African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs...
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Transcript of African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs...
![Page 1: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
African Adaptation
UNDP Accra
![Page 2: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Model
• Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I
• P*dQ(C)/dI = R
• Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate
• Which crop is most productive depends on climate
![Page 3: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Data
• 11 African countries
• Crops grown
• Livestock species chosen
• Climate
• Control variables
![Page 4: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Methodology
• Logit regression
• Crop choice (across major crops) regressed on climate and control variables
• Livestock choice regressed on climate and control variables
• Holding control variables constant, estimate how temperature and precipitation affect choice
![Page 5: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Functional form
• Pri=exp(BiXi)/(1-∑exp(BkXk))
• BX=b0+b1T+b2T2+b3P+b4P2+b5Z
![Page 6: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Livestock Switching in Africa
![Page 7: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Forecast CCC Scenario
• Start with original climate and estimate frequency sheep chosen
• Use CCC climate scenario and estimate new frequency of sheep chosen
![Page 10: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Current allocation of African Sheep
![Page 11: African Adaptation UNDP Accra. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022083009/5697bff31a28abf838cbc5c6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
African Sheep with CCC climate