Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (9th - 13th May '11)

8/6/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (9th - 13th May '11)

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AGRI MA

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09th May - 14th May 2011

AG RI MA RK ETAGRI MARKET S P I C E S E N D S H I G H E R O N A C T I V E B U Y I N G

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed

W e e k l y R e p o r t


2/7

Daily

Chart

JEERA (MAY)JEERA DECLINES ON WEAK EXPORT DEMAND W e e k l y R e p o r t

Jeera futures prices witnessed very choppy trade on

mixed response last week. From opening prices

started trading up on short covering at lower levels.

However, later on prices resumed down trend on

poor export demand however reduced arrivals at

spot market limited the losses and futures closed the

week on marginally negative note. Jeera May

futures are projected to open on slightly lower note

next week. Subdued export demand for Indian Jeera

weigh on prices. However, arrivals at spot market of

Unjha are declining continuously and further fall in

arrivals might support the prices to bounce back

during later half of the week. Arrivals at spot market

of Unjha were re-ported around 12,000-13,000

bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to traders,decline in production is estimated around 10% only

against the earlier expectations of 25-30% decline.

This year production is estimated around 23-25 lakh

bags against 28-30 lakh bags last year. As per trade

sources, by May-June crop expectations for Syria

and Turkey will also arrive at the market. According

to derivative analysis, prices and open interest are

falling while volumes are showing a positive move.

This indicates that trader's interest in selling this

commodity is more and they are shifting in the next

month contracts. Market is running out of traders

willing to open or hold an open short/sell. Traders

are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing

winning long positions.

Last week Jeera was bearish for most part

of the week and prices were not sustaining

at higher level but we saw some short

covering coming on the last day of the

week. Jeera has strong support at 14400

and price is not sustaining below this level.

For the next week Jeera has resistance

at15000 and support at 13900.

Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one

should use the strategy of sell on higher

levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains

below the level of 13900 then we can

expect the level of 13550, and if it sustains

above 15000 then we can see the level of

15300.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Weak export demand Profit selling

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS

MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

16400

15521

15024

14642

14145

13763

12884

w w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m 2

Global Research L imited

09th May - 14th May 2011


3/7

Daily

Chart

GUARSEED (MAY)GUARSEED CONTINUES UPTREND ON SHORT COVERING

The Guar seed and gum futures sustained the

positive trend last week. The demand for the Guar

gum prevailing across the spot markets is supportive

for the prices gain at futures. The concerns of

choosing cotton in the irrigated Gaur growing

regions are affecting market sentiments. The spot

prices also reasoned by Rs.100/quintal which had

same effect on the futures. The increase in the prices

while volume and open interest are decreasing

indicates that the prices might remain bearish for

short term. The basis of the Guar seed and Guar

gum basis has increased which might extend for the

next week. The Guar seed and Guar gum futures are

expected to open positive for the next week.

However profit booking on the previous rally cannotbe ruled out as the prices have touched the 3200

levels. These levels are much higher according to the

market participants which might prompt profit

booking. The concerns about the shift in acreage

from the Guar to cotton in the irrigated guar

producing belt are supportive for the prices to gain

initially. Lower stocks in pipeline might keep prices

positive at opening. Limited buying, absence of

fresh export demand and the decreased arrivals

might pressurize the prices at higher levels. The

sentimental effect of the normal monsoon

predictions cannot be ruled out till the on set of the

monsoon.

Last week Guarseed did our target of 3180

above the level of 3120 and even closed

near to it. Guarseed was bullish for most

part of the week but we saw slight profit

booking coming at higher levels. For the

next week Guarseed has resistance at

3230 and support at 3090.

For next week in Guar seed traders should

go for buying at lower levels strategy, if

Guar seed sustains above the level of 3230

we can see the level of 3270, and below

3090 it can touch the level of 3040.


Short covering Firm export demand


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

3584

3358

3264

3132

3038

2906

2680



W e e k l y R e p o r t09th May - 14th May 2011


4/7

Daily

Chart

SOYABEAN ( JUNE)SOYBEAN DROPS ON SELLING PRESSURE

The Indian Soybean futures market saw a sharpdecline last week on continued selling pressure andmade 6-week low. Most of the contracts traded onthe exchange made the biggest daily fall. Broadbased sell-off in global commodity market onconcerns of demand outlook had a bearish impacton Indian market. Domestic trader and investorsextended their selling on expectation of furthershrink in demand for oil and meal. Spot markets sawsubdued trading from traders and crushers amidthin supplies. Bearish trend in internationalmarketdriven by falling crude oil prices, improvingsupply situation and shrinking demandexertedpressure on the market. The NCDEX Soybeanfutures are projected to extend its bearish trend next

week on follow through selling. Dwindling demandfor Soybean from crushers and traders amid thinsupplies is likely to exert pressure on the market.Most of the crushers are away from active buyingdue to absence of fresh meal export orders and onpoor crush margin. The global demand for soy mealespecially from South East Asian countries is shiftingfrom India to Latin American countries. With thefull-fledged harvesting of soy crop in Brazil andArgentina, these countries are offering soy meal atmuch lower price thereby attracting global soy mealbuyers towards them. Indian market is likely to movein sync with weak overseas market. CBOT Soybeanfutures extended its bearish trend last week oncontinued selling pressure. Broad based sellingpressure in entire commodity market exerted

pressure on soy market also. Slowdown in exportenquiries and expectation of diversion of some ofintended corn acreage to soy also added bearishtrend to the market. Report of active rainfall inMidwest and Delta region of US has been promptingfarmers to switch intended corn acreage to soyplanting.

Last week Soybean did our target of 2340

below the level of 2380 and even closed

below it. Soybean remained bearish for

most part of the last week but we saw

some short covering coming at lower

levels. For the next week Soybean has

resistance at 2380 and support at 2270.

Soybean is moving in a consolidation

phase on charts and one should look for

selling opportunities at higher levels, if

Soybean sustains below the level of 2270

we can see the level of 2230, and on the

upside if it sustains above the level of 2380

we can see Soybean at 2410 level.


Weak Global Market Slow import demand


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

2710

2533

2434

2356

2257

2179

2002





5/7

Daily

Chart

CHANA ( JUNE)CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON FRESH BUYING

Chana spot and futures continued to trade firm on

account of improved buying at lower levels and

settled 0.70% and 0.25% higher respectively on

Wednesday. Increase in the prices of the peas also

supported Chana prices in the last two days. Chana

is close substitute of peas. Harvesting in Rajasthan,

the second largest Chana producing state in India

after MP is on its peak and would continue till mid

May. Apart from Chana, other Pulses like Tur are also

trading lower on expectations that the sowing

acreage might increase owing to normal monsoon.

Forecast of monsoon to be normal this season by

Indian Metrological Department released on 19th

April 2011 would be favorable for sowing of Kharif

Pulses. Production of Chana as well as Pulses in thecurrent crop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million

tonnes and 17.29 million tonnes respectively.

Planning Commission has estimated that the

demand for pulses in the country during the period

2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne. Globally, Canadian

Chickpeas output is expected to increase during

2010-11 to 1.28 lakh tonnes compared to 0.76 lakh

tonnes the previous year. We expect Chana prices in

the intraday to trade firm owing to improved buying

by the market participants. In the short term (Till

May), we expect prices to trade in the range of Rs.2,

275 2,450 per qtl levels. However, in the medium

term, we expect Chana prices to recover as prices

arrival pressure from the fresh crop would start

declining gradually. Also, fresh demand mightemerge thereby as prices would be trading almost

near the MSP levels. Thus from the long term

perspective, any significant decline in the prices may

be treated as a good buying opportunity expecting

prices to recover by Rs. 300-350 per qtl by June.

Last week initially in Chana we saw good

buying coming at lower levels, but later

profit booking came and it erased all the

early weekly gains. For the next week

Chana has resistance at 2455 and support

at 2370.

Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and

one should go for buying at lower levels

strategy in it. For the coming week if

Chana sustains above 2455 level we can

see it at 2490 and below 2370 we can

expect the level of 2340.


Fresh buying Lower level buying


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

2550

2483

2445

2416

2378

2349

2282





6/7

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPrevious

CloseOpen LowHigh Close

Qty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)*

* Turnover Till Friday

NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 20-MAY-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15197 15140 1426115140 14527 37599 -670 13074 48,466.37

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8830 8864 82708864 8470 16745 -360 12340 12,296.71

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 3058 3040 30003226 3171 1128210 113 146180 334,587.01

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8949 8860 88609560 9460 66065 37905511 52,037.58

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2400 2393 23872454 2408 495560 8 123440 111,906.30

SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 RS/QUINTAL 2459 2447 22782455 2336.5 244590 -122.5 148030 54,073.82

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 634.35 630.1 603.3633.1 615.7 405240 -18.65 98400 230,166.79

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2806 2792 26852811 2741 299220 -65 128210 74,009.56

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1142 1137 10911144 1126 200110 -16 63020 19,070.05

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 1058 1060 10501095.5 1056.5 55190 -1.5 11930 13,525.38

POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 452.2 451.8 438.7477.8 442 50400 -10.2 28320 2,138.82

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 30-APR-12 Kapas RS./20KG 850.3 845.5 757854.9 781 754 -69.3 222 884.94

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1221.4 1221.8 11911222 1196 19980 -25.4 21890 2,189.54

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAY-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1039.7 1035 9531053.9 962.6 2343 -77.1 476 8501.98CARDAMOM MCX 15- JUN-11 Cardamom RS/KG 1015.4 1010 904.51014 918.6 4605 -96.8 1020 3763.10

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 29151 29150 2783629490 28572 50230 -579 7434 138,229.52

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 14527 -4.41

NCDEX PEPPER 28572 -1.99

NCDEX TURMERIC 8470 -4.08

NCDEX GUARSEED 3171 3.70

NCDEX GUARGUM 9460 5.71

NCDEX CHANA 2408 0.33

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2336.5 -4.98

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 615.7 -2.94

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2741 -2.32

NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1126 -1.40

NCDEX GUR 1056.5 -0.14

NCDEX POTATO 442 -2.26

NCDEX KAPAS 781 -8.15

NCDEX WHEAT 1196 -2.08

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 962.6 -7.42

NCDEX CARDAMOM 918.6 -9.53


20-JUN-11



WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE


7/7

Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Weekly Gainers

GUARGUM 20-JUN-11 9460 5.71

GUARSEED 20-MAY-11 3171 3.70

Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

CARDAMOM 15 -JUN-11 918.6 -9.53

MENTHA OIL 31-MAY-11 962.6 -7.42

KAPAS 30- APR-12 781 -8.15

JEERA (MAY) 16400.67 15521.67 15024.33 14642.67 14145.33 13763.67 12884.67

PEPPER (MAY) 31940.67 30286.67 29429.33 28632.67 27775.33 26978.67 25324.67

TURMERIC (MAY) 9722.67 9128.67 8799.33 8534.67 8205.33 7940.67 7346.67

GUARSEED (MAY) 3584.33 3358.33 3264.67 3132.33 3038.67 2906.33 2680.33

CHANA (JUNE) 10693.33 9993.33 9726.67 9293.33 9026.67 8593.33 7893.33

CHANA (JUNE) 2550.33 2483.33 2445.67 2416.33 2378.67 2349.33 2282.33

SOYBEAN (JUNE) 2710.50 2533.50 2435.00 2356.50 2258.00 2179.50 2002.50

REFINED SOYA OIL (JUNE) 676.97 647.17 631.43 617.37 601.63 587.57 557.77

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (JUNE) 1226.33 1173.33 1149.67 1120.33 1096.67 1067.33 1014.33

GUR (JUL) 1158.33 1112.83 1084.67 1067.33 1039.17 1021.83 976.33

POTATO (JUNE) 531.03 491.93 466.97 452.83 427.87 413.73 374.63

KAPAS (APR 2012) 993.43 895.53 838.27 797.63 740.37 699.73 601.83

MENTHA OIL (MAY) 1191.63 1090.73 1026.67 989.83 925.77 888.93 788.03

CARDAMOM (JUNE) 1164.70 1055.20 986.90 945.70 877.40 836.20 726.70

WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE

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CHANA 20-JUN-11 2408 0.33



MUSTARD (JUNE) 2997.67 2871.67 2806.33 2745.67 2680.33 2619.67 2493.67

Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (9th - 13th May '11)

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Transcript of Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (9th - 13th May '11)