Agri-Weeklywebapps.daff.gov.za/AmisAdmin/upload/02 September 2016.pdf · Weekly wheat imports came...

13
Agri-Weekly 02 September 2016 Yellow maize market (Graph 1) International: Maize prices posted solid losses over the week as favourable conditions for the maturing crop and expectations of better yields continued to weigh heavily on the market. On crop expectations, a bumper crop is expected from the US as crop condition ratings beat historic trends, bolstering expectations of above average yields. The overall US maize crop is rated 75% in the good to excellent conditions, the highest rating since 2004. News that the Fed may raise rates sooner than market expectations saw the US$ gaining ground and thus adding further pressure on the maize market. On trade, export sales came in on the bearish side, down 19% w/w at 861,000 tons while shipments were up 40% w/w at 1.47m tons. 2016/17 Season IGC global projections (million tons) 13/14 14/15 15/16 July August Production 998 1018 969 1017 1030 Trade 122 125 135 130 131 Consumption 950 993 969 1010 1019 Carryover stocks 182 207 207 213 218 Year/year change 48 25 0 11 Major exporters 52 59 53 63 69 Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US Source: IGC Source: USDA, PSD 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Graph 1a: World maize production trends (‘000 tons) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Graph 1b: World maize- Ending Stocks vs Stocks/Usage ratio Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage ratio Graph 1: Yellow maize prices 750 1,070 1,390 1,710 2,030 2,350 2,670 2,990 3,310 3,630 3,950 4,270 04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16 (R/ton) Import parity Export parity Domestic * last two data points are preliminary

Transcript of Agri-Weeklywebapps.daff.gov.za/AmisAdmin/upload/02 September 2016.pdf · Weekly wheat imports came...

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Agri-Weekly

02 September 2016

Yellow maize market (Graph 1)

International: Maize prices posted solid losses over the

week as favourable conditions for the maturing crop and expectations of better yields continued to weigh heavily on the market.

On crop expectations, a bumper crop is expected from the US as crop condition ratings beat historic trends, bolstering expectations of above average yields. The overall US maize crop is rated 75% in the good to excellent conditions, the highest rating since 2004.

News that the Fed may raise rates sooner than market expectations saw the US$ gaining ground and thus adding further pressure on the maize market.

On trade, export sales came in on the bearish side, down 19% w/w at 861,000 tons while shipments were up 40% w/w at 1.47m tons.

2016/17 Season

IGC global projections (million tons) 13/14 14/15 15/16 July August

Production 998 1018 969 1017 1030

Trade 122 125 135 130 131

Consumption 950 993 969 1010 1019

Carryover stocks 182 207 207 213 218

Year/year change 48 25 0

11

Major exporters 52 59 53 63 69

Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US Source: IGC

Source: USDA, PSD

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000Graph 1a: World maize production trends (‘000 tons)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

Graph 1b: World maize- Ending Stocks vs Stocks/Usage ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage ratio

Graph 1: Yellow maize prices

750

1,070

1,390

1,710

2,030

2,350

2,670

2,990

3,310

3,630

3,950

4,270

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16

(R/ton)

Import parity Export parity Domestic

* last two data points are preliminary

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Domestic: The weaker rand underpinned recent gains despite the spill over weakness from the

international market. Producer deliveries came in notably lower w/w at 27,840 for yellow maize, bringing

cumulative year to date deliveries to 3.23m tons, which is 77% of the crop estimated for the variety. Total maize deliveries reached at 5.74m tons during the week ended 26 August 2016.

YMAZ imports slowed to 56,685 tons with major suppliers being the South Americans - Argentina and Brazil with a share of 86% and 14% respectively. However on a season date basis, Argentina’s share is 90% while that for Brazil is only 10%.

The average weekly YMAZ prices were up 0.6% w/w and 14% higher y/y at R3,184/t. Prices have so far dropped by R837/t from the 2016 peak of R4,021/t.

Source: JSE, Own Calculations

SAFEX (Rand/ ton) CME (US$/t)

02 September

2016 WMAZ % w/w YMAZ % w/w CBOT Corn % w/w US CORN % w/w

Weekly Avg R 4,144 -2.3% R 3,184 0.6% R 1,800 0.6% 144.20 -4.1%

Sep-2016 R 4,108 -3.2% R 3,249 2.7% - - 124.66 0.1%

Dec-2016 R 4,128 -2.9% R 3,316 3.2% Dec-2016 R 1,928 129.39 1.0%

Mar-2017 R 3,854 -0.1% R 3,225 3.6% Mar-2017 R 2,029 133.33 1.2%

May-2017 R 2,974 1.3% R 2,749 3.0% May-2017 R 2,082 136.01 1.1%

Jul-2017 R 2,861 3.8% R 2,732 3.9% Jul-2017 R 2,156 138.85 1.0% Source: JSE, CME

OUTLOOK Currency volatility will remain the main driver in the short term. Weather will start influence further direction in the medium term as we head into the planting period. The short term precipitation outlook is concerning given the continued dryness. Nonetheless, expectations are that the situation might improve as the season progresses with the next season crop back within normal trends - upwards of 12m tons.

-400-340-280-220-160-100

-402080

140200260320

Graph 1c: Weekly YMAZ price change (R/ton) Last 5 months

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

Graph 1d: JSE YMAZ Futures, Jul-17 (R/t)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 1e: Monthly Yellow Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons)

2015/16 2016/17

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 1f: Total SA Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons)

2015/16 2016/17

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Source: SAGIS;

02 September 2016 Calculated Yellow Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)

Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17

Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call

4,160 572 540 3,900 565 519 3,040 491 425

4,120 549 557 3,860 542 536 3,000 468 442

4,080 527 575 3,820 519 553 2,960 444 458

White maize market trends (Graph 2)

International: The stronger US dollar coupled with

expectations of a larger harvest for the new season crop pressured the white maize market.

US white maize shed about 5% over the week to settle at US$132/ton, which is down by 9% y/y.

Domestic: Weekly white maize prices weakened

despite the softer rand. White maize prices averaged R4,144 per

ton, down 2.3% w/w and 34% higher y/y. Prices have so far shed R1,018/t from the 2016 peak of R5,162/t. On the import front, white maize imports came in at 18,951 tons all from Mexico. Mexico

has so far supplied 237,587 tons of white maize to South Africa, which is 92% of the total imports of this variety.

Total maize imports for the 2016/17 season have now reached 722,798 tons. Deliveries for the week ended 26th August were pegged at 109,394 tons, bringing the

cumulative season to date delivery at 2.51m tons, which is 81% of the total estimated white maize crop. OUTLOOK Currency volatility will remain the main driver in the short term. Weather will start influence further direction in the medium term as we head into the planting period. The short term precipitation outlook is concerning given the continued dryness. Nonetheless, expectations are that the situation might improve as the season progresses with the next season crop back within normal trends - upwards of 12m tons.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 1g: Monthly Yellow Maize Import Trends (tons) Marketing Season

2015/16 2016/17

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 1h: Total Monthly SA Maize Imports (tons) Marketing Season

YM 2016/17 WM 2016/17 YM 2015/16 WM 2015/16

Graph 2: White maize prices

680

1,160

1,640

2,120

2,600

3,080

3,560

4,040

4,520

5,000

5,480

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-M ay-16 16-Sep-16

Imp o rt parit y Exp ort parit y D omest ic

(R/ton)

* last two data points are

preliminary

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02 September 2016 Calculated White Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)

Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17

3,360 346 302 3,260 347 312 2,780 318 287

3,320 324 320 3,220 324 329 2,740 296 305

3,280 302 338 3,180 303 348 2,700 274 323

Source: SAGIS;

-300-240-180-120

-600

60120180240300360420

Graph 2a: Weekly price change (R/ton) - JSE WMAZ

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

Graph 2b: JSE WMAZ Futures, Jul-17 (R/t)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 2c: Monthly White Maize Export Trends (tons) Marketing Seasons

2016/17 2015/16

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 2d: Total SA Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons)

2015/16 2016/17

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 2e: Monthly White Maize Import Trends (tons) Marketing Season

2015/16 2016/17 Cumulative

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Graph 2f: Total Monthly SA Maize Imports (tons) Marketing Season

YM 2016/17 WM 2016/17YM 2015/16 WM 2015/16

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Wheat market trends (Graph 3)

International: The market moved mostly on the downside

for the week, mainly pressured by the strong US dollar and renewed uncertainties regarding ergot law in Egypt. Ample world supplies added to the weaker tone.

Egypt has announced its plans to reinstate a zero tolerance on ergot on wheat imports. This caused some panic across the market as Egypt is the largest importer of the grain.

In France, the agricultural ministry reported that French wheat yields could come in 30% below last year and with higher than average protein levels. This offset earlier

concerns that the French wheat had quality issues, rather the crop may come in less than expected.

The market is however now concerned about the protein levels of the US crop, the Russian as well as the Canadian crops. Some reports in Canada indicate concerns of vomitoxin and low protein levels.

Source: USDA, PSD

Domestic: The Rand continued to lose ground over the week but was not enough to offset spill over

pressure from the international market and good domestic crop conditions. Wheat prices averaged R4,166 per ton, down 3% w/w and 1% y/y. Weekly wheat imports came in at 63,260 tons, all from Russia. Russia by far the largest

supplier with 42% of the total wheat imports. The cumulative year to date imports were pegged at 1.91m tons. Exports rebounded to 1,308 tons with the season to date reaching 51,735 tons.

OUTLOOK

Quality will be the main driver of prices internationally as crop ratings in key export markets indicate increased variability. On the domestic front, the currency should cushion downside risks stemming from abundant global supplies.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Graph 3a: World wheat production trends (‘000 tons)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Graph 3b: World wheat: Ending Stocks vs Stocks/Usage ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage ratio

Graph 3: Wheat price trends

500

940

1,380

1,820

2,260

2,700

3,140

3,580

4,020

4,460

4,900

5,340

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-M ay-16 16-Sep-16

Import parit y Exp ort p arit y D omest ic

(R/ton)

* last two data points are preliminary

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R 4,545

R 5,120

R 4,705

R 4,262

3860

4060

4260

4460

4660

4860

5060

5260

5460

22-J

an-1

6

05-F

eb-1

6

19-F

eb-1

6

04-M

ar-1

6

18-M

ar-1

6

01-A

pr-

16

15-A

pr-

16

29-A

pr-

16

13-M

ay-…

27-M

ay-…

10-J

un

-16

24-J

un

-16

08-J

ul-

16

22-J

ul-

16

05-A

ug-

16

19-A

ug-

16

02-S

ep-1

6

Graph 3d: JSE WHEAT Futures - (R/t)

-300-240-180-120

-600

60120180240300360420

Graph 3c: Weekly JSE Wheat price change (R/ton)

Source: JSE

12 August 2016

JSE WHEAT

(R/t) % w/w US HRW (US$/t) % w/w

US SRW (US$/t) % w/w

Weekly average R 4,166 -3.1% 139.03 -7.1% 149.12 -6.1%

Sep-2016 R 3,985 -7.4% 137.13 0.8% 141.98 -0.8%

Dec-2016 R 4,045 -3.1% 146.68 0.6% 151.82 -0.8%

Mar-2017 R 4,129 -3.2% 154.76 0.0% 158.00 -0.6%

May-2017 R 4,230 - 159.69 -0.2% 161.67 -0.7%

Jul-2017 163.95 0.4% 165.05 -1.0% Source: JSE, USDA, CME

02 September 2016 Calculated Wheat Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)

Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17

Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call

4,140 324 277 4,240 350 304 4,340 376 329

4,100 302 295 4,200 328 322 4,300 354 347

4,060 281 314 4,160 306 340 4,260 332 365

Source: SAGIS;

-

80,000

160,000

240,000

320,000

400,000

480,000

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Graph 3e: Wheat Import Trends (tons) Marketing Season

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

0

80000

160000

240000

320000

400000

480000

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Graph 3f: Wheat Import & Export Trends (tons) Marketing Season

IMP-2014/15 IMP-2015/16, RHS

EXP-2014/15 EXP-2015/16, RHS

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Oilseed market trends (Graph 4) International: Prices were down across the US

soybean complex with soybeans closing down 4.6% w/w but almost 10% higher y/y. In the product category, soybeans fell by 3.5% w/w and 3.7% y/y at US$326/ ton. Soybean oil fell by 2.7% w/w but still 18% higher y/y at US31.00 cents/ lb.

On the demand side, China is reportedly purchasing a lot more from the US given the competitive prices. Overall export sales were pegged at 1.583m tons.

US crop ratings came in at 73% on the good to excellent conditions, 10-percentage

points above last year’s ratings. About 94% of the US crop was reported at or beyond the pod setting stage, 3-percenatge points ahead of last year and 2-percenatge points ahead of the 5-year average.

Source: USDA, WASDE, PSD

Domestic:

Prices rebounded strongly across the oilseed complex mainly on rand weakness and improve demand.

Sunflower prices advanced by 5.5% w/w at R6,343/ ton, which is 8% higher y/y. Soybean prices moved modestly higher at R6,623/ ton, up 2.1% w/w and 23% y/y. On harvest outlook, the expected sunflower production for 2015/16 is 742,750 tons and

soybeans at 750,250 tons all unchanged from the previous estimate.

OUTLOOK The trend in global prices remains sideways with slight upside potential on good demand in Asian markets. However, harvest pressure from South America continues to limit further upside. On the domestic market, the rand will remain a major driver in prices direction as the turmoil in our politics persists for a bit longer.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Graph 4a: World soybean production trends (‘000 tons)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Graph 4b: World soybean: Ending Stocks vs Stocks/Usage ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage ratio

Graph 4: Derived Oilseed prices

3,480

3,920

4,360

4,800

5,240

5,680

6,120

6,560

7,000

7,440

7,880

28-Aug-15 01-Jan-16 06-M ay-16 09-Sep-16

Derived Soya Derived Sunflower

Sunflower-spot Soya-spot

(R/ton)

* last two data points are preliminary

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Source: JSE

02 September 2016

JSE SUNS (R/t) % w/w

JSE SOYA (R/t) % w/w

US SOYA (US$/t) % w/w

Weekly avg R 6,343 5.5% R 6,623 2.1% 387.00 -4.6%

Sep-2016 R 6,325 1.5% R 6,689 3.4% 355.83 -2.2%

Dec-2016 R 6,540 2.7% R 6,679 2.8% - -

Mar-2017 R 6,415 3.6% R 6,509 3.0% 352.15 -1.2%

May-2017 R 6,200 2.8% R 6,200 2.6% 353.26 -1.1%

Jul-2017 R 6,235 3.1% 354.36 -0.9% Source: JSE, CME

Oilseeds Futures 02 September 2016

Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17

CBOT Soya oil (US c/lb) 32.66 33.04 33.42 33.57 33.71

CBOT Soya cake meal (US$/t) 307.40 305.70 306.00 307.00 305.70

Calculated Sunflower Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)

Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17

Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call

6,600 745 705 6,460 801 753 6,240 795 755

6,560 723 723 6,420 778 770 6,200 772 772

6,520 701 741 6,380 756 788 6,160 750 790

Sugar market trends (Graph 5)

International: International raw sugar prices lost

ground on harvest pressure from Brazil. Cane farmers raised their harvest pace

in Brazil to take advantage of the good prices in recent weeks while the real was also weaker, encouraging export sales.

Demand was reportedly good. According to Bloomberg, Brazil’s top exporter reported that it had 954,000 tons of sugar scheduled for delivery in June-2017, this is about 10 times the volumes recorded in the previous season. This should help stabilise prices.

-800-640-480-320-160

0160320480640800

Graph 4c: Weekly JSE SOY price change (R/ton)

-1,150

-920

-690

-460

-230

0

230

460

Graph 4e: Weekly JSE SUNS price change (R/ton)

Graph 5: World Raw Sugar Price

No.11 (Usc/lb)

7

9

10

12

13

15

16

18

19

21

22

0 5 - Se p- 15 0 4 - Ja n- 16 0 4 - Ma y- 16 0 2 - Se p- 16

(USc/lb)

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Additionally, the International Sugar Association has reported that global sugar stocks are critically low, estimating a deficit for 2016/17 season at 7.05m tons, one of the highest shortfalls on record. Though the organisation expects sugar output to grow by 2.17m tons, this improvement will not be enough to replenish global stocks as demand is forecast to grow by 3.5m tons to 175.1m tons.

Raw sugar prices were down 1.6% w/w at US20.20 cents/lb. ICE sugar futures were softer across the board with the Mar-17 contract down 1.5% w/w

at US21.77 cents/lb. Sugar for May-17 delivery lost 1.2% w/w at US20.25 cents/lb.

Source: InterContinental Exchange (ICE)

Source: USDA, PSD

Domestic: The RV price came in higher on the domestic market. According to reports released by the

Cane Growers Association, the August Recoverable Value (RV) price for cane delivered in

July came in at a new high of R5,041.76 per ton, up by R603.05 m/m. According to the Cane

Growers Association, this is on the back of 15% hike in the local market national sugar price

which was implemented effective from July 13, 2016. The downside pressure came from the

27,993 tons improvement in sugar output, the firmer R/US$ and the 0.29% decline in

sugar:RV ratio.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Graph 5a: World Sugar ending stocks trends (‘000 tons)

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Graph 5b: World Sugar production and % Cane

Total Sugar Production ('000t) % Cane

ICE Sugar Futures 02 September 2016

Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-17

Sugar No.11 (US c/lb) 20.77 20.25 19.73 19.47 19.34

% Change w/w -1.5% -1.2% -0.7% -0.3% 0.1%

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Vegetable Market Trends (Graphs 6a to 6e): South Africa’s 5 Major Fresh Produce Markets (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban)

Onions (5 major markets)

This week we saw a substantial drop in onion prices on the back of higher volumes across markets. Weekly onion prices closed at R2,135 per ton, down 59% w/w but slightly higher by 1% y/y. Volumes of onions traded reached 6,643 tons, up 8% w/w but still down by 13% y/y. It is however expected that onion prices will rebound slightly on strong uptake across markets.

Tomatoes (5 major markets) Tomato prices trended higher on tight volumes across the markets. The average weekly tomato prices settled at R4,127per ton, up 26% w/w but still down 40% compared to last year. Volumes traded reached 4,852 tons, down 12% w/w but 20% higher y/y. A slight rebound is expected in the short term but downside pressure remains for the medium term.

Potatoes (5 major markets)

Potato prices posted a sharp recovery on the back of improved uptake across markets. The weekly average potato prices closed at R4,722 per ton, up 21% w/w and 73% y/y. Volumes traded reached 14,783 tons, up 5% w/w but still down 13.7% y/y. It is expected that prices will be confined to a sideways trend in the short to medium term as inventory levels remain elevated due the continuing harvesting.

0

940

1,880

2,820

3,760

4,700

5,640

6,580

7,520

8,460

9,400

10,340

11,280

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-M ay-16 16-Sep-16

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

* last two data points are preliminary

Graph 6a: F resh P ro duce M arkets

-T o mato prices

0640

1,2801,9202,5603,200

3,8404,4805,1205,7606,4007,0407,6808,320

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16

0

2080

4160

6240

8320

10400

12480

14560

16640

18720

20800

Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

* last tw o data points are preliminary

Graph 6b: Fresh Produce Markets

- Potato prices

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0

840

1,680

2,520

3,360

4,200

5,040

5,880

6,720

7,560

8,400

9,240

04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16

Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

* last two data points are preliminary

Graph 6c: Fresh Produce Markets - Onion prices

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FNB Agri-Weekly Page 11

Vegetable prices: South Africa’s Major Fresh Produce Markets. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban)

Week ending Average Total 02 September

2016 Price (R/t) w/w y/y Volume (t) w/w y/y

Tomato 4,127 26% -40% 4,852 -12% 20%

Potato 4,722 21% 73% 14,783 5% -13.7%

Onion 2,135 -59% 1% 6,643 8% -13%

Carrot 1,708 -26% -21% 2,790 22% 9%

Cabbage 1,787 0% 29% 1,787 1% 6% Source: FNB AgriComms

Carrots (5 major markets) Weakness in the car market continued as supplies remain high. Volumes of carrots traded rose by a whopping 22% w/w and 9% y/y at 2,790 tons. Weekly carrot prices finished at R1,708 per kg, down 26% w/w and 21% y/y. The generally higher volumes will continue to limit upside potential. Therefore prices are expected to trend sideways in the short term.

Cabbages (5 major markets) In the cabbage market, prices remained firm at R1,787 per ton and still 29% higher y/y. Volumes of cabbages traded came in at 1,787 tons, up 1% w/w and 6% y/y. The short term cabbage outlook remains bearish as supplies become increasingly available.

0

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04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16

Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

* last two data points are preliminary

Graph 6d: Fresh Produce Markets - Carrot prices

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04-Sep-15 08-Jan-16 13-May-16 16-Sep-16

Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

* last two data points are preliminary

Graph 6e: Fresh Produce Markets - Cabbage prices

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FNB Agri-Weekly Page 12

0

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03,0006,0009,000

12,00015,00018,00021,00024,00027,00030,00033,00036,000

05-Sep-15 04-Jan-16 04-May-16 02-Sep-16

Graph 7b: Fresh Produce Markets - Avocado prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

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05-Sep-15 04-Jan-16 04-May-16 02-Sep-16

Graph 7a: Fresh Produce Markets - Apple prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

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05-Sep-15 04-Jan-16 04-May-16 02-Sep-16

Graph 7e: Fresh Produce Markets - Mango prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

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Graph 7d: Fresh Produce Markets - Grapes prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

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05-Sep-15 04-Jan-16 04-May-16 02-Sep-16

Graph 7c: Fresh Produce Markets - Banana prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

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05-Sep-15 04-Jan-16 04-May-16 02-Sep-16

Graph 7f: Fresh Produce Markets - Pear prices

Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS)

The Fruit Market Trends – 5 Major Fresh Produce Markets in SA (Graphs 7a to 7f)

Source: FNB AgriComms

FRUIT PRICES: Major FPMs. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban)

Week ending 02 September

2016

Average Price (R/t)

w/w

y/y

Total Volume (t)

w/w

y/y

Apples 6,796 -2% 11% 2823 22% -8%

Avocados 12,767 8% 14% 419 -4% -6%

Bananas 7,186 -5% 64% 2722 26% -36%

Grapes 47,171 -8% 5% 46 57% 35%

Pears 31,393 -1% -11% 772 6% 38% Source: FNB AgriComms

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FNB Agri-Weekly Page 13

FNB Business – Agriculture Meet our dedicated team of Agricultural Managers in various regions of South Africa

Name Location Cell phone Email Address**

Grewar, Oosthuizen EASTERN CAPE -Port Elizabeth 071 607 6850 grewar.oosthuizen @fnb.co.za

Edmund, De Beer EASTERN CAPE -Port Elizabeth 084 656 5634 edebeer1 @fnb.co.za

David, Dobrowsky FREE STATE -Bethlehem 083 387 7977 ddobrowsky @fnb.co.za

Martin, Louw FREE STATE -Theunissen 082 784 8880 mlouw1 @fnb.co.za

Chris, Bekker FREE STATE -Bloemfontein 082 560 1894 cbekker @fnb.co.za

Jan, Theron GAUTENG -Pretoria 082 556 7494 jantheron @fnb.co.za

Greg, Sparrow KwaZulu-Natal -Pietermaritzburg 071 684 8420 greg.sparrow @fnb.co.za

Jurgens, du Preez KwaZulu-Natal -Newcastle 063 688 9146 jurgens.dupreez @fnb.co.za

Herman, Claassens LIMPOPO -Tzaneen 082 370 5718 herman.claassens @fnb.co.za

Adolf , Grobler LIMPOPO -Bela-Bela 082 337 6040 agrobler @fnb.co.za

Stephan, Scheepers MPUMALANGA -Nelspruit 082 377 8516 sscheepers2 @fnb.co.za

Theo, Verwey MPUMALANGA -Pretoria 082 419 6086 tverwey @fnb.co.za

Pedrie, Van der Merwe NORTHERN CAPE -Kimberly 071 351 3439 pedrie.vandermerwe @fnb.co.za

Frik, Coetzee NORTHERN CAPE -Upington 082 497 4769 frik.coetzee @fnb.co.za

Johan, De Klerk NORTH WEST -BRITS 082 776 3477 jdeklerk2 @fnb.co.za

Johan, Strydom NORTH WEST -Potchefstroom 082 497 2274 cstrydom @fnb.co.za

Johan, Beukes WESTERN CAPE -Stellenbosch 082 372 4656 jbeukes @fnb.co.za

Lize, Morris WESTERN CAPE -George 082 928 8546 lmorris @fnb.co.za

Arno, Cloete WESTERN CAPE -Willowbridge 082 302 3621 arno.cloete @fnb.co.za

**Please ignore the spaces in the Email addresses; they were inserted to break the links.

Disclaimer:

This report may contain certain opinions, predictions and assumptions and has been compiled from a variety of sources. Accordingly, you use the information

in this report (“this information”) at your own risk and should not rely on it as a substitute for obtaining any specific professional advice you require.

Accordingly, First National Bank, a division of FirstRand Bank Limited (“FNB”) provides no warranties or undertakings of any kind, whether express, implied or

otherwise, concerning this information, its accuracy and/or reliability. Neither FNB nor its holding company, subsidiaries or other group companies will be liable

to you for any claims, demands, expenses, losses or damages, of whatsoever nature, which you may suffer or incur by using this information.