African Barrick Gold Market cap £1,880m
Transcript of African Barrick Gold Market cap £1,880m
African Barrick Gold is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
23 February 2012
In its full year results to 31 December 2011, African Barrick Gold (ABG) reported EPS
within 2.5% of our forecast. Output of gold was impaired by c 40,000oz on account
of well documented power supply problems, which was a contributory factor in a
21.4% increase in unit costs of production vs FY10, to US$692/oz. Nevertheless, the
board recommended a 254% increase in the level of the final dividend and a
reconfigured dividend policy such that future payouts will amount to “between 15
and 30% of profits after tax and minority interests each year”. For FY12,
management indicated that it expects production to be in the range 675-725koz at
unit costs of production between US$790/oz and US$860/oz.
Reserves and resources replaced In addition to its financial results, ABG also released its updated reserves and
resources statement. Compared to end-2010, the 2011 reserve statement
demonstrates an 11.1% increase in total tonnes and a 1.8% (or 301koz) increase in
total ounces. Excluding reserves (and the Nyanzaga resource upgrade), resource
tonnes increased by 38% and resource ounces by 504koz. Overall, ABG’s total
mineral resource base increased 17% to 31.5Moz (vs 26.9Moz as at end-2010).
Valuation: 24% discount to the Gold BUGS index All of ABG’s mines now have 100% back-up power available, except Bulyanhulu,
which will nevertheless be 100% covered in Q212. On the basis of Edison’s forecast
production of 677koz Au in FY12 at US$799/oz, ABG is trading at a 24% discount to
both Randgold Resources and the average of its peers (in the form of the Arca Gold
BUGS index – the HUI) on its prospective P/E ratio to December 2012. This assumes
a flat to rising unit working cost profile at all four mines (with the exception of
Buzwagi, at which economies of scale are expected to result in a second half
improvement in working costs in US$/t milled terms). In terms of its prospective
EV/EBITDA multiple, ABG is similarly trading at a 45% discount to the HUI to
December 2012. At 2.23%, however, it is yielding 138% more than the HUI and
321% more than RRS.
Outlook
Price 462p Market cap £1,880m Share price graph
Share details Code ABG Listing FULL Sector Mining Shares in issue 410m Price 52 week High Low 624p 383p Balance sheet as at 31 December 2011 Debt/equity (%) N/A NAV per share (US$) 6.73 Net cash (US$m) 584
Business African Barrick Gold was historically the Tanzanian gold mining business of Barrick and is one of Africa’s five largest gold producers with output from four mines: Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi, North Mara and Tulawaka. Valuation
2011 2012e 2013e
P/E relative 104% 128% 106%
P/CF 6.2 7.0 5.1
EV/Sales 2.1 2.0 1.8
ROE 10% 8% 10%
Revenues by geography UK Europe US Other
0% 0% 0% 100%
Analyst Charles Gibson +44 (0)20 3077 5724 [email protected]
African Barrick Gold Year End
Revenue (US$m)
PBT* (US$m)
EPS* (c)
DPS (c)
P/E (x)
Yield (%)
12/10 975 335 59.5 5.3 12.3 0.7
12/11 1,218 403 67.0 16.3 10.9 2.2
12/12e 1,266 337 56.4 16.3 12.9 2.2
12/13e 1,319 453 75.6 19.6 9.7 2.7
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items. US$1.58/£.
Investment summary: A second glance
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Investment summary: A second glance
Company description: Premier league gold producer Formerly the Tanzanian gold mining business of Barrick, African Barrick is one of the five largest
gold producers in Africa, with output of 688koz in FY11. Its four principal mines are Bulyanhulu
(100% interest, 38% of attributable ounces produced in FY11), North Mara (100% interest, 25% of
ounces produced), Buzwagi (100% and 29% of oz produced) and Tulawaka (70% interest and 9%
of attributable ounces produced). In terms of output, unit costs of production and resources it
compares to its two principal London peers, as follows:
Exhibit 1: ABG, POG and RRS historic and future key operating parameters Note: * Attributable; ** Last published; *** Estimated.
Name EV (US$m)
FY11 production* (koz)
FY11 total cash costs (US$/oz)
Total resource** (Moz)
African Barrick Gold 2.4 688 672 31.5 Petropavlovsk 2.4 630 ***659 24.7 Randgold Resources 10.9 696 641 28.8
Source: Edison Investment Research
In addition to its producing assets, ABG has a portfolio of one major and four additional exploration
assets, all of which have the potential to produce in excess of 50koz annually:
• The 4.1Moz Nyanzaga project, which has been assessed to be amenable to bulk
mining techniques in a 1.2x1.0km pit at a grade of 1.5-2.0g/t to produce c 200,000oz
Au per year at a strip ratio of 5:1. Initial test work has indicated simple metallurgy with
the result that costs have been informally estimated at c US$3.00/t for mining and
US$12.00/t for processing. Capex for the project is likely to be “hundreds of millions of
dollars”. A scoping study is underway and is expected to be completed in Q212, after
which approval is expected to be sought from the board to conduct a pre-feasibility
study and then a bankable/definitive feasibility study to be completed around end-
FY13. Assuming a positive result, two years of construction would then follow before
the project enters production in FY16.
• The extension of the Tulawaka underground mine life beyond 2012.
• Golden Ridge, which hosts 0.8Moz of gold (JORC) open at depth and along strike,
and could potentially supply ore to the Bulyanhulu plant.
• The Bulyanhulu Upper East zone, which is the down-dip extension of existing mining
activities and where infrastructure is already in place in the form of a 1.8km decline.
• The North Mara underground project.
Valuation: Cheap relative to both resources and peers Considered solely on the basis of its resources, ABG’s enterprise value equates to US$77/oz per
total attributable resource ounce (cf US$131/oz in March 2011), which is significantly cheaper than
both RRS and POG, on US$378/oz and US$97/oz respectively. It is also at a 46% discount to the
weighted average London valuation (excluding Wits basin ounces) of US$142/oz.
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Sensitivities ABG’s principal empirical sensitivities are to the gold price and its unit costs of production. Each
10% change in the gold price from US$1,700/oz has an approximate 37% effect on ABG’s
earnings per share. Each 10% change in unit costs has an approximate 27% effect. Qualitatively,
ABG is exposed to the usual operating risks regarding grade, throughput and costs targets.
However, it is not exposed to plant commissioning risk. Its geopolitical risk is effectively exclusively
restricted to Tanzania.
Financials: Solid and growing net cash position ABG had US$584m in net cash as at 31 December 2011. Forecast earnings (after minorities) of
US$231m in FY12 (vs US$275m in FY11), rising to US$413m in FY14 (excluding growth projects)
will be more than sufficient to fund capital expenditure requirements over the period of US$336m
(including exploration) in FY12, falling to US$156m of sustaining capex in FY14. With dividends
amounting to US$67-96m per year over the period, all things being equal, we would expect ABG’s
net cash position to be on an upward trend into the foreseeable future.
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Q4 and FY11 results The salient features of ABG’s Q411 and FY11 financial results statement were:
• A shortfall in production versus ABG’s FY11 year plan of c 40,000oz on account of
power supply problems (this has now been mitigated by the installation of 100% back-
up power).
• Cost inflation, including a 21% increase in in labour costs, a 29% increase in energy and
diesel fuel expenses, a 13% increase in consumable costs, a 23% increase in
maintenance costs and a 21% increase in contracted service costs.
• A 103% increase in full-year exploration costs.
• A 254% increase in the level of the final dividend and a reconfigured dividend policy
such that future payouts will amount to “between 15 and 30% of profits after tax and
minority interests each year” (subject to capital requirements and cash flows and
distributable reserves), payable in the approximate proportion of one-third as an interim
dividend and two-thirds as a final dividend.
A comparison of ABG’s Q411 and FY11 financial results relative to both Q311 and our prior
expectations is as follows:
Exhibit 2: ABG Q4 and FY11 results vs Q311 and prior expectation Note: US$000’s unless otherwise indicated; * Q411a/Q311; ** Q411a/Q411e; *** FY11a/FY11e; **** As calculated by Edison cf ABG (EBITDA does not have a standardised meaning under IFRS).
Q311 Q411e Q411a Change *(%)
Variance **(%)
FY11e FY11a Variance ***(%)
Operational
Total production (oz) 182,401 160,020 160,020 -12.3 0.0 688,279 688,279 0.0
Gold price realised (US$/oz) 1774 1655 1,655 -6.7 0.0 1,587 1,587 0.0
Total cash costs (US$/oz sold) 687 764 778 13.3 +1.2 689 692 0.4
Financial
Sales 354,330 289,221 285,198 -19.5 -1.4 1,221,938 1,217,915 -0.3
Cost of sales 145,109 146,329 140,316 -3.3 -1.4 580,211 569,965 -1.8
EBITDA**** 209,221 142,892 144,882 -30.8 1.4 641,727 647,950 1.0
Depreciation & amortisation 36,911 37,400 37,139 0.6 -0.7 130,177 134,149 3.1
Gross profit 172,310 105,492 107,743 -37.5 2.1 511,550 513,801 0.4
Corporate administration 13,905 10,263 16,075 15.6 56.6 44,693 50,505 13.0
Exploration and evaluation 6,871 6,871 7,389 7.5 7.5 29,821 30,339 3.6
Other charges -937 -937 -6,505 594.2 594.2 -17,446 -23,014 31.9
Profit before net finance costs 150,597 87,421 77,774 -48.4 -11.0 419,590 409,943 -2.3
Finance income 361 390 313 -13.3 -19.7 1,560 1,483 -4.9
Finance expense 2,195 2,105 2,408 9.7 14.4 8,420 8,723 3.6
Net finance cost -1,834 -1,715 -2,095 14.2 22.2 -6,860 -7,240 5.5
Net profit before taxation 148,763 85,706 75,679 -49.1 -11.7 412,730 402,703 -2.4
Taxation expense 43,298 24,855 20,595 -52.4 -17.1 122,183 117,923 -3.5
Marginal tax rate (%) 29.1 29 27 -6.5 -6.9 29.6 29.3 -1.0
Net profit 105,465 60,852 55,084 -47.8 -9.4 290,548 284,780 -2.0
Minority 3,385 1,959 2,401 -29.1 22.6 9,440 9,882 4.7
Minority (%) 3.21 3.22 4.36 35.8 35.4 3.2 3.5 9.4
Net profit attributable 102,080 58,892 52,683 -48.4 -10.5 281,107 274,898 -2.2
Weighted av shares (000’s) 410,085 410,085 410,085 0.0 0.0
Basic EPS (US$) 0.249 0.144 0.128 -48.4 -11.1 0.686 0.671 -2.2
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
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In addition to its historic results, ABG provided production guidance for FY12 of 675-725koz at a
total cash cost of US$790-860/oz in an H1:H2 ratio of approximately 45:55.
Bulyanhulu (38% of ABG production in FY11) Production of gold at Bulyanhulu demonstrated a notable recovery in Q4 compared to Q3, albeit in
conjunction with higher costs. Like Buzwagi, Bulyanhulu was also affected by power supply
disruptions. In addition, lower alimak grades on account of blockages in the paste fill lines resulted
in delayed access to the high grade areas of the mine and a higher proportion of lower grade, long
hole stopes being mined. In turn, the lower mined grade ensured that recoveries in the plant
remained at lower levels.
Exhibit 3: Bulyanhulu Q411 operating and financial results vs Q311 and prior expectations Note: ** Q411a/Q311a; *** Q411a/Q411e.
Q311 Q411e Q411a **Change (%)
***Variance (%)
Ore milled (kt) 276 241 241 -12.7 0.0
Head grade (g/t) 7.7 9.1 9.1 18.2 0.0
Contained gold (oz) 68,327 70,510 70,510 3.2 0.0
Mill recovery (%) 91.1 91.5 91.5 0.4 0.0
Ounces produced (oz) 62,064 64,433 64,433 3.8 0.0
Ounces sold (oz) 63,044 65,132 65,132 3.3 0.0
Cash costs (US$/oz) 617 522 671 8.7 28.5
Implied total cash costs (US$000's) 38,916 33,981 43,621 12.1 28.4
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 141 141 181 28.4 28.4
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
In the medium term, mill throughput is unlikely to vary by more than 10% from 1Mtpa, or 250kt per
quarter. By contrast, the target grade at Bulyanhulu is 11g/t. Seismology and geomechanics
delayed relatively high grade pillar mining in the first three quarters of FY11. However, the
improvement in Q4 was in line with management’s expectations and puts the grade on its
trajectory to meet 11g/t in approximately five years’ time. As such, our operational forecasts for
Bulyanhulu in FY12, by quarter, are as follows:
Exhibit 4: Bulyanhulu FY12 operating and financial forecasts, by quarter Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 FY12
Ore milled (kt) 244 247 250 253 994
Head grade (g/t) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.3
Contained gold (oz) 71,388 73,060 74,751 76,462 295,661
Mill recovery (%) 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5
Ounces produced (oz) 66,034 67,580 69,145 70,727 273,486
Ounces sold (oz) 66,034 67,580 69,145 70,727 273,486
Cash costs (US$/oz) 675 668 661 654 664
Implied total cash costs (US$000's) 44,599 45,148 45,696 46,244 181,687
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 183 183 183 183 183
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
Bulyanhulu has a relatively old plant. In the longer term, additional benefits to incremental
performance may be achieved via the modernisation, automation and optimisation of process flow
routes (eg the current revamping of the hoisting schedule).
In the meantime, growth potential continues to exist in the form of the tailings retreatment
operation, for which a (full) feasibility study is currently underway, and potential future production
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from the Upper East Zone (at which the decline is being rehabilitated and a test stope scheduled to
be established prior to anticipated production at the end of FY14).
North Mara (25% of ABG production in FY11) The focus for North Mara in 2011 was a planned and substantial waste stripping programme in
both the Gokona and Nyabirama pits. In the medium term, this will result in access to higher grade
material; in the meantime, however, it has resulted in a higher proportion of lower grade stockpile
material being processed, although this was partially offset by improved plant availability and
utilisation. At the same time, energy costs were markedly higher, especially in November and
December when the failure of the grid transformer resulted in the mine being run exclusively on
diesel power. Delays to water and waste dump permits were also instrumental in resulting in lower
capitalised stripping costs and therefore higher operating costs.
Exhibit 5: North Mara Q411 operating and financial results vs Q311 and prior expectations Note: ** Q411a/Q311a; *** Q411a/Q411e.
Q311 Q411e Q411a **Change (%)
***Variance (%)
Ore milled (kt)* 797 773 773 -3.0 0.0
Head grade (g/t) 2.2 2.1 2.1 -4.5 0.0
Contained gold (oz) 56,374 52,191 52,191 -7.4 0.0
Mill recovery (%)* 80.6 78.9 78.9 -2.1 0.0
Ounces produced (oz) 45,526 41,704 41,704 -8.4 0.0
Ounces sold (oz) 44,975 40,000 40,000 -11.1 0.0
Cash costs (US$/oz) 753 926 867 15.1 -6.4
Implied total cash costs (US$000’s) 34,271 37,023 34,785 1.5 -6.0
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 43 48 45 4.7 -6.3
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
Towards the end of the year, waste stripping activities were slowed down on account of capacity
constraints at the mine’s potentially acid forming (PAF) waste dumps. However, significant progress
is reported to have been made in addressing outstanding issues relating to the discharge of the
environmental protection order (EPO) at North Mara, with the Tanzanian Environmental Authority
recently confirming ABG’s compliance with all requirements of the EPO. As a result, provisional
permits have now been granted and construction of additional PAF dumps is underway, with the
result that we are forecasting that unit working costs will stabilise around the levels experienced in
the fourth quarter (see Exhibits 5 and 6, above and below). Note that, in this case, unit working
costs of US$46/t are still 27.8% above their level in Q111.
In the meantime, North Mara’s reserve and resource grades are 3.0g/t and 2.8g/t respectively. In
the longer term, the head grade is anticipated to revert back to, or even exceed, these levels.
However, in the immediate future the head grade is expected to remain below 2.5g/t throughout
H112, before recovering back towards 3.0g/t over the course of H2. As such, our estimates of
both operating and cost parameters in FY12 are as follows:
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Exhibit 6: North Mara FY12 operating and financial forecasts, by quarter Q112e Q212e Q312e Q412e FY12
Ore milled (kt)* 750 750 750 750 3,000
Head grade (g/t) 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.4
Contained gold (oz) 50,638 53,049 60,283 65,106 229,076
Mill recovery (%)* 79.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 82.2
Ounces produced (oz) 40,004 42,970 50,035 55,340 188,349
Ounces sold (oz) 40,004 42,970 50,035 55,340 188,349
Cash costs (US$/oz) 862 803 690 623 733
Implied total cash costs (US$000’s) 34,500 34,500 34,500 34,500 138,000
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 46 46 46 46 46
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
Upside potential exists in the possible de-bottlenecking of the process plant at North Mara. In
addition, land purchases around the Gokona pit have created the potential to increase the open pit
reserve by approximately 300koz via an additional lateral cut-back (albeit at the expense of
reducing the underground resource by c 150koz).
ABG’s mining licence at North Mara has now expired. By law, its renewal is a purely administrative
matter and, by default, is on the same terms as those previously. Any changes by contrast have to
be referred to Tanzania’s Mining Advisory Board and also be agreed with ABG. Until then, the
mining is deemed to continue on the same terms as those that existed under the previous, expired
licence.
Since the mass invasion of the mine during Q2 and the related shootings, the atmosphere around
North Mara has been described as one of “uneasy calm”. However, the company has now begun
erecting a wall around the property, which is scheduled to be completed by the middle of next
year. It has also actively engaged the government in addressing the matter, in particular since the
government won the local seat at the last election.
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Buzwagi (29% of ABG production in FY11) After recovering in Q3 from its well-documented SAG mill motor failure in Q2, Buzwagi was once
again hit by power supply problems in Q4, which it estimated to have cost it 15,000oz in lost
production during the quarter and c 35,000oz in FY11 as a whole as a result of additional plant
downtime, unplanned maintenance and critical component replacement. At the same time, preter-
natural cost pressure was exerted, among other things, by the need for higher quantities of cyanide
and neutralising agents to manage the copper content in the CIL process.
Exhibit 7: Buzwagi Q411 operating and financial results vs Q311 and prior expectations Note: ** Q411a/Q311a; *** Q411a/Q411e.
Q311 Q411e Q411a **Change
(%) ***Variance
(%) Ore milled (kt)* 927 642 642 -30.7 0.0
Head grade (g/t) 2.3 2.1 2.1 -8.7 0.0
Contained gold (oz) 68,549 43,346 43,346 -36.8 0.0
Mill recovery (%)* 88.3 87.4 87.4 -1.0 0.0
Ounces produced (oz) 60,699 37,916 37,916 -37.5 0.0
Ounces sold (oz) 60,939 38,547 38,547 -36.7 0.0
Cash costs (US$/oz) 696 853 870 25.0 2.0
Implied total cash costs (US$000’s) 42,642 32,894 33,384 -21.7 1.5
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 46 51 52 13.0 2.0
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
To take advantage of plant downtime, management started the Stage 2 waste stripping
programme and made some changes to mine sequencing, which resulted in an increase in
(especially) waste tonnes mined and in the stripping ratio, to 6.8 (vs 4.3 in Q3). However, to
address the problem, an additional 16MW of diesel back-up power was commissioned during the
quarter, which, when combined with that installed in July, will now give Buzwagi full back-up
power. With one-quarter of its back-up power installed by mid-year, the Buzwagi plant was
reported to have been able to process 12,000 tonnes of ore per day on a more regular basis,
occasionally spiking up to 15,000tpd (a milling rate of 1,100kt, see Exhibit 8, equates to a daily rate
of 12,088tpd). Buzwagi’s average reserve and resource grades are 1.476g/t and 1.131g/t
respectively and, as a result of revised mine sequencing, it is anticipated that the operation’s head
grade will return to approximately the reserve grade in the first half of FY12 before recovering again
in H212. Notwithstanding the decline in grade however, recoveries will rise as a result of the
improvements made to the plant during FY11 and, as such, our estimates of both operating and
cost parameters for Buzwagi in FY12 are as follows:
Exhibit 8: Buzwagi FY12 operating and financial forecasts, by quarter Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 FY12
Ore milled (kt) 750 950 1097.5 1097.5 3,895
Head grade (g/t) 1.60 1.40 1.59 1.78 1.60
Contained gold (oz) 38,581 42,761 56,141 62,882 200,365
Mill recovery (%) 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0
Ounces produced (oz) 32,794 36,347 47,720 53,450 170,310
Ounces sold (oz) 32,794 36,347 47,720 53,450 170,310
Cash costs (US$/oz) 1,144 1,389 1,081 903 1,103
Implied total cash costs (US$000’s) 37,500 50,501 51,583 48,290 187,873
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 50 53 47 44 48
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
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Tulawaka (9% of ABG production in FY11) Tulawaka’s operating performance in Q411 was characterised by the mining of higher grade
underground stopes, subsequent higher mill recoveries and improved mine equipment availability:
Exhibit 9: Tulawaka Q411 operating and financial results vs Q311 and prior expectations Note: Reflected as 70%; ** Q411a/Q311a; *** Q411a/Q411e.
Q311 Q411e Q411a **Change (%)
***Variance (%)
Ore milled (kt) 68 73 73 7.4 0.0
Head grade (g/t) 6.8 7.1 7.1 4.4 0.0
Contained gold (oz) 14,867 16,664 16,664 12.1 0.0
Mill recovery (%) 96.0 95.7 95.7 -0.3 0.0
Ounces produced (oz) 14,112 15,967 15,967 13.1 0.0
Ounces sold (oz) 14,630 15,190 15,190 3.8 0.0
Cash costs (US$/oz) 749 900 781 4.3 -13.2
Implied total cash costs (US$000's) 11,016 13,669 11,826 7.4 -13.5
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 162 187 162 0.0 -13.4
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
With its mine life now confirmed to the end of 2012 (although management is confident that end-
2013 is more likely), Tulawaka continues to outperform the original underground feasibility study. A
second portal into the Tulawaka East Zone underground is anticipated to start in Q112. In addition,
as stockpiles from the open pit were exhausted, management began opening the West Pit
Extension in Q4, intending to provide supplemental mill feed to the high grade underground ore to
allow the mill to run at optimal levels. Edison’s quarterly forecasts for Tulawaka in FY12 are
therefore as follows:
Exhibit 10: Tulawaka FY12 operating and financial forecasts, by quarter Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 FY12
Ore milled (kt) 50 50 50 50 200
Mill feed grade (g/t) 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.5
Contained gold (oz) 11,574 11,896 12,217 12,539 48,227
Mill recovery (%) 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.2
Ounces produced (oz) 10,787 11,087 11,387 11,686 44,947
Ounces sold (oz) 10,787 11,087 11,387 11,686 44,947
Cash costs (US$/oz) 781 760 740 721 750
Implied total cash costs (US$000’s) 8,426 8,426 8,426 8,426 33,705
Cash cost per tonne milled (US$/t) 169 169 169 169 169
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
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Two hurdles remain to be overcome to extend Tulawaka’s life beyond 2012/3, namely the depth
limit before ventilation and refrigeration are required, and capacity at the mine’s tailings dams,
which will be reached in 2013/14 – both of which will require capex of an estimated US$10-15m.
In the meantime, management is continuing its exploration programme and reports “consistent
hits” from underground drilling.
Reserves and resources During 2011, ABG’s exploration expenditure was US$48.1m (including capitalised exploration
expenditure of US$17.8m), which resulted in the addition of 3.5Moz of gold to resources, at an
average incremental cost of discovery of 13.74oz. Of this, 3.1Moz were delineated at Nyanzaga,
which was the subject of a separate note, published on 2 February 2012.
Below are tables of ABG’s updated reserves and resources by project, expressed both explicitly
and in terms of the number of years of mine life that each can support at their respective plants’
processing capacities.
Exhibit 11: ABG reserves (gross) Note: As at 31 December 2011.
Reserves kt Grade (g/t)
Contained gold (koz)
Plant capacity (ktpa)
Implied life (years)
Bulyanhulu Proven 1,229.7 10.789 426.5 1,100 1.1 Probable 26,959.2 11.774 10,205.3 1,100 24.5 Total 28,188.9 11.731 10,631.9 1,100 25.6 Buzwagi Proven 4,958.3 1.098 175.0 4,400 1.1 Probable 56,466.0 1.509 2,739.8 4,400 12.8 Total 61,424.3 1.476 2,914.8 4,400 14.0 North Mara Proven 11,498.7 2.787 1,030.3 2,900 4.0 Probable 24,097.2 3.168 2,454.2 2,900 8.3 Total 35,595.9 3.045 3,484.5 2,900 12.3 Tulawaka Proven 62.9 3.958 8.0 480 0.1 Probable 173.8 14.934 83.5 480 0.4 Total 236.7 12.017 91.5 480 0.5 Total Proven 17,749.5 2.874 1,639.9 8,880 2.0 Probable 107,696.3 4.472 15,482.8 8,880 12.1 Total 125,445.8 4.245 17,122.7 8,880 14.1
Source: African Barrick Gold, Edison Investment Research
Compared to ABG’s reserve statement at end-2010, the 2011 statement shows an 11.1%
increase in total tonnes and a 1.8% (or 301koz) increase in total ounces – ie both reserves and
resources were more than replaced as a result of exploration activity. Within this was a particularly
large increase in tonnes at North Mara, of 28.9%, and a corresponding 22.8% (or 648koz) increase
in ounces.
Excluding reserves (and the Nyanzaga resource upgrade), resource tonnes increased by 38% and
resource ounces by 504koz, as shown below:
11 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Exhibit 12: ABG resources (attributable) Note: As at 31 December 2011; resources stated exclusive of mineral reserves.
Resources kt Grade (g/t)
Contained gold (koz)
Plant capacity (ktpa)
Implied life (years)
Bulyanhulu Measured 0.0 0.000 0.0 1,100 0.0 Indicated 17,765.9 5.283 3,017.8 1,100 16.2 Inferred 8,318.0 12.003 3,210.0 1,100 7.6 Total 26,083.9 7.426 6,227.8 1,100 23.7 Buzwagi Measured 135.1 1.383 6.0 4,400 0.0 Indicated 35,355.1 1.123 1,276.2 4,400 8.0 Inferred 10,299.0 1.156 382.8 4,400 2.3 Total 45,789.2 1.131 1,665.0 4,400 10.4 North Mara Measured 2,727.5 2.101 184.2 2,900 0.9 Indicated 13,262.2 2.944 1,255.4 2,900 4.6 Inferred 1,558.0 2.557 128.1 2,900 0.5 Total 17,547.6 2.779 1,567.7 2,900 6.1 Tulawaka (70% basis) Measured 0.0 0.000 0.0 480 0.0 Indicated 613.5 5.458 107.7 480 1.8 Inferred 116.0 5.723 21.3 480 0.3 Total 729.5 5.500 129.0 480 2.2 Sub-total Measured 2,862.6 2.067 190.2 8,880 0.3 Indicated 66,996.6 2.626 5,657.0 8,880 7.5 Inferred 20,291.0 5.736 3,742.2 8,880 2.3 Total 90,150.2 3.309 9,589.5 8,880 10.2 Golden Ridge Indicated 7,417.0 2.837 676.5 Inferred 1,221.0 2.371 93.1 Total 8,638.0 2.771 769.6 Nyanzaga Indicated 73,884.0 1.465 3,481.2 Inferred 9,061.0 2.053 598.1 Total 82,945.0 1.530 4,079.3 Total Measured 2,862.6 2.067 190.2 Indicated 148,297.6 2.058 9,814.7 Inferred 30,573.0 4.510 4,433.3 Total 181,733.2 2.471 14,438.3
Source: African Barrick Gold, Edison Investment Research
Assuming that ‘proven’ reserves are a subset of ‘measured’ resources and that ‘probable’ reserves
are a subset of ‘indicated’ resources, ABG’s total mineral resource is 31.5Moz (vs 26.9Moz as at
end-2010). Excluding the resource upgrade at Nyanzaga, total attributable resource tonnes
(including reserves) increased by 12.2%, including a 23.5% increase in the measured/proven
category. Excluding the Nyanzaga upgrade, there was a 225koz increase in combined reserves
and resources.
Exhibit 13: Estimated ABG resources inclusive of reserves, by category (attributable) Reserves kt Grade
(g/t) Contained gold
(koz) Aggregate plant capacity
(ktpa) Implied life
(years) Total Measured 20,593.3 2.761 1,827.8 8,736 2.4 Indicated 255,941.7 3.071 25,272.5 8,736 29.3 Inferred 30,573.0 4.510 4,433.3 8,736 3.5 Total 307,108.0 3.194 31,533.6 8,736 35.2
Source: Edison Investment Research
12 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Exploration review North Mara-Gokona underground
With a focus on developing high grade underground resources beneath the planned final Gokona
and Nyabigena open pits, the North Mara-Gokona programme has been “successful at extending
known higher-grade mineralised zones to at least 600 metres below the currently planned open pit
depth.” As a result a resource drill-out programme has been instigated to expand the total
underground resource to in excess of 1Moz. The infill drill programme is now over 50% complete
with over 28,174m drilled in 65 holes (an average of 433m per hole) and is expected to be finalised
by the end of Q212 in time for inclusion in the mid-year reserve and resource update.
The Gokona underground feasibility study was completed in Q411 at the same time as ABG was
able to progress land acquisitions around the pit and remove a western side-road constraint. On
account of this latter initiative an additional lateral cut-back has become possible (see page 5), as a
result of which the underground project feasibility will need to be recalculated to provide for a
revised portal position, expected to be concluded in Q412.
North Mara-Nyabirama Deeps
Infill drilling targeting the addition of c 700koz of material into the Nyabirama resource base is
approximately 80% complete with 30,181m drilled in 86 holes (an average of 351m per hole) and is
anticipated to be completed during early 2012. Results from drilling to date are reported to have
returned intercepts showing “multiple zones of higher grade mineralisation, potentially amenable to
underground mining, including some wider zones (>10 metres) with grades >5g/t gold.” As a result,
ABG expects to initiate an underground feasibility study on the Nyabirama Deeps area during the
current year to assess the options for potential future mining.
North Mara-Gokona corridor
A scout drilling programme along this corridor (where historically very little effective drilling has been
completed) is reported to have been successful at identifying “favourable rock types and alterations
similar to those observed at the Gokona and Nyabigena deposits”, as a result of which a
programme of c 18,500m has been budgeted in FY12.
13 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Tulawaka East Zone Underground Extension
Much of the focus of drilling to extend Tulawaka’s life in 2011 was on the East Zone Underground
Extension, where high grade mineralised shoots were extended below 7-level down to 12-level.
Drilling to date indicates that existing mineralised zones continue to at least 180m below the floor of
the open pit. Exploration in 2012 will concentrate on extensions of mineralisation below the eastern
end of the final open pit in Zone 800, with the intention of adding further to reserves and extending
the mine life via an exclusively underground operation.
The Gap
The Mojamoja and West Zone prospects lie approximately 4km north-west of the Tulawaka plant.
A total of 10,385m over 86 reverse circulation holes (an average of 121m per hole) were drilled
during Q411 as part of an infill programme between the two prospects (known as the Gap), with a
view to delineating open pit resources to be trucked to the plant.
Golden Ridge
Further infill drilling has been completed to upgrade the inferred resource into the measured and
indicated categories. After initially failing to pass ABG’s internal hurdle rate, Golden Ridge is now
the subject of an analysis investigating whether it might be viable to process ore through the
expanded process plant at Bulyanhulu (rather than trucking ore to Buzwagi as was originally
envisaged). As a result, the original feasibility study will be “reworked during the course of 2012 to
establish the viability of these options.”
Bulyanhulu CIL expansion
The feasibility study being conducted by MDM Engineering for the expansion of the CIL circuit at
Bulyanhulu to reprocess the mine’s tailings material is expected to be completed imminently. As
well as delivering increased production, the expansion of the CIL will also provide increased
flexibility to the development of the mine.
Bulyanhulu Upper East Zone
Geotechnical and metallurgical work is progressing at the Bulyanhulu Upper East Zone, with a
detailed update expected in Q112. Thereafter, board approval for the project is expected to be
sought in mid-2012, with a view to starting production in 2014.
Bulyanhulu Underground Reef 2 Deep Central
Targeted Reef 2 reserves are 700m from current mine infrastructure and, at less than two years,
are accessible to the life of mine plan earlier than the majority of existing Reef 1 reserves.
Nyanzaga
The Nyanzaga scoping study is expected to be completed during Q212, after which approval from
the board will be sought to initiate a pre-feasibility study. In the meantime, a revised “in-pit”
resource for Kilimani is expected, which will provide additional near-surface ounces to the
Nyanzaga Project resource base. One of the priorities of the 2012 exploration programme will be to
advance further the testing of down-dip extensions of the high-grade zones delineated in 2011 that
may be amenable to underground mining.
14 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Dett
The Dett prospect is located approximately 65km north-east of North Mara. Historic surface
mapping and shallow drilling have outlined an 8km2 zone of alteration associated with intercalated
intrusions and sediments. Limited deeper drilling, to 200m vertical depth, subsequently indicated a
low grade (c 0.7g/t) gold mineralised system associated with copper and molybdenum open in all
directions, including at depth. The best hole drilled by ABG in 2011 “was mineralised almost all the
way from top to bottom and intercepted the lower grade envelope of mineralisation, cutting 370
metres at 0.67g/t, but importantly this included several zones of the targeted higher grade
mineralisation including 20 metres at 1.44g/t Au, 12 metres at 1.77g/t Au, 14 metres at 2.02g/t Au
and 23 metres at 1.30g/t Au”. Future drill programmes will be aimed at validating and extending the
higher grade gold zones and investigating the potential to delineate a large, stand-alone mineable
resource at a grade between c 1.0g/t and 1.5g/t.
15 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Hedging While ABG does not hedge its gold production, it has put in place a collar strategy, such that 74%
of expected FY12 copper production will be sold between US$3.34/lb (US$7,365/t) and
US$4.84/lb (US$10,672/t). In addition it has put in place number of programmes aimed at
protecting itself from excessive cost inflation. These include:
• 75% of rand expenditure hedged at an average ceiling price of ZAR8.10/USD in 2012.
• 13% of rand expenditure hedged at an average ceiling price of ZAR9.10/USD in 2013.
• Should oil trade at US$110-130/bbl in 2012, 50% of ABG’s oil price exposure has been
capped at US$110/bbl; by contrast, ABG will participate in any lower price to a floor of
US$85/bbl.
• Should oil trade at US$110-135/bbl in 2013, 22% of ABG’s oil price exposure has been
capped at US$110/bbl; by contrast, ABG will participate in any lower price to a floor of
US$77/bbl.
Taxation During the year, ABG executed a binding Memorandum of Settlement with the Tanzanian Revenue
Authority (TRA), such that ABG will be able to offset income tax payable against outstanding
refunds for VAT and fuel levies. In particular, an escrow account has been agreed between ABG
and the TRA as part of the arrangements, with “regular reconciliations in order to prevent future fuel
tax refunds accruing”.
16 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Consequences and conclusions As a result of its fourth quarter production figures and assumptions detailed above, we have
revised our FY12 estimates for ABG as follows:
Exhibit 14: Edison ABG FY12 financial forecasts, by quarter Note: US$000’s unless otherwise indicated; *As calculated by Edison cf ABG (NB EBITDA does not have a standardised meaning under IFRS).
Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 FY12 Operational
Total production (oz) 149,619 157,984 178,286 191,203 677,092 Gold price realised (US$/oz) 1700 1700 1700 1700 1,700 Total cash costs per oz sold (US$/oz) 836 877 786 719 799 Financial Sales 279,788 295,430 333,395 357,549 1,266,162 Cost of sales 148,918 165,056 166,998 163,729 644,701 EBITDA before central costs* 130,870 130,374 166,397 193,820 621,461 Depreciation & amortisation 41,446 41,446 41,446 41,446 165,783 Gross profit 89,424 88,928 124,952 152,374 455,678 Corporate administration 14,990 14,990 14,990 14,990 59,960 Exploration and evaluation 7,389 7,389 7,389 7,389 29,556 Other charges -5,754 -5,754 -5,754 -5,754 -23,016 Profit before net finance costs 61,291 60,795 96,819 124,241 343,146 Finance income 438 438 438 438 1,752 Finance expense 1,850 1,850 1,850 1,850 7,400 Net finance cost -1,412 -1,412 -1,412 -1,412 -5,648 Net profit before taxation 59,879 59,383 95,407 122,829 337,499 Taxation expense 17,365 17,221 27,668 35,621 97,875 Marginal tax rate (%) 29 29 29 29 29 Net profit 42,514 42,162 67,739 87,209 239,624 Minority 1,492 1,480 2,378 3,061 8,411 Minority (%) 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.5 Net profit attributable to shareholders 41,022 40,682 65,361 84,148 231,213 Weighted av shares in issue (000’s) 410,085 410,085 410,085 410,085 Basic EPS (US$) 0.100 0.099 0.159 0.205 0.564
Source: Edison Investment Research, African Barrick Gold
17 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Forthcoming announcements ABG is currently engaged in feasibility studies at four projects: Gokona Underground, Bulyanhulu
Upper East Zone, Bulyanhulu tailings and the Tulawaka East Zone. Further to this and after
successful drilling, it has initiated scoping studies at Nyabirama and Nyanzaga and continues to
assess the best method to develop the resource at Golden Ridge. We expect future developments
and announcements by ABG over its projects in approximately the following order:
• Q212: Announcement over findings of Bulyanhulu tailings feasibility study (see our note,
dated 18 October 2011).
• Q212: Decision on Tulawaka extension beyond end-2012.
• Q212: Completion of Nyanzaga scoping study and initiation of pre-feasibility study
(subject to board approval).
• Q312: Mid-year reserve and resource evaluation.
• Q312: Bulyanhulu Upper East Zone test stope initiated, after which we expect board
approval will be sought for the project.
18 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Valuation On the basis of our updated numbers, a comparison of ABG’s P/E multiple compared with those of
its principal peers over the course of the next 12 months is as follows:
Exhibit 15: ABG, POG, RRS and Arca Gold BUGS index fully diluted P/E profiles, FY10-FY12 (x) Note: ABG estimated by Edison Investment Research; RRS and POG estimated by Thomson Datastream.
Source: Edison Investment Research, Thomson Datastream
On its prospective P/E ratio to December 2012, therefore, ABG is trading at a 24% discount to
both Randgold Resources and to its peers in the form of the Arca Gold BUGS index (HUI). In terms
of its prospective EV/EBITDA multiple, it is trading at a 45% discount to the HUI to December
2012. In the meantime, its prospective yield, of 2.23% is 138% higher than the HUI, which yields
0.94%, and 321% higher than RRS, which yields 0.53%.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012
ABG P/E RRS P/E POG P/E NYSE Arca Gold BUGS index P/E
19 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Exhibit 16: Financials
Sources: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
US $ m 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013 e 2014eYear end 31 December IFR S IFR S IFR S IFR S IFR S IFR S IFR SPR OFIT & LOS S R evenue 540.5 6 9 3 .4 9 75.0 1,217.9 1,26 6 .2 1,3 19 .1 1,570.3Cost of sales (339.6) (375.9) (479.5) (570.0) (644.7) (555.6) (641.2)Gross profit 200.9 317.5 495.5 648 .0 621.5 763.6 929.1EB ITDA 149 .8 26 0.2 445.2 544.1 508 .9 6 51.1 8 16 .6Opera ting prof i t (be fore amort. and except.) 78 .9 16 6 .8 3 3 5.7 409 .9 3 43 .1 458 .2 6 08 .1Intangible amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Exceptionals (216.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (6,510), (10,714), (26,033), (23.0) (23.0) (23.0) (23.0)Opera ting prof i t ( 144.1) 156 .1 3 09 .7 409 .9 3 43 .1 458 .2 6 08 .1Net interest (13.2) (5.7) (0.6) (7.2) (5.6) (5.7) (5.1)Prof i t be fore tax (norm.) 6 5.7 16 1.1 3 3 5.1 402.7 3 3 7.5 452.5 6 02.9Prof i t be fore tax (FR S 3 ) (150.8 ) 16 1.1 3 3 5.1 402.7 3 3 7.5 452.5 6 02.9Tax (20.4) (8 4.4) (8 6.5) (117.9) (97.9) (131.2) (174.9)Prof i t a f te r tax (norm.) 45.3 76 .7 248 .6 28 4.8 23 9 .6 3 21.3 428 .1Prof i t a f te r tax (FR S 3 ) (171.2) 76 .7 248 .6 28 4.8 23 9 .6 3 21.3 428 .1
Average number of shares outstanding (m) N/A 410.1 410.1 410.1 410.1 410.1 410.1EPS - normalised (c) N/A 16.9 59.5 67.0 56.4 75.6 100.7EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) N/A 16.9 59.5 67.0 56.4 75.6 100.7EPS - (IFRS) (c) N/A 16.9 59.5 67.0 56.4 75.6 100.7Dividend per share (c) 0.0 0.0 5.3 16.3 16.3 19.6 23.2
Gross margin (%) N/A 45.8 50.8 53.2 49.1 57.9 59.2EBITDA margin (%) N/A 37.5 45.7 44.7 40.2 49.4 52.0Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) N/A 24.1 34.4 33.7 27.1 34.7 38 .7
B ALANCE S HEETFixed as s ets 1,8 07.8 1,9 04.5 2,16 8 .5 2,3 26 .2 2,451.5 2,477.6 2,3 56 .1Intangible assets 397.1 337.6 379.8 314.0 304.2 252.6 18 3.2Tangible assets 1,38 3.1 1,498 .1 1,615.1 1,8 23.2 1,958 .5 2,036.1 1,98 4.0Investments 27.6 68 .8 173.6 18 8 .9 18 8 .9 18 8 .9 18 8 .9Current as s ets 3 40.7 46 8 .3 758 .6 9 6 8 .3 1,029 .4 1,23 0.6 1,707.0Stocks 18 7.0 278 .7 228 .0 316.9 312.8 325.9 38 7.9Debtors 44.8 61.6 59.2 29.9 107.9 112.4 133.8Cash 53.3 69.7 401.0 58 4.2 571.4 755.1 1,148 .0Other 55.6 58 .3 70.4 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3Current l iabi l i t ies (1,3 21.0) (1,53 1.6 ) (129 .7) (16 9 .6 ) (18 3 .3 ) (16 9 .9 ) (19 1.8 )Creditors (114.6) (148 .2) (129.7) (169.6) (18 3.3) (169.9) (191.8 )Short-term borrowings (1,206.4) (1,38 3.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Long- te rm l iabi l i t ies (223 .8 ) (18 3 .7) (254.4) (3 26 .2) (3 26 .2) (3 26 .2) (3 26 .2)Long-term borrowings (93.8 ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other long-term liabilities (130.1) (18 3.7) (254.4) (326.2) (326.2) (326.2) (326.2)Net as s ets 6 03 .6 6 57.4 2,543 .1 2,79 8 .7 2,9 71.4 3 ,212.2 3 ,545.1
CAS H FLOWOperating cas h f low 13 6 .7 28 2.9 3 44.4 502.2 448 .8 6 20.0 755.1Net Interest (12.0) (4.5) 0.8 (3.9) (5.6) (5.7) (5.1)Tax (20.4) (8 4.4) 0.0 0.0 (53.0) (79.6) (105.5)Capex (414.2) (248 .4) (275.6) (28 1.5) (336.0) (270.5) (156.4)Acquisitions/disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Financing 8 .6 (0.1) 1,096.3 (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividends (30.2) (12.2) (259.5) (32.7) (66.9) (8 0.5) (95.1)Net cash flow (331.5) (66.8 ) 906.4 18 3.1 (12.8 ) 18 3.7 392.9Opening net debt/(cas h) 9 15.4 1,246 .9 1,3 13 .7 (401.0) (58 4.2) (571.4) (755.1)HP finance leases initiated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other 0.0 0.0 8 08 .3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Clos ing net debt/(cas h) 1,246 .9 1,3 13 .7 (401.0) (58 4.2) (571.4) (755.1) (1,148 .0)
20 | Edison Investment Research | Outlook | African Barrick Gold | 23 February 2012
Growth Profitability Balance sheet strength Sensitivities evaluation
Litigation/regulatory
Pensions
Currency
Stock overhang
Interest rates
Oil/commodity prices
Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics Company details
EPS CAGR 09-13e 45.4 ROCE 12e 11.0 Gearing 12e N/A Address:
EPS CAGR 11-13e 6.2 Avg ROCE 09-13e 11.1 Interest cover 12e N/A 5th Floor, No 1 Cavendish Place, London, W1G 0QF, United Kingdom EBITDA CAGR 09-13e 25.8 ROE 12e 7.9 CA/CL 12e 5.6
EBITDA CAGR 11-13e 9.4 Gross margin 12e 49.1 Stock turn 12e 90.2 Phone 0207 129 7150
Sales CAGR 09-13e 17.4 Operating margin 12e 27.1 Debtor days 12e 31.1 Fax 0207 129 7180
Sales CAGR 11-13e 4.1 Gr mgn / Op mgn 12e 1.8 Creditor days 12e 50.6 www.africanbarrickgold.com
Principal shareholders % Management team
Barrick 43.8 CEO: Greg Hawkins
PDG Sona (Cayman) (NB effectively Barrick) 21.0 Having previously held roles at Deloitte and Normandy Mining, Mr Hawkins joined Homestake in 1999, before its acquisition by Barrick. Since 2001 he has been served in finance roles for Barrick Australia/Africa, becoming CFO of the Australia Pacific Business Unit from June 2006.
PDG Bank (NB effectively Barrick) 9.1
Franklin Advisers 1.5
The Boston Company Asset Mgt 1.3
Legal & General Inv Mgt (UK) 1.1 CFO: Kevin Jennings
Invesco Management Group 0.9 Mr Jennings has held a variety of positions in the last 10 years, including director business optimisation Xstrata, director strategic business analysis at Falconbridge and CFO at American Racing Equipment. Most recently, he was vice-president of corporate development at Barrick.
Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date *
Q1 results April 2012
Q2/interim results July 2012 COO: Marco Zolezzi
Q3 results October 2012 Mr Zolezzi has over 30 years of experience in mining in both Australia and South Africa with five years at Newcrest Mining (where he was general manager of the Telfer Mine) and 13 with WMC Resources. Prior to his appointment as COO at ABG he was technical services director for Barrick’s Australia Pacific region for five years.
Note: * = estimated
Companies named in this report
Petropavlovsk (POG), Randgold Resources (RRS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
EPS
norm
alis
ed (c
)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
RO
CE
-1 ,500.0
-1 ,000.0
-5 00.0
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Net
cas
h (U
S$m
)
Edison Investment Research Lincoln House, 296-302 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7JH tel: +44 (0)20 3077 5700 fax: +44 (0)20 3077 5750 www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk Registered in England, number 4794244. Edison Investment Research is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED Edison Investment Research is a leading international investment research company. It has won industry recognition, with awards both in the UK and internationally. The team of more than 80 includes over 50 analysts supported by a department of supervisory analysts, editors and assistants. Edison writes on more than 350 companies across every sector and works directly with corporates, fund managers, investment banks, brokers and other advisers. Edison’s research is read by institutional investors, alternative funds and wealth managers in more than 100 countries. Edison, founded in 2003, has offices in London and Sydney and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=181584). DISCLAIMER Copyright 2012 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by African Barrick Gold and prepared and issued by Edison Investment Research Limited for publication in the United Kingdom. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable; however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison Investment Research Limited at the time of publication. The research in this document is intended for professional advisers in the United Kingdom for use in their roles as advisers. It is not intended for retail investors. This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. A marketing communication under FSA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison Investment Research Limited has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Investment Research Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business. The company does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, its directors, officers, employees and contractors may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison Investment Research Limited or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This communication is intended for professional clients as defined in the FSA’s Conduct of Business rules (COBs 3.5).