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Africa RiskView - African Risk Capacity – ARC · derlying basis of the insurance policies issued...
Transcript of Africa RiskView - African Risk Capacity – ARC · derlying basis of the insurance policies issued...
The Africa RiskView Bulletin is a monthly publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). ARC is a Specialised Agency of the African Union designed to improve the capacity of AU Member States to manage natural disaster risk, adapt to climate change and protect food insecure populations. ARC relies on Africa RiskView, a drought modelling platform that uses satel-lite-based rainfall information to estimate the costs of responding to a drought. These modelled response costs are the un-derlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.
For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | NOVEMBER 2016
Rainfall
During the month of October 2016, rainfall was mainly concen-
trated over the central parts of the continent, as well as over West
Africa, where the season is coming to an end, and East Africa,
where the 2016 short rains season was expected to intensify.
Compared to the 2001-2015 average, satellite rainfall estimates
suggest that drier than normal conditions prevailed in most areas,
with the exception of parts of Central Africa (Central African
Republic, Republic of Congo, north-western DR Congo and Came-
roon), coastal areas of West Africa (Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia,
Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana and southern Nigeria) as well as
north-western East Africa (north-western Ethiopia, Sudan and
South Sudan).
Severe rainfall deficits were recorded in parts of the Sahel
(Senegal, Burkina Faso and Mali) and in East Africa. In eastern
Kenya, eastern Ethiopia and Somalia, the below normal rains in
October point towards a significantly delayed 2016 long rains
season, which is particularly worrying considering the poor perfor-
mance of the 2016 long rains in parts of the region.
Drought
Burkina Faso: The agricultural season in Burkina Faso extends
until early December in some areas. Africa RiskView’s estimates
indicate that the performance of the 2016 season should be in line
with normal conditions, as defined by the country during the
customisation of the model (benchmark of the previous 5 years).
While some areas in south-western, south-eastern and north-
eastern Burkina Faso are likely to experience slightly below nor-
mal conditions, the overall performance of the season can be
expected to be good. These estimates are in line with initial as-
sessments conducted by the country, which indicate that average
to good crop outcomes are expected.
The Gambia: In The Gambia, which uses groundnut as its refer-
ence crop in Africa RiskView, the agricultural season is expected to
end in mid-November 2016. The model’s estimates suggest that
Rainfall:
Below average rains in East Africa, which indicate a significant-ly delayed start of the season in eastern Kenya, eastern Ethio-pia and Somalia.
The rainy season in West Africa is coming to an end; overall, above average rains were received in most countries through-out the region.
Drought:
The 2016 agricultural season ended with normal WRSI values throughout Mali, with the exception of localised areas in the central parts of the country.
In Burkina Faso and The Gambia, normal to above normal con-ditions prevail, while planting conditions during the sowing window were not reached in most of central Senegal, accord-ing to Africa RiskView.
Affected Populations:
Around 530,000 people are estimated to be affected by the impact of localised dry conditions at the end of the season in central Mali, while another 990,000 people could be affected in south-western Burkina Faso and central Senegal.
ARC Risk Pool:
Currently, seven countries form the 2016/17 ARC Risk Pool, some of which are still in the process of defining their partici-pation.
In Mali, no payout was triggered at the end of the 2016 agri-cultural campaign, due to the overall good performance of the season in the country.
In Burkina Faso, The Gambia and Senegal, where the season is about to end, payouts are currently unlikely.
Highlights:
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the crop water requirements should be fully satisfied in most
areas at the end of the season, particularly in western Gambia.
The current end-of-season WRSI projections are in line with nor-
mal conditions, which the in-country technical working group
defined as the median of the previous 5 years.
Mali: The 2016 agricultural season in Mali ended in October.
According to Africa RiskView, the water requirements of the
reference crop (maize) were fully satisfied in the southern parts of
the country due to the good performance of the rains, with a
gradual decrease in WRSI values towards the more arid northern
regions. Compared to the benchmark, which the country set as
the 2015 agricultural season, normal conditions prevailed in most
of the country, with pockets of below normal WRSI values in
central Mali (southern Segou, eastern Koulikoro, north-western
Sikasso and parts of Mopti regions). Overall however, a good
seasonal performance can be expected, considering the good
performance of the 2015 season. A more in-depth analysis on the
performance of the 2016 season in Mali will be provided in the
upcoming Africa RiskView End-of-Season Report.
Senegal: As in neighbouring Gambia, Senegal uses groundnut as
reference crop in Africa RiskView, given the importance of this
cash crop for food security in the country. The season lasts from
May to early November. Due to a delayed season in 2016, Africa
RiskView estimates that planting conditions were not reached in
large parts of central Senegal. Despite above average rainfall
between late July and September, the end-of-season WRSI projec-
tions for these areas are thus well below the benchmark selected
by the country (median of previous 5 years). Normal conditions
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | NOVEMBER 2016
Rainfall in mm compared to 2001-15 average, West Africa, Oct 2016 (RFE2)
Rainfall in mm compared to 2001-15 average, East Africa, Oct 2016 (RFE2)
End-of-season WRSI projection compared to 2015, Mali, 2016 agricultural season
Estimated number of people affected by drought, Mali, 1983-2016
End-of-season WRSI projection compared to 5-year median, The Gambia & Senegal,
2016 agricultural season
End-of-season WRSI projection compared to 5-year median, Burkina Faso,
2016 agricultural season
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prevail in the rest of the country. It is important to note that
during the review of the Africa RiskView customisation for the
2016/17 ARC Risk Pool, the country opted for very stringent sow-
ing criteria. Had the country kept the previously used sowing
criteria, Africa RiskView would depict a more favourable situation
for the central parts of the country, which means that the rains in
the latter part of the season were favourable to crop develop-
ment. Nonetheless some areas would still be affected by below
normal WRSI values, particularly Kaffrine region.
Affected Populations
Burkina Faso: Despite the overall good performance of the sea-
son in Burkina Faso, Africa RiskView estimates that around
260,000 people might be directly affected by the impact of dry
conditions in the south-western parts of the country (Cascades
and Sud-Ouest regions). Depending on the performance of the
rains between now and the end of the season, this number could
develop in a range between 130,000 people (in case of good rains)
and 315,000 people (in case of poor rains). The current projection
remains well below the modelled historical average of around
600,000 people affected by drought. It is important to note that
these estimates do not take into account non-drought related
factors to food insecurity.
The Gambia: Given that Africa RiskView’s estimates for the 2016
agricultural season in The Gambia suggest an above average WRSI
is likely to prevail throughout the country, the model currently
estimates that no people will be affected by drought at the end of
the season in November 2016. The modelled historical average is
around 100,000 people.
Mali: At the end of the 2016 agricultural season, Africa RiskView
estimates that around 530,000 people in Mali are affected by the
impact of dry conditions in southern Segou and northern Sikasso
regions in central Mali. This can be attributed to the localised
pockets of below average WRSI values discussed above. The
estimate remains below the modelled historical average of around
1 million people affected by drought in the country.
Senegal: As discussed above, Africa RiskView estimates that in
some areas of central Senegal planting conditions were not met.
In these areas, the model estimates that around 730,000 people
will be affected at the end of the season, which would be above
the modelled historical average of around 360,000 people. De-
spite the relatively high number of people affected, the modelled
drought impact is not as severe as the 2011 and 2014 droughts, of
which the latter led to a payout from ARC Ltd during the 2014/15
ARC Risk Pool.
ARC Risk Pool
Currently, seven countries form the 2016/17 ARC Risk Pool, name-
ly Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Niger
and Senegal.1 In Mali, the season just ended, however the trigger
for a payout from ARC Ltd was not reached, due to the overall
good performance of the 2016 agricultural season as modelled in
Africa RiskView. In the other insured countries in West Africa,
payouts are currently unlikely in Burkina Faso and The Gambia,
given the projected outcomes of the seasons, which are expected
to perform well. Finally, in Senegal, despite the higher than aver-
age number of people affected as modelled by Africa RiskView, a
payout is currently unlikely based on the risk transfer parameters
selected by the country, with the drought impact of this season
falling within the country’s retention layer.
ARC has been working with countries throughout the continent on
drought insurance since 2014/15 and is developing additional risk
insurance products for floods and tropical cyclones together with
its Member States. Countries interested in joining the ARC Risk
Pool usually go through a year-long engagement process which
involves the customisation of Africa RiskView by in-country tech-
nical experts with support from the ARC Secretariat, the definition
of an Operations Plans that outlines the assistance to be provided
to vulnerable populations in the case of a payout by the ARC
Insurance Company Limited, as well as the creation of structures
and processes that allow for the quick disbursement of the pay-
outs and the activation of the pre-defined Operation Plans.
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | NOVEMBER 2016
1) Some of these countries are still in the process of defining their participation in the ARC Risk Pool.
For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org
The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a special-
ised agency of the African Union designed
to improve the capacity of AU Member
States to manage natural disaster risk,
adapt to climate change and protect food
insecure populations.
Africa RiskView is the technical engine of
ARC. The software uses satellite-based rain-
fall information to estimate the costs of
responding to a drought, which triggers a
corresponding insurance payout.
ARC Insurance Company Limited is the fi-
nancial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which
pools risk across the continent through issu-
ing insurance policies to participating coun-
tries.
About ARC:
Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this bulletin have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Af rica RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this bulletin is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, em-ployees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.
Note on Africa RiskView’s Methodology:
Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses
various satellite rainfall da-
tasets to track the progression
of rainy seasons in Africa. Coun-
tries intending to participate in
the ARC Risk Pool are required
to customise the rainfall com-
ponent by selecting the dataset
which corresponds the best to
the actual rainfall measured on
the ground.
Drought: Africa RiskView uses
the Water Requirements Satis-
faction Index (WRSI) as an indi-
cator for drought. The WRSI is
an index developed by the Food
and Agriculture Organisation of
the United Nations (FAO),
which, based on satellite rain-
fall estimates, calculates wheth-
er a particular crop is getting
the amount of water it needs at
different stages of its develop-
ment. To maximise the accura-
cy of Africa RiskView, countries
intending to take out insurance
customise the software’s pa-
rameters to reflect the realities
on the ground.
Affected Populations: Based on
the WRSI calculations, Africa
RiskView estimates the number
of people potentially affected
by drought for each country
participating in the insurance
pool. As part of the in-country
customisation process, vulnera-
bility profiles are developed at
the sub-national level for each
country, which define the po-
tential impact of a drought on
the population living in a spe-
cific area.
Response Costs: In a fourth
and final step, Africa RiskView
converts the numbers of affect-
ed people into response costs.
For countries participating in
the insurance pool these na-
tional response costs are the
underlying basis of the insur-
ance policies. Payouts will be
triggered from the ARC Insur-
ance Company Limited to coun-
tries where the estimated re-
sponse cost at the end of the
season exceeds a pre-defined
threshold specified in the insur-
ance contracts.
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | NOVEMBER 2016