 907grain sorghum kt 2 692 1 508 1 935 2 239 1 721 2 020soybeans kt 80 60 30 86 92 70sunflower seed kt 55 41 43 47 44 42other oilseeds a kt 34 40 33 35 40 40

Total grains and oilseeds kt 37 935 37 699 45 352 50 567 40 930 43 465

Cotton lint kt 329 387 926 1 198 1 002 990Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 600Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 634 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 250Wine grapes kt 1 684 1 533 1 598 1 582 1 695 1 725

apples kt 295 264 300 289 295 300bananas kt 270 302 203 286 312 318oranges kt 348 391 291 390 360 380

carrots kt 264 267 225 319 319 322onions kt 284 260 331 347 310 300potatoes kt 1 179 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 290 1 292tomatoes kt 440 472 302 372 400 418

Cattle and calves ’000 8 583 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 457 8 700Sheep ’000 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 175 8 192 6 343Lambs ’000 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 122 19 603Pigs ’000 4 476 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 830

Cattle exported live b ’000 845 871 728 579 513 590Sheep exported live c ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 100

Beef and veal d kt 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 245 2 300Lamb d kt 416 413 391 419 457 427Mutton d kt 220 162 123 120 183 146Pig meat kt 321 331 342 351 356 362Chicken meat d kt 832 834 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 070Total kt 3 914 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 305

Continued

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliaCropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

LivestockSlaughterings

Live exports

Meat produced

Winter crops

Summer crops

Fruit

Vegetables


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12 Agricultural fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Livestock productsLivestock products Wool e kt 420 423 429 411 427 411Wool eMilk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 101 9 480 9 200 9 400Milk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 101 9 480 9 200 9 400Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 120Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 120Cheese kt 325 349 339 340 331 342Cheese kt 325 349 339 340 331 342C i k 10 8 5 5 5 4Casein kt 10 8 5 5 5 4Skim milk powder i kt 212 190 222 230 224 230Skim milk powder iWhole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 109 112Whole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 109 112Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 12Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 12

Forestry – logs harvested jTotal ’000 m3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 23 739 25 100Forestry logs harvested jTotal ’000 m3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 23 739 25 100

Fisheries k Tuna kt 13.7 11.0 9.1 10.1 10.5 10.7Fisheries k Tuna kt 13.7 11.0 9.1 10.1 10.5 10.7Salmonids l kt 30 0 32 0 36 8 44 0 47 0 49 3Salmonids l kt 30.0 32.0 36.8 44.0 47.0 49.3Other fish kt 115 7 120 7 112 0 112 6 113 7 112 8Other fish kt 115.7 120.7 112.0 112.6 113.7 112.8P kt 24 2 27 3 27 0 22 5 24 0 24 7Prawns kt 24.2 27.3 27.0 22.5 24.0 24.7Rocklobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 8.7 9.3 9.3Rocklobster m Abalone kt 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9Abalone kt 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9Scallops kt 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.3 3.0 4.0Scallops kt 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.3 3.0 4.0Oysters kt 14 2 14 9 13 9 15 7 15 1 15 2Oysters kt 14.2 14.9 13.9 15.7 15.1 15.2Other moll scs kt 6 6 6 4 6 6 7 5 6 5 6 6Other molluscs kt 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.5 6.5 6.6Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1Ot e c ustacea sa Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake.h Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Liveweight. l Includes salmon and trout production.m Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake.h Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Liveweight. l Includes salmon and trout production.m Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries
















Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley 1 850 1 356 1 729 1 723 1 838 1 716canola 1 011 840 1 283 1 759 2 202 1 626chickpeas 199 211 207 308 317 208field peas 82 86 105 123 138 105lupins 198 205 216 228 125 110oats 251 186 221 255 254 255triticale 93 120 65 50 101 85wheat 6 021 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 165 7 891

maize 106 88 92 113 146 114rice 34 90 174 248 347 261grain sorghum 553 296 412 423 417 455soybeans 44 33 15 41 40 30sunflower seed 38 29 24 26 24 22other oilseeds a 28 37 30 33 37 38

Total grains and oilseeds 10 778 8 665 12 138 12 503 13 627 13 324

Cotton lint and cottonseed b 693 828 2 087 2 889 2 048 2 226Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 021 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 321 1 027Wine grapes 887 709 712 725 846 878Total industrial crops 2 601 2 919 3 834 4 827 4 214 4 131

Table and dried grapes 286 273 308 308 307 296Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 871 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 273 3 450Vegetables 3 012 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 600 3 710Other horticulture 1 556 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 414 1 549Total horticulture 7 725 7 895 8 265 7 968 8 594 9 005Other crops nei c 1 665 1 660 1 706 1 550 1 185 1 205

Total crops 22 769 21 138 25 943 26 848 27 621 27 665Continued

13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustralia

CropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Winter crops

Summer crops


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia continued

STATISTICS

13 Gross value of farm fisheries and forestry production Australia continued13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustraliacontinued2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mLi t kLivestockl hSlaughteringsCattle and calves d 6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 6 833 7 190

g gCattle and calves d 6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 6 833 7 190Sheep e 428 499 484 419 345 347Sheep e 428 499 484 419 345 347Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 782 1 894Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 782 1 894Pi 976 965 919 934 962 1 030Pigs 976 965 919 934 962 1 030gPoultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 199 2 300Poultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 199 2 300Live exportsC ttl t d li h 646 701 660 651 589 659Live exportsCattle exported live h 646 701 660 651 589 659Sheep exported live h 340 298 348 345 194 225Sheep exported live hTotal livestock i 12 834 12 722 13 795 13 836 13 065 13 821Total livestock i 12 834 12 722 13 795 13 836 13 065 13 821

Livestock productsLivestock products Wool j 1 806 1 928 2 673 2 734 2 386 2 497Wool j Milk k 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 588 4 324Milk k 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 588 4 324Eggs 447 428 572 583 595 610Eggs 447 428 572 583 595 610Honey and beeswax 86 80 66 79 88 92Honey and beeswax 86 80 66 79 88 92

Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 383 6 657 7 523Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 383 6 657 7 523

T l fTotal farm 41 929 39 667 46 981 48 067 47 343 49 009

Forestry products lTotal 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 575Forestry products lTotal 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 575

Fisheries products mTuna 187 125 139 172 175 170Fisheries products mTuna 187 125 139 172 175 170Salmonids nSalmonids n 326 369 427 513 539 564O h fi hOther fish o 463 464 428 456 450 441 463 464 428 456 450 441Prawns 290 325 306 266 312 321Prawns 290 325 306 266 312 321Rocklobster q 415 381 390 384 421 433Rocklobster q 415 381 390 384 421 433Abalone 189 173 178 170 172 185Abalone 189 173 178 170 172 185S llScallops 26 23 22 8 9 13Oysters 93 101 97 107 107 109Oys e s 93 101 97 107 107 109Pearls r 90 105 120 102 93 104Pearls r 90 105 120 102 93 104Other molluscs t 49 32 31 34 33 34Other molluscs t 49 32 31 34 33 34Other crustaceans 66 65 65 78 69 71Other crustaceans 66 65 65 78 69 71Total fish 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 409 2 474ota sa Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. cMainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered.e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. kMilk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood.m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10.s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. cMainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered.e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. kMilk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood.m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10.s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics
















Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

14 Crop areas and livestock numbers Australia14CropareasandlivestocknumbersAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Crop areasCrop areasi d il dGrains and oilseeds

Winter cropsbarley ’000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 680 3 747

Winter cropsbarley 000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 680 3 747canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 2 988 2 405canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 2 988 2 405hi k ’000 h 338 429 653 456 574 508chickpeas ’000 ha 338 429 653 456 574 508f ldfield peas ’000 ha 300 285 318 249 281 256plupins ’000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 387lupins 000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 387oats ’000 ha 870 850 826 731 668 773oats 000 ha 870 850 826 731 668 773triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 245triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 245wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 13 243 13 712wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 13 243 13 712

SSummer cropsmaize ’000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 70

pmaize 000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 70rice ’000 ha 7 19 76 103 114 101rice 000 ha 7 19 76 103 114 101grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 565 634grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 565 634soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 41 34soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 41 34

fl d ’000 h 52 27 37 40 30 35sunflower seed ’000 ha 52 27 37 40 30 35other oilseeds a ’000 ha 20 16 19 18 17 17other oilseeds a

Total grains and oilseeds ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 876 23 792Total grains and oilseeds 000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 876 23 792

Industrial cropsC ’ hIndustrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 164 208 590 600 442 434Sugar cane b ’000 ha 391 389 334 370 380 388Sugar cane b 000 ha 391 389 334 370 380 388Winegrapes e ’000 ha 157 152 154 145 146 147Winegrapes e 000 ha 157 152 154 145 146 147

Livestock numbers cCattleLivestock numbers c

beef million 25 29 24 01 25 94 25 69 25 30 25 10Cattle

beef million 25.29 24.01 25.94 25.69 25.30 25.10dairy million 2 61 2 54 2 57 2 73 2 72 2 72dairy million 2.61 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.72 2.72milking herd d illi 1 68 1 60 1 59 1 70 1 69 1 70 milking herd d million 1.68 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.70

total million 27.91 26.55 28.51 28.42 28.02 27.82Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 74.4Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 74.4Pigs million 2 30 2 29 2 29 2 14 2 12 2 15Pigs million 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.12 2.15

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 Average farm yields Australia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

CropsCropsG i d il dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 1.84 2.05Winter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 1.84 2.05canola t/ha 1 09 1 13 1 14 1 39 1 36 1 38canola t/ha 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.36 1.38chickpeas t/ha 1 31 1 14 0 79 1 48 1 43 1 32chickpeas t/ha 1.31 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.43 1.32fi ld /hfield peas t/ha 0.79 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.47plupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.19lupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.19oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.57 1.55oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.57 1.55triticale t/ha 1 12 1 56 1 90 1 97 1 66 1 73triticale t/ha 1.12 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.66 1.73wheat t/ha 1 58 1 57 2 03 2 15 1 67 1 78wheat t/ha 1.58 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.67 1.78

SSummer cropsmaize t/ha 5.82 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.13 5.88maize /rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.24 8.98rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.24 8.98grain sorghum t/ha 3 51 3 03 3 06 3 40 3 05 3 19grain sorghum t/ha 3.51 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.05 3.19soybeans t/ha 1 89 1 90 1 71 2 26 2 23 2 06soybeans t/ha 1.89 1.90 1.71 2.26 2.23 2.06

fl d t/h 1 07 1 54 1 14 1 17 1 46 1 20sunflower seed t/ha 1.07 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.46 1.20

Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2 01 1 86 1 57 2 00 2 27 2 28Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2.01 1.86 1.57 2.00 2.27 2.28Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 80 80 82 76 80 79Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 80 80 82 76 80 79Wi /h 10 10 1 10 4 10 9 11 6 11Winegrapes t/ha 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.6 11.7g pLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4 29 4 26 4 34 4 19 4 22 4 19LivestockWool a kg/sheep 4.29 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.22 4.19Wh l ilk L/ 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 444 5 546Whole milk L/cow 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 444 5 546a Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia a

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

barley b kt 3 898 4 234 4 625 6 568 5 163 5 151canola kt 973 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 488 2 562chickpeas kt 467 459 409 653 853 541lupins kt 157 377 289 316 453 132oats (unprepared) kt 196 216 127 163 61 159peas c kt 118 163 254 248 208 220wheat d kt 13 410 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 270 19 179

cottonseed kt 37 106 268 654 754 670maize kt 69 15 12 68 134 104rice kt 106 54 174 538 638 588grain sorghum kt 1 368 487 553 1 112 1 291 766other oilseeds e kt 10 13 7 6 10 8

Total grains and oilseeds kt 20 809 21 088 26 620 35 674 34 323 30 080

Raw cotton g kt 260 395 505 994 1 306 992Sugar kt 3 268 3 506 2 735 2 572 2 996 2 999Wine ML 751 777 727 713 698 735

Beef and veal hi kt 968 899 937 948 1 014 1 070Live cattle j ’000 845 871 728 579 513 590Lamb h kt 156 157 157 174 201 179Live sheep k ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 100Mutton h kt 146 111 86 89 144 118Pig meat h kt 32 30 31 29 26 27Poultry meat h kt 37 28 31 38 32 38

Greasy ls kt 314 308 335 301 321 307Semi‐processed kt (gr eq) 62 49 44 37 34 33Skins kt (gr eq) 70 71 65 67 87 83Total ks kt (gr eq) 445 428 444 405 442 423

Butter m kt 70 74 56 49 54 49Cheese kt 146 168 163 161 174 176Casein kt 8 10 5 4 4 4Skim milk powder kt 162 126 155 141 147 152Whole milk powder kt 116 91 108 102 87 89

Continued

Dairy products

Winter crops

Summer crops

16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaaFarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Meat and live animals

Wool


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia a continued

STATISTICS

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia a continued16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Fi h i d tFisheries productsTuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.4Tuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.4Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 4.7Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 4.7Other fish kt 7 5 7 1 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 5Other fish kt 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 6.5P

F k 4 7 4 5 6 4 5 3 3 9 4 1Prawns n

Frozen kt 4.7 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.9 4.1Rocklobsteroc obs e

Fresh, chilled, frozenor cooked kt 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9 7 8 7 9

Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked kt 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.9

AbaloneLi f h hill d kt 1 9 1 8 1 7 1 6 1 4 1 5

AbaloneLive, fresh or chilled kt 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5Frozen or cooked kt 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7Fro en or cookedPrepared or preserved kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8Prepared or preserved kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8

Scallops o kt 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 6Scallops o kt 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the volume of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. i Includes meat loaf. j Excludes breeding stock. k Includes breeding stock.l ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. m Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. n Excludes volume of other prawn products. o Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade














Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia a

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley b 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 626 1 505canola 595 583 866 1 344 2 094 1 412chickpeas 275 255 213 384 534 335lupins 61 115 89 86 154 44oats 64 53 37 47 20 46peas c 62 60 85 93 89 78wheat d 5 028 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 533

cottonseed 19 46 85 195 219 191corn (maize) 13 8 6 24 50 33rice 143 59 154 458 521 463grain sorghum 405 116 146 299 364 216other oilseeds e 27 24 14 10 13 13

Total grains and oilseeds 8 015 6 102 8 505 11 192 12 460 10 868

Raw cotton g 500 755 1 367 2 736 2 693 2 263Sugar 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 403 1 267Wine 2 428 2 164 1 957 1 862 1 821 1 960Total industrial crops 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 154 5 916 5 490

Fruit 683 585 456 505 634 639Tree nuts 233 212 211 240 347 316Vegetables 487 542 607 712 678 682Nursery 29 23 20 15 12 20Other horticulture h 280 274 293 258 224 298Total horticulture 1 712 1 637 1 588 1 729 1 895 1 955Other crops and crop products 2 368 2 346 2 461 2 517 2 740 2 843Total crops 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 592 23 012 21 156

Beef and veal 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 864 5 150Live cattle i 538 550 499 412 339 389Lamb 925 916 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 116Live sheep j 340 298 348 345 194 225Mutton 482 433 404 362 478 522Pig meat 124 109 106 100 81 83Poultry meat 43 36 38 45 43 50Total meat and live animals 7 309 6 294 6 749 6 791 7 085 7 535

Greasy k 1 729 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 255 2 238Semi‐processed 281 238 251 242 210 206Skins 312 291 426 433 398 383Total k 2 322 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 862 2 826

Continued

17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australiaa

Meat and live animals

Wool

Winter crops

Summer crops

FarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia a continued

STATISTICS

17 Value of agricultural fisheries and forestry exports Australia a continued17Valueofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexportsAustraliaacontinued2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mD i dDairy productsButter 232 211 252 201 180 195

y pButter 232 211 252 201 180 195Cheese 796 715 731 751 784 909Cheese 796 715 731 751 784 909Casein 107 88 53 48 46 49Casein 107 88 53 48 46 49Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 467 560Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 467 560Wh l ilk dWhole milk powder 475 296 402 378 312 368pOther dairy products 520 427 404 439 440 482Other dairy products 520 427 404 439 440 482Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 229 2 562Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 229 2 562Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 764 3 149Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 764 3 149

Total livestock exports 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 940 16 072pTotal farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 327 37 952 37 228Total farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 327 37 952 37 228

Forest productsT l f d 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042 2 164Forest productsTotal forest products 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042 2 164pFisheries productsTuna 177 118 131 163 163 160Fisheries productsTuna 177 118 131 163 163 160S l id 47 30 54 42 25 37Salmonids 47 30 54 42 25 37h f hOther fish 109 110 101 85 70 85

Prawns lFrozen 81 60 77 65 51 62

Prawns lFrozen 81 60 77 65 51 62

RocklobsterFresh chilled frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 447 466

RocklobsterFresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 447 466

Ab lAbaloneLive, fresh or chilled 88 100 88 81 79 82Live, fresh or chilled 88 100 88 81 79 82Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 55 58Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 55 58Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 52 53Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 52 53

S ll 33 30 15 15 11 13Scallops m 33 30 15 15 11 13lPearls 366 244 241 207 152 170

Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 69 61Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 69 61Total fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 245Total fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 245

l lTotal rural exports n 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 782 41 168 40 638a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. n Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra

pa ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. n Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. n Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra















Forest exports

TABLE 18 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

1818 Volume of forestry product exports Australia18VolumeofforestryproductexportsAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 sunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

QuantityQuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 1 045 986 1 377 1 638 1 806 1 516Roundwood 000 mSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 258 283 322 265 198 207Sawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 258 283 322 265 198 207S ft d d d 3 23 18 13 13 13 3Softwood dressed ’000 m3 23 18 13 13 13 3Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 40 40 37 39 26 20Hardwood roughsawn 000 m 40 40 37 39 26 20Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 17 14 16 30 15 7Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 17 14 16 30 15 7Total ’000 3 338 355 387 348 252 237Total ’000 m3 338 355 387 348 252 237

R il l 3 11 9 9 8 8 8Railway sleepers ’000 m3 11 9 9 8 8 8y p 000 mWood‐based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 35 86 90 119 106 52Wood based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 35 86 90 119 106 52Plywood ’000 3 15 53 24 7 18 36Plywood ’000 m3 15 53 24 7 18 36

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 6 17 9 5 4 3000 mHardboard b ’000 m3 0 2 1 2 2 2Hardboard b 000 m 0 2 1 2 2 2Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 204 181 130 115 79 52Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 204 181 130 115 79 52S ftb d d th fib b d 3 14 8 2 5 5 1Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14 8 2 5 5 1Total ’000 m3 274 345 256 253 214 147Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardN i kNewsprint kt 5 2 6 19 30 72pPrinting and writing kt 119 112 146 84 132 139Printing and writing kt 119 112 146 84 132 139Household and sanitary kt 37 38 31 39 26 12Household and sanitary kt 37 38 31 39 26 12Packaging and industrial kt 630 617 708 887 933 906Packaging and industrial kt 630 617 708 887 933 906Total kt 790 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 127

Recovered paper kt 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506Recovered paper kt 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506Pulp kt 21 22 18 31 1 0Pulp kt 21 22 18 31 1 0W d hi dWoodchips cd kt 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 806p

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia






Forest exports

TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia


19 l f f d (f b)19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 105 101 138 198 175 154RoundwoodSawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 63 70 76 67 55 61Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 63 70 76 67 55 61S ft d d d 11 9 7 5 3 2Softwoods dressed 11 9 7 5 3 2Hardwood roughsawn 38 37 33 34 23 20Hardwood roughsawn 38 37 33 34 23 20Hardwood dressed 8 9 10 10 7 6Hardwood dressed 8 9 10 10 7 6Total 120 125 125 115 88 90Total 120 125 125 115 88 90il lRailway sleepers 3 4 2 3 3 3y p

Miscellaneous forest products a 56 51 59 65 59 57Miscellaneous forest products a 56 51 59 65 59 57Wood‐based panels

Veneers 19 36 44 52 51 24Wood‐based panels

Veneers 19 36 44 52 51 24Plywood 9 4 3 2 2 4yParticleboard 4 7 3 2 1 1Particleboard 4 7 3 2 1 1Hardboard b 0 1 1 2 2 2Hardboard b 0 1 1 2 2 2M di d it fib b d 76 52 45 39 26 19Medium density fibreboard c 76 52 45 39 26 19ySoftboard and other fibreboards 2 1 1 1 1 0Softboard and other fibreboards 2 1 1 1 1 0Total 109 101 97 98 83 51Total 109 101 97 98 83 51

Paper and paperboardN i

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 3 2 6 13 15 36pPrinting and writing 133 128 143 88 120 117Printing and writing 133 128 143 88 120 117Household and sanitary 106 111 97 94 64 33Household and sanitary 106 111 97 94 64 33Packaging and industrial 395 364 404 552 518 526Packaging and industrial 395 364 404 552 518 526Total 635 606 649 747 717 712

Paper manufactures 103 106 102 112 134 134Paper manufactures 103 106 102 112 134 134Recovered paper 252 235 228 240 240 230Recovered paper 252 235 228 240 240 230P l 15 18 13 11 1 0Pulp 15 18 13 11 1 0Woodchips 1 072 997 856 884 729 611WoodchipsTotal 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042Total 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia









Forest imports

TABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia


20 l f f d20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustralia20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 sunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

Quantityd d 3

QuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3000 mSawnwood aSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 340 2 255 6 292 6 290 1 239 4 246 6Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1 239.4 246.6Softwood dressed ’ 3 321 2 278 8 367 3 468 2 469 7 442 7Softwood dressed ’000 m3 321.2 278.8 367.3 468.2 469.7 442.7Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 59.0 50.5 42.8 42.6 45.9 41.3g 000 mHardwood dressed ’000 m3 63.5 43.5 45.4 45.4 36.1 28.4Hardwood dressed 000 m 63.5 43.5 45.4 45.4 36.1 28.4Total ’000 m3 783 9 628 4 748 1 846 3 791 1 759 0Total ’000 m3 783.9 628.4 748.1 846.3 791.1 759.0

Wood‐based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 31 5 21 4 15 4 17 4 14 7 12 6

Wood based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 31.5 21.4 15.4 17.4 14.7 12.6Plywood ’000 3 236 6 199 1 227 7 277 6 292 8 278 7Plywood ’000 m3 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6 292.8 278.7

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 99.6 68.7 64.2 71.6 67.8 64.6000 mHardboard ’000 m3 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1 59.9Hardboard 000 m 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1 59.9Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 68 8 88 3 69 9 58 0 95 2 79 6Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 68.8 88.3 69.9 58.0 95.2 79.6S ftb d d th fib b d ’ 3 14 3 10 6 6 2 6 5 7 1 5 6Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14.3 10.6 6.2 6.5 7.1 5.6Total ’000 m3 482.8 411.7 416.4 479.6 546.6 501.0Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardN i k

Paper and paperboardNewsprint kt 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5 121.1 84.7pPrinting and writing kt 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9 1 154.6Printing and writing kt 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9 1 154.6Household and sanitary kt 81 1 82 0 101 1 113 8 117 7 158 5Household and sanitary kt 81.1 82.0 101.1 113.8 117.7 158.5Packaging and industrial kt 303 1 254 0 285 3 313 8 333 1 386 3Packaging and industrial kt 303.1 254.0 285.3 313.8 333.1 386.3Total kt 1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1 1 745.8 1 784.1

Recovered paper kt 10 2 3 0 3 4 2 0 2 6 3 7Recovered paper kt 10.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 2.6 3.7P l k 388 7 344 7 265 0 233 2 256 1 262 5Pulp kt 388.7 344.7 265.0 233.2 256.1 262.5pWoodchips kt 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2Woodchips kt 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2

a Excludes railway sleepers. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICSTATISTIC

21 l f f d21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 1 1 0 1 1 1Roundwood 0Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 186 134 140 135 105 100Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 186 134 140 135 105 100S ft d d d 191 168 200 248 248 246Softwood dressed 191 168 200 248 248 246Hardwood roughsawn 56 49 39 40 44 41Hardwood roughsawn 56 49 39 40 44 41Hardwood dressed 58 55 50 50 51 35Hardwood dressed 58 55 50 50 51 35Total 492 405 429 473 448 423Total 492 405 429 473 448 423

Miscellaneous forest products a 583 651 603 688 741 734Miscellaneous forest products a 583 651 603 688 741 734Wood‐based panels

V 33 28 22 21 21 19Wood‐based panels

Veneers 33 28 22 21 21 19Plywood 153 145 138 170 183 184Plywood 153 145 138 170 183 184Particleboard 34 27 20 21 26 22Particleboard 34 27 20 21 26 22Hardboard 28 26 30 40 54 48Hardboard 28 26 30 40 54 48M di d i fib b dMedium density fibreboard 33 41 37 34 36 32ySoftboard and other fibreboards 3 4 3 3 3 2Softboard and other fibreboards 3 4 3 3 3 2Total 284 271 250 289 323 307Total 284 271 250 289 323 307

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 185 173 158 176 91 58p p pNewsprint 185 173 158 176 91 58Printing and writing 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151Printing and writing 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151H h ld d it 137 154 164 185 187 244Household and sanitary 137 154 164 185 187 244yPackaging and industrial 470 481 499 515 543 590Packaging and industrial 470 481 499 515 543 590Total 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043Total 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043

Paper manufactures b 513 590 563 557 486 446Paper manufactures b 513 590 563 557 486 446dRecovered paper 2 1 1 0 1 1p p

Pulp 285 263 178 180 164 154Pulp 285 263 178 180 164 154Woodchips 2 2 1 2 2 3Woodchips 2 2 1 2 2 3T t l 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 112Total 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 112

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. s ABARES estimate. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.



a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. s ABARES estimate. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. s ABARES estimate. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Fisheries exports

TABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia22Volumeoffisheriesproductsexports‐Australia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

kt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFish

Li 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8Live 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8Tuna 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9Tuna 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9Salmonids 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6Salmonids 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6Swordfish 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5Swordfish 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Whi iWhiting 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4gOther fish 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7Other fish 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7

Total fish 23 4 26 8 21 7 22 7 22 0 17 8Total fish 23.4 26.8 21.7 22.7 22.0 17.8

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 9 5 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9 7 8

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 9.5 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8Prawns 4 9 4 8 4 7 6 4 5 4 3 9Prawns 4.9 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9Ab lAbalone 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8Scallops 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4Scallops 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4Crabs 1 4 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 8 0 4Crabs 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4Other crustaceans and molluscs 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 7 2 1Other crustaceans and molluscs 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1

Total crustaceans and molluscs 21.6 21.2 19.2 19.6 18.4 17.5

T t l dibl 45 0 48 0 40 9 42 4 40 5 35 3Total edible 45.0 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3

a Includes prepared and preserved. s ABARES estimate. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. s ABARES estimate. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. s ABARES estimate. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. s ABARES estimate. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. s ABARES estimate. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia


2323 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) ‐ Australia23Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)‐Australia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mEdiblEdible FishFish

Live 42 8 46 5 40 4 33 4 32 0 30 7Live 42.8 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0 30.7Tuna 206 2 176 8 118 5 131 4 162 7 162 6Tuna 206.2 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7 162.6Salmonids 21.9 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8 25.4Swordfish 2.3 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9Swordfish 2.3 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9Whiting 3 0 3 4 3 4 5 0 2 5 1 4Whiting 3.0 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.5 1.4Oth fi h 47 7 55 7 61 6 58 1 46 2 34 2Other fish 47.7 55.7 61.6 58.1 46.2 34.2

Total fish 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.1Total fish 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.1

Cr staceans and moll scsCrustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3Rocklobster 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3Prawns 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8Prawns 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8Abalone 217 2 208 2 216 4 212 0 197 3 185 8Abalone 217.2 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3 185.8S ll 27 8 33 3 29 5 15 4 15 3 10 8Scallops 27.8 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3 10.8Crabs 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2Crabs 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2Other crustaceans and molluscs 10 6 9 7 8 5 16 3 34 4 40 3Other crustaceans and molluscs 10.6 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4 40.3

Total crustaceans and molluscs 740 6 811 4 729 3 703 6 711 3 744 1Total crustaceans and molluscs 740.6 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3 744.1

Total edible 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3Total edible 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3

diblNon‐edibleMarine fats and oils 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0Marine fats and oils 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0Fish meal 1 0 1 3 2 1 1 6 0 4 1 0Fish meal 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.0Pearls 264 0 366 4 243 9 241 3 206 6 151 5Pearls a 264.0 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6 151.5Ornamental fish 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8Ornamental fish 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8Other non‐edible 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5Other non‐edible 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5

Total non‐edible 276 3 384 0 259 0 257 9 226 1 172 8Total non‐edible 276.3 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1 172.8

Total fisheries products 1 340 8 1 528 5 1 246 1 1 248 2 1 226 8 1 175 1Total fisheries products 1 340.8 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8 1 175.1a Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberraa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberraa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberraa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberraa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberraa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: ABS, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra


Fisheries imports

TABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia24VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFish

Li fi hLive fish na na na na na naTuna 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9Tuna 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9Salmonids 10 2 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 2 11 9Salmonids 10.2 10.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9Hake 6 8 5 7 5 4 6 7 5 3 6 1Hake 6.8 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1

df hSwordfish 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Toothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Toothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Herrings 0 9 0 8 0 9 1 0 0 9 1 8Herrings 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8Shark 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 5Shark 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5Other fish 79.4 77.2 83.3 83.1 86.6 92.8

Total fish b 136.8 133.4 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5Total fish b 136.8 133.4 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5

d llCrustaceans and molluscsPrawns 29.8 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8Prawns 29.8 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8Lobster 0 8 0 5 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 8Lobster 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8C b 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 5 1 5Crabs 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5Mussels 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7Mussels 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7Scallops 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1Scallops 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1Squid and octopus 15 6 16 8 16 0 15 2 17 0 19 9Squid and octopus 15.6 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9Oth t d ll 9 4 9 9 9 6 9 4 7 3 4 2Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.2

Total crustaceans and molluscs 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8 68.0Total crustaceans and molluscs 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8 68.0

l diblTotal edible abc 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.5a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. na not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. na not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics





Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia25ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mEdible aFishEdible aFish

Li fi hLive fish 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tuna 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2Tuna 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2Salmonids 79 1 100 0 85 8 84 4 91 8 118 8Salmonids 79.1 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8Hake 32 0 31 0 26 1 27 2 20 9 23 4Hake 32.0 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4

df hSwordfish 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7Toothfish 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2Toothfish 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2Herrings 4 6 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 2 5 1Herrings 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1Shark 4 1 4 5 5 6 4 4 4 0 4 6Shark 4.1 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0 4.6Other fish 415.2 455.5 455.0 443.7 459.6 480.0

Total fish b 715.0 824.6 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5Total fish b 715.0 824.6 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5

d llCrustaceans and molluscsPrawns 250.2 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8Prawns 250.2 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8Lobster 14 2 9 8 11 8 15 0 16 0 15 3Lobster 14.2 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3C b 10 3 11 3 12 4 13 3 15 5 16 8Crabs 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8Mussels 9.0 12.0 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1Mussels 9.0 12.0 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1Scallops 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1Scallops 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1Squid and octopus 45 6 54 3 62 0 74 3 90 4 97 7Squid and octopus 45.6 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7Oth t d ll 59 8 70 1 66 5 65 3 57 0 40 7Other crustaceans and molluscs 59.8 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7

Total crustaceans and molluscs 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4Total crustaceans and molluscs 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4

l dibl 98 3 93 3 20 2 8 2 2 228Total edible abc 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.5

Non‐edibleP l d 166 4 320 6 170 8 166 9 138 2 105 4Non‐ediblePearls d 166.4 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2 105.4Fish meal 41.2 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2 43.3Ornamental fish 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0Ornamental fish 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0Marine fats and oils 27 1 33 9 26 8 31 0 39 5 39 1Marine fats and oils 27.1 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1Oth i d t 25 6 24 9 14 9 9 9 17 1 29 0Other marine products 25.6 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.1 29.0

Total non‐edible 265 7 427 1 269 0 258 4 232 8 220 7Total non‐edible 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7

Total fisheries products 1 394.3 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.3Total fisheries products 1 394.3 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.3a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. cMostly re‐imports. d Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. s ABARES estimate. 0.0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. cMostly re‐imports. d Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. s ABARES estimate. 0.0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics







Agricultural exports

TABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia aSTATISTICS

26 A l l (f b)26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australiaa2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australiaa2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm

d l dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley b 234 335 284 260 316 260barley bcanola 70 65 109 41 47 72lupins 4 9 9 9 9 1lupinswheat c 289 434 498 408 395 392wheat c 289 434 498 408 395 392

Summer cropscottonseed 8 16 31 24 31 36

Summer cropscottonseed 8 16 31 24 31 36grain sorghum 25 319 70 105 219 202grain sorghum 25 319 70 105 219 202other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other oilseeds e 6 4 1 1 1 1other oilseeds e 6 4 1 1 1 1

Total grains and oilseeds 638 1 184 1 005 852 1 021 975Total grains and oilseeds 638 1 184 1 005 852 1 021 975

I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton g 47 39 31 48 63 28Sugar 129 192 190 194 211 213gWine 49 54 43 44 45 42Total industrial crops 225 285 264 286 319 283pHorticultureFruit 81 70 61 70 59 63HorticultureFruit 81 70 61 70 59 63Tree nuts 13 15 17 16 20 23Tree nuts 13 15 17 16 20 23Vegetables 42 49 34 47 43 43Vegetables 42 49 34 47 43 43Nursery 5 6 4 4 3 3Nursery 5 6 4 4 3 3Other horticulture h 4 4 5 7 6 4Other horticulture h 4 4 5 7 6 4Total horticulture 146 144 121 143 131 134Total horticulture 146 144 121 143 131 134Other crops and crop products 44 61 47 54 47 50Other crops and crop products 44 61 47 54 47 50

Total crops 1 053 1 674 1 437 1 334 1 517 1 442p 1 053 1 674 1 437 1 334 1 517 1 442

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 435Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 435Live cattle i 18 14 15 16 20 15Live cattle i 18 14 15 16 20 15Lamb 53 67 52 60 63 54Lamb 53 67 52 60 63 54Mutton 28 39 24 26 24 17Mutton 28 39 24 26 24 17Oth t d li i l j 10 5 6 2 2 1Other meat and live animals j 10 5 6 2 2 1

l d l lTotal meat and live animals 1 903 2 191 1 779 1 771 1 657 1 521

Wool Greasy 0 2 4 9 12 8Wool Greasy 0 2 4 9 12 8Semi‐processed 17 12 12 23 26 21Semi‐processed 17 12 12 23 26 21Skins 5 3 1 1 2 1Skins 5 3 1 1 2 1Total 22 17 17 33 39 30Total 22 17 17 33 39 30

Dairy productsB tt 17 11 2 6 9 4Dairy productsButter 17 11 2 6 9 4Ch 427 399 358 356 423 415Cheese 427 399 358 356 423 415Casein 38 44 26 22 21 17Skim milk powder 10 22 3 2 2 5Whole milk powder 0 0 0 1 0pOther dairy products 53 46 44 37 44 65y pTotal dairy product exports 545 521 433 423 500 506y p pOther livestock exports 394 438 323 339 303 297Other livestock exports 394 438 323 339 303 297Total livestock exports 2 864 3 167 2 552 2 567 2 500 2 355Total livestock exports 2 864 3 167 2 552 2 567 2 500 2 355Total agricultural exports 3 917 4 841 3 989 3 901 4 017 3 796Total agricultural exports 3 917 4 841 3 989 3 901 4 017 3 796

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra










TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia aSTATISTICS

27 A l l h d S (f b)27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australiaa2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australiaa2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 0 0 0 0 0 0barley bchickpeas 1 2 1 2 2 3p

Summer cropscottonseed 0 0 10 0 20 50

p0 0 10 0 20 50

other grains c 1 1 1 1 0 0gother oilseeds d 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 12 3 22 53Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 12 3 22 53

Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Sugar 43 66 57 85 119 76Sugar 43 66 57 85 119 76Wine 745 741 619 494 464 448Wine 745 741 619 494 464 448Total industrial crops 788 808 676 579 583 524Total industrial crops 788 808 676 579 583 524

i lHorticultureFruit 65 60 67 33 33 25Tree nuts 15 20 22 12 15 28Vegetables 7 10 8 7 8 6gNursery 4 4 3 2 2 2NurseryOther horticulture g 19 18 14 16 15 19g 19 18 14 16 15 19Total horticulture 110 111 114 70 72 80Total horticulture 110 111 114 70 72 80Other crops and crop products 93 174 167 168 142 191Other crops and crop products 93 174 167 168 142 191Total crops 994 1 095 969 821 819 847Total crops 994 1 095 969 821 819 847

d li i lB f d lMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 925 1 225 817 704 896 960

bLamb 313 354 303 335 305 295Mutton 45 35 32 38 21 34Other meat and live animals h 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 1 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 2891 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 289

WoolGreasy 9 7 9 11 8 7Wool Greasy 9 7 9 11 8 7Semi processed 2 1 3 3 3 2Semi‐processed 2 1 3 3 3 2Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 11 8 12 14 11 9Total 11 8 12 14 11 9

Dairy productsButter 10 19 10 3 7 13

y p

Cheese 37 60 20 12 3 11CheeseCasein 42 29 23 13 7 9Casein 42 29 23 13 7 9Skim milk powder 7 0 0 0 0 0Skim milk powder 7 0 0 0 0 0Whole milk powder 9 8 9 4 4 5Whole milk powder 9 8 9 4 4 5Other dairy products 10 10 13 17 15 16Other dairy products 10 10 13 17 15 16Total dairy product exports 115 126 74 50 35 53Total dairy product exports 115 126 74 50 35 53

Other livestock exports 105 125 116 125 115 136Other livestock exports 105 125 116 125 115 136Total livestock exports 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 487Total livestock exports 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 487Total agricultural exports 2 509 2 969 2 323 2 087 2 203 2 334Total agricultural exports 2 509 2 969 2 323 2 087 2 203 2 334

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Includes oilseeds not separately listed. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra









TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia a

STATISTICS

28 A l l Ch (f b)28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australiaa2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australiaa2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 295 235 280 311 454 478barley bcanola 0 21 0 0 0 249wheat c 22 42 219 144 457 357wheat c

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 14 14 4 98

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 14 14 4 98other grains d 0 0 1 0 1 6other grains d 0 0 1 0 1 6other oilseeds e 1 2 1 45 116 95other oilseeds e 1 2 1 45 116 95

Total grains and oilseeds 318 300 514 514 1 032 1 283Total grains and oilseeds 318 300 514 514 1 032 1 283

Industrial cropsR 164 165 274 551 1 812 1 849Industrial cropsRaw cotton g 164 165 274 551 1 812 1 849Sugar 15 3 4 31 21 2Wine 62 94 143 185 215 248Total industrial crops 241 262 421 766 2 048 2 099pHorticultureFruit 8 6 6 8 10 28HorticultureFruit 8 6 6 8 10 28Tree nuts 12 14 8 6 11 36Tree nuts 12 14 8 6 11 36Vegetables 2 1 6 4 6 4Vegetables 2 1 6 4 6 4Nursery 0 0 0 1 1 0Nursery 0 0 0 1 1 0Other horticulture h 2 3 4 3 4 4Other horticulture h 2 3 4 3 4 4Total horticulture 24 23 25 23 32 72Total horticulture 24 23 25 23 32 72Other crops and crop products 25 7 7 8 22 30Other crops and crop products 25 7 7 8 22 30Total cropsTotal crops 607 592 967 1 311 3 133 3 484

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 10 20 17 28 40 406Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 10 20 17 28 40 406Live cattle i 0 5 4 0Live cattle i 0 5 4 0Lamb 37 34 34 63 73 108Lamb 37 34 34 63 73 108Mutton 5 9 13 12 14 102Mutton 5 9 13 12 14 102Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 1Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 1Total meat and live animals 52 64 69 107 127 616Total meat and live animals 52 64 69 107 127 616

W lWool Greasy 1 455 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844Semi‐processed 28 55 62 21 24 18Ski

pSkins 265 271 257 351 369 336

lTotal 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 199

Dairy productsButter 4 3 5 4 7 6Dairy productsButter 4 3 5 4 7 6Cheese 18 14 23 30 37 44Cheese 18 14 23 30 37 44Casein 4 5 7 1 1 1Casein 4 5 7 1 1 1Skim milk powder 34 39 22 37 50 35Skim milk powder 34 39 22 37 50 35Whole milk powder 21 48 38 52 11 56Whole milk powder 21 48 38 52 11 56Other dairy products 58 54 45 35 58 68Other dairy products 58 54 45 35 58 68Total dairy product exports 139 164 139 159 164 210Total dairy product exports 139 164 139 159 164 210

Other livestock exports 480 520 603 660 747 760pTotal livestock exports 2 420 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 785pTotal agricultural exports 3 027 2 994 3 558 4 472 6 490 7 269g pa ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra









TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries

STATISTICS

29 Value of Australian forestry products trade by selected countries29ValueofAustralianforestryproductstrade,byselectedcountries2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mExports

China 360 390 394 544 534 474Exports

China 360 390 394 544 534 474Hong Kong 54 51 68 42 39 16g gJapan 965 860 774 745 579 394Japan 965 860 774 745 579 394Korea Rep of 91 103 48 40 40 34Korea, Rep. of 91 103 48 40 40 34Malaysia 57 78 82 106 112 75Malaysia 57 78 82 106 112 75New Zealand 375 324 319 314 306 268Taiwan 88 77 88 79 68 68Taiwan 88 77 88 79 68 68

I tImportsChina 547 611 624 680 797 910China 547 611 624 680 797 910Finland 272 274 171 143 120 205Finland 272 274 171 143 120 205Germany 178 167 178 183 147 135Germany 178 167 178 183 147 135dIndonesia 336 374 351 332 342 313

Malaysia 209 215 217 228 233 223Malaysia 209 215 217 228 233 223New Zealand 790 744 703 715 634 556New Zealand 790 744 703 715 634 556U it d St t 289 320 313 285 297 303United States 289 320 313 285 297 303

s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticss ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticss ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticss ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Forestry trade


Fisheries trade

TABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

30 Value of Australian fishery products trade by selected countries Australia30ValueofAustralianfisheryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $ExportsExports

Edible (including live)H K 46 0 30 426 4 9 31Edible (including live)Hong Kong 467 570 530 426 479 317g gVietnam 8 3 4 8 60 293Vietnam 8 3 4 8 60 293Japan 328 302 215 226 255 236Japan 328 302 215 226 255 236China 26 30 43 143 59 45China 26 30 43 143 59 45SiSingapore 40 44 37 41 42 31g pUnited States 73 65 49 36 23 18United States 73 65 49 36 23 18Taiwan 45 54 33 30 18 10Taiwan 45 54 33 30 18 10Thailand 8 7 9 16 18 9Thailand 8 7 9 16 18 9New Zealand 12 9 17 10 10 9Malaysia 8 13 9 13 8 8Malaysia 8 13 9 13 8 8Indonesia 4 5 7 9 6 7Indonesia 4 5 7 9 6 7

Non‐edibleHong Kong 128 201 138 145 97 54Non edibleHong Kong 128 201 138 145 97 54Japan 53 64 50 43 44 33Japan 53 64 50 43 44 33

i dUnited States 24 22 15 8 22 21

Imports aImports adibl ( l di li )Edible (excluding live)Thailand 295 368 322 340 362 400

( g )Thailand 295 368 322 340 362 400New Zealand 198 207 212 210 197 206New Zealand 198 207 212 210 197 206China 132 152 173 186 231 196China 132 152 173 186 231 196ViVietnam 142 167 153 162 174 163Malaysia 55 65 63 71 73 81Malaysia 55 65 63 71 73 81United States 29 49 37 40 45 52United States 29 49 37 40 45 52Indonesia 23 31 39 28 36 51Indonesia 23 31 39 28 36 51Taiwan 32 33 37 39 39 48South Africa 24 23 30 28 31 35South Africa 24 23 30 28 31 35Denmark 19 24 24 19 25 32Denmark 19 24 24 19 25 32N 21 20 27 25 27 30Norway 21 20 27 25 27 30Other 41 36 36 33 32 36Other 41 36 36 33 32 36

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available. s ABARES estimate.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food exports

TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Mi i ll t f dMinimally transformedLive animals except fish 761 924 924 924 787 564

yLive animals except fish 761 924 924 924 787 564Fish or shellfish 646 747 650 667 721 763Fish or shellfish 646 747 650 667 721 763Horticulture

blHorticultureVegetables 137 152 150 166 152 152gFruit and nuts 433 563 472 368 450 633Fruit and nuts 433 563 472 368 450 633Total 571 716 622 534 602 785Total 571 716 622 534 602 785G i 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793 8 585Grains a 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793 8 585Oilseeds 346 644 657 973 1 555 2 340OilseedsFood nec 41 49 43 50 52 78Food nec 41 49 43 50 52 78Substantially and elaborately transformedSubstantially and elaborately transformedM tMeatMeat processing 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068 7 594Meat processing 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068 7 594Poultry processing 32 43 36 38 45 43Poultry processing 32 43 36 38 45 43Bacon ham and smallgoods 33 47 54 57 87 104Bacon, ham and smallgoods 33 47 54 57 87 104T lTotal 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983 7 201 7 741Seafood 420 399 338 324 281 240Seafood 420 399 338 324 281 240DairyMilk and cream processing 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065 997DairyMilk and cream processing 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065 997Ice cream 37 31 31 33 27 16Cheese 968 796 715 731 751 784Cheese 968 796 715 731 751 784Other dairy products 499 497 440 451 422 401Other dairy products 499 497 440 451 422 401T t l 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264 2 197Total 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264 2 197Fruit and vegetables 568 575 523 571 625 668Fruit and vegetablesOil and fat 239 303 289 293 317 326Oil and fat 239 303 289 293 317 326Flour mill and cereal foodFl ill d t 315 419 365 344 313 347Flour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 315 419 365 344 313 347pCereal food and baking mix 287 390 445 614 880 955Cereal food and baking mix 287 390 445 614 880 955Total 602 809 811 958 1 193 1 301Total 602 809 811 958 1 193 1 301Bakery productsB d k dBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 26 25 26 22 22 26, p yBiscuit 118 127 135 134 129 118Biscuit 118 127 135 134 129 118Total 144 152 161 155 150 144Total 144 152 161 155 150 144Other foodSOther foodSugar a 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479 1 600 1 439gConfectionery 237 269 260 252 240 207Confectionery 237 269 260 252 240 207Total 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469 3 520Total 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469 3 520Beverage and maltBeverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 38 45 55 61 63 61Soft drink, cordial and syrup 38 5 55 6 63 6Beer and malt 335 447 406 318 372 378Beer and malt 335 447 406 318 372 378Wine 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867Wine 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867S i it 86 105 101 97 103 144Spirit 86 105 101 97 103 144pTotal 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447 2 450Total 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447 2 450Total food and beverageMinimally transformed 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510 13 115Total food and beverageMinimally transformed 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510 13 115S b i ll f dSubstantially transformed 16 508 18 224 16 587 16 836 17 612 18 272yElaborately transformed 324 350 362 346 335 316Elaborately transformed 324 350 362 346 335 316Total 23 418 28 037 24 476 27 095 30 458 31 703Total 23 418 28 037 24 476 27 095 30 458 31 703

a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics






Food imports

TABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia

STATISTIC

32 Australian food imports by level of transformation Australia32AustralianfoodimportsbyleveloftransformationAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 2 1 2 1 1Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 2 1 2 1 1Fi h h llfi h 65 67 72 73 67 72Fish or shellfish 65 67 72 73 67 72HorticultureVegetables 53 49 58 76 64 72Vegetables 53 49 58 76 64 72Fruit and nuts 216 225 262 245 290 285Fruit and nuts 216 225 262 245 290 285T t l 269 274 320 322 354 356Total 269 274 320 322 354 356Grains 2 2 3 4 6 8Grains 2 2 3 4 6 8Oilseeds 49 49 36 36 41 46Oilseeds 49 49 36 36 41 46Food nec 188 224 228 304 348 300Food nec 188 224 228 304 348 300S b t ti ll d l b t l t f dSubstantially and elaborately transformedMeat

y y

Meat processing 381 525 497 478 493 540MeatMeat processing 381 525 497 478 493 540Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Bacon, ham and smallgoods 50 68 82 90 112 119, gTotal 431 593 579 567 606 659Total 431 593 579 567 606 659Seafood 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348 1 400Seafood 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348 1 400DairyDairyMilk and cream processing 67 69 66 72 75 61Milk and cream processingIce cream 37 39 40 44 45 45Ice cream 37 39 40 44 45 45Cheese 377 365 360 398 408 388Cheese 377 365 360 398 408 388Oth d i d t 176 157 150 180 227 195Other dairy products 176 157 150 180 227 195y pTotal 656 631 615 694 755 689Total 656 631 615 694 755 689Fruit and vegetables 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742 1 631Fruit and vegetables 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742 1 631Oil and fat 489 578 485 517 516 522Oil and fat 489 578 485 517 516 522Fl ill d l f dFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 66 83 66 48 53 60Flour mill products 66 83 66 48 53 60Cereal food and baking mix 462 576 577 523 504 534Cereal food and baking mix 462 576 577 523 504 534Total 527 659 643 572 557 594Total 527 659 643 572 557 594

k dBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 175 197 191 222 242 282

y pBread, cake and pastry 175 197 191 222 242 282Biscuit 162 179 178 191 206 229Biscuit 162 179 178 191 206 229T t l 337 376 369 413 448 511Total 337 376 369 413 448 511Other foodSugar 22 44 71 125 95 73Sugar 22 44 71 125 95 73Confectionery 438 518 525 547 576 588Confectionery 438 518 525 547 576 588

d 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583 1 745Food nec 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583 1 745Total 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255 2 406Total 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255 2 406Beverage and maltSoft drink cordial and syrup 697 791 798 818 898 928Beverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 697 791 798 818 898 928

d lBeer and malt 161 226 212 196 219 274Wine 454 502 477 490 554 602Wine 454 502 477 490 554 602Spirit 491 530 538 544 571 568Spirit 491 530 538 544 571 568Total 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243 2 373Total 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243 2 373

l f d d bTotal food and beverageMinimally transformed 573 618 660 741 818 784

gMinimally transformed 573 618 660 741 818 784Substantially transformed 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 989 10 271Substantially transformed 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 989 10 271El b t l t f d 396 429 434 445 481 515Elaborately transformed 396 429 434 445 481 515Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569








Food trade

TABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia

STATISTICS

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s$m $m $m $m $m $m

Canada 402 380 335 332 328 339China 917 1 178 1 426 1 550 2 076 2 918Egypt 174 315 266 402 387 344Germany 162 153 109 263 262 197Hong Kong 857 1 082 997 890 1 024 912Indonesia 1 702 2 652 2 129 2 288 2 271 2 330Japan 4 553 5 517 4 278 4 213 4 415 4 212Korea, Rep. of 1 655 1 873 1 925 1 995 2 314 2 152Malaysia 799 1 231 853 851 879 923New Zealand 1 303 1 406 1 323 1 300 1 393 1 396Philippines 308 563 318 503 679 642Saudi Arabia 1 144 1 020 566 500 842 691Singapore 712 792 722 742 799 788Taiwan 574 671 613 627 628 632Thailand 393 626 424 539 725 563United Arab Emirates 445 567 528 581 600 839United Kingdom 1 136 1 005 784 685 614 598United States 2 552 3 054 2 379 2 165 2 285 2 424Other 3 631 3 951 4 503 6 670 7 936 8 805Total 23 418 28 037 24 476 27 095 30 458 31 703

33Australiantotalfoodexports,byselecteddestinationAustralia

s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

STATISTICS

34 Australian total food imports by selected source Australia34Australiantotalfoodimports,byselectedsourceAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mBrazil 129 150 110 148 176 126Brazil 129 150 110 148 176 126Canada 220 268 234 219 210 185Canada 220 268 234 219 210 185China a 617 754 708 750 841 835China aFrance 278 281 281 297 332 382France 278 281 281 297 332 382India 156 175 164 167 222 212India 156 175 164 167 222 212I d i 158 202 189 191 190 212Indonesia 158 202 189 191 190 212Ireland 536 559 585 252 89 77Ireland 536 559 585 5 89 77Italy 436 494 463 430 469 487Italy 436 494 463 430 469 487Malaysia 354 459 392 455 456 424Malaysia 354 459 392 455 456 424N th l d 182 220 197 200 275 311Netherlands 182 220 197 200 275 311New Zealand 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047 2 060New Zealand 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047 2 060Papua New Guinea 36 45 44 57 59 37Papua New Guinea 36 45 44 57 59 37Singapore 155 205 194 539 792 797Singapore 155 205 194 539 792 797

iSpain 173 153 186 171 158 172pThailand 547 702 689 759 741 784Thailand 547 702 689 759 741 784United Kingdom 295 314 331 324 347 382United Kingdom 295 314 331 324 347 382United States 803 994 893 959 1 139 1 231United States 803 994 893 959 1 139 1 231Vietnam 250 297 280 303 344 328Other 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401 2 527Other 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401 2 527Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569

a Excludes imports from Hong Kong. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia


168

ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 3 no. 2 June quarter 2013)Following is a selection of ABARES reports released since publication of Agricultural commodities in June 2013. A brief description of the nature of each report is provided. While not comprehensive, the selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

All reports can be downloaded from daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

For more information contact [email protected].

Research reportsAustralian lamb: financial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13

Research report 13.7Publication date: 26 June 2013 Authors: Tim Caboche and Therese Thompson

Around 18 800 Australian broadacre farms sell more than 200 lambs for slaughter. These farms are classified as slaughter lamb producers in this report. Most of these farms are mixed enterprise, deriving a substantial proportion of their receipts from cropping, beef cattle, sheep and wool, as well as from the sale of slaughter lambs.

Australian lambFinancial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms 2010–11 to 2012–13Tim Caboche and Therese Thompson


RESEARch REpoRt 13.7

Report extracts


Australian beef: financial performance of beef cattle producing farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13

Research report 13.8Publication date: 24 July 2013 Authors: Peter Martin, Paul Phillips, Robert Leith and Tim Caboche

This report was commissioned by Meat & Livestock Australia and expands on results published in Agricultural commodities, March quarter 2012 released at the ABARES Outlook 2012 conference and the Australian farm survey results 2010–11 to 2012–13 report released in April. It presents detailed financial performance and production information for Australian beef cattle producing farms from 2010–11 to 2012–13.

Australian dairy: financial performance of dairy producing farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13

Research report 13.9Publication date: 24 July 2013 Authors: Surya Dharma and Astrid Dahl

This report provides results at a regional level of financial performance, management practices and productivity of dairy producing farms. It presents results from ABARES annual Australian Dairy Industry Survey (ADIS). The report expands on farm survey results published in Agricultural commodities, March quarter 2013, and Australian farm survey results 2010–11 to 2012–13, both released at the ABARES Outlook 2013 conference. ABARES conducted the ADIS between July and November 2012, covering 2011–12 and projections for 2012–13.

Australian grains: financial performance of grain producing farms 2010–11 to 2012–13

Research report 13.10Publication date: 25 July 2013 Authors: Haydn Valle, Milly Lubulwa, Walter Shafron and Astrid Dahl

This research report presents results from ABARES annual Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey (AAGIS) conducted between July and December 2012. The report focuses on information obtained from grain cropping farm businesses included in the AAGIS. This survey provides data on the financial performance of broadacre farm businesses and their associated production characteristics. The survey also provides the main means of monitoring and analysing productivity growth in the grains industry sector.

Report extracts

Australian beefFinancial performance of beef cattle producing farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13Peter Martin, Paul Phillips, Robert Leith and Tim Caboche


RESEARCH REPORT 13.8

Australian dairyFinancial performance of dairy producing farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13Surya Dharma and Astrid Dahl



Australian grainsFinancial performance of grain producing farms 2010–11 to 2012–13Haydn Valle, Milly Lubulwa, Walter Shafron and Astrid Dahl



169


Technical reportsAustralian Agricultural Environments—Regions for common practice assessments

Technical report 13.04Publication date: 2 August 2013 Authors: Jasmine Richards, James Walcott and Rob Lesslie

ABARES has developed 18 Australian Agricultural Environments (AAEs) to stratify survey collection and analysis for the ABS Land Management Practices Survey (LaMPS). The AAEs differentiate broad environmental, land use and land management patterns across Australia’s agricultural landscapes. The regionalisation combines ABS statistical units with agro-ecological regions. The AAEs have been specifically developed to stratify data collection and analysis for the LaMPS.

Ground cover monitoring for Australia: progress report July 2011 to June 2012

Technical report 13.05Publication date: 30 August 2013 Authors: Jane Stewart, Jasmine Rickards and Lucy Randall

DAFF funded a four-year project (2009–2013) to monitor ground cover for Australia using remote sensing. The project provided regular ground cover information to assess environmental targets for soil erosion and land management in Australia. This progress report gives the achievements of the project from July 2011 to June 2012 and tasks continuing in 2013.

Other reportsAustralian crop reportPublication date: 10 September 2013

The quarterly report forms a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state-by-state basis.

Australian ground cover reference sites database packagePublication date: 7 August 2013

The database package includes observations collected at ground cover reference sites between July 2010 and February 2013 and instructions for using the data. The data and supporting documentation are updates to the Australian ground cover reference sites database ABARES published in June 2012. The database is being used to calibrate, validate and improve vegetation fractional cover products derived from remote sensing.

Report extracts

Australian Agricultural Environments Regions for common practice assessments Jasmine Rickards, James Walcott and Rob Lesslie


Technical report 13.04 August 2013

Ground cover monitoring for Australia

Progress report July 2011 to June 2012 Jane Stewart, Jasmine Rickards and Lucy Randall


Technical Report 13.5 August 2013

Australian crop report Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural

and Resource Economics and Sciences

September 2013 No. 167

170


Technical review for the Commonwealth Policy on Fisheries Bycatch: risk-based approaches, reference points and decision rules for by-catch and by-products speciesPublication date: 25 June 2013 Authors: Andrew Penney, David Kirby, Katherine Cheshire, Michelle Wilson and Shalan Bray

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. It reviews recent developments in methodology and implementation of risk-based and low-information analytical approaches to assessment of by-catch and by-product species.

A methodology for obtaining regular, statistically robust estimates of recreational and charter fishing catch of Southern Bluefin Tuna in Australian watersPublication date: 25 June 2013 Authors: Peter Ward and Phil Sahlqvist

This report was developed for the Recreational Fishing Industry Development Strategy. The project was primarily a response to a Wildlife Trade Operation condition for the Southern Bluefin Tuna Fishery. It involved a workshop at which participants reviewed data collection programs for recreational fisheries, evaluated future monitoring methods and identified a preferred methodology for routinely estimating the national recreational catch. The project resulted in a collaborative funding application to further develop and test the proposed methodology, which was funded by Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, DAFF and the New South Wales Recreational Fishing Trust.

Who’s involved with weeds? A social network analysis of funding and information networks for weed managementPublication date: 26 June 2013 Authors: Lyndal-Joy Thompson, Heleen Kruger and Charlene Trestrail

This report was developed for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. It examines networks for managing weeds in Australia, in particular networks providing funding and information through the weed governance system. The research employed a social network analysis approach to investigate where community groups and institutions obtain weed management information and funding.

Report extracts

171


Farmers’ response to weather variability: a state-contingent approach using farm-level data

Conference paperPublication date: 28 June 2013 Authors: Thilak Mallawaarachchi (ABARES and University of Queensland), Céline Nauges (University of Queensland), Orion Sanders (ABARES) and John Quiggin (University of Queensland)

This paper was presented at the twentieth annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in France. It is an investigation of competing frameworks for modelling decision-making under uncertainty in the context of dairy irrigation in the Murray, Goulburn, and Loddon–Avoca regions in the Murray–Darling Basin. Using data from the ABARES irrigation survey for 2006–07 to 2009–10, two milk production technologies are estimated under competing frameworks: stochastic production and state-contingent production.

Report extracts

172


173

Executive Director Paul Morris [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Chief Economist Michael Harris [email protected] (02) 6272 2222

Chief Scientist Kim Ritman [email protected] (02) 6272 4671

Adaptation and Biosecurity

Assistant Secretary Helal Ahammad [email protected] (02) 6272 2366

Biosecurity and Climate Edwina Heyhoe [email protected] (02) 6272 2109

Change Economics

Climate Impact Sciences Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Invasive Species Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Mitigation and Adaptation Sciences Kate Harle [email protected] (02) 6272 3347

Agricultural Commodities and Trade

Assistant Secretary and

Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123

Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

Commodities Data Dianne Stefanac [email protected] (02) 6272 2311

Research Engagement

and Outlook Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287

Spatial Information

Standards and Implementation Evert Bleys [email protected] (02) 6272 5627

Farm Analysis, Productivity and Social Sciences

Assistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138

Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

Social Sciences Saan Ecker [email protected] (02) 6272 5930

Infrastructure Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009

Farm Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069

Survey Collection John Gray [email protected] (02) 6272 5381

ABARES contacts


ABARES contacts

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Agricultural commodities September quarter 2013was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

Editors: Jenny Cook and Julia Church

Fisheries and Quantitative Sciences

Assistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277

Domestic Fisheries and

Marine Environment Andrew Penney [email protected] (02) 6272 3726

International Fisheries James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388

Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014

Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

Natural Resources

Assistant Secretary David Cunningham [email protected] (02) 6272 5954

Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582

Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Land Use and Management Phil Pritchard [email protected] (02) 6272 4193

Library Resources Steve Benson [email protected] (02) 6272 4548

Production, Online and Design Lawrence Gardner [email protected] (02) 6272 2290

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010

daff.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email [email protected]

Web daff.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, June 2012• Agricultural commodities, September 2012• Agricultural commodities, December 2012• Agricultural commodities, March 2013• Agricultural commodities, June 2013

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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