After Benazir (Trusted sources report)

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After BenazirTrusted Sources > India > Regional Security 09 Jan 2008

Overview

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a serious setback for moderates in Pakistan, but it is tooearly to tell how severely it will destabilise the country. The resultant bitterness created betweenthe government and the opposition could lead to a fresh political confrontation if the oppositionwins enough seats to challenge President Pervez Musharraf in the parliamentary electionsscheduled for 18 February.

An extended political standoff could exacerbate instability and renew fears of eventual statedisintegration. However, self-correcting mechanisms such as political actors willing to reachcompromises make the revival of normal politics a probable outcome. Pakistan's political parties

still have strong support among voters and their return to power in one form or another would helpcompensate for the blow caused by Benazir's killing. We believe the new army chief would alsobe willing to remove Musharraf if doing so would help protect the army's national standing thathas weakened in recent months.

Core Case

Despite looming confrontation between thegovernment and opposition parties, politicalcompromise will likely stabilise Pakistan near-term

Assumptions and Evidence

Support for the government is dwindling

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Core Case

The challenge

The 27 December assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is a clear victory forreligious extremists. It deprives the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), arguably the country's mostpopular party, of a charismatic leader. It is also a blow to President Pervez Musharraf, who hasbeen accused by opposition activists of being complicit in Benazir's killing.

Musharraf's grip has steadily weakened over the past year. He was pressured by the US to reacha political compromise with Benazir and international and domestic opprobrium forced him to enda state of emergency after six weeks. Musharraf's approval ratings have slipped from 63 per centin September 2006 to 30 per cent in November 2007, and have probably dipped further since.

Although a free and fair election would help forestall instability by re-legitimising the governmentand giving a range of societal groups the impression that they have a stake in the Pakistani state,continuing differences between the government and opposition parties make a confrontation likely

following the National Assembly elections that are now scheduled for 18 February. Oppositionparties have criticised the postponement of the elections in an effort to prevent the PPP fromcapitalising on sympathy for Benazir and to help the pro-army Pakistan Muslim League (PML)revive its campaign, although it is hard to see how the election could have been held as originallyscheduled on 8 January.

The danger for Pakistan is that an extended confrontation between the army and the oppositionwould lead to policy paralysis and the continuing de-legitimisation of the state. This wouldexacerbate ethnic separatism - never far beneath the surface - as well as provide an opportunityfor religious extremists to assert themselves. The relationship between the two varies. Cross-border Pashtun networks sustain religious extremists in the tribal region adjoining Afghanistan,while in energy-rich Balochistan province the government relies on religious radicals to undercutsecular Baloch nationalists. The army has sought to dispel any impression of paralysis by

continuing its military operations against pro-Taliban insurgents in the tribal region, but it remainsquestionable how long this could sustain itself if domestic instability were to increase.

The army is in a bind: it needs the support of opposition parties to achieve its declared goal ofeliminating threats to the state, yet is unwilling to make the political compromises required to winthis support. It continues to prefer 'unity of command' over a more chaotic but sustainabledemocratic system, although its power to enforce this vision has declined in recent months.

The elections and after

A November 2007 poll found that, if elections were free and fair, Bhutto's PPP would receive 30per cent of the vote, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by Nawaz Sharif 25 percent and the pro-army PML would come third with 23 per cent. It is likely that the PPP share of

the vote has increased further, following Benazir's assassination. With the conservative votedivided between the PML and PML-N, the PPP appears positioned to win a plurality, perhapseven a majority, of National Assembly seats.

After Benazir 09 Jan 2008

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Projected National Assembly vote, November 2007 (%)

Although some electoral manipulation remains likely given its grip over the judiciary and ElectionCommission, the government may have to tone down its usual strategy of intimidating oppositioncandidates, using state power to favour pro-army candidates and preventing the media fromclosely observing election processes. The government will also have to factor in the possibility ofexplosive public ire if it goes too far.

Assuming that it emerges from the elections as the largest party, the PPP will then face a choicebetween reaching a working equation with Musharraf and the army - as Benazir had intended

prior to Musharraf's November emergency declaration - and allying with the PML-N to form ademocratic front that forces through legislation to reverse Musharraf's constitutional changes andreinstate the Supreme Court justices who were arrested and removed by Musharraf during hisshort-lived emergency.

Although a covert working relationship with the establishment cannot be totally ruled out, eventsare pushing these parties towards a renewed confrontation with Musharraf. The bitternesscreated by the government's apparent failure to prevent Benazir's assassination, as well as itsham-handed efforts to rob her of martyr status by claiming that the assassin's bullets had missedtheir target, has reduced the likelihood of any reconciliation.

Musharraf's future

A political standoff between a newly-elected opposition coalition and the establishment, as islikely, could be resolved in several ways. The most stable would be a decision by Chief of ArmyStaff General Ashfaq Kiani to accept civilian supremacy for the most part and return the army tothe barracks with the understanding that it will continue to play a major role in national security.Such a compromise would most likely require the resignation of Musharraf who has become alightning rod for opposition. It would lead to a revival of normal politics in the country, restore thegovernment's legitimacy and forestall the chaos and policy paralysis that religious extremists areundoubtedly hoping for.

Kiani's motivation for a conciliatory approach would be to protect the reputation of the army,which has long been seen as a pillar of the Pakistani nation. Polls show that the army's approvalrating fell sharply from 80 per cent to 55 per cent between June and November 2007, comparedwith 78 per cent for the media and 68 per cent for the judiciary. The Pakistani army has never





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hesitated to remove allied leaders from power in order to protect its national standing, as it didwith President Iskander Mirza (1958), Field Marshal Ayub Khan (1969) and General Yahya Khan(1971), and there is little doubt that Musharraf could suffer the same fate.

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A second option, given strong apparent support for Musharraf from the US government, is acompromise between the new government and a weakened Musharraf. It is hard to see how thiscould be sustained given Musharraf's clear distaste for sharing real power and the intenseanimosity towards him among PPP and PML-N political cadres. Sooner or later, such anarrangement is bound to break down, leading to renewed instability.

The army and Musharraf could always circumvent the entire process by further delayingelections, but this appears less likely following their experience of the six week-long emergencythat came to an end under international and domestic pressure.

In short, a confrontation between the government and opposition parties following the electionsappears to be in the cards, which could lead to policy paralysis and provide political opportunitiesfor religious radicals. However, as we argued in our November report ' Crisis in Pakistan', thesystem does have self-correcting mechanisms in the form of an army that would sacrificeMusharraf if necessary and political parties willing to take up the mantle of governance if giventhe opportunity.

Whether these parties can deliver governance is a separate question. Neither the PPP nor thePML-N was particularly impressive during its tenure in power. Benazir's husband Zardari waswidely believed to be corrupt, while the coup d'etat that led to Sharif's exile in 1999 followed histrampling of independent institutions - including the judiciary that he so zealously defends today -and was provoked by what the army perceived as unnecessary interference in its affairs.

But the point is that these flaws are more than compensated for by the inclusive effects ofdemocracy and strong institutions that offer a fair shot at power to a range of societal groups.Musharraf was once hailed as an antidote to democratic excesses, and continues to win supportfrom the US and India for his dextrous policy turnarounds, but his progressive alienation of across-section of Pakistani society now endangers his professed goal of combating extremism.



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The future of Benazir's party

The PPP is a curious combination of a modern political party capable of conducting democratic

politics and a Sindh-based feudal party that relies for sustenance on the Bhutto family's charisma.It was founded in 1967 by Benazir's father Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who became a martyr in hissupporters' eyes after he was executed by a military regime in 1979. Benazir now joins the ranksof martyred PPP leaders, and her father's killing by the army provides a ready template for thosewho see the army once again responsible for the slaying of another Bhutto. It also explains theappointment of Benazir's 19-year old son Bilawal as the party president, even though he isstudying at Oxford and prohibited by law from taking part in elections until he turns 25.

The question is now whether the PPP, on whose electoral success rested Western hopes toreverse the tide of extremism in Pakistan, will survive as a unitary force in the coming months.This is a dramatic change from our November analysis in which the question was whether theexclusion of the PML-N and the consequent weakening of the centre-right would be healthy fordemocracy. (The PML-N is a conservative Punjab-based party that could also perform well in theelections.)

For the moment, the party is being led by consensus by a group of leaders that includes vice-chairman and prime ministerial candidate Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Benazir's husband Asif AliZardari and others. Although an election victory followed by a grab for spoils could lead todiscord, this appears to be a stable arrangement in the immediate future. Much will also dependon the PPPs choices regarding coalition partners and its cadres' response.

Absent from this list is imprisoned PPP leader Aitzaz Ahsan, a prominent lawyer who led the judicial protest movement following Musharraf's unconstitutional dismissal of the Supreme Courtchief justice in March 2007. Ahsan's return to the party fold, if he is released, would be animportant step for the party given his popularity amongst the urban middle class, particularly inconservative stronghold Punjab. However, this independent-minded leader is viewed withsuspicion by other party officials, and even Benazir attempted to marginalise him within theorganisation.

There was always the danger that Benazir's killing would lead to a revival of Sindhi nationalism inantipathy to the Punjabi-dominated establishment. But with the prospect of national power close,the PPP has publicly repudiated ethnic nationalism as a political strategy. Although anyweakening of the state over time could lead to a rise in the kind of ethnic separatism that hasbeen a feature in Balochistan province, this is not a factor in the immediate future. Indeed, aresumption of normal politics could quell, rather than exacerbate, separatism by bringing moremarginal parties into the political process - something Musharraf has failed to do despite pressurefrom his own PML allies.





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Assumptions and EvidenceA slight improvement in Musharraf's approval rating is likely to have been reversed followingBenazir's assassination as opposition supporters focus their anger on the government's inabilityto prevent her killing.

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Prior to her assassination, Benazir was the most popular leader in Pakistan followed closely bySharif and Musharraf. This also reflected their respective parties' anticipated vote shares in theelections to the National Assembly then scheduled for 8 January. Following her assassination,there is likely to be an increase in support for Benazir's PPP and a drop in support for Musharraf,and Sharif's spontaneous arrival at the hospital where Benazir died and his emotional reaction toher death could also create positive momentum in his favour.

As a result, unless the government approves blatant election violations, the PPP and PML-Nshould perform strongly in the elections.





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After Benazir (Trusted sources report)

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