AfTA Profiting with Volume Profiling Techniques 011712 Profiting with Volume... · ·...
Transcript of AfTA Profiting with Volume Profiling Techniques 011712 Profiting with Volume... · ·...
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Profiting with Volume Profiling Techniques
with Frank Ochoa
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Agenda
• Application
• Basic VPOC Guidelines
• Qualifying the Setups
• VP Trend Analysis
• VP Composite Analysis
• Introduction to VP
• What is VP?
• Why is VP Powerful?
• Who Can Use VP?
• Theory & Key Terms
• Auction Market Theory
• The VAP Indicator
• VPOC, HVAs and LVAs
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What is Volume Profiling?
• Helps you SEE where market participants are putting their money to work
• Helps you identify important areas of interest, and non-interest
• Helps you anticipate potential market movement
• Has become very popular
Volume Profiling is the use of volume distribution analysis to identify areas of value and non-value.
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VP vs. MP
• Price-Based, market-generated information
• Does NOT tell you HOW MUCH traded at a certain price
• Is restricted by time (TPOs)
• Helps identify value, overbought, and oversold conditions
• Leading information; zero lag
• Allows for an array of analytical methods
• Volume-Based, market-generated information
• Tells you HOW MUCH traded at a certain price
• Not restricted by time, it’s built in
• Helps identify value, overbought, and oversold conditions
• Leading information; zero lag
• Allows for an array of analytical methods
Volume Profiling Market Profiling
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Why is VP Powerful?
• Visually appealing; easier to “read” the market
• Helps easily identify value, and over/undervalued areas
• Helps forecast future prices
• Great for trend analysis
• Powerful for confluence
• Great for multiple timeframe analysis
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Who Can Use VP?
• EVERYONE!
• Novice traders, experienced traders, and traders with and without prior VP experience
• VP is market-generated information, so it can be used on ALL timeframes - perfect for day, swing, position traders
• It works on any chart with volume action -perfect for stocks, ETFs, and futures
• No fancy add-ons required; only requires access to a Volume at Price indicator
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Theory & Key Terms
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Auction Market Theory
• The market operates solely to facilitate trade
• Price is a tool used to advertise value
• Price auctions up to motivate sellers, and down to motivate buyers
• Price auctions higher until the last buyer has bought, and auctions lower until the last seller has sold
• When buyers/sellers find an agreeable price, they trade in large volume; establish “value”
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The Volume at Price Indicator• The Volume at Price (VAP) indicator plots a horizontal histogram of
the cumulative volume traded at each price level.
HVA VPOC
LVA
LVA
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Standard Volume vs. VAPStandard volume plots the amount of volume that traded during a particular bar (period of time), whereas VAP displays how much volume traded at specific price levels.
Unfair Value
Fair Value
Fair/Unfair pricing cannot be seen with standard
volume
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The Volume Point of Control
• VPOC is similar to MP’s POC, but is purely volume-based
• Identifies the fairest price to both buyers and sellers; signifies fair value
• VPOC can remain an important reference point for many days (even weeks)
The price level where the most volume traded for a given period of time.
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VPOC as a Point of Reference
1. The market establishes value at $70.71
2. Market seeks new value; establishes
VPOC at $69.18
3. Market eventually returns to prior area of
established value
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VPOC as a Point of Reference
The market will often ‘test’ VPOC before price discovery
occurs
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HVAs and LVAs
• Help you identify market sentiment, and anticipate price behavior
• Help identify areas of acceptance (value), and areas that are unfairly priced
• These areas can both attract and repel price; act as both support and resistance
High and Low Volume Areas can be used as reference points that allow a trader to anticipate market behavior and identify areas of
acceptance and non-interest.
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High Volume Areas (HVAs)
• HVAs are the “fat” part of the VP distribution
• Identifies prices that are the most accepted by traders
• This area offers the best facilitation of trade; the market will gladly trade within this price area for a while
• Price will gravitate to HVAs in order to facilitate trade
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From one HVA to the Next
3. If price levels are seen as unfair, price will
auction back to prior value (HVA)
2. Price will auction from one HVA to the next in order to find fair facilitation of trade
1. Once fair facilitation of trade has been found, the market can
trade in this area for a while
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Low Volume Areas (LVAs)
• LVAs are the “skinny” part of the VP distribution
• Identifies areas that traders view as unfairly priced
• This area does NOT offer a good facilitation of trade
• Price will usually trade quickly thru LVAs in order to reach the next area of acceptance (HVA)
• LVAs also serve as stern resistance
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LVAs are Support/Resistance3. Price is rejected by LVA, remains within HVA. Later, price auctions back to HVA
after reaching prior LVA
2. A VERY swift move usually occurs when an LVA is penetrated; price heads
to next HVA
1. LVA serves as support
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Naked/Virgin VPOCs
• Naked VPOCs are treated like unfilled gaps, which are usually seen as needing to be “filled”, or tested
• Tend to have a high “fill” rate
• Are used as excellent targets
• Become less important the longer price stays away from the naked level
Naked VPOCs are areas of value that went “untouched” during their session of origin.
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Naked VPOCs: Creation/Filling
Naked VPOCs tend to be created during trending markets
Eventually, the market will want to “fill” the naked
VPOCs before new business can be done
Filled Naked
Filled
Naked
Naked
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Application
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Application
• Basic VPOC Guidelines
• Qualifying the Setups
• VP Trend Analysis
• VP Composite Analysis
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Basic Guidelines for VPOC
• In a bullish market, look to buy at or below VPOC
• In a bearish market, look to sell at or above VPOC
• Target objective is a new high/low within the trend
VPOC is considered fair value. Price levels above VPOC are considered overvalued, and undervalued below it.
• In a trading range market, look to sell above VPOC
• In a trading range market, look to buy below VPOC
• Target objective becomes VPOC, and opposing S/R
Trending Range
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Qualifying the Setups
• Note where price closes prior day in relation to price range and value
• Where price closes session gives bias for upcoming day
• Note where price opens the day in relation to price range and value
• Where price opens the session gives overnight bias and confirmation/rejection of prior bias
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Noting the Open and Close
Higher Value scenario indicates more strength ahead, especially with prior Close and current Open above value
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Noting the Open and Close
Prior Close confirms Higher Value scenario, but bearish Open rejects
this theory
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Noting the Open and Close
Prior Close confirms Lower Value scenario, but bullish Open rejects
this theory
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VP Trend Analysis
• Buy at support (HVA) in a bull trend
• Sell at resistance (HVA) in a bear trend
• Keeps you disciplined to the trend
• Keeps focus on higher probability opportunities
VP Trend Analysis forces you to become disciplined to the trend by buying HVAs in an uptrend, and selling HVAs in a downtrend.
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VP Trend Analysis: Bull
Buy at Support(HVA) in a bull trend
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VP Trend Analysis: Bull
Buy at Support(HVA) in a bull trend
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VP Trend Analysis: Bull
Buy at Support(HVA) in a bull trend
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VP Trend Analysis: Bear
Sell at Resistance(HVA) in a bear trend
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VP Trend Analysis: BearSell at Resistance
(HVA) in a bear trend
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VP Trend Analysis: Bear
Sell at Resistance(HVA) in a bear trend
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VP Composite Analysis
• Macro composites allow for long term analysis
• Micro composites allow for short term analysis
• Helps you identify important areas of interest/non-interest
• Helps you identify areas of confluence
VP Composite Analysis allows you to view cumulative volume distribution for multiple days/months at a time.
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Guidelines for VP Composites• Consider only the most relevant
data for the timeframe you are analyzing
• Micro: include latest data for most recent price action (days)
• Macro: include latest data for most recent price action (months)
• Identify and mark the most significant HVAs and LVAs
• Overlay key levels onto the chart you will be trading
Marked closest section of LVA from Macro composite onto intraday
chart
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VP Comps: MCZ1
Macro LVA also coincides with Micro LVA at 860, making this level extremely
important for a breakout or reversal
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VP Comps: MCZ1
The 860 LVA has been major resistance, leading to swift reversals and a significant
breakout
Study price behavior around significant LVAs to anticipate
a rejection or breakout
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VP Comps: ESZ1
This 10-day VP Comp helps identify the significant LVAs
and HVAs for the day
LVA
LVA
LVA
HVA
HVA
LVA
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VP Comps: ESZ1
This 175-day VP Comp helps identify the Macro
LVAs and HVAs LVAs
HVA
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VP Comps: MSFT
This 188-day VP Comp helps identify the Macro LVAs and
HVAs
HVA
LVA
LVA
LVA
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VP Comps: MSFT
This 11-day VP Comp helps identify the Micro LVAs and
HVAs, with Macro levels already marked
HVA
LVA
HVA
LVA
LVA
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Trading Reversals at LVAs
The Pros look to buy at established LVAs...
...and look to hand off the position at a prior value area
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Trade with Confidence
• Do your homework
• Use VP levels to identify important areas of interest and non-interest
• Identify potential setups ahead of the opening bell
• Let the market prove or disprove your theory
• Trade with confidence and execute your plan
“Scared money don’t make money.”
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