Agile Patterns: Estimation - Stephen Forte | FalafelCON 2014
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Transcript of Agile Patterns: Estimation - Stephen Forte | FalafelCON 2014
Making Agile Es-ma-on Work
Stephen Forte @worksonmypc
I’m Steve
Es-ma-on Defined (sort of)
• Problem is that es.mates become a unbreakable schedule, where any devia.on is considered bad
“Es$ma$on is the calculated approxima$on of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.”
— Wikipedia
The Es-ma-on Problem • When you come up with a project idea, your first es.mate is off by +/4x • Not enough details are known
• Tradi.onally too much .me is spent on building a specifica.on which is not complete • Again, not enough details are known
• As .me progresses, more details emerge about the system and its details • The cone of uncertainty
The Cone of Uncertainty 4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
.8x
.67x
.5x
25x
Agile Es-ma-on • Es.ma.on is uncertain by defini.on! • Problem is that es.mates become an unbreakable schedule, where any devia.on is considered bad
• Agile Es.ma.on throws this logic away and always re-‐es.mates a project aIer each itera.on • Different value system, devia.ons are not devia.ons, they are more accurate es.ma.ons • Uses the cone of uncertainty to your advantage
How to Es-mate
User Stories
Story Points
Planning Poker
Product Backlog
Velocity
Re-‐es-ma-on
Beyond Es-ma-on: Metrics
Reading List
Books we have read and recommend: • User Stories Applied by Mike Cohn • Agile Es0ma0ng and Planning by Mike Cohn • Agile Retrospec0ves by Esther Derby and Diana Larsen
Ques-ons?