Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.
-
Upload
clement-bond -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.
![Page 1: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ageing and productivity
Pekka Ilmakunnas
Vegard Skirbekk
Jan van Ours
Matthias Weiss
![Page 2: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SET-UP
• Setting the Stage
• The Grand View
• Empirical studies– Absenteeism– Working capacity– Productivity: team level – plant level
• Conclusions and policy implications
![Page 3: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SETTING THE STAGE
![Page 4: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Labour force participation rates; 2003
0
10
2030
40
50
60
7080
90
100
15 to 19 20 to 24 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69
EU 15
Italy
Japan
USA
![Page 5: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Population Western Europe 2010-2050 (1000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2050 20
30 2010
2050
2030
2010
![Page 6: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Old age dependency ratio & participation rates 50-64
• Old age dep. ratio = Population 65+ / 20-64
• Increase 2000-2050: moderate – very large
• Participation rates 50-64: high – low
• Extremes– Scandinavian countries, Switzerland, US– Southern Europe (including Italy)
![Page 7: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Participation rates 2003 – males
80 85 90 95 10010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Australia
AustriaBelgium
Canada Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Lux
Netherlands
NZNorway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden Switzerland
UKUS
Age 50-54
Ag
e 6
0-6
4
![Page 8: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
“Older people should be forced to retire
when jobs are scarce”
37,5 40 42,5 45 47,5 50 52,5 55 57,5 60 62,5 65 67,5 700
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
USSweden
Denmark
Norway
UKNetherlands
GermanyFrance
Italy
Spain
Employment rate men 55-64
Agre
em
ent w
ith s
tate
ment
![Page 9: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Age of labour market entry and exit by birth cohort and educational attainment;
Italy
Men
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
Birth cohort
Ag
e
![Page 10: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Duration of labour market attachment
Men
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1915-19 1940-45 1915-19 1940-45 1915-19 1940-45 1915-19 1940-45 1915-19 1940-45
Finland France Germany Italy UK
Education 1 Education 2 Education 3
![Page 11: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Norway 1801 and 2001, ages 41-90
both genders
![Page 12: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Setting the Stage - conclusions
• Long term developments: people grow older and work fewer years
• Work fewer years: preferences, incentives and misperceptions
• Future: increase labour supply of older workers
• Question: Age Productivity?
![Page 13: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
THE GRAND VIEW
![Page 14: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Some causes of age-variation in
productivity
Motivation, Energy
Job Experience
Mental Abilities, Personality
Work PerformancePhysical Abilities, Health, Strength
Education
Age
Firm Characteristics
Region, Industry Type
![Page 15: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Components individual productivity
• Physical strength
• Experience
• Cognitive abilities:– Crystallized: verbal ability; age – Fluid: speed, memory; age
![Page 16: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Importance of various abilities
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Ability
Im
port
ance
![Page 17: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Productivity variation of the life cycle Combining abilities
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65Age
Pro
du
cti
vit
y P
ote
nti
al
![Page 18: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Alternative relationships
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65
Age
Pro
du
cti
vit
y P
ote
nti
al
Manager -Communication
Numerical -Analytical
![Page 19: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Changes over time
• Supply: better health, better mental performance, longevity
• Demand: physical strength less important, reduced working day
![Page 20: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Grand View – conclusions
• Abilities not constant over age and cohorts
• Various components are affect differently by ageing
![Page 21: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Measuring productivity (not easy)
• Managers’ ratings of employees
• Employees self-assessment
• Measure productivity directly
• Linked employer-employee datasets
![Page 22: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
EMPIRICAL STUDIES on AGE and PRODUCTIVITY
Extensive margin: absenteeism
Subjective measure: work capacity
Intensive margin: team & plant level
![Page 23: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Absenteeism – data
• Germany: Assembly plant of a German car manufacturer – any work day 2003-2004
• Finland: Quality of Working Life Survey (QWLS) 2003
![Page 24: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Individual absence rates assembly line German car manufacturer
![Page 25: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Age and absenteeism survey of Finnish employees
0.2
.4.6
.81
Share
with a
bsences
Age
0.5
11
.52
Num
be
r of
ab
sence
s
Age
05
10
15
20
25
Days o
f absen
ce
Age
05
10
15
Dura
tio
n o
f a
typic
al a
bse
nce
Age
![Page 26: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Absenteeism - conclusions
• Age: negative effect on incidence, positive effect on duration; overall positive effect on absence rate
• Age diversity: higher absence rates
![Page 27: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Working capacity: self assessment
Assuming that your top working capacity would score 10 points
While your total inability to work would score 0 points
How many points would you give your working capacity at the moment?
![Page 28: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
01
23
45
67
89
10
Wo
rkin
g c
ap
aci
ty
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65Age
![Page 29: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Top working capacity and the effect of chronic illness
0.2
.4.6
Pro
bab
ility o
f to
p w
ork
ing c
ap
acity
-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-Age
No chronic illness Chronic illness
![Page 30: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Working capacity - conclusions
• Age Working capacity • Fall not dramatic, 0.3 points in 10 years
• Faster drop for jobs in which physical strength is required
• Technological change: influence of age becomes smaller
![Page 31: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Productivity – intensive margin
• Individual productivity available only in special cases
• Plant level & firm level data effects of:– Age– Age diversity
![Page 32: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Age – Productivity – team level
• DaimlerChrysler; 2003-2004
• Productivity = quality = 1/errors
• Decreases with age
• Increases with job tenure
• More age diverse teams make more mistakes
![Page 33: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Age – Productivity – plant level
• Finnish Linked Employer-Employee Data (FLEED); 1990-2002
• Industrial plants – total factor productivity
• No effect of age diversity
![Page 34: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Relationship changes over time1
.61
.71
.81
.92
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
log
(TF
P)
30 35 40 45 50Average age
1990 19952000
![Page 35: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Accounting for plant cohort and tenure effects
22
.12
.22
.32
.42
.5
log
(TF
P)
30 35 40 45 50Average age
Tenure and cohort contro lled Plant cohort controlledNeither contro lled
![Page 36: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Conclusions
• Age-productivity relationship complex and multidimensional
• Relationship changes over time (across cohorts) and is affected by other factors
• Absenteeism • Work capacity • Productivity • Age diversity?
![Page 37: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Policy implications
• Retirement plans– Anticipating early retirement reduces investments in
human capital; actuarial neutral pension schemes
• Wage policies– Reduce seniority as a basis for wages
• Human resource management– More easy to try to prevent dismissals of older workers
than it is to encourage hiring of older workers
• Employment Protection Legislation– Experience rating of dismissal costs
![Page 38: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Negative effects of age on Negative effects of age on productivity should not be productivity should not be
underestimatedunderestimated
![Page 39: Ageing and productivity Pekka Ilmakunnas Vegard Skirbekk Jan van Ours Matthias Weiss.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649d955503460f94a7e0f6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Should not be exaggerated eitherShould not be exaggerated either