Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs....

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Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Transcript of Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs....

Page 1: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Lessons in Estimating

Agile vs. Waterfall

Agile and Waterfall

Jerry Richardson, PMPSohail Thaker, PMP

Page 2: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

2Copyright © 2011 Ethier All rights reserved.

Page 3: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

3Copyright © 2011 Ethier All rights reserved.

Page 4: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

• Why do we estimate?

• Developing Waterfall estimates

• Developing Agile estimates

• When to use each technique

Workshop Overview

• When to use each technique

• Keys to success

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Page 5: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Estimating vs. Planning

DevelopProjectFramework

DetermineResourceRequirements

Preparea Budget

Plan aPlan aProjectProject

DevelopWorkPlan

Developa Schedule

DevelopProjectControls

• Tasks• Estimates

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Page 6: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Why Develop Work Plan?

• Funding

• Resources

• Expectations

� It’s management’s job to vet our plan!

“Realistic & Defensible”6Copyright © 2011 Ethier All rights reserved.

Page 7: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Why Develop Work Plan?

• Who needs to be involved?

• What will each person do?

• When do certain tasks need to occur?

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Page 8: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

What Do We Estimate?

• Work Effort

• Elapsed Time

• Cost

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Page 9: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Waterfall Estimating

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Page 10: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Levels of Estimates

Project level estimate

Construct DeployDesignAnalyze

Top Down

ConstructDesignAnalyze

Bottom Up Bottom Up Bottom Up

Phase level estimates

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Page 11: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Bottom Up Estimating Technique

1. Break job into tasks (WBS)

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Page 12: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

WBS - ExamplePREPARE FOR TRIP

MAKE TRAVELARRANG’TS

PACKMAKE “HOUSE”ARRANG’TS

TRAVEL TO AIRPORT

COLLECTCANCEL ARRANGECONFIRM

MAKE RESERV’NS

COLLECTTRAVELDOCUMENTS

CANCELNEWSPAPER

ARRANGEHOUSE CHECK

PREPAREFINDSUITCASE

PACKCLOTHES

DECIDE WHATTO TAKE

WASHCLOTHES

IRONCLOTHES

CONFIRMDATES

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Page 13: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Bottom Up Estimating Technique

1. Break job into tasks (WBS)

2. Develop a task list

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Page 14: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Estimating Spreadsheet

Task Deliverable

Confirm Dates Dates Confirmed

Make Reservations

Reserv’ns

Collect Travel Docs

Passport, E-ticket

…(Etc.)

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Page 15: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Bottom Up Estimating Technique

1. Break job into tasks (WBS)

2. Develop a task list

3. For each task, estimate:

S – shortest effortS – shortest effort

L – longest effort

M – most likely effort

Note: M = (S + L)/2!!!!!

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Page 16: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Estimating Spreadsheet

Task Deliverable Assumptions S L M

Confirm Dates Dates Confirmed

Boss in office 5 20 5

Make Reservations

Res’ns In-house travel agent

15 30 20

Collect Travel Docs

Passport, E-ticket

…(Etc.)

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Page 17: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Bottom Up Estimating Technique

4. Calculate the best estimate, E

E = S + L + 4M6

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Page 18: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Estimating Spreadsheet

Task Deliverable Assumptions S L M E

Confirm Dates Dates Confirmed

Boss in office 5 15 5 7

Make Reservations

Res’ns In-house travel agent

15 30 20 21

Collect Travel Docs

Passport, E-ticket

…(Etc.)

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Page 19: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Bottom Up Estimating

4. Calculate the best estimate, E

E = S + L + 4M6

5. Add contingency (10-20%)5. Add contingency (10-20%)

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Page 20: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Contingency Factors

• Project size

• Project duration

• Project organization

• Technical complexity• Technical complexity

• Stability of business area

• Project team experience

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Page 21: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Levels of Estimates

Project level estimate

Construct DeployDesignAnalyze

Top Down

ConstructDesignAnalyze

Bottom Up Bottom Up Bottom Up

Phase level estimates

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Page 22: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Top Down Estimating

• All Top Down estimates are a range

• Techniques

– Equation

• % of effort for each phase

– Comparison

• similarity to another company project

– Analogy

• similarity to a database of projects

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Page 23: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Top Down Estimating

Equation Approach – “Ball Park” Example

% of

Total Time

InitiateInitiate

Analyze 5 - 15%

Design 15 - 30%

Construct 40 - 70%

Deploy 10 - 25%23Copyright © 2011 Ethier All rights reserved.

Page 24: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Top Down Estimating

Equation Approach – “Ball Park” Example

Initiate 2 daysAnalyze (est’d) 8 days

10 days10 days

5% of total project = 10 days

total project = 200 days

15% of total project = 10 days

total project = 67 days

“Ball Park” Estimate = 70 – 200 days24Copyright © 2011 Ethier All rights reserved.

Page 25: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Keys to Success

• Start with a “ball park” and compare to your bottom up estimate

• Use your team

• Ask for input

• Estimate next phase as part of current phase

• Document assumptions

• Verify spreadsheets

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Page 26: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

• Agile Manifesto

• Many versions

• Focused on software development

• Incorporates many best practices

What is Agile?

• Incorporates many best practices

• Focus on “features”

• Business needs to be very involved

• Iterative delivery of features

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Page 27: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Construct DeployDesignAnalyze

WATERFALL

AGILE

Agile Iterations

AGILE

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Page 28: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

• Developing Agile Estimates

• What is Velocity and how do you use it

Agile Estimating

• What is Velocity and how do you use it for Planning & Refining Estimates?

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Page 29: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Law of Diminishing Returns

• The more effort we put into something, the better result. Right?

• Law of Diminishing Returns – additional estimation effort yields very little value beyond a certain point.

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Page 30: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Estimating: Accuracy vs. Effort

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Page 31: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Agile Assumptions

• Estimates are shared

• Core team is dedicated

• Complete a feature/user story in one iteration

• Final product details are • Final product details are not completely known

• Business support

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Page 32: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

User Stories, Epics & Themes

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Page 33: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Ideal Days vs. Story Points

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Page 34: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Point Estimating Scales

• Fibonacci Sequence

– 1,2,3,5,8

– (+ 13,20,40,100 for epics, themes)

• T-Shirt Sizing• T-Shirt Sizing

– Small, Med, Large, X-Large

• 1,2,4,8

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Page 35: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Planning Poker

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Page 36: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Points Example• Feature 1 - 8 points (M)

• Feature 2 - 8 points (M)

• Feature 3 - 3 points (S)

• Feature 4 - 13 points (L)

• Feature 5 - 3 points (S)

• Feature 6 - 40 points (XL)

...

• ETC - NN points

_______________________________

TOTAL = 500 points for project

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Page 37: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Validating Story Point Estimates

• Time Estimates

– Pick some sample user stories

– Break down to task level

– Estimate hours – Estimate hours

– Calculate how long it will take, in real hours,

to develop a small, a medium, etc.

• Boundary Samples

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Page 38: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Agile Estimating: Results

• Master Story List with points for each story

• Apply the real estimates to get an overall estimate of the size of the project

• Build in some contingency• Build in some contingency

• Relatively accurate estimates for next few iterations

• Minimized time estimating

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Page 39: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

What is Velocity?

• Velocity determination

• Self-correcting• Self-correcting

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Page 40: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Watch for Velocity Trends

• Example:

– Estimated 500 points for a project

– Team initially estimates they can complete 50 points per iteration

– Initial estimate = 500/50 = 10 iterations to – Initial estimate = 500/50 = 10 iterations to complete project

– If first iterations average at 75 points, then team was too cautious and 500/75 = 7 iterations

– If first iterations average at 40 points, then team was too optimistic and 500/75 = 13 iterations40

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Page 41: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Track Progress Using Points

• Total Points Completed, Points Remaining

• Percent of Points completed

• Number of iterations to Complete

• Number of weeks/months to complete• Number of weeks/months to complete

• Impact of changing resources to velocity

• PM can add in factors once trends established

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Page 42: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Using Velocity to Plan

• Reduce scope

– deselect some specific stories (features)

• Increase capacity (size) of team

– add to team velocity

• Reduce cost by reducing resources • Reduce cost by reducing resources

– slow down velocity

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Page 43: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Agile vs. Waterfall

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Page 44: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

PROS• Fail Fast• Working deliverables provided frequently • Don’t need fully detailed requirements to start• Tight feedback loop allows for requirement changes

throughout the project

Agile: Pros & Cons

CONS• No detailed design phase makes it difficult to

estimate the cost and duration of the whole project• Best applied to software development

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Page 45: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

PROS• Detailed design phase gives better understanding to

estimate the duration of the whole project • Detailed design done by the experienced developers

allow for more inexperienced developers (or outsourcing of development)

• Enforced discipline by clear phasing with defined start and end points (milestones)

Waterfall: Pros & Cons

• Enforced discipline by clear phasing with defined start and end points (milestones)

CONS• Big overhead caused by detailed early-phase

planning, as plans tend to change• Limited working deliverables until the very end of the

project

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Page 46: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Choosing an Approach

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Page 47: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

�Buy vs. Build (Waterfall, Agile, Blended)

• Business Availability

• Organization Maturity

• Technical Complexity

How Do We Choose?

• Technical Complexity

• Understood vs. New

• Market Maturity

• Competitive Advantage

• Logical Feature Sets

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Page 48: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Selection Criteria

BuyBuild

WaterfallBuild Agile

Don’t Do It

Business Availability

Very Low ����

Low / Medium ���� ����

Medium / High ���� ���� ����

Business Maturity

Start-Up Organization ����

Mature Organization ���� ���� ����

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Page 49: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Selection Criteria

BuyBuild

WaterfallBuild Agile

Don’t Do It

Technical Complexity

Low ����

Medium ���� ����

High ���� ����

Understood vs. New

New Territory ����

Well Understood ���� ����

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Page 50: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Selection Criteria

BuyBuild

WaterfallBuild Agile

Don’t Do It

Market Maturity

No packages available ���� ����

Some packages available ���� ����

Many packages available ����

Competitive Advantage

Not required ����

Required ���� ����

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Page 51: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Selection Criteria

BuyBuild

WaterfallBuild Agile

Don’t Do It

Logical Feature Sets

Small discrete groups ����

Big – Need All ���� ����

• Look at all the aspects before selecting the

appropriate approach

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Page 52: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

• Both techniques have pros & cons

• Agile and Waterfall –know when to use each technique

Conclusions

technique

• “Buy” when you can!

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Page 53: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Q & A

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Page 54: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

Some PM Truths Don’t Change…

• The more ridiculous the

deadline the more

money will be wasted

trying to meet it.

• The first 90% of a

project takes 90% of the

time the last 10% takes

the other 90%.

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Page 55: Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall · 2015. 5. 31. · Lessons in Estimating Agile vs. Waterfall Agile and Waterfall Jerry Richardson, PMP Sohail Thaker, PMP

jrichardson

@ethier.ca

sthaker

Thanks!

sthaker

@ethier.ca

www.ethier.ca

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